(Defra Project Code GA0204) A climate change risk assessment for Wales January 2012 Contractors: HR Wallingford The Met Office Collingwood Environmental Planning Alexander Ballard Ltd AMEC Environment & Infrastructure UK Ltd (formerly Entec UK Ltd) Paul Watkiss Associates Metroeconomica Statement of use See full statement of use on Page iv. Keywords: Wales, climate change, risk assessment Research contractor: HR Wallingford Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BA Tel: +44 (0)1491 835381 (For contractor quality control purposes this report is also numbered EX 6473) Defra project officer: Welsh Government project officer: Dominic Rowland Nicola Britton Defra contact details: Welsh Government contact details: Adapting to Climate Change Welsh Government Programme Department for Environment and Department for Environment, Food and Sustainable Development Rural Affairs (Defra) 3rd Floor Area 3A CP2 Cathays Park Nobel House Cardiff 17 Smith Square CF10 3NQ London SW1P 3JR Tel: 020 7238 3000 Tel: 0300 060 3300 www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation http://www.cymru.gov.uk/newidhinsawdd Document History: Date Release Prepared Notes 01/02/11 0.1 HR Wallingford Draft for review 09/02/11 1.0 HR Wallingford Initial Draft for external review (internal ref: V7) 28/03/11 2.0 HR Wallingford Revised, updated and improved in response to review comments from Welsh Government 15/04/11 3.0 HR Wallingford Revised to include further review comments from Welsh Government 07/10/11 4.0 HR Wallingford Major revision 14/11/11 5.0 HR Wallingford Revised to include further review comments from Welsh Government 20/01/12 6.0 HR Wallingford Final release 24/01/12 7.0 HR Wallingford Minor edits. Final release re-issued. ii Climate Change Risk Assessment for Wales © Crown copyright 2012 You may use and re-use the information featured in this document/publication (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/open-government- licence.htm Any email enquiries regarding the use and re-use of this information resource should be sent to: [email protected]. Alternatively write to The Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 4DU. Printed on paper containing 75% recycled fibre content minimum. This report is available online at: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/government/ Climate Change Risk Assessment for Wales iii Statement of Use This report presents the findings of an assessment of climate change risks for Wales, which has been completed as part of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). Before reading this report it is important to understand the process of evidence gathering for the CCRA. The CCRA methodology is novel in that it has compared over 100 risks (prioritised from an initial list of over 700) from a number of disparate sectors based on the magnitude of the consequences and confidence in the evidence base. A key strength of the analysis is the use of a consistent method and set of climate projections to look at current and future threats and opportunities. The CCRA methodology has been developed through a number of stages involving expert peer review. The approach developed is a tractable, repeatable methodology that is not dependent on changes in long term plans between the 5 year cycles of the CCRA. The results, with the exception of population growth where this is relevant, do not include societal change in assessing future risks, either from non-climate related change, for example economic growth, or developments in new technologies; or future responses to climate risks such as future Government policies or private adaptation investment plans. Excluding these factors from the analysis provides a more robust ‘baseline’ against which the effects of different plans and policies can be more easily assessed. However, when utilising the outputs of the CCRA, it is essential to consider that Government and key organisations are already taking action in many areas to minimise climate change risks and these interventions need to be considered when assessing where further action may be best directed or needed. Initially, eleven ‘sectors’ from which to gather evidence: Agriculture; Biodiversity and Ecosystem services; Built Environment; Business, Industry and Services: Energy; Forestry; Floods and Coastal Erosion; Health; Marine and Fisheries; Transport; and Water. A review was undertaken to identify the range of climate risks within each sector. The review was followed by a selection process that included sector workshops to identify the most important risks (or opportunities) within the sector. Approximately 10% of the total number of risks (or opportunities) across all sectors were selected for more detailed consideration and analysis as part of the UK-wide assessment. The risk assessment used UKCP09 climate projections to assess future changes to these selected sector risks. Risks were, in general, analysed using single climate variables, for example temperature. A final Evidence Report draws together information from the eleven sectors (as well as other evidence streams) to provide an overview of risks from climate change to the UK. This report for Wales provides a similar overview of risks from climate change to Wales. The most important risks (or opportunities) for the UK were reviewed with Welsh stakeholders to determine which were important for Wales. This resulted in some risks being dropped from the list and others being added. Where risks have iv Climate Change Risk Assessment for Wales been added, these have not been analysed in detail, but are discussed within the broader context of risks from climate change to Wales. Neither this report nor the Evidence Report aims to provide an in depth, quantitative analysis of risk within any particular ‘sector’. Where detailed analysis is presented using large national or regional datasets, the objective is solely to build a consistent picture of risk for the UK, including Wales, and allow for some comparison between disparate risks and regional/national differences. The results presented here should not be used by the reader for re-analysis or interpretation at a local or site-specific scale. In addition, as most risks were analysed using single climate variables, the analysis may be over-simplified in cases where the consequence of climate change is caused by more than one climate variable (for example, higher summer temperatures combined with reduced summer precipitation). Climate Change Risk Assessment for Wales v vi Climate Change Risk Assessment for Wales Executive summary This climate change risk assessment for Wales has been produced as part of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). The CCRA is required under Section 56 of the Climate Change Act 2008, and must be laid before Parliament in January 2012. This report presents a national assessment of potential risks (and opportunities) from climate change facing Wales for the period to 2100. Its findings will inform the development of adaptation work in Wales. The assessment draws together and presents evidence from individual CCRA UK sector reports and recent research literature. The findings are presented for a range of possible future scenarios and include an indication of confidence in the results and areas where there are evidence gaps. The assessment is based on the UK Climate Projections which were published in 2009 (UKCP09). This provides projections of climate change for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s compared with the period 1961-90. For each epoch, a range of climate change scenarios have been considered. For example, projected changes for Wales under the 2050s Medium Emissions scenario include: An increase in mean winter temperatures of 2.0°C (very unlikely to be less than 1.1°C and very unlikely to be more than 3.1°C). An increase in mean summer temperatures of 2.5°C (very unlikely to be less than 1.2°C and very unlikely to be more than 4.1°C). An increase in mean winter precipitation of 14% (very unlikely to be less than 2% and very unlikely to be more than 30%). A decrease in mean summer precipitation of 17% (very unlikely to be less than a 36% decrease and very unlikely to be more than a 6% increase). In addition, sea level rise is projected to increase by between about 0.1m and 0.32m by the 2050s. These changes have been used to derive projections of changes in bio-physical systems, for example changes in river flows, aridity and water availability. These have been used together with the climate change projections to assess the potential impacts of climate change. It is important to note that extreme weather events are already a characteristic of the present day climate in Wales and dominate current climate risks. They will also continue to occur in the future, independent of climate change, due to the natural variability of the climate. A list of the most important climate change impacts and consequences for Wales was developed through a process of consultation with stakeholders. This takes account of the impacts that were considered to be most important for the UK as a whole, together with particular features and issues relevant to Wales. Particular features of Wales include the following: Much of the topography is steep with extensive mountain ranges and upland areas. Land use is dominated by grasslands, used for grazing livestock. Climate Change Risk Assessment for Wales vii Water sources are mostly surface water with little groundwater. The largest cities (Cardiff, Swansea and Newport) and a large proportion of business and industry are on the coast. Many of the main transport routes are along the coast or in river valleys. About 30% of the land area has environmental designations together with extensive areas of the surrounding sea. Tourism is an important element of the Welsh economy, both on the coast and inland.