Bracing Against Brent
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10 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 31 JANUARY 2020 > > mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95 nuccore/MN908947). This CHINESE WHISPERS per cent CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95 allows patients with flu-like The good side of bad per cent CI: 2.89-4.39) associated symptoms to rapidly tested with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in and diagnosed. How well-prepared is the world to contain and hopefully, cure, a new the reporting rate.” Even the low- Genome sequencing is the Not Bihar, says Gadkari er estimate of 2.2 implies the dis- first step in trying to generate disease? NCoV will be a test case ease is likely to spread rapidly. a vaccine. The genome has now The other paper, been sequenced from multiple This is despite desperate While the disease has flu-like ber is higher than 1, the disease (https://www.biorxiv.org/con- patients (including patients in attempts to quarantine Wuhan symptoms, there may be a peri- will spread unless patients are tent/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v Thailand). Genomes from later and other Chinese cities. The od of several days, when an isolated. This R0 number can 1, authored by a team from the infections can be compared to disease has arrived in India, infected person could display no vary widely. Influenza for Guangdong Provincial Center early ones to judge mutations. courtesy a native of Kerala who symptoms. The spread of infec- example, has a R0 of 2-3, while for Disease Control and The rate of mutation can tell was a student at Wuhan tious diseases depends on many measles has an R0 of 12-18. This Prevention says, “The average us how long the virus has been University. An estimated 40 mil- factors. One is, ironically, good means that a single measles incubation duration of 2019- in the “wild”, and where it orig- lion people are in a “no-travel” infrastructure. In the 21st centu- case could lead to 18 more nCoV infection was 4.8 days. inated. The genome of the zone in China. Many commer- ry, infectious cases can travel infections. A highly infectious The average period from onset Wuhan virus is 29,903 bases cial flights into China have been across the planet in a few hours. virus (like the common cold) of symptoms to isolation of long, and of very recent origin, cancelled. The UK is insisting on China with its excellent infras- could be non-fatal, and there- 2019-nCoV and SARS cases because it has low mutations. Highway Minister Nitin Gadkari two weeks quarantine for any tructure can therefore, “export” fore, not so scary. But an infec- were 2.9 and 4.2 days, respec- Scientists estimate that it’s (pictured) at a recent press meet was QUANTUM LEAP traveller out of China, India has a disease more easily than say, tious disease, with a high fatal- tively.” It continues “The 2019- likely to have originated in applauded for the remarkable job done also imposed quarantine. West Africa. We’ve already seen ity rate like say, Ebola, is really nCoV may have a higher pan- bats, jumped to some animal by his department in Haryana. But DEVANGSHU DATTA This is a zoonotic coron- this with SARS in 2003. frightening. demic risk than SARS. The commonly consumed in guests at the event were left scratching aviruses, a virus which can Medical statisticians judge As of now, there isn’t implemented public-health Wuhan, and then to humans. their heads because of a comment he mutate to be transmitted from how infectious a disease is, by enough data to judge either the efforts have significantly The human version is believed made later during the event. When the n December 31, 2019, animals and birds to human calculating a Basic Reprodu- R0, or the fatality rate of NCoV decreased the pandemic risk. to have “first appeared no ear- minister was asked whether his China informed the beings. For example, SARS, ction Number (R0 or R-nought with much accuracy. But However, more rigorous con- lier than October 30, 2019, and ministry could replicate its efforts in OWorld Health Organ-iza- which also started in China is in the jargon). This R0 indi- researchers are making prelim- trol and prevention strategies no later than November 29”. Bihar also, Gadkari replied in his tion that a new coronavirus was believed to have leapt species cates the average number of inary estimates. Two papers and measures are needed to There have been terrific characteristic impishness: “No, I don’t infecting people in Wuhan city from bats and civet cats, to people, one infected person with multiple authors have contain its further spread.” developments in genetic have the capability to do it.” What was (population 11 million), the capi- humans. It is assumed the may infect before he or she been released (neither is peer- Chinese scientists have research in the last decade with he implying? That his ministry didn’t tal of Hubei Province. The first Wuhan virus (now called the is cured (or dies). The higher reviewed yet). done a pretty good job of get- new tools like CRISPR being have the wherewithal to continue the case had been identified on Novel Coronavirus or NCoV) the R0, the more infectious One of these, (https:// ting data to the global scientif- discovered and deployed. How great work, or did he simply take a December 8. Till date, the new also leapt from an animal or the disease. www.biorxiv.org/content/10. ic community. By January 10, well-prepared is the world now swipe at the Bihar government? With virus has infected at least 8,000 bird to a human host and If the R0 is less than 1, the 1101/2020.01.23.916395v2) from China had sequenced and to contain and hopefully, cure, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar being people, caused at least 156 deaths human-to-human transmis- disease is self-limiting. It will a team of Hong Kong academics released the NCoV genome a new disease? NCoV will be a a Bharatiya Janata Party ally, a majority and spread to multiple countries. sions are now occurring. gradually die out. If the num- says “We estimated that the (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ test case. of those gathered were willing to rule out the second possibility. Azad-Adhir synergy Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad is Bracing against Brent the leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha while Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury is the party’s leader in the It is time for India to be imaginative about its energy strategy Lok Sabha, and recognised as the legislative leader of the principal up for rest of the imports. Indian oil first four months of FY2019 compared Opposition party. Azad lives at 5, refiners preferred West Asia crude as to 83.2 per cent during the correspond- South Avenue Lane, in New Delhi. it was more cost effective; however, ing period a year ago. On the other Until recently, Chowdhury lived in India stopped import of crude oil from hand, India has increased its oil Humayun Road, which is a little over Iran in May 2019 after the expiry of the import from the US. 5 km from South Avenue. At times, waiver granted by the US. It is interesting that the theatre of people in the Congress wish their Lok The US started supplying crude oil the current West Asia crisis is Iraq Sabha and Rajya Sabha strategies to India in 2017, and has become a which is another major supplier to could do with greater synergy. This major source since then. In FY 2018- India. The US sanctions and air strikes could be on the mend. According to 19, import from the US increased more are being seen in some quarters as a sources, Chowdhury is set to shift to than four-fold to 6.4 million tonne. strategic manoeuvre by the country to a bungalow across the lane where JAY CHEEMA & FAIZA KHAN There was a further increase of more establish itself as global supplier of Azad lives and the two neighbours than 72 per cent from April to August crude oil and natural gas. With Iran could get more opportunities to 2019 as the US supplied 4.5 million already closeted, there would be an exchange notes on the party’s tonne compared to the 2.6 million increase in the demand of oil which parliamentary strategy. ndia’s crude import bill in FY-2018- tonne in the same period in the pre- would lead to an increase in prices. 19, when the country had imported ceding year. While Brent crude prices shot up to I84 per cent of its crude oil require- Recent US sanctions have cut off around $70 a barrel due to the prevail- Fewer ‘Modi jackets’ ment, was the highest in the past five Iran from the international financial ing hostilities, since the beginning of The government on Thursday held the years. India spent $111.9 billion on oil system and devalued its currency, January, it has come down somewhat. customary all-party meeting that takes imports in 2018-19 compared to $87.8 decreased the Iranian oil exports to But if the prices shoot up again, there place before the start of a Parliament billion in FY 2017-18. Moreover, two- almost nil, scared off international is likely to be a heavy impact on India’s If the Brent crude prices shoot up again, there will be a huge impact on India’s session. The Budget session begins on thirds of the imports were sourced banks and suppliers even in sectors economy and energy security.