Does Renewable Energy increase Farmers’ Well-being? Evidence from Solar Irrigation interventions in Bangladesh

Monzur Hossain, Ph.D. Azreen Karim, Ph.D. Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) BIDS Research ALMANAC December 2nd, 2019

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• Background • SIPs: What is it good for? • Literature Review • Study Objective • Data & Sample Distribution • Methodology • Descriptive Statistics • Impact on rice production • Farmers’ Well-being: Contextualization • Conclusive & Policy remarks

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Green Infrastructure for Irrigations: An Overview of Solar Irrigation Projects (SIP)

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• Access to Energy – SDG 7 • Clean Energy • Green Productivity • Farmers’ Well-being • Resilient Agriculture

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• Suman (2018) - Impacts of solar irrigation pumps program in Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh states of India. - Implementation of solar-powered irrigation system has grossly increased the income of the farmers. - Reduced the cost of irrigation and wastage of water and has caused a change in cropping pattern in some areas. - Due to the usage of the solar-powered irrigation system, the pressure on general electrical grid has lowered, resulting export of surplus power to the grid. - Increased both the quality and quantity of the crops.

• Burney et al. (2016, 2010)

• Garg (2018) - Implementation of solar-power irrigation systems can lead to greater economic well-being by reducing costs incurred for use of coal and diesel for irrigation.

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The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of solar irrigation project on agricultural productivity in Bangladesh as well as to identify other beneficial roles of solar irrigation projects including energy consumption patterns in various irrigation modes, irrigation costs and reliability of irrigation.

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• A total of 1000 households have been systematically randomly selected and surveyed. Out of the total sample size, 500 households were solar irrigation adopted farmers (i.e. treatment) and the remaining 500 households were non-adopter (i.e. control) farmer households. Table : Distribution of Samples across Administrative Divisions Treatment (%) Control (%) Division

Dhaka 2 2 Chittagong 2 2 Rajshahi 6 6 Khulna 52 52 Rangpur 38 38 N 500 500

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• Descriptive Analysis

- Are there any systematic differences between the solar irrigation adopters and non- adopters with regards to the basic characteristics?

• Determinants of Access to Solar Irrigation

Given the importance of household access to Solar irrigation (SI) program, we examine here what determines households access to IDCOL’s SI program. We estimate the reduced form equation as follows:

푆푖 = 훼 + 훽 푋푖 + 휀푖

Where, Si is household’s SI adoption, Xi is a set of household and village level characteristics εi is unobserved random error term. 훽 are unknown parameters to be estimated. We consider the household’s adoption of SI as the outcome variable. Since adoption of SI is a dummy variable, we apply probit model to determine the factors that explain SI access.

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• Instrumental Variable (IV) Regression

푌푖푗푠 = 훼푋푖푗 + 훽푉푗 + 훾퐼푖푗푠 + 훿푃푖푗푠 + 휆푂푖푗푠 + 휀푖푗푠

Here, Y is the outcome, X is household level controls, V is village level controls, I is the dummy for mode of irrigation (solar), P is total plot size or plot fertility, and O is other inputs. Then we run -specific regression for above equation for aus, aman or boro season. More specifically, Yij represents seasonal (i.e. aus, amon and boro) total production for household i in village j; I indicates a dummy variable i.e. if the household use solar irrigation in different = 1, 0 otherwise; Xij denotes household-level characteristics (e.g. age, marital status, formal education, house ownership, land ownership, access to electricity, safe drinking water and sanitation); Vj indicates village-level characteristics which includes village population, households in village, total number of solar pump user, total number of diesel pump user, landless (below 0.5 acre), marginal land holder (0.5-1 acre), small land holder (1-2.5 acre), medium land holder (2.5-7.5 acre) etc.; α1 represents the coefficients for seasonal solar irrigation use, household-level and village-level characteristics respectively and εij captures the error term.

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Table: Number of Plots, Area and Yield Panel A: Aus season (- ) Category Treatment Control Difference p-value Number of plots harvested 1.62 1.65 -0.03 0.76 Area (acre) .71 .70 .01 0.8 Total production of crop (mound) 63749 48989 14759 0.04 Panel B: Aman season (-) Number of plots harvested 3.00 2.69 0.31 0.00 Area (acre) 1.35 1.26 0.09 0.16 Total production of crop (mound) 70129 66379 3749 0.34

Panel C: Boro Season (-) Number of plots harvested 3.17 2.80 0.36 0.00 Area (acre) 1.41 1.32 0.09 0.19 Total production of crop (mound) 261462 96410 165051 0.13

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Panel A: Aus season Category Treatment Control Difference p-value Irrigation cost (Tk. 1106.1 1138.89 -32.79 0.78 per bigha) Total input cost (Tk) 13770.95 12354.70 1416.26 0.41 Net returns (Tk) 42446.19 36304.57 6141.62 0.23 Panel B: Aman season Irrigation cost (Tk. 1217.43 1410.56 -193.13 0.00 per bigha) Total input cost (Tk) 22125.4 19445.96 2679.44 0.02 Net returns (Tk.) 47532.78 46543.58 989.20 0.74

Panel C: Boro season Irrigation cost (Tk. 2946.91 4129.73 -1182.82 0.00 per bigha) Total input cost (Tk) 31785.05 28203.68 3581.37 0.03 Net returns (Tk) 225074.1 66660.47 158413.6 0.15

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Panel A: Aus season

Category Treatment Control Difference p-value

Area with irrigation available (%) Area with irrigation availed (%) 85.67 92.05 -6.38 0.01

Distance between irrigation plant 96.74 74.51 22.23 0.06 and plot (ft.)

Number of days irrigated (days) 4.91 4.23 0.68 0.02

Number of hours irrigated per day 1.82 1.73 0.09 0.45 (hours)

Received adequate water (Yes; %) 41.91 45.17 -3.26 0.25

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Panel B: Aman season

Area with irrigation availed (%) 83.05 86.02 -2.97 0.03

Distance between irrigation plant 131.70 82.83 48.87 0.00 and plot (ft.)

Number of days irrigated (days) 8.65 7.49 1.17 0.00

Number of hours irrigated per day 1.74 1.90 -0.16 0.01 (hours)

Received adequate water (yes; %) 76.13 71.90 4.24 0.01

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Panel C: Boro season

Area with irrigation availed (%) 95.89 96.89 -1.00 0.15

Distance between irrigation plant 138.03 75.34 62.69 0.00 and plot (ft.)

Number of days irrigated (days) 32.91 27.89 5.02 0.00

Number of hours irrigated per day 1.94 2.00 -0.06 0.62 (hours)

Received adequate water (yes; %) 87.61 77.89 9.72 0.00

This presentation uses a free template provided by FPPT.com www.free-power-point-templates.com Impact of solar irrigation on Aus production VARIABLES log(net rice log(net non- log(net log(net rice p log(net non- log(net return per rice return per return per return per rice return per return per decimal) decimal) decimal) decimal) decimal) decimal) Plot-1 Plot-1 Plot-1 Plot-2 Plot-2 Plot-2 Solar irrigation 0.110 -1.405 -3.014 -0.470*** -0.102 -0.118 (0.187) (1.427) (1.909) (0.164) (0.151) (0.149) Adequacy of water*Solar 0.000 1.409 2.727 0.000 0.000 0.000 irrigation (0.000) (1.245) (1.711) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Type of land -0.105 -0.289*** -0.329*** -0.620*** -0.223*** -0.210** (1=Elevated, 2=medium- (0.133) (0.063) (0.079) (0.135) (0.077) (0.089) high, 1=medium-low) Received adequate water 0.122 -0.854 -1.146 (1=yes, 2=no) (0.453) (0.594) (0.769) Distance between source of -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.000 -0.001 irrigation and plot (ft) (0.001) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) No of irrigation days per 0.001 0.067*** -0.073*** 0.160*** 0.001 season (0.031) (0.013) (0.020) (0.031) (0.022) Hours of irrigation needed -0.191*** -0.064** -0.116*** -0.104 -0.098** per day (0.065) (0.025) (0.041) (0.064) (0.049) Plot fertility 0.848*** 0.319*** 0.219** -0.256 0.299** 0.129 (0.258) (0.083) (0.106) (0.191) (0.123) (0.135) Age of Farmer 0.008 0.001 0.003 -0.009* 0.003 0.000 (0.008) (0.003) (0.004) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) Marital status -0.102 -0.293 -0.465 -0.568 (0.206) (0.284) (0.325) (0.390) Formal education -0.162 -0.080 -0.079 0.469*** -0.177 -0.108 (0.178) (0.080) (0.100) (0.133) (0.122) (0.125) House ownership -0.977* -1.186 -0.081 -1.361** (0.568) (0.789) (0.602) (0.679) Land ownership 0.001 -0.000** -0.001* -0.003*** -0.000 -0.000 (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) Access to sanitation -0.550 0.663** 0.491 -0.341 1.801*** 0.761 (0.402) (0.295) (0.336) (0.265) (0.594) (0.478) Total household in village 0.003 -0.000 0.000 0.011*** -0.000 0.000 (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Total people in village -0.000 -0.000 0.000 -0.002*** 0.000 -0.000 (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) This presentation uses a free template providedTotal diesel by pumpFPPT.com user in -0.004** 0.000 -0.001 -0.024*** -0.001 -0.001** village (0.002) (0.000) (0.000) (0.005) (0.001) (0.001) www.free-power-point-templates.com Landless 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.003 -0.006*** -0.004* (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) Landowner (marginal) -0.002 -0.000 -0.001 0.009*** 0.001 0.001 (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Landowner (small) 0.006 -0.000 0.001 0.020*** 0.003* 0.003 (0.004) (0.001) (0.002) (0.006) (0.002) (0.002) Landowner (medium) -0.010** -0.003* -0.001 -0.008 -0.002 -0.001 (0.005) (0.001) (0.002) (0.005) (0.002) (0.002) Access to safe drinking -0.460 0.217 -3.537*** -0.030 water (0.847) (0.810) (0.725) (0.697) log(Total cost) 0.028 0.055*** (0.019) (0.021) Constant 5.646*** 7.940*** 8.333*** 13.738*** 5.064*** 7.669*** (1.592) (0.883) (1.338) (1.535) (0.988) (1.257) Observations 57 270 327 30 118 148 R-squared 0.480 0.416 0.112 0.749 0.419 0.201 Impact of solar irrigation on Aman production log(net log(net rice log(net log(net log(net log(net rice log(net return per return per non-rice return per return per return per non-rice VARIABLES decimal) decimal) return per decimal) decimal) decimal) return per All Plot-1 decimal) Plot-1 Plot-2 Plot-2 decimal) Plot-1 Plot-2 Solar irrigation 0.211 -0.826* 12.643*** -0.450 -1.155* -1.196** 4.142*** (0.441) (0.426) (0.809) (0.483) (0.606) (0.489) (1.484) Adequacy of -0.325 0.621* -12.723*** 0.236 0.913* 0.975** -- water*Solar irrigation (0.417) (0.367) (0.698) (0.415) (0.527) (0.425) Total hours of 0.004 -0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.004 -- irrigation per season (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) Type of land -0.064** 0.451** -0.130*** -0.043 -0.033 -- (1=high, 2=medium, (0.025) (0.187) (0.029) (0.031) (0.027) 3=low) Received adequate 0.216 -0.174 9.980*** -0.093 -0.330** -0.319*** -- water (1=yes, 2=no) (0.184) (0.146) (0.664) (0.158) (0.149) (0.120) Distance between -0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 -- source of irrigation (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) and plot (ft) No of irrigation days -0.010** -0.001 0.087** -- per season (0.005) (0.002) (0.043) Hours of irrigation -0.021 0.002 0.111** -- per day (0.023) (0.003) (0.046) Plot fertility 0.080*** -0.915*** 0.061* 0.096*** 0.050 -1.383** (0.030) (0.250) (0.035) (0.037) (0.031) (0.648) Age of Farmer -0.003* -0.000 0.008 -0.001 -0.002 -0.000 0.054*** (0.002) (0.001) (0.010) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.019) Marital status 0.044 -0.058 -0.021 0.103 0.057 (0.109) (0.086) (0.104) (0.113) (0.093) Formal education -0.089** -0.089*** -1.245*** -0.093*** -0.103*** -0.091*** 0.131 (0.038) (0.031) (0.194) (0.036) (0.038) (0.032) (0.363) House ownership -0.155 -0.157 -0.379 -0.265* -0.217 -0.140 -0.494 (0.165) (0.136) (0.356) (0.155) (0.185) (0.169) (0.607) Land ownership 0.000 -0.000 0.003*** -0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002* (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) Access to safe 0.037 0.062 0.108 -0.086 -0.137 drinking water (0.220) (0.172) (0.208) (0.230) (0.190) Access to sanitation -0.247** 0.096 -3.741*** -0.017 -0.283*** 0.106 -4.161*** This presentation uses a free template provided by FPPT.com (0.097) (0.076) (0.521) (0.090) (0.095) (0.087) (0.576) Total household in 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.000* 0.000 0.000 0.005 www.free-power-point-templates.com village (0.000) (0.000) (0.007) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.007) Total people in -0.000 -0.000 0.001 -0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003*** village (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) Total diesel pump -0.000 -0.000** -0.006*** -0.000** -0.000* -0.000 -0.008*** user in village (0.000) (0.000) (0.002) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.003) Landless 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 0.000 -0.001 -0.000 0.010 (0.000) (0.000) (0.007) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.013) Landowner -0.001* -0.000* 0.000 -0.001** -0.001* -0.001** -0.034** (marginal) (0.000) (0.000) (0.010) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.016) Landowner (small) 0.002*** 0.001** -0.043*** 0.001** 0.002** 0.002*** -0.071*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.008) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.013) Landowner (medium) -0.000 0.000 0.049*** -0.000 -0.000 -0.000 0.085*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.012) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.019) log(Total cost) 0.053** -0.017 (0.026) (0.017) Constant 6.109*** 6.220*** 0.000 5.994*** 7.035*** 6.432*** 9.965*** (0.375) (0.283) (0.000) (0.396) (0.403) (0.322) (1.250) Observations 830 757 24 806 671 652 19 R-squared 0.076 0.036 0.964 0.092 0.040 -0.007 0.924 Impact of solar irrigation on Boro production VARIABLES log(net log(net log(net log(net log(net log(net log(net log(net log(net return rice non-rice return rice non-rice return rice non-rice per return return per return return per return return decimal) per per decimal) per per decimal) per per decimal) decimal) decimal) decimal) decimal) decimal) Plot-1 Plot-1 Plot-2 Plot-2 Plot-3 Plot-3 Plot-1 Plot-2 Plot-3 Solar irrigation 0.557 -0.504** 9.571*** -1.067** - 0.859 -1.743** 0.068 -0.217 (0.392) (0.250) (3.384) (0.486) 0.864*** (3.315) (0.763) (0.370) (0.141) (0.300) Adequacy of -0.618 0.408* - 0.990** 0.790*** -1.013 1.685** -0.083 0.000 water*Solar (0.384) (0.245) 9.420*** (0.474) (0.297) (3.294) (0.754) (0.370) (0.000) irrigation (3.324) Total hours of -0.000 0.001* 0.001 irrigation per (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) season Type of land -0.017 0.017 -0.132 -0.020 -0.020 0.008 0.084* 0.047 0.249** (1=high, (0.038) (0.026) (0.280) (0.035) (0.024) (0.131) (0.044) (0.029) (0.104) 2=medium, 3=low) Received adequate 0.420*** 0.010 1.012 -0.199 -0.203* -0.143 -0.285 0.157 -0.189 water (1=yes, (0.149) (0.105) (0.621) (0.151) (0.113) (0.276) (0.214) (0.120) (0.256) 2=no) Distance between 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 -0.000 0.001* -0.000* -0.000 -0.001 source of irrigation (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) and plot (ft) No of irrigation - 0.003* 0.125*** - 0.003 0.141*** -0.003 0.005*** 0.122*** days per season 0.008*** (0.002) (0.040) 0.006*** (0.002) (0.025) (0.002) (0.002) (0.030) (0.002) (0.002) Hours of irrigation 0.014 0.005 0.063 -0.053** -0.021** -0.044 -0.052 0.002 -0.055 per day (0.028) (0.003) (0.081) (0.023) (0.010) (0.043) (0.033) (0.014) (0.041) Plot fertility -0.042 -0.002 -0.189 -0.073* - 0.175 0.018 -0.030 0.233* (0.045) (0.032) (0.282) (0.043) 0.083*** (0.150) (0.052) (0.033) (0.140) (0.029) Age of Farmer -0.000 -0.000 -0.013 0.000 0.000 0.002 -0.001 0.001 -0.006 (0.002) (0.001) (0.012) (0.002) (0.001) (0.006) (0.002) (0.001) (0.005) Marital status 0.023 -0.024 1.904* 0.096 0.031 0.987* -0.008 0.033 0.343 (0.135) (0.094) (1.062) (0.121) (0.075) (0.599) (0.155) (0.093) (0.456) Formal education -0.015 -0.043 -0.131 0.048 0.027 0.106 -0.080 0.019 -0.186 This presentation uses a free template provided by FPPT.com(0.048) (0.033) (0.276) (0.046) (0.030) (0.153) (0.054) (0.033) (0.141) House ownership 0.005 0.071 -0.331 0.133 0.145 -0.659 0.165 0.114 www.free-power-point-templates.com (0.216) (0.157) (1.052) (0.255) (0.169) (0.847) (0.383) (0.208) Land ownership 0.000 0.000** -0.001 0.000 0.000*** -0.000 0.000* 0.000** 0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Access to safe -0.186 0.067 -0.800 -0.039 -0.005 -0.043 -0.073 -0.047 drinking water (0.289) (0.207) (1.479) (0.259) (0.154) (0.311) (0.208) (0.619) Access to -0.089 0.026 -1.141* 0.059 0.093 0.593 0.064 0.032 sanitation (0.116) (0.082) (0.619) (0.116) (0.079) (0.369) (0.151) (0.082) Total household in -0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000* 0.000 0.002** 0.001** -0.000 0.002*** village (0.000) (0.000) (0.002) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) Total people in 0.000 -0.000 -0.000 - -0.000 -0.000** -0.000** 0.000 - village (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) 0.000*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) 0.000*** (0.000) (0.000) Total diesel pump 0.000 -0.000 0.000 -0.000 -0.000 -0.001 -0.000 0.000** 0.000 user in village (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) Landless -0.000 -0.000 0.004 -0.000 -0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.000 0.007*** (0.001) (0.000) (0.005) (0.001) (0.000) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) Landowner 0.000 -0.000 0.002 0.001** 0.001** 0.001 0.001** 0.001 0.001 (marginal) (0.000) (0.000) (0.002) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.001) (0.000) (0.001) Landowner (small) 0.003*** 0.000 -0.005 0.002* -0.001 -0.003 0.001 0.000 -0.006* (0.001) (0.001) (0.005) (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) Landowner - -0.000 -0.006 - 0.000 -0.007** -0.003** -0.001 -0.005* (medium) 0.003*** (0.001) (0.006) 0.003*** (0.001) (0.004) (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) Constant 6.231*** 5.713*** 6.166** 6.231*** 5.906*** 4.720*** 6.069*** 5.410*** 5.252*** (0.437) (0.299) (2.520) (0.408) (0.270) (1.183) (0.572) (0.344) (0.883) Observations 907 748 159 779 601 178 500 374 126 R-squared 0.077 -0.009 -0.333 0.010 -0.154 0.296 -0.107 0.143 0.458 Farmers’ Well-being : Contextualization

• Costs-effectiveness • Productivity - longer-term income potential • Time-use • Carbon Emission

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• Costs of solar irrigation is relatively lower compared to diesel irrigation.

• Solar irrigation significantly increases agricultural production when adequacy of water has been prevalent despite inconsistencies also prevail across seasons.

• Reliability, accessibility and affordability of solar irrigation prompted farmers to harvest in more areas and plots in relatively longer seasons like Aman and Boro that contributed to higher yield.

• Our findings suggest that adoption of SIPs are largely driven by sponsor initiatives, village meeting and peer effects respectively.

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• On the policy note, inconsistencies in our findings further indicate scope for further cost-reduction contributing to longer-term income potential of the farmers.

• More connectivity; particularly with the Grid electricity.

• Cautiousness should be there with regards to arsenic contamination.

• Enhancing scope for further improvement in irrigation options (including gender sensitivity) using renewable energy for farmers.

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