Sevenoaks District Council Retail Study Update July 2007

www.gvagrimley.co.uk Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1 2. POLICY CONTEXT ...... 3 3. RETAIL AND LEISURE TRENDS...... 15 4. COMPETING CENTRES: SUB-REGIONAL CONTEXT ...... 20 5. QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SEVENOAKS ...... 28 6. QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SWANLEY, EDENBRIDGE, WESTERHAM AND THE VILLAGES...... 41 7. SEVENOAKS QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT ...... 49 8. SMALLER CENTRES QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT...... 57 9. SCOPE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT ...... 61 10. CONCLUSIONS ...... 66

Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLANS

Plan 1: Household Telephone Survey Area

Plan 2: Sevenoaks Retail Study: Study Context Area

Plan 3: Comparison Goods Expenditure Leakage to Competing Centres

Plan 4: Comparison Goods Expenditure Leakage to Competing Centres (Zone 1-5)

Plan 5: Bluewater Comparison Goods Market Share

Plan 6: Bromley Comparison Goods Market Share

Plan 7: Tunbridge Wells Comparison Goods Market Share

Plan 8: Dartford Comparison Goods Market Share

Plan 9: Maidstone Comparison Goods Market Share

Plan 10: Existing Retail Provision: Foodstores and Retail Parks

Plan 11: Sevenoaks Town Centre Comparison Goods Market Share

Plan 12: Food Store Provision: Village Centres

Plan 13: Drive Time Isochrones from Key Centres

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 – Market Share and Trade retention of Competing Centres

Appendix 2 – Retailer Requirements

Appendix 3 – PMRS Count flows

Appendix 4 – Customer View Graphs

Appendix 5 – District Centre Boundary Plans and Audits

Appendix 6 – Convenience Modelling

Appendix 7 – Comparison Modelling

Appendix 8 – District Settlement Survey

Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 GVA Grimley was appointed by Sevenoaks District Council in October 2004 to prepare a Retail Study of the District. The aim of the study was to inform and guide retail planning in the District and in particular, to inform the preparation of the District Council’s Local Development Framework (LDF) and guide future decision making.

1.2 Following Inspector’s decisions elsewhere in the country, the importance of a complete and up-to-date evidence base to support LDF’s has been stressed. As a result, in April 2007, Sevenoaks District Council appointed GVA Grimley to prepare a Retail Study Update.

1.3 The District Council’s requirements for the original study were as follows:

• To comply with Government guidance in PPS6 on retailing and town centres;

• To assist in devising policies and assessing planning applications having an impact on the main centres within the District, out of centre retail provision and local shops;

• To provide a monitoring protocol in accordance with PPS6 and the LDF process;

• To examine the issues involved in the loss of rural services and to subsequently provide recommendations on how to address the needs of rural residents;

• To advise on the planning applications to extend the out of centre Sainsbury’s and Tesco stores in Sevenoaks; and

• To consider the development of a large site in Edenbridge town centre for retail development.

1.4 The requirements for the Retail Study Update were as follows:

• To update the retail capacity forecasts to cover the end of the proposed LDF period up to 2026 taking into account anticipated changes to shopping patterns and the use of the Internet;

• To consider the effect of the opening of the new Edenbridge Relief Road on Edenbridge town centre; and

• To consider the contribution of the market in Swanley district centre.

1.5 Our proposed approach to the study and the update was based upon seven work areas including:

i. An analysis of the relevant national, regional and local planning policies and an assessment of current retail trends and their implications for the future scale and distribution of retailing in the District.

ii. The preparation and commissioning of a household telephone survey, in order to assess the current shopping patterns within the District.

iii. An analysis of the main locations competing with Sevenoaks and in particular their influence on the Sevenoaks catchment area.

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Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

iv. A qualitative review of existing retail provision throughout the District, drawing on the key indicators identified in paragraph 4.4 of PPS6.

v. A quantitative modelling exercise to forecast the retail capacity of the District’s town centres over the period to 2026 and to investigate a range of future development scenarios.

vi. If the potential for further retail development has been identified, to examine the scope to accommodate this throughout the District.

vii. To draw together the results of all of the analysis to provide a set of recommendations and advice to inform the preparation of the forthcoming LDF and to enable consideration of the opportunities and proposals that the Council is currently considering.

1.6 This Report is supported by a series of appendices. These include the retail capacity modelling exercise for convenience goods and comparison goods and our qualitative work on the centres in the District.

Structure of the Report

1.7 The next three sections of the Report set the context, outlining the current planning policy position for Sevenoaks, key trends in retailing, and our analysis of the main competitors influencing shopping patterns within Sevenoaks. In Sections 5 and 6 we present our qualitative assessment of the retail needs of the key centres within the District. Sections 7 and 8 include our quantitative analysis and present our forecasts of the capacity for further floorspace within the District. In Section 9, we summarise our assessment of the scope for new retail development in the District. Section 10 draws together the findings of our work into a series of recommendations and conclusions.

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Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

2. POLICY CONTEXT

2.1 In this section, we examine the key points of relevance from national and regional planning policy, and the adopted Sevenoaks Local Plan and emerging Core Strategy.

National Policy Context

Delivering Sustainable Development

2.2 The Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act received Royal Assent on 13th May 2004. The Act sets a statutory objective for development plans to contribute to the achievement of sustainable development, placing sustainability objectives at the heart of the planning system.

2.3 Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 1; Delivering Sustainable Development, issued in February 2005, sets out the overarching planning policies on the delivery of sustainable development through the planning system. The guidance confirms that sustainable development is the core principle underpinning planning, clarifying that the concept is a simple idea of ensuring a better quality of life for everyone now and for future generations.

2.4 The Government makes clear that planning should facilitate and promote sustainable and inclusive patterns of urban and rural development through a number of initiatives, including the need to ensure that new developments provide good access to jobs and key services for all members of the community. In promoting sustainable development, the Government reaffirms through the guidance that, amongst other things, the planning system needs to:

• Recognise that economic development can deliver environmental and social benefits;

• Make suitable land available for development in line with economic, social and environmental objectives - ensuring that suitable locations are available for industrial, commercial, retail, public sector, tourism and leisure development, so that the economy can prosper;

• Promote urban and rural regeneration to improve the well being of communities, improve facilities, promote high quality and safe development and create new opportunities for the people living in those communities. Promote mixed use developments for locations that allow the creation of linkages between different uses and can thereby create more vibrant places;

• Provide improved access for all jobs, health, education, shops, leisure and community facilities, open space, sport and recreation, by ensuring that new development is located where everyone can access services or facilities on foot, bicycle or public transport rather than having to rely on access by car, while recognising that this may be more difficult in rural areas;

• Promote the more efficient use of land through higher density, mixed use development and the use of suitably located previously developed land and buildings. Bring vacant and underused previously developed land and buildings back into beneficial use to achieve the targets the Government has set for development on previously developed land.

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2.5 PPS1 elevates the importance of design in the achievement of sustainable development. The document emphasises that good design ensures attractive, usable, durable and adaptable places and is a key element in achieving sustainable development, adding that ‘good design is indivisible from good planning’. PPS1 highlights that good design goes beyond aesthetic considerations and must also address connections, integration and linkages, and ensure safe, successful and inclusive settlements while offering a full range of opportunities and facilities to society.

2.6 PPS1 highlights the importance of community involvement to planning and the achievement of sustainable development. One of the principles of sustainable development is to involve the community in developing the vision for its area through the concept of ‘front loading’, i.e. seeking early consensus. The Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 requires regional planning bodies and local planning authorities to prepare a Statement of Community Involvement, in which they set out their policy on involving their community in preparing regional spatial strategies, local development documents and on consulting on planning applications.

2.7 PPS1 widens the remit of local authorities who now have responsibility for reporting, on an annual basis, the extent to which policies set out in LDF’s are being achieved. Keith Hill (then Planning Minister) commented that under the new planning system the ability to produce various local development documents, as opposed to one local plan document, allows authorities to respond quickly to new issues and changing priorities for sustainable development in their area. A Good Practice Guide sets out how the new local plan system should be monitored.

2.8 While PPS1 sets the key objectives for the planning system, the guidance does not replace or override other national policies and should be read in conjunction with other statements of national planning policy.

PPS6: Planning for Town Centres, March 2005

2.9 PPS6 covers town centres and the main town centre uses. It states that the Government’s key objective is to promote their vitality and viability by:

• Planning for the growth and development of existing centres; and

• Promoting and enhancing existing centres, by focusing development in such centres and encouraging a wide range of services in a good environment, accessible to all.

2.10 There are other Government objectives which need to be taken into account in the context of the above key objectives, and these are:

• Enhancing consumer choice by making provision for a range of shopping, leisure and local services, which allow genuine choice to meet the needs of the entire community, and particularly socially excluded groups;

• Supporting efficient, competitive and innovative retail, leisure, tourism and other sectors, with improving productivity; and

• Improving accessibility, ensuring that existing or new development is, or will be, accessible and well served by a choice of means of transport.

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2.11 PPS6 also states that wider Government policy objectives are relevant, insofar as they would not be inconsistent with the key objectives highlighted above. These include promoting social inclusion; regeneration of deprived areas; promoting economic growth; sustainable patterns of development; transport choices; and high quality and inclusive design.

2.12 PPS6 states that local planning authorities should actively plan for growth and change in town centres over the period of their development plan documents by:

• Selecting appropriate existing centres to accommodate the identified need for growth by:

• making better use of existing land and buildings, including where appropriate, redevelopment; and

• where necessary, extending the centre.

• Managing the role and function of existing centres by, for example, promoting and developing a specialist or new role and encouraging specific types of uses in some centres; and

• Planning for new centres of an appropriate scale in areas of significant growth or where there are deficiencies in the existing network of centres.

2.13 Where possible the guidance states that growth should be accommodated by more efficient use of land and buildings within existing centres. Local planning authorities should aim to increase the density of development, where appropriate. Opportunities within existing centres should be identified for sites suitable for development or redevelopment or where conversions and change of use will be encouraged for specific buildings or areas. Local planning authorities should also seek to ensure that the number and size of sites identified for development or redevelopment are sufficient to meet the scale and type of need identified.

2.14 Where growth cannot be accommodated in identified existing centres, local planning authorities should plan for the extension of the primary shopping area if there is a need for additional retail provision or, where appropriate, plan for the extension of the town centre to accommodate other main town centre uses.

2.15 Where existing centres are in decline, PPS6 states that local planning authorities should assess the scope for consolidating and strengthening these centres by seeking to focus a wider range of services there, promote the diversification of uses and improve the environment. Where reversing decline is not possible, local planning authorities should recognise that these centres may need to be reclassified at a lower level within the hierarchy of centres, and reflect this revised status in the policies applied to the area.

2.16 The statement clarifies that the key tests of need, appropriate scale, impact, sequential approach and accessibility, apply equally to new development, renewal of extant consents, variation of planning conditions and changes of use. In the context of development control, the policy statement requires all applicants to demonstrate appropriate scale and accessibility. Need, sequential and impact tests vary according to the type and location of development.

2.17 It is not necessary to demonstrate the need for retail proposals within the primary shopping area of a town centre. This is designed to ensure planning constraints on town centre schemes are less onerous. In reality, a need assessment is likely to be required on larger schemes to enable an informed judgement in relation to the scale and impact of development. Need must be demonstrated for any application for a main town centre use, including retail, which would be in an edge-of-centre or out-of-centre location.

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2.18 In terms of the sequential approach, site selection should be applied to all development proposals for sites that are not in an existing centre, nor allocated in an up-to-date development plan document. The sequential approach requires that locations are considered in the following order:

• First, locations in appropriate existing centres where suitable sites or buildings for conversion are, or are likely to become, available within the development plan document period, taking account of an appropriate scale of development in relation to the role and function of the centre;

• Edge-of-centre locations, with preference given to sites that are or will be well connected to the centre;

• Out-of-centre sites, with preference given to sites which are or will be served by a choice of means of transport and which are close to the centre and have a high likelihood of forming links with the centre.

2.19 Proposals to extend an individual store, in any location by less than 200 sq m gross are exempt from the sequential approach. For larger proposals, PPS6 advises Local Planning Authorities to take into account any ‘genuine difficulties’, which the applicant can demonstrate are likely to occur in operating the applicant’s business model from the sequentially preferable site in terms of scale, format, car parking provision and the scope for disaggregation.

2.20 In terms of the appropriate scale of development, local planning authorities should ensure that the scale of opportunities identified are directly related to the role and function of the centre and its catchment. The aim should be to locate the appropriate type and scale of development in the right type of centre, to ensure that it fits into that centre and that it compliments its role and function in the defined retail hierarchy.

2.21 The Government continues to seek to reduce the need to travel, to increase the use of public transport, walking and cycling and reduce the reliance on the private car, to facilitate multi purpose journeys and to ensure that everyone has access to a range of facilities. Jobs, shopping, leisure and tourist facilities and a wide range of services should therefore be located in town centres wherever possible and appropriate, taking full advantage of accessibility by public transport.

2.22 In assembling sites, PPS6 states that in planning for growth in town centres, local planning authorities should allocate sufficient sites to meet the identified need for at least the first five years from the adoption of their development plan documents, although for large town centre schemes a longer period may be appropriate to allow for site assembly. Local planning authorities should consider the scope for site assembly using their compulsory purchase powers, to ensure that suitable sites within or on the edge-of-centres are brought forward for development, including sites that are under-utilised, such as car parks and single storey buildings, which could be redeveloped for multi storey, mixed use development.

The White Paper – Planning for a Sustainable Future

2.23 While the policies outlined above remain the latest statement of Government policy for retail and town centres, it is also relevant to note the recommendations of the recent Government White Paper ‘Planning for a Sustainable Future’. This restates the Government’s commitment to promoting the vitality and viability of town centres, and continues to advocate a proactive approach to managing the role and function of town centres, including extending the boundary where that makes sense.

2.24 The White Paper also indicates that:

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2.25 ‘it is possible under the current policy for a new retail development on the edge of the town centre to be refused because there is an existing or out of town development which meets the identified need even though the new retail development would bring wider benefits and help support the town centre’.

2.26 The White Paper sets out two clear objectives: -

• To support current and prospective town centre investment; and

• To ensure that planning promotes competition and consumer choice and does not unduly or disproportionately constrain the market.

2.27 The Paper indicates the Government intends to review the current approach in PPS6 to assessing the impact of proposals outside town centres, and to replace the need and impact tests of a new test which has a strong focus on a town centre first policy, which promotes competition and improves consumer choice. The provisions of The White Paper will be subject to consultation in Summer 2007 and feed into new guidance which will not be finalised before Spring 2008.

Planning Control of Mezzanine and Other Internal Floorspace Additions

2.28 The creation of additional floorspace within buildings was brought under control in May 2006 following consultation on the ODPM’s report: ‘Planning Control of Mezzanine and Other Internal Floorspace Additions’ (March 2005). This was in response to concerns that the development of mezzanine floors in large retail stores significantly increased the available floorspace, thereby undermining the objectives of planning policy for the regeneration of town centres.

2.29 Installation of additional floorspace within a building, such as building a mezzanine floor, did not previously fall within the definition of development of the Town and Country Planning Act 1990. Permission was only required if the original permission for the building was granted subject to a planning condition precluding a mezzanine floor or restricting the maximum floorspace and that floorspace would be exceeded. Many older permissions, granted before 1995/96 did not include maximum floorspace conditions.

2.30 The provision incorporated within the 2004 Act does not seek to prevent such development, but to allow authorities to determine such proposals, in the same way as they would for store expansion involving an external expansion of floorspace, which would require planning permission. The proposals will apply only to increases in internal gross floor space above 200 sq m gross, to prevent smaller, town centre businesses from being adversely affected.

PPS12: Local Development Frameworks, 2004

2.31 PPS12 sets out the Government’s policy on the preparation of Local Development Documents (LDDs) which will comprise the Local Development Framework (LDF). The LDF is not a statutory term, however it sets out, in the form of a ‘portfolio’, the LDDs which collectively deliver the spatial planning strategy for the local planning authority’s area. The programme for production of the LDF, including profiles of individual documents, is available in the Local Development Scheme (LDS).

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2.32 The LDF will be comprised of LDDs including statutory Development Plan Documents (DPDs) and non- statutory supplementary planning documents which expand policies set out in a development plan document or provide additional detail: -

• DPDs: have been subject to independent examination and have the weight of development plan status as defined by Section 38(6) of the Act: and

• Supplementary Planning Documents (SPDs): are not subject to independent examination and do not have development plan status. They must not be used to allocate land or contain policies that should be subject to independent examination.

2.33 The LDF will also include the Statement of Community Involvement (SCI), the Local Development Scheme (LDS) and the annual monitoring report. Furthermore, local planning authorities should also include any local development orders and/or Simplified Planning Zones which have been adopted. The LDF, together with the Regional Spatial Strategy, provides the essential framework for planning in the local authority’s area.

2.34 The LDS is a public statement of the local planning authority’s programme for the production of the full suite of LDDs. Local planning authorities must submit their first LDS to the Secretary of State within six months of commencement of Part 2 of the Act (The Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004) (July 2004).

2.35 The LDF should include the following statutory development plan documents:

• Core Strategy;

• Site Specific Allocation of Land; and

• Area Action Plans (where needed).

2.36 The Core Strategy should set out the key elements of the planning framework for the area. Once adopted, all other DPDs must be in conformity with it. The Core Strategy should normally be the first DPD to be produced, except where the local planning authority has up-to-date saved policies and where the priority in the LDS is the preparation of an Area Action Plan or other DPD.

2.37 Sevenoaks District LDF is intended to comprise a Core Strategy, Balanced Communities DPD and Generic Development Control Policies DPD. The Core Strategy will set out the vision and spatial strategy for the district, with allocations and designations contained within the Balanced Communities DPD, including any that could contain an element of retail use.

Use Classes Order 2005

2.38 Proposals for radical changes to the Use Classes Order (UCO) were first announced in Parliament in November 2003. The Planning Minister at the time, Keith Hill, claimed that the new look UCO would be welcomed, stating, ‘these will give local authorities more control to manage town centre development while minimising the negative impacts of a proliferation of pubs, takeaways and night clubs’. The proposed changes took affect on 21st April 2005.

2.39 The reforms at present are limited to the ‘A’ (retail) Use Class and to Night-clubs. Only restaurants and cafes will retain their A3 classification, with a permitted change to A1 or A2 Use Classes, but with all other changes

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of use requiring planning permission. Under the reforms, pubs and bars will be reclassified under a new and separate use Class A4, with a permitted change to A1, A2 or A3 Use Classes, with all other changes requiring planning permission.

2.40 Takeaways have been reclassified under a new and separate Use Class A5, with a permitted change to A1, A2 or A3 Use Classes, with all other changes requiring planning permission. Nightclubs have been classified as sui generis and are excluded from the Use Classes. This brings nightclubs under specific and separate planning control. Planning permission will be required for any change of use to or from nightclub use.

2.41 In addition to these changes further amendments include the reclassification of Internet cafes as an A1 use, Retail Warehouse Clubs are re-affirmed as sui generis use (i.e. constituting a class of its own), and motor vehicle showrooms no longer enjoy permitted development rights to change to A1. Keith Hill has told Parliament that the Government has decided not to amalgamate the A1 and A2 classifications, a move which was suggested in 2002.

PPG13: Transport, March 2001

2.42 PPG13 reaffirms the Government’s policy position towards retail development, as outlined in PPS6. In particular, paragraph 35 of the guidance endorses the need to promote the vitality and viability of existing town centres, which should be the preferred locations for new retail and leisure developments. Furthermore, it reaffirms the Government’s requirements for retail development to adopt a sequential approach, with preference given to town centre sites, followed by edge of centre and, only then, out-of-centre sites in locations which are (or will be) well served by public transport.

2.43 PPG13 notes that if there is clearly an established need for such development and it cannot be accommodated in or on the edge of existing centres, it may be appropriate to combine the proposal with existing out-of-centre developments, provided that improvements to public transport can be negotiated. PPG13 requires that development plans set maximum levels for parking. The guidance makes it clear that there should be no minimum standards for development, other than for parking for the disabled.

Regional Policy Context

South East Regional Spatial Strategy

2.44 Regional policy is set out in the Draft Regional Spatial Strategy for the South East of England (RSS), March 2006. The Plan was submitted to Government on 31st March 2006. An Examination in Public was held from November 2006 until March 2007 and it is anticipated that the final plan will be approved by the Government in 2008. Once adopted, the plan will replace Regional Planning Guidance 9 (RPG9).

2.45 The South East Plan will form the new Regional Spatial Strategy for the South East region in accordance with the requirements set out in the 2004 Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act. The plan sets out a vision for the future of the South East region to 2026, outlining the main challenges facing the region.

2.46 The South East has a complex network of town centres, which are vital to the region’s economy. The plan seeks to distribute growth to middle and lower order centres supporting a balanced network of centres, which

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is not dominated by the largest centres. The plan identifies primary and secondary regional centres and Sevenoaks is designated as a Secondary Regional Centre.

2.47 The plan states that town centres will continue to be the focal point for the development of a mix of uses including retail, leisure, office, culture, residential and commercial uses, taking into account:

• The need to support the pre-eminent town centre’s functions, viability and capacity to accommodate change and growth;

• The need to respect the historic character, environment and cultural value of existing town centres;

• Where it would assist the regeneration of vulnerable centres, new investment of the appropriate level and scale should be promoted;

• Where it would support sustainability objectives including the role of regional hubs;

• The potential impact on the vitality and viability of nearby town centres; and

• The impact on traffic and the need to minimise reliance on the car/lorry and promote public transport accessibility.

2.48 The plan supports the sequential approach as set out in PPS6 and also states that development should be appropriate to the centre’s role within the network.

2.49 The RSS also contains a sub-regional policy framework for the London Fringe, which covers a large area of Surrey from the London border to the towns of Guildford, Woking and Redhill and is one of the most densely settled parts of the region. The key drivers for the sub-region are:

• Maintaining the role of the Green Belt;

• Realising the potential of urban areas to deliver sustainable development;

• Supporting sustainable economic growth;

• Supporting the role of the regional hubs of Guildford, Regiate, Redhill and Woking; and

• Respecting and developing the character and identity of towns and the countryside.

2.50 The plan states that spending growth in this catchment is projected to be strong due to its economic and retail strengths. Policy LF7 seeks to maintain the polycentric settlement pattern with town and district centres being the focus for retailing, employment, leisure and community uses. It notes that investment in development, infrastructure and services in Sevenoaks should allow Sevenoaks to maintain its role in the town centre network whilst being consistent with its scale.

Kent and Medway Structure Plan (Adopted July 2006)

2.51 Kent County Council and Medway Council jointly produced the Kent and Medway Structure Plan, which was adopted on 6th July 2006. The role of the Structure Plan is to provide a strategic planning framework on development, transport and environmental matters over the period 2001 – 2021. The Structure Plan will be superseded by the RSS, expected during 2008.

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2.52 The Plan acknowledges that although West Kent is one of the most prosperous sub-areas in the sub-region, it also contains a large number of rural communities that are remote and lack services or facilities. With regards to Sevenoaks, the emphasis is on maintaining and securing a sustainable balance of job opportunities and housing in order to reduce the need to travel or commute. The plan notes the prosperity of Sevenoaks is closely linked with that of London with a significant proportion (33%) of the population commuting into central and outer London.

2.53 The plan also states that the diversification of the Sevenoaks economy through tourism and leisure will be pursued, together with development in the knowledge and technology sectors. Attention is also given to securing the viability of Sevenoaks and Swanley town centres through the enhancement of the quality of their retail and other consumer services.

2.54 The plan notes that town centres in Kent fulfil different roles according to the size and composition of their retail ‘offer’ and their services. The plan sets out a strategic retail hierarchy which is closely related to the overall settlement hierarchy. Sevenoaks is designated as a Principal Town Centre, which are defined as centres which provide the main focus for shopping, local government and other services. Principal Town Centres are considered to offer greater physical capacity and investment potential. Swanley is designated as an Urban Service Centre and Edenbridge and Westerham are designated as Rural Service Centres. These centres serve smaller catchments.

2.55 Policy EP14 (Development at the Hierarchy of Strategic Centres) states that the Structure Plan’s town centre hierarchy will be safeguarded. The policy supports proposals which enhance the quality, range and choice of shopping and/or expand or diversify their service, business or leisure activities. It also states that development should achieve a high standard of design and enhance the visual quality, functioning and environment of town centres.

2.56 With regard to Urban and Rural Service Centres, the plan states that an appropriate scale of retail and service provision will be supported where it will underpin the role, vitality and viability of these centres.

Sevenoaks District Local Plan, March 2000

2.57 The Sevenoaks District Local Plan was adopted in March 2000, and sets out the Local Planning Authority’s policies and proposals for the development and use of land, in the period 1996 – 2006. A number of policies as part of the 2004 Act have not been saved as the LDF progresses. The saved policies are listed in the text below.

2.58 The Local Plan was adopted after the publication of PPG6, and takes into consideration the Government’s objectives to sustain and enhance the vitality of existing centres; focus development in locations that maximise the opportunity to use alternative means of transport; and to maintain an efficient, competitive and innovative retail sector. Chapter 11 of the adopted Local Plan deals with shopping policies.

2.59 The plan notes within this section that retail circumstances in West Kent are complex due to the overlapping catchment of Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells, as well as the impact of the other larger centres including Bromley, Croydon, Dartford and the Lakeside and Bluewater regional shopping centres.

2.60 The plan draws on (paragraph 11.5) the previous Household Interview Survey undertaken in 1994 which revealed that the four main town centres in the district Sevenoaks, Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham

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attract more convenience than comparison trade. It notes that Sevenoaks captures less than 4% of clothing shopping, compared to Bromley (23.2%) and Royal Tunbridge Wells (17.3%). Its states that the competing centres in turn limit the extent to which the District’s towns can be expected to expand.

2.61 In summary, the objectives of the Local Plan in relation to shopping are:

• to assess the essential requirements and future trade potential of different retail sectors;

• to improve the quality, range and diversity of the retail service offered in town centres;

• to ensure that new forms of retail development outside town centres do not undermine the vitality and viability of existing town centres;

• to ensure access to retail developments is likely to enable a choice of transport modes;

• to protect local centres and village shops;

• to control proposals for farm shops and garden centres.

2.62 These objectives are supported in policy S1. This policy also seeks to expand and diversify opportunities for business, service and leisure uses appropriate and complementary to the retail use, providing they do not displace Class A1 uses from defined primary shopping frontages.

2.63 New retailing proposals are dealt with in paragraph 11.14. It states that priority should be given to securing new development in the District’s established town centres particularly Blighs Meadow in Sevenoaks, at Swanley town centre and the Tannery Site in Edenbridge.

2.64 The importance of sustaining local shops and village centres is identified in paragraph 11.16. It states that within the urban areas of Sevenoaks and Swanley there are a number of smaller but important local centres, which should be fostered and encouraged. Ensuring the viability of rural areas is also acknowledged, particularly the role village shops play in such areas. The plan considers that the loss of village shops can have a particularly severe impact on the communities they serve. Therefore, policy S3A restricts the change of use of existing shop premises in local and village centres from Class A1 to any other uses, unless it would provide for an essential local service and/or sufficient retail space would remain to meet local needs.

2.65 Chapter 12 deals specifically with the District’s main urban areas and rural towns. It covers Sevenoaks, Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham. It acknowledges that Sevenoaks is the main retail centre in the district and with regard to the retail hierarchy in West Kent, it functions as a district shopping centre. The Local Plan objectives for Sevenoaks conform with the general shopping objectives outlined above. These include securing the vitality and viability of the town centre, enhancing the built environment and character of the centre, whilst securing the most effective use of land and finally improving the centres overall accessibility.

2.66 Within the designated town centre of Sevenoaks the plan seeks to encourage a diversity of uses. It does, however, specify that the retail function of the primary shopping area should not be undermined. Therefore policy ST2 states that within the primary retail frontages the Local Planning Authority will only permit ground floor uses within class A1, although A2 and A3 uses will be permitted elsewhere in the centre.

2.67 The plan refers to a previous Hillier Parker Retail Study which assessed the need for further retail development in the District. The Plan indicates that:

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• the need for convenience goods retailing in the Sevenoaks area had been met for the foreseeable future, following the development of out of centre superstores, by Sainsbury’s at Otford Road and the Tesco store at London Road. The Tesco proposal site was allocated in the Local Plan as policy ST1B.

• the need for out of centre retail warehousing would be met for the first half of the plan period following a retail warehouse development at the Vestry Estate, Otford Road.

• the Blighs Meadow scheme would meet the capacity for town centre comparison goods retailing. The Hillier Parker Retail Study, identified capacity to accommodate 60,000 sq.ft (5,574 sq m) of additional comparison goods floorspace by the year 2001. Policy ST6 identified land at Blighs Meadow for comprehensive redevelopment, including retail, other commercial, leisure, residential and community uses.

2.68 With regard to Swanley, the plan makes it clear that one of the objectives of the District Council is to improve and revitalise Swanley town centre so it can respond to competitive pressures. The Council therefore seeks to provide an enhanced range and choice of shops and services. This will involve encouraging proposals for the redevelopment of vacant and underused land, whilst adopting a flexible approach towards change of use to ensure full occupancy of all premises. As such the plan does not define any primary shopping frontages.

2.69 The plan identifies a number of proposals for retail development within Swanley town centre. First, the former ‘Parade Site’ which lies on the main pedestrian thoroughfare between the north and south sides of the town centre. The plan identifies that a primary shopping use of the ground floor units would be appropriate. The southern part of this site is currently being redeveloped for residential with retail uses on the ground floor.

2.70 The Local Plan indicates that Edenbridge functions as a small market town. The plan considers that given the town’s limited catchment it is vulnerable to potential impact from out of centre retail uses. The Local Plan consequently seeks to resist such uses and instead promotes (Policy EB1) proposals to improve the range, quality and diversity of shops.

2.71 The Local Plan identifies the Edenbridge Tannery as the principal proposal for the market town, with retail uses including a supermarket and some small shop units together with business units and residential development. This has now been developed to provide a small free standing Co-op supermarket.

2.72 The Local Plan defines Westerham as a small service centre. It is designated as a Conservation Area providing facilities for the daily needs of the local community. The main objective relating to new retail development in Westerham is to maintain and improve the economy of the town centre, by providing an enhanced range of shops and services.

2.73 Conservation Areas are dealt with in chapter 4. The primary shopping areas of Sevenoaks, Edenbridge and Westerham are all designated as Conservation Areas. Policy EN23 encourages development to respect local character and enhance the appearance of the District by stating that proposals for development or redevelopment within or affecting Conservation Areas should be of positive architectural benefit to its setting.

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Summary

2.74 The central objective of PPS6 is to promote the vitality and viability of town centres by planning for the growth of existing centres, through expansion of existing boundaries if necessary, and enhancing existing centres by promoting them as the focus for new development.

2.75 New planning regulations now control the development of internal mezzanine floorspace, and the Use Classes Order has recently been revised to enable local authorities to manage uses more effectively, thus protecting the vitality and viability of town centres.

2.76 The South East Plan seeks to create a balanced network of vital and viable town centres, with appropriate levels of development depending on the centre’s role within the network – Sevenoaks is designated as a Secondary Regional Centre.

2.77 The Sevenoaks District Local Plan was adopted in March 2000. The plan identifies a number of sites for new retail development in Sevenoaks, Swanley and Edenbridge, however, these have now largely come forward. The plan also defines the primary shopping frontage in each centre, with the exception of Swanley where a range of uses are encouraged in order to promote revitalisation.

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3. RETAIL AND LEISURE TRENDS

3.1 To put our assessment of the quality of existing provision and the need for additional floorspace into context, it is relevant to consider the wider economic and social trends likely to influence retailing in Sevenoaks. A number of trends are likely to have a bearing on the future pattern of retail provision in the District, and the opportunities arising from development proposals. This section examines key trends and drivers for change in the retail industry. We outline the key national trends in retailing and service provision of particular relevance to Sevenoaks drawing from a range of published data sources, including research by Verdict Analysis, Mintel and the New Economics Foundation.

Demographics

3.2 Over the last 20 years the UK population has increased at about 0.3% pa but the number of households has increased by nearly three times that rate, as household size has decreased with smaller families, more divorces, people living longer etc. The population is also ageing. These trends are forecast to continue and will affect spending habits – how much we spend, on what and where.

3.3 Over the next 20 years the over 60’s age group is expected to grow by 5.3m or 41% and the Under 60’s age group by only 4%. Older shoppers have a younger mindset than in the past, are more fashion aware and financially better off as a result of house price growth as well as income growth (but pensions will be a concern). They will have more time to shop, will spend more on DIY and gardening and will expect good customer service. Younger shoppers will have higher University fees to pay, will experience higher housing costs, will be more computer literate and spend more on-line, and will spend more on entertainment/leisure so they may have less to spend in the retail property sector.

3.4 Demographic statistics provided by Kent County Council suggest that over the LDF period up to 2026 the 65- 84 age group will grow by 47% and the 85+ age group will grow by 106.8%. In contrast, the 0-15 and 25-44 age group is expected to reduce by 14 and 19.5% respectively.

Income and Expenditure

3.5 Incomes and expenditure have shown strong growth over the last 20 years, with retail expenditure growing faster than incomes. At the same time working hours for many, but by no means for all employees, have lengthened leading to a cash rich, time poor consumer. Overall retail expenditure has increased by about 4% pa in real terms over the last 20 years, with most of this growth on comparison goods rather than convenience goods, where growth has been less than 1% pa. Comparison goods growth has been close to 5% pa over the last 30 years, over 6% pa over the last 20 years and even stronger over the last 10 years. These strong trends are not expected to continue in the foreseeable future due to current high levels of consumer debt, an already low savings ratio and a weaker housing market. Over the next 5-10 years the latest economic forecasts suggest that comparison goods expenditure growth will be about 3.5-4.5% pa.

3.6 With longer working hours for many, shop opening hours in the larger centres have been extended and Sunday is now one of the strongest trading days in the week. This has implications for where retail

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expenditure is concentrated and the nature of some shopping trips which are considered to be a quasi leisure experience. Longer working hours, plus the Internet and broadband technology have lead to a huge growth in non-store shopping, but from a small base. Total non-store trading including mail order and the internet is currently estimated to be about 2.5% of convenience goods spending and about 6% of comparison goods spending. The latest forecasts suggest continuing strong growth over the next 5-10 years before a plateau is reached at about double current proportions of expenditure.

Sales Density Increases

3.7 Although hard quantitative evidence is limited, comparison businesses in particular have over time increased sales densities by achieving improvements in productivity in the use of floorspace. PPS6 (paragraph 2.34) requires that quantitative need/capacity assessments have regard to a realistic assessment of such improvement. Analysis of past data is difficult as over the last 20 years sales densities increases have been affected by changes in the use of retail floorspace, with higher value space-efficient electrical goods replacing lower value space intensive goods, the growth in out-of-centre retailing, a number of one-off events like Sunday Trading and longer opening hours, and the very strong growth of retail expenditure relative to the growth in floorspace. In the future growth rates of 1.5-2.5% pa seem likely to be achieved for comparison goods, with minimal growth in sales densities for convenience goods.

Employment

3.8 Over the last 20 years retail expenditure has increased at about 4% pa, but retail employment has increased much more slowly. Total employees in employment have increased from 2.1 million to 2.9 million, an increase of 1.75% pa. However, this growth has been in part time employees. Full time equivalent (FTE) employment has hardly increased at all, from about 2 million to 2.2 million, a 0.5% pa increase. Over the next 15 years Experian Business Strategies expect an overall decline in FTE employment with only a marginal increase in part time employment.

3.9 The ONS annual survey of hours and earnings (ASHE) highlights that in Sevenoaks a large proportion its population are Managers and Senior Officials (19.2%) compared with the national average for Great Britain of 15.0%. The District also has a larger than average proportion of Administrative and Secretarial workers, 19.5% compared with the national average of 12.3%. Furthermore, 13.7% of people work in the process plant and machinery industry which is below the national average (18.8%). These figures suggest that Sevenoaks contains a larger than average proportion of people in the AB demographic category.

Location

3.10 Strong income and expenditure growth has affected retailing in another important way – the rise in car ownership and mobility. Over the last 25 years the number of households owning one or more cars has increased from about 55% to about 75% and the number with two or more cars has nearly trebled from 11% to 30%. Households are now much more mobile than they were and therefore their choices of where to shop and the distances they can travel are much greater. These trends will continue but the rate of change may well diminish.

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3.11 To put the Sevenoaks District in context, the 2001 Census suggests that about 85% of households in the Sevenoaks District own one or more cars, with about 45% owning two or more.

3.12 Increased mobility and affluence has favoured larger centres over smaller centres. As a result larger centres have increased in size and importance relative to smaller centres which has further reinforced the attraction of larger centres to more mobile shoppers. Smaller centres have, therefore, lost market share and have seen much less new development than the overall rate of expenditure growth would imply. This is recognised by PPS6, which urges local authorities to be pro-active in trying to encourage development in smaller centres.

3.13 Increased mobility and affluence has also stimulated out-of-centre development, which has grown much more rapidly than town centre development. Over the last 20 years the majority of retail development has been in edge or out-of-centre locations. This has lead to increasingly restrictive planning policy in favour of town centres over the last 10 years, but only recently has the growth in out-of-centre development started to slow. This slow down is expected to continue, but Verdict still expect sales at out-of-centre locations to increase at a faster rate than at in-centre locations.

3.14 PPS6 reinforces the Government’s town centre first objectives. The sequential site test is still a cornerstone of retail planning policy, favouring town centre sites and necessitating consideration of the disaggregation of retail park proposals so that smaller sites are considered. However, it is also recognised that individual retailer’s business models are also relevant. Disaggregation of a retailer’s proposed store does not now need to be considered if the operator can demonstrate it would adversely affect their business model.

Size of Units

3.15 The growth of multiple traders and increased competition between companies has meant that the retail structure is increasingly dominated by large companies requiring larger shop units. Shopping centres and out-of-centre development that has been able to accommodate this demand for larger sized units (typically 500-2,000 sq m or larger) have grown in importance, reinforcing the trend of higher order centres and out-of- centre retailing growing in relative importance, i.e. polarisation in the retail hierarchy.

3.16 The growth in the size of stores has caused a contraction in the number of shop units and consumer choice. This is particularly evident in the food sector, with a marked decline in the number of smaller and more specialist food retailers (greengrocers, butchers, fishmongers, bakers etc), and a large increase of superstores. These trends may well weaken in the future due to possible market saturation of large foodstores and concerns over lack of competition due to the market dominance of a few key multiples.

Foodstores

3.17 A by product of the restriction of new development of large foodstores is the growth in applications to extend existing stores and the changing composition of floorspace within existing foodstores. There is an increasing emphasis on the sale of comparison goods at the expense of convenience goods, as expenditure growth rates for comparison goods are much higher than for convenience goods and margins are greater, although sales densities are often lower. This trend poses an increasing threat to smaller centres, as larger foodstores will increasingly sell a wider product range of day-to-day convenience and comparison goods and services.

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Shopping and Leisure

3.18 Due to increased affluence and mobility, and the rise of the internet, shoppers no longer merely shop to satisfy needs, they increasingly shop to satisfy wants as well. Retailing in the higher order centres and the more attractive smaller centres is changing and arguably becoming more of a quasi leisure experience. Leisure spending growth is continuing to outstrip that of retail. Quality restaurants, coffee shops, cafes and bars, as well as health and fitness centres and multiplexes in larger centres, are therefore important to attract shoppers and encourage longer stays and higher spending. Better integration of retail and leisure facilities mutually benefits both sectors. Pedestrianised streets and covered retail areas are also important in attracting shoppers, as is the overall attractiveness of the town centre, along with good accessibility and car parking.

3.19 A number of factors have helped drive the growth of leisure provision in town centres. Planning policy is important as is the fact that urban living is fashionable; town centres can offer consumers a much more vibrant atmosphere in which to eat and drink; and they also offer a much wider choice of leisure venues, allowing more spontaneous decisions. For bars, restaurants and health & fitness clubs, the attraction of the town centre is ‘daytime trade’ and the ability to capitalise on proximity to businesses and shoppers.

Arts and Culture

3.20 Culture is a wide ranging term which brings together a range of interests and activities enjoyed by people including sports, media, entertainment, the arts, museums, libraries and tourism. Culture also encompasses the built heritage, parks and countryside. Overall, it is described as allowing people to celebrate local distinctiveness and traditions – the values that make a community what it is.

3.21 Research by the Arts Council in 2003 looking at attendance, participation in and attitudes towards the arts revealed that levels of attendance and participation in arts and cultural activities have remained high against a backdrop of increased competition from other leisure activities. The proportion of people attending at least one arts or cultural event rose from 79% in 2001 to 80% in 2003.

Summary

3.22 National retail trends indicate a continued growth in incomes and expenditure, albeit not at such strong levels as in the last 15-20 years. The growth in expenditure is focused on comparison goods with virtually no increase in convenience goods expenditure.

3.23 Increased car ownership has resulted in greater household mobility and therefore the choices for shopping centres to visit and the distances that can be travelled are much greater. Internet shopping has grown phenomenally in the last few years and looks set to continue in certain sectors.

3.24 The foodstore operators have continued to evolve their formats and offer. With restrictions on out-of-centre stores growing, and changing socio-economic trends, several large operators have returned to the High Street with small convenience stores. Operators are also seeking to extend their comparison goods offer, turning stores into variety or mini department stores. This trend in out-of-centre locations could pose a threat to

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smaller centres, where the large out-of-centre stores become one stop shopping destinations negating trips to the town centres.

3.25 There has been a continued polarisation towards larger centres and the provision of larger stores in these larger centres. Where smaller centres have been unable to diversify their offer or create niche markets they have suffered. The focus on urban renewal has increased demand for town centre sites for a wider range of land uses.

3.26 Since the mid-90s, despite higher rents, there has been a steady trend, driven by central Government policy, towards building new leisure schemes in town/edge of centre locations. Mixed-use retail and leisure development has proved to be a real growth area in town centres. These trends present significant opportunities and challenges to Sevenoaks’ centres. Sevenoaks is well placed to benefit from forecast spending growth, but it needs to adapt if it is to capitalise on these opportunities, and maintain and enhance its position within the wider region.

3.27 In the commercial leisure sector, changing social and demographic trends and increased personal disposable income will fuel sustained growth in mainstream commercial leisure activities, including cinemas, bars, restaurants and post deregulation, significant additional investment in the gambling and entertainment industry. As a consequence of market trends and policy, many main stream leisure activities, including the cinema, are increasingly returning to traditional town centre locations.

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4. COMPETING CENTRES: SUB-REGIONAL CONTEXT

4.1 This section reviews the geographical context of Sevenoaks within the sub-region. We examine the effects of the key centres competing with Sevenoaks on its catchment area, the level of competition these centres provide and the extent to which they are likely to increase their influence over the District in the future.

4.2 The Household Telephone Survey highlights the key centres competing with Sevenoaks (Plan 2). These include Bluewater, Bromley, Dartford, Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells. The location of these centres in relation to Sevenoaks is illustrated on Plan 2. These centres have the greatest influence on shopping patterns in the Sevenoaks catchment area. The market share and trade draw analysis of competing centres is attached in Appendix 1.

4.3 We have drawn on a number of data sources in this Section, including PROMIS, Experian Goad Retail Centre Rankings, Focus Property Intelligence database and EGi, and have had discussions with each of the local authorities to clarify the position regarding development in the pipeline. Our assessment of each of the competing centres identifies the main retail offer and the extent to which this is likely to change and influence shopping patterns in the Sevenoaks District in the future.

Ranking of Competing Centres

4.4 The shopping population rank of each of the competing centres has been derived from PROMIS (National Survey). It is evident from Table 4.1 that Bromley is the strongest competitor in terms of the size of the shopping population i.e. the number of shoppers travelling there for their main comparison goods shopping. Bromley is, however, smaller in terms of floorspace than Maidstone and Bluewater regional shopping centre. We do not have available a shopping population ranking for Sevenoaks or Dartford, however Sevenoaks is considerably smaller than the other competing centres and as such is unlikely to attract significant numbers of comparison goods shoppers.

Table 4.1: Competing Centres, Sub-Regional Context (Sorted by Shopping Population Rank Position)

Shopping Population Distance from Sevenoaks Centre Floorspace sq. m gross Rank Position (Km)

Royal Tunbridge Wells 85 108,000 16

Maidstone 76 141,000 24

Bromley 19 115,000 19

Bluewater - 157,000 18

Dartford - 73,000 21

Sevenoaks - 30,000 -

Source: Promis Centre Reports

4.5 For the 2007 Update, we have examined the shopping Venue rankings produced by the Javelin Group as shown in Table 4.2 below. The town’s rank is obtained using a scoring system, which takes account of the

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presence in each location of multiple retailers, anchor stores, fashion operators and non-fashion multiples. The score attached to each operator is weighted to reflect their overall impact on shopping patterns.

Table 4.2: Javelin Rankings 2005 - 2006

Centre Rank 2005 Rank 2006

Bromley 30 30

Bluewater 19 24

Maidstone 62 32

Tunbridge Wells 64 61

Dartford 231 208

Sevenoaks 501 408

Source: Javelin VenueScore Retail Rankings

4.6 The Javelin rankings show that Maidstone has strengthened its position in the rankings following the opening of the Fremlin Walk Shopping Centre in 2005. Tunbridge Wells and Dartford also saw slight increases in rank between 2005 and 2006. Sevenoaks also experienced a rise in its ranking from 501 in 2005 to 408 in 2006, which we understand is attributed to the arrival of several multiple retailers in the centre, including M&S Simply food. The rank of a centre can also change if other centres in a similar position decline slightly.

4.7 Drawing on national retail trends, discussed in Section 3, and retail rankings, it is important in the context of this section to acknowledge the significant polarisation of retail activity over the last twenty to thirty years. A relatively small number of large dominant regional and sub-regional centres are taking a growing proportion of total spend. In this context, Sevenoaks and the smaller centres will need to continue to improve and diversify their retail offer to ensure they maintain and strengthen their position. They are however a different level of centre to the key competitors and as such are unlikely to draw trade away from these centres in the future, rather they will need to maintain their existing market shares.

Bluewater Shopping Centre

4.8 Bluewater Shopping Centre is located approximately 17 miles north of Sevenoaks at the junction of the M25 and the A2. Bluewater is a large out of centre regional shopping destination. It opened in March 1999 and has a floorspace of approximately 157,000 sq m gross.

4.9 Bluewater Shopping Centre is located to the north east of survey Zone 15, which is the furthest north of all Zones within the study area (Plan 1). It is evident from analysis of the household telephone survey that Bluewater Shopping Centre draws circa £157.2m of comparison goods expenditure from the Sevenoaks Study area, equating to approximately 13.7% of total available comparison goods expenditure. A large proportion of this trade is, unsurprisingly, derived from Zone 15 (£50.5m) and Zone 13 (£28.5m).

4.10 Bluewater is Sevenoaks’ strongest competitor. In the core survey area, i.e. Zones 1-5, Bluewater retains circa £21.4m of comparison goods expenditure, which is higher than other competing centres in the sub region. A relatively high proportion is derived from Zone 1 (£9.3m or approximately 5.9% of total available comparison goods expenditure). These trade flow patterns are illustrated on Plan 5.

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4.11 Bluewater Shopping Centre is a triangular design, with an anchor store at each corner. These stores are John Lewis, Marks & Spencer and House of Fraser and are connected by three, two-level shopping malls. Each of the malls has a distinct theme, with high fashion and lifestyle stores on The Guild Hall Mall, family retailers on The Rose Gallery and high street fashions on The Thames Walk.

4.12 Overall Bluewater has an extensive range of fashion, footwear and lifestyle stores. There are also a range of restaurants and cafés and other leisure facilities, such as a Showcase cinema and a Molton Brown Day Spa. Bluewater has more than 330 stores and 40 cafés, bars and restaurants. It is open seven days a week and has free car parking for 13,000 cars. As one of the premier shopping destinations in Europe, Bluewater provides a significant level of competition for Sevenoaks. The retail offer is however so distinct from Sevenoaks that it is likely to be visited more for occasional destination shopping trips rather than for everyday or weekly shopping trips.

4.13 A key issue for Bluewater is the level of congestion, particularly at peak shopping times. In the summer 2004, Dartford Borough Council approved a change of use of the management centre to A1 retail, this will provide a further 850 sq m of retail floorspace. There are however no proposals to extend or alter the shopping centre in the future and as such it is unlikely to increase its influence on the Sevenoaks catchment over the Sevenoaks LDF period.

Bromley

4.14 Bromley is located about 19 miles to the north-west of Sevenoaks on the A21. Of the key competitors, it is the most inaccessible for residents of Sevenoaks. Notwithstanding this, Bromley is one of London’s key metropolitan centres, with an extensive catchment area which is only limited by Croydon to the west and Bexleyheath to the east. It has an estimated primary catchment population of 627,000 people.

4.15 Bromley is located to the north west of the Sevenoaks study area, the closest survey Zones are Zones 16 and 7. The household telephone interview survey indicates that Bromley draws circa £85.8m of comparison goods expenditure from the Sevenoaks study area (Appendix 1). This equates to approximately 7.5% of total available comparison goods expenditure within Zones 1-16. Within the core survey area (Zones 1-5), Bromley draws £11.3m of comparison goods expenditure (Plan 4). In general, Bromley has the greatest influence on Zone 16, where it draws £38.4m of comparison goods expenditure, i.e. 44.7% of its total trade draw from within this Zone (Plan 6).

4.16 Bromley has approximately 115,000 sq m gross of retail floorspace, much of which is located on Bromley High Street. This linear shopping area was pedestrianised in 1996 and according to the latest Promis Report it provides an attractive shopping environment stretching from Elmfield Road in the south to the Market Square in the north.

4.17 Bromley has two managed shopping centres. The larger of these is The Glades which opened in 1991. It is situated to the east of the High Street and is anchored by a large Marks & Spencer store and a Debenhams department store. It is also includes other major high street multiples such as Boots, Lilywhites and River Island and up-market fashion retailers such as Jane Shilton, Viyella, Karen Millen and Austin Reed. Bromley’s other managed centre, the Bromley Mall is smaller and partially covered. It is located in a secondary shopping area to the south of The Glades.

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4.18 Bromley Mall originally opened in 1975 and is now being substantially redeveloped and reconfigured to create a number of larger units. Whilst this will not add a significant amount of additional retail floorspace, the new scheme will create a number of large stores and includes a health and fitness club on the upper floors. The first phase, directly opposite The Glades was completed in 2005 and phase two, linking back to the High Street is nearing completion.

4.19 The retail offer in Bromley is supplemented by a range of retailers on the High Street. The offer at the northern end is stronger and includes Bhs, Next, Mothercare, WH Smith and Topshop/Topman. In the Market Square at the northern most end of the High Street, there are a number of quality independent retailers and the former Allders department store has been taken over by Primark. Towards the southern end of the High Street the retail offer starts to deteriorate, although there are several furniture shops such as Habitat, Wesley Barrell, Magnet, Multiyork and Sofas UK. The former House of Fraser department store located towards the southern end of the High Street closed in 2004. The front part of the store has been refurbished and is now occupied by TK Maxx.

4.20 Convenience food store provision in Bromley includes a large Waitrose adjacent to Bromley South railway station, a Sainsbury’s superstore north of Market Square and a Marks & Spencer Food Hall.

4.21 Aside from the changes to Bromley Mall, other major proposals in the pipeline for Bromley town centre include a small extension to The Glades Shopping Centre to create a larger unit for H&M. This is being constructed and is due to open in 2008. An Area Action Plan is also being prepared for Bromley town centre, which identifies future development sites with the potential for up to 49,980 sq m of new retail floorspace. Plans are also underway for a leisure based scheme including a cinema at Westmoreland Road

4.22 Bromley also has a strong level of retailer demand with a range of above market fashion retailers and several department store operators seeking space in the centre. This coupled with the emerging Area Action Plan could significantly enhance the retail offer in Bromley and could impact on current shopping patterns within the Sevenoaks catchment area in the future. We understand that although House of Fraser has closed its Bromley store and is due to open a new store in Croydon, the company is still interested in securing an alternative site in Bromley.

Dartford

4.23 Dartford is located approximately 21km to the north of Sevenoaks in close proximity to junction 1A of the M25. The centre’s proximity to the M25 ensures that it is easily accessible for the residents of the district, particularly those living in the north. However, the opening of Bluewater only 2km away has provided significant retail competition. Dartford is located on the northern edge of survey Zone 15 (Plan 1).

4.24 The Household Telephone Survey reveals that Dartford draws circa £58.3m of comparison goods expenditure from within the defined Sevenoaks Study Area (Plan 3), which equates to circa 5.1% of total available comparison goods expenditure. Within the core survey area (Zone 1 to 5) Dartford attracts approximately £3.2m of comparison goods expenditure (Plan 4). This is a fairly small amount and reflects the more limited attraction of Dartford. Predictably, the centre draws the most trade from Zone 15 (Plan 8).

4.25 Dartford is compact, built around the main linear High Street which includes the multiples of WH Smith, Argos, Bon Marche and Iceland. The main national multiples are located within the managed shopping centres, The

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Orchard and The Priory. The retail offer in The Orchard includes Boots the Chemist, Primark, Virgin Megastore, JD Sports and it is anchored by Safeway with a floorspace of 2,230 sq m net. The centre opened in 1989 and has retained its original floorspace of 10,219 sq m ever since.

4.26 The Priory Centre is located off Spital Street towards the south west of the High Street. The centre opened 1974 and contains a floorspace of 13,471 sq m. A Sainsbury’s store of approximately 2,710 sq m and a Wilkinson store anchor the centre, other multiples include Peacocks and Mothercare.

4.27 Tesco are seeking to develop a major mixed-use development on Lowfield Street, adjacent to Dartford town centre. Tesco’s previous application to develop the site was dismissed by the Secretary of State in July 2006, on the grounds that the environmental costs of the scheme outweighed the benefits of regenerating the town centre and providing a substantial number of homes in a sustainable location. A renewed scheme is now proposed although this is at the early stages and a planning application has not yet been submitted.

4.28 Land Securities have also submitted a planning application for the Eastern Quarry site, the largest potential development site in the Thames Gateway sub region. The outline application was submitted in February 2004 and comprises mixed use development including approximately 250,836 sq m of office space, 4,450 private residential units, 1,800 social residential units and over 23,000 sq m of retail floorspace. The site lies to the east of Dartford town centre in close proximity to Northfleet. We understand that the application is still pending consideration.

4.29 The redevelopment of Dartford’s town centre could result in a step change in the current role and function of the centre. We envisage that over the LDF period there is potential for Dartford to exert a greater influence on the Sevenoaks catchment, particularly in the north of the District around Swanley. Although, the improvement in retail offer and enhancement of the town centre will progress in unison with the growing population envisaged along the Thames Gateway.

Maidstone

4.30 Maidstone is located approximately 21 miles east of Sevenoaks. It is relatively accessible via the M26/A25 and the M20. Maidstone is one of the main towns in Kent, with an estimated primary catchment population of 291,000 people. The closest Zone within the Sevenoaks study area to Maidstone is Zone 12 (Plan 1). It should be noted that the survey results were undertaken before opening of Fremlin Walk which has significantly enhanced the retail offer in the centre.

4.31 It is evident from the Household Telephone Survey that circa £32m of total comparison goods expenditure from within the study area travels to Maidstone town centre (Plan 3). This equates to circa 2.8% of total comparison goods expenditure in the survey area. As you would expect, £21.6m of this expenditure is derived from Zone 12, the Zone closest to Maidstone. Within the core Sevenoaks’ survey area (Zones 1 to 5), only circa £2.4m of comparison goods expenditure leaks to Maidstone town centre (Plan 4). Maidstone’s trade flow patterns are illustrated on Plan 9.

4.32 Maidstone has approximately 141,000 sq m gross of retail floorspace. The retail provision is focused on a core area, which is largely pedestrianised, on Week Street and also includes parts of the High Street, King Street and Gabriel’s Hill. The retail offer includes a range of multiples, but is largely mainstream and there are a few quality, upmarket stores.

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4.33 Maidstone has two managed shopping centres. The Chequers Centre is located on the southern side of King Street a short walk from the core area of Week Street. The main tenants within this scheme include Bhs, Boots and TJ Hughes. There are also several fashion multiples such as Next, Miss Selfridge and Ann Harvey and a range of retailers at the ‘value’ end of the market. This scheme opened in 1976 and provides approximately 50,300 sq m gross of retail floorspace on three levels. The centre has been refurbished twice since it opened and the tenant mix has improved in recent years with the addition of TJ Hughes, an extended Next and a nearby Sainsbury’s store.

4.34 The other managed centre in Maidstone is the Royal Star Arcade, this is a small scheme located on the northern side of the High Street. It opened in 1987 and provides an attractive covered mall which accommodates a number of quality/independent retailers such as Viyella, Karen Millen and Monsoon.

4.35 The majority of the major multiples and variety stores in Maidstone are located on the prime pitch on Week Street, these include two Marks & Spencer stores, WH Smith, Mothercare and a range of fashion multiples. According to the Promis Report, Maidstone town centre has a good level of convenience provision. Sainsbury’s opened a superstore at Romney Place, next to the Chequers Centre in October 2000. There is also an Iceland supermarket within the Chequers Centre and a Somerfield Supermarket on King Street. Lidl also has a store to west of the central area of Maidstone.

4.36 The retail offer in Maidstone has been considerably enhanced with the opening of a new shopping centre, Fremlin Walk in March 2005, which is located on the northern part of Week Street. The centre provides 32,515 sq m of comparison floorspace with 45 shop units in a modern, open-street style shopping centre. The scheme has attracted a range of mid-range fashion multiples such as Oasis, Topshop, Zara, Boots, Next, HMV and Principles and it is anchored by a 9,300 sq m House of Fraser department store and will also incorporate 45 unit shops. The shop units are arranged along a curved open mall, leading from Week Street to the House of Fraser store at the rear. The scheme has elevated Maidstone into one of the top 50 centres in the country and we consider it is likely that Maidstone will be maintaining more of its market share as well as attracting shoppers from the eastern part of the Sevenoaks catchment as well as further a field.

4.37 Other potentially significant proposals in the pipeline for Maidstone include Maidstone East, an extension to the Chequers Centre and the redevelopment of the House of Fraser store. At Maidstone East station, an edge of centre site has been allocated in the Local Plan for non-food retail, leisure and residential uses. We understand that Network Rail and Asda have appointed Countryside Properties to regenerate the site. Pre- applications are currently underway; it is likely that any development will include a superstore, hotel, residential uses and improvements to the railway station. At this stage, we consider it unlikely to have any significant impact on the Sevenoaks catchment. An extension to the Chequers Shopping Centre is currently under construction and will provide c. 32,515 sq m of new floorspace when it is completed in September 2007. There are also plans to redevelop the former House of Fraser store on Week Street. The site has been bought by Land Securities who are planning a mixed-use scheme with retail on the groundlfoor and residential units above.

4.38 There is currently fairly strong retailer demand to locate in Maidstone. This is likely to reflect the marketing activity for the Fremlin Walk Shopping Centre. Retailers currently interested in representation in Maidstone are largely mainstream fashion/clothing retailers, several furniture/homewares retailers and there are requirements from fast-food/restaurants and pub operators.

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Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

Tunbridge Wells

4.39 Tunbridge Wells is located approximately 12 miles south of Sevenoaks. It is relatively easily accessible to residents of the Sevenoaks catchment via the A21 and the A26. Tunbridge Wells is an attractive, historic town with an estimated primary catchment population of 274,000 people. Zone 11 of the Sevenoaks study area provides the closest potential out flow of trade.

4.40 It is evident from the Household Telephone Survey that Tunbridge Wells retains circa £74.8m (6.5%) of comparison goods expenditure from the Sevenoaks study area (Plan 3). Within the core Sevenoaks survey area (Zone 1 to 5) Tunbridge Wells attracts £13.3m of available expenditure. After Bluewater, this is the destination attracting most expenditure from Sevenoaks itself. Tunbridge Wells attracts most expenditure from survey Zones 11 and 8, which are the Zones closest to it (Plan 7).

4.41 Tunbridge Wells has approximately 108,000 sq m gross of retail floorspace. The town has an extensive linear shopping area, spreading from Grosvenor Road in the north to The Pantiles in the south. Overall the retail offer is strong, with a range of quality clothing and fashion shops in addition to mainstream multiple retailers.

4.42 Tunbridge Wells has a below average proportion of managed floorspace, with only one managed shopping centre. The Royal Victoria Place is situated at the northern end of the town centre and provides approximately 28,500 sq m of floorspace on two levels. The centre opened in April 1992 and is anchored by Fenwick, Bhs and Marks & Spencer. Other mainstream multiples within the centre include WH Smith, Boots, Next and Woolworths. The centre also has a range of fashion retailers, ranging from mainstream operators such as GAP, Burton and Oasis to quality fashion retailers such as Hobbs and Monsoon. In addition to the main malls, Royal Victoria Place also incorporates a small open-air precinct called Ely Court, which provides kiosks, boutiques occupied by independent/specialist retailers, and a market square.

4.43 Tunbridge Wells also has two smaller schemes located in the southern part of the town centre. Great Hall Arcade is a small covered precinct with tenants principally offering furniture and furnishings. The Corn Exchange is a small covered development of around 14 kiosks occupied by independent traders.

4.44 The longest of the key retail streets in Tunbridge Wells is Mount Pleasant Road. The town’s second department store, Hoopers is located here. This is a small independent store offering a few concessions. Other stores on Mount Pleasant Road include multiples such as Russell and Bromley and number of quality fashion retailers such as Jigsaw, East, Fat Face and Phase Eight. To the south of Mount Pleasant Road, the High Street accommodates many of the Tunbridge Wells traditional shop units. These are largely occupied by independent retailers and services, many of which are exclusive and upmarket. Beyond this, at the southern end of the shopping area, The Pantiles area provides a mix of specialist and independent retailers.

4.45 The town centre convenience provision includes a Tesco Metro on Grosvenor Road and an Iceland supermarket on Calverley Road. There is also Marks & Spencers Food Hall situated in the central shopping area in the Royal Victoria Place shopping centre.

4.46 There is currently a relatively high level of retailer demand for representation in Tunbridge Wells for a town of its size and status. A range of retailers have an interest in the town and these include TK Maxx and the department store operators, House of Fraser, TJ Hughes and Debenhams. A range of other fashion and

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clothing retailers are also seeking premises, these include several more upmarket stores such as LK Bennett and Whistles.

4.47 There are currently a range of proposals in the pipeline for Tunbridge Wells. The Borough Council has identified a need for a substantial amount of additional comparison floorspace. Market Square and Ely Court within Royal Victoria Place have been allocated for possible future redevelopment in order to create an additional 10,000 sq m of comparison floorspace. We understand that the Council are in discussions with Westfield who own this site. The Council has also identified the former ABC cinema on Mount Pleasant Road for future development. An application for this site was granted at appeal for 5,249 sq m of additional retail floorspace and a nightclub. Two other town centre sites have been allocated for mixed uses including some retailing.

4.48 We do not consider that there are any proposals currently in the pipeline for Tunbridge Wells which would result in a significant step change in the current role and function of the centre. As such we envisage that over the LDF period it is unlikely to exert any greater influence on the Sevenoaks’ catchment than currently.

Summary

• Within the study area, our findings highlight Bluewater, Bromley and Tunbridge Wells as the key competing centres in terms of trade draw. Despite some redevelopment in Bromley, particularly at the Bromley Mall and the preparation of an Area Action Plan for the centre, we do not envisage that it is likely to change its influence on current shopping patterns in Sevenoaks to any significant degree over the LDF period due to its inaccessibility to Sevenoaks. Similarly as far as we can predict, Bluewater is unlikely to develop further. Although there are a number of schemes in the pipeline for Tunbridge Wells, the main retail scheme is at a relatively early stage and as such is unlikely to significantly affect Sevenoaks in the short to medium term.

• Maidstone and Dartford currently have the least influence on shopping patterns in the study area. However, since the 2004 Retail Study was undertaken, the retail offer in Maidstone has been significantly enhanced with the opening of the Fremlin Walk Shopping Centre, which has lifted Maidstone into the top 50 ranked centres in the UK. As a result of the improved retail offer and its relatively easy accessibility from Sevenoaks, we consider that Maidstone will now attract more shoppers from the eastern and northern parts of the Sevenoaks catchment area. Dartford also has new retail floorspace in the development pipeline; however, to date, progress has been slow.

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5. QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SEVENOAKS

5.1 Having examined the sub-regional context and identified the position and performance of Sevenoaks relative to its principal competitors, in this Section we set out the results of our detailed assessment of the vitality and viability of the centre, based on the PPS6 indicators. This draws on a number of data sources including GVA Grimley’s on site survey work carried out in November 2004 and in April 2007.

5.2 Sevenoaks is a historic town and serves as one of the principal shopping centres for West Kent. The town can be accessed easily from the M25 (Junction 5) and has an estimated shopper population of 15,000 – 20,000 people.

5.3 The core shopping area is compact with the High Street providing the main ‘spine route’. The designated Primary Shopping Area is located on High Street and extends from Dorothy Perkins in the north, to Waitrose in the south. There is one managed shopping centre, The Blighs Meadow, covering an area to the west of the High Street. It opened in Autumn 2000 and the offer includes a number of multiple retailers which supplement the retail provision on the High Street. Diversity of Uses

5.4 The Experian Goad Town Centre Report for Sevenoaks (March 2006) identifies a total of 30,592 sq m for retail trade and services, comprising 202 units. Comparisons with the March 2004 Goad Town Centre Report indicate that there has been little change in the town’s floorspace (30,097 sq m in 2004) and no change in the number of units between 2004 and 2006. It should be noted that the floorspace figures quoted by Experian Goad are neither the net, nor necessarily always the gross area of the outlets. The figures are derived from the Experian Goad Plan and only show the footprint of units, within the building lines.

5.5 Table 5.1 highlights the composition of Sevenoaks by the number of units. It is evident that the centre has a below average representation of units occupied by retailers in the convenience category. The number of comparison retail units is 7.5%, above the national average suggesting that Sevenoaks is functioning well as a comparison goods shopping destination. The centre also has an above average representation of service businesses and a slightly above average number of miscellaneous uses.

5.6 The Experian Goad Report indicates that Sevenoaks has a particularly high proportion of retailers in the clothing ‘categories’. Other comparison goods categories in which Sevenoaks has an above average representation are books, arts/crafts, stationary; DIY, hardware, household goods; gifts, china and glass; and jewellers, clocks. This indicates a comprehensive retail offer that in part caters for visitors and tourists. The categories in which Sevenoaks has a below average representation are car accessories; chemists and opticians; variety, department, catalogue; sports, toys, cycles and hobbies; and charity, pets. The under representation in these categories reflects Sevenoaks size and function as a historic market town.

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Table 5.1: Sevenoaks Retail Composition by Number of Units

Percentage of National Average Retail Category No. of Units Variants (%) Total (%) (%)

Convenience 15 7.43 9.09 -1.66

Comparison 108 53.47 46.01 7.46

Service 70 34.65 32.83 1.82

Vacant 7 3.47 10.72 -7.25

Miscellaneous 2 0.99 1.34 0.35

Total 202 100 100

Source: Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2006

5.7 Table 5.2 compares Experian’s 1993 floorspace figures for Sevenoaks to the 2004 and 2006 figures. Whilst we have been unable to verify the exact definitions of each category used in 1993 these figures provide a useful historical analysis. It is evident that there has been little significant change in the representation of convenience and comparison goods retailers in Sevenoaks in the last ten years. There has however been a considerable increase in the number of service businesses. It therefore appears that the Blighs Meadow Scheme has been integral in maintaining the retail offer in Sevenoaks, in the face of increasing competition from service uses.

Table 5.2: Comparison of Sevenoaks Retail Unit Composition in 1993 with 2004 and 2006

Year Convenience Comparison Service Other

% of % of % of % of Unit Unit Unit Unit Total Total Total Total

1993 12 6.2 113 59.1 46 24.0 20 10.4

2004 14 6.93 108 53.47 71 35.15 9 4.46 2006 15 7.43 108 53.47 70 34.65 9 12.07

Source: Sevenoaks Shopping Study 1994 (Goad 1993) / Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2004 and March 2006 Retailer Representation

5.8 A multiple retailer is defined as being part of a network of nine or more outlets. The presence of multiple outlets can enhance the appeal of a centre, and in March 2006, multiple retailers occupied 84 of the total 202 retail units in Sevenoaks (42%). This figure is above the national average of 33%. Experian Goad highlight 30 key attractors as a benchmark to judge centres against, and it is evident from our analysis that Sevenoaks has 11 of these retailers (Table 5.3). In particular, Sevenoaks lacks many of the mainstream clothing retailers and there are no department stores. These figures reflect the size of Sevenoaks town centre and that Sevenoaks has attracted more niche and quality retailers, rather than the main high street multiples.

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Table 5.3 Key Attractors in Sevenoaks Town Centre No. in Sevenoaks Town Mixed Goods Multiple No. in Sevenoaks Town Multiple Retailer Centre Retailers Centre Argos 0 Next 0 BhS 0 River Island 0 Boots The Chemist 1 Sainsbury’s 0 Burton 1 Superdrug 0 Clarks 0 Tesco 2 Clintons 1 Topman 0 Currys 0 Topshop 0 Debenhams 0 Virgin Megastore 0 Dorothy Perkins 1 Vodafone 0 H & M 0 W H Smith 1 House of Fraser 0 Waitrose 1 John Lewis 0 Waterstones 0 Marks & Spencer 1 Wilkinsons 0 New Look 1 Woolworths 1

Source: Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2006

5.9 The Primary Retail Frontages (PRF) were defined prior to the development of Blighs Meadow and therefore extend along the High Street from 83 – 137 on western side to 56-136 on eastern side. Key retailers within this prime area include Boots the Chemist, Woolworths, W H Smith, Iceland, Tesco and Waitrose.

5.10 The Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre opened in November 2000 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 4,645 sq m gross. The centre is located to the rear of units fronting onto the High Street and has created a new focal point in the heart of Sevenoaks. The centre can be accessed from Bank Street, Dorset Street, Brewery Lane and Blighs Road, and offers a mix of national multiples, including Marks and Spencer Simply Food, Laura Ashley, Monsoon, Holland and Barrett, Adams, Phones 4 U and Claire’s Accessories.

5.11 Blighs Meadow also contains a mix of quality traders, including Bang and Olufsen, Alan Streek (Menswear), Phase Eight and Whittard, along with a number of independent niche retailers. A weekly craft market is held within the Clock Tower extending onto Blighs Road. This contains a number of stalls selling crafts and local produce from the surrounding area including home made food, local art, furniture and photography. All of the Blighs Meadow’s units are fully let, reflecting the demand from retailers for space within this centre. A surface level car park comprising approximately 220 spaces adjoins the shopping centre.

5.12 Since the 2004 study, phase 1a of the Blighs Meadow Shopping Scheme has been granted planning permission. The vacant space adjacent to Baby Gap (formerly McDonalds) and fronting the car park has been developed to provide a unit which is now occupied by Robert Dyas. Construction is also underway on an extension to no’s 50-52 London Road.

5.13 London Road, running diagonally with High Street, provides a more secondary retail area. It contains a number of independently owned restaurants, shops and financial services. The Sevenoaks Playhouse containing a cinema, a 450 seat theatre, and a studio is situated here. Further, comparison units are also located to the north of the centre, where High Street leads into Dartford Road.

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5.14 Convenience provision on the High Street comprises a Tesco and Waitrose. There is also a Marks and Spencer Simply Food and Cook Deli and Frozen Food shop in Blighs Meadow. Iceland has closed since the 2004 study. Tesco is located opposite the entrance to the Blighs Meadow shopping centre. The store opened in 1978 and has a floor size of approximately 1,800 sq m net. It is spilt into two parts, with comparison goods, comprising clothing, electrical items, toys, music and books, being sold in a unit fronting High Street, whilst the convenience provision is located to the rear. Approximately 120 car parking facilities are located in a surface car park to the rear of the store.

5.15 Waitrose is located at the southern end of the High Street. The store opened in 1983 with a floorspace of approximately 1,235 sq m net. The store is relatively constrained with only six aisles and 11 checkouts. Whilst it has a delicatessen counter, the range of comparison goods on offer is limited. An adjacent multi- storey car park provides approximately 160 dedicated spaces.

5.16 Marks and Spencer is located in the former Broadway Public House and Restaurant unit in the Blighs Meadow Scheme. The store benefits from a light and airy design and modern configuration and has a floorspace of approximately 294 sq m net. The store is a key anchor and is popular with office workers at lunchtimes. Retailer Demand

5.17 Table 5.4 summarises the change in the number of retailer requirements for Sevenoaks, together with the relative change in its rank order since 1998. In April 2007, Sevenoaks had 59 retailer requirements equating to a rank order of 111. The number of retailer requirements has increased since October 1998 and this is reflected in a reduction in the rank order. This suggests that Sevenoaks has improved its position as a shopping destination in recent years, despite the opening of Bluewater in 1999. Demand in Sevenoaks is also rising despite the opening of the Blighs Meadow scheme.

Table 5.4: Sevenoaks Ranking of Retailer Requirements

Number of Requirements Ranking (1st Highest) Date

59 111 April 2007 57 121 Oct 2006 65 106 Oct 2005 52 138 Oct 2004 47 150 Oct 2003 35 189 Oct 2002 38 154 Oct 2001 28 202 Oct 2000 34 166 Oct 1999 28 186 Oct 1998 Source: Focus Property Intelligence Database

5.18 Table 5.5 provides a more detailed picture of the requirements for Sevenoaks. At present, the Focus Property Intelligence database identifies 46 requirements, including 19 from comparison retailers, 2 from convenience retailers and 25 from service providers. In total, these operators require between 15,982 sq m and 29,254 sq m gross of retail floorspace. The full breakdown is attached in Appendix 2.

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Table 5.5: Sevenoaks Town Centre Requirements Min. Floorspace sq m Max. Floorspace sq m Retail Category No. of Units gross gross

Comparison 19 4,571 8,965 Convenience 2 260 697 Service 25 11,152 19,593 TOTAL 46 15,982 29,254

Source: Focus Property Intelligence Database/GVA Grimley

5.19 The requirements include a range of comparison goods retailers, with a total floorspace requirement of between 4,571 sq m and 8,965 sq m gross in Sevenoaks. The most significant requirement is for a Debenhams Store of between 1,626 sq m and 2,090 sq m gross. Other multiple retailers seeking representation include Body Shop, Carphone Warehouse, Jessops and Land of Leather.

5.20 The Focus Database identifies two convenience retailer requirements for Sevenoaks – both from multiple off- licence operators. In general, given the level of competition for sites, the main convenience store operators do not publish their requirements on national databases.

5.21 The Focus Database identifies 25 service operator requirements for Sevenoaks. These include a range of café and restaurant operators, several opticians as well as large floorspace requirements from Esporta Health and Fitness, Aquarius Spa and Luminar Leisure for a nightclub. The exact locations of these operators within Sevenoaks should be a matter for more detailed consideration, particularly in relation to the primary shopping frontages of the centre. Shopping Rents

5.22 The level of rent which retailers are prepared to pay for retail space within a centre is an indication of the perceived strength of that centre (although other factors such as the availability of floorspace will have an impact on rental value). Whilst rental values can also provide a measure of the primacy of streets and locations in a town centre, we have drawn on investment research, which focuses on Prime Zone A rental values.

5.23 Table 5.6 outlines Prime Zone A retail rents in Sevenoaks and compares them with neighbouring and competing centres. In 2006, retail rents in Sevenoaks were £753 per sq m, higher than Tonbridge and Dartford. Whilst rental levels in Sevenoaks were below other centres, this reflects the higher order role of centres such as Bluewater, Lakeside, Tunbridge Wells, Maidstone and Bromley within the sub-regional network of centres.

5.24 Prime Zone A rental levels grew significantly in Sevenoaks during the period 2001 – 2005, however they have remained stagnant since 2005. Such strong rental growth indicates the vitality and viability of Sevenoaks, even with the increased competition provided by Bluewater and other sub-regional centres.

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Table 5.6: Comparison of Prime Retail Rents (£ Per sq m)

Centre 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006

Bluewater 3,498 3,875 4,306 4,413 4,413

Lakeside 2,691 3,337 3,552 3,767 3,875

Croydon 2,960 2,906 2,906 2,906 2,906

Bromley 1,884 2,260 2,368 2,368 2,422

Maidstone 1,399 1,399 1,507 1,615 1,507

Tunbridge Wells 1,238 1,292 1,292 1,346 1,507

Sevenoaks 538 646 700 753 753

Tonbridge 484 538 592 646 646

Dartford 323 431 431 431 484

Source: Colliers CRE - 2006

Commercial Yields

5.25 The commercial yield on non-domestic property is an indication of the confidence of investors in the long-term profitability of the town centre. However, both the Government and the RICS have warned that this requires careful analysis and its limitations must be understood. Yield on property investment represents the return (in the form of rent) on capital to an investor. As property investments do not usually produce a fixed income (i.e. rents are reviewed according to market conditions, and the terms of the property’s lease), the greater the prospect of future rental growth, the lower the initial yield which an investor would be prepared to accept. Conversely, a higher yield reflects the lower expectation of future rental growth prospects. Yields are therefore an indicator of expectations of the general economic prospects for a town centre.

5.26 Table 5.7 compares prime retail yields in Sevenoaks with competing centres in the wider catchment area. It is evident that yields in Sevenoaks are currently 5.5%. This is the same as Maidstone and Tonbridge and reflects the strength of Sevenoaks, as these are larger, higher order centres. Dartford has the highest yields (i.e. poorest) at 7.5%. Yields in Sevenoaks have fallen since April 2003 which is a positive indicator for the centre.

Table 5.7 Comparison of Prime Retail Yields (%)

Centre April 2001 April 2003 January 2004 January 2005 January 2006 January 2007

Tunbridge 5.50 5.75 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.00 Wells

Lakeside 4.75 5.50 5.50 4.75 4.75 5.00

Bluewater 6.00 6.00 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.25

Maidstone 5.50 5.75 5.50 6.00 5.75 5.50

Sevenoaks 7.50 7.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.50

Tonbridge 7.00 7.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.50

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Bromley 5.25 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

Croydon 5.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

Dartford 10.50 >=10 9.00 8.00 7.75 7.50

Source: Valuation Office Property Market Report 2006 Vacant Retail Property

5.27 The proportion of vacant street level property is one of the relevant indicators which can be used when assessing the vitality and viability of a town centre. It should be used with caution, however, as vacancies can arise even in the strongest town centres, particularly where properties are under alteration.

5.28 Table 5.8 indicates that according to the Experian Goad Survey (March 2006), there were 7 vacant units in Sevenoaks, equating to a vacancy rate of only 3.47%. This is a very low vacancy rate, compared to the national average of 10.72%. In terms of retail floorspace, 2.52% of floorspace in Sevenoaks town centre is vacant, compared to a national average of 9.18%. These figures reflect the attractiveness of Sevenoaks as a location for retailers and highlights that it is performing well as a shopping destination. However, with such a low vacancy rate the ability of the centre to accommodate requirements from retailers for new/alternative premises is limited.

Table 5.8: Vacancy Rate in Sevenoaks- by Unit and Floorspace

Vacant Percentage of National % of Total National Vacant Units Floorspace (sq Total Units Average (%) Floorspace Average (%) m)

7 3.47 10.72 771 2.52 9.18

Source: Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2006

5.29 GVA Grimley’s on-site survey in April 2007 updated the Experian Goad data. The survey highlighted that three of the vacant units identified by Experian Goad in March 2006 are now occupied by Scrivens Opticians, Strada and the Job Centre. However, several additional vacant units were identified including the former Logo Clothing on London Road, the former Dorset Arms Public House and the former Amber Gift Shop along Dorset Street. A number of other units have changed hands including Caffe Uno which has been taken up by Brasserie Chez Gerard, and QS Clothing which has been re-occupied by Specsavers Opticians. In general, this level of re-occupation highlights that Sevenoaks is currently experiencing few problems in uptake. Accessibility

5.30 Sevenoaks benefits from good links to the main road and motorway network. The M25 is located to the north west of the town linking Sevenoaks with Swanley in the north (14 km) and Reigate to the west (24 km). The M26 leading to the M20 lies to the north of the centre connecting the town with Maidstone (25 km) to the east, and the A21 runs to the west of Sevenoaks connecting the town with Royal Tunbridge Wells to the south (18 km).

5.31 The rail network provides good linkages to neighbouring areas. Sevenoaks is only 35 minutes via train to London Charing Cross with services leaving every 20 minutes. It is also connected to Tunbridge Wells and

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Swanley both 20 minutes away. Despite good rail access the train station is some distance from the primary shopping area. It is on London Road approximately 15-20 minutes walk from the town centre.

5.32 Sevenoaks’ bus station is located in the heart of the centre on Buckhurst Lane and provides reasonable access to the surrounding area. The town also has a number of car parks (Table 5.9) with approximately 1,429 parking spaces within the centre.

Table 5.9: Car Parks in Sevenoaks Town Centre

Location No. of Spaces

Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre 241 Bradbourne 168 (Season tickets) 48 (Day ticket spaces) Buckhurst 60 Buckhurst 291 & 150 (Business Season tickets Council Offices (Off Eardley Road) 146 (Saturdays only) Pembroke Road 54 Sennocke 84 South Park 143 St James Road 21 St John’s Hill 65 Suffolk Way 156 TOTAL 1,408 Source: Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2006 and Sevenoaks District Council

Pedestrian Flows

5.33 The numbers and movements of people in different parts of the town is a useful indicator of the relative strength of different areas; it is therefore important in providing guidance on how parts of the town would be affected by different actions and improvements. We have reviewed pedestrian movements in Sevenoaks Town Centre through a footfall survey undertaken by Pedestrian Market Research Services (PMRS). The survey was carried out in May 2004.

5.34 The count figures are reflected as indices based upon the average recorded flow of all 30 count points, which are benchmarked at 100%. Count points with indices greater than 100 have pedestrian flows above the centre’s average, and count points with indices less than 100 have pedestrian flows below the centre’s average. The full survey results are attached in Appendix 3.

5.35 It is evident that the highest pedestrian movements in Sevenoaks town centre are on the High Street, where the main national multiples are located. The weekly pedestrian flows outside W H Smith and Hoads Shoes on the High Street are the highest recorded counts in the centre. Other strong areas attracting high levels of footfall are all on the High Street and include outside Specsavers Opticans, Iceland (now closed), The Officers Club (currently vacant) and Woolworths. Although the count points in Blighs Meadow recorded above average pedestrian flows, this was not the busiest part of the centre. The count points were the seventh, ninth and tenth busiest. The survey was however undertaken prior to the opening of Marks & Spencer Simply Food and from our site visit in April 2007, it is clear that this is attracting more people to this part of the centre.

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5.36 The lowest pedestrian flows were recorded outside Red Yellow Blue Children’s Wear on London Road and Bikes Cycles and Repairs at the southern end of the High Street beyond the junction with London Road. In general, the lowest pedestrian flows were identified in the more secondary retail areas, notably the northern end of High Street and along London Road. All of the count points on London Road were below the centre average. This also reflected our findings of the 2007 site visit. Customer Views and Behaviour

5.37 We have drawn on the Household Telephone Survey which was commissioned as part of the original 2004 Retail Study to assess customer views and behaviour. The survey included a number of attitudinal questions which highlight views on Sevenoaks town centre and the key competing centres. The questions covered the range and quality of retailing, other services, accessibility, safety, and the environment. The full results illustrated in graph format are attached in Appendix 4.

5.38 Shoppers that use Sevenoaks for their main clothing, footwear and fashion items like it for a number of reasons. For example, the survey revealed that 28% of people who shop in Sevenoaks found it conveniently close to home and work, whilst 13% believed the centre contains a good range of shops. With regard to the shopping environment, just over 15% of respondents thought the centre has an attractive environment. However, 14% of visitors to the town felt that there was very little to like about Sevenoaks.

5.39 In contrast, people’s main dislikes regarding Sevenoaks related to parking. Over 15% of respondents who shop primarily in the centre found it difficult to park, whilst over 4% of respondents disliked the fact that they have to pay for parking. Further dislikes included over 4.2% of respondents considering the centre to be too crowded and 5.6% deeming Sevenoaks to have a poor range of goods.

5.40 The household survey revealed that Bluewater was the most popular destination for people within the catchment to shop for clothing, footwear and fashion items. The survey highlighted that 42% of the respondents who used Bluewater as their first choice destination did so because of the good range of shops on offer. A further 13% also found it easy to park, whilst 11% found it conveniently close to home and work.

5.41 Respondents dislikes in relation to Bluewater included over 10% of respondents considering the centre to be too far from their work / home and just over 12% considering the shopping centre to be difficult to get to by car. A large proportion of respondents (21%) also felt that the centre was too crowded.

5.42 With regard to transport modes to both Sevenoaks and Bluewater, a large proportion of respondents, 74% and 98%, travel by car/van to their respective destinations. This shows the dominance of this mode of transport in the catchment, particularly for people travelling to Bluewater. Alternative modes of transport to Sevenoaks include the bus (15%) and arriving by foot (7%). Environmental Quality

5.43 The main shopping area in Sevenoaks town centre is compact, with excellent linkages between the Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre and the High Street. The opening of Blighs Meadow in 2000 has provided customers with an alternative shopping experience to that of the High Street. The centre successfully connects the High Street and London Road and as such has been well integrated into the town’s historic core.

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5.44 The scheme is open-plan, designed to create a mix of winding lanes and courtyards. The use of traditional building materials such as tile hanging and weatherboarding also promotes its integration with the existing architecture of Sevenoaks. In general, the Blighs Meadow scheme provides a high quality shopping environment. The paving is of a consistently high standard throughout, and appears to be well maintained and supplemented with street furniture in the form of benches, litter bins, trees and street lighting. There could be some scope for more environmental enhancements and greening.

5.45 Sevenoaks High Street has a number of attractive buildings, in varying styles of architecture protected with Conservation Area designations. Fascias throughout the centre are generally in good condition and maintained to a high standard. There are however, a number of poorer quality modern buildings on the eastern side of High Street, particularly the units occupied by Tesco and Boots The Chemist. The quality of the shopping environment along High Street is also impeded by the two-way road network and the narrow pavements, which are in a poor state of repair.

5.46 Investment in the physical environment is necessary to ensure shoppers in the catchment area view the centre as a pleasant place to shop. A high quality environment will also continue to generate interest from retailers for new premises and will help retain retailers already represented. A declining physical environment will push shoppers away to competing centres and retailers are less likely to register a requirement for Sevenoaks in light of growing competition in the sub-region. We consider that improvements could be made to certain shops fronts along High Street and that the issue of congestion along High Street is considered, possibly with traffic calming measures. Sevenoaks Out-of-Centre Retail Provision

5.47 The distribution of out of centre retail provision is illustrated on Plan 10.

i) Comparison

5.48 The Otford Road Retail Park is located approximately 1.75 miles to the north of Sevenoaks town centre, on Otford Road (A225). The Retail Park, opened in 2001 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 3,550 sq m net, comprising three warehouse units including Wickes, Currys and Carpetright. The Retail Park has approximately 260 dedicated car parking and has an Open A1 non-food consent.

5.49 The Riverside Retail Park is located approximately 0.5 miles north of the Otford Road Retail Park on Otford Road (A225). The park opened in 2001 and contains three warehouse units including Pets at Home, Halfords and Homebase. In total it comprises approximately 3,300 sq m net. The Riverside Retail Park has approximately 190 dedicated car parking spaces and also has an Open A1 non-food consent. A McDonalds drive thru/restaurant is located adjacent to the park to the west.

ii) Convenience

5.50 Sevenoaks has two main out of centre food superstores: Sainsbury’s, Otford Road and Tesco, London Road. The convenience provision within the entire District is illustrated on Plan 10.

5.51 Sainsbury’s is located to the north of Sevenoaks town centre, adjacent to Riverside Retail Park. The store benefits from good accessibility as it is on the main road network (A225 Otford Road). The store opened in

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1992 and has a floorspace of approximately 7,290 sq m gross (4,270 sq m net). It provides a modern, fully conforming superstore shopping environment spread over 30 aisles. It has a comprehensive food offer including a bakery, fresh salad bar, fish mongers, hot deli and meat counter. It also has a relatively strong non-food retail offer, selling some brown electrical goods, household furnishings and music. Additional facilities include a café, photo processing centre, dry cleaners and a petrol filling station.

5.52 Tesco is located to the north west of Sevenoaks town centre at Riverhead. The store, like Sainsbury’s, benefits from a prominent location on the main road network as it is just off London Road (A224). The store opened in 1998 and has a floorspace of approximately 4,790 sq m gross (2,980 sq m net). It has 12 aisles and 23 customer checkouts. The store has a comprehensive food offer including a bakery, butcher, fish monger and a hot deli counter. Additional facilities include a café/restaurant, petrol filling station and creche. The non-food retail offer is more limited than the Sainsbury’s store on Otford Road, and comprises just one aisle of brown electrical goods and a music/CD section.

Proposals/Commitments

i) Commitments

5.53 Construction is underway on the Blighs Meadow phase 1a scheme on land involving units 50-52 London Road. The first element which has now been constructed involved the development of a new retail unit which is now occupied by Robert Dyas. The second part, which is currently under construction, comprises the development of a further unit to the rear of the units fronting London Road which the Council have informed us will be occupied by a café/bar. The Council have indicated that this overall scheme will add approximately 742 sq m gross of retail floorspace, we estimate that this could result in approximately 482 sq m net additional floorspace, a proportion of this is however likely to be in A3 (restaurant/café) uses.

ii) Proposals

5.54 There are proposals in the pipeline for a further extension to the Blighs Meadow Shopping centre. Phase 2 has been in the pipeline for sometime and would involve land between the Blighs Meadow car park and London Road, which is currently used as car parking and Sevenoaks Social Club.

5.55 A number of different proposals have come forward for this site. As we understand it at the moment two contrasting ways forward have been considered for the site. The first would be an incremental scheme redeveloping the London Road car park and the Sevenoaks Club site as separate entities. The second and preferred option would be a comprehensive scheme based around the relocation of the existing Waitrose store from the High Street to the London Road site. We understand that the Council are currently holding talks with relevant landowners and other parties looking at issues such as layout, design, linkages, access and car parking arrangements. Detailed studies into transport, design and feasibility are currently being undertaken to inform any future development proposals. If Waitrose were to move this would free up space which could be used for additional retail/leisure development.

5.56 In November 2003, a planning application was submitted by Tesco Stores Ltd for an extension to their out of centre store at London Road, Riverhead. The proposals seek to add new sales floorspace, new bulk storage areas and new staff facilities. The proposed scheme aims to increase the overall gross floorspace of the store

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by 3,051 sq m, so that the total floorspace would be 7,315 sq m gross. The proposed net increase is 1,288 sq m which would create a total net floorspace of 4,264 sq m. The net increase in floorspace would largely be to provide additional non-food goods. Sevenoaks District Council refused the application and it is currently subject to an appeal by Tesco.

5.57 Sainsbury’s have previously submitted a planning application to extend their out of centre store at Otford Road. This has however, not been taken forward by Sainsbury’s. Summary

• We consider Sevenoaks is a vital and viable town centre. The retail offer provides the local shopping catchment and tourist population with a good range of shopping facilities.

• Sevenoaks has an above average representation of comparison goods retailers, particularly in the clothing categories. Major multiple retailers on the High Street include Boots the Chemist, Woolworths and W H Smith. These are now complemented by the retailers in the Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre which opened in November 2000. This managed shopping centre has a varied offer including a number of quality multiple retailers and a range of independent niche retailers. The centre also holds a weekly craft market, with stalls selling crafts and local produce. Sevenoaks does not have a department store.

• The strength of the centre is also reflected in the particularly low vacancy rates and the recent take-up of units by quality retailers such as a good quality restaurant (Strada) and children’s clothing store (Baby Gap). However, with so few vacancies the ability of the centre to accommodate retailer’s requirements for new or alternative premises is limited.

• Although Sevenoaks has a below average provision of convenience goods retailers, the foodstore provision is good, with four main stores comprising a Tesco, Waitrose, Marks and Spencer Simply Food and Cook Deli and Frozen Food.

• The number of retailer requirements has increased since October 1998, suggesting that Sevenoaks has improved its position as a shopping destination in recent years, despite the opening of Bluewater and the Fremlin Walk Shopping Centre in Maidstone. In total, registered requirements to locate in Sevenoaks comprise between 15,982 sq m and 29,254 sq m gross of retail floorspace.

• Rental levels in Sevenoaks are higher than Tonbridge and Dartford, however they are lower than the centre’s main competitors which include Bluewater, Maidstone, Bromley and Tunbridge Wells. This reflects the higher order role of these centres within the sub-regional network. There has been very strong rental growth in Sevenoaks during the last five years, however, rents appear to have stagnated with no change between 2005 and 2006. With the exception of Bromley, rental levels have grown more in Sevenoaks than any of the competing centres, reflecting its vitality and viability. Commercial yields in Sevenoaks have fallen slightly since April 1997, highlighting its economic/investment stability. In contrast Croydon and Bromley’s yields have remained fairly static.

• Sevenoaks benefits from good access to the main road and motorway network linking it to the rest of the country and enabling easy access to the town centre from a number of small towns in the largely rural catchment area. The national rail network also provides good linkages. The centre has a number of car parks with the main public provision provided adjacent to the Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre and close to Buckhurst Avenue/Lane.

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• The strongest pedestrian flows in Sevenoaks have been recorded on the High Street where the national multiples are located. Above average counts were also high in Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre and this is likely to have grown stronger following the opening of Marks and Spencer Simply Food. In general, the lowest pedestrian flows were identified in the more secondary retail areas, notably London Road and the northern and southern areas of the High Street. Our analysis recognises the quality of the environment in the town centre, but also the potential to enhance certain shop frontages along High Street.

• Sevenoaks has two retail warehouse parks: the Otford Road Retail Park and the Riverside Retail Park. Both retail parks are of a similar size, each containing three warehouse units. Out-of-centre foodstore operators include Sainsbury’s, Otford Road and Tesco, London Road. These are both large stores with modern layouts and some non-food goods.

• There is currently only one commitment for new retail floorspace in Sevenoaks for Blighs Meadow Phase 1a. This is involves 742 sq m of gross floorspace on land to the rear of no’s 50-52 London Road.

• There is one major proposal in the development pipeline in Sevenoaks for Blighs Meadow Phase 2. We understand that development options are being explored for this site which could involve the relocation of the existing Waitrose store from the High Street. We understand that detailed feasibility, layout, design and access work is currently being undertaken and the Council are in discussion with relevant landowners and developers.

• There is also an application at appeal to extend the Tesco store at Riverhead and an application by Sainsbury’s to extend their out of centre store at Otford Road has not been taken forward.

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6. QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SWANLEY, EDENBRIDGE, WESTERHAM AND THE VILLAGES

6.1 In this section, we provide a qualitative assessment of the three principal shopping centres outside of Sevenoaks.

6.2 Experian Goad have surveyed both Swanley and Westerham. The health check for Edenbridge draws largely on data provided by Sevenoaks District Council and from GVA Grimley’s on site surveys carried out in November 2004 and April 2007. For each centre we consider the following:

i) Location, physical characteristics and layout of the centre;

ii) The retail composition of the centre;

iii) The range of uses, including vacancy rates;

iv) The key retailers;

v) The state of the environment, including any key features;

vi) The centre’s accessibility; and

vii) The level and quality of car parking.

Swanley

6.3 Swanley is located approximately 8.5 miles north of Sevenoaks in the north west corner of the District, in a largely residential area. In terms of accessibility, Swanley is located within close proximity to the main road and motorway network, with Junction 1 of the M20 and Junction 3 of the M25 located to the south east of the centre. The centre is split into two distinct shopping areas dissected by rail tracks. The Swanley Shopping Centre which opened in 1970 forms the northern part with Station Road and High Street comprising the southern part of the centre. The District centre has approximately 1,172 car parking spaces although 46% of these are dedicated to Asda.

6.4 GVA Grimley undertook a detailed on-site survey and centre audit in Swanley in November 2004 and in April 2007. The full centre audit illustrating retailer representation is set out in Appendix 5, and the summary is highlighted in Table 6.1. It is evident from our research that Swanley is functioning as a convenience and service centre, meeting ‘everyday’ and main food shopping needs. Notably, the centre has nine convenience goods retailers which include two supermarkets, a bakery, a health food shop and three CTN units. The largest number of units fall within the service category. These include four banks, three betting offices, two beauty salons, 13 cafes, restaurants and takeaways, five estate agents and two dry cleaners.

Table 6.1: Retail Composition, Swanley District Centre

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Retail Category No. of Outlets % of Total

Convenience 9 9 Comparison 27 28 Service 55 58 Vacant 4 4

TOTAL 95 100

Source: GVA Grimley On-Site Survey, April 2007

6.5 Swanley is anchored by an Asda store, located in the Swanley Centre. It has a floorspace of 5,343 sq m net (8,612 sq m gross). The store is open seven days a week and from Tuesday to Friday is open for 24 hours. The store has a comprehensive food offer including a bakery, butcher, fish monger and a hot deli counter. Additional facilities include an extensive range of electrical goods, a George clothing section, café/restaurant, optician and photo centre. There are approximately 280 surface level car parking spaces located to the south east of the store and approximately 350 adjoining the store to the north west.

6.6 There is also an Aldi to the north west of the centre, accessed via St Marys Road. The store has an approximate floorspace of 990 sq m net (1,211 sq m gross) with four aisles and is open seven days a week. The store has approximately 80 dedicated car parking spaces.

6.7 Comparison goods provision within Swanley is limited. There are 27 comparison goods units offering a fairly limited mix of independent retailers including units selling carpets and flooring, doors and windows, DIY and hardware and electrical goods. There is also a pet shop, an exotic fish shop and three pharmacies. There is only one clothing shop, Peacocks selling mixed and general clothing. Other multiple retailers are limited to Superdrug, Boots the Chemist and Holland and Barrett.

6.8 Swanley’s retail offer is complemented by a very popular market all day every Wednesday. The market is uncovered and consists of approximately 50-75 stalls selling a wide range of comparison and convenience goods including music, clothing and footwear, hardware, carpets, garden furniture, stationary, handbags and leather goods, jewellery, general groceries, meat, bread and flowers. There are also several food and drink stalls.

6.9 The market is privately operated by Wendy Fair Markets. Pitches are approximately 3,040mm (10ft) wide and 3,040 (10ft) deep and there are spaces for traders who want to trade from their own vehicles. In April 2007, the current price of a pitch on the market was £3.70 per 304mm (1ft frontage) between January and September and £4.70 between October and Christmas. Casual traders are charged £1 per 304mm (1ft) extra. The minimum fee is for 3040mm (10ft).

6.10 The market stalls cover the full length of the centre’s pedestrianised street along London Road. It is clear that the market attracts a large number of people to the centre. On the day of our site visit, the market was very busy and shoppers and visitors were spending time looking around the market as well as sitting outside at the market cafés and food and drink outlets. The other retail units in the centre will benefit from the increased activity generated by the market on Wednesday’s which could attract shoppers to Swanley from beyond its usual catchment.

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6.11 GVA Grimley’s on site survey in April 2007 identified 4 vacant outlets in Swanley. Although the number of vacant units has not changed since the 2004 study, the location of the vacancies differs. One of the largest vacant units in the 2004 study and occupying a prominent position in the Shopping Centre opposite Asda, is now occupied by Bathstore A previous survey undertaken by Sevenoaks District Council in April 1997 identified a total of nine vacant units within the centre. There has therefore been a reduction in vacancies between 1997 and 2007, which is encouraging for the centre.

6.12 The shopping environment in Swanley is mixed. The open air pedestrianised Swanley Shopping Centre is well maintained and provides a reasonably shopper friendly environment, although architectural quality is not high. Trees and shrubs are located consistently throughout the Centre helping to soften the landscape, whilst hard landscaping in the form of benches, litter bins and street lighting also aid the general environment. The Centre also benefits from a key focal point, which is an attractively paved area surrounded by benches, trees and shrubbery.

6.13 There are a number of sites currently undergoing development in Swanley. Adjacent to Aldi in the north of Swanley, a 3 storey building is currently being erected, this consists of 16 apartments, office space and 25 car parking spaces. We also understand that the new owners of the Swanley Centre are keen to take a more proactive approach and become involved in guiding the future of Swanley. They will be taking a more active management role and investing in the centre. There are a number of possible development options which they may pursue in the future, including an extension to the Asda store; low scale improvements to the existing centre through improving the tenant mix and the current environment; or increasing the density on the site through redevelopment, to provide a more modern mixed use scheme.

6.14 The High Street provides a more limited retail offer, and is largely made up of small service businesses. In general the area has older and smaller shop units located either side of a fairly busy two-way road. Fascias throughout this area are in reasonable condition.

6.15 Overall, the number and variety of shops in Swanley is adequate, although the high proportion of service retailers may be a concern for the future direction and role of the centre. A proliferation of such uses will harm the vitality of the centre, restricting the range and choice of uses represented. The centre in general is constrained by residential development and major roads. We therefore consider that the only real opportunities for new retail development are through the redevelopment of existing premises or car parks. Edenbridge

6.16 Edenbridge is located in the south west part of the District, approximately 7.5 miles to the south west of Sevenoaks town centre. For the purposes of PPS6, Edenbridge functions as a District Centre, and is accessed via the B2026 which until recently used to run through the town. The Edenbridge by-pass has recently been completed and has removed much of the through traffic from the town centre. The B2026, provides direct access to Westerham in the north, through to the M25 beyond.

6.17 The linear High Street provides the main retail offer and stretches in a north – south direction covering approximately 490 metres. The main car parks within Edenbridge are located to the rear of Somerfield and adjacent to the Co-Op in the south of the centre.

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6.18 GVA Grimley undertook a detailed on-site survey and centre audit in Edenbridge in April 2007. The full centre audit illustrating retailer representation is set out in Appendix 5, and the summary is highlighted here in Table 6.2. Our research highlights that Edenbridge is functioning well in terms of ‘every day’ requirements. The centre contains a general mix of convenience goods units, including two supermarkets (Co-Op and Somerfield), two Off Licences, one Newsagents a butchers and a bakers. Similar to Swanley, the service category dominates the centre with 4 banks, 4 estate agents, three hairdressers, two opticians, a post office and a number of public houses, restaurants and takeaways.

Table 6.2: Retail Composition, Edenbridge

Retail Category No. of Outlets % of Total

Convenience 9 10

Comparison 29 33 Service 38 44 Vacant 11 13

TOTAL 87 100

Source: GVA Grimley On-Site Survey, April 2007

6.19 The centre is anchored by a Co-Op food store located in the south to the rear of the High Street, and a Somerfield located towards the north of the centre on the High Street. The Co-op store opened in 1998 and is a modern, free-standing foodstore. It has a floorspace of approximately 1,115 sq m net and provides 17 aisles and 9 customer check outs. It has a comprehensive food offer including a delicatessen. The Co-Op occupies a prominent location on the new by-pass. Since the opening of the by-pass it would appear that the store has become more of a car based destination with fewer shoppers making linked trips to the town centre. Somerfield is smaller, and more dated, it has a floorspace of 413 sq m net and four aisles.

6.20 There are 29 comparison goods units within the centre comprising 33% of the total provision. Apart from Boots the Chemist and Oxfam Charity Shop all the comparison units are independently owned. These include a number of antique shops, charity shops, pharmacies, florists, household and hardware goods shops. There are no units selling clothing.

6.21 GVA Grimley’s on site survey identified 11 vacant units, accounting for 13% of all units compared to the 2004 study, which identified 10 vacant units. Four of the vacant units are located within the designated primary shopping frontage, whilst three are clustered to the north where Stangrove Road adjoins High Street and a further three are located within the southern section of the centre. In general, the number of vacant sites within Edenbridge is steadily falling. The economic health check of Edenbridge (1999) revealed there to be 14 vacancies in July 1998 falling to 11 in May 1999. This suggests that the overall health of Edenbridge is steadily improving, although the reoccupation of the vacant units within the primary shopping frontage would improve its health even further. It does not appear that the number of vacant units in the centre is declining as a result of the new by-pass, however, there are several large vacant units which are detracting from the centre’s environment. However, on the other hand, there are some signs of investment in the centre such as by the Church where there is a large and expanding antiques centre and new paving.

6.22 In terms of the physical environment, Edenbridge has a number of attractive buildings protected with conservation area designations. However, narrow footpaths are located either side of High Street which can restrict movement and cause problems for shoppers due to the two way road network. The whole

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environment of the centre has been enhanced with the opening of the Edenbridge by-pass, which has removed through traffic and has improved the pedestrian environment for shoppers and visitors to the centre. There is some evidence of under investment in certain shopsfronts, particularly towards the northern end of the centre, this is also where a number of vacant units exist. We also consider that the centre would benefit from new street furniture to enhance the public realm such as new seating, signage (in particular from the High Street to the Co-Op store) and paving.

6.23 In terms of proposals in the pipeline we are not aware of significant schemes coming forward in Edenbridge. We do understand, however, that the Council have been approached regarding changes of use from retail to residential at several locations. It is important that the Council consider these applications carefully in order to ensure that Edenbridge does not lose its important everyday retail and service uses.

6.24 Overall, we consider that Edenbridge is trading adequately, with a range of convenience and service facilities, suggesting that the centre is serving its catchment for a full range of ‘everyday’ requirements. Westerham

6.25 Westerham is the closest centre to Sevenoaks town centre, approximately 4.5 miles to the west, Edenbridge is located 5 miles south and Swanley 9 miles north. The centre is accessed via the A25 which provides direct access onto junction 5 of the M25. The centre is a compact historical village, with the main retail offer extending from High Street onto Market Square and extending out along Vicarage Hill. Car parking within the centre is principally located on the northern side of Market Square, with 20 designated off street spaces available. Further on street parking is provided along certain sections of High Street and around The Green.

6.26 GVA Grimley undertook a detailed on-site survey and centre audit in Westerham in April 2007. The full centre audit illustrating retailer representation is set out in Appendix 5, and the summary is highlighted here in Table 6.3. Our research highlights that Westerham is functioning well with a number of specialist shops which attract visitors from beyond its surrounding residential areas. The centre contains only 4 convenience goods units, following the recent closure of the Spar store on the Green. The convenience provision now consists of a Co-op, a butchers/greengrocers, off licence and CTN store. The service category is more dominant within the centre with the main activities being estate agents, hairdressers, restaurants and public houses. The number of financial services in Westerham has increased since the 2004 study and there are now two banks and a building society in the centre.

Table 6.3: Retail Composition, Westerham

Retail Category No. of Outlets % of Total

Convenience 4 6

Comparison 32 44 Service 34 47 Vacant 2 3

TOTAL 72 100

Source: GVA Grimley On-Site Survey, April 2007

6.27 Unlike the other two District Centres comparison units occupy a large proportion of the total units (44%) in Westerham. The principal activities include units selling antiques, gifts, interior decorations, furniture, flowers

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Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

and ladies clothing. The remaining provision consists of units selling art, books, shoes and home entertainment. In general, we consider that Westerham provides a varied range of upmarket comparison goods for both the tourist and local catchment.

6.28 Our on site survey also revealed there to be only two vacant units in Westerham. There has been a take-up of units since the previous study in 2004 with Lavendar and Linen opening a second bigger shop on the Green and a new country clothing store has opened on Vicarage Hill. Several other units have closed and have been re-occupied, which reflects a healthy centre. The most recent vacancy in the centre is the closure of the Spar supermarket on the Green. A previous survey undertaken by Sevenoaks District Council in June 1997 found there to be a total of four vacant units, whilst a similar survey in 1999 revealed all but one of the premises had been occupied. In general, over the last decade, the vacancy rate in Westerham has remained low and fairly consistent which is a positive indicator for the centre.

6.29 The centre is protected by Conservation Area status which helps to provide a high quality, safe and pleasant environment in which to shop. Shops fronts and street paving are well maintained and supplemented by high quality street furniture in the form of benches, litter bins, trees and street lighting. Hanging baskets and flowers on shops fronts, aid the environment and suggest continued on going investment to maintain the quality of the environment. A pleasant grassed area of open space to the west of the centre, around The Green, also enhances the physical environment.

6.30 In general, we consider that Westerham provides a good range of ‘everyday’ goods to meet the needs of the local catchment, however the convenience offer has become even more limited following the recent closure of the Spar supermarket on the Green. The centre is smaller than both Swanley and Edenbridge and is different by not only serving a local service area function, but also by drawing tourists who are attracted to the centre’s restaurants and more unique shops selling antiques and upmarket household goods. Villages and Local Centres

6.31 The Local Plan considers that the protection and promotion of local shops and services is vital for the rural economy and for rural communities. Therefore in order to assess and fully understand the role of village and local centres and qualitative deficiencies present within the District we have drawn on the household survey and other data sources provided by Sevenoaks District Council. This includes a full audit, undertaken by the Council, detailing the number of food retailers present within each village centre (Appendix 8). For the purposes of PPS6, New Ash Green and Riverhead are currently designated as Local Centres, whilst all the other centres are designated as Village Centres. Plan 12 indicates the location of all the centres in the District, in relation to the other larger centres of Sevenoaks, Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham.

6.32 It is evident from the Household Telephone Survey that across all the Zones 84.7% of the total respondents use local facilities for shops and services. The Zones with the highest proportion of respondents using local facilities are Zones 1, 3, 8 and 9, these all contain over 90% of local facility usage. The Zones with the lowest proportion of people using local facilities are Zones 2 (71.6%), 6 (74%) and 14 (72%). This pattern of usage largely reflects the facilities available.

6.33 The main reason for people not using local facilities are that they are not available or there is a lack of choice. In Zone 2, 33% of respondents do not use local facilities because they are not available and 24% indicated that there is a lack of choice of facilities. Within Zone 6, 53.8% of respondents also cited the lack of choice of

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facilities as the key reason for not using local facilities. Whilst, within Zone 14, 28.6 % of respondents considered that the facilities needed are not available and the same figure believed there were better facilities elsewhere.

6.34 It would appear from examining the Household Survey that the most visited centres in the District are within or just beyond the 10 minute catchment of Sevenoaks. These include Sevenoaks Weald, Seal, Kemsing and Halstead. Whilst other popular villages are West Kingsdown and Swanley Village, the Council’s audit indicates that there are no food stores within these centres.

6.35 In order to examine whether there are any deficiencies in convenience shopping provision in the villages in the District we have mapped the level of provision in each village, drawing on the District Council’s audit. The level of convenience provision within villages is illustrated on Plan 12. The plan reveals that the southern part of the District is more deficient in convenience stores per village, than the northern part. For example, the centres of Chiddingstone, Chiddingstone Hoath, Fordcombe, Hever and Cowden contain no food retailer provision. In contrast, centres north of the M26 with three or more food stores, include Kemsing, New Ash Green, Hartley, South Darenth, Hartley and Eynsford.

6.36 To take our analysis a stage further we have examined the extent to which residents of village’s convenience shopping needs are met by the main centres in the District, particularly where there are no local facilities available. In order to do this we have plotted 5 and 10 minute drive time catchments from each of the main centres. These catchments are illustrated on Plan 13.

6.37 It is evident that in the south west part of the District, Edenbridge provides residents of the villages with access to a reasonable range of convenience facilities. The 5 minute drive time plan catchment of Edenbridge includes Hever, whilst the 10 minute drive time includes Cowden and Four Elms (Plan 13). As such there is only a deficit in the south east part of the District, where residents of Chiddingstone, Chiddingstone Hoath and Fordcombe do not have access to either local facilities or are within a short drive of a larger centre in the district. Fordcombe is, however, within the 10 minute catchment of Tunbridge Wells. This therefore only leaves the villages of Chiddingstone and Chiddingstone Hoath with something of a deficiency in access to convenience shopping facilities.

6.38 The 5 minute drive time catchment of Westerham includes Brasted and Crockham Hill and the 10 minute drive time catchment includes Sundridge. To the east the drive time catchment of Westerham overlaps with that of Sevenoaks. The good road links of Sevenoaks means that it is readily accessible to a number of villages and local centres, including Bessels Green, Riverhead, Chipstead, Dunton Green, Ide Hill, Sevenoaks Weald, Seal, Otford, Chevening and Knockholt. As such none of the village residents in the more central part of the District have any deficiency in access to convenience shopping facilities.

6.39 In the northern part of the District the drive time catchment of Swanley incorporates a number of village centres. The 5 minute drive time extends as far south as Crockenhill and Farningham and as far north as Hextable and Swanley Village. The 10 minute drive time includes the villages of Eynsford, Horton Kirby, South Darenth and West Kingsdown.

6.40 There are some northern / north eastern parts of the District with villages which lie outside the 10 minute drive time catchment of Swanley and Sevenoaks, these include New Ash Green, Hartley, Fawkham Green, Ash, Kemsing and Shoreham. A number of these villages have existing convenience provision, including in New

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Ash Green a Budgens supermarket with a floor area of 687 sq m net. The only villages without any local facilities or a short drive to a larger centre in the District are Fawkham Green and Ash. Table 6.4 details the full list of village centres throughout the District that are beyond a 10 minute drive time from the larger centres and highlights the four villages that do not have any local provision.

Table 6.4: Villages beyond a 10 minute Drive Time

Sevenoaks District Council – Village/Local Centres

Access to local convenience provision No Local Convenience Provision

Hartley Fawkham Green

Kemsing Ash New Ash Green Chiddingstone Penshurst Chiddingstone Hoath Shoreham Fordcombe Chiddingstone Causeway

Summary

• Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham are the principal shopping centres outside Sevenoaks town centre and are considerably smaller in scale. Each centre has been assessed against a range of health check indicators drawing on data provided by Experian, detailed on-site surveys undertaken by GVA Grimley and Sevenoaks District Council.

• Swanley is located within close proximity to the main road network and appears to function as a convenience shopping and service centre, dominated by a large Asda store which anchors the Swanley Centre. Swanley also has a popular weekly market with over 50 stalls, which complements the retail offer and attracts people to the centre. Edenbridge largely functions in a similar role, providing for convenience shopping as well as a range of service facilities. The range of main food shopping facilities in Edenbridge is slightly more limited. Whilst it has a modern free-standing Co-op, this is not a large fully conforming food superstore. Westerham acts as a district centre, providing a good range of ‘everyday’ facilities but also functioning as a tourist centre with a unique array of comparison units and quality restaurants and cafés. The quality of Westerham’s environment is also of a higher standard than in Edenbridge and Swanley with clear signs of investment.

• There is more of a deficit in local convenience stores, in the southern part of the District than the northern part. We have identified two areas where residents do not have access to either local facilities and are not within a short drive of a larger centre. These include the south-east part of the District where residents of Chiddingstone and Chiddingstone Hoath are beyond a 10 minute drive time of any key centres and have no access to any local convenience facilities. In the north-east, the village centres of Fawkham Green and Ash have no immediate access to any local convenience facilities.

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7. SEVENOAKS QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT

7.1 In this section, we examine the current performance of Sevenoaks, including both the town centre and out of centre provision and assess the quantitative expenditure capacity to support further floorspace. In the next section, we assess the smaller centres of Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham. The quantitative assessment forms a key input into our consideration of the need for further retail floorspace in the period to 2026. The capacity tables accompanying this assessment for convenience and comparison goods are attached in the respective appendices, 6 and 7.

7.2 In order to carry out our quantitative assessment we have used a conventional and widely accepted step-by- step methodology. This draws upon the results of a Household Telephone Interview Survey of existing shopping patterns which enables us to model the existing flows of available expenditure to each retail destination. To summarise, we have completed the following steps:

• Calculated the total amount of convenience and comparison goods expenditure which is available within the postcode areas comprising the Sevenoaks catchment area;

• Allocated the available expenditure to the convenience and comparison goods shopping destinations, on the basis of the Household Telephone Survey of Shopping Patterns, so as to provide estimates of current sales and forecasts of future sales;

• Compared the total expenditure attracted to each shopping destination with current retail floorspace, to assess sales densities in each shopping destination.

7.3 Once we have established this baseline position, we have explored the capacity for further retail floorspace, having regard to the performance of existing facilities and where appropriate, the potential to change the patterns of market shares to support new development. Data Inputs

i) Survey Area and Household Survey

7.4 In order to provide detailed factual information on the shopping patterns in Sevenoaks, we based our updated assessment on the previous household survey undertaken in 2004 which covered 1000 households. GVA Grimley designed the survey questionnaire in consultation with Sevenoaks District Council, and Research and Marketing Ltd, the market research company that undertook interviewing and data processing.

7.5 The survey sought to determine shopping habits of households for both convenience and comparison goods. Where necessary, the survey results have been re-based to remove inappropriate responses, such as ‘don’t shop for particular goods’ or ‘internet shopping’. For convenience goods, the Household Telephone Survey included questions on main food and top up food shopping. The results of the two types of food expenditure were then merged through the application of a weight which reflects the estimated proportion of expenditure accounted for by each type. For food we use a 75% main food / 25% top up food weighting. This forms a composite pattern of convenience spending, expressed as a market share for each destination centre or foodstore, for each survey Zone.

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7.6 The survey also includes five questions on specific comparison goods types which coincide with Experian Business Solutions definitions of comparison goods expenditure. The retail needs modelling exercise uses the weighted averages of the Household Survey responses for each goods type based on the proportion of per capita expenditure on that goods type. This process establishes the pattern of spending for residents of each Zone in terms of the following types of goods:

• Clothes and shoes;

• Furniture, floor coverings and household textiles;

• DIY and decorating goods;

• Domestic electrical appliances;

• Personal/luxury goods.

7.7 The survey area is illustrated on Plan 1.

ii) Estimates of Population in the Survey Area

7.8 Population estimates and forecasts for each of the survey Zones were prepared from the Experian E-Marketer in-house system. This provides estimates of population in 2007, 2011, 2017. The Experian data is based upon trend line projections and the 2001 Census for small, localised areas. Using these projections we have estimated the population in 2022 and 2026, naturally these latter estimates should be taken with caution.

7.9 Overall, the population of the whole survey area is currently 376,248. It is forecast to rise to 398,655 by 2017 again to 421,966 by 2026, an overall increase of 12%. (Table 1, Appendix 6).

iii) Available Expenditure in the Survey Area

7.10 The Experian E-Marketer system also provides an estimate of per capita expenditure for convenience and comparison goods expenditure in 2005 prices. We have made deductions for special forms of trading which represent expenditure not available to spend in the shops.

7.11 We have currently applied uniform per capita expenditure figures across the survey area. While this may mask localised variations in available spend, it enables a comparison on the same basis across the whole area.

7.12 In terms of expenditure growth in the District, we have drawn on convenience and comparison goods growth rates provided by Experian Business Solutions. These indicate that more growth will take place on comparison goods as opposed to convenience goods; the scope to purchase more food is more limited than the scope to purchase more non-food goods. Experian Business Solutions estimate a convenience goods growth rate of 0.7% per annum and a comparison goods growth rate of 3.8% per annum.

7.13 In terms of convenience goods, the per capita expenditure per Zone has been applied to the population forecasts, which indicates that total available convenience expenditure within the survey area is currently £614.1m This is forecast to grow to £689.3m by 2017 and again to £775.9m by 2026. This equates to an overall growth of £168.1m between 2007 and 2026 (Table 2, Appendix 6)

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7.14 In terms of comparison goods, the total available comparison goods expenditure within the survey area is currently £1,146.9m, and is forecast to grow to £2,498.4m by 2026 (Table 3, Appendix 7). This equates to an overall growth of £1,351.6m between 2007 and 2026.

iv) Floorspace Data

7.15 The comparison and convenience goods floorspace data used in our modelling has been drawn from the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) report, Sevenoaks District Council and Experian Goad. Our floorspace assumptions for the foodstores include, where appropriate an adjustment to identify the proportion of purely convenience goods floorspace. Most superstores include a proportion of non-food floorspace; we have adjusted the net floorspace to identify the proportion of sales space allocated for convenience goods. This accords with the expenditure data and the expenditure assumptions used. Sevenoaks Convenience Goods Assessment

i) Trade Draw and Performance of Sevenoaks Town Centre

7.16 We have estimated the draw of Sevenoaks town centre for convenience goods (Table 4, Appendix 6). This includes an examination of the trade drawn to Waitrose, Tesco and other smaller and independent convenience stores in the town centre.

7.17 It is evident that the Sevenoaks town centre catchment for convenience goods is relatively focused. The highest trade draw is Zones 1 (32%) and 4 (35%). These Zones largely cover the urban area of Sevenoaks and form the core catchment of the town centre for convenience goods shopping. The town centre also draws some trade from the survey Zones immediately to the west, including 17% from survey Zone 3 and 12% from survey Zone 2 and some trade from the survey Zones immediately to the east including 8% from survey Zone 5 and 7% from survey Zone 6. Beyond these survey Zones Sevenoaks only draws limited trade as there is other foodstore provision in surrounding centres including Orpington, Biggin Hill, Oxted, Edenbridge, East Grinstead, Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells, West Malling, Dartford, Swanley and the out of centre footstore provision in the District.

7.18 Waitrose on the High Street in Sevenoaks has the most significant draw of the convenience stores in the town centre. In comparison, the trade drawn by Tesco on the High Street is much more limited and more similar to the trade drawn by the range of smaller and independent foodstores in the town centre. Whilst the trade drawn to the Marks and Spencer Food Hall is limited, this store has not been open very long and is unlikely to have achieved a mature pattern of trading. In addition the household survey is unlikely to pick up much of the lunchtime trade from which Marks and Spencer will benefit.

7.19 Based on these shopping patterns, we estimate that the total convenience goods turnover of Sevenoaks Town Centre is approximately £30.1 million in 2007. With this level of turnover and a net sales floorspace of approximately 3,033 sq m, Sevenoaks currently has a convenience goods sales density of £9,921 per sq m net. This level of trading is below our estimate of the average sales densities for the foodstores in the town centre (£11,085 per sq m net).

7.20 In terms of the performance of individual stores in Sevenoaks town centre, it is evident that the Waitrose in the town centre is trading adequately and at slightly above company average levels. We estimate that the store

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currently has a convenience goods turnover of approximately £16.1 million, whereas if it was trading at company average levels we would expect the turnover to be closer to £11.7 million. Conversely, the Tesco store in Sevenoaks does not appear to be trading as well as we would expect based upon estimated company average levels. We estimate that the store currently has a convenience goods turnover of approximately £8.6 million, whereas if it was trading at company average levels we would expect the turnover to be closer to £20.2 million. This level of under trading is likely to reflect the lack of investment in the Tesco store, particularly in relation to their extensive out-of-centre offer at their Riverhead store.

7.21 We estimate that ‘other’ town centre convenience stores have a turnover of approximately £5.3 million. We consider that this is an adequate level of trading for these stores, although as the Marks and Spencer store starts to establish itself we would expect turnover to increase. It is therefore evident that the below average level of trading of Sevenoaks town centre is as a result of the poor performance of the town centre Tesco. The effect of this on quantitative capacity is examined below.

ii) Trade Draw and Performance of Sevenoaks Out of Centre Foodstores

7.22 We have also examined the trade draw and catchment areas of the two large out of centre food stores in Sevenoaks, the Sainsbury’s store at Riverside Retail Park, Otford Road and the Tesco store, London Road, Riverhead.

7.23 It is evident from the household shopping survey that the Sainsbury’s store at Riverside Retail Park draws slightly less trade from the catchment area than the Tesco store at Riverhead. Both stores are located within survey Zone 1 and both are to the north of Sevenoaks town centre (Plan 10). The Sainsbury’s store has a market share of approximately 25% in survey Zones 1, 2, 4 and 5. It draws less trade from survey Zone 3, this is however closer to the Tesco store. It also draws some more limited trade (less than 10% in any survey Zone) from six of the other eleven survey Zones.

7.24 We estimate that the Sainsbury’s store currently has a turnover of approximately £32.7 million (Table 7 Appendix 6). Based upon this turnover with a net convenience goods sales area of approximately 3,414 sq m, we estimate that the store has a sales density of approximately £9,578 per sq m net. This sales density is below the level based upon the Sainsbury’s company average sales density (£10,152 per sq m net) and is likely to reflect the competing influence of the Tesco store at Riverhead.

7.25 The Tesco store at Riverhead draws over 40% of trade in survey Zone 1 and over 30% in survey Zones 2 and 3. It also draws approximately 20% of trade in survey Zones 5 and 6 and over 10% of trade in survey Zones 7 and 8. It also has some limited trade draw from four of the other eight survey Zones. We estimate that the Tesco store has a turnover of approximately £49.2 million (Table 7, Appendix 6). Based upon a net floorspace figure of 2,678 sq m this equates to a sales density of £18,334 per sq m net. This level of trading is above the estimated company average sales densities for Tesco (£11,459 per sq m net) and indicates that the store is trading very well.

7.26 Overall, the above average performance of the Tesco store at Riverhead creates surplus expenditure capacity. This is however offset by the poorer performance of the Sainsbury’s store and the Tesco store in Sevenoaks town centre. We explore this further below in examining the overall capacity of Sevenoaks to accommodate further convenience goods floorspace.

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iii) Capacity Forecasts

7.27 Overall, we consider that there will be a proportion of surplus expenditure to support further convenience goods floorspace in Sevenoaks between 2007 and 2026.

7.28 The capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace is highlighted in Table 15, Appendix 6. It is evident that by 2012 there will be £12.6 million of residual expenditure to support new convenience goods floorspace, this is forecast to grow to approximately £29.5 million by 2026. We have converted it into a floorspace figure using a sales density based upon a large store format. We estimate that by 2012 there would be capacity for approximately 1,151 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace, increasing to 2,233 sq m net by 2022 and 2,696 sq m net by 2026.

7.29 We have not specifically modelled a scenario where the town centre Tesco closes, however given its poor performance and the fulfilment of the obligation requiring it to remain open for at least five years after the opening of the Riverhead store, this could be a possibility in the future. We consider that if this were to happen, the focus should be on providing replacement provision such as another convenience store or a discount foodstore, for which there is retailer demand.

7.30 The proposed extension to the Tesco store at Riverhead is largely for non-food goods. It is proposed to add approximately 161 sq m of net convenience goods floorspace. Based on company average sales densities we estimate that this would be equivalent to a turnover of approximately £2million. In purely quantitative terms there would therefore be sufficient residual expenditure to support the proposed food element of the extension. However, as explored further in Section 9, it has to be considered in terms of qualitative need, scale, the sequential approach and the likely impact on existing retailers. Comparison Goods Assessment

i) Trade Draw and Performance of Sevenoaks Town Centre

7.31 Table 4, Appendix 7 indicates the trade draw of Sevenoaks town centre for comparison goods. It is evident that Sevenoaks draws less comparison goods trade than it does convenience goods trade, particularly when the draw to both town centre and out of centre facilities is examined. In the core catchment Zones 1 and 4 all comparison goods facilities attract approximately half of comparison goods expenditure whereas convenience goods facilities attract almost all of comparison goods expenditure.

7.32 In examining the comparison goods trade drawn to the Sevenoaks town centre it is evident that survey Zones 1 and 4 form the core catchment. In these Zones Sevenoaks attracts 33% and 27% of comparison goods trade (Plan 11). Survey Zones 2, 3 and 5 form a secondary catchment attracting between 21% and 15% of comparison goods trade. Sevenoaks attracts approximately 7% of comparison goods trade from survey Zones 6 and 7. Beyond these Zones the trade drawn to Sevenoaks town centre is negligible.

7.33 Tables 7.1 and 7.2 indicate the draw of the main shopping destinations competing with the core catchment of Sevenoaks town centre for comparison goods trade. It is evident that the most competition arises in the clothing, furniture, DIY and electrical goods sectors. In the clothing sector the main locations competing with the core catchment of Sevenoaks are Bluewater shopping centre, Tunbridge Wells town centre, Bromley town

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centre and London’s West End. The competitors are similar in the furniture sector, although the retail warehouses in Tunbridge Wells also have a draw. In the more bulky DIY and electrical goods sector the main destination competing with Sevenoaks town centre is Otford Road Retail Park. The survey results show the strength of Sevenoaks in the personal and luxury goods sector, despite the competition from Bluewater.

Table 7.1 Trade Draw in Survey Zone 1 for Comparison Goods

Personal & Clothing Furniture DIY Electrical Luxury

Sevenoaks 28.6% 28.4% 22.8% 22.4% 50.0%

Bluewater 17.3% 13.5% 5.9% 9.5%

Bromley Town Centre 8.2% 2.7% 3.6%

Tunbridge Wells Town Centre 19.4% 6.8% 2.4% 8.3%

London West End 8.2% 10.7%

Tunbridge Wells Retail Wareh. 9.5%

Otford Road Retail Park 2.7% 53.2% 43.5% Source: Sevenoaks Household Interview Survey, November 2004

Table 7.2 Trade Draw in Survey Zone 4 for Comparison Goods

Personal & Clothing Furniture DIY Electrical Luxury

Sevenoaks 20.6% 20.0% 23.0% 15.6% 47.7%

Bluewater 19.1% 16.4% 7.8% 13.8%

Bromley Town Centre 5.9% 1.8% 1.6% 3.1%

Tunbridge Wells Town Centre 20.6% 10.9% 1.6% 7.7%

London West End 13.2% 3.6% 1.6% 10.8%

Tunbridge Wells Retail Wareh. 9.1% 3.3% 6.2%

Otford Road Retail Park 7.3% 36.1% 42.2% 3.1%

Source: Sevenoaks Household Interview Survey, November 2004

7.34 On the basis of current market shares, we estimate that Sevenoaks town centre currently has a comparison goods turnover of approximately £60.3 million (Table 5, Appendix 7). With an existing shop floorspace of approximately 9,505 sq m net, we estimate that Sevenoaks town centre has a sales density of £6,344 per sq m net. Drawing on our experience elsewhere, we consider that at this level of trading Sevenoaks is performing well, this is despite the extensive competition from neighbouring shopping destinations.

ii) Trade Draw and Performance of Sevenoaks Retail Warehousing

7.35 Sevenoaks has two relatively modest retail warehouse parks located in close proximity to each other to the north of the town centre in survey Zone 1. We have considered the combined draw of these retail parks in order to ensure the most accurate representation of the pattern of retail warehousing shopping. The retail

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parks draw most trade from survey Zones 1, 3, 4 and 5. In each of these Zones they draw between 13% and 19% of comparison goods trade. The trade draw from survey Zone 2 is less because of the competing influence of the Orpington retail warehouses. Outside of these Zones the retail warehouse parks draw some limited trade from all of the remaining survey Zones, with the exception of Zone 11 (Tonbridge).

7.36 We estimate that the Sevenoaks retail parks currently have a combined comparison goods turnover of £43.9 million (Table 7, Appendix 7). Based upon an existing retail floorspace of approximately 6,827 sq m, we estimate that the retail parks have a sales density of approximately £6,430 per sq m net. When compared with company average sales densities for the stores located on the retail parks (£2,075 per sq m net) our assessment highlights that they are trading well.

iii) Capacity Forecasts

7.37 In assessing capacity for future comparison goods floorspace, we have assumed that the efficiency with which existing floorspace is being used will increase over time. Following the application of recent material, we have assumed an annual growth rate in existing sales per sq m of 2.0%. Drawing on our experience elsewhere, in similar sized and performing centres, we have also assumed that new floorspace should achieve sales of approximately £5,500 per sq m net.

7.38 At this stage we have not examined scenarios for Sevenoaks to further enhance its market share. Given the level of competition within the vicinity of Sevenoaks, we consider that it would be challenging for the town centre to considerably uplift market share. Rather we have considered the effect of Sevenoaks maintaining its existing market share. This is likely to become more critical as Sevenoaks faces increased competition within the wider sub-region in particular Fremlin Walk has recently opened in Maidstone and we consider this is likely to impact on the eastern part of the Sevenoaks catchment over the LDF period. Similarly there are a range of proposals in the pipeline to enhance the retail provision in Tunbridge Wells and the offer in Bromley is being improved and enhanced, and there are significant plans in the pipeline for increased retail floorspace in Dartford. In the face of these competing schemes maintaining market share will become more important.

7.39 In preparing our capacity assessment we have analysed existing commitments within Sevenoaks town centre. We have only identified two developments with planning permission and this is to provide a small replacement store in High Street/London Road along with an extension to the rear of 50-52 London Road (Blighs Meadow Phase 1a). Construction is currently underway.

7.40 Our assessment indicates that there will be some limited capacity to support further comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks by virtue of growth in population and available expenditure. We estimate that in the short term, by 2012 there would theoretically be capacity to support an additional 930 sq m net of additional comparison goods floorspace, this would increase to 3,648 sq m net by 2017 and 10,927 sq m net by 2026 (Table 14, Appendix 7). The short term capacity is smaller than the previous Retail Study (2005). This is because of the higher rates of special forms of trading (SFT) deducted from the expenditure.

7.41 Given the level of competition in the surrounding area we consider that the priority for Sevenoaks should be to focus any growth in expenditure on the town centre, maximising the opportunities for replacement or infill development as they arise.

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7.42 We consider the options for addressing this capacity in Section 9, in particular in relation to the proposals for the Blighs Meadow extension and the Tesco extension proposals at Riverhead. Summary

• With the exception of the Tesco store, the town centre convenience goods stores in Sevenoaks are trading adequately. Of the out of centre stores, the Tesco at Riverhead is trading significantly better and at above estimated company average levels, whereas the Sainsbury’s store at Otford Road is not performing as well compared to estimated company averages.

• We have identified some capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period. We estimate that by 2012 there would be capacity for approximately 1,151 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace, increasing to 1,677 sq m net by 2017 and 2,696 sq m net by 2026. There is therefore some capacity to plan for any new convenience floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period.

• There are currently no identified commitments for new convenience goods floorspace in the town centre. Tesco have submitted a planning application to extend their out of centre store at Riverhead, this is mainly seeking to increase the non food floorspace in the store.

• In quantitative terms there is sufficient residual expenditure to support the proposed food element of the Tesco extension. However, proposals for new convenience goods floorspace should be subject to the key quality tests outlined in PPS6, notably need, scale, the sequential approach, impact and accessibility.

• Comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks is trading well, however the centre is likely to come under increasing pressure from competing locations over the LDF period.

• We have identified some capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period as a result of growth in population and available expenditure. We estimate that by 2017, based upon current market shares, there would theoretically be capacity to support an additional 3,648 sq m net of comparison goods floorspace, increasing to approximately 10,927 sq m net by 2026.

• There are currently no significant commitments for additional new comparison goods floorspace in the town centre. There are however, proposals in the pipeline to extend the Blighs Meadow shopping scheme.

• We consider the scope for new development in Section 9.

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8. SMALLER CENTRES QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT

8.1 In this Section, we set out the results of our quantitative assessment of the smaller centres in the District. Drawing on the new household telephone interview survey, we have assessed the performance of the main convenience goods stores in Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham. We have also considered the current comparison goods performance of Swanley and the capacity for new floorspace. The assessment draws on the data inputs set out in Section 7 and the capacity tables set out in appendices 6 and 7.

i) Swanley Convenience Goods Assessment

8.2 We have estimated the trade drawn to Swanley for convenience goods (Table 8, Appendix 6). This largely reflects the trade drawn to the Asda superstore in Swanley, although there is some limited trade attracted to local convenience stores. The catchment area of Swanley focuses on survey Zone 14, where it attracts 61% of convenience goods trade. Swanley also attracts 25% of convenience goods trade from survey Zone 5, which despite its proximity to Sevenoaks is relatively accessible to Swanley. Swanley also draws some more limited trade from survey Zone 6 which is to the south east and survey Zones 15 to the north and 16 to the west. Table 8.1 summarises the key zones where Swanley attracts its highest market shares.

Table 8.1 Trade Draw for Convenience - Swanley

Zone 14 Zone 5 Zone 15

Swanley 61.0% 25.0% 12.0%

Source: Sevenoaks Household Interview Survey, November 2004

8.3 In total we estimate that Swanley has a convenience goods turnover of approximately £56.1 million (Table 9, Appendix 6). This equates to a sales density of £10,596 per sq m net. Compared to our estimate of the average sales density for Swanley of £10,230 per sq m net this indicates that the town centre is performing adequately. The reason for this is largely a result of the performance of the Asda store as very few other convenience stores are identified in the household survey. We therefore consider that the Asda is trading well.

8.4 Overall, given the performance of Asda in Swanley town centre we consider that there is some capacity to support new convenience goods floorspace. Table 16, Appendix 6 highlights the capacity for floorspace in Swanley. It is evident that on the basis of existing market shares by 2017 there will be £8.9 million of residual expenditure to support new floorspace, this is forecast to grow to approximately £17 million by 2026. We have converted this to a floorspace figure and estimate that by 2017 there would be capacity for an additional 894 sq m net of convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 1,708 sq m net by 2026.

8.5 This would not be sufficient to plan for a large new food superstore, however there could be scope for some smaller convenience goods provision to supplement the Asda and the other local convenience stores. The dominance of the Asda store could negate against another operator seeking representation in Swanley,

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conversely it could encourage some operators as Swanley is already attracting significant numbers of food shoppers.

ii) Swanley Comparison Goods Assessment

8.6 Swanley town centre currently draws a very limited amount of comparison goods trade. This is likely to reflect the limited comparison goods offer in the centre and the considerable range of goods on offer in nearby competing shopping destinations. Swanley draws 3% of comparison goods trade in survey Zone 14 and 2% in survey Zone 5.

8.7 Table 8.2 indicates the destinations used by shoppers in survey Zone 14 for their comparison goods shopping. It is evident that the majority of shoppers visit Bluewater for their clothing and personal/luxury goods shopping, other destinations used by shoppers include Bromley and Dartford. The household interview survey also indicates the popularity of Dartford for electrical and furniture shopping and the Dartford retail warehouses for DIY shopping.

Table 8.2 Trade Draw in Survey Zone 14 for Comparison Goods

Personal & Clothing Furniture DIY Electrical Luxury

Bluewater 31.9% 11.1% 8.2% 42.9%

Bromley 18.1% 7.9% 3.3 14.3%

Dartford town centre 20.8% 28.6% 15.6% 27.9% 15.9%

Orpington retail warehouses 7.9% 7.8% 16.4%

Orpington town centre 6.3% 6.6%

Dartford retail warehouses 7.9% 40.7% 6% 1.6%

Sevenoaks town centre 1.4% 1.6%

Swanley town centre 4.2% 7.9% 1.6% 3.2%

Source: Sevenoaks Household Interview Survey, November 2004

8.8 We estimate that of the £89.1 million of available expenditure within survey Zone 14, Swanley currently draws £3 million. When the limited trade drawn from other Zones is also included, overall we estimate that Swanley currently has a comparison goods turnover of approximately £5.3 million. This equates to a sales density of approximately £1,194 per sq m net. Drawing on our experience from other centres elsewhere in the Country, we consider this is a relatively low level of trading, reflecting the limited offer available.

8.9 Based upon existing market shares we do not consider that there is any capacity to support new comparison goods floorspace in Swanley. In Section 9, we review the extent to which market shares could be enhanced to accommodate new development in Swanley.

iii) Edenbridge Convenience Goods Assessment

8.10 We have estimated the trade drawn to Edenbridge for convenience goods (Table 8, Appendix 6). We have considered the trade drawn to the Co-op store, the Somerfield Store and other local and independent

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convenience goods retailers. Edenbridge has a very limited comparison goods shopping function and we have therefore not estimated its comparison goods turnover or the capacity for new floorspace.

8.11 The catchment area of Edenbridge for convenience goods focuses on survey Zone 8, where it attracts 48% of convenience goods trade. Edenbridge also attracts convenience goods trade from all the adjacent survey Zones, including 6% from survey Zone 9, 2% from survey Zone 3 and 1% from survey Zones 10 and 11. It is evident from the results of the household interview survey that Edenbridge draws more trade for top up food shopping than for main food shopping. In particular, the Co-op store in Edenbridge is used by 55% of shoppers in survey Zone 8 for top up food shopping compared with 27% of shoppers in survey Zone 8 for main food shopping. Table 8.3 summarises the key zones where Edenbridge attracts its highest market shares.

Table 8.3 Trade Draw for Convenience - Edenbridge

Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 3

Edenbridge 48.0% 6.0% 2%

Source: Sevenoaks Household Interview Survey, November 2004

8.12 In total we estimate that Edenbridge has a convenience goods turnover of approximately £12.7m (Table 9, Appendix 6). This equates to a sales density of £7,212 per sq m net. Compared with estimated company average sales densities at Edenbridge of £4,347 per sq m net, this indicates that the centre is performing well.

8.13 We have considered the capacity to support new convenience goods floorspace in Edenbridge based upon current market share (Table 15, Appendix 6). It is evident that by 2012 there will be approximately £5.5m of residual expenditure to support new floorspace, this is forecast to grow to approximately £6.8m by 2017 and £7.4m by 2026. We have converted this to a floorspace figure, based upon average sales in a large store format. On this basis we estimate that by 2012 there would be capacity for approximately 552 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 682 sq m net by 2022 and 738 sq m net by 2026.

8.14 The capacity we have identified on the basis of existing market shares would not be sufficient to support a large new food superstore in Edenbridge.

iv) Westerham Convenience Goods Assessment

8.15 Table 8, Appendix 6 sets out the trade draw of Westerham for convenience goods shopping. There is very little convenience goods provision in Westerham and therefore the survey results focus on the trade drawn to the small Co-op Store in the town centre and the other convenience stores. The catchment area of Westerham focuses on survey Zone 3 where the town draws approximately 14% of convenience goods trade. It also draws 2% of convenience goods trade from survey Zone 7. Overall the household interview survey indicates that Westerham falls within the wider convenience goods catchment area of Sevenoaks and residents are in particular using the Tesco store at Riverhead, Sevenoaks for their main food shopping. Table 8.4 summarises the key zones where Westerham attracts its highest market shares.

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Table 8.4 Trade Draw for Convenience – Westerham

Zone 3 Zone 7 Zone 2

Westerham 14.0% 2.0% 0.5%

Source: Sevenoaks Household Interview Survey, November 2004

8.16 In total we estimate that Westerham has convenience goods turnover of approximately £2.4m (Table 9, Appendix 6). This equates to a sales density of approximately £3,810 per sq m net. Drawing on our experience of other similar sized centres elsewhere, this indicates that the centre is performing adequately. Given the limited size of Westerham and the proximity of food stores in Sevenoaks, we consider that any growth in residual expenditure over the LDF period should be focused on existing convenience stores within the centre. We have not therefore identified any capacity for further convenience goods floorspace in Westerham. Summary

• We estimate that the Asda store in Swanley is trading well and there is some capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace in the centre over the LDF period. This would not be sufficient to plan for a large new superstore, however, there could be scope for some smaller scale convenience goods provision to supplement the Asda and other local stores.

• Swanley currently attracts very little comparison goods trade and on the basis of existing market shares there is no capacity to support further comparison goods floorspace. We consider the scope to which market shares could be enhanced to support new development in Section 9.

• Whilst we consider that existing convenience goods retailers in Edenbridge are performing well, we have only identified limited capacity for new convenience goods floorspace on the basis of existing market shares

• We have not identified any capacity for new convenience goods floorspace in Westerham. Westerham has a limited convenience goods shopping function and falls within the wider convenience goods catchment area of Sevenoaks.

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9. SCOPE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT

9.1 In this Section, we consider the scope for accommodating new retail development in the District. We have drawn on our qualitative and quantitative analysis, and our site surveys. We have also had discussions with the owner and centre manager of the Blighs Meadow shopping scheme, the District Council’s consultant’s working on Blighs Meadow and the consultant’s working on behalf of the new owners of the Swanley Centre.

9.2 We examine each of the centres assessed in this report in turn. Sevenoaks

9.3 Our assessment of Sevenoaks has identified a healthy town centre, with a low vacancy rate, rising rental levels and growing retailer demand. The centre currently has a good range and choice of comparison goods retailers, supplemented by bulky goods retail warehousing provision in two retail parks. The convenience goods provision is also good with a range of town centre stores and two out-of-centre food superstores. The Sainsbury’s store at Otford Road is larger than the Tesco store at Riverhead and has been refurbished since it opened.

9.4 In terms of our capacity assessment, there is some scope for additional convenience provision in Sevenoaks throughout the LDF period. We estimate that by 2012 there would be capacity for approximately 1,151 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace, increasing to 2,333 sq m net by 2022 and 2,696 sq m net by 2026. We have identified some capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period. We estimate that in the short term, by 2012 there would theoretically be capacity to support an additional 930 sq m net of additional comparison goods floorspace, this would increase to 7,263 sq m net by 2022 and 10,927 sq m net by 2026.

9.5 There is currently one commitment for new comparison floorspace in Sevenoaks town centre. This relates to an extension to Blighs Meadow (Phase 1a) which is currently under construction. The first part of this has recently been constructed which involved adding a new unit on the vacant site. This is unit is now occupied by Robert Dyas. The second part of this scheme, which is currently under construction, will add some further floorspace to the rear of 50-52 London Road. The Council have informed us that the proposals will provide approximately 742 sq m gross of additional retail floorspace.

9.6 We understand there are two further proposals for new floorspace in Sevenoaks. We understand the first proposal relates to extending Blighs Meadow further with one option for the site currently being examined by Waitrose. This would involve moving from their existing store in the south of the centre on to the Blighs Meadow site and enlarging the size of the store. There are a number of issues which need to be resolved including the provision of underground parking and the relocation of the social club. If Waitrose do not go ahead with the relocation we understand that they will investigate the possibility of reconfiguring their existing store and car park to gain additional floorspace. It is unclear the precise level of comparison floorspace that is proposed on the site.

9.7 The other proposal in the pipeline for Sevenoaks is out of centre and involves a proposed extension to the Tesco store at Riverhead. With regards to the floorspace split of the proposed extension, we understand that

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the additional floorspace will involve a convenience goods net increase of 168 sq m. The largest increase in floorspace is however within the non-food goods category with Tesco intending to introduce a range of products to the store including ‘infotainment’ goods, cookshop and homeshop products, baby and children’s goods along with clothing and seasonal ranges. This non-food element of the extension will result in an increase of 1,008 sq m net bringing the non-food element of the store up to 1,184 sq m net. We understand that the application was recently refused at committee and that the applicants are taking this to appeal.

9.8 In terms of the proposals for further non-food floorspace provision at the Tesco at Riverhead, in purely quantitative terms there is sufficient expenditure capacity to support the proposed floorspace. However, in the short term, the capacity assessment has only identified a relatively moderate amount of expenditure growth to support new floorspace, and the proposed Tesco extension would absorb a large proportion of this in the period up to 2012. In order to be compatible, the proposed extension should meet an identified need, for which no more central sites are identified, and not undermine the current vitality of the town centre.

9.9 In the first instance, the District Council will need to fully explore the potential of other sites, for example the Blighs Meadow Phase 2 site, to accommodate a more significant scale of retailing than is currently emphasised. Our capacity exercise illustrates that there would be scope to support further convenience floorspace in Sevenoaks. Apart from the small increase in convenience floorspace proposed in the Tesco store at Riverhead, currently at appeal, there are no other proposals in the pipeline for convenience goods in the area. An extended Waitrose store in the town centre, either in the Blighs Meadow Phase 2 scheme or on the existing site, would seem appropriate provided it complies with PPS6 and Saved Local Plan policies.

9.10 If it is not likely or not possible to accommodate more retail floorspace on the Blighs Meadow site within a reasonable period of time, the District Council could consider supporting the extension of an out of town store. It would be advisable for the Council to review all sites both within and on the edge of the town centre for potential further retail led development. There are indications of a need for additional floorspace to increase trade retention within the Sevenoaks catchment and improve the quality food superstores within Sevenoaks. Swanley

9.11 Our assessment has indicated that Swanley is performing adequately as a convenience goods and services centre. The centre is also supplemented by a popular market which operates on Wednesdays. The Asda superstore in particular is trading well and there is some capacity for further convenience goods floorspace. This would not be sufficient to plan for a large new food superstore, however there could be scope for an extension to Asda and/or some smaller convenience goods provision to supplement the Asda and the other local convenience stores.

9.12 In terms of comparison goods shopping, our assessment has determined that the majority of available comparison goods expenditure within the Swanley catchment is spent in competing centres. On the basis of existing market shares, there is no capacity to support further floorspace. The scope for new development is therefore dependant on the extent to which the market share of Swanley for comparison goods could be enhanced by clawing back some of the circa £90 million of trade that is currently leaking to competing destinations. In practice, given the level of competition in surrounding areas we consider it unlikely that Swanley would be able to claw back significant amounts of trade, particularly in the clothing and luxury/personal goods categories but will depend on the scale and quality of proposals which come forward for the centre.

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9.13 For this reason, at this stage we have not quantified the amount of new floorspace we consider Swanley could accommodate. There are currently few available development sites within Swanley. The centre is largely constrained by residential development and therefore the only real opportunities for new retail floorspace are through the redevelopment of existing premises or car parks. The new owners of the Swanley Centre are seeking to explore development options. These include either an extension to the Asda store or low scale improvements to the existing centre through improving the tenant mix and the current environment or increasing the density on the site through redevelopment, to provide a more modern mixed use scheme.

9.14 We consider that the scale and form of any new floorspace will need to be examined in detail, if any proposals are forthcoming from the new owners of the Swanley Centre. Further town centre development would be supportable in Swanley providing it is appropriate to the scale of the Swanley catchment and that Swanley continues to perform its role in the local shopping hierarchy. In practice there may be scope for Swanley to perform the function of a small town centre rather than a district centre i.e. in between the PPS6 definitions of a town centre and a district centre. PPS6 define town centres as generally the principal centres in a local authority’s area. District Centres are smaller in scale and will generally comprise groups of shops along with a small supermarket or superstore and a variety of non-retail services. The appropriateness of this designation will depend on the proposals coming forward and these will have to be tested to ensure that they are sustainable and consistent with the needs of Swanley’s catchment. Edenbridge

9.15 Edenbridge is currently a reasonably healthy centre, serving a convenience shopping and service function. The Edenbridge by-pass has recently been completed and has reduced the amount of traffic travelling through the centre. Our on site assessment has revealed that the number of vacant units in the centre has not significantly declined as a result of the new by pass. The number of vacancies should, however, be monitored and the Council should focus in the first instance on improving the performance of existing floorspace, through, for example, environmental improvements and accessibility.

9.16 The existing convenience stores are performing well, largely addressing top-up shopping needs. On the basis of existing market shares, we estimate that by 2012 there would be capacity for approximately 552 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 615 sq m net by 2017 and 738 sq m net by 2026. This capacity would not be sufficient to support a modern food store in Edenbridge. We have not assessed capacity for further comparison goods floorspace in Edenbridge because of its limited comparison goods shopping function.

9.17 We consider that there may be some scope to enhance the market share of Edenbridge, clawing back trade that is currently leaking from the catchment to foodstores in the surrounding area. Shoppers in survey Zone 8 currently use a range of foodstores for their main food shopping including the Sainsbury’s at Otford Road Retail Park and the Tesco store at Riverhead in Sevenoaks, Safeway in Oxted, Sainsbury’s in East Grinstead and Sainsbury’s in Tunbridge Wells, in addition to the foodstores in Edenbridge. A new foodstore could therefore better meet main food shopping needs in situ.

9.18 However, we do not consider that there is sufficient available expenditure within the Edenbridge catchment area (survey Zone 8) to support another modern foodstore within the town centre. Our capacity assessment has illustrated that in 2004 there is approximately £20.7m of available convenience goods expenditure within the Edenbridge survey Zone 8. This is only forecast to increase to approximately £22.4m by 2017.

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Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

9.19 The existing convenience stores in Edenbridge currently retain approximately £10m of the available expenditure, with the remaining £10.7m leaking out of the survey Zone to competing shopping destinations. Even if a new store were able to claw back the entirety of this leakage, it would not be sufficient to support a new modern foodstore. Therefore any new foodstore in Edenbridge would either have to draw in trade from a wider area or impact on existing retailers within the town centre.

9.20 We consider that if a new store was of sufficient quality and differentiated enough from the existing top up food shopping offer of Co-op and Somerfield, it could draw trade from a slightly wider area. However, whilst the new Co-op store is likely to prove more resilient to increased competition, the dated Somerfield store could be more threatened by new convenience goods provision and this is something that the District Council would have to consider further.

9.21 Given the scale of retail offer available in Edenbridge we consider that the centre should be defined as a district centre in the local retail hierarchy. Westerham

9.22 Westerham is currently a healthy centre, providing a good range of ‘everyday’ facilities, but also functioning as a small tourist centre with a unique array of comparison units. We have not identified any capacity for new retail floorspace in Westerham and given the constrained nature of this largely historic centre, we have not identified any opportunities for new retail development. We consider that Westerham should function over the LDF period as a district centre in line with Edenbridge, but behind Swanley. Summary

• Overall we have identified limited scope for new retail development in the District, and also few opportunities to accommodate new retail floorspace.

• In Sevenoaks town centre, Blighs Meadow offers the only real potential for further retail development. We consider that proposals for Phase 2 should be a priority and that the District Council will need to fully explore the potential of this site to accommodate a more significant scale of retailing. The Council should a review all sites both within and on the edge of the town centre for further retail led development in order to avoid the future expansion of the current out of centre retail provision.

• It would be advisable for the Council to review all sites both within and on the edge of the town centre for potential further retail led development. There are indications of a need for additional floorspace to increase trade retention within the Sevenoaks catchment and improve the quality food superstores within Sevenoaks.

• The constrained nature of Swanley means that the only opportunities for the provision of new retail floorspace are through the redevelopment of existing premises or car parks. The new owners of the Swanley Centre are seeking to explore development options. Whilst further town centre development would be supportable, it would need to be appropriate to the scale of the Swanley catchment.

• Following the development of the Edenbridge Tannery site there are no significant opportunities for retail development in-centre in Edenbridge.

• We have not identified any capacity for new retail floorspace in Westerham and given the constrained nature of this largely historic centre, we have not identified any opportunities for new retail development.

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Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks Retail Study Update July 2007

10. CONCLUSIONS

10.1 GVA Grimley was instructed in April 2007 to undertake an update of the Sevenoaks Retail Study. The aim of the study is to inform and guide retail planning in the District. In particular, the study is to inform the preparation of the District Council’s Local Development Framework (LDF) and guide future decision making.

10.2 Our findings highlight that Bluewater, Bromley and Tunbridge Wells are the key centres competing with Sevenoaks. Their influence on current shopping patterns in Sevenoaks is unlikely to increase to any significant degree over the LDF period. Although Maidstone currently has the least influence on shopping patterns in Sevenoaks, the centre has recently benefited from the opening of Fremlin Walk which has enhanced the centre’s offer and could attract shoppers away from the eastern and northern parts of the Sevenoaks catchment area over the LDF period.

10.3 Sevenoaks functions as the principal town centre in the District. It is a vital and viable town centre, with a low vacancy rate, rising rental levels and growing retailer demand. The town centre currently has a good range and choice of comparison goods retailers and has benefited from the development of the Blighs Meadow shopping scheme. The convenience goods provision is also good with a range of town centre stores and two out-of-centre food superstores.

10.4 Given the significant polarisation of retail activity over the last twenty to thirty years towards a number of larger dominant regional and sub-regional centres it is important for Sevenoaks and the smaller centres to improve and diversify their retail offer to ensure they maintain and strengthen their position.

10.5 In accordance with PPS6, the District Council should define the primary shopping area in Sevenoaks and maintain a primary shopping frontage policy approach. We consider the frontages could be extended to include Blighs Meadow. It will be necessary to update the frontage policies in accordance with changes to the Use Classes Order 2005 and the introduction of three use classes covering food and drink. The District Council should also consider the introduction of a less rigid policy, reflecting the presence of non A1 uses in the primary shopping frontage. This could involve the introduction of a percentage threshold for A1 uses.

10.6 We have identified some quantitative capacity for additional convenience goods provision in Sevenoaks. We estimate that by 2012 there would be capacity for approximately 1,151 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace, increasing to 1,677 sq m net by 2017 and 2,696 sq m net by 2026. We consider there is capacity for some further convenience floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period.

10.7 We have identified some capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period. We estimate that in the short term, by 2012 there would theoretically be capacity to

66 Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks Retail Study Update July 2007

support an additional 930 sq m net of additional comparison goods floorspace, this would increase to 7,263 sq m net by 2022 and 10,927 sq m net by 2026. This provision should be directed to the principal town centre first i.e. Sevenoaks and it would be advisable for the Council to review all sites both within and on the edge of the town centre for potential further retail led development.

10.8 Swanley is performing adequately as a convenience goods and services centre. In comparison with Sevenoaks it has more of an urban district or service centre function. The Asda superstore in particular is trading well and there is some capacity for further convenience goods floorspace. We estimate that by 2017 there would be capacity for an additional 894 sq m net of convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 1,708 sq m net by 2026. This would not be sufficient to plan for a large new food superstore, however there could be scope for some smaller convenience goods provision to supplement the Asda and the other local convenience stores.

10.9 The majority of available comparison goods expenditure within the Swanley catchment is spent in competing centres and on the basis of existing market shares there is no capacity to support further floorspace. Whilst there is some scope to increase market shares, at this stage we have not quantified the amount of new floorspace we consider Swanley could accommodate.

10.10 The constrained nature of Swanley means that the only opportunities for the provision of new retail floorspace are through the redevelopment of existing premises or car parks. The new owners of the Swanley Centre are seeking to explore development options. Whilst further town centre development would be supportable, it would need to be appropriate to the scale of the Swanley catchment.

10.11 Edenbridge is currently a reasonably healthy centre, serving as a convenience shopping and services destination. It functions as a district centre, with existing town centre convenience stores performing well, largely addressing top-up shopping needs. On the basis of existing market shares we estimate that by 2012 there would be capacity for approximately 552 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 682 sq m net by 2022 and 738 sq m net by 2026. This capacity would not be sufficient to support a modern food store in Edenbridge. Further convenience goods floorspace could only be supported if market shares were increased.

10.12 Following the development of the Edenbridge Tannery site there are no significant opportunities for retail development in-centre in Edenbridge. We have examined the potential to accommodate a new foodstore in Edenbridge, however, we are concerned about the likely impact on existing retailers.

10.13 Westerham is currently a healthy district centre, providing a good range of ‘everyday’ facilities, and also functioning as a small tourist centre with a unique array of comparison units. We have not identified any capacity for new retail floorspace in Westerham and given the constrained nature of this largely historic centre, we have not identified any opportunities for new retail development.

10.14 Overall we recommend the District Council consider further investigation of the relevance of a Primary Retail Frontage policy approach in the smaller district centres of Edenbridge to Westerham.

67 Sevenoaks District Council Sevenoaks Retail Study Update July 2007

In our experience the definition of Primary Retail Frontages in smaller centres is less appropriate and can become too restrictive.

10.15 Our review of the existing convenience provision in the villages and local centres in the District has indicated more of a deficit in terms of convenience stores per village, in the southern parts of the District than the northern part. We have however only identified two areas of the District where residents do not have access to either local facilities or are within a short drive of a larger centre. These include in the south-east part of the District the villages of Chiddingstone and Chiddingstone Hoath and in the north-east, the villages of Fawkham Green and Ash.

10.16 In general the District Council should seek to protect existing facilities in villages and promote new development as appropriate. In protecting existing facilities it will be necessary to include criteria based policies which ensure the impact of any new development on villages and local centres is assessed.

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PLAN 1

HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY AREA

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 2

SEVENOAKS RETAIL STUDY: STUDY CONTEXT AREA

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 3

COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE LEAKAGE TO COMPETING CENTRES

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 4

COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE LEAKAGE TO COMPETING CENTRES (ZONES 1-5)

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 5

BLUEWATER COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 6

BROMLEY COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 7

TUNBRIDGE WELLS COMAPRISON GOODS MARKET SHARE

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 8

DARTFORD COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 9

MAIDSTONE COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 10

EXISTING RETAIL PROVISION: FOODSTORES AND RETAIL PARKS

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 11

SEVENOAKS TOWN CENTRE COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 12

FOODSTORE PROVISION: VILLAGE CENTRES

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

PLAN 13

DRIVE TIME ISOCHRONES FROM KEY CENTRES

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

APPENDIX 1

MARKET SHARE AND TRADE RETENTION OF COMPETING CENTRES

SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 1 COMPARISON GOODS ALLOCATION % MARKET SHARE

ZONE 1 ZONE 2 ZONE 3 ZONE 4 ZONE 5 ZONE 6 ZONE 7 ZONE 8 ZONE 9 ZONE 10 ZONE 11 ZONE 12 ZONE 13 ZONE 14 ZONE 15 ZONE 16 RETAIL LOCATION % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

1 Sevenoaks 32.6 15.7 21.4 27.2 14.9 6.8 7.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.8 2 Bluewater 9.6 11.9 11.2 12.0 15.2 20.6 0.4 5.4 3.6 0.4 4.6 7.7 35.0 21.7 27.4 10.3 3 Bromley 3.5 16.2 10.3 2.7 5.9 2.4 33.4 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.9 1.6 9.5 4.2 26.1 4 Tunbridge Wells 8.0 1.0 8.5 8.3 4.7 3.0 1.7 26.1 2.3 4.4 27.4 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 5 Dartford 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 9.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.0 13.6 21.5 0.0 6 Maidstone 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.2 15.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 27.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

SUB-TOTAL 54.8 45.4 51.9 51.0 54.9 48.8 43.5 34.4 6.4 5.0 35.2 46.4 40.1 45.2 53.8 38.4

Other 45.2 54.6 48.1 49.0 45.1 51.2 56.5 65.6 93.6 95.0 64.8 53.6 59.9 54.8 46.2 61.6

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Household Survey, December 2004

TABLE 2 COMPARISON GOODS ALLOCATION SPEND (£)

SUB-TOTAL ZONE 1 ZONE 2 ZONE 3 ZONE 4 ZONE 5 ZONE 6 ZONE 7 ZONE 8 ZONE 9 ZONE 10 ZONE 11 ZONE 12 ZONE 13 ZONE 14 ZONE 15 ZONE 16 TOTAL RETAIL LOCATION ZONE 1-5 (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000)

1 Sevenoaks 31,514 2,778 5,702 5,753 4,329 50,077 1,885 3,273 451 0 0 935 0 355 379 0 2,655 60,009 2 Bluewater 9,315 2,100 2,978 2,552 4,435 21,380 5,672 200 2,039 1,744 348 6,154 6,123 28,532 19,312 50,497 15,160 157,160 3 Bromley 3,370 2,861 2,752 572 1,716 11,270 661 15,301 650 209 150 0 1,491 1,323 8,485 7,793 38,434 85,767 4 Tunbridge Wells 7,703 176 2,261 1,759 1,371 13,270 821 794 9,803 1,116 3,503 37,055 7,259 0 0 1,141 0 74,763 5 Dartford 0 127 165 0 2,881 3,172 297 193 0 0 0 0 483 2,409 12,092 39,621 0 58,268 6 Maidstone 1,013 0 0 175 1,224 2,413 4,131 171 0 0 0 3,414 21,580 0 0 0 255 31,963 SUB-TOTAL 52,915 8,041 13,858 10,812 15,956 101,582 13,467 19,932 12,944 3,069 4,002 47,558 36,935 32,618 40,268 99,053 56,504 467,931

Other 43,651 9,659 12,825 10,373 13,126 89,634 14,133 25,903 24,681 44,955 75,947 87,514 42,748 48,808 48,810 84,980 90,819 678,932

TOTAL 96,566 17,700 26,683 21,185 29,082 191,216 27,600 45,835 37,625 48,024 79,949 135,072 79,684 81,426 89,078 184,033 147,323 1,146,863

GVA GRIMLEY Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

APPENDIX 2

RETAILER REQUREMENTS

Retailer Requirements: Sevenoaks

Name Type Retail Category Min Req (sqm) Max Req (sqm)

1 Barnardos Charity Shops Comparison 37 279

2 Body Shop International Plc (the) Cosmetics/Toiletries Comparison 93 93

3 Carpets 4 Less Ltd Carpets/Floor Covering Comparison 557 929

4 Carphone Warehouse Group Plc (the) Service/Specialist Comparison 46 139

5 Cook+Wash Household Accessories Comparison 232 465

6 Debenhams Retail Plc Department Stores Comparison 1,626 2,090

7 Design Fireplaces (Walton) Ltd Service/Specialist Comparison 186 279

8 Hammonds Furniture Ltd Furniture Comparison 93 465

9 Instore Ltd Dept/Variety Stores, Co-ops Comparison 93 372

10 Jessops Ltd Photo Processing/Printing Comparison 74 111

11 Land of Rugs Ltd Carpets/Floor Covering Comparison 232 465

12 O2 UK Ltd Mobile Phones Comparison 74 186

13 One Small Step One Giant Leap Ltd Children's/School Wear Comparison 65 74

14 Pets at Home Ltd Pet Shops Comparison 372 929

15 Ponden Mill Ltd Household Linens Comparison 139 465

16 Poundland Variety/Discount Stores Comparison 232 650

17 Right Price Ltd Household Accessories Comparison 163 279

18 Savers Health & Beauty Ltd Cosmetics/Toiletries Comparison 186 232

19 Scope Charity Shops Comparison 70 465

SUB TOTAL COMPARISON 4,571 8,965

1 Majestic Wine Warehouses Ltd Off Licences/Liquor Convenience 186 465

2 Oddbins Ltd Off Licences/Liquor Convenience 74 232

SUB TOTAL CONVENIENCE 260 697

1 Aquarius Day Spa & Club Service/Specialist Service 929 1,115

2 Better Bookmakers Service 70 186

3 Café Rouge Ltd Café/Restaurant/Bar Service 325 325

4 D&A Opticians Service 93 93

5 David Clulow Ltd Opticians Service 70 93

6 Dollond & Aitchison Ltd Opticians Service 93 139

7 Dominos Pizza Group Ltd Café/Restaurant/Bar Service 93 111

8 Druckers Café Patisserie Service 74 111

9 Esporta Health & Fitness Clubs Leisure/Sports Service 4,645 7,897

10 Frankie & Benny's Café/Restaurant/Bar Service 325 372

11 Geronimo Inns Ltd Public Houses Service 186 465

12 Gourmet Burger Kitchen Ltd Fast Food/Takeaway Outlets Service 139 186

13 Johnson Cleaners UK Ltd Dry Cleaners Service 111 130

14 Kids Inc Leisure/Sports Service 929 929

15 Kidsunlimited Ltd Nursery/Childcare Service 372 650

16 Krispy Kreme Donuts Fast Food/Takeaway Outlets Service 46 372

17 Luminar Leisure Ltd Discos/Leisure Facilities Service 1,394 4,181

18 Natural Café Café/Restaurant/Bar Service 74 149

19 Ortega Ltd Café/Restaurant/Bar Service 325 372

20 Papa Johns (GB) Ltd Fast Food/Takeaway Outlets Service 74 232

21 Piccolino Café/Restaurant/Bar Service 232 557

22 Pizza Hut (UK) Ltd Café/Restaurant/Bar Service 296 325

23 Pret a Manger Ltd Fast Food/Takeaway Outlets Service 79 279

24 Rush Hair Ltd Hairdressers/Beauticians Service 84 139

25 Specsavers Optical Superstores ltd Opticians Service 93 186

SUB TOTAL CONVENIENCE 11,152 19,593

TOTAL 15,982 29,254 Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

APPENDIX 3

PMRS COUNT FLOWS

PEDESTRIAN MARKET RESEARCH SERVICES

SEVENOAKS

2004 PEDESTRIAN FLOWCOUNT

PMRS PEDESTRIAN MARKET RESEARCH SERVICES

REPORT

Survey Date : 7th & 8th May 2004

Weather: Friday : Mild & Cloudy Saturday : Overcast with Light Drizzle

Copyright: PMRS LTD This report is subject to copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without the permission of PMRS. PMRS Sopwell Mill, 61 Cottonmill Lane, St Albans, Herts AL1 2ES Tel: 01727 867 100 SEVENOAKS - 2004 FRIDAY SATURDAY WEEK NO OCCUPIER STREET & ADDRESS NOTE COUNT INDEX COUNT INDEX COUNT INDEX 1 W H SMITH 131-133 High Street 3.06 157 6.99 224 23.65 198 2 HOADS SHOES 107 High Steet 3.42 175 5.91 189 21.95 184 3 ALAN STREEK M/WR 14 Bank Street T 2.58 132 4.68 150 17.08 143 4 NYES CTN 2 Bank Street T 1.95 100 3.12 100 11.93 100 5 DAISY WHEEL OFFICE SERV. 46 London Road 0.78 40 1.08 35 4.38 37 6 RED, YELLOW, BLUE C/WR 69 London Road 0.57 29 0.96 31 3.60 30 7 THE CHOCOLATE SHOP 57 London Road 0.75 38 1.32 42 4.87 41 8 SEVENOAKS ART SHOP 45 London Road 1.08 55 1.68 54 6.49 54 9 FRANCIS CHAPPELL & SONS 27 London Road 1.17 60 1.44 46 6.14 51 10 SARGENT ANTIQUES 26 London Road 1.29 66 2.10 67 7.98 67 11 H SAMUEL 3B Dorset Street T 1.98 102 3.09 99 11.93 100 12 ARTWORKS The Shambles T 0.57 29 1.17 37 4.09 34 13 KNOWLE HOUSE FURNITURE 14-18 London Road 1.08 55 1.23 39 5.44 46 14 SUSANNA L/WR 81-81A High Street T 1.32 68 1.56 50 6.78 57 15 SEVENOAKS FIRES 11 London Road 1.95 100 2.70 86 10.94 92 16 BIKES CYCLES 53 High Street 0.78 40 0.96 31 4.09 34 17 WAITROSE 56-62 High Street 3.15 162 3.33 107 15.25 128 18 J H LORIMER TOYS 78 High Street 2.85 146 3.09 99 13.98 117 19 VACANT 73A High Street 1.89 97 2.88 92 11.22 94 20 QS CLOTHING 93 High Street 3.33 171 4.92 157 19.41 163 21 ICELAND 96 High Street 3.27 168 4.65 149 18.64 156 22 THE OFFICERS CLUB M/WR 112 High Street 2.76 142 5.64 180 19.77 166 23 WOOLWORTHS 126 High Street 3.18 163 5.10 163 19.48 163 24 COUNTRY CASUALS 150 High Street 0.75 38 1.74 56 5.86 49 25 CAFFE PICCOLO 147A High Street 0.99 51 1.92 61 6.85 57 26 PARISA CAFÉ 143 High Street 2.19 112 3.24 104 12.78 107 27 DOROTHY PERKINS 137 High Street T-A 2.34 120 3.81 122 14.47 121 28 ADAMS Bligh's Walk T 2.52 129 4.02 129 15.39 129 29 MOBILE PHONE SHOP Blacks Yard T 2.94 151 4.74 152 18.07 151 30 WHITE JASMINE Brewery Lane T 1.98 102 4.71 151 15.74 132 AVERAGE 1.95 100 3.13 100 11.94 100 Note T - total street/mall width counted RED - busiest recorded footfall Note A - enumerated on adjacent street COUNT - results shown in thousands Note C - count affected by construction work INDEX - percentage of average flow (benchmarked at 100) CENTRE CENTRE - SEVENOAKS - 2004 NO OCCUPIER STREET & ADDRESS PRECISE COUNT POINT LOCATION 1 W H SMITH 131-133 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 2 HOADS SHOES 107 High Steet Pavement width counted on High Street 3 ALAN STREEK M/WR 14 Bank Street Full width of pedestrian walkway counted on Bank Street 4 NYES CTN 2 Bank Street Full width of pedestrian walkway counted on Bank Street 5 DAISY WHEEL OFFICE SERV. 46 London Road Pavement width counted on London Road 6 RED, YELLOW, BLUE C/WR 69 London Road Pavement width counted on London Road 7 THE CHOCOLATE SHOP 57 London Road Pavement width counted on London Road 8 SEVENOAKS ART SHOP 45 London Road Pavement width counted on London Road 9 FRANCIS CHAPPELL & SONS 27 London Road Pavement width counted on London Road 10 SARGENT ANTIQUES 26 London Road Pavement width counted on London Road 11 H SAMUEL 3B Dorset Street Full width of pedestrian walkway counted on Dorset Street 12 ARTWORKS The Shambles Full width of pedestrian walkway counted in The Shambles 13 KNOWLE HOUSE FURNITURE 14-18 London Road Pavement width counted on London Road 14 SUSANNA L/WR 81-81A High Street Full width of pedestrian walkway counted on High Street 15 SEVENOAKS FIRES 11 London Road Pavement width counted on London Road 16 BIKES CYCLES 53 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 17 WAITROSE 56-62 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 18 J H LORIMER TOYS 78 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 19 VACANT 73A High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 20 QS CLOTHING 93 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 21 ICELAND 96 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 22 THE OFFICERS CLUB M/WR 112 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 23 WOOLWORTHS 126 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 24 COUNTRY CASUALS 150 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 25 CAFFE PICCOLO 147A High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 26 PARISA CAFÉ 143 High Street Pavement width counted on High Street 27 DOROTHY PERKINS 137 High Street Full width of pedestrian walkway counted on Bligh's Road side of unit 28 ADAMS Bligh's Walk Full width of pedestrian walkway counted on Bligh's Walk 29 MOBILE PHONE SHOP Blacks Yard Full width of pedestrian walkway counted on Blacks Yard 30 WHITE JASMINE Brewery Lane Full width of pedestrian walkway counted on Brewery Lane SEVENOAKS - RANKED COUNT POINTS based on the indexed flow for the week

250

200

150

100

50 INDEXED PEDESTRIAN FLOW PEDESTRIAN INDEXED

0 1 2 22 23 20 21 29 3 30 28 17 27 18 26 4 11 19 15 10 25 14 8 9 24 13 7 5 12 16 6 COUNT POINTS

WEEK SATURDAY FRIDAY

The 100 index is the benchmark, and refers to the average flow for the centre. Count points with indices greater than 100 have pedestrian flow above the centre's average. EXPLANATORY NOTES

1 The 30 count points are selected from the Goad plan and cover the contiguous retail area. The sites at which the enumeration was undertaken are identified by the fascia and address of the occupier with the exact enumeration point noted in each case. The names of occupiers and their trades are given for identification purposes only : the names cited are not necessarily their full trading names, nor do the trades cited necessarily represent the full extent of their business. Similarly,the streets and street numbers are given solely for the purpose of identifyingthe sites at which the enumeration was undertaken and they do not necessarily represent the postal addresses of the occupiers.

2 The numbers given represent estimates of the total number of pedestrians passing each site over a six hour period between the hours of 10.00am - 5.00pm on Friday and Saturday, and during the whole week (Monday-Saturday). The totals given for Friday and Saturday represent samples which are grossed up by a factor of 30, the reciprocal of the sampling fraction, to allow for the fact that on either day pedestrian movements were counted for a total of 12 minutes out of a possible 6 hours.

3 The numbers given for the whole week are the sums of those given for Friday and Saturday grossed up by a second factor of 2.353 to allow for the days Monday - Thursday which were not enumerated. This latter factor is an average based upon a series of previous counts conducted throughout the week (Monday -Saturday).

4 Unless otherwise indicated, the enumerators are instructed to count pedestrians passing the count point in both directions, with the exception of children under the age of eight, vagrants, post- persons, traffic wardens, police, and delivery men. In the case of vehicular streets, the full pavement width outside the unit indicated is enumerated, and in the case of pedestrianised streets and shopping malls, half or full width is enumerated.

5 The indices given in the table for Friday, Saturday, and the whole week are percentages based upon the average recorded flow of all 30 count points, which is benchmarked at 100 percent. The chart shows the indexed count points relative to the average pedestrian flow, and indicates the locational hierarchy throughout the centre.

© PMRS 2004 Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

APPENDIX 4

CUSTOMER VIEW GRAPHS

What people like most about Sevenoaks

30

25

20

15 %

10

5

0 ABCDEFGHIJKL Option

A: Near to Home / work B: Easy to get to by car C: Easy to get to on foot D: Easy to Park E: Good range of shops F: Good quality products G: Good value for money H: Good quality products I: Attractive environment J: Clean & well maintained K: Nothing very little L: Not too crowded

What people like most about Bluewater

45 40 35 30 25

% 20 15 10 5 0 ABCDEFGHIJKL Option

A: Near to Home / work B: Easy to get to by car C: Easy to get to on foot D: Easy to Park E: Good range of shops F: Good quality products G: Good value for money H: Good quality products I: Attractive environment J: Clean & well maintained K: Nothing very little L: Not too crowded What people dislike most about Sevenoaks

18 16 14 12 10

% 8 6 4 2 0 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Option

A: Too far from work / home B: Difficult to get to by car C: Difficult to get to by bus D: Difficult to park E: Poor value for money F: Poor range of goods G: Poor customer facilities H: Unattractive environment I: Traffic congestion J: Too crowded K: Too many queues L: Don’t like large shopping centres M: Have to pay for parking N: Lack of restaurants O: Limited choice of department stores

What people dislike most about Bluewater

25

20

15 % 10

5

0 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Option

A: Too far from work / home B: Difficult to get to by car C: Difficult to get to by bus D: Difficult to park E: Poor value for money F: Poor range of goods G: Poor customer facilities H: Unattractive environment I: Traffic congestion J: Too crowded K: Too many queues L: Don’t like large shopping centres M: Have to pay for parking N: Lack of restaurants O: Limited choice of department stores comparison Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

APPENDIX 5

DISTRICT CENTRE BOUNDARY PLANS AND AUDITS

EDENBRIDGE - LAND USE SURVEY 2007

Fascia Description Category

Collectables Grandma Attic Antiques Comparison Collectables Daughters Cellar Antiques Comparison Antiques - Hanmores of Edenbridge Antiques Comparison Antiques - Antiques Comparison Antiques - Chevertons Ltd Antiques Antiques Comparison Antiques - Lennox Cato Antiques Comparison Art Shop Art Comparison Dream Bathrooms Bathrooms Comparison Bookshop - The Edenbridge Bookshop Bookshop Comparison Oxfam Shop Charity Shop Comparison Paydens - The Chemist +Post Office Chemist Comparison Boots Chemist Comparison Direct auto service/mobile maintenance Direct auto service/mobile maintenanceComparison Electrical Store - Bradfords Electricals Comparison Florist - Edenbridge Flowers Florist Comparison Florist - Home Maker Florist Comparison Gift Shop - Something Special Gift Shop Comparison Gifts - Great Expectations Gifts Comparison Hardware - Bradfords Hardware Comparison Obvious Improvements - Hardware Hardware Comparison Jewellers - Farringtons Jewellers Comparison The Phone Chamber Mobile Phones Comparison Mobility Shop Mobility Shop Comparison News & Toys Newsagents Comparison Fishing Tackle - Tack & Riding Wear ShopOutdoor Shop Comparison Pet Shop - Contented Pets Pet Shop Comparison Pet Shop Pet Shop Comparison Picture Framers - Joseph McCarthy Picture Framers Comparison Printers & Stationary - Promotion House Printers and Stationery Comparison Three Cooks Bakery Bakery Convenience Butchers - T. Allman Butchers Convenience Newsagents Newsagents Convenience Victoria Wine / Wine Rack Off Licence Convenience Wine Rack Off Licence Convenience Wine Master Off Licence Convenience Shoe repairs & Locks - Cobblers Locks Shoe Repairs Convenience Somerfield Supermarket Supermarket Convenience Sweet Shop - The Chocolate Box Sweet Shop Convenience Lloyds Bank TSB Bank Service Barclays Bank Bank Service Natwest Bank Bank Service HSBC Bank Bank Service Eden Beauty Therapy Beauty Service Beauty Salon - Options Beauty Salon Service Coral Betting Shop Service Leighs Buildings Contractors Builders Service Café - Bridges Café Service Haywards (Cafe) Café Service CAB Citizens Advice Service Oral design technology Dentist Service Dry Cleaners Dry Cleaners Service Estate Agents - Taylor & Test Estate Agents Service Fox & Manwaring Estate Agents Service Ibbet Moseley Estate Agents Service Estate Agents - Langford Rue O'Neil Estate Agents Service Fish & Chips - Master Fryer Fish and Chips Service Tom Bells Fish & Chip Restaurant Fish and Chips Service Fish & Chips - Ozzys Place Fish and Chips Service Barbers / The Nail Bar Hair and Beauty Service Hairdressers - Thatchers Hairdressers Service Hairdressers - Debon Hair Hairdressers Service Options Hair Salons Hairdressers Service Opticians Opticians Service Opticians - T.J Amey Opticians Service Colour Photocopying Printers Service The King & Queen Pub Service The White Horse / Crown Hotel Pub/Hotel Service The Ye Olde Crown Pub/Hotel Service Indian Restaurant Restaurant Service Solicitors Solicitors Service Kebab Take Away - Istanbul Takeaway Service Chinese Take Away - Magic Wok Takeaway Service Balti Takeaway - Edenbridge Balti Takeaway Service Take Away - Hong Kong Diner Takeaway Service Solar Tan Tanning Shop Service Funeral Services - Smith & Sons Undertakers Service Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant - Graves Jenkins (to let) Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant

SWANLEY - LAND USE SURVEY 2007

Fascia Description Category

Bathstore Bathrooms Comparison GC Motors Car Sales Comparison Dawes of Swanley Car Spares Comparison Sharons Card Crafts Cards Comparison Gem Cards Cards Comparison K2 Flooring Carpets & Flooring Comparison Age Concern Charity Shop Comparison Lions Hospice Charity Shop Comparison NCH Charity Shop Comparison Swanley Pharmacy Chemist Comparison Boots the Chemist Chemist Comparison Co-op Pharmacy Chemist Comparison Peacocks Clothing Comparison Longfield Wools Clothing Comparison Supaglazing Doors & Windows Comparison The Door & Window Centre Doors & Windows Comparison CT Jackson Electrical Contractor Comparison Stevens Florist Comparison Paint Brushes Ltd Hardware Comparison Superdrug Health & Beauty Comparison IH Electrical Home Entertainment Comparison The Home Store Household Goods Comparison Discount City Household Goods Comparison Alanby Jeweller Comparison Swanley Pet Centre Pet Shop Comparison Exotic Fish Pets Comparison Birchris Print Printing & Photocopying Comparison Swanley Bakery Baker Convenience Towes Convenience Store Convenience Gibbs CTN Convenience Paperjay CTN Convenience Thresher Wine Shop Off Licence Convenience The Swanley Cobbler Shoe Repairs Convenience Aldi Supermarket Convenience Asda Supermarket Convenience Holland & Barrett Health Food Convenience CAB Advice Centre Service Paintball Games Sidcup Amusements Service Halifax Bank Service Barclays Bank Bank Service Woolwich Bank Service Natwest Bank Service Beautiful Nails Beauty Salon Service Ellis Taylor Beauty Studio Beauty Salon Service Coral Betting Office Service Betfred the Bonus King Betting Office Service Ladbrokes Betting Office Service Tip Top Café Café Service The Café Café Service Motties Café Service Eagle Autos Car Repairs Service China Red Chinese Restaurant Service The Chef Chinese Restaurant Service Yaus Chinese T/A Service Magic Wok Chinese T/A Service Banana Republic Club Service Age Concern Community Centre Service Ocean Express Dry Cleaning Service Kumans Dry Cleaning Service Swan Staff Recruitment Employment Agency Service JW Contract Services Ltd Engineering/Agricultural Service Brookbanks Estate Agent Service Robinson Browning & Jackson Estate Agent Service Halifax Estate Agent Service Your Move Estate Agent Service Kings Estate Agent Service The Step Inn Café Fast Food Restaurant Service Jet Service Station Filling Station Service Superfry Fish Bar Fish & Chips Service Hansons Hairdressing Service Dals Barbers Hairdressing Service Snip-Inn Hairdressing Service The Oaks Health Centre Service West Kent Housing Association Housing Association Service The Clove Indian Restaurant Service Raj of India Indian Restaurant Service NFU Mutual Insurance Office Service Robert Murrell Optician Service The Post Office Post Office Service Lullingstone Castle Public House Service Swanley Sauna & Steam Sauna Service Swanley Working Mens Club Social Club Service Bishop Akers & Co Solicitor Service Spice Take Away Service Swanley Charcoal Grill Take Away Service Multicars Taxi Hire Service Carlton Christie Taxi Hire Service National Express Travel Agent Service Thomson Travel Agent Service Welhm Jones Undertakers Service Doves Undertakers Service Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant

WESTERHAM - LAND USE SURVEY 2007

Fascia Description Category

Apollo Galleries Antiques Comparison Castle Antiques Comparison The Green Antiques Antiques Comparison Vintage Jewels Antiques Comparison Taylor Smith Antiques Comparison The Design Gallery Antiques Comparison London House Antiques Antiques Comparison Barley Read Books Bookshop Comparison Drakes Carpets and Flooring Comparison Elmfield Chemist Comparison Warm Living Fireplaces Fireplaces Comparison Chartwell Florist Comparison Flowers of Westerham Florist Comparison Old Pine Workshop Furniture Comparison Chlesea House Interiors Furniture Comparison Visions Home Entertainment Comparison Steamer Trading Cookshop Household Goods Comparison Lavender and Linen Interior Decoration Comparison Lavender and Linen Interior Decoration Comparison Espirit de Vie Interior Decoration and Lighting Comparison Good Things Interior Decorations Comparison Facets Jeweller Comparison Hopps Ladieswear Comparison Prelude Ladieswear Comparison Wealth of Nations by Judy French Ladieswear Comparison Lizanne Ladieswear Comparison Unique of Westerham Ladieswear Comparison Clementines Ladieswear Comparison Entrenous Laideswear Comparison Amelia Rose Lighting Comparison Orive Fishing and Country Clothing Outdoor Clothing Comparison Manuka Shoes Shoes Comparison L A Larratt Butcher & Greengrocers Convenience Westerham Newsagents CTN Convenience Wine Rack Off Licence Convenience Co-Op Supermarket Convenience Natwest Bank Bank Service Barclays Bank Bank Service Coral Betting Shop Service Nationwide Building Society Building Society Service Food for Thought Café Service Sue Ryder Care Charity Shop Service Coffee Garden Coffee Shop Service Sew Clean Dry Cleaning Service Ibbett Mosely Estate Agents Service Hunters Estate Agents Service Karrison Estate Agents Service James Millard Estate Agents Service Westerham Fish and Chips Fish and Chips Service Clipper Hairdressers Service Barbers Hairdressers Service Fringe Benefits Hairdressers Service Moor Energy Health Club/Beauty Salon Service King's Arms Hotel Hotel Service Tulsi Indian Restaurant Service Hammond Frey Marrington Insurance Office Service Napoli Osteria Pizzeria Italian Restaurant Service Pizza Comodor Pizza Restaurant Service Grasshopper on the Green Public House Service George and Dragon Public House Service Rendezvous Restaurant Restaurant Service Chows Restaurant Service San Basilio Restaurant Service Tudor Rose Restaurant Service Al Patio Comodor Restaurant Service The Deli Sandwich Bar Service Brunswick Law Solicitors Service Sultan Takeaway Service Montien Thai Restaurant Service Westerham Travel Travel Agents Service Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant

Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

APPENDIX 6

CONVENIENCE MODELLING

SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 1 TABLE 1A SURVEY AREA POPULATION FORECASTS POPULATION GROWTH RATES

P O P U L A T I O N GROWTH RATES Survey Postcode 2007 2011 2017 2022 2026 2007-2011 2007-2017 2007-2022 2007-2026 Zone Sector Groupings (%) (%) (%) (%)

1 TN13 1/2/3 TN14 5 28,849 29,084 29,442 29,800 30,086 1 2 3 4

2 TN14 7 5,153 5,140 5,131 5,122 5,115 0 0 -1 -1

3 TN14 6 TN16 1 8,181 8,193 8,221 8,249 8,271 0 0 1 1

4 TN15 0/9 6,082 6,147 6,255 6,363 6,449 1 3 5 6

5 TN15 6 9,177 9,193 9,243 9,293 9,333 0 1 1 2

6 TN15 7/8 8,739 8,808 8,946 9,084 9,194 1 2 4 5

7 TN16 2/3 15,265 15,736 16,403 17,070 17,604 3 7 12 15

8 TN8 5/6/7 12,106 12,235 12,384 12,533 12,652 1 2 4 5

9 RH8 0/9 14,845 15,095 15,299 15,503 15,666 2 3 4 6

10 RH7 6 RH19 2/3 25,740 26,315 26,963 27,611 28,129 2 5 7 9

11 TN11 9 TN9 1/2 TN10 3/4 TN11 8/0 46,011 46,881 48,059 49,237 50,179 2 4 7 9

12 ME19 4/5/6 ME18 5 TN12 5 25,469 26,208 27,189 28,170 28,955 3 7 11 14

13 DA13 0 DA3 7/8 26,166 26,935 27,909 28,883 29,662 3 7 10 13

14 DA4 9/0 BR8 7/8 31,191 31,701 32,420 33,139 33,714 2 4 6 8

15 DA2 7 DA5 2 DA14 5 DA1 1/2/3 DA2 6 63,391 67,079 72,447 77,815 82,109 6 14 23 30

16 BR5 3/4 BR6 6/7/9 49,883 50,970 52,354 53,738 54,845 2 5 8 10

TOTAL 376,248 385,720 398,665 411,610 421,966 3 6 9 12

SOURCE: Experian Business Solutions 2006 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 2 CONVENIENCE GOODS RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECASTS PER CAPITA (2005 PRICES)

GROWTH IN PER CAPITA RETAIL EXPENDITURE: 0.70 %pa 2005-2026

2005 2005 2007 2007 2012 2012 2017 2017 2022 2022 2026 2026

Minus SFT at Minus SFT at Minus SFT at Minus SFT Minus SFT Minus SFT at 1.85% 2.45% 3.45% at 3.5% at 3.5% 3.5%

ZONE 1 1,762 1,729 1,787 1,743 1,850 1,786 1,916 1,849 1,984 1,914 2,040 1,969 2 1,842 1,808 1,868 1,822 1,934 1,867 2,003 1,933 2,074 2,001 2,133 2,058 3 1,776 1,743 1,801 1,757 1,865 1,801 1,931 1,863 2,000 1,930 2,056 1,984 4 1,817 1,783 1,843 1,797 1,908 1,842 1,976 1,906 2,046 1,974 2,104 2,030 5 1,722 1,690 1,746 1,703 1,808 1,746 1,872 1,807 1,939 1,871 1,994 1,924 6 1,745 1,713 1,770 1,726 1,832 1,769 1,897 1,831 1,965 1,896 2,020 1,950 7 1,620 1,590 1,643 1,603 1,701 1,642 1,761 1,700 1,824 1,760 1,876 1,810 8 1,726 1,694 1,750 1,707 1,812 1,750 1,877 1,811 1,943 1,875 1,998 1,928 9 1,709 1,677 1,733 1,691 1,795 1,733 1,858 1,793 1,924 1,857 1,979 1,909 10 1,646 1,616 1,669 1,628 1,728 1,669 1,790 1,727 1,853 1,788 1,906 1,839 11 1,595 1,565 1,617 1,578 1,675 1,617 1,734 1,674 1,796 1,733 1,847 1,782 12 1,677 1,646 1,701 1,659 1,761 1,700 1,823 1,760 1,888 1,822 1,942 1,874 13 1,637 1,607 1,660 1,619 1,719 1,660 1,780 1,718 1,843 1,779 1,895 1,829 14 1,565 1,536 1,587 1,548 1,643 1,587 1,702 1,642 1,762 1,700 1,812 1,748 15 1,553 1,524 1,575 1,536 1,631 1,574 1,689 1,629 1,749 1,687 1,798 1,735 16 1,690 1,659 1,714 1,672 1,775 1,713 1,838 1,773 1,903 1,836 1,957 1,888 Source: Experian

TABLE 3 SURVEY AREA CONVENIENCE GOODS RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECASTS

GROWTH IN PER CAPITA RETAIL EXPENDITURE: Convenience Goods 0.7 %pa 2005-2026

2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) 1 50,283 51,954 54,432 57,049 59,227 2 9,389 9,599 9,917 10,251 10,526 3 14,373 14,752 15,320 15,917 16,412 4 10,932 11,323 11,925 12,562 13,092 5 15,632 16,049 16,700 17,387 17,956 6 15,085 15,582 16,380 17,223 17,925 7 24,462 25,844 27,882 30,045 31,861 8 20,669 21,409 22,428 23,503 24,398 9 25,096 26,154 27,434 28,786 29,912 10 41,911 43,913 46,567 49,379 51,729 11 72,595 75,808 80,430 85,326 89,420 12 42,250 44,558 47,842 51,327 54,250 13 42,371 44,702 47,937 51,371 54,250 14 48,287 50,297 53,236 56,348 58,949 15 97,383 105,613 118,052 131,300 142,466 16 83,392 87,329 92,836 98,673 103,555

TOTAL 614,112 644,887 689,317 736,447 775,929

Source: Tables 1 & 2 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

CONVENIENCE GOODS - SEVENOAKS TOWN CENTRE

TABLE 4 CONVENIENCE GOODS ALLOCATION - % MARKET SHARE

WAITROSE, HIGH STREET TESCO, HIGH STREET OTHER TOWN CENTRE CONVENIENCE STORES TOTAL Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 17 17 17 17 17 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 32 32 32 32 32 2 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 12 12 12 12 12 3 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 17 17 17 17 17 4 24 24 24 24 24 8 8 8 8 8 3 3 3 3 3 35 35 35 35 35 5 11111333333333388888 6 33333222222222277777 7 22222222221111144444 8 22222111110000033333 9 22222222220000033333 10 00000000000000000000 11 00000000000000000000 12 00000000000000000000 13 00000000000000000000 14 00000000000000000000 15 00000000000000000000 16 22222111110000033333 SOURCE: Sevenoaks Household Survey, November 2004

TABLE 5 CONVENIENCE GOODS ALLOCATION - SPEND (£) 2005 PRICES WAITROSE, HIGH STREET TESCO, HIGH STREET OTHER TOWN CENTRE CONVENIENCE STORES TOTAL TOWN CENTRE Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) 1 8,774 9,066 9,498 9,955 10,335 4,123 4,260 4,463 4,678 4,857 3,092 3,195 3,348 3,509 3,642 15,990 16,521 17,309 18,142 18,834 2 514 526 543 561 576 190 194 201 208 213 390 398 412 425 437 1,094 1,118 1,155 1,194 1,226 3 1,125 1,154 1,199 1,246 1,284 852 874 908 943 972 525 538 559 581 599 2,501 2,567 2,666 2,770 2,856 4 2,645 2,740 2,886 3,040 3,168 842 872 918 967 1,008 353 365 385 405 422 3,840 3,977 4,189 4,412 4,599 5 219 225 234 243 251 469 481 501 522 539 508 522 543 565 584 1,196 1,228 1,278 1,330 1,374 6 453 467 491 517 538 226 234 246 258 269 336 347 364 383 399 1,014 1,048 1,102 1,158 1,205 7 367 388 418 451 478 367 388 418 451 478 141 149 160 173 183 875 924 997 1,074 1,139 8 351 364 381 400 415 202 209 219 229 238 0 0 0 0 0 553 573 600 629 653 9 376 392 412 432 449 376 392 412 432 449 0 0 0 0 0 753 785 823 864 897 10 00000000000000000000 11 00000000000000000000 12 00000000000000000000 13 00000000000000000000 14 00000000000000000000 15 00000000000000000000 16 1,251 1,310 1,393 1,480 1,553 1,022 1,070 1,137 1,209 1,269 0 0 0 0 0 2,272 2,380 2,530 2,689 2,822

TOTALS 16,076 16,632 17,455 18,324 19,048 8,668 8,974 9,423 9,896 10,291 5,344 5,514 5,770 6,041 6,266 30,088 31,120 32,648 34,261 35,605

SOURCE: Tables 2 & 3 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007 CONVENIENCE GOODS - OUT OF CENTRE

Table 6 CONVENIENCE GOODS ALLOCATION - % MARKET SHARE

J SAINSBURY, OTFORD TESCO, RIVERHEAD TOTAL Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 24 24 24 24 24 41 41 41 41 41 65 65 65 65 65 2 25 25 25 25 25 33 33 33 33 33 58 58 58 58 58 3 15 15 15 15 15 34 34 34 34 34 49 49 49 49 49 4 25 25 25 25 25 21 21 21 21 21 46 46 46 46 46 5 24 24 24 24 24 18 18 18 18 18 42 42 42 42 42 6 7 7 7 7 7 10 10 10 10 10 17 17 17 17 17 7 5 5 5 5 5 13 13 13 13 13 18 18 18 18 18 8 4 4 4 4 4 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 9 333334444477777 10 000000000000000 11 000002222222222 12 000000000000000 13 000000000000000 14 555551111166666 15 000000000000000 16 4 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 7 7 10 10 10 10 10 SOURCE: Sevenoaks Household Survey, November 2004

TABLE 7 CONVENIENCE GOODS ALLOCATION - SPEND (£) 2005 PRICES J SAINSBURY, OTFORD TESCO, RIVERHEAD TOTAL OUT OF CENTRE Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) 1 12,219 12,625 13,227 13,863 14,392 20,482 21,163 22,172 23,238 24,125 32,701 33,787 35,399 37,101 38,518 2 2,371 2,424 2,504 2,588 2,658 3,080 3,148 3,253 3,362 3,453 5,451 5,572 5,757 5,951 6,110 3 2,145 2,202 2,286 2,376 2,450 4,949 5,080 5,275 5,481 5,651 7,094 7,281 7,562 7,857 8,101 4 2,785 2,885 3,038 3,200 3,335 2,285 2,367 2,492 2,625 2,736 5,070 5,251 5,530 5,825 6,072 5 3,771 3,872 4,029 4,195 4,332 2,767 2,841 2,956 3,077 3,178 6,538 6,713 6,985 7,272 7,510 6 1,120 1,157 1,216 1,279 1,331 1,508 1,558 1,638 1,722 1,793 2,629 2,715 2,854 3,001 3,123 7 1,241 1,312 1,415 1,525 1,617 3,123 3,299 3,560 3,836 4,068 4,364 4,611 4,975 5,361 5,685 8 822 851 891 934 970 2,212 2,291 2,400 2,515 2,611 3,033 3,142 3,291 3,449 3,580 9 753 785 823 864 897 1,004 1,046 1,097 1,151 1,196 1,757 1,831 1,920 2,015 2,094 10 000000000000000 11 0 0 0 0 0 1,452 1,516 1,609 1,707 1,788 1,452 1,516 1,609 1,707 1,788 12 000000000000000 13 000000000000000 14 2,426 2,527 2,675 2,832 2,962 628 654 692 733 766 3,054 3,181 3,367 3,564 3,728 15 000000000000000 16 3,002 3,144 3,342 3,552 3,728 5,671 5,938 6,313 6,710 7,042 8,673 9,082 9,655 10,262 10,770

TOTALS 32,655 33,782 35,447 37,207 38,672 49,160 50,901 53,456 56,157 58,407 81,815 84,683 88,903 93,364 97,079

SOURCE: Table 2 & 7 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007 CONVENIENCE GOODS - DISTRICT CENTRES

TABLE 8 CONVENIENCE GOODS ALLOCATION - % MARKET SHARE

SWANLEY WESTERHAM EDENBRIDGE Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 000000000000000 2 333330000000000 3 1 1 1 1 1 14 14 14 14 14 2 2 2 2 2 4 111110000000000 5 25 25 25 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 666660000000000 7 000002222200000 8 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 48 48 48 48 48 9 000000000066666 10 111110000011111 11 000000000011111 12 111110000000000 13 222220000000000 14 61 61 61 61 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 12 12 12 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SOURCE: Sevenoaks Household Survey, November 2004

TABLE 9 CONVENIENCE GOODS ALLOCATION - SPEND (£) 2005 PRICES SWANLEY WESTERHAM EDENBRIDGE Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 176 182 191 200 207 2 289 295 305 315 324 45 46 47 49 50 0 0 0 0 0 3 140 144 149 155 160 1,962 2,014 2,091 2,173 2,240 345 354 368 382 394 4 107 110 116 122 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3,935 4,040 4,204 4,377 4,520 0 0 0 0 0 66 68 71 74 76 6 905 935 983 1,033 1,076 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 422 446 481 518 550 0 0 0 0 0 8 264 273 286 300 311 0 0 0 0 0 9,968 10,325 10,816 11,334 11,766 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,462 1,523 1,598 1,677 1,742 10 272 285 303 321 336 0 0 0 0 0 272 285 303 321 336 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 417 436 462 491 514 12 243 256 275 295 312 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 636 671 719 771 814 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 29,274 30,493 32,275 34,161 35,738 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 12,003 13,017 14,550 16,183 17,559 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 8,006 8,384 8,912 9,473 9,941 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOTALS 56,073 58,903 63,077 67,506 71,218 2,428 2,505 2,619 2,740 2,840 12,707 13,174 13,808 14,478 15,036

SOURCE: Table 2 & 5 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 10 SEVENOAKS TOWN CENTRE CONVENIENCE GOODS FLOORSPACE Store Net Net Con Net Co Average Average

Flsp Ratio Convenience Sales Turnover

(sqm) (%) (sqm) (£ per sq m net) (£000s)

Tesco, High Street 1,808 90% 1,627 12,435 20,234 Waitrose, High Street 1,235 90% 1,112 10,565 11,743 Marks and Spencer 294 100% 294 9,641 2,834 Other 155 100% 155 3,000 465 TOTAL 3,492 3,033 11,632 35,277

TABLE 11 SEVENOAKS OUT OF CENTRE CONVENIENCE GOODS FLOORSPACE Store Net Net Con Net Co Average Average

Flsp Ratio Convenience Sales Turnover

(sqm) (%) (sqm) (£ per sq m net) (£000s) J Sainsbury, Otford 4,267 80% 3,414 10,152 34,655 Tesco, Riverhead 2,976 90% 2,678 12,435 33,306

TOTAL 7,243 6,092 11,156 67,961

TABLE 12 TOTAL CONVENIENCE GOODS FLOORSPACE Store Net Net Co Average Average Flsp Convenience Sales Turnover (sqm) (sqm) (£ per sq m net) (£000s)

TOTAL 10,735 9,125 11,314 103,237

TABLE 13 DISTRICT CENTRE CONVENIENCE GOODS FLOORSPACE Store Net Net Con Net Co Average Average

Flsp Ratio Convenience Sales Turnover

(sqm) (%) (sqm) (£ per sq m net) (£000s)

Asda, Swanley 5,344 70% 3,741 13,228 49,483

Other stores, Swanley 1,551 100% 1,551 3,000 4,653 TOTAL SWANLEY 6,895 5,292 10,230 54,136 TOTAL WESTERHAM 630 100% 630 3,000 1,890

Co-op, Edenbridge 1,115 95% 1,059 5,239 5,549 Other stores, Edenbridge 702 100% 702 3,000 2,106 TOTAL EDENBRIDGE 1,817 1,761 4,347 7,655

Note: Other stores Swanley includes Aldi SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

CAPACITY PROJECTIONS: CONVENIENCE GOODS

TABLE 14 FUTURE SHOP FLOORSPACE CAPACITY IN SEVENOAKS

CONVENIENCE GOODS

2007 2012 2017 2022 2026

Residents Spending (£000) 111,903 115,803 121,551 127,625 132,684

Existing Shop Floorspace 9,125 9,125 9,125 9,125 9,125 (sq m net)

Sales per sq m net £ 12,264 11,314 11,314 11,314 11,314

Sales from Existing 111,903 103,237 103,237 103,237 103,237 Floorspace (£000)

Sales from Proposed 0 0 0 0 0 Floorspace (£000)

Residual Spending to 0 12,566 18,314 24,388 29,447 Support new shops (£000)

Sales per sq m net in new shops (£) 10,921 10,921 10,921 10,921 10,921 Based on large store format (see note 1)

Capacity for new floorspace (sq m net) 0 1,151 1,677 2,233 2,696

Note 1 - Average Sales Density from largest foodstore formats - Tesco, J Sainsbury = £10,921 per sq m net SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007 CAPACITY PROJECTIONS: CONVENIENCE GOODS

TABLE 15 FUTURE SHOP FLOORSPACE CAPACITY IN EDENBRIDGE

CONVENIENCE GOODS 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026

Residents Spending (£000) 12,707 13,174 13,808 14,478 15,036

Existing Shop Floorspace 1,761 1,761 1,761 1,761 1,761 (sq m net)

Sales per sq m net £ 7,215 4,347 4,347 4,347 4,347

Sales from Existing 12,707 7,655 7,655 7,655 7,655 Floorspace (£000)

Sales from Proposed 0 0 0 0 0 Floorspace (£000)

Residual Spending to 0 5,518 6,153 6,823 7,381 Support new shops (£000)

Sales per sq m net in new shops (£) 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Based on large store format (see note 1)

Capacity for new floorspace (sq m net) 0 552 615 682 738

Note 1 - Average Sales Density from large foodstore format £10,000 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

CAPACITY PROJECTIONS: CONVENIENCE GOODS

TABLE 16 FUTURE SHOP FLOORSPACE CAPACITY IN SWANLEY

CONVENIENCE GOODS 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026

Residents Spending (£000) 56,073 58,903 63,077 67,506 71,218

Existing Shop Floorspace 5,292 5,292 5,292 5,292 5,292 (sq m net)

Sales per sq m net £ 10,596 10,230 10,230 10,230 10,230

Sales from Existing 56,073 54,136 54,136 54,136 54,136 Floorspace (£000)

Sales from Proposed 0 0 0 0 0 Floorspace (£000)

Residual Spending to 0 4,767 8,941 13,370 17,082 Support new shops (£000)

Sales per sq m net in new shops (£) 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Based on large store format (see note 1)

Capacity for new floorspace (sq m net) 0 477 894 1,337 1,708

Note 1 - Average Sales Density from large foodstore format £10,000 Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

APPENDIX 7

COMPARISON MODELLING

SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 1 TABLE 1A SURVEY AREA POPULATION FORECASTS POPULATION GROWTH RATES

P O P U L A T I O N GROWTH RATES Survey Postcode 2007 2011 2017 2022 2026 2007-2011 2007-2017 2007-2022 2007-2026 Zone Sector Groupings (%) (%) (%) (%)

1 TN13 1/2/3 TN14 5 28,849 29,084 29,442 29,800 30,086 1 2 3 4

2 TN14 7 5,153 5,140 5,131 5,122 5,115 0 0 -1 -1

3 TN14 6 TN16 1 8,181 8,193 8,221 8,249 8,271 0 0 1 1

4 TN15 0/9 6,082 6,147 6,255 6,363 6,449 1 3 5 6

5 TN15 6 9,177 9,193 9,243 9,293 9,333 0 1 1 2

6 TN15 7/8 8,739 8,808 8,946 9,084 9,194 1 2 4 5

7 TN16 2/3 15,265 15,736 16,403 17,070 17,604 3 7 12 15

8 TN8 5/6/7 12,106 12,235 12,384 12,533 12,652 1 2 4 5

9 RH8 0/9 14,845 15,095 15,299 15,503 15,666 2 3 4 6

10 RH7 6 RH19 2/3 25,740 26,315 26,963 27,611 28,129 2 5 7 9

11 TN11 9 TN9 1/2 TN10 3/4 TN11 8/0 46,011 46,881 48,059 49,237 50,179 2 4 7 9

12 ME19 4/5/6 ME18 5 TN12 5 25,469 26,208 27,189 28,170 28,955 3 7 11 14

13 DA13 0 DA3 7/8 26,166 26,935 27,909 28,883 29,662 3 7 10 13

14 DA4 9/0 BR8 7/8 31,191 31,701 32,420 33,139 33,714 2 4 6 8

15 DA2 7 DA5 2 DA14 5 DA1 1/2/3 DA2 6 63,391 67,079 72,447 77,815 82,109 6 14 23 30

16 BR5 3/4 BR6 6/7/9 49,883 50,970 52,354 53,738 54,845 2 5 8 10

TOTAL 376,248 385,720 398,665 411,610 421,966 3 6 9 12

SOURCE: Experian Business Solutions 2006 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 2 COMPARISON GOODS RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECASTS PER CAPITA (2005 PRICES) GROWTH IN PER CAPITA RETAIL EXPENDITURE: 3.8%

2005 2005 2007 2007 2012 2012 2017 2017 2022 2022 2026 2026

Minus SFT at Minus SFT at Minus SFT at Minus SFT at Minus SFT at Minus SFT at 6.3% 8.6% 12.3% 12.4% 12.4% 12.4% ZONE 1 3,399 3,185 3,662 3,347 4,413 3,870 5,318 4,658 6,408 5,613 7,439 6,516 2 3,488 3,268 3,758 3,435 4,529 3,972 5,457 4,780 6,576 5,760 7,633 6,687 3 3,312 3,103 3,568 3,262 4,300 3,771 5,182 4,539 6,244 5,470 7,248 6,349 4 3,537 3,314 3,811 3,483 4,592 4,027 5,534 4,847 6,668 5,841 7,741 6,781 5 3,218 3,015 3,467 3,169 4,178 3,664 5,034 4,410 6,067 5,314 7,043 6,169 6 3,207 3,005 3,455 3,158 4,164 3,652 5,017 4,395 6,046 5,296 7,018 6,148 7 3,049 2,857 3,285 3,003 3,959 3,472 4,770 4,179 5,748 5,035 6,673 5,845 8 3,156 2,957 3,400 3,108 4,097 3,594 4,937 4,325 5,950 5,212 6,907 6,050 9 3,285 3,078 3,539 3,235 4,265 3,740 5,139 4,502 6,193 5,425 7,189 6,298 10 3,154 2,955 3,398 3,106 4,095 3,591 4,934 4,322 5,946 5,209 6,902 6,047 11 2,981 2,793 3,212 2,936 3,870 3,394 4,664 4,085 5,620 4,923 6,524 5,715 12 3,177 2,977 3,423 3,129 4,125 3,617 4,970 4,354 5,989 5,247 6,953 6,091 13 3,160 2,961 3,405 3,112 4,103 3,598 4,944 4,331 5,957 5,219 6,916 6,058 14 2,900 2,717 3,125 2,856 3,765 3,302 4,537 3,974 5,467 4,789 6,347 5,560 15 2,948 2,762 3,176 2,903 3,827 3,357 4,612 4,040 5,558 4,868 6,452 5,652 16 2,999 2,810 3,231 2,953 3,894 3,415 4,692 4,110 5,654 4,953 6,563 5,749 Source: Experian

SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 3 SURVEY AREA COMPARISON GOODS RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECASTS GROWTH IN PER CAPITA RETAIL EXPENDITURE: Comparison Goods 3.8 %pa 2005-2027

ZONE 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) 1 96,566 112,561 137,148 167,273 196,051 2 17,700 20,414 24,527 29,504 34,202 3 26,683 30,897 37,315 45,118 52,519 4 21,185 24,756 30,320 37,167 43,732 5 29,082 33,684 40,763 49,386 57,578 6 27,600 32,163 39,319 48,110 56,529 7 45,835 54,630 68,541 85,951 102,898 8 37,625 43,967 53,564 65,321 76,551 9 48,024 56,461 68,876 84,103 98,661 10 79,949 94,503 116,547 143,815 170,087 11 135,072 159,126 196,340 242,389 286,771 12 79,684 94,805 118,381 147,796 176,354 13 81,426 96,914 120,866 150,726 179,696 14 89,078 104,677 128,850 158,707 187,439 15 184,033 225,162 292,698 378,835 464,054 16 147,323 174,049 215,178 266,144 315,329

TOTAL 1,146,863 1,358,768 1,689,236 2,100,344 2,498,454

Source: Tables 1&2 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

COMPARISON GOODS - SEVENOAKS TOWN CENTRE

TABLE 4 COMPARISON GOODS ALLOCATION - MARKET SHARE %

SEVENOAKS TOWN CENTRE Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 33 33 33 33 33 2 16 16 16 16 16 3 22 22 22 22 22 4 27 27 27 27 27 5 15 15 15 15 15 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 1 1 1 1 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 11 1 1 1 1 1 12 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 16 2 2 2 2 2 SOURCE: Sevenoaks Household Survey, November 2004

TABLE 5 COMPARISON GOODS ALLOCATION - SPEND (£) 2005 PRICES

SEVENOAKS TOWN CENTRE Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) 1 31,660 36,904 44,966 54,842 64,278 2 2,777 3,203 3,848 4,629 5,366 3 5,795 6,710 8,104 9,799 11,406 4 5,791 6,767 8,288 10,160 11,955 5 4,372 5,064 6,129 7,425 8,657 6 1,883 2,194 2,682 3,282 3,856 7 3,258 3,884 4,873 6,110 7,315 8 467 546 666 812 951 9 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 11 950 1,120 1,382 1,706 2,018 12 0 0 0 0 0 13 388 462 576 718 856 14 404 475 585 721 851 15 0 0 0 0 0 16 2,581 3,049 3,770 4,663 5,524

Total 60,328 70,379 85,867 104,866 123,033 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 6 COMPARISON GOODS ALLOCATION - MARKET SHARE %

SEVENOAKS OUT OF CENTRE

Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 18 18 18 18 18 2 9 9 9 9 9 3 13 13 13 13 13 4 17 17 17 17 17 5 13 13 13 13 13 6 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 2 2 2 2 2 9 2 2 2 2 2 10 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 12 1 1 1 1 1 13 1 1 1 1 1 14 3 3 3 3 3 15 1 1 1 1 1 16 1 1 1 1 1 SOURCE: Sevenoaks Household Survey, November 2004

TABLE 7 COMPARISON GOODS ALLOCATION - SPEND (£) 2005 PRICES

SEVENOAKS OUT OF CENTRE

Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) 1 17,840 20,795 25,338 30,903 36,220 2 1,587 1,830 2,199 2,645 3,066 3 3,369 3,900 4,711 5,696 6,630 4 3,512 4,104 5,027 6,162 7,251 5 3,651 4,229 5,117 6,200 7,228 6 548 638 781 955 1,122 7 3,225 3,844 4,822 6,047 7,239 8 885 1,034 1,259 1,536 1,800 9 977 1,148 1,401 1,710 2,006 10 252 297 367 452 535 11 0 0 0 0 0 12 439 522 652 814 971 13 1,196 1,423 1,775 2,213 2,638 14 2,755 3,238 3,985 4,909 5,798 15 1,785 2,184 2,839 3,675 4,502 16 1,854 2,190 2,707 3,349 3,967

TOTALS 43,872 51,376 62,979 77,265 90,973

SOURCE: Tables 2 & 5 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 8 COMPARISON GOODS ALLOCATION - MARKET SHARE %

SWANLEY TOWN CENTRE Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 2 2 2 2 6 1 1 1 1 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 12 1 1 1 1 1 13 0 0 0 0 0 14 3 3 3 3 3 15 0 0 0 0 0 16 1 1 1 1 1 SOURCE: Sevenoaks Household Survey, November 2004

TABLE 9 COMPARISON GOODS ALLOCATION - SPEND (£) 2005 PRICES

SWANLEY TOWN CENTRE Catchment 2007 2012 2017 2022 2026 Zone (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) (£000) 1 340 396 483 589 690 2 63 73 88 105 122 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 5 570 660 799 968 1,129 6 145 169 206 252 296 7 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 12 418 497 621 775 925 13 0 0 0 0 0 14 3,023 3,553 4,373 5,387 6,362 15 0 0 0 0 0 16 737 871 1,077 1,332 1,578

Total 5,296 6,219 7,646 9,408 11,102 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 10 SEVENOAKS TOWN CENTRE COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE

Net Floorspace Sales Density Turnover 2007 Sq m £ per sq m £000's

Sevenoaks Town Centre 9,505 5,500 52,277 TOTAL 9,505 52,277

Source: Experian Goad, Sevenoaks March 2006

TABLE 11 RETAIL WAREHOUSE FLOORSPACE Net Co Average Average Flsp Sales Turnover (sqm) (£ per sq m net) (£000s) 2007

Otford Road Retail Park

Wickes 2,300 2,504 5,903 Currys 750 4,755 3,655 Carpetright 500 1,288 660 SUB TOTAL 3,550 2,879 10,219

Riverside Retail Park

Pets at Home 127 2,161 281 Halfords 190 2,060 401 Homebase 2,960 1,368 4,151 SUB TOTAL 3,277 1,475 4,833

TOTAL 6,827 2,205 15,052

TABLE 12 SWANLEY TOWN CENTRE COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE

Net Floorspace Sales Density Turnover 2007 Sq m £ per sq m £000's

Swanley Town Centre 4,443 2,500 11,108 TOTAL 4,443 11,108

Source: Experian Goad, Sevenoaks March 2004 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 13 SEVENOAKS RETAIL COMMITMENTS/PROPOSALS - COMPARISON GOODS Commitment/Proposal Net Co Average Average Average Average Average Average Flsp Sales Turnover 2007 Turnover 2012 Turnover 2017 Turnover 2022 Turnover 2026 (sqm) (£ per sq m net) (£000s) (£000s) (£000s) (£000s) (£000s)

Blighs Meadow Phase 1a 482 3,000 1,446 1,597 1,763 1,946 2,149

TOTAL 482 3,000 1,446 1,597 1,763 1,946 2,149

Source: Sevenoaks District Council Note: Blighs Meadow estimate from Council figures. SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY UPDATE 2007

TABLE 14 FUTURE SHOP FLOORSPACE CAPACITY IN SEVENOAKS

GROWTH IN SALES PER SQ M COMPARISON GOODS 2 %pa '07-'26

COMPARISON GOODS

2007 2012 2017 2022 2026

Total Available Expenditure (£000) 1,146,863 1,358,768 1,689,236 2,100,344 2,498,454

Market Share from Survey Area 9 9 9 9 9

Survey Area Residents Spending (£000) 104,200 121,755 148,847 182,131 214,006

Existing Shop Floorspace 16,332 16,332 16,332 16,332 16,332 (sq m net)

Sales per sq m net £ 6,380 7,044 7,777 8,587 9,295

Sales from Existing 104,200 115,045 127,019 140,240 151,800 Floorspace (£000)

Sales from Committed 0 1,597 1,763 1,946 2,107 Floorspace (£000)

Residual Spending to 0 5,113 20,064 39,945 60,099 Support new shops (£000)

Sales per sq m net in new shops (£) 5500 5500 5500 5500 5500

Capacity for new floorspace (sq m net) 0 930 3,648 7,263 10,927 Sevenoaks District Retail Study Update July 2007

APPENDIX 8

DISTRICT SETTLEMENT SURVEY

Settlement surveyed Parish Food retailer Ash Ash-Cum-Ridley 0 New Ash Green Ash-Cum-Ridley Supermarket, newsagent, bakery Bessels Green Chevening 0 Brasted Brasted Off licence Chevening Chevening 0 Chiddingstone Chiddingstone 0 Chiddingstone Causeway Leigh General store Chiddingstone Hoath Chiddingstone 0 Chipstead Chevening 0 Cowden Cowden 0 Crockenhill Crockenhill General store, butchers Dunton Green Dunton Green Newsagent Edenbridge Edenbridge General store, bakery, butchers, 4xnewsagents, 2x supermarket, 3x off license Eynsford Eynsford 2x general store, butchers Farningham Farningham Butchers, newsagents Fawkham Fawkham 0 Fordcombe Penshurst 0 Halstead Halstead General store Hartley Hartley 2x general store, off license Hever Hever 0 Horton Kirby Horton Kirby and South Darenth 0 Ide Hill Sundridge General store Kemsing Kemsing 2x general store, off licence, newsagent Knockholt/Knockholt Pound Knockholt General store Leigh Leigh General store Otford Otford General store, butcher Penshurst Penshurst General store Riverhead Riverhead Supermarket, general store, bakery, butchers, off license Seal Seal General store, butchers, off license Sevenoaks Weald Sevenoaks Weald General store, butchers Shoreham Shoreham General store South Darenth Horton Kirby and South Darenth General store, bakery, off license Sundridge Sundridge General store West Kingsdown West Kingsdown 0 Crockham Hill Westerham 0 Swanley Village Swanley 0 Hextable Swanley General store, bakery, Four elms Hever General store *Sevenoaks Sevenoaks *Westerham Westerham *Swanley Swanley

*Towns yet to be surveyed