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SPECIAL REPORT

How will the Latin American electoral year play out in 2016?

Madrid, February 2016

BARCELONA BOGOTA LIMA LISBON MADRID MEXICO CITY MIAMI PANAMA CITY QUITO RIO J SAO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

1. INTRODUCTION

In 2016, will experience a much less intense electoral 1. INTRODUCTION year than 2014 or 2015. However, the year will still be very significant 2. IS LATIN AMERICA and highly politically charged. While there were seven presidential EXPERIENCING A CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL CYCLE? elections in 2014 and only two in 2015, three will take place in 2016 (, the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua). There will also 3. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS be municipal elections in Brazil and Chile, mayoral elections in 4. CONCLUSIONS and in 12 Mexican states, and a referendum to decide whether Evo Morales is eligible for re-election in Bolivia.

If political-electoral changes set the tone of elections in and Guatemala in 2015, we can expect ruling parties to maintain their holds in 2016. This is also the case in the Dominican Republic, where current President Danilo Medina is the clear favorite to win the presidential election. It seems as though there will be continuity in Nicaragua as well, where the Interoceanic Canal, economic stability, Chinese investments and Sandinista political system led by Daniel Ortega (who has been president since 2007) have positioned the existing head of state as the strong favorite to remain in power.

Peru is the only country where change is expected because the ruling party does not have the option of running again, making opposition leaders and favorites to win the election. As it is, change is the only constant in the Andean nation, because since the fall of in 2000 no political party has been re-elected. It seems this will happen again in 2016, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Ruling Parties in the

President Party Possible Peru Alejandro Toledo (2001-2006) (Perú Posible) Peruvian Aprista Party Alan García (2006-2011) (APRA, Partido Aprista Peruano) Nationalist Party (2011-2016) (Partido Nacionalista) Keiko Fujimori –Fuerza Popular, Fujimorist– Pedro Pablo Kuczynski –Alliance for Favorite candidates for the Great Change (PPK)– the second round César Acuña –Alliance for Progress (APP, Alianza Para el Progreso)– Alan García (APRA)

Source: Compiled by author

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The pages that follow examine Marti National Liberation the heterogeneous political Front (FMLN, for its Spanish “The 2015 year was situation in Latin America in acronym), led by Salvador general and analyze the electoral Sánchez Ceren, as well as certainly one of change” processes in the three countries Colombia, which re-elected holding presidential elections Juan Manuel Santos. in 2016, as well as Bolivia, which will hold a referendum with a The 2015 year was certainly clear plebiscite focus. one of change, witnessing the opposition’s victories in 2. IS LATIN AMERICA Argentina, with Mauricio EXPERIENCING A SHIFT Macri; Guatemala, with Jimmy IN ITS POLITICAL CYCLE? Morales; and Venezuela, with the Democratic Unity The idea that began to spread Roundtable in its legislative after the 2014 elections, and elections. In 2016 however, especially after the 2015 continuity is expected to elections, is that we are prevail in the Dominican witnessing a change of cycle. Republic and Nicaragua, while Following the shift toward the change should triumph in left that took place 10 years Peru. ago, the region has taken a new turn and is now shifting Latin America is experiencing toward the right. However, a combination of two elements this theory is misleading. rather than a uniform shift. 2015 represented an island One has a homogeneous of change in the midst of nature and regional scope the ocean of continuity that and is defined by the common characterized 2014 and will background of nearly all likely define 2016, at least countries in the region: in part. In 2014, presidential economic problems and social elections were held in seven unrest. The other element countries: Brazil, Bolivia, is more heterogeneous and Colombia, , is related to the marked Uruguay, Panama and Costa differences and distinct Rica. The opposition was only political-electoral dynamics able to win in Costa Rica, taking place internally in each with Luis Guillermo Solís, and nation. On a broad regional Panama, with Juan Carlos scale, we can see how the Varela. However, change did political landscape is being not materialize in Brazil, where affected by the economic ´s Workers’ downturn, as well as growing Party (PT, for its Spanish social dissatisfaction with acronym) was ratified, or the party system. Discontent Uruguay, which saw the victory is also directed at inefficient of Tabare Vazquez’ Frente state systems unable to offer Amplio. El Salvador followed appropriate responses to suit with the Farabundo citizen demands in terms

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of providing quality public questioned until the last services and ensuring minute. This dynamic was “Throughout 2014 and transparency in the fight much stronger in 2015, as the against corruption. ruling parties were defeated 2015 we saw signs that in four of the five elections the ruling parties are This is a common reality that took place - presidential running out of steam” throughout the region, but elections in Guatemala and if we focus on the specific Argentina and legislative circumstances of each elections in El Salvador individual country we see that and Venezuela. Only the the dynamics are actually very Institutional Revolutionary heterogeneous, with some Party (PRI, for its Spanish nations opting for continuity acronym) was able to stay in while others shift toward power by winning Mexico’s political change. The 2014 legislative elections. Latin American elections were weighted toward continuity, The increased competitiveness especially in South America, of the electoral process and where the ruling parties won difficulties faced by the in five of the seven countries ruling parties began in 2014. holding elections and two For example, in El Salvador, presidents were re-elected. Salvador Sanchez Ceren won The most recent results in the presidential election by 2014 and 2015 suggest the a margin of only 6,000 votes. political cycle inaugurated at The FMLN candidate received the beginning of last decade 50.11 percent of votes, while is either entering a new era or the opposition’s Norman its final stretch. Throughout Quijano from the Nationalist 2014 and 2015 we saw signs that Republican Alliance (ARENA, the ruling parties are running for its Spanish acronym) out of steam, undermined obtained 49.89 percent, a by a social and generational difference of only 0.22 points. transformation they have been unable to handle in the midst In Colombia in 2014, Juan of the changing economic Manuel Santos did not receive context. the most votes in the first round, as he was surpassed RULING PARTIES ARE LOSING by Uribe’s protégé Oscar Ivan GROUND Zuluaga. Santos ended up winning the election by only The ruling parties struggled five points after a strong effort to win in 2014 and were to mobilize votes, particularly defeated in 2015. Several of in the Atlantic and Pacific the ruling party victories of Coasts. 2014, especially in El Salvador, Colombia, Brazil and, to a In Brazil, Dilma Rousseff had certain extent, Uruguay, were to fight hard in the first and highly competitive, being second rounds, with polls that

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were sometimes extremely This was the case in 2014, and adverse, and her final victory the dynamic has been much was the tightest since the PT more pronounced in 2015 won for the first time back in with Kirchnerism losing the 2002 when Lula da Silva beat presidency in Argentina and José Serra by 22 points. In 2010, Chavism losing legislative Dilma Rousseff beat Serra control in Venezuela. In both by just slightly more than 12 countries, the opposition has “By 2014, a majority points. been able to bring together of the ruling parties the scattered voters against There were exceptions to this the ruling party, putting an were starting to show theme of political competition, end to 12 years of the Kirchner signs of weakness and such as in Bolivia, where administration and 15 years their opponents were a Evo Morales edged out his of Chavism, which previously opponent, Samuel Doria, by 35 dominated the National step closer to possible points; and Costa Rica, where Assembly with absolute victory” the ruling party’s candidate, majorities. Johnny Araya, dropped out in the second round; as well as the SOCIAL AND GENERATIONAL Uruguayan election. However, CHANGE by 2014, a majority of the ruling parties were starting to show As Manuel Alcantara, professor signs of weakness and their at the University of Salamanca, opponents were a step closer to Spain, pointed out, ‘ruling possible victory. As pointed out parties are beginning to run by Daniel Zovatto, the regional out of steam because they director for Latin America and are unable to connect with the Caribbean at International the younger generations, IDEA, “It is increasingly evident who have not experienced that ruling parties are finding any government other than it harder to win elections Lulism in Brazil since 2003, comfortably. This has happened Kirchnerism in Argentina since in El Salvador and Colombia, 2003, Chavism in Venezuela and has occurred once again since 1999, Correism in Ecuador in Brazil. However, it is also since 2007 and Evo Morales true that it is not easy for the in Bolivia since 2006.’ These opposition to defeat the ruling governments did not fully party, as efforts this year have channel the requirements failed in El Salvador, Colombia, of those sectors. According Bolivia, Brazil and probably also to Alcantara, “Under normal Uruguay. Voters are inclined not circumstances, political cycles so much for change, but rather last between 12 and 15 years. for alternatives within the same Political cycles are biological, party; they are likely to re-elect or biopolitical, and are linked the ruling party while sending a to new generations reaching message of discontent with the legal age and registering to current situation.” vote.”

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Ruling parties not only have liberal government, which weaker connections with new was in power from 1989 to generations of voters, but it 2001 and consisted of high is also becoming clear that unemployment rates and they struggle to channel the economic crisis, are “open… “Ruling parties expectations of emerging to a right-wing government struggle to channel heterogeneous middle classes. such as that of Macri,” even the expectations These sectors have flourished though Macri defines himself of emerging thanks to the economic upturn as a “developmentalist” rather in the last decade, as well as to than conservative or liberal. heterogeneous middle public policies implemented Additionally, the strong classes” in the midst of economic movement against Otto Perez prosperity. The middle classes Molina in Guatemala was have their own agenda of led by urban middle classes better public services, including in Guatemala City willing to education, transportation and support an “outsider” like Jimmy security, but the ruling parties Morales. In Venezuela, it was the were unable to properly respond middle classes that backed the when the region was at its growth of the Democratic Unity peak and there is no indication Roundtable in the legislative they will be able to do so going election. forward. This could explain many of the votes for Mauricio THE END OF THE TAIL WIND Macri in Argentina, Jimmy Morales in Guatemala and Since 2013, ruling parties have the anti-Chavism opposition survived without the tail wind in Venezuela. Urban voters, of the economic boom that primarily young, middle class began the “Golden Decade” individuals, have clearly opted in 2003, a period of economic to support these alternatives. growth based on exporting raw materials at very high prices. An article published by El Pais newspaper entitled “Los jóvenes “The economic upturn South de la clase media emergente American countries experienced que votan por el cambio” in the last decade is currently (The young members of the winding down," states Daniel emerging middle class who vote Zovatto. “Increased levels of for change) reflected this fact. consumption and employment, Alexandre Roig, a sociologist, strong state intervention and researcher and professor at active social policies that helped Universidad San Martin, in bring millions of people out of Buenos Aires, Argentina, one poverty are some of the main of the universities with the factors that explain the trend of most growth during the 12 continuing with ruling parties.” years of Kirchnerism, believes that most voters under This explains the four straight the age of 30 who have not terms the PT has served experienced Argentina’s neo- in Brazil since 2002; the

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three consecutive left-wing study reveals it is possible (Frente Amplio) to predict the re-election governments in Uruguay; the of a president or their 12 years of Kirchnerism in corresponding party without Argentina; the three elections turning to domestic factors. Evo Morales has won in Bolivia; It is only necessary to take Correa’s consecutive victories in into consideration the price of Ecuador; the 17 uninterrupted natural resources - the value of years of Chavism in Venezuela; exports and U.S. interest rates Daniel Ortega’s decade of or, in other words, the value of power in Nicaragua; and the credit and debt. As it’s been said Dominican Liberation Party in academia, ‘It’s the economy, (PLD, for its Spanish acronym stupid!’” ) dominance in the Dominican Republic since 2004. Therefore, the change in the economic cycle Latin America is This model and the prosperity experiencing plunges the region that came along with it have into an era that is much more “Another symptom reached an end due to rising unstable and volatile in all areas, of this change in interest rates in the U.S. not just economically. Another the cycle is the and the Chinese economy’s symptom of this change is the slowdown. Latin American rising unpopularity currently rising unpopularity countries, in turn, are slowing affecting many Latin American trend that currently down and in some cases falling presidents, including Dilma affects many into crisis - as is the case with Rousseff, whose popularity has Latin American Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina reached single digits (9 percent), – and economic conditions Michelle Bachelet at barely 25 presidents” are hindering governments, percent in Chile, and Uruguayan which are losing margins to president Tabare Vazquez, who keep increasing, or merely ended his first term with a maintaining, existing social popularity level of more than spending and investments in 70 percent but whose approval human and physical capital. ratings these past nine months have plummeted down to 36 Andres Malamud, professor percent. at the University of Lisbon, Portugal, points out “in an 3. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL article titled Mérito o suerte ELECTIONS (Merit or Luck), [Princeton Professor] Campello and In this context of social unrest, [Rutgers Professor] Zucco coupled with the end of the identified the determining tail wind, three presidential factors for votes in Latin elections will take place in America and reached the Latin America in 2016. They will following conclusion: voters serve as barometer for some of reward or punish their the statements that have been presidents for causes unrelated made to date regarding the to their administration. The political situation in the region.

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PERUVIAN PRESIDENTIAL the end of May and the first ELECTION (APRIL) half of June.

The Andean nation will begin The big question up in the air its 2016 presidential election for these elections is who will period Sunday, April 10, to elect run against Keiko Fujimori the president of the Republic, in the second round. The vice president and members Fujimorist leader is at the head of Congress. If a second round of polls with more than 30 is required, it will take place percent of voting intention. during the 30-day period Therefore, the battle is following the announcement currently focused on who will of the official counts, which be in second place. It could be tends to take place between former Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who is second Figure 2. Electoral outlook in Latin America for 2016 in terms of supporters, but Cesar Acuña has been gaining ground in recent months. Country Presidential elections Former President Alan Garcia 1st round (April) (1985-1990 and 2006- 2011) is far Peru 2nd round (May/June) behind, as shown in Figure 3. 1st round (May 15) Dominican Republic Augusto Alvarez Rodrich, 2nd round (June 26) an analyst at La Republica Nicaragua November 6 newspaper, concludes that "it is almost guaranteed that Source: Compiled by author Keiko Fujimori will move on to the second round, although it is uncertain who else will Figure 3. Voting intention for Peru’s presidential election compete in that decisive race. This is where the GFK poll provides major insights, which can be summarized as follows: as Alejandro Toledo (3 percent) continues to lose ground; Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (9 percent); Cesar Acuña (7 percent); and Alan Garcia (6 percent) are almost tied in the fight for second place. The rivalry is so close that anything could happen during the months leading up to the first round.”

The next few months will be decisive for as a Source: Perú 21 whole. They will force Keiko

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Fujimori onto the national convinced. This time, she is stage, making her a target of not waiting until January or criticism from anti-Fujimorists, February when the campaign and certain internal tensions heats up. Instead, she has may arise between the already started to distance old Fujimorism guard and herself.” This situation has the younger generations allowed Keiko Fujimori to roll surrounding Keiko Fujimori. out a strategy for 2015/2016 that Fujimorism seeks to return to attempts to gain mainstream power and break away from center votes without losing its traditional classification as the support she naturally a far-right party. Determined obtains from the traditional to win the 2016 presidential right wing. Keiko already has election, it has set out to a strong backing, and for years conquer the mainstream polls have positioned her as a “This situation has center without abandoning its highly valued leader. In one of allowed Keiko Fujimori popular and populist roots, or the latest polls, GFK has noted to roll out a strategy for traditional voters. that, at 34 percent, she leads the voting intention for the 2015/2016 that attempts Keiko is aware that, since her 2016 presidential election. to gain mainstream father’s fall in 2000, Fujimorism center votes” has relied on the support of This means the voters who its extremely loyal voters, who long for old Fujimorism and represent about 30 percent of a firm hand will not abandon the population – a percentage her. At the same time, she must that marks both its lowest connect with another type number as well as its ceiling. of voter to reach 50 percent In 2011, it was enough to allow and win the first round while her to move on to the second standing strong against the round, but not to beat Ollanta anti-Fujimorist front during Humala. Fujimorism continued the voting process. This to have negative connotations context has marked a shift for much of the population, in her political discourse and as people still remembered relationships with certain the authoritarianism and mainstream center political corruption of the Alberto sectors. This change in strategy Fujimori era. has been implemented through a number of actions. “The candidate’s biggest First, a speech at Harvard mistake in 2011 was the fact in October (2015), where she that she did not distance was invited as a guest, in herself from her father, which she was very critical and when she tried to do so of her father’s government. between the first and second Second, there has been a purge rounds, it was already too within Fujimorism, and some late,” explains analyst Luis members from the 1990s’ Benavente. “Her efforts seemed regime are no longer involved. weak and voters were not Lastly, she has not hesitated to

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support popular demands that candidate has been able to are conceptually linked to the establish a strong presence left wing, such as defending at the ballot boxes. Peru has the idea of having the state- always been an environment owned Petroperu operate prone to surprises and dark Block 192. horse political figures, in part because this is already “Peru has always been In summary, as pointed out a historical tradition in Peru. an environment prone by political scientist Steven As noted a few years ago by Levitsky, “Keiko Fujimori political analyst Fernando to surprises and dark has begun to move toward Tuesta, “For more than three horse political figures” the mainstream center. decades, Peruvian elections She knows she lost in 2011 have always brought surprises. because Humala won over the It has become a tradition. We mainstream center and she are a country that breeds and did not. As a result, Keiko will develops outsiders.” probably continue to moderate her position. Her repositioning The Andean nation restored and new alliances will generate democracy in 1980 by a great deal of debate, as did establishing a party system Humala’s in 2011. Will it work? based on the APRA, under Nobody knows. Moderation Alan Garcia’s leadership, and entails risks because it on the Popular Action (AP, so generates internal conflict, its Spanish acronym) party, led even with her father, and it by Fernando Belaunde Terry. could lead to certain longtime The two groups governed Fujimorists abandoning her throughout the 1980s’, AP cause. We currently do not with Belaunde between 1980 know how it will affect her and 1985 and APRA with Alan electoral base.” Garcia between 1985 and 1990. Both parties’ failures explain, Aside from the favoritism in part, the crisis of the party toward Keiko Fujimori, Peru system Peru continues to has maintained a series of experience today and the electoral trends over the years appearance of individuals that could reappear in the such as Alberto Fujimori in the 2016 election. Since 2001, the 1990s’ and Ollanta Humala in party that was defeated in the 2011. previous election has always won. In 2001, Alejandro Toledo The AP and APRA lost a beat Alan Garcia in the second great deal of their prestige round and five years later due to their inability to lead Garcia beat Ollanta Humala the country, opening up the in the 2006 election. Humala playing field to other groups. then defeated Keiko Fujimori In 1990, the two parties battled in the next election, and now against two outsiders. One she is the favorite for 2016. of them, , On occasion, an “outsider” supported by traditional

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center-right parties AP and channeled peoples’ protest and PPC, later explained his discontentment: “The anti- experience as follows: “I always system discourse and image of say that it was an amazing authority conveyed by retired experience. I was a candidate captain Ollanta Humala stirred “Cesar Acuña seems to during a very difficult time in up strong electoral support be the emerging and Peru. I am not a politician.” whose geographic distribution surprising outsider highlighted some of the His opponent, Alberto Fujimori, nation’s social rifts. Humala for the upcoming 2016 led a recently created party, obtained the highest numbers election” Cambio 90, with a motto of votes in the southern popular sectors readily Andes regions, in the most accepted: “Honor, technology impoverished and abandoned and work.” In the end, the areas and in cities and towns unknown Fujimori defeated where minority ethnic groups the APRA candidate to reach were present. Garcia won in the second round, where he Lima and in modern cities then beat the prestigious along the coasts, which were writer by attracting the votes integrated into the more of the right-wing, left-wing and dynamic economic circuits.” APRA’s rivals. Cesar Acuña seems to be The fall of the Fujimori regime the emerging and surprising in 2000 made it possible to outsider for the upcoming reinstate the Democratic 2016 election. In the midst of a Party system. However, in frozen scenario in which Keiko the first elections, which took is the favorite, although she is place in 2001, a new outsider stuck at 30-35 percent, followed appeared by the name of by Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who Alejandro Toledo. He had led has not been able to get off the anti-Fujimori mobilizations the ground, an individual has between 1999 and 2000, and emerged who may alter the although he was not linked electoral map: Cesar Acuña. to any traditional party, he He is the leader of Alliance for became president by leading a Progress and has moved up newly- created party known as from sixth place, according to Possible Peru. polls in early 2015, to third place, surpassing Alan García. Figures In 2006, a new outsider 4 and 5. presented different features: Ollanta Humala was an anti- Acuña’s political rise began in system leader who won the the last decade, when he took first round of the election by office at a local level. He had denouncing the economic first built a business empire model and the political class. that served as the platform As noted by political scientist for his leap into politics. He Martin Tanaka, Humala then founded Cesar Vallejo

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University, which provided Libertad in the October 2014 him with resources and a election. He defeated Jose structure with national reach. Murgia Zannier, the former That is how he ascended into minister of Transport and national politics. In 2006, Communications under Alan Cesar Acuña beat APRA in Garcia, who had been mayor the municipality of Trujillo of Trujillo for more than 15 for the first time, defeating years, and has been working Moises Arias Quezada. He on winning the presidential then became president of the election since 2015. regional government of La Acuña’s main disadvantage is that his background is Figure 4. March 2016 Presidential Poll for the 2016 elections in Peru somewhat tainted. He is currently facing two prison sentences for three and six years, respectively, from the Trujillo district attorney. One is for alleged embezzlement crimes - misappropriation of public funds - and the other for vote inducement. “I don’t know if Toledo and Acuña, who have between 7 and 11 percent of the vote according to the polls, can restructure the center," states analyst Juan de la Puente. “For now, second place is held by Toledo, who has a human face Source: Encuestasperú.com thanks to the minimal rejection he stirs up and because he is Figure 5. Presidential poll for the 2016 elections in Peru less questionable on a personal level. However, the electoral campaign is long, arduous and unpleasant. Acuña will have to increase his exposure, find a way to absorb the serious accusations that are starting to be made and answer in- depth questions about the economy, salaries, corruption and security. For example, it will be interesting to hear him explain how the quality of his educational model will differ from models at the universities he owns.” Source: Foros Perú

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DOMINICAN REPUBLIC would receive about 7 percent PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (MAY) of the vote each. This is just one example of the strong The Dominican Republic will advantage that Medina holds; hold its presidential election seven separate polls have “Danilo Medina hopes May 15, 2016. Current President proclaimed him the clear to be re-elected and Danilo Medina hopes to be favorite. These seven polls, is the favorite to win re-elected and is in fact, the five of which are international, favorite to win thanks to his predict a landslide victory for thanks to his high high popularity and because Medina with a lead of more popularity” he has been able to build than 30 percent over Luis an extensive coalition that Abinader. supports him. Medina has been proclaimed presidential There is no doubt Medina is candidate for his own party, the favorite, and even though the PLD, as well as for the voting intention has fallen Dominican Workers' Party since September, his numbers (PTD, for its Spanish acronym), continued to be very solid Popular Christian Party (PPC, at his pre-campaign launch. for its Spanish acronym), and They have been unaffected Liberal Action Party (PAL, by the corruption scandals for its Spanish acronym). that have since touched his Additionally, the PLD and the administration. Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD, for its Spanish acronym), There are three factors that the two major and historically explain this situation: opposing parties, signed an electoral alliance Sept. 7, 2015. • The political stability the Miguel Vargas, president of the nation has experienced since PRD, agreed to support Medina the PLD came into power in Figure 6. Voting intention for and implement the agreements 2004, led by Leonel Fernandez. Danilo Medina reached by both entities. • Medina’s strong leadership, Polls confirm Danilo Medina backed by a predominantly as the favorite. At the client-based structure in the end of 2015, polls by CIES hands of his closest circle and INTERNATIONAL showed that the PLD. if the election was to take place then, President Danilo Medina • The favorable economic would receive 45 percent of climate, placing the votes compared to 33 percent Dominican Republic at the for Luis Abinader, candidate head of Latin America and of the Modern Revolutionary the Caribbean in terms of Party. In turn, Pelegrin Castillo economic growth in 2015, with of the National Progressive a 6.6 percent increase in GDP Force and Guillermo Moreno after a growth of 7.3 percent of the Country Alliance Party in 2014. Source: Diario Hoy

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If Medina wins, he would govern There are rumors that Leonelists the country for eight consecutive are supporting Medina’s rival years (2012-2020), dating back candidates, and even the to 2012 when he first entered Leonelist Global Democracy office. Medina’s victory will & Development Foundation also confirm the end of Leonel (FUNGLODE, for its Spanish Fernandez’ authority, given they acronym) has stated that the compete for leadership within presidential candidate for the the same party. Fernandez was PRM, Luis Abinader, will be the the nation's president from 1996 most influential politician in to 2012, except for the 2000-2004 2016, beating President Medina period. In the 2015 intra-party and former President Leonel battle, Medina edged out Leonel Fernandez. According to polls Fernandez, who had hoped to by the Dominican Political become president once again. Observatory (OPD, for its Spanish “If Medina wins, acronym), an entity affiliated he will govern Polls show that Medina’s with FUNGLODE, Abinader the country eight strongest opponent is Luis is leading, with 90.91 percent, Abinader, the presidential followed by Medina with 81.82 consecutive years candidate for the Modern percent, Country Alliance Party (2012-2018) Revolutionary Party (PRM, for candidate Guillermo Moreno after entering into its Spanish acronym), backed by with 45.45 percent and Fernandez office in 2012” the Broad Front and Dominicans in fourth place with 36 percent, in for Change. Abinader’s greatest the group of leaders who will not achievements are having been be presidential candidates. able to create an alternative party, even if it revolves Second, Danilo Medina’s exclusively around him, and candidacy could be affected surpass traditionally powerful by growing insecurity, the parties, most notably the PRD, corruption scandals that have to become the PLD’s main rival affected his administration and and opposition. Other factors in the progressive rise in prices Abinader’s favor include some of for basic family staples, such as the weaknesses that beset the chicken. These three factors all ruling party’s candidacy: have a strong social impact on the middle and working classes. First, the division between Danilists and Leonelists. Leonel NICARAGUAN PRESIDENTIAL Fernandez hoped to become ELECTION (NOVEMBER) president once again in 2016, since the constitution would not Latin America will end its year allow Medina to be re-elected. of presidential elections in However, Medina obtained Nicaragua Nov. 6. This Central enough support to reform the American nation will elect Magna Carta and to allow his a president, vice president, re-election, defeating Leonel as 90 national representatives leader of the party but causing and 20 representatives to the strong divisions within the PLD. Central American Parliament

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this November. Although the party system managed by Sandinista National Liberation the firm hand of Daniel Front (FSLN, for its Spanish Ortega, his wife and the acronym) has not yet named government's second-in- its candidate, current president command Rosario Murillo, “Daniel Ortega in this Daniel Ortega seems to be are the reasons behind new period (2007-2016) the ruling party's strongest his political dominance. has been able to contender, with 54 percent If the Sandinista leader support according to a CID is re-elected again, he generate stability Gallup Poll. Unlike his previous will be president until and overall social era as president from 1979 to 2021, becoming the leader consensus regarding 1990 after the fall of Anastasio who has spent the most Somoza’s dictatorship, when years in power since 1979, his role” he was defeated by Violeta when Anastasio Somoza de Chamorro in the 1990 – the last member of the presidential election, in this Somoza dynasty that ruled new period (2007-2016) he has the nation for 45 years– been able to generate stability was overthrown. Ortega and overall social consensus made this possible by regarding his role. A number of eliminating a constitutional factors explain this situation: law blocking consecutive re-elections in 2011, when • Economic prosperity: he was seeking his first Economic matters have been reelection after serving managed in an orthodox from 2006-2011. manner, unlike in the 1980s’, and his administration According to former has been characterized Ambassador of Nicaragua by economic prosperity, to the Arturo as it took place during J. Cruz Sequeira’s 2011 Latin America’s “Golden analysis, the characteristics Decade.” This has allowed of Ortega’s government in Ortega’s government to 2011 allow it to be defined as boast about reducing the “responsible populism.” “It nation’s poverty level from is responsible populism in 45 percent to 29 percent, the sense that Ortega has an achievement made used Venezuela’s resources possible by the positive to address the nation’s economic situation the immediate needs,” stated nation and the region were Sequeira. “At the same experiencing at the time. time, he has managed the The favorable situation, economy very responsibly, prudent macroeconomic using his formal budget policies, Venezuela’s within the IMF program.” support, arrival of Chinese He concluded by investments in the form highlighting how Ortega’s of the Interoceanic Canal government had achieved and effective client-based “a balance between meeting

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the population’s immediate a number of advantages. needs without losing sight The Front has a strong of the macroeconomic following, the support of future. He brought together media outlets, especially the IMF and Chavez. We radio and TV, the approval have the best of both of business sectors, enough worlds. Nicaragua receives money from ALBA for the Chavez’s dollars and a very campaign, a single and Chavist rhetoric, but the unchallenged candidate “The Sandinista leader economic policies are in line in Daniel Ortega, control was elected in 2006 with Washington’s.” of the Supreme Court of for a five-year term, Justice and of the Supreme • Institutional control: Electoral Council and the which he renewed in Another factor explaining support of organized social 2011 by eliminating a Ortega’s power lies in his sectors that have benefited constitutional rule that control over institutions. from its focused social The Sandinista leader policies.” blocked consecutive was elected in 2006 for reelections” a five year term, which As a result, Daniel Ortega’s he renewed in 2011 by power is astounding. He eliminating a constitutional holds executive power rule that blocked and the Legislative consecutive reelections. Assembly of Nicaragua The latest constitutional through the FSLN, modification, which took which has the absolute place in 2014, expressly majority. The FSLN allows indefinite reelections obtained 60.93 percent and also makes it easier of votes for national to remain in power as the representatives and 60.75 candidate with the most percent for departmental votes wins the election, as representatives. Sandinistas opposed to the candidate have also taken control with 35 percent of votes, of judicial powers, first thereby eliminating the in 2000 by reaching an second electoral round. agreement with Arnoldo Aleman’s Liberal Party for Taking advantage of the distributing positions, and weaknesses of governments in recent years without like those of Arnoldo the need for agreements, Aleman or Enrique Bolaños, resulting in the polemical since he left office in 1990 failure of the Supreme Ortega has strengthened Court in 2010 that allowed his control over Nicaraguan Daniel Ortega to run for institutions to reach current re-election despite the fact levels. Salvador Marti, an that consecutive reelections academic at the University were banned by the of Salamanca, Spain, Constitution. He has also states that "the FSLN has been able to influence the

16 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

Supreme Electoral Council more like an octopus, with (CSE, for its Spanish its many arms: the army, acronym), as pointed out the police and a business by analyst Carlos Salinas sector that does not question Maldonardo in Confidencial the constitutionality newspaper: “The de facto or transparency of his judges of the CSE, who macroeconomic policies.” remain in their posts thanks to decree 3-2010 The recent transfer of issued by Ortega - which Channel 2 to Mexican in fact was the first turn of business owner Angel the gear that guaranteed Gonzalez is the latest his fraudulent re-election example of how President - declared the leader of the Daniel Ortega and Gonzalez Sandinista Front as winner have built a duopoly in “Daniel Ortega’s power with 62.4 percent of the the country. Nicaraguan is astounding” votes.” journalist Carlos Fernando Chamorro has drawn Not only does he control attention to this fact, stating the Armed Forces and Army, that “Democratic institutions but he also holds judicial have been demolished in power and has established Nicaragua,” including those important alliances with that belong to the State business sectors that and to civil society, with the value his orthodoxy and creation of a duopoly under the stability the country Ortega’s presidential family, has attained. Three names which owns four channels, stand out in Ortega’s and business owner and alliances: Mexican business Ortega’s partner, Angel owner Angel Gonzalez, Gonzalez, who owns five. a communications Cosep President Jose Adan magnate; Jose Adan Aguerri has become another Aguerri, chairman of the chief supporter of the Higher Council of Private government. On a number of Enterprise (Cosep, for its occasions, the business owner Spanish acronym); and has highlighted the “economic Chinese business owner achievements” attained Wang Jing, a billionaire who thanks to the alliance is behind the construction between the Nicaraguan of the Interoceanic Canal Government and the private megaproject in Nicaragua. sector. Another important Opponent Carlos Langrand ally is Chinese business defines Daniel Ortega’s owner Wang Jing, whose presidency in the following Interoceanic Canal project manner: “Ortega is not has further contributed to the tripod of Cosep, the consolidating the Nicaraguan government and the unions. president‘s power: My theory is that Ortega is

17 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

• Anti-Sandinista divisions: This rocky path is already The rise of Sandinistas being paved; Nicaragua’s and their leader, Daniel Sandinista dissidents Ortega, has run parallel to have joined the emerging a divided, confronted and National Coalition for fragmented opposition. Democracy led by the Running separately in 2006 Independent Liberal “The rise of led the anti-Sandinista Party (PLI, for its Spanish Sandinistas has sectors to lose the elections acronym). The Sandinista because Ortega obtained 38 Renewal Movement run parallel to a percent of votes, followed (MRS, for its Spanish divided, confronted by the dissident liberal acronym, center-left), led and fragmented Montealegre (28 percent), by Ana Vigil, has joined and the pro-Aleman liberal the alliance with the PLI, opposition” Jose Rizo (27 percent). If led by Representative they had joined forces, Eduardo Montealegre. they would have defeated Liberalism also strives for the Sandinistas. The 2011 reunification, and this is re-election occurred as it the path that Independent did not only because of the Liberal Party (PLI, for anti-Sandinista rift, but its Spanish acronym) also because the opposing President Eduardo project lacked credibility; Montealegre and Liberal Ortega obtained 62 percent Constitutionalist Party of votes, compared to 32 (PLC, for its Spanish percent for Fabio Gadea acronym) presidential (PLI) and 5 percent for candidate Noel Vidaurre Arnoldo Aleman. have established in their discussions about • After what took place creating a united front. in Venezuela Dec. 6, In addition, Guatemala’s 2015, when the united example, with its major opposition defeated citizen mobilizations, has Chavism in the legislative influenced Nicaragua election, it seems that and strengthened the anti-Sandinistas have opposition. More than taken note and learned 35 opposition marches their lesson. “We must have been carried out not lose hope,” stated to demand “free and the representative of the transparent elections,” and main opposition party, these protests take place Alberto Lacayo. “We need in front of the Supreme to learn from Venezuela’s Electoral Council every example, from Argentina’s, Wednesday. from united oppositions without ego or repression.”

18 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

BOLIVIAN REFERENDUM victory of 65-70% or a closer vote, (FEBRUARY) which would be a sign that the government is losing ground, Unlike Peru, the Dominican remains to be seen. Republic and Nicaragua, in 2016, Bolivia will not hold a According to sociologist Maria presidential election, but rather a Teresa Zegada, the February “More than referendum that technically has referendum has “contaminated” 35 opposition marches become a plebiscite regarding the electoral scenario because the role and administration of it has a plebiscite nature in have been carried out Evo Morales and his government. terms of how the Morales to demand free and Bolivian President Morales hopes government operates. “The transparent elections” the February referendum will referendum has prematurely ratify a constitutional reform contaminated the electoral allowing him to run for the scenario because, although the fourth consecutive term in the vote is about a constitutional scheduled 2019 election. Morales reform, in reality the vote is for won the 2005 election and was Morales’ re-election,” she says, re-elected in both 2009 and 2014. stating that proof of this lies The Constitution drafted during in the fact the campaign being his term in office in 2009 does carried out by the ruling party not allow another re-election, and the opposition “is focused on which has led to the coming Morales’ administration, what he referendum in which Bolivians is able to offer and the positive must decide whether they will effects of his efforts. As a result, accept or refuse to change a it is impossible to separate the paragraph in the Constitution two concepts.” to allow Morales and his Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera to After a decade in power, this run again in 2019. is the first time polls are no longer in favor of the current Whatever the result, it will define president. Support for the the political agenda beyond 2016 reform represents 40 percent of until the presidential election votes, while 54 percent of voters in 2019, since whether or not are against the constitutional Morales will be able to run as reform and in favor of a new a candidate will make a big presidential nominee and 6 difference. It will also affect percent of those surveyed are the ruling party, which must undecided. This extremely search for a new candidate if polarized situation supports the referendum decision is “No,” the idea that the referendum as well as the opposition, since has become a plebiscite in favor it will not be the same to face of or against Morales and his a candidate that has won all administration. elections since 2005 as it would be to face a new opponent. Even The government has decided if the change does go through, to increase the degree of whether it will be a landslide polarization and convey a

19 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

message it hopes will reach the foreigners. They will try to freeze popular sectors. This attempt to and reduce local government further polarization is clear in coffers. The right-wing, the messages seeking to divide the neo-liberals, those who sell our playing field into two competing homeland – they only think of sides and identify a common themselves. They do not think enemy: the United States. “In about the poor. They only think “The government politics, there is only left-wing about a few wealthy families.” has decided to or right-wing; in politics we are either with the people or with The opposition also hopes to increase the degree the empire,” Morales has stated. convey its message by criticizing of polarization and the government and making convey a message that However, what stands out most use of popular symbols. is the discourse of fear – the Criticism aims to highlight it hopes will reach fear of change. At a housing the government’s weaknesses, popular sectors” delivery event, Vice President especially corruption. More than Alvaro Garcia conveyed this 200 individuals have already type of apocalyptic message on been accused, and some arrested, a number of occasions, making for the Indigenous Fund alleged reference to the possibility of a corruption scandal. Bolivia’s right-wing victory: “The day the Attorney General is investigating right-wing returns to power, God the use of $6.8 million for 49 save Bolivia. Protect what you Indigenous Fund projects, which have. They will try to privatize until 2015 were used to fund even the air we breathe. They development efforts in remote will try to take away your homes areas. However, some of those and your public assistance resources were transferred vouchers. They will want to to personal accounts. Those give our gas, oil and lithium to arrested include Julia Ramos, former minister of Justice and Rural Development, as well as Figure 7. Agreement and disagreement to change Bolivia’s Constitution Remy Vera and Melva Hurtado, union leaders linked to MAS. The opposition has never had a better chance to defeat Morales at the polls. It believes it has found the Achilles’ heel in Morales’ strategy and hopes t the Feb. 21 vote will become a trap to seal the end of the current president’s administration.

In Pagina Siete, newspaper analyst Erika Brockmann claimed the corruption and hegemonic style of Morales and his party, MAS, are behind the Source: Eju Tv unfavorable polls the president

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is getting: “The slight drop in the In fact, another weakness of this support for ‘Yes’ is noteworthy government has to do with the because the government decided economic situation: In one year, to ‘pull out all the strings’ for this the price of the nation’s natural initiative. Everything seems to gas exports to Argentina and indicate that the multimillion Brazil fell between 34.5 percent propaganda campaign carried and 47.5 percent. Natural gas is out by the robust institutional the key behind the economic state media system is entering boom Bolivia has experienced. an era of declining results. The Among other things, it explains ability to seduce, especially in the stability of Morales’ the case of voters with mid to government since 2009, the social “For now, Evo Morales high-levels of education and improvements the government the middle class, is falling. So has been able to implement is lagging behind much information and packaged and the nation’s comfortable in the polls” propaganda has a saturating and economic situation. Natural gas muddled effect. On the other is the country’s main export hand, the political and moral product; Brazil and Argentina its harm caused by the Indigenous top markets. Most of the benefits Fund scandal has not hit rock the Bolivian government bottom yet. It’s overwhelmed the receives come as a result of the government’s ability to control. nationalization of hydrocarbons Today, in his desire to mitigate that took place in 2006, a time the damage, he has approved when exports and international punitive measures toward prices were rising. political allies that are high in the hierarchy but politically Bolivian economist Armando ‘dispensable.’ Despite the high Mendez Morales explains that political cost to his indigenous “the May 2006 nationalization vanguard of rural origin, the goal of hydrocarbons determined is to protect the Morales-Garcia that all oil companies operating Linera team, which is usually in Bolivia must deliver their immune to all types of earthly production to YPFB, who would and mundane threats, from this handle the commercialization. contaminating tide.” It also stated all hydrocarbon fields that produce more than For now, Morales is lagging 100 million square feet (large) per behind in the polls. He may be day must contribute 32 percent defeated or he may rise again of their revenue, in addition to to obtain the constitutional the 50 percent established before reform that would allow him to nationalization, for a total of 82 run for re-election in 2019. The percent. In summary, the State one thing that is certain is he would now receive 50 percent of will emerge from this process oil revenues from small fields, politically weakened, as it only which represent a small portion adds to the corruption scandals of the total production, and 82 and economic decline already percent from large fields.” affecting the government.

21 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

As a result, before the State Local elections in Mexico took control of hydrocarbons, the country received $600 Mexico will experience a million in royalties in 2005, decisive political three-year but in 2014, this amount period (2016-2018) in which “The 2016 Venezuelan was more than $6 billion. there will be local elections elections will be the There is no doubt the new (2016), a presumed immensely most noteworthy economic scenario, which difficult pre-campaign (2017) is still manageable for the and then the electoral year because they will take government, will complicate (2018). The term of the newly place with an economy Morales’ future efforts and elected president will begin in recession” damage his popularity as near the end of that year. there will be fewer resources As of a few months ago, the to support his social policies main parties have begun to and public investments in implement their strategies infrastructure. for the 2018 presidential election, while keeping some LOCAL ELECTIONS IN MEXICO, flexibility in mind due to the BRAZIL, VENEZUELA AND importance of what happens CHILE in 2016 and 2017. These years are vital in determining the In addition to the three aspirations of the parties and presidential elections and the pre-candidates that hope to Bolivian referendum, there make their way to Los Pinos will also be local elections in Palace in 2018. On June 5, 2016, four countries: Mexico, Brazil, there will be elections in 12 of Venezuela and Chile. The 2016 Mexico’s 32 states, including Venezuelan elections will be in important regions such as the most noteworthy because Veracruz, Puebla and Oaxaca, they will take place with an which will be key to deciding economy in recession. The who will lead each party and GDP is expected to fall by 7 determine their strength when percent and inflation increase facing the 2017 pre-campaign by more than 200 percent. The and 2018 campaign. The key to country will also be affected understanding what happens by a political field in the in Mexico in 2016 is knowing midst of an institutional crisis to what degree the PRI will and struggle for power, with be strengthened or weakened. a Chavist president versus Peña Nieto’s party governs 10 an anti-Chavist legislative of the 12 entities where the branch. governor will be elected and is favored in most, although The other elections in the victory is not guaranteed. He region will take place within is also facing the threat of a fairly standard political- the PAN-PRD alliances and institutional setting. “independent” candidates.

22 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

Regarding this, Excelsior The 2016 elections will not newspaper analyst Pascal determine the name of the Beltran del Rio points out party or candidate who will win that if "the Institutional the 2018 presidential election, Revolutionary Party wins 9 but they will provide clues and of the 12 state governments establish certain trends that holding elections in 2016, the could be decisive. Ultimately, “These years are party will make clear progress the 2016 elections will be a test vital in determining toward its attempt to win the run for the 2018 presidential 2018 presidential election. election, as 2016 will be followed the parties and the Why? Because recent electoral by a biennium that will include pre-candidates that statistics show that when the a pre-election, election and hope to make their PRI is in power, its results in postelection. During this federal elections improve on time, the pre-candidates and way to Los Pinos average by 3 percent.” eventual candidates for the Palace in 2018” 2018 presidential election will As a result, the left-wing PRD emerge. and center-right PAN have decided to join forces for Local elections in Brazil some of these elections, such as in Zacatecas and Durango, The effects of the political, while working to remain in economic and institutional power in Puebla and Oaxaca crisis Brazil has been immersed in order to defeat the PRI. in since 2013 will play a key The 2016 elections will also role in the 2016 local elections. be important to assess the The elections, held in October, implementation of MORENA will decide the mayors of (Andres Manuel Lopez all of Brazil’s municipalities Obrador’s party) throughout for the next four years. The the nation and see whether corruption scandals, along with new “Broncos,” named after the Dilma Rousseff’s weakened current dark horse governor government, could result in a in Nuevo Leon, appear. For great loss of power for the PT, AMLO, these elections are only especially in big cities with a test run in its attempt to more than 200,000 voters; defeat the PRD as the left-wing the PT currently controls party of reference. As far as 15 of the 83 most important independent candidates go, it cities in Brazil. Also to be seen seems that strict legislation is whether the opposition, in each state will obstruct the especially the PSDB, will appearance of new players, be able to consolidate the such as Jaime Rodriguez anti-PT votes and whether Calderon (“El Bronco”), the the local power the PMDB current governor of Nuevo has held until now will be Leon, who won the election damaged or weakened. The as an independent candidate PMDB has historically been while competing against all Dilma Rousseff’s strongest traditional parties. supporter, but it is currently

23 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

divided. One of its factions, led and PC. There will be a third list by , is driving of left-wing candidates for the the initiative IC and MAS as well. against the president as she faces corruption scandals. The The right-wing parties are situation in São Paulo is of redefining their strategies key importance as a majority and messages after the 2014 “The corruption of the big cities governed by defeat forced them to leave La scandals and Dilma the PT are found in Brazil’s Moneda. The main challenge most populated state: eight faced by the new center-right Rousseff’s weakened cities of more than 200,000 coalition, Chile, lies government could voters, including the capital, in winning the upcoming result in a great loss of where the current mayor is municipal elections, so this former Minister of Education may serve as a springboard to power for the PT ” Fernando Haddad. Mayors in subsequently regain control of five out of these eight cities the government. have the option of running for re-election. 4. CONCLUSIONS

Local elections in Chile Latin America has entered a new stage in its history. This The municipal elections will be transition takes place from an held in October, and the two economic perspective, marked biggest coalitions – center-left by the end of the “Golden Nueva Mayoria and center-right Decade” (2003-2013) and the Vamos Chile – are experiencing start of a new era of weaker similar moments of internal growth and risk of recession. doubt and transition. This will hold true if more aggressive economic reforms The ruling party is immersed are not implemented to make in strong tensions between its the region more competitive, moderate wing, made up of the productive and innovative, and Christian Democratic Party and less dependent on exporting sectors of the raw materials with a low added (PS, for its Spanish acronym), value. Economies must diversify and its far-left wing, comprised themselves in terms of export of part of the PS, the Party products as well as markets, for Democracy (PPD, for its opting to invest in human Spanish acronym), the Social capital through education Democrat Radical Party (PRSD, reforms and physical capital for its Spanish acronym) and through infrastructure. the . This means that the New Majority From a political perspective, will compete with at least two we are also witnessing the lists of city council members, end of an era, as social unrest one made up of PS and PDC and economic challenges candidates and the other have a direct correlation to consisting of the PPD, PRSD politics. Ruling parties will

24 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

find it increasingly difficult to homogeneous shifts to the maintain their dominance over right, although this trend could long periods of time, as we have prevail in the short term. The seen in Argentina and Venezuela political situation will be very in 2015. Election results will be heterogeneous and volatile, much tighter and hard-fought, marked by growing social just as it happened in Brazil unrest and increasingly complex “Ruling parties will and Colombia in 2014, or in governability that will put find it increasingly Argentina in 2015. Governments political institutions to the test. will have to withstand long If structural reforms aimed at difficult to maintain periods of difficulty, especially improving competitiveness, their dominance with regard to the economy, productivity and innovation over long periods of strong social pressures – the are pending tasks in anything 2015 mobilizations in Guatemala related to the economy, time, as we have seen are a good example of this strengthening institutional in Argentina and – and tremendous political aspects is the pending task in Venezuela in 2015” instability, with weak leaders the political arena. The goal and occasional institutional is to update and adapt the clashes between legislative party system to succeed in opposition and the president, this new era and design states as are currently happening in that are effective and efficient, Venezuela and Argentina. not co-opted by corruption and patronage, and capable of Against this shared backdrop, channeling and addressing the each country is defined needs of the new middle classes by its own dynamics and who demand better public characteristics, so it is services. not accurate to discuss

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