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3Q15 NEW YORK CITY OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW 3Q15 Office Market Overview New York City Table of Contents 3 Executive Summary 4 Manhattan Office Market Analysis 22 Manhattan Development Update 5 Leasing Activity by Market 23 Commercial Development Pipeline 6 Top Transactions 3Q15 24 Commercial Development Horizon Map 7 Industries Driving Demand 25 World Trade Center Development Overview 8 Industries Driving New York City Employment 26 Far West Side Development Overview 9 Industries Driving Leasing and Taking Rents 27 Midtown Development Overview 10 Manhattan Submarket Snapshot 11 Manhattan Submarket Matrix 28 Brooklyn and Long Island City 12 Overall Average Asking Rent by Market Office Market Analysis 13 Taking Rent Trends 29 Brooklyn Rent and Availability Trends 14 Taking Rent Corridor and Submarket Comparisons 30 Brooklyn Office Development and Redevelopment Map 15 Net Effective Rent Trends 31 Brooklyn Office Development and Redevelopment Overview 16 Concessions for Select Submarkets for Long-Term Deals 32 Brooklyn Submarket Snapshot 17 Triple-Digit Taking Assets 33 Submarket Rent Comparison 18 Manhattan Top-Tier Trends 34 Long Island City Rent and Availability Trends 19 Midtown South Top-Tier Trends 35 Long Island City Transformation Statistics 20 Midtown Height Analysis 21 Manhattan Asking Rents by Vintage | 2 3Q15 Office Market Overview New York City Executive Summary The top end of the market continues to be highly active, despite an overall slow-down in leasing activity. Leasing slowed in the third quarter, with quarterly and year-to-date activity down over last year. TAMI and FIRE tenants continue to drive Manhattan, totaling 64% of year-to-date activity. Manhattan asking rents surpassed $70/SF for the first time since 2008, climbing to $70.99/SF in the third quarter, pushed up by landlords re-pricing assets and high-priced blocks of space coming onto the market in Midtown. Prime assets in select Brooklyn submarkets are approaching Downtown Manhattan asking rents. Midtown and Midtown South saw heightened activity in premium-priced space, pushing average taking rents up for the fourth consecutive year. Midtown South has seen the fastest rate of growth among Manhattan’s major markets. As a result, the gap in rents between Midtown and Midtown South has shrunk since the prior market peak. Deal-making at the top end of the market continues to climb, particularly in Midtown South, which is on pace to record the largest volume of top-tier deals by year-end. Almost 14 MSF of development projects are planned and under construction in Manhattan, scheduled for completion by 2020. In Brooklyn and Long Island City, new construction and major renovations are alleviating supply constraints and creating new submarkets. | 3 3Q15 MANHATTAN OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS Manhattan (MSF) Manhattan Leasing 3 Source: Newmark Grubb Grubb Knight Newmark Source: 10 11 12 13 14 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Market Office Manhattan Q15 3Q05 4Q05 Activity by Activity Market 1Q06 2Q06 Midtown 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 Frank Research Frank 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 Midtown South Midtown 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 8.7 MSF8.7 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Downtown 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Average Velocity Average 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 years.in two total quarterlyleasing,lowest theof MSF thirdquarter The year. timelastsame the below 18%but25.8MSF, of average 10theabove slightly MSF, Year - to - date leasing totaled 26.6 totaledleasing date of 2015of posted 7.7posted - year year | 5 3Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Top Transactions 3Q15 Lease The ten largest transactions in Company Address Market SF Industry Type 3Q15 were all direct deals. Half J. Walter Thompson 237 Park Avenue Midtown 270,000 Renewal TAMI were relocations. Knight Capital Group 300 Vesey Street Downtown 168,873 Direct New FIRE TAMI and FIRE drove top Horizon Media 75 Varick Street Midtown South 155,652 Expansion TAMI transactions and total leasing. Renewal & Pandora 125 Park Avenue Midtown 103,515 TAMI Top transactions were spread Expansion evenly across Manhattan’s three Expansion LinkedIn 350 Fifth Avenue Midtown South 124,125 TAMI major markets. 28 Liberty Street (formerly Ironshore Downtown 101,958 Direct New FIRE 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza) FIRE WeWork 428 Broadway Midtown South 96,000 Direct New (home to TAMI tenants) Consumer Products Gucci 195 Broadway Downtown 83,964 Direct New Manufacturers - Apparel Moody’s Investor Services 1 World Trade Center Downtown 75,000 Direct New FIRE Memorial Hospital for Cancer & 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza Midtown 69,291 Direct New Health Care Allied Diseases Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research | 6 3Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Industries Driving Demand FIRE and TAMI tenants accounted Leasing by Industry Tenants in the Market for 64% of year-to-date activity. Other Other 10% The industry make-up of tenants in 15% TAMI the market suggests FIRE and TAMI 25% Professional tenants will continue to drive leasing. Services TAMI 18% 30% Professional Services Total SF 12% in the 2015 YTD Market Apparel & Retail 7% Apparel & Retail FIRE 8% 34% FIRE 41% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research | 7 3Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Industries Driving New York City Employment Employment by Industry 600,000 TAMI sector employment growth 20% Growth since the trough of the recession has Since 1Q10 550,000 outpaced FIRE and Professional/Business Services. 500,000 Despite this growth, TAMI 9% Growth Since 1Q10 employment has not yet caught up to 450,000 either of the other sectors’ total 400,000 employment. TAMI employment is currently was 42% below Professional/Business Services and 350,000 25% Growth Since 1Q10 28% below FIRE. 300,000 250,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Professional and Business Services Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Tech, Advertising, Media, and Information Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, New York State Department of Labor | 8 3Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Industries Driving Leasing and Taking Rents Leasing and Taking Rents by Industry Leasing by Industry Taking Rents by Industry 40% $100 35% $80 30% 34% $80.14 30% 30% $72.63 $60 27% $70.59 $68.64 $66.55 $63.92 $62.48 20% $61.04 $58.78 $56.84 $56.40 $53.06 20% $51.86 $51.56 $40 $51.34 $50.92 $50.89 18% 18% 16% $43.02 10% $20 0% $0 2013 2014 2015 YTD 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD TAMI Professional Services FIRE TAMI Professional Services FIRE * 2014 TAMI rent increase partially attributed to Twitter, Sony and Samsung Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research | 9 3Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Manhattan Submarket Snapshot PARK AVENUEPARK AVENUE 6TH AVE/ROCKEFELLERGRAND CENTRAL CENTER CHELSEAPARK AVENUE SOUTH Largest deal: Advertising agency J. Largest deal: Pandora renewed and Largest deals: Houghton Mifflin Walter Thompson signed Manhattan’s doubled its occupancy at 125 Park expanded by 45,269 SF at 3 Park largest deal of the third quarter, Avenue for a total of 103,515 SF. Avenue, while William Morris Endeavor renewing its 270,000 SF of space at Two blocks of more than 300,000 SF added 44,000 SF at 11 Madison 237 Park Avenue. came online this quarter: 367,585 Avenue for a total occupancy of Park Avenue availability fell to 9.3% in square feet reached the market at 575 114,425 SF. 3Q15, down from 12.3% in 3Q14. Fifth Avenue, and 302,118 SF became SL Green purchased 11 Madison Citadel negotiated a 200,000 SF lease available at 605 Third Avenue. Avenue in August for $2.6 billion, at 425 Park Avenue, which is expected As a result, availability spiked to 15.4% marking the largest single-building to close in 4Q15 and include a record- in 3Q15 from 11.5% in 3Q14. transaction in Manhattan’s history. high $300/SF for the penthouse. PARKUPPER AVENUE FIFTH / PLAZA DISTRICT CHELSEA HUDSON SQUARE PENN STATION Largest deal: MLB Players Association Largest deal: Horizon Media expanded Largest deal: LinkedIn added 124,125 leased 21,762 SF at 12 E 49th Street. its offices at 75 Varick Street by SF in the Empire State Building for a The addition of premium-priced space 155,652 SF for a total of 313,967 SF. total footprint of 280,000 SF. pushed Upper Fifth/Plaza asking rents One Kings Lane leased 51,576 SF at Two large blocks of space came online up to $121.03/SF, a 14% increase from 315 Hudson Street, expanding by 46% in August: 156,807 SF at 1 Penn Plaza one year ago. from its previous offices at 205 Hudson and 106,574 SF at 2 Penn Plaza. Street. Availability dropped 80 basis points to Availability held stable at 7.6%, the 12.3% from 13.1% this time last year. Asking rents jumped to $78.63/SF and lowest rate since mid-2008. finished up 8% year-over-year. GRAND CENTRALWTC / WFC LOWER 6THFINANCIAL AVENUE DISTRICT FINANCIALTIMES DISTRICT SQUARE SOUTH Largest deal: Knight Capital Group Largest deal: Ironshore took 101,958 Largest deal: WeWork signed 65,000 signed 168,873 SF at 300 Vesey Street SF at 28 Liberty Street in July, SF at 404 Fifth Avenue. to relocate from Jersey City. becoming the first major tenant to lease Asking rents rose to $58.53/SF, No large blocks hit the market in 3Q15. space in the building since Fosun surpassing the previous market peak acquired it in 2013. reached in late 2007. Asking rents increased 13% in five years, ending 3Q15 at $73.31/SF. Availability fell 70 basis points to 13.2%. Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research | 10 3Q15 Manhattan Office Market Analysis Manhattan Submarket Matrix Total Availability Rate
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