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Trade Relations Between Taiwan and South Asia Under the New Southbound Policy Journal 第九卷第四期 中華民國一○八年 秋季 ISSN 2223-9413 戰略與評估 Defense 論文 Strategy & Rafiq Dossani Assessment Trade Relations between Taiwan and South Asia under the New Southbound Policy Journal Norah M. Huang Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy and Its Geopolitical Implications in Asia Tsun-yen Wang and Hao-yao Chen Different Beds, Same Dream: Taiwan-India Security Relations in China’s Shadow Rich Girven India’s Relationship with China and Taiwan Vol.9, No.4, Autumn 2019 財團法人國防安全研究院 出版 戰略與評估 第九卷第四期 中華民國一○八年 秋季 Defense Strategy and Assessment Journal Vol.9, No.4, Autumn 2019 出 版 ： 財團法人國防安全研究院 發行人 ： 霍守業 主編 ： 歐錫富 客 座 主 編 : 李俊毅、Rafiq Dossani 執 行 主 編 ： 李哲全 編 輯 委 員 ： 王高成、李瓊莉、李俊毅、李哲全、沈明室、林正義、 林文程、馬振坤、曾偉峯、劉復國、歐錫富 （依姓氏筆劃排列） 助 理 編 輯 ： 陳鴻鈞 校對 ： 陳彥廷、陳蒿堯、舒孝煌、鍾志東 出 版 企 劃 ： 胡國荃 電 話 ： (02)2331-2360 轉 314 傳 真 ： (02)2331-2361 電 子 信 箱 ： [email protected] 院址 ： 10048 臺北市中正區博愛路 172 號 ISSN ： 2223-9413 本刊論文內容屬作者個人意見，不代表本院立場 ヮ䐣僅夓ᷮ 䧪ᴛ∵䧪▙㗝 䖬懂 妔㑅 Trade Relations between Taiwan and South Asia under Rafiq Dossani 1 the New Southbound Policy Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy and Its Geopolitical Norah M. Huang 26 Implications in Asia Different Beds, Same Dream: Tsun-yen Wang Taiwan-India Security 43 Relations in China’s Shadow Hao-yao Chen India’s Relationship with Rich Girven 66 China and Taiwan i Ḛ仃䫟ᶉ Rafiq Dossani Director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, a senior economist at the RAND Corporation, and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. 湫伶沛 ⚳䩳⎘䀋⣏⬠㓧㱣⬠⌂⢓炻䎦ả借㕤怈㘗➢慹㚫⚳ 晃䞼䨞㙐Ṍ㳩䳬炻㑼ả䳬攟㙐∗䞼䨞⒉ˤ℞䞼䨞柀 ➇⊭⏓烉伶ᷕ斄Ὢǵ⎘伶斄Ὢ⍲⌘⣒⋨➇⬱ℐˤġ ġ 䌳⮲⼍ 㖍㛔㜙Ṕ⢾⚳婆⣏⬠⚳晃斄Ὢ⌂⢓炻䎦ả⚳旚⬱ℐ 䞼䨞昊朆⁛䴙⬱ℐ冯幵ḳả⊁䞼䨞㇨≑䎮䞼䨞 ⒉ˤ℞䞼䨞柀➇⊭⏓烉㖍㛔⢾Ṍ斄Ὢǵ㖍㛔旚堃㓧 䫾ǵ㖍㛔朆⁛䴙⬱ℐ嬘柴ǵ⎘䀋㇘⼴㓧㱣䘤⯽ˤ 昛呧⟗ ⚳䩳⎘䀋⣏⬠䣦㚫䥹⬠昊⚳⭞䘤⯽䞼䨞㇨㱽⬠⌂⢓炻 䎦ả⚳旚⬱ℐ䞼䨞昊⚳⭞⬱ℐ冯㰢䫾䞼䨞㇨≑䎮䞼䨞 ⒉ˤ℞䞼䨞柀➇⊭⏓烉㛅歖⋲Ⲟ⋨➇⬱ℐǵ杻⚳⮵⢾ 斄Ὢǵ杻⚳䴻屧㓧䫾ǵ伶⚳冯㜙Ṇ⢾Ṍ斄Ὢˤ Rich Girven Director of the RAND Cyber and Intelligence Policy Center, and a Senior International Defense Research Analyst. ii Ḛ仃䫟ᶉ 䲦仃䕂夯 Rafiq Dossani Director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, 㛔㛇˪㇘䔍冯姽Ộ˫㓞抬ᷳ⚃䭯㔯䪈↢冒 2018 ⸜ 9 㚰 14 㖍 a senior economist at the RAND Corporation, and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. ⚳旚⬱ℐ䞼䨞昊冯伶⚳嗕⽟℔⎠倗⎰冱彎ˬ⎘䀋䘬⋿㕡廱⎹˭ 炷Taiwan’s Southward Pivot炸ⶍἄ⛲炻ẍ哉劙㔯䷥䴙㍸↢䘬ˬ㕘 湫伶沛 ⚳䩳⎘䀋⣏⬠㓧㱣⬠⌂⢓炻䎦ả借㕤怈㘗➢慹㚫⚳ 晃䞼䨞㙐Ṍ㳩䳬炻㑼ả䳬攟㙐∗䞼䨞⒉ˤ℞䞼䨞柀 ⋿⎹㓧䫾˭䁢ᷣ庠炻㍊妶⎘䀋冯㜙⋿Ṇ⍲⋿Ṇ⚳⭞䘬䴻屧冯 ➇⊭⏓烉伶ᷕ斄Ὢǵ⎘伶斄Ὢ⍲⌘⣒⋨➇⬱ℐˤġ ⬱ℐ斄Ὢˤ娚⟜㚫嬘妰㚱ᶫ䭯婾㔯䘤堐炻ἄ侭⊭㊔嗕⽟℔⎠ ġ Ṇ⣒㓧䫾ᷕ⽫䘬➟埴攟 Rafiq Dossani烊嗕⽟℔⎠屯㶙䞼䨞⒉ 䌳⮲⼍ 㖍㛔㜙Ṕ⢾⚳婆⣏⬠⚳晃斄Ὢ⌂⢓炻䎦ả⚳旚⬱ℐ 䞼䨞昊朆⁛䴙⬱ℐ冯幵ḳả⊁䞼䨞㇨≑䎮䞼䨞 Rich Girven烊ᷕ厗䴻㾇䞼䨞昊⎘䀋 WTO ⍲ RTA ᷕ⽫㛶㶛∗ ⒉ˤ℞䞼䨞柀➇⊭⏓烉㖍㛔⢾Ṍ斄Ὢǵ㖍㛔旚堃㓧 䫾ǵ㖍㛔朆⁛䴙⬱ℐ嬘柴ǵ⎘䀋㇘⼴㓧㱣䘤⯽ˤ ➟埴攟冯⎘䀋䴻㾇䞼䨞昊㘗㯋枸㷔ᷕ⽫⬓㖶⽟ᷣả烊ⶍ㤕㈨ 埻䞼䨞昊䓊㤕䥹㈨⚳晃䫾䔍䘤⯽㇨⻝崭佌∗㇨攟ˣ楔⇑刟㤕 昛呧⟗ ⚳䩳⎘䀋⣏⬠䣦㚫䥹⬠昊⚳⭞䘤⯽䞼䨞㇨㱽⬠⌂⢓炻 䎦ả⚳旚⬱ℐ䞼䨞昊⚳⭞⬱ℐ冯㰢䫾䞼䨞㇨≑䎮䞼䨞 ⊁∗䷥䚋冯℞Ṿ⎴ṩ烊怈㘗➢慹㚫⚳晃䞼䨞㙐Ṍ㳩䳬湫伶沛 ⒉ˤ℞䞼䨞柀➇⊭⏓烉㛅歖⋲Ⲟ⋨➇⬱ℐǵ杻⚳⮵⢾ 斄Ὢǵ杻⚳䴻屧㓧䫾ǵ伶⚳冯㜙Ṇ⢾Ṍ斄Ὢˤ 䳬攟烊⚳旚⬱ℐ䞼䨞昊䌳⮲⼍冯昛呧⟗≑䎮䞼䨞⒉烊⚳旚⬱ Rich Girven Director of the RAND Cyber and Intelligence Policy ℐ䞼䨞昊㛶ὲ㭭≑䎮䞼䨞⒉䫱ˤ忁ᶫ䭯婾㔯⃰㕤㚫嬘㍍⍿⬠ Center, and a Senior International Defense Research 侭⮰⭞䘬姽婾炻⽑㕤ᾖ㓡⼴䓙 Rafiq Dossani 冯㛶ὲ㭭㑼ả⭊ Analyst. ⹏ᷣ䶐㍸ὃᾖ㓡⺢嬘炻㚨⼴ℵ䴻˪㇘䔍冯姽Ộ˫䶐⥼㚫䘬⮑ 㞍炻㗗䴻㬟㔠㫉ᾖ㬋⼴䘬䞼䨞ㆸ㝄ˤᶲ㛇⶚↲↢⎘䀋冯㜙⋿ Ṇ斄Ὢ䁢ᷣ柴䘬ᶱ䭯婾㔯炻㛔㛇↲↢⎘䀋冯⋿Ṇ斄Ὢ䁢ᷣ柴 ᷳ⚃䭯婾㔯ˤ ii iii Trade Relations between Taiwan and South Asia under the New Southbound Policy Trade Relations between Taiwan and South Asia under the New Southbound Policy Rafiq Dossani Director Center of Asia Pacific Policy RAND Professor Pardee RAND Graduate School Abstract This paper discusses the prospects for Taiwan’s economic relations with South Asia, focusing on trade issues. The summary picture that emerges is that economic relations between Taiwan and the countries of South Asia largely focuses on India, that economic relations are relatively low compared to Taiwan’s economic relations with the rest of the world, and that these economic relations are largely confined to “old economy,” low value-added items for both imports and exports. This suggests that Taiwan’s progress to a modern economy, driven by intellectual property built around its digital industries – information and communication technologies (ICT), in which Taiwan plays a globally central role, has not connected with similar industries in South Asia, such as India’s software services industry. Put another way, South Asia is not part of the supply chain that Taiwan manages in new-age industries in ICT. We consider possible reasons: (1) Inadequate policy emphasis on new-economy industries and the services sector in Taiwan, perhaps due to established supply chains in East Asia and Southeast Asia; (2) Difficulties of doing business in South Asia due to tariff and non-tariff barriers. We also consider whether there are genuine opportunities for a dramatic change in the economic relations between Taiwan and South Asia, and explore policy options that policymakers on both sides should consider. Keywords: Taiwan, New Southbound Policy (NSP), Trade, South Asia ㇘䔍冯姽Ộ 䫔ḅ⌟䫔⚃㛇 1 Trade Relations between Taiwan and South Asia under the New Southbound Policy 㑮∕⋏㏽䨔᳉⊮㼡僅∕ᵜ䕂孽㓑撚Ẁ Rafiq Dossani ᷣảġ 嗕⽟℔⎠Ṇ⣒㓧䫾ᷕ⽫ġ 㔁㌰ġ 嗕⽟ⶽ徒䞼䨞㇨ġ ㌖ 堿 㛔㔯㍊妶⎘䀋␴⋿Ṇ䴻㾇斄Ὢ䘬⇵㘗炻᷎倂䃎㕤屧㖻嬘柴ˤ㔜橼䘬 䘤䎦㗗⎘䀋␴⋿Ṇ⚳⭞䘬䴻㾇斄Ὢᷣ天普ᷕ㕤⌘⹎烊䚠⮵侴妨炻⎘䀋冯 ⋿Ṇ⚳⭞䘬䴻㾇斄Ὢ庫ᷳ⎘䀋冯ᶾ䓴℞Ṿ⛘⋨䘬斄Ὢ炻᷎ᶵ⭮↯烊ᶼ忁 ṃ斄Ὢᷣ天⯨旸㕤ˬ冲䴻㾇˭炻⌛Ỷ旬≈₡ῤ䓊⑩䘬忚⎋冯↢⎋ˤ忁シ ␛叿⎘䀋⍿⇘㔠ỵ䓊㤕ȹ屯忂妲䥹㈨ȹ䘬㘢ㄏ屉䓊㪲槭ἧ侴䘤⯽炻᷎⛐ ℐ䎫㈖㺼慵天奺刚䘬䎦ẋ䴻㾇炻᷎㛒␴⋿Ṇ⛘⋨䘬䚠Ụ䓊㤕⤪⌘⹎䘬庇 橼㚵⊁㤕䓊䓇忋䳸ˤ㎃⎍娙婒炻⎘䀋⛐䴻䆇℞㕘㗪ẋ䘬屯忂妲䓊㤕㗪炻 ⋿Ṇ᷎朆℞ὃㅱ捰䘬ᶨ䑘ˤ㛔㔯㍊妶㬌ᷕ⎗傥䘬䎮䓙烉(1)ㆾ姙⚈⎘䀋⛐ 㜙Ṇ冯㜙⋿Ṇ㖊㚱䘬ὃㅱ捰ᷳ㓭炻⎘䀋䘬㓧䫾ᶵ⥍↯⛘⻟婧㕘䴻㾇䓊㤕 冯㚵⊁悐攨烊(2)⋿Ṇ䘬斄䦭冯朆斄䦭晄䣁㇨⮶农䘬䴻⓮⚘暋ˤ㛔㔯㍊妶 ⎘䀋冯⋿Ṇ䘬䴻㾇斄Ὢ㗗⏎㚱↢䎦栗叿㓡嬲䘬䛇㬋㨇㚫炻᷎㍊䨞暁怲䘬 㰢䫾侭ㅱ侫慷䘬㓧䫾怠枭ˤ ᜢᗖຒǺѠ᡼ǵཥࠄӛࡹ฼ǵຩܰǵࠄ٥ 2 ᷕ厗㮹⚳ᶨ˕ℓ⸜ 䥳⬋ Trade Relations between Trade Relations between Taiwan and South Asia Taiwan and South Asia under under the New Southbound Policy the New Southbound Policy 㑮∕⋏㏽䨔᳉⊮㼡僅∕ᵜ䕂孽㓑撚Ẁ I. Introduction This paper discusses the prospects for Taiwan’s economic relations Rafiq Dossani with South Asia,1 focusing on trade issues. The summary picture that emerges is that economic relations between Taiwan and the countries of ᷣảġ South Asia largely focuses on India, that economic relations are relatively 嗕⽟℔⎠Ṇ⣒㓧䫾ᷕ⽫ġ low compared to Taiwan’s economic relations with the rest of the world, and that these economic relations are largely confined to “old economy,” low 㔁㌰ġ value-added items for both imports and exports. This suggests that Taiwan’s 嗕⽟ⶽ徒䞼䨞㇨ġ progress to a modern economy, driven by intellectual property built around its digital industries – information and communication technologies (ICT), in which Taiwan plays a globally central role, has not connected with similar industries in South Asia, such as India’s software services industry. ㌖ 堿 Put another way, South Asia is not part of the supply chain that Taiwan manages in new-age industries in ICT. 2 We consider possible reasons: (1) 㛔㔯㍊妶⎘䀋␴⋿Ṇ䴻㾇斄Ὢ䘬⇵㘗炻᷎倂䃎㕤屧㖻嬘柴ˤ㔜橼䘬 Inadequate policy emphasis on new-economy industries and the services 䘤䎦㗗⎘䀋␴⋿Ṇ⚳⭞䘬䴻㾇斄Ὢᷣ天普ᷕ㕤⌘⹎烊䚠⮵侴妨炻⎘䀋冯 sector in Taiwan, perhaps due to established supply chains in East Asia and ⋿Ṇ⚳⭞䘬䴻㾇斄Ὢ庫ᷳ⎘䀋冯ᶾ䓴℞Ṿ⛘⋨䘬斄Ὢ炻᷎ᶵ⭮↯烊ᶼ忁 Southeast Asia; (2) Difficulties of doing business in South Asia due to tariff ṃ斄Ὢᷣ天⯨旸㕤ˬ冲䴻㾇˭炻⌛Ỷ旬≈₡ῤ䓊⑩䘬忚⎋冯↢⎋ˤ忁シ and non-tariff barriers. We also consider whether there are genuine ␛叿⎘䀋⍿⇘㔠ỵ䓊㤕ȹ屯忂妲䥹㈨ȹ䘬㘢ㄏ屉䓊㪲槭ἧ侴䘤⯽炻᷎⛐ opportunities for a dramatic change in the economic relations between ℐ䎫㈖㺼慵天奺刚䘬䎦ẋ䴻㾇炻᷎㛒␴⋿Ṇ⛘⋨䘬䚠Ụ䓊㤕⤪⌘⹎䘬庇 Taiwan and South Asia, and explore policy options that policymakers on 橼㚵⊁㤕䓊䓇忋䳸ˤ㎃⎍娙婒炻⎘䀋⛐䴻䆇℞㕘㗪ẋ䘬屯忂妲䓊㤕㗪炻 both sides should consider. ⋿Ṇ᷎朆℞ὃㅱ捰䘬ᶨ䑘ˤ㛔㔯㍊妶㬌ᷕ⎗傥䘬䎮䓙烉(1)ㆾ姙⚈⎘䀋⛐ 㜙Ṇ冯㜙⋿Ṇ㖊㚱䘬ὃㅱ捰ᷳ㓭炻⎘䀋䘬㓧䫾ᶵ⥍↯⛘⻟婧㕘䴻㾇䓊㤕 This paper proceeds as follows. We first provide an assessment of 冯㚵⊁悐攨烊(2)⋿Ṇ䘬斄䦭冯朆斄䦭晄䣁㇨⮶农䘬䴻⓮⚘暋ˤ㛔㔯㍊妶 Taiwan’s global status as an economy (Section 2). This is done in order to ⎘䀋冯⋿Ṇ䘬䴻㾇斄Ὢ㗗⏎㚱↢䎦栗叿㓡嬲䘬䛇㬋㨇㚫炻᷎㍊䨞暁怲䘬 discover where its global comparative advantages lie. We then turn to an 㰢䫾侭ㅱ侫慷䘬㓧䫾怠枭ˤ ᜢᗖຒǺѠ᡼ǵཥࠄӛࡹ฼ǵຩܰǵࠄ٥ 1 The paper does not analyze economic relations with all eight South Asian countries, but focuses only on Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. This is justified because these three countries accounted for 96.3% of the population and 96% of the foreign trade of South Asia. See Central Intelligence Agency, “World Factbook,” 2019, Central Intelligence Agency, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook. 2 New age industries in Taiwan’s ICT sector comprise mainly hardware products that are high value-added. They include high-performance computers, flexible displays, mobility devices, and chips that are designed for artificial intelligence applications such as image sensing and speech recognition. 2 ᷕ厗㮹⚳ᶨ˕ℓ⸜ 䥳⬋ ㇘䔍冯姽Ộ 䫔ḅ⌟䫔⚃㛇 3 Trade Relations between Taiwan and South Asia under the New Southbound Policy assessment of its economic relations with South Asia (Section 3). In this section, we explore the current state of relations, examine challenges and opportunities, and explore policy options for large-scale improvement. Given the globally important role played by services, especially services in ICT sectors, we look at the special case of services trade between India and Taiwan in Section 4. Section 5 provides a concluding discussion. II. Taiwan’s Global Presence As of 2017, Taiwan is a developed country with per capita income of $49,800, 30% above the OECD average of $38,175. About 60% of the working age population participates in the workforce and the share of services to GDP is 62%. Taiwan has a high tertiary enrollment rate of 70%, the world’s second highest after South Korea.3 See Table 1 below for comparisons with the OECD and a similar sized developed country, Australia. 3 Data complied from Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), https://stats.oecd.org, data for 2017; Chuing Prudence Chou, “Education in Taiwan: Taiwan’s Colleges and Universities,” Brookings Institution, November 12, 2014, https://www.brookings.edu/.../education-in-taiwan-taiwans-colleges-and-universities.
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