SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2020 THIS SIDE UP: CANADIAN HOTY LIKELY TO BE DECIDED SATURDAY AT WOODBINE by Bill Finley IF YOU CAN RUN, While the U.S. Horse of the Year race was all but decided when Authentic (Into Mischief) won the GI Breeders= Cup Classic YOU WON'T HAVE TO HIDE Nov. 7, the race for the Canadian title remains wide open entering a Saturday card at Woodbine that will feature the four top contenders for the year-end honor. The sentimental favorite is the 8-year-old Pink Lloyd (Old Forester), but he will face one of the toughest tests in his career when he goes in the GII Kennedy Road S. A loss could open the door for 3-year-olds Belichick (Lemon Drop Kid) and Mighty Heart (Dramedy), who, combined, swept the Canadian Triple Crown races for trainer Josie Carroll. Starship Jubilee (Indy Wind), who beat males in the GI Woodbine Mile, may be the best horse who was based at Woodbine this year, but she is not eligible for the Sovereign Awards because she hasn=t met the minimum requirement of having three starts in Canada this year. Cont. p6 IN TDN EUROPE TODAY Lookin At Lucky | Coolmore photo GHAIYYATH CROWNED HORSE OF THE YEAR The four-time Group 1 winner is the third horse to earn the title by Chris McGrath for Godolphin, joining Daylami and Fantastic Light. Click or tap here to go straight to TDN Europe. "When you figure it out, let me know." Those were the parting words of a highly esteemed breeder this week, after we exchanged a few thoughts on the diminishing viability of stallions once they have covered their first book of mares. Not that "diminishing," as an adjective, is really equal to the case. I suppose you could diminish down a lift shaft, but it wouldn't be the first word that would occur to you in the time available. Spoiler alert: I haven't figured it out. But I think I know where we might start. We all know that most stallions never earn a fee higher than their opening one; and that things are nowadays getting tough even for stallions entering their second year. Such is the nervousness of commercial breeders about taking a yearling to market once its sire has been exposed even to the (highly unimaginative) judgement of the sales ring; never mind about sticking around long enough to see whether the stock can actually run. Cont. p3 PUBLISHER & CEO Sue Morris Finley @suefinley [email protected] SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT Gary King @garykingTDN [email protected] EDITORIAL [email protected] Editor-in-Chief Jessica Martini @JessMartiniTDN Managing Editor Saturday, November 21, 2020 Alan Carasso @EquinealTDN Senior Editor Steve Sherack @SteveSherackTDN Racing Editor Brian DiDonato @BDiDonatoTDN Deputy Editor Christie DeBernardis @CDeBernardisTDN Associate Editors Christina Bossinakis @CBossTDN Joe Bianca @JBiancaTDN News and Features Editor In Memoriam: Ben Massam (1988-2019) ADVERTISING [email protected] Director of Advertising Alycia Borer Advertising Manager Lia Best Advertising Designer Amanda Crelin Advertising Assistant/Dir. Of Distribution Rachel McCaffrey Advertising Assistants Amie Newcomb Kristen Lomasson Photographer/Photo Editor Sarah K. Andrew @SarahKAndrew [email protected] Three-time Grade I winner Gamine (Into Mischief), whose last out was a runaway score Social Media Strategist Justina Severni in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, arrived safely at Trifecta Farm in San Luis Rey, California on Friday for 30 days of R & R. | Courtesy Bob Baffert Associate Producer Katie Ritz TORONTO ON LOCKDOWN 12 Director of Customer Service A mandatory 28-day lockdown of Toronto and one of its suburbs could Vicki Forbes mean the end of racing at Woodbine for 2020. [email protected] Marketing Manager TODAY’S GRADED STAKES Alayna Cullen @AlaynaCullen ET Race Click for TV Director of IT & Accounting 3:45p Red Smith S.-GIII, AQU TJCIS PPs FS2 Ray Villa 4:00p Native Diver S.-GIII, DMR TJCIS PPs TVG [email protected] 4:58p Ontario Derby-GIII, WO TJCIS PPs TVG [email protected] 5:06p Chilukki S.-GIII, CD TJCIS PPs TVG WORLDWIDE INFORMATION 5:28p Kennedy Road S.-GII, WO TJCIS PPs TVG International Editor 5:58p Bessarabian S.-GII, WO TJCIS PPs TVG Kelsey Riley @kelseynrileyTDN [email protected] European Editor Emma Berry [email protected] Associate International Editor Heather Anderson @HLAndersonTDN Newmarket Bureau, Cafe Racing Sean Cronin & Tom Frary [email protected] 60 Broad Street, Suite 100 Red Bank, NJ 07701 732-747-8060 | www.TheTDN.com TDN HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 3 OF 16 • THETDN.COM SATURDAY • NOVEMBER 21, 2020 Many farms have duly sought to incentivize loyalty to new stallions. Breed your mare to such-and-such a horse for his first two years, for instance, and you can come back gratis ever after. Of course, there's a pretty bleak inference. By the time you get free access, many stallions may have reached a point where you would rather pay to go elsewhere anyway. The woman who contacted me this week suggested that farms might extend the logic behind such schemes precisely to those stallions who are now going "cold." Cutting their fees, she remarked, always feels like a kick in the teeth to those who supported them the previous year. Say you paid $30,000 for the foal in your mare's belly; and now, even before its delivery, the same sire is down to $20,000. That puts a red flag over your foal straightaway, and will hardly encourage you to double down with a return cover. Perhaps, then, farms could play nice with my breeder by going back to her and saying: "Look, we're sorry about devaluing your investment in our horse. You believed in him, after all--and we still do. So we'd like to invite you back. If you're prepared to persevere with him for 2021, at his new fee of $20,000, we'll backdate that rate to this pregnancy as well." The farm would only get $40,000 for two covers, instead of the $50,000 due at the prevailing rates. But that's still a whole lot better than $30,000 for one cover, plus zilch for the next year as the disgruntled breeder seeks sanctuary in some random freshman. In theory, remember, fee cuts are only made in the hope of encouraging custom--but how often do they achieve precisely the reverse effect? Even this kind of inventive concession might not be enough for breeders to whom any savings on fee may seem relatively marginal, relative to the depreciation invited by that red flag. But the farm, in that case, would still get to trouser its $30,000. If farm and breeder can meet in the middle, however, the "cooling" stallion might yet be able to stay in the game a little longer; long enough, perhaps, to earn a more realistic assessment than is typically made of a single crop of juveniles, often by a stallion who only earned his place at stud by thriving with maturity round a second turn. And that, in turn, might even reduce the frequency with which farms cut their losses and sell a stallion overseas or into a regional program--which is akin to sticking that red flag right under the tail of your poor yearling. TDN HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 4 OF 16 • THETDN.COM SATURDAY • NOVEMBER 21, 2020 This Side Up cont. Regardless of whether this suggestion would be practicable, or effective, the key is that stallion farms and breeders work together to break the vicious cycle devaluing the commodities traded by both. Because while their mutual arrangements ultimately only determine "supply," both might enjoy greater security if the "demand" were better educated. Gradually I am beginning to grasp how farms and breeders alike feel pretty helpless about the overloading of new stallions. Certainly the farm accountants would like nothing better than business balanced through the roster. As it is, everyone is at the mercy of the purchasers. Because it's the guy sticking a hand up at ringside who really needs to put a premium on the horse bred to run, as opposed to the one produced merely to look the part on the rostrum. There are two big problems in current purchasing behavior. One is that so much of it is driven by pinhooks: yet another commercial cycle, in other words, dividing the planning of a mating from the aspiration to win races. The other is that the professionals guiding end-users--veterinarians, agents and so on--are directing traffic to the show ponies. In some cases, okay, they simply want to avoid appearing at fault for any structural defects that may emerge later. In others, however, they are taking out a less pardonable insurance. If they were trying to provide a real service for their patrons, they would buy or breed a horse by, for instance, the perennially under-rated Lookin At Lucky. But they don't want to say: "Just look, sir/madam, at the fantastic value I have secured. I can only do that for you because everyone else is too dumb, or too scared, to risk walking back through the herd." Instead they steer the action to stallion X, saying: "Don't blame ME if this goes wrong. Because you can see the whole community of experts just loves this guy." Cont. p5 Daredevil | Louise Reinagel Live Oak Plantation and Souper Watson congratulate MARK CASSE on his 3,000th career win. Happy to carry you over the line. We look forward to your induction in the Hall of Fame. Souper Watson 9275 SW 9th St Rd, Ocala, FL 34481 (352) 854-2691 | www.LiveOakStud.com TDN HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 5 OF 16 • THETDN.COM SATURDAY • NOVEMBER 21, 2020 This Side Up cont.