manuscript submitted to Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 1 Data-Model Comparisons of Tropical Hydroclimate Changes Over the Common Era 2 A. R. Atwood1*, D. S. Battisti2, E. Wu2, D. M. W. Frierson2, J. P. Sachs3 3 1Florida State University, Dept. of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, USA 4 2University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA 98195, USA 5 3University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle, WA 98195, USA 6 7 Corresponding author: Alyssa Atwood (
[email protected]) 8 9 Key Points: 10 • A synthesis of 67 tropical hydroclimate records from 55 sites indicate several regionally- 11 coherent patterns of change during the Common Era 12 • Robust patterns include a regional drying event from 800-1000 CE and a range of tropical 13 hydroclimate changes ~1400-1700 CE 14 • Poor agreement between the centennial-scale changes in the reconstructions and transient 15 model simulations of the last millennium 16 manuscript submitted to Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 17 Abstract 18 We examine the evidence for large-scale tropical hydroclimate changes over the Common Era 19 based on a compilation of 67 tropical hydroclimate records from 55 sites and assess the 20 consistency between the reconstructed hydroclimate changes and those simulated by transient 21 model simulations of the last millennium. Our synthesis of the proxy records reveal several 22 regionally-coherent patterns on centennial timescales. From 800-1000 CE, records from the 23 eastern Pacific and northern Mesoamerica indicate a pronounced drying event relative to 24 background conditions of the Common Era. In addition, 1400-1700 CE is marked by pronounced 25 hydroclimate changes across the tropics, including an inferred strengthening of the South 26 American summer monsoon, weakened Asian summer monsoons, and fresher conditions in the 27 Maritime Continent.