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BRIEF www.west-africa-brief.org

No. 275, 6-28 February 2019

▶▶ Fespaco turns 50 ▶▶ Beating famine in the Sahel ▶▶ Senegal: Macky Sall wins re-election ▶▶ : President Buhari wins second term ▶▶ Must read: Suffering in silence ▶▶ Must read: Contemporary civil-military relations in the Sahel ▶▶ Opinion: In the Sahel, the vacuum left by the state is fanning the flames of terrorism ▶▶ Who’s who: Aishatu Binani, senator of Adamawa Central ▶▶ Maps & Facts: Voter turnout in West Africa

Fespaco turns 50

award. The best actress award went to Samantha Mugotsia who played in “Rafiki,” a love story between two women in Kenya. The 50th anniversary celebration offered a moment of reflection on the theme, “Memory and future of the African cinema.” Created in 1969, the festival has always had a strong track record promoting social change and cultural diversity. This year’s edition was more open to non-French- speaking African films, with feature films in Swahili and Portuguese. It also addressed some unexplored territories, such as autism and violence against women. Rwanda was the guest country of honour during the 26th edition of the festival. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta of Mali and President of Rwanda both participated © Fespaco in the celebrations and both received the ‘Grand Croix de l’Etalon’ award from their Burkinabe host, President Africa’s largest film festival, the Pan-African Film Roch Marc Christian Kaboré. The president of the African and Television Festival of Ouagadougou (FESPACO), Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, called for an celebrated its 50th anniversary from 24 February-2 March. “intellectual, cultural and pedagogical awakening,” to be The 26th edition of the festival brought together nearly able “to profoundly change the way we look at ourselves, 100 000 film-lovers and screened 165 films from 16 African at what we have and what we can do”. Women remain countries. The government deployed about 2 000 security underrepresented, with only four women out a total of forces to maximize security surveillance and protect the 16 filmmakers. The Burkinabé Apolline Traoré was one of the festival. Joël Karekezi, a Rwandan filmmaker, won the favourite candidates going in, but she only won a technical prestigious Golden Stallion of Yennenga for his “Mercy of prize for her film “Desrances” about Côte d’Ivoire’s post- the Jungle,” a film that denounces the absurdity of war. His election violence. No woman filmmaker has ever won the main actor, Marc Zinga, won the best male performance top prize. The next Fespaco edition will take place in 2021.

The West Africa Brief is published by the Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD). It presents political, economic and social developments in the region. Special focus is given to news regarding regional organisations (ECOWAS, UEMOA, CILSS) as well other SWAC Members’ activities. The articles should not be reported as representing the offi cial views of the OECD or of its member countries. Contact: [email protected]

SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA Club www.west-africa-brief.org Secretariat Beating famine in the Sahel

The Beating Famine Sahel Conference, held from year would need to be restored by 2030. A combination 26‑28 February in Bamako, Mali, focused on farmer- of sustainable management and restoration strategies managed natural regeneration (FMNR) and other successful now exist, including FMNR, agroforestry tree planting and land restoration initiatives in the Sahel. It is estimated sustainable land and water/soil management practices, to that FMNR has spread to 21-million hectares in the West restore the productivity of the production systems (crops, African Sahel, making the region a world leader of the pastoral and forest landscapes). While cost-effective and land restoration movement. The conference participants appropriate interventions are available, they are not yet adopted a declaration to rally support to restore 100-million well known or widely used. The conference provided an hectares of degraded land within the African Forest opportunity for participants to share successful strategies, Landscapes Restoration Initiative (AFR100). Thematic create a supportive network of practitioners and mobilise sessions covered a large array of topics, including land partners. Organised by the World Vision and the World restoration for food security and nutrition, agroecology Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), with the support of many in the drylands and strategies for empowering women international partners (CILSS, FAO, SOS Sahel), the and youth to engage in land restoration. An assessment conference brought together some 400 key stakeholders. of restoration opportunities in the Great Green Wall core Previous editions took place in Kenya (2012) and intervention area estimated that 10-million hectares per Malawi (2015).

Senegal: Macky Sall wins re-election

Incumbent President Macky Sall gathered 2.5 million three years. However, these positive trends have not yet votes (58%) during the first round of Senegal’s presidential sufficiently translated into improvements of peoples’ living election on 24 February, thus avoiding a second round conditions. Youth employment remains the key challenge with a stronger, more united opposition. The two main for Senegal, a youthful country where the median age of opposition candidates, Idrissa Seck and Ousmane Sonko the population is 19- years-old. During his new five-year obtained 21.5% and 15.67% respectively. Khalifa Sall, term, President Sall is expected to continue implementing the former mayor of Dakar, and Karim Wade, the son of his Emerging Senegal Plan aimed at promoting structural former President Abdoulaye Wade, were unable to run economic transformation, human capital and good because of corruption convictions. Voter turnout was high governance, and establishing the conditions for the (66%) compared to 2012 levels (51.6% during the first “emergence of a new Senegal,” by 2035. “This renewed trust round). Some 6.7 million Senegalese registered to vote, motivates me to work twice as hard, to do more and better,” including people in the diaspora and two out of three President Sall declared. A large number of regional and cast their ballots. President Sall’s campaign focused on international observers followed the elections and judged his infrastructure record; the promotion of global health it as, “credible, peaceful and transparent.” The opposition coverage, which increased from 20 to 47% during his first rejected the results, but decided not to appeal. The new mandate; and the country’s strong economic growth swearing-in ceremony is scheduled to take place on 2 April. rate, which has reached to more than 6% during the past

Nigeria: President Buhari wins second term

Following a last-minute postponement, Nigeria’s general compared to the 2015 election. Election results usually elections were eventually held on 23 February. Incumbent reflect a north-south divide. However, this year both top President Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected in the candidates are Muslim and come from northern states. first round for a second four-year mandate with 55.6% While Buhari was born to a Fulani family in Katsina, one of votes (15.2 million people). His closest rival, former of Nigeria’s most populous states, Abubakar is the former Vice-President gained 41.2% of votes Governor of Adamawa State in the insecure Lake area. (11.3 million people). Abubakar rejected the results released The campaign focused on Nigeria’s three top challenges: by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC), insecurity, the weak economy and corruption. While Buhari denouncing the vote as a “sham election” and setting says he intends to take the country to the “next level,” up a legal team to challenge results. Civil society groups Abukar promised to “to get Nigeria working again.” Nigeria reported violent incidents at various polling stations; it is is one of the most youthful countries in the world, but its estimated that nearly 40 people were killed on election political landscape is dominated by the older generation. day. Some 73 registered candidates ran for president. Both top candidates are in their 70s. A new bill was The number of candidates stands in sharp contrast to signed in 2018 to reduce the minimum age of presidential the low voter turnout, which dropped to a historic low of candidates to 30-years-old. Nigeria also has one of the 34.7%, the lowest since Nigeria returned to democratic lowest rates of female participation in parliament. Women rule in 1999. Voter participation was also weak during the hold only 5.3% of seats in Nigeria’s state assemblies. The last presidential election in 2015 (43.6%). However, the low voter turnout illustrates a growing sense of a disconnect number of registered voters (84 million) increased by 18% between the Nigerian people and its political elite. Must read Suffering in silence The third edition of the CARE report humanitarian operations more dangerous highlights the 10 most under-reported and more difficult. Similarly, ongoing humanitarian crises of 2018. Seven out conflicts in the Lake Chad region continue of 10 crises, which also received the least to disrupt livelihoods and markets, forcing media attention, are in Africa, including thousands of people to flee their homes. Chad and . Both countries struggle Chad hosts more than 450 000 refugees with the burden of hosting displaced from neighbouring countries, including people and chronic food insecurity. the Central African Republic, Nigeria and For example, the south-eastern Diffa Sudan. The report presents a snapshot region of Niger currently hosts some of international media attention and 119 000 refugees and 104 000 internally- contributes to a broader, global discussion displaced people. Border regions suffer aimed at promoting awareness and Suffering In Silence from frequent attacks and insecurity. The ultimately delivering humanitarian aid The 10 most under-reported humanitarian crises of 2018 insecurity interrupts markets and makes more effectively to those in need. CARE/Josh Estey © CARE/Josh

Contemporary civil-military relations in the Sahel

The relationship between a country’s rule. The Sahel as a whole continues to West African Papers armed forces and its government is a struggle primarily with domestic security Contemporary Civil-Military Relations in the Sahel West African Papers crucial indicator of the quality of its threats. The stabilisation of precarious The paper examines the evolution and the contemporary state of civil-military relations in the francophone Sahel (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal). In a first step, the paper traces the emergence of excessive political influence of the armed forces (praetorianism) in the Sahel. Out of these, only Senegal has Contemporary Civil-Military remained under civilian rule since independence. The other countries have experienced security situations and the promotion at some point. Over the last thirty years, the Sahel has seen a shift toward more civilian oversight in political and its degree of political affairs. In Chad and Mauritania, however, the armed forces remain the pre-eminent political actor. In Burkina Relations in the Sahel Faso, Mali and Niger, sections of the armed forces refuse to accept civilian rule. The second part examines the various challenges and tasks the armed forces in all six countries have been involved in over the last two decades. Although these challenges differ substantially across the six individual countries, the Sahel as a whole stability. The SWAC Secretariat’s most of democratic institutions should be continues to struggle primarily with domestic security threats. The paper concludes with guidelines designed to foster civilian oversight and democratic reform.

FEBRUARY 2019 NO. 19 recent West African Paper analyses seen as two sides of the same coin. civil-military relations in six Sahelian Partners should, therefore, continue to countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, provide military assistance to the Sahel Mauritania, Niger and Senegal). Over the while fostering civilian oversight and last 30 years, these countries have seen democratic reform. Accountability and a shift toward more civilian oversight in transparency are key to preventing the political affairs. However, democratic erosion of civilian oversight in military institutions remain fragile. In Chad and affairs. “Any Western support for Sahelian This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. Mauritania, the armed forces remain the armed forces should ensure that money pre-eminent political actor. In Burkina is spent in accordance with verifiable Faso, Mali and Niger, sections of the criteria and that those criteria are made

2019-COVER-noa-civil-military_21x28.indd 1 08-Feb-2019 5:42:31 PM armed forces refuse to accept civilian public,” the author concludes.

Opinion In the Sahel, the vacuum left by the state is fanning the flames of terrorism In this interview, published by Le Point organisations. Losada commended the Afrique, EU Special Representative for political will of G5 Sahel countries in the Sahel Angel Losada analyses the finding their own solutions to combat unstable situation in the Sahel. “There terrorism. He also spoke about the are hundreds of Sahels,” he explained. need for better international response Losada distinguishes three types of Sahel: co-ordination. “We have a problem of 1) the geographic Sahel, covering a land co‑ordination: there are 16 or 17 strategies strip of 1 800 km and 5 million square for the Sahel. That is good because it kilometers from the Atlantic Ocean to the shows an increasing interest in the region. Red Sea across 11 or 12 countries; 2) the The European Union was the first to define institutional Sahel, created in 2014 by the a dedicated Sahel strategy and remains G5 Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, the region’s main donor, especially thanks Mali, Mauritania and Niger); and 3) the to the support of Federica Mogherini. geostrategic Sahel, covering the broader However, there is a real risk of duplication. Maghreb-Sahel-West Africa region, and We need strong to co-ordinate also involving regional and international these efforts,” he declared. Maps & Facts Voter turnout in West Africa

(2014) (2016) Mauritania Cabo Verde (2018) 56.5% (2016) 35.5% Mali Niger (2016) (2019) 42.7% 59.8% Chad (2016) Senegal 66.2% 66% Gambia (2015) Burkina Faso 59.4%(2014) Guinea- (2015) 60% (2016) Bissau Guinea (2019) 68.4% (2016) 66.1% 89.3% Sierra (2015) Nigeria (2018) Leone Côte (2015) 34.8% (2017) 68.6% 84.2% d’Ivoire Togo 52.9% 75.2% 60.9%

Voter turnout in presidential elections (year)

< 40% 40 < 50% 50 < 60% 60 < 70% ≥ 70%

Source: Voter turnout database, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA)

Voter turnout is a key indicator of the vitality of a democracy. the absolute number of Nigerians who are voting has declined It helps measure the trust that citizens place in their political (30.2 million in 1999 compared to 28.6 million in 2019). A large institutions and politicians, and shows how citizens participate number of socio‑economic, political and institutional factors in the governance of their country. Low turnout is usually influences the decision to vote. For example, the President associated with voter apathy and a lack of confidence in the Jorge Carlos Fonseca of Cabo Verde secured a second term in government, institutions and political processes. While the global the 2016 election, winning 73% of the vote in the first round. average voter turnout has decreased significantly since the 1990s, The election had a record-low voter turnout of 35.5%, mainly registered voter participation in Africa’s still-fragile because Fonseca’s re-election was widely expected. Moreover, has varied widely between countries and over time. Nigeria is voter intimidation, electoral violence and fraud can also prevent the most striking example. Since the return of democracy in registered voters from casting their ballots. Despite efforts to 1999, voter turnout reached a peak of 69% in 2003 and has then engage new, young voters, some West African countries show a continuously declined to a record-low of 34.8% in 2019. While significant divergence between the number of registered voters Nigeria’s population has nearly doubled over the past 20 years and number of people who are eligible to vote. and there are about 25 million additional registered voters,

Who’s Who: Aishatu Binani, senator of Adamawa Central Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed, Infinity Telecoms Ltd. and Quest Ventures. According to a report popularly named Binani, won published by Sahara Reporters, she was accused of being involved the senatorial seat of Adamawa in a corruption scandal, together with her husband Modibbo Central in Nigeria’s general Mohammed, the former executive secretary of the Universal Basic elections of 23 February 2019. Education Commission (UBEC), who allegedly embezzled over The 47-year-old politician 50 wbillion nairas from primary and junior secondary schools. and business woman is the Binani is not a newcomer to the Nigerian political landscape. She only female senator from the was previously a member of the 7th National Assembly where she North to be elected to the represented Yola North, Yola South and Girei Federal Constituency upper chamber of parliament. of Adamawa State from 2011 to 2015. In a video posted on Her election came as a surprise as she ran for the governing YouTube, Binani highlights some of her social-economic activities All Progressive Congress (APC) Party in the stronghold of to help develop local health care services, ICT facilities for schools, President Buhari’s main rival Atiku Abubakar, who won the measures for local farmers and the strategies to fight against crime. state in the presidential elections. Binani is the owner of various In her profile, she describes herself as follows: “Senator- companies such as Binani Nigeria Ltd., Binwa Press Limited, Elect, Adamawa Central. Wife. Mother. Entrepreneur. Dream chaser. Triangular Communications Ltd., Golden Crescent Nigeria Ltd., Politician. Advocate of good governance.”