Macro Study of Spatial Development Area on Tourism Village in Tabanan, Bali

MACRO STUDY OF SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA ON TOURISM VILLAGE IN TABANAN, BALI

Widhianthini

Doctoral Program of Regional Planning, Bogor Agricultural University, Lecturer in Agriculture Faculty, University of Udayana

[email protected]

Abstract

Macro study is one approach that combines rational method that is based on the results of previous studies by the authority with the empirical method that utilizes survey techniques. The purpose of this macro study is to identify and analyze the strengths, and the limiting factor, as well as the needs of the district; and recommend programs and models required by the community to achieve sustainable development. This study uses Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), interview techniques (Semi Structured Interview), the technique of focused group discussion (Focus Group Discussion, FGD), Rapid Appraisal District (RDA), then analyzed by empirical and dynamical systems. Assessment of macro studies is particularly relevant in developing regions, especially rural areas, based on the advantages that exist, such as in Tabanan. Tabanan is a granary in Bali. and the zoning of agricultural commodities and is in quadrant III, the rural farming area with combined functions between the cultivated area and the rural areas are supported by the tourism department. Studies of the area in the form of potential analysis, problem analysis, requirements analysis into guidelines for preparing development scenarios and program formats. Studies of this will then constitute the factors driving the realization of sustainable development of tourism villages in supporting sustainable agriculture.

Keyword: macro study, potentials analysis, problems analysis, scenario analysis, format program

Abstrak

Studi makro adalah salah satu pendekatan yang memadukan metode rasional yang didasarkan pada hasil-hasil kajian sebelumnya oleh instansi yang berwenang dengan metode empirik yang memanfaatkan teknik survei. Tujuan studi makro ini adalah mengidentifikasi dan menganalisis potensi, masalah, dan faktor pembatas, serta kebutuhan di kabupaten; dan merekomendasikan program-program dan model yang dibutuhkan masyarakat untuk mewujudkan pembangunan yang berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), teknik wawancara (Semi Structure Interview), teknik diskusi kelompok secara terfokus (Focus Group Discussion, FGD), Rapid District Appraisal (RDA), kemudian dianalisis secara empirik dan sistem dinamik. Pengkajian studi makro ini sangat relevan dalam mengembangkan suatu wilayah, khususnya perdesaan yang berdasarkan keunggulan-keunggulan yang ada, seperti di Kabupaten Tabanan. Kabupaten Tabanan merupakan lumbung padi di Propinsi Bali. dan merupakan pewilayahan komoditas pertanian dan berada di kwadran III, yaitu kawasan budidaya perdesaan dengan fungsi gabungan antara kawasan budidaya dan kawasan perdesaan dengan didukung oleh kawasan pariwisata. Kajian-kajian wilayah dalam bentuk analisis potensi, analisis masalah, analisis kebutuhan menjadi pedoman untuk menyusun skenario pembangunan dan format program. Kajian-kajian inilah nantinya merupakan faktor–faktor pendorong terwujudnya pembangunan kawasan desa wisata berkelanjutan dalam menopang pertanian berkelanjutan.

Kata kunci: studi makro, analisis potensial, analisis masalah, analisis kebutuhan, analisis skenario, dan format program

Corresphonding author: Email: [email protected]

INTRODUCTION with the potential and attractiveness of Regional development planning is each (Tarin, 2006). a blend of the sectoral approach with a Today there is a great tendency of regional approach. The need for the the government, especially local development of the region requires a governments to pay more attention to preliminary study that is often formatted rural development as a strong as well as planning. Setiono (2011) foundation for further development. This describes the planning definition coined is done for the reduction of misleading by Nehru. Nehru defines planning in a policy in the past, where the top-down simple and pragmatic that "planning is planning hatching at that time still the exercise of intelligence to deal with dominated than the bottom-up planning. facts and situations as they are and find In realizing the integration, it is a way to solve problems." Planning is a necessary to do the initial assessment projection that is expected to occur before launched a program, namely within a certain period in the future so through the study of macro. that the planners need to calculate and This macro studies aim to prepare analyze and make assumptions that an integrated development plan for the projections will be achieved. district. The specific objective is to Development planning requires sectoral identify and analyze the strengths, and regional approaches. weaknesses, limiting factors, and the The sectoral approach is the need in the district that will ultimately approach that was originally neglected recommend programs that people need factor space (spatial). The sectoral on an ongoing basis. approach is more attention to the sector Tabanan regency is one of or commodity then after the analyzed regencies in Bali which has the largest result in projects proposed to be rice fields (22 453 ha) with a number of implemented. Once the project is known Subak Subak 228 experienced wetland then determined the location of the conversion is very rapid after the project. Regional approach is an Badung regency. In 2013 recorded approach that takes into account the wetland conversion of 204 hectares, is room with all the conditions. This greater than in the year 2009 of 97 ha regional approach looking at the region (Department of Agriculture Tabanan as a collection of parts smaller regions Regency 2014). This condition is very

2 contradiction with the Tabanan development of raw material processing predicate as the rice granary of the industry of agricultural products. The island of Bali. It is necessary to do the growth rate of the industrial sector arrangement of integrated and decreased from 12.45 percent in 2012 sustainable development through the to 0.25 percent in 2013. management of regional development. Tabanan regency is directly or indirectly influenced by the development Economic Conditions Tabanan of regional economy of Bali. In the era of Regency The composition of the GDP the 1970s until the 1980s the economy distribution per sector for five years of Bali is still concentrated on the period (2009 to 2013), the agricultural reliability of the agricultural sector as a sector is still occupying the highest major source of Balinese life. But along position to the GDP the Tabanan with the development of the national regency. The average contribution of the economy and the development of other agricultural sector to the GDP the sectors such as trade, hotels and Tabanan regency is at 30.63 percent. restaurants, the proportion of the role of Tabanan Regency BPS data agriculture in GDP formation Bali (2014) show that the rate of GDP growth becomes smaller. in Tabanan regency fluctuate. In 2013 Bali's economy is built by relying decreased compared to the year 2012, on the tourism industry as a "leading namely 7.57 percent to 6.01 percent. sector", has been able to enhance the The development of the agricultural structural changes in the regional sector have not been followed by the economy of Bali.

Table 1 Percentage Distribution of Tabanan Regency GRDP by Industrial Origin at Current Market Prices, Period 2009-2013 (%)

Field of Work 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Agriculture 32,43 31,50 30,23 29,46 29,55 Mining/Excavation 0,39 0,39 0,40 0,42 0,37 Industry 6,84 6,97 6,83 6,95 6,56 Electricity and drinking water 1,15 1,19 1,24 1,28 1,23 Buildings 4,22 4,27 4,39 4,52 4,56 Trade, hotels and restaurants 23,07 23,46 24,04 24,59 23,06 Transportation and communication 5,88 5,82 5,76 5,83 5,42 Banks and other financial institutions 6,69 6,74 6,68 6,60 6,76 Services 19,32 19,67 20,43 20,35 22,49 Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) 100 100 100 100 100 Source: Statistics Central Bureau (Badan Pusat Statistik) of Tabanan Regency (2014)

Economic developments in regency of Tabanan when compared Tabanan directly or indirectly influenced with the economic structure of the by the development of regional province of Bali, where it appears the economy of Bali. In the era of the 1970s role of sectoral patterns of sharpening until the 1980s the economy of Bali is that has been consistent, namely a still concentrated on the reliability of the decline in the contribution of agriculture agricultural sector as a major source of and leads to increased contribution of Balinese life. But along with the the tertiary sector. development of the national economy Government Tabanan regency has and the development of other sectors a big challenge in the context of such as trade, hotels and restaurants, exploring the potential and in the the proportion of the role of agriculture regions (core competition), especially in GDP formation Bali becomes smaller. agricultural commodities that have high The same is also indicated by the competitiveness at a time followed by state of progress of Tabanan regency. spurring growth in the processing sector These figures give an indication that and the downstream sector of another there is a movement toward a balance that spurred the growth of business in the structure of the Balinese sector in both the secondary and economy, followed by the same tertiary. The role of the tertiary sector is conditions in Tabanan. This is evident high relative to the GDP formation from the structure of the economy of the Tabanan, exceeding the primary sector.

Table 2 Growth Rate Tabanan Regency GRDP at Current Market Prices, Period 2009-2013 (%)

Field of Work 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Agriculture 7,54 8,57 5,03 7,57 6,01 Mining/Excavation 9,53 10,63 11,94 16,25 -6,12 Industry 10,09 13,88 7,16 12,45 -0,25 Electricity and drinking water 23,08 16,40 14,23 13,92 1,06 Buildings 13,40 12,93 12,55 13,60 6,67 Trade, hotels and restaurants 16,57 13,68 12,14 12,91 -0,89 Transportation and communication 14,33 10,65 8,31 11,68 -1,77 Banks and other financial institutions 9,07 12,56 8,53 9,07 8,27 Services 14,24 13,82 13,67 9,93 16,84 Gross Regional Domestic Product 11,90 11,80 22,34 10,39 5,69 (PDRB) Source: Statistics Central Bureau (Badan Pusat Statistik) of Tabanan Regency (2014)

Definition of Development Structuring of regional Conventional development theory development should be planned in the (pure economics) or later known as the management of local development. theory of modernization basically Wrihatnolo (2009) explained that the explained that the progress or management of regional development is backwardness is measured by how high a pattern layout of the formulation, economic growth (Hudiyanto, 2008). execution, control implementation, This growth strategy is focused on the monitoring and evaluation of post- construction industry on a large scale so program policy and program that better play the role of the development in the long term, government as self-employed intermediate, and annual operational. (entrepreneurs) rather than as a service Management of regional development provider (service provider). must be integrated between the top- Development can also be down approach with a bottom-up interpreted as the transformation of the approach, which is often referred to as a economic, social, and cultural model approach to synthesis. deliberately through policies and Model synthesis is a mix between a strategies towards the desired direction. top down and bottom up approach. The The transformation of the economic model is a synthesis of the existing structure seen through increased problems in the implementation of production or rapid growth in industry policies that emerge from each and services, so that a very large approach. That is, the synthesis model contribution to the national income. approach will minimize the occurrence Social transformations seen through the of failures in the implementation of distribution of prosperity through public policy. Model top down approach equitable access to socio-economic outlined that strategy formulation resources. Cultural transformation is pembagnunan united and coordinated associated with the national spirit and the supreme leader and lowered in nationalism, in addition to the changes level/lower level. This strategy was in values and norms in society (Nurman, comprehensive. The advantages of this 2016). model is the ability to integrate sectoral and regional development, while the Structuring of Regional Development weakness of this approach is sometimes difficult to apply to the local

5 development linked to reference local been instrumental in the establishment development planning vary with regard of tourist villages and improvement of to the unique geographical conditions, the environment that has been socio-cultural, and economic. Approach threatened because of social capital as from bottom to top (bottom up) outlined well as the driver of the carrying that the development strategy initiatives capacity of an area. from various units are delivered from the Ecotourism can also succeed if lower level to the upper level local communities have some measure (Wrihatnolo, 2008). These approaches of control over them and if they require further investigation macro equitably the benefits arising from the studies are then incorporated into the ecotourism activities (Scheyvens 2009). matrix of strengths, needs and An empowerment framework is scenarios, so that in the end can be proposed as a suitable mechanism for structured format required by the the analysis of the social, economic, development community. psychological, political and ecotourism in the local communities in achieving The concept of Sustainable Tourism sustainable development. Countryside The cases above can be Terluin research results (2003) on formulated that efforts sustainable rural the development of rural areas in the tourism development will involve several EU, explained that one of the successes things, such as: the local community, of sustainable development must the development of rural tourism product involve increased capacity (knowledge, quality, and coaching a group of local skills, and attitudes) local actors to build businessmen. The principle of and sustain development in the region. sustainable development of rural This capacity is related to the rate at tourism is one of alternative tourism which the actors deal with the situation product and arrangement of space to and their prospects in the context of provide impetus for sustainable rural national and international wider. development and has management Jones (2005) explained that the principles, including: development of tourism village-based 1. Utilize local community facilities and environment (ecotourism) should infrastructure. include an element of social capital from 2. Favorable local community. the local community. Social capital has

3. Small-Scale to facilitate the (Semi Structured Interview), engineering establishment of a reciprocal group discussion focused way (Focus relationship with the local Group Discussion, FGD), and Rapid community. District Appraisal (RDA) or translated as 4. Involving the local community. assessments / studies / research, 5. Applying the rural tourism product participatory local circumstances. development. Rapid Appraisal District (RDA) is a process of assessment of the situation, RESEARCH METHOD problems and needs related areas of The study was conducted in public services by using a set of Tabanan for six months. This study uses techniques and tools (tools) ratings. a macro approach. Macro study RDA encourage community involvement approach is a scientific method that and stakeholder (stakeholders) improve combines rational method that is based the capacity to analyze their situation on on the results of previous studies by the the life and conditions, to be able to plan authorities with the empirical method and act independently. Specifically RDA that utilizes survey techniques. This aims: (1) identify the characteristic macro studies generally aims to prepare patterns of the carrying capacity of the an integrated development plan region to the growth and changes in the (integrated) for districts / municipalities. community and the region in an The specific objectives of the macro integrated manner; (2) map the social, study approach are: (1) identify and economic, ecological, cultural, and analyze the strengths, and the limiting security in the region; (3) identify the factor as well as the needs of the district social conditions that lead to inequality and (2) recommend programs that between groups or between people need to realize sustainable stakeholders; (4) provide the information development. needed to formulate management Search macro study data was strategies and conflict prevention and obtained through primary and secondary peace building to the next in an data. Secondary data were obtained integrated manner; and (5) determine from searches of various agencies, the main problems and critical issues while the primary data obtained using that need to be managed through a the methods of Participatory Rural variety of sectoral development program Appraisal (PRA), interview techniques is indicative (Sumpeno, 2006) .. RDA

7 includes four main stages as follows: (1) utilization), generated information and The first stage (screening, or a study materials are packaged in the descriptive analysis of the area) refers in form of statements of work, drawings, some regional analysis methods and diagrams focused, the results of the techniques of descriptive using study. This report can be a profile of the secondary data, then formulated in a area in the form of reports and problems preliminary assessment of the state of faced conditions that will be key in the (existing) regional development. The process and substance of the planning main output of this phase in the form of (Laderach et al., 2007). mapping or scanned overall conditions Model structuring the development and specific data that is relevant, ie an of tourism villages analyzed by dynamic overview of social, economic, ecological system. Dynamic system is a and institutional; (2) The second stage representation of the behavior of a (scoping, or assessment of the main system which has a relationship issues quickly) based screening results interpedensi and changes with time. It in the first phase by using a qualitative can be said that it is a dynamic system approach to the community and its feedback (feedback structure) are representatives can learn to understand interrelated and toward equilibrium causality (cause and effect) that occurs (Sterman et al., 2007). in the current situation. The main output According Daalen and Thissen of this phase in the form of identification (2001), validating the modeling of of critical issues facing the region dynamic systems can be done in require immediate settlement in local several ways include test structures development plans and sectoral directly (direct structure test) without programs within the government; (3) operate (running) model, the structural The third stage (focus, or participatory test model of behavior (structure- assessment) is a continuation of the oriented behavior tests) to operate the search process problems that have model and comparing the behavior of been carried out at the community level the model with real systems through field research by the PRA, are (quantitative behavior pattern further identified by a different process comparison). Validation used in this to be analyzed in a broader level study is the AME (Mean Absolute Error) (district/city); (4) The fourth phase and AVE (Variation Absolute Error). (interpretation of finding and further AME is a deviation (difference) between

8 the average value (mean) results of a 1. The potential of natural simulation of the actual value. AVE is a resources Tabanan regency has the deviation value variation (variance) of potential of forests, water resources, the actual simulation. Limits acceptable agriculture (agro and barns Bali deviation is between 1-10 percent. Province), all of which are the basis of tourism development. AME = [(Si - Ai) / Ai ] Si = Si N, S = simulation value 2. The potential of human Ai = Ai N, A = actual value resources: more than 70 percent of the N = observation time interval productive age and 56.46 per cent of the AVE = [(Ss - Sa) / Sa ] Ss = [( Si - Si)2 N ] = simulation value district population working in agriculture. deviation 3. The potential of traditional village Sa = [(Ai - Ai)2 N] = actual value deviation institutions, Subak and Village Credit

Institutions (LPD) is an institutional DISCUSSION collaboration move development in Potential analysis agriculture, tourism, and other sectors. The potential of the development of To identify potentially the most natural resources and the environment influence on the development of in Tabanan can be grouped into three potential matrix is used as shown in categories, namely: Table 3. Table 3 Matrix of Potential Analysis Number Basic potential Derived potential A B C D E F G 1 Forest * 2 Water resources * 3 Granary * 4 More than 70 percent of productive * * age 5 More than 50 percent of agricultural * * workforce 6 Subak * * * * * * 7 Indigenous villages * * * * 8 Village Credit Institutions (LPD) * * * * 9 Natural tourism * 10 tour history * 11 Agrowisata * * * * 12 Ecotourism * * * * * 13 Mutual cooperation and Tri Hita * * Karana Source: Results Analysis (2015)

Information: A Tourism industry B Services C Trade D Conservation of natural resources E Development of the reserves (for ground water reserves) F Development of human resources G Planning bottom up * Linkage between basic potential with a potential derived

There is no linkage between basic potential with a potential derived

Based on Table 3 shows that the issues; (3) economic problems; (4) potential support development in social and cultural issues; (5) the Tabanan regency is institutional area of infrastructure problems. Subak and ecotourism. Tabanan is Based on Table 4 shows that an area that 70 percent are in rural the problems that arise due to the areas, where as regencies in Bali non- integrated planning (score = that provides food stocks. This district 11). From the aspect of regional is known as the "granary" has the development planning, planning is potential also in the tourism sector, often only see the views of the especially in the development of parties, namely from the central tourism villages. government planners / area that is less sharp know the circumstances Problem analysis of a region, especially rural areas. The problems in Tabanan Bias happens mainly due to the analyzed through three approaches, differences in interests and goals namely through in-depth interviews diiinginkan community area with what with policy makers in local is thought by the central government/ government (District Development regions. Planning at the central Planning Agency and related government level/area that is outside agencies), the subject of the area and was not directly development (farmers, traders, involved with activities that lead to members of Subak) and through interaction between the public area direct observation. Such problems with the natural environment, tend to are divided into five groups, namely: have interests and goals that are (1) the problem of development inconsistent with the actual administration; (2) environmental development objectives.

Table 4 Matrix of Issues in Tabanan

Number Issue--> consequence 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Total Issue--> cause Consequence Village 1 expansion * * 2 2 Vigilantes * * * * * * * * 8 Without legal authority Declining in 3 forest area * * * * 4 Rather critical of 4 protected forest * * * * 4 Not applied 5 border * * * 3 coast and border gap Highland agricultural 6 conversion * * * * * * 6

Encroachment into high 7 protected areas * * * * 4

Lack of agricultural 8 added value * * * * 4

Lack of labor in agriculture 9 sector * * * 3

Endangerment 10 sacred area and * * 2 Holy place

Endangerment of Balinese land 11 ownership * * * 3

Disproportionate of High School 12 buildings * * 2 Increasing of 13 poverty * * * 3 The breakage of 14 road facility * * 2 Lack of water 15 and electricity * * * * 4 Limited of development 16 budget * 1 Disintegrated 17 planning * * * * * * * * * * * 11 Cause Total 1 8 5 5 2 6 5 1 2 3 4 0 2 0 3 3 16 66 Source: Analysis Results (2015) Note: * Existence of causal link ; No existence of causal link

Needs analysis discussing the meaning of Analysis of needs (need development, often takes place analysis) is also used to identify mixing sense with the meaning of problems, needs, potentials of others. For example, modernization several different groups within a of the means of social change region. These groups include: the where the economic component in farmer, the productive age development is a misnomer when population,small-scale entrepreneurs used to express the comprehensive at the village level, middlemen development. (particularly for agricultural products), Institutional strengthening is investors, local governments, water done by creating local regulations control system, and indigenous on spatial planning for tourism villages. The needs analysis can be villages based on agriculture. Local seen in Table 5. institutions in every village are directly involved in spatial planning Alternative Development Goals and evaluation of the layout itself. Of and Strategies Findings of the development can course, the local regulations must not be done only through a limited also be strengthened with awig awig discipline, even now economic incorporated under the laws development was no longer governing the details of buying and monopolized by economists. In selling of agricultural land.

Tabel 5 Needs Analysis

Group Issue Need Potency Farmer 1. The price of production 1. The warranty price for agricultural 1. Labor force in facilities is still high products agricultural sector

2. Limited agricultural land 2. Wages of farm workers increased 2. Have an entrepreneurial spirit 3. Limited capital 3. Technology / capital / credit aid from the 3. The response to government and private sector innovation and technology adoption 4. Limited processing of 4. Regulation and awig awig that restrict the 4. Participate as a subject agricultural products sale and purchase of agricultural land in the development program 5. Tax relief of paddy field ownership

Productive 1. High school buildings are 1. High school buildings are evenly 1. High population of age not evenly distributed to each distributed to each district productive age in Tabanan population district 2. The availability of educational skills through qualified courses

Small-scale 1. Limited capital for export- 1. Memerlukan bantuan modal dan pinjaman 1. Having a strong entrepreneurs oriented dari pihak pemerintah dan swasta motivations and entrepreneurial spirit 2. Limitations of 2. Requirment of entrepreneurial skills entrepreneurial skills exercises from local government development from local government Broker 1. Price and seasonal 1. Products availability requirements 1 Having marketing fluctuation of agricultural channels and credit products is unpredictable services from village credit institutions Tourism 1. Limited investment 1. Infrastructure Improvement 1. Strong financial investor opportunities due to limited investors infrastructure in rural area 2. Provide ideas and new technologies Local Financial limited Financial management administered by the Planning from the rural government local government level to the provincial level Lack of qualified human Improving the quality of human resources Have attendants and resources escorts from rural area Miscoordination with the center Financial assistance from the center and external parties Cooperation with local institutions Subak 1. Authority in spatial land use 1. Directly involved and have the same 1. Gotong royong tinggi is very small authority in structuring 2. The limited number of 2. Formed new subak in areas with no Subak 2. Legal awig-awig members because of the switch to the non-agricultural sector 3. Limited funds 3. Funds aid from local government 3. Based on Tri Hita Karana philosophy 4. The involvement of the great 4. Great Sedahan routinely conduct training sedahan is very small in to Subak fostering Subak 5. Decreasing of agricultural 5. Awig awig governing the transaction of land agricultural land Indigenous 1. It's hard to foster 1. Their special training from local 1. Incorporated Awig awig villages communities drifting certain governments to the community in traditional village political elite 2. Setting the boundaries of 2. Boundaries between indigenous villages is 2. Based on Tri Hita the traditional village with other clearly established through a legal entity Kraana Philosophy indigenous villages somewhat ambiguous Source: Analysis Results (2015)

Table 6 Matrix of Alternative Development Program

Program Criteria A B C D E F Bt N Jml Bt N Jml Bt N Jml Bt N Jml Bt N Jml Bt N Jml Increased 15 3 45 5 1 5 15 2 30 10 1 10 10 2 20 5 1 5 productivity Carrying 15 3 45 5 1 5 25 3 75 5 1 5 5 1 5 5 1 5 capacity of land and water Rural 25 3 75 15 2 30 10 1 10 25 3 75 25 3 75 20 3 60 economic activities Increased 5 1 5 15 2 30 10 1 10 10 1 10 10 1 10 10 2 20 non- government al organization Job creation 20 3 60 10 1 10 10 1 10 20 2 40 20 3 60 30 3 90 Relations 5 1 5 15 2 30 10 1 10 10 3 30 10 1 10 5 1 5 between villages Village 10 2 20 10 1 10 10 1 10 10 1 10 15 1 15 5 2 10 revenue Community 5 1 5 25 3 75 10 1 10 10 1 10 5 1 5 20 2 40 revenue Number of 10 1 26 10 1 20 10 1 16 10 1 19 10 1 20 10 1 23 program 0 6 0 0 3 5 0 1 5 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 5 5 level Program I III VI V IV II level Source: Analysis Results (2015) Note: A. The program of sustainable tourism villages toward sustainable agricultural development B. Program to improve the quality of human resources C. The environmental conservation program D. Physical infrastructure development program ' E. Rural industrialization (agro-processing and tourism) program F. The program to strengthen local institutions Bt = weight N = value Tot = total (weight x value)

Development Scenario events in logic to show how the present Setting priorities is not sufficiently situation and the situation to be dating can taken into account the program for the develop gradually. In this analysis is short term, but also accounted for the long divided into two, namely the status quo term, given the benefits and impact of the scenario and normative scenarios. The development will usually look at the long assumptions used for the status quo term. For that conditions that would come scenario are: (a) rural industrialization is to be analyzed with scenario analysis not affected by social or environmental (Polk, 2010). issues and (b) the average economic Scenario analysis is a technique of growth of 10 percent. Assumptions on the planning that make up the sequence of normative scenario are: (a) sustainable

14 development; (B) high community Models of Sustainable Tourism participation; (C) decentralization; (D) the Village in Tabanan In alternative matrix program, development of environmentally sound sustainable tourism villages on and efficient use of natural resources; and sustainable agricultural development is (e) growth evenly (Sumpeno, 2006). The results of the scenario analysis a number one priority. Awirya (2011) is the next step in making rural explained that the sectors with development policy. The rural relatively large contribution to the development policy is the framework of economy has higher degree of the development program format. efficiency. The sectors are agriculture and tourism in Bali. This condition is Development Program Format equally common for Tabanan The concept of integrated rural Regency, where both sectors support development should include two aspects, each other so that the tourism villages namely the integration of the functional can be realized. Models of sustainable and spatial coherence is. The integration is tourism villages were analyzed by the functionally an integration of all social and economic activities that affect the social life dynamic model that can be seen in of the population, education, agriculture, Figure 1. industry and all aspects of community life. Development activities should be concerned with the use of changes in the relationships between sectors in addition to the classic pursuit of the goal, which is the target.

Within the scope of these, an integrated rural development strategy must be directed and addressed together. The approach used for the development of districts / municipalities (especially rural) is an approach that is spatial, multi-sectoral and integrated, paritisipatif, and sustainable, which is implemented through the format development.

Tabel 7 Analysis Scenario

Number Perspective Scenario I (Status Quo) Scenario II (Normative Scenario) 1 Agriculture 1. Reduced forest area 1. The forest area is maintained 2. Encroachment protection forests still occurs 2. Spatial and Detailed Spatial Plan to 3. The transformation of agricultural land occurs guide the protection of forests and every year agricultural land use 4. The labor force in the agricultural sector began 3. Providing incentives for farmers to to decrease not switch to non-agricultural sector 5. Factor input still be the deciding factor to 4. Bylaw details the use of the area of increase production and productivity of the cultivation (agriculture) including the land sale and purchase of agricultural land 6. Guarantee for agricultural commodity prices 5. The government guarantees the have not been realized availability of input factors for farmers 7. Processing of agricultural products to realize 6. The government guarantees the price the added value is still limited of agricultural commodities 7. Horticulture and plantations intensively developed 8. Imported agricultural products are prohibited entry 9. Diversification of agricultural products can add value 2 Processing 1. Agro-processing industry scale is small 1. Agro-processing industry has industry of 2. More than 30 percent of the workforce in the expanded its value agricultural and tourism sector comes from the agricultural 2. Incentives for farmers to not switch to tourism products sector non-agricultural sector 3. The increasing of additional tourism area 3. The workforce in the tourism sector without mature planning comes from local villagersat their 4. Investment in tourism sector is increasing productive age 5. Travelers like nature 4. Local regulations should set a maximum limit to tourism area 5. Ecotourism also become an alternative options for tourist 6. Planning of the agricultural and the tourism sector should be mutually supportive without making a loss to each other 3 Environment 1. Encroachment persists 1. Strengthened the customary rights of 2. Water reserves are limited to the agricultural forest dwellers through a legal entity sector and the tourism sector and sanctions against illegal forest 3. Coastal erosion is resolved encroachment 2. Created more detailed rules regarding the use of water for agriculture and other sectors 3. Excavated other water sources 4 Human 1. Poor population is higher compared to other 1. Poverty must be reduced by creating resources districts in Bali jobs 2. Human resources at the village level is still 2. Conducted skills training and limited in quality entrepreneurship at the village level 3. Skills-building for human resources in the village are limited 5 Physical 1. High School facilities are not evenly distributed 1. Built high school buildings in every infrastucture in every district district 2. Damaged roads are persists 2. Good road access and can be 3. Water service facilities are sometimes reached to all villages unavailable for all villages need 3. Built shelters for more adequate water 6 Local institutions 1. Institutional Subak exist and potential for 1. All awig awig written and incorporated social and economic activities 2. Institutional local (Subak and 2. Traditional village institutions are able to indigenous villages) as subjects in mobilize society participation spatial planning and evaluation 3. Tri Hita Karana philosophy is inherent in people's lives Source: Result Analysis (2015)

Tabel 8 Program Format

Program Project Description Goals Target Expected Period Responsible Benefit authority Agriculture 1. Development of 1. Increase the Farmers Farmers were 5 years The integrated sensitivity and able to be the department agricultural the ability of subject of of community farmers to agricultural agriculture, 2. The development diversify food policy makers the financial of facilities and 2. Increase institutions infrastructure productivity that provide resources 3. Fixing the level credit to 3. Agricultural of wages in the farmers development agricultural 4. Management of sector water resources 4. Enhancing the 5. Development of role and access horticulture and to credit for plantation farmers 6. Provision of soft 5. Lifting the loans by SMEs selling power of farmers supported by a policy option for the farmers Human 1. Development of 1. Cultivate the Productive Improving the 5 years Department resources general spirit of age quality and of education development secondary entrepreneurshi population skills of the and education p workforce employment facilities 2. Improve agencies 2. Management productivity and training and quality of labor improvement of labor skills Environmental 1. Preservation of 1. Controlling Surrounding Being able to 10 The conservation protected forest illegal logging communities control the years department 2. Food reserve 2. Replenishing degradation of forest the groundwater and able to agriculture, development 3. Minimize land manage it into the forestry 3. Management of degradation and productive land department, water resources conversion BPS, and land Bappeda management Development 1. The construction 1. Improving Farmers The increasing 5 years The of rural market in each agricultural of farmers’ department industrialization village activity income of 2. Development 2. Mobilize agriculture, centers of financial department agricultural resources of trade products 3. Improving (koperasi) 3. The provision of cooperation soft loans for among villages small industrial entrepreneurs Strengthen the 1. Subak 1. Improving the Subak dan Strengthening 5 years Great institutional development as strong role of indigenous the role of sedahan, development an economic Subak and village Subak and the institution on a indigenous indigenous Indigenous competitive basis villages villages in Board of 2. Improved security 2. Integrating managing land Trustee of the region to development and region by strengthen the planning providing presence of the limited traditional village authority of 3. Structuring awig awig space-based sustainable tourism villages by involving Subak, Pakraman Source: Analysis Results (2015)

SUB MODEL FISIK SUB MODEL EKONOMI

Luas_Lahan Pajak_Lahan_ FSNJ F_Landrent_Sawah Permukiman FSar Sawah

LandRent_Sawah Nilai_Jual_Lahan _Sawah Bangunan_Lain Rasio_Lahan_ Terbangun Sarana LPD

Per_LR Produktivitas_ F_KS Sawah Penduduk Produksi_Sawah

Kawasan_Suci F_LS Total_Pengunaan L_KS Wisatawan _Lahan PDRB

Sawah F_RTH Debit FWis L_LS

Aksesibilitas_ jalan_ RTH FPDRB F_Penggunanaan F_Penggunanaan ke_ sawah _Lahan L_RTH _Lahan Bantuan_ Lahan_yang_dapat Pemerintah _Digunakan FPend_Masy Luas_Lahan Sarana_Pendidikan Luas_LahanBangunan_Lain Permukiman L_BL L_Permukiman F_BL FSarPddk Air_Larian F_LP Fraksi_Konsumsi LAL Pendapatan_ _Air Konsumsi_Air Masyarakat FLP_Pend FAL TK_Pariwisata

SUB MODEL SOSIAL DAN KELEMBAGAAN

Penduduk Kelahiran Kematian TED_Subak FTPddk A_Kem TK_Pertanian A_Kel FTE_Subak FTKPt FAK Angkatan_Kerja Pertumbuhan_ FTKPr TE_Desa TK_Pertanian TK_Pariwisata Tingkat_Pendidikan FTED FAP Penduduk_Miskin Pengangguran FPM

Angkatan_Kerja Pertumbuhan_TK Sarana_dan_ TED_Pakraman FTE_Pakraman _Pariwisata Prasarana_ Pariwisata

Figure 1. Models of Sustainable Tourism Village Development Planning in Tabanan Source: Analysis Results (2016)

Model of structuring rural areas into number of unemployed, the number of sustainable tourism composed by three poor, the level of institutional sub-systems are interconnected, ie sub- effectiveness). This model shows that physical systems (wide rice field, road well-organized tourism villages in a accessibility to the fields, the land area of sustainable manner can be realized if all green open space, land settlements, sub systems (physical, economic, social extensive sacred area, building area of and institutional) were studied another) and water , sub-economic simultaneously and the related (not system (land rent, the number of LPD, the spatially) and incorporating elements of GDP, government aid, the amount of rice local institutions as a planner and production, income levels), sub-systems evaluator of development programs in an of social and institutional (total population, territory. the number of workers in agriculture and Model structuring the development of tourism, infrastructure and tourism sustainable tourism villages have in the infrastructure, education levels , the system dynamic model formulation. The

18 formulation is as follows: Tourism_workforce_fraction g. Education_level=Education_facilities/ 1. Physical sub-system Education_level_fraction a. Land_area = Land area in Tabanan = h. Unemployed=(Work_force*Unemployed 83.933 Ha _number_fraction)/Education_level b. Paddy_field_area= 22.465 Ha i. Poor_population=Poor_population_fracti c Settelment_area = 6.047 Ha on*unemployed d. RTH_area = 12.582 Ha j. Subak_level_of_effectiveness=Agricultu e. Sacred_area = 4.603 Ha ral_workforce_fraction* e. Other_building_area = 18.440 Ha Subak_level_of_effectiveness_frction*W f. Total_of_land_use = ork_force Paddy_field_area+Settelment_area+RT k. Pakraman_level_of_effectiveness=Touri H_area+ sm_workforce_growth* Sacred_area+Other_building_area Pakraman_level_of_effectiveness_frac g. Land_that_can_be_used = tion*Work_force Land_area-Total_of_lnd_use l. Village_effectiveness_level=Pakraman h. Land_use_fraction _level_of_efectiveness*Village_effectiv Land_that_can_be_used/land_area eness_level_fraction i. Built_land_ratio =

(Other_building_area+Sacred_area Overall, the arrangement of rural tourism +Settlement_area)/ Land_area development in the region, especially 2. Economy sub-system those that have views of the fields should a. Land_rent_growth= Paddy_field_area/Settlement_area appeal must be able to reduce the rate of b. Paddy_field_rent_land= wetland conversion through local F_paddyfield_landrent*Built_land_ratio c. Village credit = 273 units institutional role of the local. The decline d. Tourism_supporting_facilities= in the rate of land conversion in the end Supporting_facilities_fraction*Village credit be able to maintain the sustainability of e. Total_of_tourist= the local area and maintain the stability of Paddyfield_area*Tourists_fraction*Supp orting_facilities food. f. PDRB( GRDP)

(Tourist/Land_rent_growth)* CONCLUSIONS AND (Population/income)* RECOMENDATIONS GRDP_Fraction_Growth g. Education_facilities= Conclusion GDRP/Education_facilities_fraction h. Community_income= Based on the results of these (Tourism_workforce+agriculture_workfo discussions can be concluded several rce)*Community_income_fraction things, namely: 3. Social and institutional sub-systems 1. Study the macro is one analysis tools a. Population = total population in Tabanan = 421.843 people integrated development planning b. Birth=Total_population*Birth_number (integrated) for districts. c. Death=Total_population*Death_number d. Work_force=Birth*Workforce_fraction 2. Study macro analyze the existing e. Agricultural_workforce=Work_force* situation, identify problems and needs Agricultural_workforce_fraction f. Tourism_workforce=Work_force* of each sector, identifying and

analyzing potential and limiting factors The suggestions can be put forward in this in the district, and ultimately can paper is as follows: provide recommendations on 1. In the area of planning, implementation programs that people need to realize of integrated development (integration sustainable development. of sectoral and regional approaches) 3. Tabanan regency is a tourism-based should include four aspects: the agriculture that 70 percent of the rural delineation of the area, determination areas so that the potential developed strategies for development, project tend to come from the agricultural recommendations, and the sector and the tourism sector. participation of local institutions. 4. Matrix problems, potentials, and 2. The local government should include matrix needs a basic framework in local institutional role as the subject of making the regional development development planners and evaluation program format. Programs of this will arrangement that can reduce the then be used as a base setting and occurrence of resource exploitation control of natural resources (forests, (forests, land, water). land, water) in a region so that the 3. Analysis of macro studies can be development of sustainable tourism further elaborated through the analysis villages toward sustainable of micro studies can later be known agricultural development can be linkages between determinant planned more mature. variables structuring the development 5. Priorities in Tabanan program aimed of a region. at rural development programs REFERENCE sustainable tourism in sustainable Awirya, Agni A. (2011). Pengembangan agriculture. Sektor Utama Regional, 6. Model structuring sustainable Pendekatan Efisiensi Teknikal dan Siklus Bisnis. Studi Kasus di development of tourism villages can Propinsi Bali. Jurnal JEJAK, 14(1), be described through a dynamic 43-53. Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan system, in which the three sub- Daerah (Bappeda) Kabupaten systems (physical, economic, social Tabanan. (2014). Materi Teknis RTRW Kabupaten Tabanan Tahun and institutional) were studied 2011-2031. Tabanan, Propinsi Bali. simultaneously and interlinked with Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Tabanan. (2014). Tabanan dalam each other. Angka 2013. Tabanan, Propinsi Bali. Dinas Pertanian Tanaman Pangan Recommendation Kabupaten Tabanan. (2014).

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