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Disclaimer This document is issued by The Beijing Axis. While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this China: Building a long-term presence in document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or omissions of fact or for any opinions expressed herein. Opinions, projections and estimates are subject to change without notice. This document is for African iron ore information purposes only, and solely for private circulation. The information contained here has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information is correct and that the views are accurate, The Beijing Axis cannot be held responsible for any loss, irrespective of how it may arise. In addition, this document does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or to adopt any investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements or events in any form. Some investments discussed here may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance; the value, price or income from www.thebeijingaxis.com investments may fall as well as rise. The Beijing Axis, and/or a connected company may have a position in any of the investments mentioned in this document. All concerned are advised to form their own independent judgement with respect to any matter contained in this document. AFRICAN MINING CONGRESS Dirk Kotze Johannesburg, 17 July 2012 Director & General Manager Africa The Beijing Axis The Beijing Axis 1 Agenda Beijing Axis Beijing Axis Beijing Axis Beijing Axis Commodities Capital Procurement Strategy 1. Setting the stage: China’s voracious demand for resources • Commodity Marketing • Transaction Origination • Comprehensive • Strategy Formulation • Commodity Procurement • Corporate Finance Procurement Solutions • Strategy Implementation Advisory 2. China’s engagement of African resources, with specific reference to iron ore The Beijing Axis’ Knowledge & Network Synergies 3. A hard/soft landing for China, with reference to demand for iron ore Founded in 2002; has successfully worked with many international and Chinese MNCs Operates in four synergistic cross-border China businesses Provides services across various sectors, with a core focus on the MINING, RESOURCES, INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING and OTHER SERVICES sectors Provides solutions to international firms as they act in unfamiliar territory in China/Asia Provides solutions to Chinese/Asian firms as they venture out and ‘go global’ The Beijing Axis 2 TheThe Beijing Beijing Axis Axis 3 China has dramatically increased its share of world consumption of key metals The mineral sector plays a key role in the Asia-Pacific economies. While and minerals over the past two decades. The drivers of this trend remain intact China’s mining industry only accounts for 6% of its GDP, it is the world's largest in absolute terms China’s Share of Global GDP and Consumption of Selected Commodities (% 1990, 2000, 2010) GDP and Mining Industry as a % of GDP of Top Mining Countries (USD bn, %, 2011) USD bn 15,065 6,988 4,000 25% GDP Primary Aluminium Steel Coal GDP (lhs) ROW China ROW China ROW China ROW China China has the world’s largest 100% 100% 100% 100% Mining as a % of GDP (rhs) mining sector with an overall 20% 3,000 mining industry value of USD Mining Industry Value (USD bn) 419 bn (2011) 50% 50% 50% 50% 47% Mineral sector contributes 15% 10% 41% 45% 7% 2% 4% 4% 17% 14% 18% 22% approx. 20% to Chile's GDP 0% 0% 0% 0% 2,000 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 10% 49 Refined Nickel Chrome Ore Refined Copper Refined Zinc ROW* China ROW China ROW China ROW China 29 1,000 100% 100% 100% 100% 92 20 13 5% 158 38 419 106 50% 50% 50% 50% 53 11 301 50 37 4 0 0% 32% 33% 38% 41% 4% 20% 4% 13% 13% 17% 12% 8% USA 0% 0% 0% 0% Peru China India Chile 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Brazil Canada Russia Vietnam Thailand Australia Indonesia S. Africa Kazakhstan *Note: ROW stands for Rest of World Philippines Source: World Bank; CNBS; CEIC; The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 4 Source: Research and Markets; IMF; The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 5 Mining companies from Asia are progressively gaining global market share and catching up with their foreign counterparts 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Top 30 Mining Companies by Revenue (USD bn, 2000-2011) 2000 2011 BHP Billiton BHP Billiton Anglo American Rio Tinto Alcan Vale SA Rio Tinto Anglo American Pechiney Xstrata Noranda Inc China Shenhua Energy Norilsk Nickel Jizhong Energy(2) Phelps Dodge Freeport-McMoRan Vale SA Jiangxi Copper Chinese Company Codelco Norilsk Nickel(2) Coal India Barrick Gold IMC Global China Coal Energy MIM Holdings The Mosaic Company Inco Ltd. Newmont Mining Peabody Energy Coal India Potash… 35.1 Grupo Mexico S.A. Freeport McMoRan Potash Corp. Grupo Mexico S.A. Falconbridge Ltd. Yanzhou Coal Mining Cameco Corp. Codelco Newmont Mining Peabody Energy AngloGold Ltd. Industrias Penoles Placer Dome Inc. ENRC(2) Barrick Gold Corp. AngloGold Ashanti Cominco Ltd. Antofagasta Teck Corp Consol Energy Gold Fields Ltd Fortescue Metals USD1bn CAEMI* Gold Corp Xstrata Gold Fields Ltd. Ashanti Goldfields Newcrest Mining 0 5 10 15 20 0 1020304050607080 *Note: (1) CAEMI was acquired by Vale in 2006; Companies marked in red are BRICS-based companies (2) 2010 Revenue Source: Fortune 500; Various; The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 6 Agenda 1. Setting the stage: China’s voracious demand for resources China’s imports of selected commodities from Africa (USD bn, 1995-2008) China’s imports from Africa as a % of total imports 100% 2. China’s engagement of African resources, with specific reference to iron ore - High growth rate Cobalt - High quantity 80% 3. A hard/soft landing for China, with reference to demand for iron ore 60% - High growth rate Manganese Crude Oil - Low quantity 40% Chromium Platinum Ferroalloys 20% Tobacco Diamonds Petroleum Gases Wood Iron Ore Steel Nickel Cotton Copper Electronics 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% CAGR 1995-2008 Note: Bubble size is based on the commodity’s share of China total commodity imports from Africa in 2008 TheThe Beijing Beijing Axis Axis 8 Source: UN Statistical Database; The Beijing Axis Analysis W. Sahara Share of all contract revenue in Africa (2009) Breakdown of China’s international contract Mijek & Sfariat revenue (2009) South America 2.7% Middle East All Others 16.6% Guelb el Aouj 25% Laiwu I&S North America Off-take agreement China 0.4% 37% Asia 36.0% Askaf El Agareb MCC via Sin-Tang Mauritania 23.2% Financing & Off-take Turkey 5% Kedia d’Idjil 23.2% USA Lebtheinia 8% Africa Europe 41.1% Senegal France Italy 3.2% Tazadit Faleme 10% 15% Minmetals CMIEC Close to infrastructure that Mining license 1.5GW power plant exists or could be rehabilitated Source: ENR; The Beijing Axis Analysis Source: RBC, Company Reports, Reuters, The Beijing Axis Analysis Far from infrastructure Tonkolili Kalia CCCC – EPCM Contractor CIF - Funding, 100% off-take SISG – Off-take CREC - Feasibility study CRM – Related infrastructure CCCC - Feasibility study Topa Simandou Mt Avima Chalco Guinea Possibly Baosteel Nkout CAR CRCC Related rail Cameroon Mbalam Belinga Simandou 1-2 & South Sichuan Hanlong Group CMEC Equity stake S. Leone Cote d’Ivoire Construction CHEC, CRCC-CAC Mt Nimba Guinea Marampa & off-take Rail feasibility study MCC, SISG Liberia Mt Nimba Liberia EXIM Bank Financing Nabeba Acquisition Mt Nimba Cote d’Ivoire Gabon Congo-B CHEC, CRCC-CAC Deepwater port, rail Kango & rolling stock Western Cluster Bong Close to infrastructure that Close to infrastructure that Shougang Steel Mt Ginka China Union Putu exists or could be rehabilitated Zanaga exists or could be rehabilitated CDB Mayoko Source: RBC, Company Reports, Reuters, The Beijing Axis Analysis Far from infrastructure Source: RBC, Company Reports, Reuters, The Beijing Axis Analysis Far from infrastructure Agenda There is an on-going debate regarding China’s slowing growth – mainly fuelled by the knock-on effect of the ongoing European debt crisis as well as the potential property bubble burst Representative quotes 1. Setting the stage: China’s voracious demand for resources “China is in a hard landing. Car sales are “China’s economy is headed for a ‘hard down, cement production is down, steel 2. China’s engagement of African resources, with specific reference to iron ore landing’ this year as weaker demand production is down, construction stocks are overseas chokes off exports.” - Gary down. It’s not a debate anymore, it’s a fact” - Shilling, Financial Analyst and commentator Adrian Mowat, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief 3. A hard/soft landing for China, with reference to demand for iron ore for WSJ, Forbes, and The New York Times Asian and emerging-market strategist. “If China doesn’t change course, and in a big way, “Now the bubble is visibly bursting. How much the country will experience an economic crisis…. damage will it do to the Chinese economy — and China is running out of time to fix the problems of its the world?” – Paul Krugman, American Economist, economy” – Michael Schuman, Asia business op-ed columnist for The New York Times. correspondent for TIME Magazine TheThe Beijing Beijing Axis Axis 1414 Source: Various; The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 15 China is still in its early stages of commodity intensity – mainly in steel, iron China’s steel consumption is poised for more moderate but sustained ore, copper, etc. growth and the base effect matters Commodity Intensity by Cycle (2011) Steel Intensity Comparison of Top 30 Economies(1) and Other Selected Asian Economies (2010) Steel Consumption Per Capita Bubble Size: GDP CAGR Consumption (USD, 2010) 1,200 (2000-2010) Intensity S.
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