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10 P.M.-1 A.M. Washington’S 8Th District in a District That Voted for Both John F

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10 P.M.-1 A.M. Washington’S 8Th District in a District That Voted for Both John F 16 2008 ELECTION PREVIEW POLITICO TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2008 TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2008 POLITICO 2008 ELECTION PREVIEW 17 10 P.M.-1 A.M. Washington’s 8th District In a district that voted for both John F. Kerry What is happening and Al Gore, GOP Rep. Dave Rei chert may At 10 p.m. Eastern, the Western California’s 4th District never have an easy re election campaign. But states begin to close their polls. At In this heavily Republican seat, if he can survive this free-spending rematch 11 p.m., California and a handful of GOP state Sen. Tom McClintock with Darcy Burner, his 2006 Democratic op- others finish voting. That late close has been burdened by criticism of ponent, he can probably survive anything. raises the prospect that the televi- his out-of-district residence and has sion networks could play a role in AP PHOTOS determining the outcome of various been on TV only sparingly in the races in those states by calling the campaign’s final weeks. His Demo- presidential winner before those in cratic opponent, retired Air Force the West are finished voting. The last officer Charlie Brown, came within state to weigh in? Alaska, where poll 3 percentage points of knocking off closing time is 1 a.m. Rep. John Doolittle in 2006. Oregon’s 5th District Republicans once had high hopes of picking up this politi- cally marginal open seat. But few think businessman Mike Erickson, who held retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley to 54 percent in 2006, can defeat state Sen. Kurt Schrader after being buffeted by so much negative publicity about his personal life. Idaho’s 1st District Nevada’s 3rd District Freshman Republican Rep. Bill Sali has jeopardized his reelec- Republican Rep. Jon C. tion prospects with a series of embarrassing antics and has Porter is the only con- failed to lock down this heavily Republican seat. Democratic Alaska’s At-Large Seat gressman the 3rd District businessman Walt Minnick now has a good chance to win, While it’s hard to imagine Alaska’s at-large has ever had. But since its even in a district that gave President Bush 69 percent in 2004. House seat being represented by anyone other creation after the 2000 Cen- than 35-year GOP veteran Rep. Don Young, sus, the seat has trended it’s even harder to imagine how he could win Democratic, and Democrats reelection. He barely won the party nomina- have added roughly 50,000 tion and has trailed Democrat Ethan Berko- new voters to the rolls since witz in the polls for months. 2006. 0 200 400 Miles IowA OREGON CALIFORNIA IdAHO HAWAII ALASKA NEVADA WASHINGtoN Electoral Votes: 7 Electoral Votes: 7 Electoral Votes: 55 Electoral Votes: 4 Electoral Votes: 4 Electoral Votes: 3 Electoral Votes: 5 Electoral Votes: 11 2007 Population: 2,988,046 2007 Population: 3,747,455 2007 Population: 36,553,215 2007 Population: 1,499,402 2007 Population: 1,283,388 2007 Population: 683,478 2007 Population: 2,565,382 2007 Population: 6,468,424 Races to Watch Demographics Races to Watch Demographics Races to Watch Demographics Races to Watch Demographics Races to Watch Demographics Demographics Republican Sen. Gordon Smith is Thanks to its gerrymandered Demographics Demographics Will Sen. Ted Stevens be In the 2nd District, Freshman Rep. Dave Reichert has a hoping voters 83.5% map, California 46.7% able to 67.6% GOP Rep. 65.2% rematch 78.9% 92.6% view him as an White isn’t typically a White hold White Dean Hel- White with White White independent 1.6% congressional 6.4% 88% 22.9% onto 3.4% ler faces 6.6% former 3.1% White White 2.1% voice who works Black election battle- Black his seat Black a rematch Black Microsoft Black Black in a bipartisan 8% ground. But 32.4% 0.4% 1.7% despite 4.1% against his 19.7% employee 7.5% Democrats are Black Black 2006 Demo- Darcy 2.8% fashion. In his Hispanic Hispanic being Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic ap campaign against Jay premack — POLITICO eyeing a host con- cratic op- Burner, Hispanic 2.9% 10.8% 7.9% 7.2% AP 3.9% 4.4% 5.4% Smith Democratic state of late-develop- Hispanic Hispanic victed ponent, Jill who came 1.2% Asian ing races that Asian Stevens Asian Derby, in Asian within 2 Asian House Speaker 0.9% 40.8% on cor- Asian Jeff Merkley, 3.9% could go their 3.7% ruption 21% the largest 4.1% points of 5% way if there Asian Asian congressio- defeating 1.3% Smith has aired advertisements Other Other 2.8% charges one week Other Other Other connecting himself to Democratic is a strong 27.5% before the election? It nal district him by Other Median Household Democratic Median Household Other Other Median Household in the na- Median Household running Median Household Senate stalwarts Barack Obama, Income: Income: looks doubtful, but if Income: Income: Income: John F. Kerry and Edward M. wind on Elec- anyone can pull it off, ap phoTos tion — the ap phoTos on an $46,230 AP tion Day. Their $56,645 2004 Results $59,393 2nd covers $52,998 Reichert (top) anti-war $52,583 2004 Results Kennedy — and the state’s senior Rohrabacher 2004 Results it’s Stevens, who is still Porter (top) Other Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden. But best pickup Other Other lionized in Alaska for his and Titus 106,000 and Burner platform in 1% Unemployment: (top), Bono Mack opportunity Unemployment: Unemployment: square Unemployment: 2006. This Unemployment: Merkley is benefiting from Obama’s 6.1%* 6.4% 6.1%* 7.7% 2% 1% pork barreling prow- 6.1%* 6.8% 6.1%* 7.3% 5.8% 6.1%* coattails in this Democratic state. lies in the 4th ess. Anchorage Mayor miles. time, Burner, a darling of the Kerry Bush District, where scandal-plagued Bush Though Heller won 50 per- liberal Netroots, has raised Obama has even cut an ad on *National average *National average Kerry Bush Kerry Mark Begich remains the *National average *National average *National average GOP Rep. John Doolittle is retir- 30% 45% cent to 45 percent the first record amounts of money 49% 50% Merkley’s behalf — the first one he 2004 Turnout Rate: 2004 Turnout Rate: 68% 54% favorite, given Stevens’ 2004 Turnout Rate: 2004 Turnout Rate: 2004 Turnout Rate: did for any candidate this election ing. Democrats also believe at- time around, Derby hopes to for a challenger but has 67% torney Nick Leibham has an out- 47.2% legal woes. Ethical issues 66.2% benefit from Barack Obama’s 47.7% struggled to refocus her cam- 61% year. Smith has trailed in recent side shot against San Diego-area are also jeopardizing the vigorous campaign in Reno’s paign on economic issues. polls, but even if he makes a late Pop. Breakdown Rep. Brian Bilbray, who won his Pop. Breakdown reelection bid of Rep. Don Pop. Breakdown Washoe County, the second- Pop. Breakdown Reichert’s moderate voting Pop. Breakdown comeback, it may not be enough. 78.7% seat in a 2006 special election. 94.5% Key Fact Key Fact Young, who has served 65.7% most-populous county in the 91.6% record is a necessity in the 82% UTAH The state, which votes entirely by Urban The presidential race could play Urban as the state’s at-large Urban state. In the 3rd, GOP Rep. Urban Democratic-leaning subur- Urban mail, may have already rendered its Between 1976 and 2004, Idaho Hawaii has voted for the Demo- representative since 1973. Electoral Votes: 5 21.3% a role in these averaged 66.4 percent for the cratic presidential nominee in 34.3% Jon C. Porter is a perennial 8.4% ban Seattle district, and he 18% verdict by Election Day. Democrats races and a few 5.5% Young has been under target in this fast-growing retains popularity from his 2007 Population: 2,645,330 are favored to Rural Rural GOP presidential nominee. Bush all but two elections since it investigation by the FBI Rural Rural Rural others. If, as carried every county but one in became a state in 1959. Fewer swing area around Las Vegas. tenure as King County sher- hold the open some analysts for his ties to the oil After winning the seat in Key Fact iff. But Burner’s financial 5th District seat, 2004: Sun Valley’s Blaine County. than 500,000 votes were cast in predict, Barack Key Fact services company Veco 2002 with 56 percent, his In November edge could allow her to ride after Republican the state in the 2004 presidential and is also under fire Obama wins by George W. Bush election. performance dipped to 54 2006, there were a possible Democratic wave. Demographics businessman from conservatives for AP a large margin twice carried percent in 2004 and then to 152,657 registered What is perhaps the nation’s Mike Erickson his earmarking practices. 85.3% Lungren and the presi- the open 4th 48 percent in 2006. He faces Democrats and premier gubernatorial race is Key Fact White AP was accused of Key Fact dential race District, winning Even Gov. Sarah Palin op- Key Fact former state Senate Minority 149,775 registered also taking place in Wash- Together, Reich- paying for an 0.7% Wyden With the is called well 59 percent to 36 posed Young in the GOP In six reelection Leader Dina Titus, who ran Republicans in the ington, where Democratic ert and Burner ex-girlfriend’s primary; he still eked out Black retirement of before the polls close (11 p.m.
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