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Department of National Defence RUSSIA, THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND THE CASPIAN: A HANDBOOK BY PATRICK ARMSTRONG Ph.D. OTTAWA, CANADA AUGUST 1998 i TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................... II INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 1 WHY THIS HANDBOOK ............................................................................................................................... 3 OIL AND GAS ................................................................................................................................................. 5 THE LAND ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 THE PEOPLES OF THE CAUCASUS ............................................................................................................ 7 Cossacks .................................................................................................................................... 11 HISTORY ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 Before Russia ............................................................................................................................ 12 The Russian Empire .................................................................................................................. 13 After The Russian Empire – 1917-1921 .................................................................................... 14 The South Caucasus ............................................................................................................. 14 The North Caucasus ............................................................................................................. 16 The Soviet Empire ..................................................................................................................... 17 NATIONAL DREAMS AND NIGHTMARES .............................................................................................. 19 Georgia – King David the Builder and Queen Tamar ............................................................... 22 Armenia – Greater Armenia and the Tragedy ........................................................................... 24 Azerbaijan – Turanians, Muslims or Albanians? ...................................................................... 25 The North Caucasians – Mountaineer Republic ........................................................................ 28 DIASPORAS .................................................................................................................................................. 29 SOVIET LEGACIES ...................................................................................................................................... 31 SUFISM-WAHHABISM – AN ISLAMIC FISSURE .................................................................................... 32 POST 1985 WARS ......................................................................................................................................... 33 Karabakh ................................................................................................................................... 34 Ingush-Ossetians ....................................................................................................................... 36 Chechnya ................................................................................................................................... 37 Georgian civil wars ................................................................................................................... 39 Abkhazia ................................................................................................................................... 44 South Ossetia ............................................................................................................................. 49 POTENTIAL BORDER DISPUTES .............................................................................................................. 50 Lezgins ...................................................................................................................................... 50 Azerbaijan-Iran ......................................................................................................................... 51 Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia ......................................................................... 51 Dagestan .................................................................................................................................... 52 HISTORICAL HATREDS .............................................................................................................................. 52 Armenians-Turks ....................................................................................................................... 52 Georgians-Russians ................................................................................................................... 53 Chechens-Russians .................................................................................................................... 53 KALMYKIA ................................................................................................................................................... 54 TENGIZ OIL AND GAS FIELD .................................................................................................................... 56 CASPIAN SEA BORDERS ............................................................................................................................ 57 PIPELINE ROUTES ....................................................................................................................................... 58 Chechnya-Russia route. ....................................................................................................... 60 Georgia route. ...................................................................................................................... 60 Turkey route. ........................................................................................................................ 60 Iran route. ............................................................................................................................ 61 Eastern routes. ..................................................................................................................... 61 NATIONAL INTERESTS .............................................................................................................................. 62 Russia’s Involvement ................................................................................................................ 64 FEDERALISM ............................................................................................................................................... 70 APPENDIX I. ETHNO-LINGUISTIC MAP OF THE CAUCASUS ............................................................. 72 SOURCES USED ........................................................................................................................................... 73 ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Caspian Sea area is shaping up to be one of the biggest sources of oil and gas in the world. A conservative estimate gives about one-sixth the amount of oil as there is in the Gulf area. Every major oil-connected company (including many Canadian companies) is involved today in the oil business in and around the Caspian. Other interests will pull the West, into the area. The Caspian area – particularly the Caucasus – is extraordinarily complicated: there is no other like it anywhere. Dozens of distinct peoples claim it as their home. Many more peoples have arrived “recently” (ie in the past millennium). Since 1991, six wars have been fought in the Caucasus and none of them has produced a final settlement. There are at least nine outstanding border disputes – ten if one counts the Caspian Sea itself. The area is so uniquely complicated, with such an entanglement of ethnic and historical concerns, that ignorance of its complexities can be fatal for wise policy. This paper is intended to be a reference guide and not to be read straight through; continuous reading would, therefore, reveal a good deal of duplication. The Table of Contents has been arranged so that the reader can directly turn to the sections of concern. The sections are summarized below. • “Oil and Gas” discusses current expectations of Caspian hydrocarbon reserves. It is thought that the Caspian area contains at least 100 billion barrels of oil and 500- 600 trillion cubic feet of gas. But, as much is not yet explored, there may be more. • “The Land” gives an overview of the geography of the territory under discussion. • “The Peoples of the Caucasus” describes the extraordinary ethnography of the Caucasus in which are found, at least, twenty-six distinct peoples who call the area home. In addition to the “natives”, the years in the Russian and Soviet Empires means that many other peoples now make the area home. • “History” sketches the major events of the Caucasus from early times to the present. Generally speaking, the Mountaineers (the peoples of the North Caucasus) were independent until conquest, after
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