Volume 2, Issue 3 Summer March 2006 PICTUPLINK Newsletter for the Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism

of new global and regional production EVENTS networks. The focus is particularly on China’s role as a key regional and global hub. Other PICT and EmCorp Ltd successfully delivered issues to be covered in this course are energy the short course “Responding to Chemical, security and the implication of the region’s Biological and Radiological Attacks” at our changing vulnerability for Australian campus on 20-21 February. As illustrated companies as suppliers and customers in below, students suited up for the day to gain emerging production networks. some “hands on” CBR experience:

Dr Langdale presenting on Asia Pacific

Students suiting up for CBR course 27-28 March Intelligence in Counter Terrorism. Visiting Presenter: Malcolm W. Feedback was positive including: Nance An advanced-level workshop designed “Great course, well set out, informative.” for law enforcement, military, risk and security “Course very informative; a little disjointed at experts as well as corporate intelligence times.” officers. It introduces principles of integrating PICT and EmCorp Ltd. are refining the course intelligence information into the counter- for delivery again in October 2006 – check terrorism and public order responses. It our website for dates and registration details. presents the myriad of sources and methods used in collection; demonstrates the value of 7 March Asia Pacific: Threats and real time intelligence analysis and the Opportunities. Presenters include Dr John criticality of a competent intelligence officer. Langdale and practitioner experts. Students will study historical examples on the Designed for policy analysts, corporate use of intelligence in both highly successful strategists and business intelligence and extremely unsuccessful counter-terrorism personnel, this hard hitting workshop operations. examines the emerging vulnerabilities of Asia- Pacific economies as a result of globalization. 29-31 March Terrorist Organisations. This includes an overall assessment of Visiting Presenter: Malcolm W. Nance. An emerging risks, as well as the vulnerabilities advanced workshop on the inner workings of

all types of terrorist groups past, present and conducted in both the Department of Defense potential. Ii introduces new models of terrorist and Department of Homeland Security will be operatives and terrorist attack sequences. It is presented. designed for law enforcement intelligence teams, security/military personnel, and/or sub- 15-16 March International Conference on contractor business intelligence and risk Information Warfare and Security personnel. Includes: Details the inner http://www.academic-conferences.org/iciw/iciw2006/iciw06-home.htm workings of terrorist organisations; (University of Maryland, USA) Fundamentals of Terrorism; History of The objective of the event is to discuss Terrorism; International Terrorist Groups: systems and concepts to combat information Leadership Structure; Terrorist Philosophies; warfare or to improve information systems Cultural Considerations of Terrorism; security. Common Organizational Structures; Terrorist Recruiting and Selection; Terrorist Training 20-21 March Emerging Issues in National Curriculum; Members Profiles; Combat and International Security 2006 http://www.wcl.american.edu/org/nsls/eminint_2006.cfm Techniques and Operational Methodology; (Washington, ) Case study of major past terrorist incidents; The symposium features panels on the special missions infiltration techniques, awarding of governmental national security Terrorist logistics, financing and supply contracts, legislative interpretation of national systems; Specific leadership and operator security, cyber-security and the electronic war roles (for example JI, AQ, ASG): Target on terror, immigration in an age of terrorism, Selection and Attack Methodology. petro-security in the post 9/11 world, FBI vs MI-5, the war over domestic intelligence, international adjudication of terror, and the For further information on these courses: war on terror in the foreign media. Please contact Marijana Wright (PICT Business Manager) at (+61 2) 9850 4712 or 28-30 March Peacekeeping, at Reconstruction and Stability in Africa [email protected] http://www.iqpc.com/cgi-bin/templates/genevent.html?event=9198&topic=221 (Johannesburg, South Africa) Check our online 2006 Short Course The objective of this event is to discuss and Calender: PICT’s exciting and extensive present peacekeeping operations in Africa in short course program can be found at detail. The conference will bring together http://www.pict/courses.html parliaments from European, African and North American countries, representatives of government, and the military from all three continents and international and non- EVENT ALERT governmental organizations.

7-9 March First Radiological Dispersal 7-9 March Australian Fraud Summit Device and Nuclear Event Response (Menzies Hotel, Sydney) Symposium http://www.iir.com.au/conferences/confdetail.html?conf_code=L1236&cat_cod http://www.radandnuke.com e=risk&detail=L1236.html#conference_overview (Richmond, United States) Look out for the PICT booth at the exhibition! The symposium aims to provide a forum for Critical issues addressed at the Summit government and industry to discuss include: The Global Fight Against Fraud; radiological and nuclear threat material, their Fraud Migration; Fraud Prevention & Control; specific hazards, and capabilities for High Tech Crime; Prosecution v Prevention detection, protection, decontamination, and Debate; Combating ID Fraud; Investigating an medical response. Furthermore, results from Incident; Forensics, Litigation and Recovery recent research and development studies

2

30 March Security intelligence failures: A retrospective Ironically the US and Israel initially http://www.pr.mq.edu.au/events/index.asp?ItemID=2273 encouraged Hamas in order to weaken Fateh. (Macquarie University, Sydney) This strategy succeeded but, while rejecting Peter Anderson (Director PICT) will present the corruption and incompetence of the an overview of the new Policing, Intelligence Fateh-dominated Palestinian Authority, voters and Counter Terrorism Unit at Macquarie saw the lack of support given to Mahmoud University. Sandra Bilson’s (Operations Abbas by Washington and Tel Aviv and Manager PICT) lecture will provide insights decided neither the violence of the Intifada into recent intelligence ’failures’ including nor the conciliation of Abbas would achieve September 11, Beslan, Bali and the SIEV-X statehood. So now, Palestinians have turned sea disaster. to people they expect to clean up the government but also to secure for them a 27-28 April: Critical Incident Management state. 2006 http://www.criticalincidentmanagement.com.au (Sydney Exhibition Centre, Darling Hamas’ victory is certainly to be scrutinised Harbour) closely. Its charter calls for the The two day symposium, update conference dismemberment of Israel. Its record of and exposition is Australia’s most violence against Israelis will not be forgotten comprehensive incident and crisis easily and it is of no surprise that the Israeli management event covering incident and government has reacted to the victory with crisis management, business continuity, risk hostility. management and security. But Hamas has also displayed realism and COMMENTARY pragmatism, stressing its willingness to live with Israel within its 1967 borders if Israel will allow a Palestinian state on all the Occupied Hamas: A High Stakes Opportunity Territories. Hamas supported the 2002 peace By Anthony Billingsley, Academic proposal of the then Saudi Crown Prince, Convenor PICT804 International Security Abdallah. That offered recognition of Israel by and the State all Arab League members in return for Israel agreeing inter alia to a Palestinian state on Hamas’ victory in the Palestinian the territories occupied in 1967. Perhaps as a parliamentary elections has thrown the future gesture of good faith, there has been a of Palestine-Israel relations into confusion. cease-fire in place with no suicide attack Analysts are divided. Some regard Hamas’ attributable to Hamas for over 11 months. victory as an opportunity for progress towards a settlement of the Palestine-Israel dispute. The US and Israel have sought to strangle a Others see the result as something to be Hamas government financially and have overturned. demanded fundamental concessions – especially the abandonment of its call for the The United States administration has been destruction of Israel. Failure to comply placed in a dilemma. Bush has been enables the US and Israel to refuse to deal promoting democracy in the Middle East as with the organisation. This could be a hard part of his war on terrorism. Unfortunately, the line to maintain. A comparison might be made elections, among the most democratic with Northern Ireland and Spain where conducted in the region, produced a result not governments negotiated with terrorists without to Washington’s liking. It is hard to see how demanding they abandon their core goals. Washington can demand the Palestinians try again and get it right (by electing a Fateh US and Israeli positions appear set – at least majority). until Israel’s elections. The Europeans,

3

however, are uncomfortable about isolating relevant not only to security personnel but Hamas and applying collective punishment to also ordinary citizens wanting a better the Palestinians. The United Nations argues a understanding of terrorist groups and their policy of ‘wait and see’ might be appropriate. activities in the contemporary international system. Arab governments have rejected US pressure not to replace any financial shortfall caused by Israeli and US policies, while Iran has Global Surveillance and declared its support for the Palestinians. This Policing will worry Arab governments watching the By Elia Zureik and Mark B. growth of Iranian power after the US invasion Salter, Willan Publishing, of Iraq. They will not want to see Iran make 259 pages further inroads into the Palestinian problem. Since the 9.11 attacks in North America and the accession of the Schengen Accord in Europe there has REVIEW been widespread concern with international borders, the passage of people and the flow

of information across borders. States have The Terrorist Recognition fundamentally changed the ways in which Handbook: A Manual for they police and monitor this mobile population Predicting and Identifying and its personal data. Terrorist Activities

By Malcolm Nance This book brings together leading authorities Lyon Press, 336 pages in the field who have been working on the

common problem of policing and surveillance Whether they are acting as a at physical and virtual borders at a time of one-person cell, or with a sophisticated global increased perceived threat. It is concerned finance and logistics network, terrorists can with both theoretical and empirical aspects of be members of nearly any race, sex, religion, the ways in which the modern state attempts or political persuasion. But every terrorist to control its borders and mobile population. operation always has certain characteristics, and the only effective way to identify and prevent terrorists is to observe their behaviour and analyse it with an intelligence-based EDITORIAL approach. Malcolm Nance, a former U.S. military anti-terrorism intelligence officer reveals thousands of Terrorist Attack Pre- On Human Pandemic Influenza in the Age incident Indicators (TAPIs) in this publication, of Globalisation and shows how terrorist operatives are classified and organized by skill level. Nance By David Santoro, PICT Researcher and also focuses on how intelligence, operations, PHD Candidate planning, logistics cells operate and the key steps every terrorist group always Health experts are unanimous. The gradual follow. The Terrorist Recognition Handbook worldwide spread of the now notorious H5N1 shows readers how to recognize the stages of virus in bird populations, which has recently a terrorist plot, as well as affected the Western European region, demonstrating the entire range of attack signifies that the world may be on the brink of tactics, techniques, and methodologies of the outbreak of another very serious global known terrorist groups. Complemented with human pandemic influenza. The risk is that case studies and illustrations, this book is the virus, which currently passes from birds to birds and, much more rarely, from birds to

4

humans, will change into a highly infectious In other words, we are not making progress form that passes from humans to humans, by asking whether or not the world is more causing “incalculable human misery” as the vulnerable today (at the age of globalisation) World Health Organization (WHO) put it in a than yesterday. Clearly, there are grounds for recent report. the two theses. Instead, it seems that in the case of human pandemic influenza like in Human influenza pandemics are rare but others, the key question is whether or not recurrent events. In the twentieth century, human beings will manage to find a way to three of these pandemics occurred, the adapt to their environment in order to reach exceptionally deadly “Spanish influenza” of their ultimate goal: survival. 1918, killing an estimated 40-50 million people throughout the world, and the milder As PICT is committed to promoting human “Asian influenza” of 1957 and “Hong Kong security, we advise you to consult the WHO influenza” of 1968, respectively causing the at www.who.int for detailed information on death of about 2 million and 1 million people. the risks of human pandemic influenza.

Many people have shared their fear that a new pandemic will most likely encircle the PROFILE world in record times as a result of globalisation, spreading death very rapidly Malcolm W. Nance and leaving authorities in an extremely difficult position to respond to the problem with efficiency. Indeed, while the pandemics of 1918, 1957, and 1968 reportedly spread around the world in an amount of time ranging between six to nine months (when most international travel was done by ship), the WHO stresses that the speed and volume of international air travel today could possibly spread the virus on the five continents in less than three months.

Quite evidently, the world would be faced with W. Nance is a 25-year veteran of the US a very rapid spread of the pandemic because intelligence community's Combating of globalisation. Yet, a case can be made Terrorism program. He is a combat veteran that, paradoxically enough, the world would who has served as an intelligence collections also be better equipped than in the past to operator, cryptologist and interrogator. address the problem thanks to globalisation. Malcolm has spent 17 years deployed on anti- In the past decade for instance, the WHO (in terrorism and counter-terrorism intelligence intense cooperation with national operations in the Balkans, Middle East and governments) has developed complex sub-Saharan Africa. In the Global War on influenza alert and response systems. It has Terrorism he served in Afghanistan where he also improved global influenza surveillance conducted intelligence operations in through a network of specialised influenza Nangahar province and 14 months in Iraq as laboratories and has maintained constant a security director at the headquarters of the monitoring of circulating influenza viruses as Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. well as subtypes and strains throughout the During this period he studied the Iraqi world, providing a strong operational support resistance and Al Qaeda’s involvement in the basis to tackle a potential pandemic. insurgency. Malcolm has a BA from New York State University’s Excelsior College and

5

speaks five languages including Arabic, Techniques and Procedures of the Pashto, French, Italian and Spanish. Terrorist Insurgency 2002-2006 Publication date, Summer 2006. His most recent publications include: Al Qaeda 3.0 "Combat and the Call" – - Inside the The Newest Generation of the Bin Strategy and Tactics of the Iraq Laden Jihad Publication 2006. Insurgency. Publication date, Summer Terrorist Tactics – Organizations, 2006. Weapons, Operations and Strategies The New Field of Jihad – A of Modern Political Violence Groups Compendium of the Tactics, 1960-2005, Winter 2006.

6