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A Decision Support Framework for Selecting Feasible Coastal Protection Measures in the Republic of Maldives

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A Decision Support Framework for Selecting Feasible Coastal Protection Measures in the Republic of Maldives A DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTING FEASIBLE COASTAL PROTECTION MEASURES IN THE REPUBLIC OF MALDIVES ENCI790 A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN CIVIL ENGINEERING By ABDULLA THASLEEM ABDUL HAKEEM Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury Christchurch, New Zealand October 2017 A DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTING FEASIBLE COASTAL PROTECTION MEASURES IN THE REPUBLIC OF MALDIVES By ABDULLA THASLEEM ABDUL HAKEEM Supervised by Professor Rajesh Dhakal and Associate Professor Tom Cochrane Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury Christchurch, New Zealand October 2017 ii ABSTRACT In the absence of effective coastal protection measures, low-lying countries face inevitable losses from coastal erosion and coastal flooding under future scenarios of sea level rise and climate change. The Republic of Maldives, the flattest and the lowest-lying country on earth, is one of the most vulnerable countries to the consequences of climate change. Any impacts to the coastline would directly impact the lives and livelihoods of the people, because of the proximity of settlements to the coastline and the dependence of the country’s income on beach tourism. However, the increasing cost of these measures, resulting from evolving technical designs and increasing material prices, coupled with the politicized and ad-hoc nature of coastal protection decision making in the Republic of Maldives, has meant that coastal protection measures are inefficient and costly. Thus, there is a critical need for a method of systematic evaluation of protection measures to aid coastal protection decision making in the Republic of Maldives. This research identified strategic information that would support the selection and implementation of appropriate coastal protection measures. Surveys of local stakeholders and professionals in the Republic of Maldives were used to identify the level of local stakeholders’ knowledge and contribution in the decision making, professionals perception towards common coastal protection measures, and the key parameters and factors that could be used to evaluate the measures. Survey information, together with a thorough review of relevant decision support frameworks, policies, and coastal protection measures in the country and elsewhere, were used to device a coastal protection decision support framework, named THOSHI, for the Republic of Maldives. This study found that coastal protection decision making in the Republic of Maldives needs a more systematic approach to reduce duplication, increase efficiency and enable the selection of appropriate measures for its varied island environments. Even though local stakeholders possess critical information useful for the decision-making process, currently there is minimal involvement of them in coastal protection decision making and the current institutional and policy framework for coastal protection in the country is inadequate, ineffective and weak. A survey of local stakeholders and industry professionals found that soft coastal protection options are not perceived to be viable solutions for the Republic of Maldives, if used exclusively. The survey also identified that the most important parameters for technical evaluation of coastal protection measures are technical viability, multi-hazard resiliency, and socio-aesthetic and environmental acceptability. The technical evaluation component of THOSHI was built on these i parameters and used available cost data to design the financial evaluation component. The results of the case studies confirmed the applicability of THOSHI to different island environments and the ability of THOSHI to take into account unique stakeholder requirements and also conflicts between those requirements and technical considerations. For the problems identified in the case studies, the measures proposed through THOSHI were either identical or better solutions, both technically and financially, than the ones currently implemented. It is expected that the application of THOSHI will facilitate decision makers in strategically evaluating and selecting feasible coastal protection measures for the Republic of Maldives, while also improving documentation, communication and collaboration with stakeholders. Key words: coastal protection, shore protection, coastal engineering, ocean engineering, decision support framework, decision support systems, Maldives ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS In the Name of Allah, the Most Beneficent, the Most Merciful. All praises are due to Allah, to whom belongs all that is in the heavens and the earth, for He alone is truly Wise, All-Aware. I thank God for the countless blessings bestowed upon me and my family, and for giving me the strength and wisdom to complete this journey. I extend my heartfelt gratitude to my primary supervisor Professor Rajesh Dhakal for his unwavering support, guidance and encouragement throughout the research period. This research would not have been possible if not for his fortitude in venturing beyond his usual research interests, his commitment to his word and patience especially through the testing initial months. I am also deeply thankful for having Associate Professor Tom Cochrane come on board as a secondary supervisor, and for his enthusiasm, guidance, constructive feedback and innovative ideas. His attention to detail and perseverance is deeply appreciated. I am profoundly indebted to my business partners for their continuous support throughout my studies, especially my brother-in-law and friend, Ibrahim Shaheem. If not for his hard work and dedication to managing and expanding the business into more profitable ventures in my absence and dealing with various challenges on my behalf, I would not have been able to complete my studies as smoothly as I have. I also thank the staff of Lisa Maldives private limited for their support. I am grateful to the Maldivian community in Christchurch, who have been my second family, for their encouragement and support extended to me and my family. The cheerful times spent with them have been a welcome distraction from the stresses of studies and their support during the birth of my daughter is beyond my ability to express. Their friendship made our stay in New Zealand an adventurous and an unforgettable one. I am thankful to the island councils, professionals and local residents who participated in and supported my research. In particular, my warm gratitude goes to my friends and family who helped me with the research directly or through their networks. I extend my sincere thanks and appreciation to Dr Ruqayya Sulaiman-Hill and the late Jennifer Horner for their assistance in proofreading and formatting this thesis. I express my deepest appreciation to all the members of my family and my wife’s family, especially my parents. Their love, encouragement and prayers greatly helped this dream come true. iii I am deeply indebted to my wife Zimna Thaufeeg for her love, patience, and the tremendous support throughout this trying journey. Her help with every stage of my research from inception to completion, the enthusiasm she developed towards my research area and the various discussions on the subject which helped me dig deeper, think harder and work with more determination. I am truly grateful to her for taking care of and nurturing our son and gifting me with a beautiful daughter, which made the hardest final days of my research joyful. She is my inspiration and this endeavour would be impossible without her. I express my profound love and admiration to my children, Yusuf and Haajar, who are my emotional sustenance. I dedicate this thesis to my beloved parents, my wife and children. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ............................................................................................................. i Acknowledgements ............................................................................................. iii Table of Contents ................................................................................................ v List of Tables ..................................................................................................... ix List of Figures .................................................................................................... xi Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................... xiv 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 1 1.1 Overview .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Statement of Problem ............................................................................................ 3 1.3 Aim and Objectives ............................................................................................... 6 1.4 Research Methodology Overview ............................................................................. 7 1.5 Structure of the Thesis ......................................................................................... 11 2 LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................. 14 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Coastal Protection ..............................................................................................
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