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IM: F NYSE: Expected October 2014 Michael Guichon, Columbia Business School Investment Thesis Recommend investors buy Fiat shares with a target share price of €16.50; over 90% upside • Market significantly underestimating transformative nature of Current Capitalization Chrysler consolidation and the value of the company’s business units. Share Price (as of 5/2/14) € 8.71 Chrysler alone is conservatively worth €16.5bn and Shares outstanding (mm) 1,251 Equity Market Cap (mm) € 10,894 Ferrari/Maserati are worth €6.9bn (~90% of current EV), minimizing Add: Debt (mm) € 29,306 downside Less: Cash (mm) € 19,439 • Total Enterprise Value € 20,761 Chrysler acquisition improves the firm by reducing management Add: Underfunded Pension € 6,000 distraction, leveraging future production and R&D synergies and Adjusted Total Enterprise Value € 26,761 FCA’s improved credit profile Trading Statistics 52 Week Range € 3.91 € 8.85 • FCA’s value is misunderstood due to a cumbersome capital structure, Dividend Yield 0.0% several obscured assets and economic weakness in key markets Average Daily Volume (mm) 12.2 • FCA has great brands managed by excellent capital allocators and Summary Valuation 2014E 2015E 2016E they are taking share in key markets EV/EBITDA 3.08x 2.79x 2.46x • FCA trades at 4.0x normalized earnings P/E 13.15x 8.08x 6.25x P/CPS 1.75x 1.53x 1.42x • Fair Value: €16.50 (8.0x base normalized EPS of €2.05) Note: Consensus as of 5/2/14 2 Company Overview • FCA is the 6th largest automobile manufacturer globally1 • CEO Sergio Marchionne hired in 2004 by founding Agnelli family (31% owners) and encouraged to sell the Fiat Auto subsidiary • Finding no buyers interested in a low margin, Italian focused car company, he began growing the business with the goal of expanding Fiat’s presence globally • Fiat acquired 20% of Chrysler after its 2009 bankruptcy. On January 21, 2014 it acquired 100% ownership • Fiat and Chrysler have been run by CEO Sergio Marchionne since 2004 and 2009 respectively FCA North America Europe LatAm Asia-Pac Ferrari/Maserati Components and Other % of Sales: 53% % of Sales: 19% % of Sales: 11% % of Sales: 5% % of Sales: 4% % of Sales: 8% % of EBIT: 77% % of EBIT: -25% % of EBIT: 17% % of EBIT: 11% % of EBIT: 16% % of EBIT: 5% Breakdown by Geographical Breakdown of Segment Unit Volumes: Type: Mexico, 3.8% Canada, 12.1% Germany, 11.4% Other, 5.7% Teksid - Metal Argentina, 11.7% Casting, 8.5% U.K., Other, 9.9% Other, France, 9.9% 12.3% 17.4% Rest of North Europe, America, Australia, Magneti Mareli - Comau - 20.8% China, 40.5% 22.7% China, 55.2% Auto Parts, 74.1% Automation 18.9% Systems, 18.1% US, 84.1% Italy, 48.0% Brazil, 82.6% Europe, 23.2% Japan, 9.8% 1By revenues 3 Source: Fiat 2013 Annual Report How the Chrysler deal is transformational • The Chrysler purchase was a very value accretive deal; Fiat paid $4.4bn in cash for a business that generated $3.1bn in EBIT in 2013 • The addition of Chrysler changed Fiat from a regional car manufacturer into the 6th largest in the world 1. Operational synergies – a larger manufacturing base with a more diverse group of product cycles will allow the combined company to achieve higher average levels of capacity utilization and increase sales in formerly underserved areas around the world 2. The use of common components and vehicle platforms between Fiat and Chrysler will reduce design and manufacturing costs 3. Increased scale allows FCA to generate high ROI from investments in R&D, i.e. R&D synergies with Ferrari and Maserati Marchionne inherited a loss making Italian car/tractor/parts maker in 2004 and created a global automotive giant 4 Key Drivers of Normalized Earnings Normalized Earnings Potential • €2.05 with Europe at Breakeven (base € 3,500 € 3.00 case, expected in 2016) € 0.50 € 2.55 € 3,000 € 2.50 • €2.55 long term with modest € 0.40 € 2.05 European recovery € 2,500 € 2.00 € 0.04 mm) € 0.24 • Normalized earnings yield € € 2,000 € 0.01 of 24%-30% € 0.37 € 1.50 EPS € 1,500 • Continued strong € 0.36 Net Income( € 1.00 performance/market share gains of € 1,000 Chrysler in North America € 0.63 € 0.50 • Return to high single digit/low double € 500 digit margins in LATAM € - € - • Cash balance reduced by €10bn to delever. Average weighted cost of debt falls 120bps to 5.3% A return to normal earnings driven by Italian/Brazilian recoveries, Chrysler performance and capital structure 6 rationalization Capital Structure Capital Structure • Previously, complicated ownership structure and debt covenants prevented Fiat from accessing Chrysler’s liquidity and led to an excessive cash balance at Chrysler and a highly inefficient overall capital structure • With full ownership of Chrysler, cash will start to be more fungible between Fiat and Chrysler, FCA can begin to reduce its gross debt burden • The simplified company has a much better credit profile and this has been reflected in an improvement in credit default swap levels Capital Structure Optimization 2013A Normalized Change • FCA’s cost of 7 year debt is currently 4.3% in EUR Debt € 29,875 € 20,039 € (9,836) Cash € 19,439 € 10,000 € (9,439) Net Debt € 10,436 € 10,039 € (397) • FCA is rated BB-/B1/BB- (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch) Interest Expense € (1,995) € (1,062) € 933 Interest Income € 97 € 100 € 3 • Debt/EBITDA = 3.9x, interest coverage = 1.5x Cost of Debt 6.7% 5.3% -1.4% Income Interest Rate 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% Net Interest Margin -6.2% -4.3% 1.9% • In 2017, Debt/EBITDA = 2.4x, interest coverage = 3.4x Net Debt Expense € (1,898) € (962) € 936 ETR 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% • Future credit rating upgrades are likely Net Income Impact € (1,139) € (577) € 562 EPS Impact € (0.91) € (0.46) € 0.45 Rationalizing the company’s capital structure will increase pre-tax earnings significantly 8 North America Chrysler/North America (Value: €16.6bn) QoQ Chrysler Group Performance • Given Chrysler’s 2013 EBITDA of approximately €4.4bn, $30,000 15.0% FCA’s EV is trading at 5.8x Chrysler’s LTM EBITDA $20,000 10.0% • Chrysler has maintained steady margins in recent years while growing revenue in the US and Canada by taking $10,000 5.0% market share $0 0.0% • Since Marchionne took control, North American market Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 share grew from 9.2% in 2009 to 11.5% in 2013, which is Q1 '10 still below 2007 pre-crisis level of 12.6% Qtly Revenue (mm USD) EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin 1 • Chrysler’s previous underperformance can largely be Chrysler Market Share 16.00% attributable to management, which is no longer a Marchionne Takes Control concern given Marchionne’s strong track record 11.00% 6.00% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1US, Canada and Mexico respectively represent 83%, 12% and 5% of North American Chrysler vehicles sold US Canada Mexico Total North America Chrysler has steadily improved operations in North America versus Ford and GM … 10 Chrysler/North America (Value: €16.6bn) Annual EBITDA (mn USD) • Were Chrysler to trade in the market on a standalone basis at $20,000 peer multiples, it would be valued significantly higher than $15,000 16.6bn $10,000 • From 2010 to 2013, Chrysler grew EBITDA at a 21.0% CAGR $5,000 versus -5% for Ford and -1% for GM $0 • Ford and GM’s TEV/EBITDA LTM are 11.5x and 4.8x respectively 2010 2011 2012 2013 • Given EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA multiples for Ford and GM, Chrysler GM Ford Chrysler would be worth between €24.0bn and €37.1bn, or Annual EBIT (mn USD) 90% to 138% of FCA’s current EV with net pension obligations $10,000 $5,000 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 Chrysler GM Ford … yet still trades at a discounted valuation 11 How you improve a brand • Chrysler’s reorganization strategy is focused on improving its products and relying on existing brands to drive consumer demand and take market share • FCA’s global reach will help Chrysler sell into new markets and increase penetration in emerging markets • Producing Chrysler brands for European markets in Italy will reduce idle capacity and have a meaningful impact on profitability 2007 Jeep Grand Cherokee V8 2014 Jeep Grand Cherokee V8 • Base price: $34,690 • Base price: $36,790 • 13 mpg city, 20 mpg highway • 18 mpg city, 26 mpg highway • 0-60 in 9 seconds • 0-60 in 7 seconds Chrysler does not need to completely reinvent itself in order to succeed 12 Valuation of North America • Chrysler has steadily gained market share and maintained consistent margins since Marchionne took over in 2009 • Jeep is the #1 SUV brand in the US; Ram trucks sales have experience double digit growth rates since 2009 • New Jeep and Ram models will help Chrysler continue top line growth NAFTA Segment Financials 2013A 2017E Normalized Low High Revenue € 45,777 € 54,690 € 55,000 € 50,000 € 60,000 EBIT Margin 5.0% 5.8% 5.8% 5.0% 6.5% EBIT € 2,290 € 3,149 € 3,190 € 2,500 € 3,900 EBITDA € 3,820 € 4,985 € 5,026 € 4,336 € 5,736 NOPAT € 1,489 € 2,047 € 2,074 € 1,625 € 2,535 ETR 35.0% Net Income € 968 € 1,330 € 1,348 € 1,056 € 1,648 EPS € 0.77 € 1.06 € 1.08 € 0.84 € 1.32 Fair Value Base Bear Bull EBIT Multiple 5.20x 4.23x 6.50x EBITDA Multiple 3.30x 2.44x 4.42x NOPAT Multiple 8.00x 6.50x 10.00x EV of Segment € 16,588 € 10,563 € 25,350 As % of Current Adjusted EV 62.2% 39.6% 95.0% Value Per Share € 13.26 € 8.44 € 20.27 13 International Fiat - Focus on Capacity Utilization • A recovery in European automotive demand, particularly in Italy, will 180.0% naturally increase Fiat’s capacity 3.0% utilization and lead to margin expansion 160.0% • Increasing demand of higher margin 1.0% luxury brands in Italy will improve 140.0% Revenue/Assets (lhs)
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