Community Risk Register for the Northumbria Local

COMMUNITY RISK REGISTER

FOR THE

NORTHUMBRIA LOCAL RESILIENCE FORUM

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Contents

Introduction ...... 1 Northumbria LRF Membership ...... 2 The Northumbria LRF area ...... 4 How to use the this document ...... 5 Risk Rating Matrix ...... 7 Definitions of Risk Ratings ...... 8 Categories of Impact ...... 9 Impact Scoring Scale ...... 10 Likelihood Scoring Scale ...... 12 RISK ASSESSMENTS ...... 13 Discounted Risks ...... 50 Threats ...... 54 Annex 1: Contact Details for Lead Assessors ...... 55 Annex 2: Glossary ...... 59

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Introduction

Northumbria Local Resilience Forum Community Risk Register November 2013

The Northumbria Local Resilience Forum Community Risk Register

The Northumbria Local Resilience Forum (LRF) Community Risk Register (CRR) is published in compliance with the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (Section 2 (1)) and is now hosted on the Northumbria LRF website http://www.northumberland.gov.uk/Default.aspx?page=8200.

More information on the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 can be found at http://interim.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/ukresilience.aspx.

The CRR is an important document produced following extensive work by the partners within the Northumbria LRF area. The CRR provides a basis for local responders to consider which emergency plans are required and whether any existing plans should be modified in the light of the risk assessment.

The inclusion of these hazards or the particular scenario (for instance, the outcome description) does not mean that the Northumbria LRF believes the risk will materialise, or that if it were to do so, it would be at that scale. The risk scenarios are rather reasonable worst case assumptions upon which our risk assessment is based.

The likelihood assessments relate to the risk occurring over a five-year period at the magnitude reflected within the outcome description. The magnitude is based on an assessment of a reasonable worst case scenario.

As part of the risk assessment process, we have been considering the likelihood and impact of a range of hazards occurring. This work, a statutory requirement under the Civil Contingencies Act, is a continuing process and examples are provided for all of the hazards to illustrate the individual assessment work that has been completed so far. It is our intention to make further details available via this website as and when it is practical and appropriate to do so.

In addition to the hazards contained within this Risk Register there are also several malicious threats highlighted. Due to the sensitivity of some of these threats it is not possible to explore them in great detail in this document. Northumbria Police together with other LRF partner agencies have in place appropriate measures to ensure these risks are mitigated against and recovery plans in place to minimise the impact should such threats be realised, this is an ongoing process reacting to changing events and threat assessments. Current threat assessments include firearms incidents, chemical or biological releases and other threats requiring a multi-agency response. Details of this Threat Assessment can be found on page 55.

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Risk assessment is not a static process and is subject to constant review. As a result, the information contained in the register published on this website will be regularly updated.

The Northumbria LRF CRR has been produced by a Risk Assessment Working Group (RAWG) chaired by Helen Hinds, Head of Resilience, Newcastle City Council. The CRR is based upon risk assessment work undertaken at a national level, supplemented by local assessments carried out by local lead assessors who are members of the Northumbria LRF RAWG. The RAWG comprises representatives from the emergency services, Health and Safety Executive, Health Protection Agency, Environment Agency, Maritime and Coastguard Agency, utilities companies and local authorities in Tyne and Wear and Northumberland. DCLG Resilience (North) has also played an advisory role.

Northumbria LRF Membership

The Northumbria LRF is established under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004. Its members are as follows:

Category One Responders Public Health England Newcastle City Council Health Services: Sunderland City Council NHS England CNWAT Gateshead Council Northumbria Healthcare Trust North Tyneside Council Newcastle Hospitals Trust South Tyneside Council Gateshead Hospital Trust Northumberland County Council South Tyneside Hospital Trust Northumbria Police City Hospitals Hospitals Trust British Transport Police North East Ambulance Service Northumberland Fire and Rescue Service Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service Maritime and Coastguard Agency Environment Agency Tyne Port Health Authority

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Category Two Responders

Northumberland and Tyne and Wear Foundation Trust Clinical Commissioning Groups: - Newcastle West - Newcastle North and East - Northumberland - North Tyneside - South Tyneside - Sunderland - Gateshead Northern Powergrid Scottish Power Telecommunications Companies e.g. BT National Transcommunications Limited Cellular Airtime Providers – e.g. 02, Vodafone Network Rail (Northern Rail, East Coast Cross Country, TransPennie Express, Grand Central Railway) Health and Safety Executive Northumbria Water Limited Nexus Port of Tyne Newcastle International Airport Highways Agency Meteorological Office

Additional Partners

Voluntary Sector Military Representative, HQ 15 (NE) Brigade and No 2 Region DCLG Resilience (North)

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The Northumbria LRF area

The Northumbria LRF area is coterminous with the Northumbria Police Force area and comprises the County of Northumberland and the area of Tyne and Wear which comprises Newcastle, North Tyneside, Gateshead, South Tyneside and Sunderland. It stretches from the border with Scotland around Berwick-upon-Tweed in the north to the City of Sunderland in the south. It also stretches from the North Sea coast in the east to the border with Cumbria in the west and has borders with County Durham in the south west.

Northumbria has an overall population of circa 1,417,000 (Office for National Statistics, October 2011), clustered mainly in and around the Tyne and Wear conurbations. The main populated area of Northumberland is the south-east corner of the county and in rural parts of Northumberland, market towns are centres of population serving surrounding smaller villages.

Northumbria is served as follows: • Major roads: A1 (M), A1, A19, A189, A68, A69, A696, A697 and others • Major rail links: East Coast mainline to and from London and Scotland, Newcastle/Carlisle east-west link • Newcastle International Airport • Ports of Tyne, Sunderland and Blyth • Metro • Tyne Tunnels

Northumbria boasts the Northumberland National Park and Northumberland has several miles of coastline designated Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) as are parts of the North Pennines. There is a fine heritage of historic buildings, archaeological sites and monuments, including Hadrian’s Wall which is a World Heritage site.

There are several large shopping complexes, the largest being the Metro Centre, Gateshead and there are large entertainment venues such as The Sage, Gateshead and Newcastle Arena. Northumbria boasts two premiership football clubs with stadium capacities of up to 52,000 and several smaller sporting venues, including a premiership rugby union stadium and an international athletics stadium.

Northumbria has a history of coalmining, shipbuilding and heavy engineering. Many of the traditional industries have been replaced by modern industrial developments and service based organisations.

There are currently ten top-tier COMAH (Control of Major Accident Hazard Regulations 1999) sites in Northumbria, eight in Tyne and Wear and two in Northumberland.

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How to use the this document

There is a Risk Rating Matrix at page 7 which provides a scale for both Likelihood and Impact of an event. Within the coloured boxes “Very High”, High”, Medium” and “Low” there are Risk References which provide a hyperlink to the relevant page of the Community Risk Register. By clicking on these links you will be taken automatically to the relevant page. To return to the Risk Matrix please click the hyperlink at the top left corner of the table. If you are using a hard copy of the document the Risks are listed in priority order, starting on page 13.

Contacts

Lead Assessors who have produced risk assessments for the CRR are identified in Annex 1, together with their contact details. Please contact Lead Assessors direct regarding individual risk assessments.

To raise a general query about any other aspects of the CRR please contact the following:

Helen Hinds Head of Resilience Planning Newcastle City Council Civic Centre Barras Bridge Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8QH

Tel: 0191 278 7878 Email: [email protected] Web: www.newcastle.gov.uk

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Risk Rating Matrix

Key

Very (5) H16 ophic High Catastr HL37 H24 H4 HL2 HL16 High H11 HL22a HL17 (4) HL18 H55 H42 HL34 HL12 H23 H9 Significant Medium HL9 HL14c

HL4 HL14d HL14e

HL19 Low H15 H31 HL3 H18 HL23 H7 HL28 HL14b H17 H46

(3) HL20 H50 HL30 H41 H25 H26 H40

Moderate HL22 H39 SHL99 H58 H48 H57 H56 H44 HL56 H54

Relative Impact H49 HL8

H28a HL11 HL55 H45 H13 SHL9 H38 HL10 H29 H36 H14

(2) H28b

Minor HL13 HL31 HL7 H30 H35 HL42 HL33 HL21

(1) H33 H37 Limite

Low (1) Medium Low (2) Medium (3) Medium High (4) High (5)

Relative Likelihood

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Definitions of Risk Ratings

• Very high (VH) risk – these are classed as primary or critical risks requiring immediate attention. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are such that they must be treated as a high priority. This may mean that strategies should be developed to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also that mitigation in the form of (multi-agency) planning, exercising and training for these hazards should be put in place and the risk monitored on a regular frequency. Consideration should be given to planning being specific to the risk rather than generic.

• High (H) risk – these risks are classed as significant. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are sufficiently serious to warrant appropriate consideration after those risks classed as ‘very high’. Consideration should be given to the development of strategies to reduce or eliminate the risks, but also mitigation in the form of at least (multi-agency) generic planning, exercising and training should be put in place and the risk monitored on a regular frequency.

• Medium (M) risk – these risks are less significant, but may cause upset and inconvenience in the short term. These risks should be monitored to ensure that they are being appropriately managed and consideration given to their being managed under generic emergency planning arrangements.

• Low (L) risk – these risks are both unlikely to occur and not significant in their impact. They should be managed using normal or generic planning arrangements and require minimal monitoring and control unless subsequent risk assessments show a substantial change, prompting a move to another risk category. Reference: Emergency Preparedness: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emergency-preparedness

Key to Risk Numbers:

H: Hazards which require a national as well as a local response HL: Hazards which would not ordinarily prompt a national response, and would usually be dealt with locally SHL: Substitute Hazards (Local) T: Threats

Risk Priorities:

Each of the hazards identified in the community risk register have also been allocated a risk priority (1-5). 1 being the lowest priority which relates to discounted risks and 5 being the highest applying to risks identified as very high.

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Categories of Impact

Category Explanation

Health Encompassing direct health impacts (numbers of people affected, fatalities, injuries, human illness or injury, health damage) and indirect health impacts that arise because of strain on the health service Social Encompassing the social consequences of an event, including availability of social welfare provision; disruption of facilities for transport; damage to property; disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel; disruption of an electronic or other system of communication; homelessness, evacuation and avoidance behaviour; and public disorder due to anger, fear, and/or lack of trust in the authorities Economic Encompassing the net economic cost, including both direct (e.g. loss of goods, buildings, infrastructure) and indirect (e.g. loss of business, increased demand for public services) costs Environmental Encompassing contamination or pollution of land, water or air with harmful biological/chemical/radioactive matter or oil, flooding, or disruption or destruction of plant or animal life

Note

Strictly, levels 1 and 2 of the impact scale are likely to fall below the threshold for an emergency. Consequently, there may be no statutory requirement to plan for events that score 1 or 2 on the impact scale. This scale recognises that, to demonstrate a thorough analysis, Category 1 responders will wish to include in their risk assessment certain risks with impacts at these levels.

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Impact Scoring Scale

Level Descriptor Categories of Impact Description of Impact

1 Limited Health • Insignificant number of injuries or impact on health Social • Insignificant number of persons displaced and insignificant personal support required • Insignificant disruption to community services, including transport services and infrastructure Economic • Insignificant impact on local economy Environment • Insignificant impact on environment 2 Minor Health • Small number of people affected, no fatalities, and small number of minor injuries with first aid treatment Social • Minor damage to properties • Minor displacement of a small number of people for < 24 hours and minor personal support required • Minor localised disruption to community services of infrastructure < 24 hours Economic • Negligible impact on local economy and cost easily absorbed Environment • Minor impact on environment with no lasting effects 3 Moderate Health • Moderate number of fatalities with some casualties requiring hospitalisation and medical treatment and activation of MAJAX, the automated intelligent alert notification system, procedures in one or more hospitals Social • Damage that is confined to a specific location, or to a number of locations, but requires additional resources • Localised displacement of >100 people for 1-3 days • Localised disruption to infrastructure and community services Economic • Limited impact on local economy with some short term loss of production, with possible additional clean-up costs Environment • Limited impact on environment with short-term or long-term effects

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Level Descriptor Categories of Impact Description of Impact

4 Significant Health • Significant number of people in affected area impacted with multiple fatalities, multiple serious or extensive injuries, significant hospitalisations and activation of MAJAX procedures across a number of hospitals Social • Significant damage that requires support for local responders with external resources • 100 to 500 people in danger and displaced for longer than 1 week. Local responders require external resources to deliver personal support • Significant impact on and possible breakdown of delivery of some local community services Economic • Significant impact on local economy with medium-term loss of production • Significant extra clean-up and recovery costs Environment • Significant impact on environment with medium to long term effects

5 Catastrophic Health • Very large numbers of people in affected area(s) impacted with significant numbers of fatalities, large numbers of people requiring hospitalisation with serious injuries and longer-term effects. Social • Extensive damage to properties and built environment in affected area requiring major demolition • General and widespread displacement of more than 500 people for prolonged duration and extensive personal support required • Serious damage to infrastructure causing significant disruption to, or loss of, key services for prolonged period. Community unable to function without significant support Economic • Serious impact on local and regional economy with some long-term, potentially permanent, loss of production with some structural change • Extensive clean-up and recovery costs Environment • Serious long-term impact on environment and/or permanent damage

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Likelihood Scoring Scale

Level Descriptor Likelihood over 5 years Likelihood over 5 years

1 Low >0.005% >1 in 20,000 chance

2 Medium Low >0.05% >1 in 2,000 chance

3 Medium >0.5 >1 in 200 chance

4 Medium High >5% >1 in 20 chance

5 High >50% >1 in 2 chance

Reference: Emergency Preparedness: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emergency-preparedness

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RISK ASSESSMENTS Regional Risk Assessments Where a hazard is colour washed this indicates that the information has been taken from the National Risk Assessment.

Risk Ref

Hazard or Threat Risk Capability Additional risk treatment Outcome Description Controls currently in place (Link below Category Rating Required required (with timescale) returns to Matrix) Likelihood Impact Lead Organisation DateReview

H9 Industrial Accident – There are a number of sites 3 4 Very The TT and LT COMAH sites are regulated There may be other sites in this Oct 14 Toxic release. processing and storing toxic High jointly by HSE and EA acting as the CA. TT area that handle toxic substances near populated areas. sites are required to demonstrate safe substances – but they are not Large release of toxic Releases of gas due to loss of operation through a safety report. The site is encompassed by the COMAH substance. Up to 3km containment can travel downwind at subject to planned inspection regime which regime and they are not required around site causing up harmful concentrations for significant samples on site control measures and to formally notify the inventory to 50 fatalities and up to distances. Toxic substances can also focuses on the worst case events. LT sites are held. Such premises are subject 2000 casualties. be carried with the smoke from fires. subject to an inspection regime which to HSW Act. Local knowledge Those sites storing and processing samples the on site control measures. will be required to identify such liquefied toxic gas present the greatest sites and generic plans should be These events arise from TT COMAH sites with hazard. in place to deal with incidents at specific on site and off site emergency plans in such sites. place. There is a legal requirement under

COMAH for such plans to be regularly tested

Executive Safety Health & and exercised. TT COMAH sites are required to provide information on the substances held, and what to do in an emergency to the local population. H55 Severe effusive (gas A severe volcanic eruption, generating 3 4 Very Council: Business continuity plans None at present Oct 14 (new risk) rich) volcanic eruption large amounts of gas and ash over a 5 High Other organisations:

overseas months period affecting the UK and Volcanic ash advisories issued by the Met Northern Europe Office London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre Office (VAAC)

Continuing research by BGS, the Met Office, Meteorological Icelandic Met Office and other organisations HL2 Localised large release There are a number of sites 3 4 Very Safe The TT and LT COMAH sites are regulated There may be other sites in this Oct 14 of toxic substance. Up processing and storing toxic High working jointly by HSE and EA acting as the CA. TT area that handle toxic to 3km around site substances. Releases of gas due to regimes sites are required to demonstrate safe substances – but they are not causing up to 30 loss of containment can travel Site operation through a safety report. The site is encompassed by the COMAH fatalities and up to 250 downwind at harmful concentrations specific subject to planned inspection regime which regime and they are not required casualties. for significant distances. Toxic plans samples on site control measures and to formally notify the inventory substances can also be carried with focuses on the worst case events. LT sites are held. Such premises are subject the smoke from fires. Those sites subject to an inspection regime which to HSW Act. Local knowledge storing and processing liquefied toxic samples the on site control measures. will be required to identify such gas present the greatest hazard. sites and generic plans should be These events arise from TT COMAH sites with in place to deal with incidents at specific on site and off site emergency plans in such sites. place. There is a legal requirement under COMAH for such plans to be regularly tested

and exercised. Executive Health and Safety

TT COMAH sites are required to provide information on the substances held, and what to do in an emergency to the local population.

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Risk Ref

HL16 Local coastal / tidal Sea surge, spring tides, gale force 3 4 Very Measures • Northumbria Multi-agency Flood Plan Oct 14 flooding (affecting more winds and/or heavy rainfall affecting High to prevent • Northumbria LRF Telecommunications Plan - Pinch point mapping than one region) more than one region, some defences / mitigate • Met Office National Severe Weather - Pre-deployment planning overtopped or failing at multiple the effects Warnings and adverse weather policy locations. Flooding of 1000 to 10,000 of major • Environment Agency Local Flood Warning properties for up to 14 days. Up to 20 flooding. Plans for each council area fatalities, 300 casualties and up to 200 • Environment Agency flood warning service; missing persons. Up to 50,000 people river and rainfall monitoring network; Tidal (including tourists) in coastal villages forecasting system; Flood Advisory service. and towns evacuated from flooded • Fire and Rescue Water Incident Managers sites. People stranded over a large (WIMS) for advice and assessment.

area and up to 5,000 people in need of • Fire and Rescue and Environment Agency rescue. Up to 10,000 needing High Volume Pumps. assistance with sheltering for up to 12 • Flood Rescue Concept of Operations 2011. months. Multi agency response • LA Flood plans invoked, possible large scale • evacuation required. Suddenness of National coordination arrangements failure of defences would not be possible to predict. Tidal inundation

would be rapid and wave impact would Environment Agency cause structural damage to properties. Impact on infrastructure includes: widespread disruption for 7-14 days, salt damage, road and bridge damage, debris and contaminated water supplies and pollutants from affected businesses. Rural impacts include: widespread livestock carcasses, waterborne disease. Sewage treatment works flooded. Numerous properties destroyed. Many more uninhabitable for 12 months.

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Risk Ref

HL18 Local/Urban flooding A sustained period of heavy rainfall 3 4 Very Measures • Northumbria Multi-agency Flood Plan Oct 14 (fluvial or surface run- extending over two weeks, perhaps High to prevent • Northumbria LRF Telecommunications Plan None identified off) combined with snow melt, resulting in / mitigate • Environment Agency Local Flood Warning flash flooding and steadily rising river the effects Plans for each council area levels across entire counties and could of • Environment Agency flood warning service; threaten a large urban town. Localised localised river and rainfall monitoring network; Flood flooding of 1000 to 10,000 properties flooding. Advisory service. for 2-7 days. Up to 15 fatalities and • Environment Agency flood defences and 150 casualties. Up to 15,000 people watercourse maintenance programme. evacuated. Up to 500 stranded over a • Fire and Rescue Water Incident Managers large area and in need or rescue. (WIMS) for advice and assessment. There would be major impact on road • Fire and Rescue and Environment Agency and rail links, making them impassable

High Volume Pumps for up to 5 days. • Flood Rescue Concept of Operations 2011. Impact on infrastructure includes: • Northumbrian Water Incident Plan some building collapses, water • damage, road and bridge damage, Community owned Flood Warden groups in sediment movement and Northumbria LRF Area, including at contamination of water supplies. Loss Morpeth, Ponteland, Haydon Bridge, of essential services (gas, electricity & Rothbury, Blackhall Mill, Gateshead, telecoms) to 20,000 homes for up to Netherton, Hepscott (Flood Action Group). 14 days. Flood Warden groups may be established Environment Agency Widespread disruption for 7-14 days, in Corbridge in the near future. • significant debris and pollutants from NEAS Swift water rescue capability affected businesses. Up to 1,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months.

Rural impacts include: widespread livestock carcasses, waterborne disease. Sewage treatment works flooded. Up to 50 properties destroyed and many more inhabitable. Up to 2,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months.

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Risk Ref

HL17 Localised coastal / tidal Sea surge, spring tides, gale force 4 4 Very Measures • Northumbria Multi-agency Flood Plan None identified Oct 14 flooding winds and/or heavy rainfall affecting High to prevent • Northumbria LRF Telecommunications Plan one region, a defence system / mitigate overtopped or failing at a single the effects • Met Office National Severe Weather location. Localised impact with of Warnings and adverse weather policy infrastructure affected and up to 1000 localised • Environment Agency Local Flood Warning properties flooded for up to 14 days. flooding. Plans for each council area Up to 10 fatalities, 150 casualties and • Environment Agency flood warning service; up to 100 missing persons. Up to river and rainfall monitoring network; Tidal 20,000 people (including tourists) in forecasting system; Flood Advisory service.

coastal villages and towns evacuated • Fire and Rescue Water Incident Managers from flooded sites. People stranded (WIMS) for advice and assessment. over a large area and up to 2,000 • Fire and Rescue and Environment Agency people in need of rescue. Up to 3,000 High Volume Pumps. people needing assistance with • Flood Rescue Concept of Operations 2011 sheltering for up to 12 months. Multi agency response invoked with some local evacuation and cordoning off of

affected areas. Tidal inundation would Environment Agency be rapid and wave impact would cause structural damage to properties. Impact on infrastructure includes: localised disruption for up to 7 days, salt damage, road damage, debris and contaminated local water supplies and pollutants from affected businesses. Rural impacts include: livestock carcasses, waterborne disease. Some properties destroyed and others uninhabitable for 12 months.

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Risk Ref

H23 Human Disease: High consultation rates greater than 4 4 Very Measures World Health Organisation monitoring situation none identified July 14 Influenza type disease 500 GP consultations per week per High to prevent world-wide. (pandemic) 100,000 population at the peak, / mitigate overwhelming health and other the effects National/local plans have produced plans. services (probably as part of global of an epidemic, I.e. pandemic). Influenza NHS England and Public Health England In the case of pandemic influenza a pandemic. (PHE) have updated regional / local plans to substantial proportion of (possibly all) reflect changes to NHS and public health. of the population is likely to be non- immune. Anti-viral drugs have been purchased by HM Government. In past pandemics, the scale and

severity of illness ( and hence England consequences) have been variable but broadly of a higher order than even the NHS most severe winter epidemics Pandemic likely to occur in two waves, about 3-9 months apart; each wave likely to last 12 weeks.

Clinical attack rate of 25% with mortality assumption of 1-3% of those infected; age range vulnerability – all ages, including children, likely to be affected

H16 Aviation Accident – mid The collision of two aircraft over an 2 5 High Procedure - Local Authority Major Incident Plans None identified. Oct 14 air collision urban conurbation resulting in multiple s/ systems - Air Traffic Control deaths and casualties from within the to prevent - Air Collision Avoidance Systems.

aircraft and on the ground. mid air Service T & W Fire collisions. and Rescue

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Risk Ref

H4 Industrial Accident - Fires and explosion resulting from loss 2 4 High Site The TT and LT COMAH sites are regulated There may be other sites in this Oct 14 Fire /Explosion at a fuel of containment and ignition of specific jointly by HSE and EA acting as the CA. TT area that handle flammable distribution site or a site flammable liquid in storage, or plans sites are required to demonstrate safe substances – but they are not storing or processing flammable liquid/vapour in process. operation through a safety report. The site is encompassed by the COMAH

flammable liquids subject to planned inspection regime which regime and they are not required and/or toxic liquids in In Northumberland and Tyne and samples on site control measures and to formally notify the inventory atmospheric pressure Wear there are COMAH and NIHHS focuses on the worst case events. LT sites are held. Such premises are subject storage tanks sites in this category. There is a fuel subject to an inspection regime which to HSW Act. Local knowledge storage and distribution site in Jarrow. samples the on site control measures. will be required to identify such 3Km around site There are other non – notified sites sites and generic plans should be causing 10-150 which present the same hazard but The worst case events arise from TT COMAH in place to deal with incidents at fatalities and up to 200 with lower consequences. sites with specific on site and off site such sites. casualties. emergency plans in place. There is a legal requirement under COMAH for such plans to Fire and Rescue Services have be regularly tested and exercised. generic or specific plans for sub / Fire and Rescue Service Service and Rescue Fire /

COMAH/NIHHS sites. TT COMAH sites are required to provide information on the substances held, and what Recommendations of the Newton ecutive to do in an emergency to the local population. Report into Buncefield being considered and implemented The planning for the significant events should cover the moderate events. Following the Buncefield explosion and fire a response programme team has been reviewing all aspects of safety at fuel storage depots, along with planning issues. The team

has identified a series of improvements, set Ex Health and Safety out in the PSLG report, which is in process of being rolled out at these types of installations. The improvements also reduce the risk to the environment.

HL12 Transport Accident - Up to 50 fatalities and up to 500 2 4 High Procedure Police Major Incident Plan in place none identified. Oct 14 Local accident involving casualties (direct injuries from the s to transport of hazardous accidents would be similar to road or prevent / Police Traffic Management plans for arteriole chemicals rail accidents, indirect casualties are mitigate routes in place possible, if substance covers wide transport area). The extent of the impact would accidents FRS Standard Operating Procedures in line depend on substance involved, with National Generic Risk assessment quantity, nature and location of guidance. accident. The assumption is based on phosgene/chlorine. National Highways Agency procedures Northumbria Police NEAS HART capability

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Risk Ref

H31 Significant or perceived Retail filling stations, depending on the 2 3 High Fuel Plan Plan for 10 day loss of fuel Oct 14 significant constraint on extent of the disruption and their the supply of fuel at locations, would start to run dry Category 1& 2 Business Continuity plans filling stations e.g. between 24 - 48 hours. Oil depots, for industrial action by example those supplying emergency contract drivers for fuel, services and critical supply chains, refinery staff, or would also face reduced deliveries, effective fuel blockades and it is likely that they would at key refineries / progressively begin to run short of fuel. terminals by protestors, Panic buying could exacerbate the due to the price of fuel. situation. Replenishment of sites afterwards could take between 3 - 4 days, largely depending on the extent of disruption. The extent of disruption would depend on the extent to which normal deliveries of fuel to customers

could be maintained. Lessons learnt from the 2012 potential tanker drivers strike will inform the 2013 NRA assessment. Full range of consequences • Economic impact – Moderate, £200 million for day’s disruption as reasonable worst case scenario. • Fatalities – unlikely • Casualties – Very low • Social Disruption – severe disruption to key regional Group Lead Capacities Theme LRF transport services for 1-2 weeks, freight and problems for essential staff such as medical staff and teachers, as well as impact on heating fuel. • Public Outrage – significant, particularly as this has happened before and Government was unable to mitigate risk. • Public Anxiety – significant due to perception of being more vulnerable to strike/protest action which leads to personal inconvenience.

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Risk Ref

H41 Technical failure of Total blackout for up to 3-5 days due 2 3 High Procedure Category 1 & 2 responder Business Continuity None Identified Oct 14 electricity network to loss of National Grid. 3 days is best s/ plans time. If there is damage to the network measures (say from storms) this timescale could to prevent LRF Multi agency coordination plan be extended up to 5 days. Possible technical loss of life support machines, civil failure of National Emergency Plan for Electricity – Dept unrest, no alarms, street lighting, gas electricity of Energy & Climate Change heating, rail transport, water supplies network. and mobile telecommunications etc. Northern Powergrid Major Incident Backup generators available for limited Management Plan time for individual business and Northern Powergrid emergency service in some instances.

H58 Severe Wildfires Severe wildfire spreading over an area 2 3 High NFRS provides comprehensive training to its Reinforce contacts and Oct 14 of 1500 hectares at an urban-rural personnel and works closely with the rural collaborative working with local interface and lasting for 7 to 10 days. community. It has established a wildfire group and national stakeholders. At any one time during the incident which includes the FRS, Land managers and Maintenance of training provision period, a fire front covering 20 local and national agencies. Preparedness and developing further

hectares will burn and be likely to activities have included the provision of understanding of the wildfire ice demonstrate extreme fire behaviour, comprehensive fire plans for most high risk environment for FRS operational with a further 100 hectares of locations within Northumberland. Specialist personnel and partner agencies. vegetation smouldering with the risk of fire fighting equipment is provided and a secondary burn-back. improved fire fighting techniques have been adopted. Full range of consequences • Economic impact – tens of millions • Fatalities – up to 10 • Casualties – between 50 and 100

• Social Disruption – severe local Serv Rescue Northumberland & Fire • Public Outrage – insignificant Public Anxiety – local, minor and short term

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Risk Ref

HL28 Fire /Explosion at a site Up to 1km around the site, causing up 2 3 High The TT and LT COMAH sites are regulated There may be other sites in this Oct 14 storing or processing to 15 fatalities and 200 casualties. jointly by HSE and EA acting as the CA. TT area that handle flammable flammable liquids, Fires and explosion resulting from loss sites are required to demonstrate safe substances – but they are not solids and gases. of containment and ignition of operation through a safety report. The site is encompassed by the COMAH flammable liquid in storage, or subject to planned inspection regime which regime and they are not required flammable liquid/vapour in process. samples on site control measures and to formally notify the inventory focuses on the worst case events. LT sites are held. Such premises are subject subject to an inspection regime which to HSW Act. Local knowledge samples the on site control measures. will be required to identify such

sites and generic plans should be The worst case events arise from TT COMAH in place to deal with incidents at

sites with specific on site and off site such sites. & Fire emergency plans in place. There is a legal requirement under COMAH for such plans to Fire and Rescue Services have be regularly tested and exercised. generic or specific plans for sub COMAH / Notification of TT COMAH sites are required to provide Installations Handling Hazardous information on the substances held, and what Substances (NIHHS) sites. to do in an emergency to the local population. The planning for the significant events should cover the moderate events.

Following the Buncefield explosion and fire a response programme team has been Executive Health and Safety reviewing all aspects of safety at fuel storage depots, along with planning issues. The team has identified a series of improvements, set out in the PSLG report, which is in process of being rolled out at these types of installations. The improvements also reduce the risk to the environment.

H17 Storms and Gales Storm force winds affecting most of a 3 3 High Procedure Local Authority Emergency Management Multi agency training via Oct 14 region for at least 6 hours. Most inland, s to arrangements exercises. lowland areas experience mean mitigate speeds in excess of 55 mph with gusts the effects Rest/reception centre plans in excess of 85 mph. Up to 50 fatalities of storms and 500 casualties. and gales. Northumbria Major Incident protocol

First notification of this event will come from the Met Office, probably as an Early Warning

within the National Severe Weather Warnings Meteorological Office Service (NSWWS)

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H25 Animal Health - The most serious disease in this 3 3 High Measures Defra Contingency Plan for Exotic Diseases of None Identified Oct 14 Outbreak of non- category is FMD (foot and mouth to prevent Animals (GB wide) zoonotic notifiable disease) which drives the risk and spread of animal disease (e.g. outcome descriptions. disease. North Region Infectious Animal Disease FMD, Classical Swine Response Plan (Plan owned by Regional Fever, Bluetongue A realistic worst case scenario might Resilience forum) disease, Newcastle involve the culling and disposal up to 4 disease) million animals across GB with up to Individual local authorities response plans 2000 infected premises. (mainly based on LACORS generic contingency plans) For FMD the whole of Great Britain is likely to be declared a ‘control area’, Other orgns: restricting the movement of all Animal Health legislation requiring notification susceptible livestock unless licensed. of suspect disease and providing control powers, animals movements / Identification Disruption to rural communities, local legislation, legislation on treatment of animal economies and the environment. by-products e.g. waste food, imports control. Enforced by Animal Health / Defra in

Significant impact on farm incomes partnership with local authorities. and allied industries. For a major outbreak many rural industries, Local authority staff working on animal health including tourism will be affected, activities in the LRF region, some directly impacts on tourism believed to have funded by Defra under framework

been overstated in previous agreements. Provide education and advice, Animal Health assessments and current assessments monitor compliance with legislation, and work assess this Impact at £100 million. closely with Defra/ Animal Health staff on disease response. £400 million losses to the agriculture and food chain industry. Animal Health (executive agency of DEFRA) cover the North Region from different offices, Loss of disease free status resulting in one of them based at Newcastle upon Tyne. EU and third country import bans of Regulate certain activities with bearing on livestock and livestock products from animal disease risk. In a disease outbreak can susceptible animals. draw upon nationwide / international resource to respond to outbreaks. The major outbreak and realistic worst case scenarios are of much greater scale than that experienced in the most recent outbreak in 2007 but less than that experienced in 2001 due to changes in movement regimes and control policies.

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H26 Zoonotic notifiable The most serious disease in this 3 3 High Procedure Defra Contingency Plan for Exotic Diseases of None identified Oct 14 animal diseases (e.g. category is Highly Pathogenic Avian s to control Animals (GB wide) Highly Pathogenic Influenza which drives the risk and the spread Avian Influenza (HPAI), outcome descriptions, although all of disease. North Region Infectious Animal Disease rabies and West Nile these diseases can result in human Response Plan (Plan owned by Regional Virus). death: Resilience forum) AI is largely a disease of birds. Individual local authorities response plans The virus does not easily cross from (mainly based on LACORS generic birds to infect humans, although there contingency plans) is a theoretical risk of influenza virus re-assortment if people with seasonal Other orgns: flu become co-infected with AI. Animal Health legislation requiring notification of suspect disease and providing control Potential Human Threat (255 deaths powers, animal movements / Identification from 408 cases worldwide since Dec legislation, legislation on treatment of animal 2003-correct at 24th Feb 2009). by-products e.g. waste food, imports control e.g. quarantine. Enforced by Animal Health / A realistic worst case scenario might Defra in partnership with local authorities. involve the culling and disposal up to

30 million birds across GB. Local authority staff work on livestock animal health activities in the LRF region, some Loss of disease free status resulting in directly funded by Defra under framework EU and third country import bans on agreements. Provide education and advice, poultry and captive birds and livestock monitor compliance with legislation, and work products closely with Defra/ Animal Health staff on Animal Health disease response. Disruption to rural communities, local economies, tourism and the Animal Health (executive agency of DEFRA) environment. cover the North Region from different offices, one of them based at Newcastle upon Tyne. Economic impacts for a major Regulate certain activities with bearing on outbreak assessed at £60 million. animal disease risk. In a disease outbreak can draw upon nationwide / international resource The major outbreak and scenarios is of to respond to outbreaks. much greater scale than that experienced in any of the recent outbreak of AI in the UK, where the disease has been contained and has been limited to one or two infected premises plus associated contact premises.

For rabies, additional factor of potential involvement of domestic pets, resulting in widespread panic and abandonment of pet animals

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H48 Heat wave Daily maximum temperatures in 3 3 High Measures The National Heat Wave contingency plan has It is likely that some forewarning Oct 14 excess of 28C and minimum to prevent been prepared by the department of health, will be received from the Met temperatures in excess of 15C over / mitigate and adopted by departments with social Office means of monitoring and most of the region for at least 5 the effects services functions. distribution across consecutive days. Up to 1000 fatalities of a heat- Early warning systems are in place from the departments/agencies to be and 5000 casualties, mainly among wave. Met Office via the National Severe Weather identified. Consideration should the elderly. There could be disruption Warnings Service (NSWWS) and the Heat be given to how such a situation to power supply and transport Health Watch Service. This can be found at will be coordinated e.g. utilise an infrastructure. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/u adverse weather protocol? k/heat_health.html. In addition to this broadcasts are made to the There is a need to know in general public via television and radio. advance what information is Procedures are in place to manage the receipt likely to be issued by Central of issued Weather Warnings and ensure Government in the event of a immediate dissemination through relevant Heat Wave allowing local Local Authority Sections. responders to reinforce the Under the Water Act 2003 Water Undertakers information/messages e.g. via are to prepare a drought plan. websites, staff briefings etc. The DoH has produced media messages etc

to ensure that the general public are aware of Meteorolo gical Office what actions to take and are likely to repeat these during a Heat Wave. In addition agencies have their own major incident plans, which would mobilise additional resources if required. Individual Organisations business continuity arrangements should consider the potential effects of a heat wave e.g. the effect on cat 1 responders when carrying out normal duties, working times, issue of and practicality of refreshments and PPE. H57 Large scale public Large scale outbreaks of disorder in 3 3 High LA Control of planned protests Training of specialist staff Oct 14 disorder multiple locations concurrently, within a single city over a number of days. Police Major Incident Plan, Mobilisation plan, Disorder involves criminal activity in trained public order officers. ice

nature in urban areas with satellite Pol

disorder in suburbs triggered by Northumbria existing community tensions.

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HL3 Industrial Accident - Localised small toxic release. Up to 3 3 High The TT and LT COMAH sites are regulated There may be other sites in this Oct 14 Toxic Release 1km from site, causing up to 10 jointly by HSE and EA acting as the CA. TT area that handle toxic fatalities and up to 100 casualties. sites are required to demonstrate safe substances – but they are not operation through a safety report. The site is encompassed by the COMAH subject to planned inspection regime which regime and they are not required samples on site control measures and to formally notify the inventory focuses on the worst case events. LT sites are held. Such premises are subject utive subject to an inspection regime which to HSW Act. Local knowledge samples the on site control measures. will be required to identify such sites and generic plans should be These events arise from TT COMAH sites with in place to deal with incidents at specific on site and off site emergency plans in such sites. place. There is a legal requirement under COMAH for such plans to be regularly tested and exercised. Exec Health and Safety TT COMAH sites are required to provide information on the substances held, and what to do in an emergency to the local population.

HL14b Transport - Hazardous The risk to persons and the 3 3 High Procedure Local Authority Major Incident plans None identified. Oct 14 Goods (Roads) environment (built and natural) is s to directly related to the materials prevent / Since the Carriage of Dangerous Goods and involved e.g. toxic and long-term mitigate use of transportable Pressure Equipment effects of chemicals, radioactive transport Regulations 2004, the carriage of dangerous materials, etc. of fuel / goods by rail within the UK is required to Area would require evacuating up to 1- explosives comply with the International Carriage of km radius depending on substances accidents. Dangerous Goods by Rail, commonly known involved. Roads and access routes as RID (Reglement Concernant le Transport impassable for a time. Emergency International Ferrovaire des Marchantises access into/out of large populated Dangereuses) areas difficult or impossible. Insignificant impact on local economy - Hazardous Material incident capability in Up to 30 fatalities and up to 20 each FRS to deal with emergency phase of casualties within vicinity of incident. accident/explosion. - Local authority Major Incident Plans Potential release of up to 30 tonnes of - New Dimension Incident Response Units Fire and Rescue Service T and Rescue & W Fire liquid fuel into local environment, with Mass Decontamination capability. watercourses etc. Large quantities of fire fighting media (foam) would impact on environment

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H18 Low temperatures and Snow falling and lying over most of the 4 3 High Early Council: Multi-agency training via Oct 14 Heavy Snow area for at least one week. warnings Local authority Emergency Management exercises. After an initial fall of snow, there is and Arrangements Awareness raising among those further snowfall on and off for at least 7 procedure Rest/Reception Centre Plans most likely to be isolated. Need days. Most lowland areas experience s to Northumbria Major Incident Plans to clarify how information on

some falls in excess of 10cms a depth mitigate Winter maintenance plan published annually facilities such as school closures of snow of 30cm and a period of at the effects by highways department of Local Authority is coordinated. Ensure that those least 7 consecutive days with daily of low who require the winter mean temperature below -3C. temperatur Other organisations: maintenance plans (e.g. Up to 30 fatalities and thousands of es and First notification of this event, up to 5 days Emergency Services Control casualties, mainly among the elderly. heavy ahead, will come from the Met Office, probably Rooms) have access to it. snow. as an Early Alert within the National Severe Encourage good neighbour Weather Warnings Service (NSWWS). schemes - especially amongst Met Office prepare for winter campaign vulnerable communities. Meteorological Office Northern Powergrid has Established Business Continuity / Recovery Plans Adverse Weather plans. Agency major incident plans, utilities loss of service plans

H54 Disruption to aviation Volcanic ash cloud causing closures of 4 3 High Council: None at present Oct 14 as a consequence of parts or all of UK airspace for periods Business continuity plans volcanic ash up to fifteen days in a three month Other organisations:

eruption period. Europe as well as the • Volcanic ash advisories issued by the UK could potentially be affected Met Office • London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) • Airspace zoning systems • Continuing research by BGS, the Met

Office, Icelandic Met Office and other Newcastle Airport organisations • Business Continuity Plans

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H56 Severe space weather Two coastal electrical sub stations 4 3 High Category 1 & 2 responder Business Continuity None identified Oct 14 – wide range of impacts serving approximately 100,000 planning and management arrangements including power failure, customers each are severely damaged telecommunications and unable to supply electricity for two Other organisation business continuity plans failure, disruption to or more months. Consumers in these aviation and a wide areas would experience an initial loss Forecasting capabilities being developed range of knock-on of supply for up to half of this period through the Met Office. impacts resulting from (i.e. one month or more) until the local solar phenomena. Distribution Network Operators and Daily Hazard Assessment produced by the National Grid could arrange for Met Office Hazard Centre in association with

alternative supplies such as the UK Natural Hazards Partnership, includes interconnection to other sub stations, advice on any potential space weather events or deployment of mobile electricity and possible terrestrial impacts – available on generation. Hazard Manager.

Temporary short-term (1hr) nationwide losses of wireless systems including mobile phones, internet and other related services. Meteorological Office Increase in error rate in ground-based unprotected digital control systems, which are ubiquitous in modern technology (computers, internet systems, mobile hones etc.), for the duration of the storm. Impact upon civilian mobile satellite communication and satellite broadcasting systems. Terrestrial broadcasting should not be directly affected. HL4 Major pollution of Pollution incident impacting upon 4 3 High Procedure COMAH and EPC permitting controls Joint risk assessment (e.g. FRS Oct 14

surface waters and surface waters (inland and coastal s to and EA) groundwater waters) and groundwater. For prevent / Petroleum Licensing Regulations example, could be caused by chemical mitigate Better regulation of 'sub-COMAH' spillage or release of large quantity of pollution Fire & Rescue Service inspections under sites untreated sewage leading to persistent incidents. F&RS Act 2004 and/or extensive effect on water quality, major damage to aquatic Local Authority Part B control measures ecosystems, closure of potable

abstraction point(s), major impact on BASIS inspections of agrochemical stores Environment Agency amenity (i.e. tourism) value, serious impact on human health.

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HL19 local fluvial flooding A sustained period of rainfall extending 4 3 High Measures • Northumbria Multi-agency Flood Plan July 14 over two weeks, perhaps combined to prevent • Northumbria LRF Telecommunications Plan None identified with snow melt, resulting in flash / mitigate • Met Office National Severe Weather flooding and steadily rising river levels the effects Warnings and adverse weather policy over regions. Localised flooding of 100 of major • Environment Agency Local Flood Warning to 1,000 properties for 2-7 days. Up to localised Plans for each council area 5 fatalities and 50 casualties. Up to fluvial • Environment Agency flood warning service; 5000 people evacuated. Up to 200 flooding. river and rainfall monitoring network; Flood people stranded over a large area and Advisory service. in need of rescue. There would be • Environment Agency flood defences and some impact on minor roads and some

watercourse maintenance programme. A roads and trunk roads impassable • Fire and Rescue Water Incident Managers for a time. Some main rail lines may (WIMS) for advice and assessment. need to be closed for a week (for • Fire and Rescue and Environment Agency repairs etc). Most waterways would be High Volume Pumps closed to traffic because of strong • Flood Rescue Concept of Operations 2011. currents and high water levels. Impact • on infrastructure includes water Northumbrian Water Incident Plan • damage, road and bridge damage. Community owned flood warden groups in Sediment movement and Northumbria LRF, including at Morpeth, Environment Agency contamination of local water supplies. Ponteland, Haydon Bridge, Rothbury, Localised loss of essential services Blackhall Mill, Netherton, Hepscott (Flood Action Group). Flood Warden groups may (gas, electricity & telecoms) to be established in Corbridge in the near 5,000 for up to 14 days. Up to 250 future. people needing assistance with • Joint respondent training on Hazard sheltering for up to 12 months. Manager Substantial disruption within a • Sector resilience plans county for 7-14 days. Significant • Nexus Business Continuity plans debris and pollutants clear-up needed.

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HL20 Localised, extremely Heavy localised rainfall in steep valley 4 3 High Measures • Northumbria Multi-agency Flood Plan Oct 14 hazardous fluvial catchments leading to extremely to prevent • Northumbria LRF Telecommunications Plan Improved forecasting modelling – flooding (flash flooding) hazardous flash flooding (e.g. high / mitigate • Met Office National Severe Weather ongoing technology in forecasting. velocities and depths). Likely that no the effects Warnings and adverse weather policy

flood defences in place. Probably no of major • Environment Agency Local Flood Warning flood warning service available / or localised Plans for each council area suddenness of event means timely fluvial flash • Environment Agency flood warning service; flood warnings are not possible. flooding. river and rainfall monitoring network; Flood Flooding of up to 200 properties. Advisory service. • Environment Agency flood defences and watercourse maintenance programme. • Fire and Rescue Water Incident Managers (WIMS) for advice and assessment. • Fire and Rescue and Environment Agency High Volume Pumps Environment Agency • Flood Rescue Concept of Operations 2011. • Northumbrian Water Incident Plan • Community owned flood warden groups in Northumbria LRF, including at Morpeth and Rothbury. • Community Flood Plans HL22 Building collapse Building collapse causing persons to 4 3 High Measures Local Authority Major Incident Plans None identified Oct 14 be trapped, road closures and to prevent disruptions to local utilities. Possible / mitigate FRS has Urban Search And Rescue (USAR) release of hazardous materials the effects capability and USAR Subject Matter Advisors (asbestos etc) of building (SMAs) for advice and support. collapse. NEAS have USAR capability within the Service Hazardous Area Response Team (HART) and would deploy as required to work alongside FRS USAR personnel T and Rescue & W Fire

H40 Industrial Technical No notice loss of significant 5 3 High • LRF TSG Plan is in place to provide advice • Network service providers to Oct 14 failure - telecommunications infrastructure in a and information in order to reduce impact of make contact with LRF’s to telecommunications localised incident such as a fire, flood any outage of service by this infrastructure ensure that adequate and or gas incident; or other accident. locally, regionally or nationally. proportionate planning and • Loss of telecommunications for up to Each agency has their own business preparation is being taken by 100,000 people for up to 72 hours. continuity plans and mitigations in place for the LRF member agencies. reducing the impact of such an incident. LA’s to include this scenario as a Significant disaster and continuity plans risk in their advice to local businesses regarding business processes in place within the Group Telecoms Sub telecommunications industry continuity planning.

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H46 Industrial Accident and Up to 10 fatalities and serious ill 5 3 High • North East Infectious Diseases Plan V1.0 Local Authority (DCC) to have Oct 14 Environmental Pollution health, or offsite impact resulting in up December 2010 information readily available to - to 1000 casualties. • HSE Major Incident Response plan – the public / businesses via their Biological substance invoked for large scale events. HSE will website to encourage good release from an also participate in local multi agency practice. unrelated work activity response to target source and can take • Local Authority working with (legionella) at a variety enforcement action to prevent operation, or HPA to update document of sites ranging from improve controls of systems if necessary. following unitisation. industrial to residential Targeting in the event of an outbreak will homes. be based on intelligence held by local authority registers – so important that they are kept up to date (as is the case here). All sites are regulated by either HSE or the relevant local authority dependant upon the sector, where compliance with Legionella controls are checked. HSE inspect industrial premises and the Local Authorities inspect the leisure / hospitality & retail sectors. HSE has limited resources and inspections are carried out in accordance with government policy. Therefore inspections are carried out on a sample basis so it is possible that some sites may go without an inspection for several years. HSE has enforcement powers to require improvements. Following a number of recent cases HSE is developing an inspection project to review standards and this is ongoing during 2013- 2014 • Sites are required to notify existence of

cooling towers to the relevant local Executive Health and Safety authority. Local authorities to maintain a register of cooling towers. (NB this is particularly important intelligence to allow for a rapid response in the event of an incident) • Well known disease with a legal requirement to ensure appropriate control measures in place at premises • Control & prevention of the disease is through prevention of proliferation of the organism by maintaining cleanliness of systems and/or treatment of the source of infection i.e. contaminated water system. Also by prevention of aerosol formation where possible to reduce spread of potentially contaminated mist. Local Authority planning / building departments regulate new builds to have correct measures in place to mitigate the disease.

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H11 Accidental exposure to • Up to 5 fatalities and 100 1 4 Medium Decontam- • Incidents will be managed to agree incident National work is not yet Oct 14 radioactive material contaminated people requiring ination of response plans with escalation to strategic completed in relation to radiation from incorrectly handled radiation monitoring/medical people and coordination as needed. monitoring following accidental or disposed of sources assessment. the • Stringent UK/EU regulation in relation to exposure. Responsible • The perceived threat of illness that environ- orphan sources organisation in relation to on the general public will believe they ment • Legislation and monitoring in relation to going population monitoring and are threatened with is priority medical sources follow up still to be clarified management issue • NAIR support in place following abolition of PCTs. • For those who are actually • PHE expert support available for acute contaminated (internally) there is a incidents with direct advice to ambulance possible increase in later years of service. cancer type illness. Long term Health England Public follow up may be required. May be significant issues in relation to clean up/disposal of material H24 Outbreak of a serious An outbreak of a very serious 1 4 Medium Response Council: None identified Oct 14 infectious disease infectious disease (such as MERs – Plan • Prevention is by current food and water sufficient to trigger a CoV), or a very large outbreak of a (regional and other related legislation and the actions major incident response serious infectious disease (such as plan being of many agencies in control of local by NHS or PHE. Legionellosis or meningitis) which developed) incidents. could lead to a number of deaths and would place major pressure on NHS, Other organisations: PHE and Local Authority resources. • Specialist infectious disease service at Scale is scenario dependent.. Newcastle Hospitals. All NHS trusts have infection control procedures and access to expert advice on rare diseases. • The NHS has surge and escalation plans • Plans in place for response to certain infectious disease threats. • PHE provides local and national advice on

outbreak control. Health England Public • The SHA/HPA document North East Infectious Diseases Plan (2010) is being revised as a joint plan: PHE/NHS England Area Teams Infectious disease major incident plan. Will be finalised by January 2014. This outlines risks and actions for specific diseases.

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H42 Transport Accident - Major Passenger vessel flooding due 1 4 Medium Procedure Council: None identified Oct 14 Maritime to structural failure, collision or s to • LA Mass Fatality Plan/Temporary Mortuary grounding resulting in full or partial prevent / Plan Rapid accidental evacuation with 500 fatalities and up to mitigate • sinking of a passenger 1000 casualties, potentially with passenger Other organisations: vessel in, or close to blockage of major sea-lane or port shipping • MCA Major Incident Plan, MCA pollution UK waters accidents. National Contingency Plan. • Vessel ISM, SMS plans. International Convention on standards of training, certification and watchkeeping. (STCW) 1978 • Merchant Shipping Act 1995/1997. IMDG code. International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (colregs) 1972. The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) 1974. Merchant Shipping (Prevention of Oil Pollution) Regulations 1983. Merchant Shipping (Control of Pollution by Noxious Liquid Substances in Bulk) Regulations Agency Coastguard Maritime and 1987. • Convention for suppression of unlawful acts against the safety of maritime navigation 1988 Port Contingency plans. Oil preparedness plans. HL22a Sports Stadium: Mass crowd movements if not 1 4 Medium Procedure Local Authority Major Incident Plans None Identified Oct 14 crowd behaviour. Mass controlled can result in crush injuries s to reduce movement of persons in and, in fire, lead to fire related deaths risks of FRS have Urban Search and rescue (USAR) fire or otherwise incidents capability and USAR subject matter advisors resulting in risk of fire at sports (SMAs) for advice and support and crush injuries. stadiums. NEAS have USAR capability within the Hazardous Area Response Team (HART) and would deploy as required to work alongside FRS USAR personnel

Safety certificates for sports grounds over 10,000

Service T and Rescue & W Fire

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HL34 Fire, flooding, stranding Outbreak of a major fire on board a 1 4 Medium Procedure Council: None identified Oct 14 or collision involving a large passenger vessel such as the s to • LA Mass Fatality Plan/Temporary Mortuary passenger vessel in, or King of Scandinavia or similar, with up prevent / Plan close to UK waters or to 2000 persons on board, on passage mitigate • on inland waterways, to or from the River Tyne. Or the the effects Other organisations: leading to the ships flooding, stranding or collision of a of a such • MCA Major Incident Plan, MCA pollution

evacuation or partial similar sized vessel or visiting Cruise an National Contingency Plan. evacuation at sea.. liner. The incident resulting in the accident • Vessel ISM, SMS plans. International need for full or partial evacuation.

Convention on standards of training, gency certification and watchkeeping. (STCW) 1978 • Merchant Shipping Act 1995/1997. IMDG code. International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (colregs) 1972. The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) 1974. Merchant Shipping (Prevention of Oil Pollution) Regulations 1983. Merchant Shipping (Control of Pollution by Noxious Liquid Substances in Bulk) Regulations A Coastguard Maritime and 1987. • Convention for suppression of unlawful acts against the safety of maritime navigation 1988 Port Contingency plans. Oil preparedness plans.

HL37 Transport Accident – Release of significant quantities of 1 4 Medium Procedure • MCA Major Incident Plan, MCA pollution None identified Oct 14 Maritime. hazardous chemicals/materials as a s to National Contingency Plan. Release of significant result of a major shipping accident prevent / • Vessel ISM, SMS plans. International quantities of hazardous resulting in significant mitigate Convention on standards of training, chemicals/materials as environmental/ecological damage. the effects certification and watchkeeping. (STCW)

a result of a major of a such 1978 shipping accident. an accident • Merchant Shipping Act 1995/1997. IMDG code. International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (colregs) 1972. The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) 1974. Merchant Shipping (Prevention of Oil Pollution) Regulations 1983. Merchant Shipping (Control of Pollution by Noxious Liquid Substances in Bulk) Regulations 1987.

• Convention for suppression of unlawful acts Agency Coastguard Maritime and against the safety of maritime navigation 1988 • Port Contingency plans. Oil preparedness plans.

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H7 Explosion at a high Local to site causing up to 200 1 3 Medium Structural Local Authority Pipeline emergency plans are None identified Oct 14 pressure gas pipeline. fatalities and up to 200 casualties resilience in place for high pressure gas transmission

Specific lines, under the pipeline safety regulations. and Safety Health

It is assumed that there plans. Emergency plans are regularly reviewed, Executive are a number of high exercised and tested (every 3 years) HL30 Local to site causing up to 100 1 3 Medium Oct 14 pressure natural gas LRF Major Incident Plan v2 fatalities and up to 100 casualties and transmission pipelines The pipelines are owned and operated by a crossing the region. national company, with emergency response The hazard arises from teams available to deal with scenarios the high pressure and identified & exercised every 3 years the possibility of fire Pipeline safety regulations are regulated by and explosion from a HSE. release if a pipeline Pipeline Safety Regulations apply to operators failed or was damaged. of pipelines which set safety requirements for The scenario considers design construction & management of a release point close to pipelines. The regulations are enforced by the a populated (urban HSE. area). There would also be an impact on the environment, including possibly persistent

widespread impact on Executive Health and Safety air quality.

More information on the location of pipelines could be obtained from NGN H15 Maritime Pollution • Grounding of a large tanker 1 3 Medium Procedure • MCA Major Incident Plan, MCA pollution None identified Oct 14 rupturing cargo tanks resulting in s to National Contingency Plan. Spillage of up to large spillage of crude oil. mitigate • Vessel ISM, SMS plans. International 100,000 tonnes of the effects Convention on standards of training, crude oil into the sea, • Collision between two vessels with of a certification and watchkeeping. (STCW) polluting up to 200km of at least one carrying large spillage. 1978 Coastline. quantities of crude oil cargo • Merchant Shipping Act 1995/1997. IMDG resulting in major pollution. code. International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (colregs) 1972. The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) 1974. Merchant Shipping (Prevention of Oil Pollution) Regulations 1983. Merchant Shipping (Control of Pollution by Noxious Liquid Substances in Bulk) Regulations 1987.

• Convention for suppression of unlawful acts Agency Coastguard Maritime and against the safety of maritime navigation 1988 Port Contingency plans. Oil preparedness plans.

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H39 Failure of water Loss of or non availability for drinking, 1 3 Medium Measures Northumbrian Water: Consultation with local authorities Oct 14 infrastructure (water of the piped water supply for up to to prevent - Raw Water Monitoring and Public Health England treatment works) or 50,000 people, for more than 24 hours / mitigate - Raw Water storage upstream of WTW regarding sensitivity of vulnerable accidental and up to 3 days the loss of - Continuous on line monitoring of treatment people and premises. contamination with a potable processes Liaison with local authorities for the non toxic contamination water - Ability to re-zone supply areas.

distribution of alternative supplies. supply. Within the Water Industry Act 1991, the Liaison with police over potential The Security and Emergency Measures Direction: public order issues and safety of water company staff when provision 1998 requires water companies to ensure that deploying alternative supplies. of plans are in place to maintain essential water Liaison with fire service regarding alternative supplies at all times, including a civil fire fighting capability. supplies of emergency and any event threatening national water. security. Under this legislation companies must plan to distribute water by alternative means and in the event of a failure of the Northumbrian Water Ltd piped supply, aim to provide at least 10 litres per head per day (20 litres per head per day after day 4 of a no water incident) to all those affected until the supply is restored.

H44 Reservoir (capacity > Collapse without warning resulting in 1 3 Medium Procedure - Environment Agency regulation of all Northumbrian Water is continuing Oct 14 25,000 cubic metres) almost instantaneous flooding. s to reservoir undertakers in accordance to develop the remaining specific dam failure / collapse Significant movement of debris mitigate with the Reservoirs Act 1975 on-site plans for the reservoirs (e.g. Fontburn (including vehicles) and sediment. flooding. - Reservoir supervision by Supervising (>25,000 cubic metres) within its

Impounding Reservoir Complete destruction of some Engineer (overseen by Environment ownership and Kielder Reservoir) residential and commercial properties Emergenc Agency) and serious damage to up to 500 y Inundation exercise properties. Up to a 1000 properties arrangeme could be flooded. Up to 20 fatalities nts to Northumbrian Water – specific and generic on- Agency currently reviewing risk and up to 200 casualties. Up to 50 respond to site response plans designation of all Large Raised missing persons and people stranded. a major Reservoirs in the LRF area to Hazardous recovery amongst reservoir Generic Reservoir Flooding Off-site Plan determine which are considered

collapsed infrastructure and debris. incident. as high risk Environment Agency Utility services to homes and business is lost. Up to 200 people need EA inundation maps temporary accommodation for 2-18 months. Generic LRF Mass inundation arrangement.

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H49 Industrial technical Loss of or non-availability for drinking, 1 3 Medium Raw water monitoring. Consultation with local authorities Oct 14 failure - Loss of drinking of the piped water supply, for a Raw water storage upstream of WTW. and health protection agency

water supplies due a population of up to 350,000 for more Continuous on-line monitoring of treatment regarding sensitivity of vulnerable major accident affecting than 24 hours and up to two weeks. processes. people and premises. infrastructure. Duplicate production lines. Liaison with local authorities for Ability to re-zone supply areas. the distribution of alternative Storage within the distribution system supplies. downstream of the WTW. Liaison with police over potential public order issues and safety of water company staff when deploying alternative supplies. Northumbrian Water Liaison with fire service regarding fire fighting capability. H50 Drought Periodic water supply interruptions 1 3 Medium Northumbrian Water: Identify the impact of private Oct 14 affecting 30,000 businesses in the - all UK Water Companies are required to abstractors on the water system Northumbria area for up to 10 months. produce Water Resources plans for the

Emergency Drought orders in place Water Regulators Contingency plans for the loss of authorising rota cuts in supply - Defra Water Supply and Regulation, the private supplies. Ltd according to needs of priority users as Drinking Water Inspectorate and OFWat. directed by Secretary of State - Ability to re-zone supply areas from adjacent areas not affected by water shortages. Northumbrian Water HL8 Transport Accident – Fire, flooding, stranding or collision 1 3 Medium Procedure Council: None identified Oct 14 Maritime involving a passenger vessel in or s to • LA Mass Fatality Plan/Temporary Mortuary Fire, flooding, stranding close to UK waters or on inland prevent / Plan or collision involving a waterways, leading to the ship's mitigate • passenger vessel in, or evacuation. passenger Other organisations: close to UK waters or shipping • MCA Major Incident Plan, MCA pollution

on inland waterways, accidents. National Contingency Plan. leading to the ships • Vessel ISM, SMS plans. International evacuation. Convention on standards of training, certification and watchkeeping. (STCW) 1978 • Merchant Shipping Act 1995/1997. IMDG code. International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (colregs) 1972. The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) 1974. Merchant Shipping (Prevention of Oil Pollution) Regulations 1983. Merchant Shipping (Control of Pollution by Noxious Liquid Substances in Bulk) Regulations Agency Coastguard Maritime and 1987. • Convention for suppression of unlawful acts against the safety of maritime navigation 1988 Port Contingency plans. Oil preparedness plans.

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Risk Ref

HL9 Transport Accident - Accident involving one commercial 1 3 Medium Site • Emergency and Business Recovery Plans None identified Oct 14 Aviation accident aircraft on landing or take-off causing specific in place – liaison with external bodies re up to 370 casualties (based on largest plans. emergency planning aircraft using Ncl airport) • On site Fire Service • In-house Air Traffic Control service • Regular exercises and drill for coping with such an event • Runway Incursion Team • FOD prevention programme • Airfield Inspection and maintenance regime • Airfield markings and signage maintenance programme • Wildlife Hazard Management Scheme • Airfield Driver Competence Scheme

• Vehicle Tracking Systems Newcastle AirportInternational • Surface movement radar • Managed drainage system with separators

HL14c Transport - Hazardous There is the risk of hazardous 1 3 Medium Procedure - Local authority Major Incident Plans None identified. Oct 14 Goods (Rail) materials being released through s to Since the Carriage of Dangerous Goods and accidents or poorly maintained prevent / use of transportable Pressure Equipment Risk of explosion, equipment. The risk to persons and mitigate Regulations 2004, the carriage of dangerous toxic/radioactive liquid/ the environment (built and natural) is transport goods by rail within the UK is required to gas/solid directly related to the materials of comply with the International Carriage of involved e.g. toxic and long-term fuel/explos Dangerous Goods by Rail, commonly known effects of chemicals, radioactive ives as RID (Reglement Concernant le Transport materials, etc. accidents. International Ferrovaire des Marchantises Dangereuses

- Hazardous Material incident capability in each FRS to deal with emergency phase of incident.

Fire and Rescue Service T and Rescue & W Fire New Dimension Incident Response Units with Mass Decontamination capability.

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Risk Ref

HL14d Transport - Hazardous There is the risk of hazardous 1 3 Medium Procedure Local authority Major Incident Plans None identified Oct 14 Goods (Air) materials being released through s to accidents or poorly maintained prevent / The International Civil Aviation Authority Risk of damage to equipment. The risk to persons and mitigate (ICAO) regulates the transport of hazardous packaging allowing the the environment (built and natural) is transport goods by air. This covers such areas as: release of directly related to the materials etc. of fuel / toxic/radioactive The amounts carried on aircraft are explosives - Hazardous Material incident capability in liquid/solid materials typically small, however radioactive accidents. each FRS to deal with emergency phase of materials are also carried. It is not incident. expected that pressurised gases are - Identification and declaration to the airline normally carried on aircraft. - Use of proper sturdy packaging materials - Clear labelling - Correct handling techniques and stowage - New Dimension Incident Response Units Fire and Rescue Service T and Rescue & W Fire wit Mass Decontamination capability.

HL14e Transport - Hazardous There is the risk of hazardous 1 3 Medium Procedure Local authority Major Incident Plans None identified Oct 14 Goods (Shipping) materials being released through s to accidents or poorly maintained prevent / The transport of hazardous goods by shipping Risk of explosion, equipment. The risk to persons and mitigate is managed by the International Maritime toxic/radioactive the environment (built and natural) is transport Organisation through the International liquid/gas/solid directly related to the materials etc. of fuel / Maritime dangerous Goods Code. There are materials release. explosives also separate codes for Bulk Chemicals and accidents. International Gas Carriers. - Hazardous Material incident capability in each FRS to deal with emergency phase of incident. - New Dimension Incident Response Units with Mass Decontamination capability - NRFS training to become designated Fire and Rescue Service T and Rescue & W Fire responder status for ‘at sea’ incidents.

HL23 Structural - Bridge Immediate hazard of persons falling 1 3 Medium Measures Local Authority Major Incident Plans None identified Oct 14 collapse. from collapsing structure or being hit to prevent FRS rescue capability from falling debris. / mitigate USAR capability.

Persons becoming trapped in the effects NEAS have USAR capability within the collapsed structure or vehicles. of building Hazardous Area Response Team (HART) and nd Rescue nd Rescue Severe transport congestion and collapse. would deploy as required to work alongside

limited emergency services availability. FRS USAR personnel. Service Potential for some services to be disrupted. Police Traffic management capability in

conjunction with Highways Agency Tyne T & W Fire a Tunnel and local councils.

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Risk Ref

HL56 Metro train derailment, Possible loss of life – up to 30 fatalities 1 3 Medium Procedure • Low speed rail operation, rolling stock None identified Nov 14 collision / fire/ explosion and up to 200 major injuries. Loss of s to breaking characteristics, modern rolling on train or station. Rail infrastructure/ service prevent / stock design (albeit with low mitigate crashworthiness), inherent railway the effects engineering safety devices such as train

of a such stop and signalling systems together with an approved safety management system accident regime point to a low potential for Nexus occurrence. • Low fire loading due to non-combustible materials inside train saloon. • Maintenance procedures in place to prevent incident.

SHL99 Military Aviation Causing from 1 to 20 fatalities with any 1 3 Medium Procedure Control of military aviation is such that any None identified Oct 14 Accident survivors suffering from disruptive s to military aviation accident is likely to be in open injuries that may have long term prevent / countryside. medical implications. mitigate the effects Requiring mobilisation of resources to secure of a and make safe the crash site. military aviation Air ForceRoyal accident. H28a Large scale public Tens of thousands of highly motivated 2 2 Medium Measures - Officers trained to respond to public None identified Oct 14 protest. protesters, including a hard core of to prevent disorder 2,000 protestors, causing physical / mitigate - Where possible, engagement with protest damage, requiring a nationally the effects organisers is facilitated coordinated police response. of Large - Major incident plan; mobilisation plan, scale community tension monitors public

protest. Northumbria Police H38 Technical failure of Catastrophic accident destroying all 2 2 Medium Business Category 1 & 2 responder Business Continuity None identified Oct 14 upstream (offshore) parts of an upstream facility and in the Continuity plans oil/gas facility, gas worst case, taking months or more to measures import pipeline terminal, restore normal levels of service. This of all LRF Multi agency coordination plan or Liquefied Natural potentially could result in up to 11% dependent Gas (LNG) import loss of gas supply to UK which could organisatio National Emergency Plan for Electricity reception facility leading impact on power generation if demand ns Electricity Supply Emergency Code to a disruption in were high. As 40% of power is upstream oil and gas generated by gas fired stations then a Northern Powergrid Major Incident production. reduction in generation might be felt Management Plan possibly prompting three hour rota electricity cuts. Downstream oil would Northern Powergrid not be immediately so adversely affected given alternative means of supply.

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Risk Ref

HL7 Fire /Explosion at a site 1km around site, 20 casualties Fires 2 2 Medium Site The TT and LT COMAH sites are regulated There may be other sites in this Oct 14 storing or processing and explosion resulting from loss of specific jointly by HSE and EA acting as the CA. TT area that handle flammable flammable liquids, containment and ignition of flammable plans. sites are required to demonstrate safe substances – but they are not solids and gases. liquid in storage, or flammable operation through a safety report. The site is encompassed by the COMAH liquid/vapour in process. subject to planned inspection regime which regime and they are not required samples on site control measures and to formally notify the inventory focuses on the worst case events. LT sites are held. Such premises are subject subject to an inspection regime which to HSW Act. Local knowledge samples the on site control measures. will be required to identify such sites and generic plans should be The worst case events arise from TT COMAH in place to deal with incidents at sites with specific on site and off site such sites. emergency plans in place. There is a legal requirement under COMAH for such plans to be regularly tested and exercised. Fire and Rescue Services have generic or specific plans for sub TT COMAH sites are required to provide COMAH / Notification of information on the substances held, and what Installations Handling Hazardous to do in an emergency to the local population. Substances (NIHHS) sites.

The planning for the significant events should cover the moderate events. Executive Health and Safety

Following the Buncefield explosion and fire a response programme team has been reviewing all aspects of safety at fuel storage depots, along with planning issues. The team has identified a series of improvements, set out in the PSLG report, which is in process of being rolled out at these types of installations. The improvements also reduce the risk to the environment. HL10 Transport accidents - Multiple vehicle incident causing up to 2 2 Medium Procedure Northumbria specialist officers and driver None identified Oct 14

Local accident on 10 fatalities and up to 20 casualties s to improvement programme motorways and major (internal injuries, fractures, burns); prevent / trunk roads closure of lanes or carriageways mitigate LA response arrangements Police causing major disruption and delays. transport accidents. Northumbria HL11 Railway accident Up to 30 fatalities and up to 100 2 2 Medium Various Railways regulations and Acts and None identified at present Oct 14 casualties (fractures, internal injuries – safety control measures adopted by Network burns less likely). Possible loss of Rail and train operating companies. freight. Major disruption to rail line including possible closure of rail An independent body, the Rail Accident tunnel. Investigation Brand (RAIB) has been established to investigate the technical causes

of incidents. Network Rail

Local emergency services have guidance and procedures in regards to railway incidents.

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Risk Ref

HL31 Strategic Road Closure Closure of strategic road for more than 2 2 Medium Procedure Police Major Incident plan None identified Oct 14

12 hours causing severe congestion s to on alternative routes and restricted prevent / Severe weather plan access and movement of more than mitigate Police 1000 people. road LRF severe weather plan closures. Northumbria HL33 Rural incidents – Uncontrolled vegetation fires 2 2 Medium Procedure NFRS provides comprehensive training to its Reinforce contacts and Oct 14 wildfire potentially affecting large areas of the s to personnel and works closely with the rural collaborative working with local landscape prevent / community. It has established a wildfire group and national stakeholders.

mitigate which includes the FRS, Land managers and Maintenance of training provision and Fire the effects local and national agencies. Preparedness and developing further of Forest activities have included the provision of understanding of the wildfire or comprehensive fire plans for most high risk environment for FRS operational Moorland locations within Northumberland. Specialist personnel and partner agencies. Fire. fire fighting equipment is provided and Rescue Service improved fire fighting techniques have been adopted. Northumberland H29 Protest - Targeted Nationally co-ordinated protest that 3 2 Medium Measures – LRF Fuel Shortage plan None identified Oct 14 disruptive protest, e.g. could generate shortages of essential to prevent fuel protest. supplies, and lasts for up to 1 week / mitigate the effects

of targeted Police

disruptive Northumbria protest. H30 3 2 Medium None identified Oct 14 Emergency services: A series of strikes by fire fighters takes Council: • loss of emergency fire place in a number of fire and rescue Fire and Rescue Authority and Service and rescue cover authorities (>3), spread over a period Business Continuity Plans and warning and

because of industrial of two months, lasting up to 48 hours informing arrangements action each Other organisations: Service Business continuity plans by Category 1 and 2 responders

FireWear Rescue Tyne &

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Risk Ref

H35 Industrial action by key Network Rail Infrastructure Limited 3 2 Medium • The rail industry has tried and test strike • All Category 1 Responders Oct 14 Rail or London looks after all aspects of the railway plans should maintain generic Underground workers. infrastructure, including the tracks, • The railway would look to prioritise capabilities to manage their signaling systems, viaducts, tunnels, resources and likely to invoke the Key response to strikes for three Strike – key railway bridges and stations. London Route Strategy with concentration on or more days in accordance workers Underground looks after the operation keeping main lines running. with Business Continuity of the stations and trains operated on • Industry has close working relationship with arrangements, as a result of behalf of Transport for London (TfL). the respective trade unions. staff being unable to get to Maintenance of the assets is • Staff engagement strategies are operated their place of work. contracted to Tubelines for the Jubilee, by both Network Rail and London Northern and Piccadilly lines and to Underground in relation to staff terms and Metronet for all other lines. conditions of employment. Strike action affecting one or other of • Legislation in place: Heath and Safety at the two transport systems in operation Work (etc) Act 1974. in mainland Britain will have a varying - The Employment Act 1980. degree of impact, depending on which - The Employment Act 1988. elements of the systems are targeted - The Public Order Act 1986. for strike action (i.e. whether or not key - The Trade Union and Labour Relations workers fully engage in strike action or (Consolidation) Act 1992. not). In addition to this Unions would need to co-ordinate strike action Anti-Social Behaviour Act 2003 across both operating environments to create the biggest impact. It would have more impact if train operating staff from Train Operating Companies were also to join such industrial action. On Network Rail, due to the privatisation of the railways in 1993, Network Rail action by any single Train Operating Company would severely reduce the availability of services on particular lines, but it would be highly unlikely that all Train Operating Company staff would have cause to strike simultaneously and thereby potentially cause the threat description to be realized. Likewise, due to the differing systems of operation between London Underground and Network Rail, disputes would be extremely unlikely to be conjoined. Equally an issue is the need for both principle unions involved ASLEF and RMT would also need to strike simultaneously to have maximum impact. There is a number of staff who work for both London Underground and Network Rail who are not members of unions. However, it is unlikely that they could be expected to pass picketing, were a strike to be called.

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Risk Ref

H36 International disruption Major disruption (e.g. due to war, 3 2 Medium Measures Measures taken at a Governmental level. fuel exercise in 2014 Oct 14 to oil supply major political upheaval). The largest to prevent single chokepoint is the Strait of / mitigate National Fuel Plan

Risk Hormuz. Others include the Suez the effects Canal. Loss of up to 17.5 million of barrels per day to the global market for Internation

up to 1 month, corresponding to 20% al National

of worldwide production. Available disruption Assessment mitigation action leaves the oil market to oil From with a shortfall of around 4mb/d. supply.

H45 Technical failure of Shut down of the electricity supply 3 2 Medium Procedure Category 1 & 2 responder Business Continuity None identified Oct 14 electricity network. over an entire region, occurring during s to plans working hours and lasting 24 hours. prevent shut down LRF multi agency coordination plan Technical failure of electricity network of the rn Powergrid Powergrid rn due to operational error or bad electricity Northern Powergrid Major Incident weather causing damage to the supply. Management plan

system. Northe HL21 Land Movement Roads and access routes impassable 3 2 Medium Measures Council: None identified (tremors and for a time. Emergency access into/out to prevent • Fire and Rescue Authority and Service Oct 14 landslides) of large populated areas difficult or / mitigate Business Continuity Plans and warning and impossible; sever congestion over wide the effects informing arrangements geographical area. Loss of power and of land other essential services over wide movement Other organisations: geographical area. Potential for a • FRS rescue capability number of persons to be trapped or • USAR capability. missing either in landslide itself and/or • NEAS have USAR capability within the in collapsed structures. Up to 5 Hazardous Area Response Team (HART) fatalities depending on the size and and would deploy as required to work location of land movement. alongside FRS USAR personnel

Police Traffic management capability in Service Fire and Rescue conjunction with Highways Agency tyne tunnel and local councils.

HL55 Unexploded Ordnance Discovery of explosive hazard 3 2 Medium Measures Police Major Incident Plan None identified Oct 14 requiring evacuation of more than 50 to mitigate people for more than 12 hours. the effects Joint Training & exercising between police and of military.

unexplode Police

d Northumbria ordnance.

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Risk Ref

H13 Foreign nuclear Depending on the distance of the 4 2 Medium None The International Nuclear Events Scale (INES) Awareness raising Oct 14 accident affecting the incident from the UK, outcomes stated was developed by the IAEA and OECD in UK. International include contamination of foodstuffs, 1990 to communicate and standardise the Nuclear Events Scale agriculture, surface water supplies and reporting of nuclear incidents or accidents. (INNES) level potentially countryside access equivalent 5, 6, 7 restrictions until monitoring and clean- The scale runs from a zero event with no up are carried out. Concerned people safety significance to a 7 for a major accident

could seek medical attention and such as Chernobyl. require monitoring/treatment Full range of consequences Three Mile Island rated 5.

• Economic impact – hundreds of RIMNET cascade arrangements millions PHE National Alerts • Social Disruption – severe local Plume Prediction from EMARC - PACRAM and regional • Public Outrage – serious and widespread onal Risk Assessment Nati Risk onal • Public Anxiety – intense,

widespread and sustained From Specific Assumptions Accident of the scale of Chernobyl in continental Europe. Note: UK nuclear emergency arrangements are based on a “reasonably foreseeable” event which is very significantly less severe H28b Small scale public Small scale public order gatherings or 4 2 Medium Measures LA Control of planned protests None identified Oct 14 protest. protests. Up to approximately 100 to prevent participants, possibly causing noise / mitigate Police Major Incident Plan, Mobilisation plan, and minor / moderate criminal damage the effects trained public order officers. requiring a locally managed police of small response. scale public order

gatherings Northumbria Police / protests. HL42 Services include ambulance workers 4 2 Medium None identified Oct 14 Emergency services: Council: and paramedics, fire and rescue • loss of cover because Fire and Rescue Authority and Service services and the Maritime and of industrial action Business Continuity Plans and warning and Coastguard Agency staff; a number of informing arrangements three day strikes with significant support over a two month period Other organisations: affecting a single emergency service. North East Ambulance service NHS Foundation Trust business continuity plan Marine and Coastguard Agency business continuity plan Business continuity plans by Category 1 and 2 responders FireWear Service Tyne &

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Risk Ref

H14 Major contamination There may be direct animal and 5 2 Medium Measures Standards and controls at a national and local None identified Oct 14 incident with consumer health effects arising from to regulate level widespread implications this incident. We assume a small the food for the food chain number of fatalities and casualties, production Local EHO arrangements arising from: although the public health implications process of food incidents vary widely1. It • an industrial should be noted that events such as accident affecting these, that cause an increase in food production exposure to human carcinogens, raise areas the risk of fatality, even though the • contamination of casualty cannot be identified. animal feed Additionally, there may be food production/marketing implications, • incidents arising depending on the scale and area

from production affected (e.g. major shellfisheries, processes dairy, livestock production areas). Consumer confidence may also be affected, leading to lost markets and,

where staple products (e.g. bread or ssessment milk) are affected, potential panic buying. Risk A Full range of consequences • Economic impact – hundreds of millions National • Fatalities – up to 5

• Casualties – up to 50 From • Social Disruption – localised, short term • Public Outrage – serious national concern • Public Anxiety – high levels of sustained concern Specific Assumptions An incident, similar to that which occurred in Belgium in 1999, in which animal feed is contaminated with dioxins, resulting in contamination of animals and animal feed products.

1 In the 1980s the BSE Crisis, at its peak, was responsible for approximately 20 fatalities annually. In addition, the Ecoli 0157 outbreak in Lanarkshire in 1996/97 resulted in 373 casualties and 21 fatalities. More recently the 2005 Ecoli in South Wales incident resulted in 1 fatality.

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Risk Ref

HL13 Transport Accident - Blockade of port, estuary or maritime 1 2 Low Procedure • MCA Major Incident Plan, MCA pollution None identified Oct 14

Maritime accident or route with possibility of some fatalities s to National Contingency Plan. deliberate blockade of if accidental. Economic impact on Port prevent / • Vessel ISM, SMS plans. International access to key port, operations and local industry. mitigate Convention on standards of training, estuary or maritime blockage certification and watchkeeping. (STCW) route for more than one of port 1978 month. estuary, or • Merchant Shipping Act 1995/1997. maritime International Regulations for Preventing route. Collisions at Sea (colregs) 1972. The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) 1974. • Convention for suppression of unlawful acts against the safety of maritime navigation

1988 Agency Coastguard Maritime and Port Contingency plans. SHL9 Transport accident - Ditching of a large passenger aircraft 1 2 Low Procedure • LA Mass Fatality Plan/Temporary Mortuary None identified Oct 14

Marine Accident. into the sea resulting in mass fatalities. s to Plan Aircraft ditches at sea prevent / • MCA Major Incident Plan or in inland waters mitigate • ARCC Major Incident Plan.

resulting in up to 300 aircraft Agency Coastguard

fatalities/casualties. accidents. Maritime and

H33 Unofficial strike action A single unofficial strike by prison 2 1 Low Northumbria Police and HMP Northumberland None identified by prison officers officers nationally, lasting more than contingency plans and exercising 12 hours and resulting in a serious shortfall in the number of personnel available to operate and maintain control of prisons leading to prison riots and/or serious disruption to the

CJS. Northumbria Police

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Risk Ref

H37 Influx of British Up to 10,000 British Nationals (BNs) 4 1 Low There are Measures taken at a Governmental level. None Identified Oct 14 Nationals who are not not normally resident in the UK, over 12 normally resident in the returning to UK within a 3-4 week million UK. period following conventional war, British widespread civil unrest or sustained nationals terrorism campaign against British and resident other Western nationals. outside the DCLG will look to review for the 2013 UK, with

NRA the number of BNs that could significant return to the UK as a result of drivers groups occurring outside its borders, such as over conflict, severe economic hardship or 10,000 in disease. The timeframes over which over 50 BNs would return will also be countries.

reviewed. Assessment Risk Full range of consequences • Economic impact – millions National National • Fatalities – up to ten

• Casualties – between 10 and From 50 • Social Disruption – very limited / insignificant disruption • Public Outrage – insignificant • Public Anxiety – minor and short term

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OUTSTANDING RISK QUERIES H53 International This scenario assumes a major 1 Low Oct 14 disruption to gas disruption to import supplies from supply. Norway and Qatar at a time of high demand due to severe weather. The combined loss of non-storage supplies is assumed to be 134 mcm/d, demand is assumed to be 425mcm/d, and the shock is assumed to last for a period of

14 days.

Full range of consequences • Economic impact – significant as disruption is assumed to last for 14 days resulting in some

industrial consumers having Assessment Risk their supplies interrupted (with their agreement via contracts).

• Social Disruption – limited National • Public Outrage –limited, driven by likely increase in gas bills From (due to increase in wholesale price) though assumption is that duration would be relatively short. • Public Anxiety – minor, localised and temporary changes in people’s routines.

H12 Biological substance Up to 5 fatalities and serious injuries or 2 release from facility offsite impact requiring up to 500 where pathogens are hospital admissions. HSE will look to handled deliberately review the risk description for the 2013 (e.g. pathogen NRA. release from Full range of consequences containment • Economic impact – millions laboratory) • Fatalities – up to 5 • Casualties – up to 500 • Social Disruption – very limited / insignificant • Public Outrage – serious and

widespread Executive Health and Safety • Public Anxiety – moderate and up to medium term

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HL25 Localised fire or Up to 1km around site, causing up to 50 1 explosion at a gas fatalities and 150 casualties, terminal as well as Specific Assumptions

LPG, LNG, and other Gas terminal event likely to be of short gas onshore duration once feed lines are isolated; feedstock pipeline event at a storage site could last for

and flammable gas days if the explosion damaged control Executive Health and Safety Safety Health and storage sites equipment. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact

on air quality. NGN /

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Discounted Risks

Risk Risk Category Lead Assessor Outcome Description Reason Discounted No. Type National Local

INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION H1 Fire or explosion Up to 3km around site causing up to Fire / Health Fire / Health This scenario is not foreseeable in T&W There are at a gas terminal 500 fatalities and up to 1500 and Safety and Safety LPG storage sites, see summary and single hazard as well as LPG, casualties. Gas terminal event likely Executive Executive assessment form for flammable liquids/gases. LNG, and other to be of short duration once feed Suggest using national and regional risk gas onshore lines are isolated; event at a storage assessments for those (HSE representative) feedstock pipeline site could last for days if the and flammable explosion damaged control gas storage sites equipment.

H2 Fire or explosion Up to 3km around site causing up to Fire / Health Fire / Health Only pipeline is in Northumberland, in unpopulated at an onshore 500 fatalities and 1500 casualties. and Safety and Safety area, buried and is low pressure, therefore risk ethylene gas Executive Executive wouldn’t meet outcome description. pipeline

H3 Fire or explosion Up to 3km around site causing up to Fire / Health Fire / Health No oil refinery in NTW (HSE representative) at an oil refinery 500 fatalities and up to 1500 and Safety and Safety casualties. Depending on the Executive Executive location and size of the release, the fire could burn for several days. Explosions would cause primarily crush / cuts & bruises type injuries, as well as burns – fires would cause predominantly burn-type injuries.

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Risk Risk Category Lead Assessor Outcome Description Reason Discounted No. Type National Local H5 Fire or explosion Up to 1km around site causing up to Health and Health and Not aware of any in Northumberland / Tyne and at an onshore fuel 100 fatalities and up to 500 Safety Safety Wear (HSE representative) pipeline casualties. Explosions would cause Executive Executive primarily crush / cuts & bruises type injuries, as well as burns – fires would cause predominantly burn- type injuries.

H6 Fire or explosion Local to site causing up to 200 Health and Health and Not applicable to Northumberland / Tyne and Wear at an offshore fatalities and up to 200 casualties. Safety Safety (HSE representative) oil/gas platform Explosions would cause primarily Executive Executive crush / cuts& bruises type injuries, as well as burns – fires would cause predominantly burn-type injuries.

H8 Toxic chemical Up to 10km from site causing up to Environment Environment H8 has been discounted as there are no relevant release 2000 fatalities and up to 10,000 Agency / Agency / sites in NTW casualties. Toxic release could be Health and Health and due to loss of containment of Safety Safety Not a realistic scenario for Northumbria / Tyne and chlorine – or of a number of other Executive Executive Wear. See single hazard assessment for toxic chemicals, e.g. anhydrous release (HSE representative) hydrofluoric acid, refrigerated ammonia, sulphur dioxide (or tri- oxide) gas.

H10 Radioactive Up to 4km from site causing up to Health and Health and No nuclear reactors in Northumbria / Tyne and substance 150 fatalities and up to 1500 Safety Safety Wear (HSE representative) release from a casualties. Executive Executive nuclear reactor accident

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Risk Risk Category Lead Assessor Outcome Description Reason Discounted No. Type National Local H19 Major coastal and Many coastal regions and tidal EA There are less than 3000 properties at risk from tidal flooding reaches of rivers affected. Major Coastal / Tidal flooding in the Northumbria LRF affecting more sea surge, tides, gale force winds Area, therefore this scale of hazard is not than two UK and potentially heavy rainfall. applicable. Coastal / Tidal flood risks have been regions. Excessive tide levels and many assessed in risk assessments HL17 and HL16. coastal and/or estuary defences overtopped or failing. Drains ‘backup’. Inundation from breaches in defences would be mostly unpredictable, rapid and dynamic with minimal or no warning. H21 Flooding: Major A single massive fluvial event or EA DISCOUNTED: Not applicable to any urban or rural fluvial flooding multiple concurrent regional events areas within the Northumbria LRF area. affecting parts of following a sustained period of There are < 7,000 properties at risk from fluvial more than 2 UK heavy rainfall extending over two flooding (at the 1 in 1000 Return Period) in the area. regions. weeks (perhaps combined with snow melt). The event would Fluvial flood risks for the Northumbria Area have include major fluvial flooding been assessed in risk assessments HL18, HL19, affecting a large, single urban area. and HL20. HL1 Fire or explosion Up to 3km around site causing up to Fire / Health Fire / Health No Terminal in the area at a gas terminal 10 fatalities and up to 100 and Safety and Safety or involving a gas casualties Executive Executive pipeline. HL24 Localised Localised outbreak of a disease PHE/HSE Covered by other risks on CRR (H24) legionella / which could cause Approximately meningitis 500 identified cases leading to 20 outbreak fatalities. Specific Assumptions No variation in likelihood between localities.

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Risk Risk Category Lead Assessor Outcome Description Reason Discounted No. Type National Local HL26 Localised fire or Up to 1km around site, causing up HSE explosion at an to 150 fatalities and 450 casualties. onshore ethylene gas pipeline HL27 Localised fire or Up to 1km around site, causing up HSE HSE No refineries in LRF region explosion at an oil to 150 fatalities and 500 causalities. refinery

SH8c Toxic Release No fatalities, less than 20 RAWG Discounted following discussion at LRF Risk hospitalised Workshop 11.11.13

Covered by other risks on CRR

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Threats

Plausibility Hazard or Threat Category Outcome Description

Score Lead Review DateReview Organisation

Catastrophic Terrorist Attacks See http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/national-risk- Cabinet Oct 2 register Office 14

Cyber Attacks: Infrastructure See http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/national-risk- Cabinet Oct 2 register Office 14

Attacks on infrastructure See http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/national-risk- Cabinet Oct 3 register Office 14

Attacks on crowded places See http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/national-risk- Cabinet Oct 4 register Office 14

Attacks on the transport system See http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/national-risk- Cabinet Oct 5 register Office 14

Smaller scale CBR attacks See http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/national-risk- Cabinet Oct 3 register Office 14

Cyber Attacks: data See http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/national-risk- Cabinet Oct 5 confidentiality register Office 14

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Annex 1: Contact Details for Lead Assessors

Telephone Agency Name Contact Officer Postal Address Email Address Number

Animal Health (AH) Jane Hindmarsh Animal Health & Veterinary 0300 303 8269 [email protected] Laboratories Agency Whitley Road Longbenton Newcastle upon Tyne NE12 9SE Environment Agency Phil Welton The Environment Agency 0191 203 4150 [email protected] (EA) North East Area Tyneside House Skinnerburn Road Newcastle Business Park Newcastle upon Tyne NE4 7AR Environment Agency Rob Stevenson The Environment Agency 0191 203 4204 [email protected] (EA) Northumbria Area Tyneside House Skinnerburn Road Newcastle Business Park Newcastle upon Tyne NE4 7AR Fire and Rescue Sean McKee Operations and Resilience 07814977124 [email protected] Service (FRS) Service Headquarters Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service Barmston Mere Nissan Way Washington SR5 3QY

Version 8.2 – February 2014 55 Community Risk Register Not Protectively Marked

Telephone Agency Name Contact Officer Postal Address Email Address Number

Public Health Ian Rufus Public Health England 0191 202 3888 [email protected] England (PHE) Floor 2 Citygate Gallowgate Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 4WH Health & Safety Linda Donachie Health & Safety Executive [HID 0191 202 6216 [email protected] Executive (HSE) CI1C] BP630, Alnwick House Benton Park View Newcastle upon Tyne NE98 1YX Local Authority (LA) Helen Hinds Head of Resilience Planning 0191 277 7176 [email protected] Newcastle City Council Newcastle Civic Centre Barras Bridge Newcastle NE1 8QH Maritime and Mike Bill Coastal Safety Manager East of 01262 607351 [email protected] Coastguard Agency England 07889 668069 (MCA) HM Coastguard Limekiln Lane Bridlington, YO15 2LX Met Office Kevin Wadsworth Met Office Advisor (Civil 07825 102520 [email protected] Contingencies) c/o Met Office Edinburgh Saughton House, Broomhouse Drive, Edinburgh EH11 3XQ

Version 8.2 – February 2014 56 Community Risk Register Not Protectively Marked

Telephone Agency Name Contact Officer Postal Address Email Address Number

Network Rail (NR) Richard Davies NEEC 01904 524 309 [email protected] Room M15 Main HQ Station Road York YO1 6HT Newcastle Peter Rea Compliance Manager 0191 214 3303 [email protected] International Airport Newcastle International Airport (NIA) Woolsington Newcastle Upon Tyne Tyne and Wear NE13 8BZ NEXUS (Metro) John Lockhart Metro 0191 203 3401 [email protected] Nexus House St James Boulevard Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 4AX NHS England Val Bowman Waterfront 4 01138 253 053 [email protected] CNTWAT Goldcrest Way Newcastle upon Tyne NE15 8NY North East Simon Swallow NEAS HQ 0191 496 3110 [email protected] Ambulance Service Bernicia House NHS FT (NEAS) Goldcrest Way Newburn Riverside Tyne & Wear NE15 8NY

Version 8.2 – February 2014 57 Community Risk Register Not Protectively Marked

Telephone Agency Name Contact Officer Postal Address Email Address Number

Northern Powergrid Andrew McLeod Northern Powergrid 0191 387 7409 [email protected] (on behalf of the Manor House Energy Networks Station Road Association) New Penshaw Houghton Le Spring DH4 7LA Northumbria Police Lucy Kerr & Business Continuity and 01661 869977 [email protected] (NP) Insp John Hall Emergency Planner 07899 061765 Force Resilience Unit [email protected] Northumbria Police HQ Ponteland Newcastle upon Tyne NE20 OBL Northumbrian Water Kevin Morrell Northumbrian Water Ltd 0191 419 6506 [email protected] Limited (NWL) Leat House Pattinson Road Washington Tyne and Wear NE38 8LB Royal Air Force Hugh Stewart RAF Linton on Ouse 01347 847 407 [email protected] (RAF) York YO30 2AJ Telecommunications Lucy Kerr Business Continuity and 01661 869977 [email protected] Sub-Committee Emergency Planner 07899 061765 (TSC) Force Resilience Unit Northumbria Police HQ Ponteland Newcastle upon Tyne NE20 OBL

Version 8.2 – February 2014 58 Community Risk Register

Annex 2: Glossary

AH Animal Health BASIS British Agrochemical Standards Inspection Scheme BCM Business Continuity Management BSE Bovine Spongiform Encephalitis COMAH Control of Major Accident Hazard Regulations Defra Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs DH Department of Health EA Environment Agency EEE Energy Emergencies Executive ENA Energy Networks Association FRS Fire and Rescue Service GP General Practitioner HART Hazardous Area Response Team HDIM Hazard Detection Identification and Monitoring HPA Health Protection Agency HSE Health and Safety Executive INES International Nuclear Events Scale LA Local Authority LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas LRF Local Resilience Forum MCA Marine and Coastguard Agency MO Meteorological Office

NEAS North East Ambulance Service NHS FT NEP(F) National Emergency Plan (Fuel) NHS National Health Service NIA Newcastle International Airport NIHHS Notification of Installations Handling Hazardous Substances NP Northumbria Police NR Network Rail NSWWS National Severe Weather Warning System NWL Northumbrian Water Ltd OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development RAF Royal Air Force RRA Regional Risk Assessment SAR Search And Rescue SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SOLAS Safety of Life at Sea SORT Special Operations Response Team STCW Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping TT Top Tier UK United Kingdom USAR Urban Search And Rescue WHO World Health Organisation