RESEARCH

METRO MARKET UPDATE Q2 2017

METRO MANILA REAL ESTATE SECTOR REVIEW REAL ESTATE BOOM STRENGTHENS AMIDST GLOBAL CONCERNS AND ISSUES Going through the newspapers every day, you will come across various articles that speak of fears of financial market destabilization brought about by new administrations and their corresponding planned policy changes, continuing warfare and conflict in the Middle East and Mindanao, and rising reports of crime and terrorism. Nevertheless, the negative effect on perception is deemed short term and reactions fade over time. Moreover, the constant increase in local real estate property prices, comparing second quarter numbers from previous periods, and several other continuously improving indicators clearly demonstrate that investor confidence in and the rest of the country remains solid and unwavering.

The Office Market The Retail Market The Industrial Market

The upward momentum of the The Retail Market grows together Further to the growth of the Retail office market is still credited to the with the Office and Residential Sector, the need for warehouses, country’s bullish economy, young Sectors. Convenience remains to demographics and consumption- storage areas and better driven market. Despite the various be a major factor considered by property developers in the distribution channels fortifies. happenings in the international and Around 160 operating enterprises local environment, investors appear conceptualization and planning of to keep the “business as usual” various real estate projects. Ayala were registered with the Philippine mindset. The financial gains, Land Inc. (ALI) has about 150,000 Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) as income potential and the square meters of Gross Leasable of April 30, 2017. These are attractiveness of doing business in Area in its 2017 Metro Manila businesses engaged in activities the remain pervasive construction pipeline. and unparalleled. The Philippine such as Business Process labor force’s proficiency in English, Retail openings continue with major Outsourcing, Food Products & flexibility in work schedules and mall developers announcing various Beverages, IT Research & cheap labor cost are consistently Development, and Real Estate sought after by employers and provincial expansions. Vista Land company owners. targets to construct commercial Services and Development. centers in 200 cities and Take up of office spaces in Metro municipalities as an integral Manila remained fast as overall component of its mixed-use vacancy rate continued to decline projects. In addition, Robinsons The Hospitality Market to 3.51% in the second quarter of Land Corporation (RLC) is set to 2017 from 4.60% in the same The Hospitality Market experiences period last year. open two new shopping malls in Leyte, one in Naga and another one progress as the number of visitor in Iligan this year. At the end of arrivals in the country continues to 2016, RLC shopping malls had a increase. Latest reports show a The Residential Market Gross Leasable Area of 1.3 Million year-to-date year-on-year visitor square meters. With the scheduled arrivals growth of almost 15%. This The Philippine real estate market opening of new RLC shopping malls stays mainly driven by the vigorous bullishness draws investments in this year, the total GLA will increase office sector. Residential demand office, residential and retail by 9% to 1.39 Million square comes from office workers looking developments nationwide that to rent space near their respective meters. places of work, especially due to target the growing tourist the worsening traffic situation in Further to this, SM Investments population. Metro Manila. Corp. wishes to widen its market penetration across all retail formats, Residential prices continue to not limited to shopping malls and escalate across all market supermarkets, in 2017. SM aspires segments as residential demand similarly rises. Selling prices average to cater to the evolving needs and PHP74,000 per square meter, preferences of its customers PHP115,000 per square meter, through diverse and quality PHP171,000 per square meter, and produces and enhanced customer PHP225,000 per square meter for experience. Affordable, Middle, High-end and Luxury projects, respectively.

SNAPSHOTS | Economic Indicators

6.4% y-o-y 2.8% (Jun 2017) 4.5% (Jan-May 2017) 5.6% (Jun 2017) 2.09% (Jun 2017) 49.86 (Q2 2017) Q1 2017 GDP Inflation Rate OFW Remittances Avg. Bank Lending 91-day T-Bill Avg. PHP-USD

2 OFFICE MARKET DISPLAYS CONTINUOUS GROWTH, NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN Office | office market outperforming the other Central Business Districts

The office sector continues to rose to 3.51% from the first quarter, Makati and ’s expand with new buildings recently quarter’s 2.85% vacancy rate. The vacancy rates declined to 0.92% delivered and several others for number of vacant spaces in most quarter-on-quarter and 4.82% turnover this year. Over 1.2 million business districts grew, with special quarter-on-quarter, respectively. square meters of office Gross note on (BGC) Leasable Area (GLA) are presently and Bay area, due to the new Makati is still the preferred location in the supply pipeline. In addition, supply from recently completed of local and foreign investors. In the office space take-up remains office buildings. second quarter of 2016, positive as the Philippines maintains its position of being an attractive Vacancy in BGC was pegged at TABLE 1 inbound investment destination. 2.23%, lower than last year’s Moreover, the office rental rates 2.60%. Newly turned over buildings Q2 2017 Office Data have been constantly growing include Ore Central, Inoza Tower, annually at a rate of 5-6%, as and World Plaza. These new office Weighted Avg. investors capitalize on the country’s projects added a total of 74,158 Lease Rate Vacancy favorable demographics, strong square meters of GLA. The largest (PHP/sqm/mo.) Rate vacancy can be attributed to Ore dollar, competitive labor cost and Makati CBD 1,259.79 0.92% continuous infrastructure Central, with an availability of about Fort Bonifacio 975.61 2.23% development. 52.11% since its opening in May of this year. Alabang 669.70 4.82% The office market is mainly driven by the robust IT-BPO industry. As Bay Area’s vacancy rose to above 757.62 11.89% 1% in the second quarter of 2017, reported by the Information Ortigas 637.27 1.85% Technology and Business Process with vacancy recorded at 1.67%. Association of the Philippines Bay Area had an additional 58,758 Bay Area 721.07 1.67% square meters of office GLA coming (IBPAP), the number of Full Time Source: Santos Knight Frank Research Employees (FTE) in the IT-BPO from 3 newly constructed buildings. sector almost doubled from These projects include iMet by 777,000 employees in 2013 to Federal Land Inc., and Filinvest FIGURE 1 1,146,000 employees in 2016 (5 Cyberzone Buildings B and C by years) and by 2022, the number of Filinvest Land Inc. Weighted Avg. Lease Rates vs. Rental Growth Rate FTEs would have gone up to Filinvest Land Inc. recently turned 1,800,000 employees. over Buildings B and C, which are 1,000 4% both fully leased out. Buildings A The Offshore Gaming Industry is an 900 emerging industry that is likewise and D are scheduled to be 800 boosting office market growth. In completed by Q2 2018. Filinvest 0% 2016, the Philippine Amusement Cyberzone in features four 700 office towers, having seven floors and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) 600 issued 35 offshore gaming licenses. each. The first two office buildings -4%

PHP/sqm/month 500 PAGCOR’s reported that a total of have a combined GLA of 36,438.30 75 applications are presently being square meters while the remaining 400 evaluated. two towers have 28,220.90 square 300 -8% meters of GLA. The office sector rises above the

various issues and concerns within No buildings were turned over and

Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 the market. In the second quarter of no new supply was added to the 2008 Q2 2017, a slight increase in quarter- Makati, Alabang, Ortigas, and Weighted Average Lease Rate on-quarter vacancy was registered. Quezon City office markets. While Growth Rate Metro Manila’s vacancy the vacancy of the other CBD marginally grew in the second Source: Santos Knight Frank Research

3 Makati’s vacancy was recorded at Rental rates in Bonifacio Global 2.35%. At present, this number has City, Ortigas, and Bay area were significantly decreased to below noted at PHP975.61, PHP637.27, 1%. Additionally, the Q2 2017 rental and PHP721.07 per square meter per month, respectively. The asking growth rate of the Makati Central lease rates are continuously rising, Business District (CBD) was with Bay Area leading all the other measured at 9.68% year-on-year, Metro Manila CBD. The lease rates which is higher compared to last in Bay City grew by 11.25% year- year’s 4.66%. Weighted average on-year, coming from a prolonged lease rate was documented at period of zero price increase. Bay PHP1,259.79, still the highest Area was distantly followed by amongst the Metro Manila CBD. Bonifacio Global City with a 6.76% The average lease rate of prime year-on-year rental growth rate. Furthermore, no movement was offices in Makati was pegged at noted in the weighted average lease PHP1,492.64 per square meter per rates of Alabang and Quezon City, month, while the rental rates of which are at PHP669.70 and Grade A buildings were at an PHP757.62 per square meter per average of PHP1,078.05 per square month, respectively. meter per month.

West Campus Towers

Source: Santos Knight Frank Research

FIGURE 2 Net Absorption (sqm) vs. Vacancy Rate (%) Disclaimer: Highest net absorption in Q1 2017 is due to the inclusion of the data for Bay Area this year

450,000 14% 400,000 12% 350,000 300,000 10% 250,000 200,000 8% 150,000 6% 100,000 50,000 4% 0 2% -50,000

-100,000 0%

Q3 2008 Q3 2013 Q1 Q1 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2

Net Absorption Vacancy Rate

Source: Santos Knight Frank Research

4 MARKET PLAYERS BANK ON EMERGING BUSINESS CENTERS Residential | Central Business Districts enjoy double-digit demand

Bay Area Skyline

Source: Santos Knight Frank Research

Among the factors include the Residential developments in Arca TABLE 2 country’s positive and stable South, on the other hand, also Q2 2017 Residential Demand investment grade ratings, the ‘build, enjoy brisk take-up. Envisioned to Statistics build, build’ infrastructure program be the country’s next Bonifacio of the current administration, Global City (BGC) in , the Units Sold Avg. Monthly (%) Take-up modest employment rate future developments, particularly underpinned by the growing office buildings that will cater to the Makati City 90% 16 millennial workforce, and also the Business Process Outsourcing Taguig City 86% 14 sustained performance of other real (BPO) industry, captured a lot of estate segments. These drove property investors and buyers. The Quezon City 78% 14 property investors to maintain a upcoming middle income project of Ortigas* 75% 13 positive outlook on the residential Avida Land, Avida Towers One market and, most importantly, to Union Place, already fully exhausted Alabang 69% 10 delve into the huge investment its inventory introduced in 2014. *Includes parts of , , potential of emerging business The second building, Avida Towers and San Juan centers in Metro Manila. Vireo, will be launched this year Source: Santos Knight Frank Research further catering to the still huge In Pasay City, the immense market unserved demand. Approximately Investor-driven demand continued activity in Bay Area continued to 55% of the Vireo inventory has to bolster the local condominium push average monthly take-up rates already received interests, through sales market in the second quarter on an upward course. After Letter of Intent (LOI), mostly from of 2017. Residential sales demand registering an average monthly sale investment buyers. across major central business of 51 units as of October last year, districts (CBD) in Metro Manila units sold per month now stands at On the high-end segment, about remained vigorous despite the an average of 70 units. About 91% 95% of Alveo Land’s The Veranda slower-than-expected growth of the were already absorbed, mostly by is presently taken-up by the market. Philippines Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the previous quarter. investors in which some were AyalaLand Premier, meanwhile, Foreign and local investors took into reported to have purchased units in recently launched the third block of account not only the country’s bulk or on a per floor basis. S its Arbor Lanes project in which broadest measure of economic Residences, the three-tower 61% of the units were sold during performance but also other development of SMDC, was already the first month alone. Other than relatively significant factors, which sold out after it was launched a year investors, demand for such projects prove that the Philippines is a ago. mostly came from Overseas Filipino worthy choice for residential Workers (OFW), investment.

5 and expatriates who wanted to own in Arca South grew by a units instead of rent. compounded annual growth rate of 15% from approximately Supported by the robust demand, PHP150,000 per sq.m. in 2013. selling prices of residential This latest transaction reflects condominiums in the Bay Area and capital appreciation in the real Arca South are continuously estate market and is also one of the becoming competitive. Dominated reasons that market players by middle and high-end projects, continue to post an optimistic prices range from approximately viewpoint of Philippine Real Estate. PHP117,000 to PHP175,200 and PHP132,400 up to PHP190,400 per square meter (sq.m.) in the said emerging business centers, TABLE 3 respectively. Q2 2017 Property Turnovers On the development side, property developers continue their search for Residential Condominium Developer Location Inventory available developable lands in the Metro. While properties situated CDC Millennium Ortigas CDC Holdings Inc. Pasig City 112 within CBDs remain a top priority, Grand Hyatt Residences Federal Land Taguig City 225 venturing into emerging business Trump Tower Century Properties Makati City 251 centers that follow township-like The Viridian at Greenhills Ortigas & Co. San Juan City 566 concepts proves to be a viable Shine Residences SMDC Pasig City 892 option for desired expansion and The Beacon - Tower 3 Geo Estate Dev. Corp. Makati City 988 diversification activities. Although Grace Residences - Tower 3 SMDC Taguig City 1,134 the locations might be considered Breeze Residences SMDC Pasay City 2,080 as fringe areas, emerging business centers are still in close proximity to Source: Santos Knight Frank Research CBDs and commercial areas, and transportation is readily available and easily accessible.

In the middle of the second quarter, Megaworld Corporation was able to tap the upscale market through the launching of its luxury residential development in McKinely West. The Kingsley at The Albany is a mid-rise luxury condominium offering only 64 units, with sizes ranging from 123 to 349 square meters. Selling prices start at approximately PHP243,600 per sq.m. and are expected to reach around PHP300,000 per sq.m. in the coming quarters.

In addition, Arthaland recently acquired a 4,000-sq.m. landbank in Arca South as part of its portfolio expansion and diversification strategy. The land is intended for development of a commercial or a mixed-use project. The Company’s acquisition of the land was reported to cost about PHP1.05 Billion or around PHP262,500 per sq.m., suggesting that land values Trump Tower

Source: Santos Knight Frank Research

6 BULLISH RETAIL ACTIVITIES RAMP UP EXPANSION

Retail | Young demographics to bolster active consumption

Business activities in the Philippine Galleon Museum in SM Mall of Asia leasable area of approximately retail market was buoyant in the is an example of an innovative 40,000 square meters. The mall second quarter of the year, as concept that is becoming a features a brand-new retail concept consumer spending increased noticeable trend. The museum is known as Japan Town, Korean backed by the rising tourist arrivals and foreign remittances during the expected to be finished and Town and Urban Turf that provide a summer season. Higher level of unveiled within the year. It will mix of modern fashion, unique salaries and flourishing businesses feature the rich history of global dining experience and innovative created and supported the growing trade in the country and will occupy retail interactions. Retail brands consumer demand. a gross floor area of more than such as H&M, Coffee Bean and Tea 200,000 sqm, making SM Mall of Leaf, Fossil, Philip Stein, Expenditures for food and non- Asia regain its title of being the alcoholic beverages dominated the Continued on Page 9… total household expenditure largest mall in the Philippines. followed by housing utilities and , the retail transport costs. Spending on other FIGURE 3 non-essential goods is projected to segment of the mixed-use project increase in the short run, particularly Magnolia Residences, will also be Upcoming Retail Openings per spending on clothing and footwear, expanding its area, encouraging Location and personal health care. more family-oriented activities through an open-air green plaza, al- Several retail malls in the Metro fresco dining and more food were opened targeting the huge 19% choices, additional cinemas, family demand generated from mixed-use developments. Moreover, the amusement center, and an air- country’s young demographics is conditioned chapel. The expansion 6% 43% expected to further push retail will also include a five-storey office demand. Majority of the luxury segment and is expected to be 12% consumption spending were by the completed by 2018. millennials and they make up most of today’s workforce. Furthermore, the retail segment of the mixed-use development Vertis 20% Entry of luxury brands is very North in Quezon City has recently evident especially in the clothing opened its doors last June 2017, Pasay City Pasig City and footwear industry. City Taguig City Nevertheless, openings in the food adding additional retail spaces in Quezon City and beverages industry have been the North Triangle area. The mall is widely noticeable and constitute regarded as the first millennial Source: Santos Knight Frank Research most of the demand coming from shopping complex and has a gross households. Portfolio diversifications and expansions are still recurring trends in the retail industry. Some of the newer trends are the inclusion of more green areas, parks and recreational activity centers, public art museum or arts and crafts section, and al-fresco restaurants and other culinary concepts. Opening of homeware brands is a very popular emerging trend as homeware products are marketed as “must haves” to jump start your personal home space or office space.

Source: Santos Knight Frank Research

7 INVESTMENT PLEDGES TO RAMP UP ECOZONE DEVELOPMENT Industrial | Sector growth and positive outlook sustained

The Philippines continues to be one metals and printing were still the FIGURE 4 of the most attractive foreign major contributors to the positive Total Approved Foreign Direct investment destination among increase in Value of Production. Investments by Industry South East Asian countries. With Moreover, growth in the Volume of the government’s thrust of ramping up infrastructure projects, investor Production Index (VoPI) was also optimism is sustained, backed by evident, although at a slower pace, 3% 2% 1% 4% strong macroeconomic registering a 7.4% growth rate year- fundamentals. Economic forecasts on-year. Majority of the production for the industrial market remain volume came from fabricated metal positive, attributed by the bullish products, leather products, behavior of foreign investors and footwear and clothing apparels. 24% the notable high influx of foreign investment pledges. With the Further to this, investment inflows current state of the economy and are projected towards Region 4 65% planned reforms, the business (CALABARZON) and National environment in the country Capital Region (NCR) accounting for becomes more conducive for about 69.9% of the total approved investments. investments. Other prospective Real Estate Activities At the start of the year 2017, total locations for investment are Region Manufacturing approved investments, amounting 7 (Central Visayas) and Region 11 Electricity, Gas, Steam & Air Con to more than PHP121.46 billion, (Davao), due to the scarcity of Administrative & Support Services increased by 21.82% compared to industrial lots, factory buildings and Transportation and Storage the first few months of the previous warehouses available in the market. Others year. Investments in Real Estate Activities, amounting to PHP78.89 In general, the Economic Zones Source: Philippine Statistics Authority billion, continued to be one of the owned by the Philippine Economic main drivers of growth in the Zone Authority (PEZA) have rental industry, accounting for about 65% rates ranging from PHP19 per FIGURE 5 of the total approved investments. square meter per month to PHP27 Industrial Production Growth Moreover, pledges in the per square meter per month. manufacturing industry amounted Rate (year-on-year) to about PHP29.67 billion. Both In South Luzon, available industrial Real Estate and Manufacturing lots for sale, mostly measuring more 25.0 Investments doubled from the same than 8,000 square meters, range period last year. Furthermore, 20.0 from PHP5,500 per square meter to Netherlands continued to be one of PHP10,000 per square meter. the top investing countries with 15.0 Rental rates of industrial lots, on the about 27.2% of total foreign 10.0 investment pledges. Netherlands other hand, range from PHP50 per was followed by Singapore and square meter per month to PHP70 5.0 United Kingdom (UK), sharing square meter per month. Moreover, 18.8% and 15.9% of the rental rates of factory buildings 0.0 investments, respectively. range from PHP125 per square meter per month to PHP200 per -5.0 Value of Production Index (VaPI) in square meter per month, varying -10.0 the manufacturing industry remained stable, posting exact depending on the economic zones’

growth of 3.6% as the same period proximity to infrastructures.

Jul-16 Jan-17

Jan-16 of last year. Footwear and apparel,

Mar-16 Mar-17

Sep-16 Nov-16 May-17 May-16 basic A total of 366 economic zones are VoPI VaPI operating across the country. All of which are privately-owned. Source: Philippine Statistics Authority Continued on Page 9…

8 Continued from Page 7 Retail Metro Manila retail rents have been Continued from Page 8 Industrial stable at an average of PHP1,527.11 per square meter per Mumuso and Base London are month, with minimal increases in Typically, in one region, at least 2 already open for business while the Bay area, Pasig City and public economic zones operate. Of other upcoming brands such as Quezon City. An estimated Gross the existing economic zones, only 4 Uniqlo, Mango, Sunnies Café, Floor Area (GFA) of more than economic zones are government- Mama Lou’s, Pandora, Own Days 40,000 square meters from owned. These are located in and Paper Moon are still remaining retail mall turnover is still Baguio, , Cebu and anticipated. anticipated in the upcoming . With the pressure quarters. Moreover, a total coming from the influx of foreign Brisk take-up in retail spaces is upcoming supply of more than investments and increasing observe as new entrants expand in 500,000 square meters of GFA is business sentiments coming from different locations inside and expected to be delivered in the partner countries, the government outside of Metro Manila and is following years. The bullish behavior is ramping up the development and expected to reach at least 97% of consumers and developers is completion of economic zones occupancy rate, considering that all perceived to continue, backed by through joint venture projects with other newly opened malls are optimistic views relative to local developers. already at full-operation. Majority of consumer demographics and the retail space take-up was macroeconomic fundamentals. In addition, a national economic brought about by brands in the zone map is currently being industries of food and beverages, prepared by the PEZA for easy clothing apparel and other reference of investors. The map will FIGURE 7 consumer goods. About half of the show available areas in the country recorded retail openings in malls Upcoming Retail Supply* conducive for economic zone were clothing apparel retailers while 900,000 development. This initiative aims to 30% of the total openings were 800,000 further entice investors to expand under food and beverages including and put up businesses in the 700,000 restaurants and coffee shops. The country. Furthermore, the remaining percentages were 600,000 government is intensifying efforts to openings from cosmetic brands, 500,000 complete key infrastructure projects homeware and consumer 400,000 inside and outside of Metro Manila electronics. 300,000 that will improve accessibility to 200,000 transportation and trade. 100,000 FIGURE 6 Investors continue to be confident 0 Upcoming Retail Openings per and optimistic about the country’s 2017 2018 2019F Location position, which is driven by the Estimated GFA Upcoming Supply sustained economic growth momentum that shows no sign of *Cumulative value of upcoming retail supply since Q1 2017 slowing down anytime soon. Gross Source: Santos Knight Frank Research domestic Product (GDP) and other Food macroeconomic indicators remain Others and within target and consistent with the 23% Bever current rosy business environment age and anticipated improvements that 30% will benefit the country’s industrial Clothi sector. ng and Appar el 47%

Source: Santos Knight Frank Research

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