38 Tuesday, november 10, 2009 tuesday, november 10, 2009 politico 39 PREVIEW: Treacherous Landscape PREVIEW: Treacherous Landscape Senate GOvernors O Balance of At Stake Balance of At Stake Power Power E T Most Interesting D I 37 19 18 9 37 19 18 19 Total Democratic Republican Open Total Democratic Republican Open

’ GU Showdowns In HOUSE By Ch a r l e s Ma h t e s i a n 435 Seats at Stake 10rs 2010 With a combined total of more than 500 House, Senate and gubernatorial races next year, it’s hard to cut through the spin to figure out which ones are worth watching. Here is POLITICO’s list of 10 contests to keep an eye on, iewe 180 Solid D 44 Likely D 22 15 9 150 Solid R V 15 whether it’s because they are uniquely revealing, particularly significant — or simply impending train wrecks. Lean Tossup Lean Likely Source: Cook Political Report D R R

Nevada Pennsylvania Illinois Texas Ohio California Florida’s Minnesota’s New Hampshire’s senate senate Senate senate Governor Governor Governor 8th district 6th district 1st district

OK, OK. So Senate Majority No incumbent in the House The Republican primary here In the GOP primary, front- All the best action in Ohio has been kind to Republican Gov. Arnold Though you wouldn’t know it from GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann Democratic Rep. Carol Shea- Leader Harry Reid’s reelection or Senate has a longer or between Gov. and runner Rep. Mark Kirk faces this race will take place in Democrats in recent years, Schwarzenegger is on his way his bombast, Democratic freshman drives Democrats batty with her Porter doesn’t cut a high profile in isn’t a replay of former Senate tougher road to reelection than former state House Speaker resistance from conservatives. the bitter GOP primary, in but the flailing state economy out, but the largest and perhaps Rep. Alan Grayson represents a in-your-face conservatism, yet no Washington. She doesn’t do the Majority Leader Tom Daschle’s Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter. is likely to be more In the Democratic primary, which Gov. Rick Perry faces and an unemployment rate of most ungovernable state in the highly competitive Central Florida- matter what they throw at her, she cable-television shows, she’s not on unsuccessful 2004 campaign. First, there’s a primary against interesting than the general front-runner state Treasurer a challenge from Sen. Kay 10.1 percent have threatened nation is nevertheless poised to based seat. His precarious political still seems to end up on top. the leadership track and she doesn’t Different state dynamics; weaker Rep. Joe Sestak, a tenacious and election. Alexi Giannoulias has not yet Bailey Hutchison. first-term Democratic Gov. have a governor’s race almost position would seem to demand a In 2008, Democrats thought she say outrageous things. opposition; and lessons learned. well-funded campaigner who is Tea party activists have won over his own party. There is a deep reservoir Ted Strickland’s reelection as fascinating as the one that cautious approach, but that’s not wouldn’t be able to recover from her Still, her bid to win a third term But it’s still likely to be the challenging Specter’s Democratic already signaled that they view While the February primary of animosity between the prospects. elected the former actor. Grayson’s style. sensational October cable-television is shaping up as one of the most marquee race of 2010. This high- credentials. Then comes a this race as the next N.Y. 23, — the earliest in the nation — two leading statewide Given that this is a key swing It’s California, so naturally all Instead, he has gone guns blazing comment that Obama “may have fascinating races of 2010 because stakes contest will be drenched grueling general election against the Nov. 3 special election will settle all those questions Republicans, which means the state, national Democrats will campaign-spending records are at the Republican Party, winning anti-American views.” Almost $2 of what it will reveal about the new in national money, and both former Republican Rep. Pat where the conservative grass and leave plenty of time for race will be nasty, brutish and be closely watching this contest in jeopardy and a few fabulously notoriety for an incident on the House million poured into her Democratic political landscape. parties will stop at nothing to Toomey, another well-funded and roots revolted against the GOP healing, there are several expensive. — and the race for Ohio’s open wealthy candidates are in the floor in which he accused the GOP rival’s campaign as a result. Still, Shea-Porter was the longest of achieve their desired outcome. experienced candidate who’s establishment’s candidate. other X factors that make this Hutchison, one of the Senate seat — for clues for 2012. hunt. There’s even a billionaire — of wanting people to “die quickly” Bachmann managed to pull off a long shots when she first won her New All the polling in the race already run against Specter Crist, whose poll ratings race so compelling. state’s most popular pols, has After all, in the 15 presidential former eBay CEO Meg Whitman rather than get better health care. narrow victory. Hampshire seat in 2006, a former signals that Reid is in serious before — he narrowly lost to have lagged recently, is a There’s impeached been slow out of the gate. And elections since 1952, Ohio — and she’s currently the GOP Then Grayson grabbed headlines This time around, bolstered by anti-war activist who almost no one trouble, but that doesn’t Specter in a 2004 GOP primary. prolific fundraiser and a skillful Democratic Gov. Rod she hasn’t ever run a race has picked the winner 14 front-runner. for calling a top female adviser to progressive online activists who expected to knock off an incumbent. mean there’s no clear path to Specter doesn’t exactly retail campaigner. But a Blagojevich, whose quite like this one. Perry, on times. In 2008, Obama won 51 On the Democratic side, state Board Chairman detest Bachmann, Democrats are Yet the national political reelection for the four-term cultivate a warm and fuzzy image, February event with President shenanigans threw this seat the other hand, is a veteran percent of the Ohio vote, the Attorney General Jerry Brown is a “K St. whore.” hoping to mount an even more environment has changed Democratic incumbent. A so don’t expect either Sestak or during which into play — he’s slated to go of smash-mouth contests, best Democratic presidential poised to pull off one of the great His combative, scorched-earth aggressive effort to dislodge the considerably since then, and her race handful of Republicans are vying Toomey to pull their punches. And he embraced the stimulus to trial next year. You can bet having won a 2002 campaign performance since 1964. second acts in American politics. style has won him a national liberal two-term congresswoman. against Manchester Mayor Frank for a chance to take him on, as a party switcher, Specter is package has turned into an it will be a circus that will not in which his Democratic Republicans are well- The 71-year-old former governor, following, but it’s also made him But that hasn’t stopped Guinta will prove a great indicator of but the GOP struggled to come going to face withering attacks on albatross in his bid for the reflect favorably on Illinois opponent spent $67 million to positioned to take advantage of who served two terms beginning GOP Public Enemy No. 1. Still, Bachmann, who recently described just how much it has changed. up with a well-known, top-tier his character. nomination. Democrats. his $28 million. Strickland’s vulnerability with a in the mid-1970s and made Republicans have yet to settle on an Democrats’ health care plan as the Shea-Porter has faced considerable opponent. That may be because In his corner, however, are Rubio, a talented candidate Then there’s the Chicago candidate who is familiar with the three failed bids for the White opponent. “crown jewel of socialism.” criticism back home about her Reid is widely recognized as a two formidable allies: the White in his own right, has every mafia in the White House — national spotlight — former Rep. House, is now the front-runner. Why? Local Republicans are well And Bachmann won’t be an easy approach to the health care debate, fierce opponent, and he’ll have House, which has an interest intention of reminding they aren’t about to give up John Kasich, a former House But Sen. Dianne Feinstein has aware that Grayson won’t go down mark — she’s amassed an army of with GOP opponents ripping the all the money he needs to run in sending a message to Republicans of Crist’s heresy, the president’s old Senate Budget Committee chairman, left the door open to a bid, which without a fight — a campaign adviser small donors and attained rock-star former grass-roots activist for her the campaign he wants. prospective party switchers, and giving this contest all the seat without a fight. host and short-lived would set up a clash of California told POLITICO last month that status on the right, which is just as initial reluctance to hold public the Democratic establishment in makings of a GOP civil war. presidential candidate. political titans. “Whoever wins the nomination will eager to return her to Congress as health care events. That makes her Pennsylvania. end up gutted like a fish by Election the left is to send her back home to something of a canary in the coal mine Day.” Minnesota. for the big Democratic class of 2006. Status Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Tossup Tossup Likely Republican Tossup Likely Republican Lean Democratic Tossup Tossup Lean Republican Lean Democratic Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Tossup Narrow Democratic advantage Clear Republican advantage Tossup Currently safe Narrow Democratic advantage Lean takeover Tossup Republican favored Tossup

The target the party switcher the front-runner the president’s seat the clash the bellwether the survivor the provocateur the bomb thrower the coal mine canary

Sen. Harry Reid (D) Sen. Arlen Specter (D) Gov. Charlie Crist (R) Rep. Mark Kirk (R) Gov. Rick Perry (R) Gov. Ted Strickland (D) Atty. General Jerry Brown (D) Rep. Alan Grayson (D) Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 59 Age: 69 Age: 79 Age: 53 Age: 50 Age: Age: 68 Age: 71 Age: 51 Age: 53 Age: 56 Austin Home: Searchlight Home: Philadelphia Home: St. Petersburg Home: Highland Park Home: Home: Bexley Home: Oakland Home: Orlando Home: Stillwater Home: Rochester Assumed office First elected: 1986 First elected: 1980 First elected: 2006 First elected: 2000 First elected: First elected: 2006 Statewide wins: 4 First elected: 2008 First elected: 2006 First elected: 2006 Dec. 2000 Term: 4th Term: 5th Term: 1st Term: 5th Term: 1st Term: 1st Term: 2nd Term: 2nd Term: 2nd full term

reid favorability specter favorability Crist Approval Poll: Perry Approval Strickland approval Brown Favorability 2008 House Election 2008 House Election 2008 House Election Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Excellent/Good Have Illinois politicians done enough Approve Approve Favorable to clean up politics in the state? Unfavorable Undecided Don’t know Fair/Poor Disapprove Disapprove Unfavorable 52% 46% 52% No opinion Don’t know Yes Neither approve/disapprove Neither approve/disapprove No opinion Carol Shea-Porter (D) 28% Don’t know Alan Grayson (D) Michele Bachmann (R) 35% 42% No 48% 44% 46% Not sure 36% 48% 43% 46% 54% 55% 37% 29% El Tinklenberg (D) 13% 6% 44% (R) Jeb Bradley (R) 11% 4% 15% 27% 13% 89% 15% 10% Source: PCCC (D)/Research 2000, Bob Anderson (I) Oct. 17-19; 600 likely voters Source: Franklin & Marshall College Poll, 5% 6% Oct. 20-25; 616 adults Obama Approval Obama Approval Obama Approval Obama Approval Obama Approval Obama Approval Obama Approval 2008 Presidential 2008 Presidential 2008 Presidential Excellent/Good Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Approve Fair/Poor 52% 53% Disapprove Disapprove Don’t know Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove 45% Not sure Not sure Not sure Neither approve/disapprove Neither approve/disapprove No opinion Barack Obama (D) Barack Obama (D) Barack Obama (D) 46% 46% 51% 56% 41% 52% 60% 51% 47% 53% 47% 53% 48% 44% 52% 45% 31% John McCain (R) John McCain (R) John McCain (R) 2% 1% 1% 1% 7% 3% 9% Source: St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/ Source: Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 14; Source: Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 13; Bay News 9 poll; Oct. 25-28; 600 registered Source: Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 14; 500 Source: University of Texas/Texas Tribune, Source: The Ohio Poll, Oct. 14-20; Source: Field Poll, Sept. 18-Oct. 5; Source: Almanac of American Politics, 2010 Source: Almanac of American Politics, 2010 Source: Almanac of American Politics, 2010 500 likely voters (IVR) 1,000 likely voters (IVR) voters likely voters (IVR) Oct. 20-27; 800 registered voters 808 adults 1,005 registered voters Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Reid lost his first bid for the Senate Specter lost in the Republican In 1998, Crist challenged then- The last two Republican Senate Perry, who succeeded George W. Strickland ran unsuccessfully Democrat Jerry Brown has run Grayson’s House district voted According to the blog Smart Shea-Porter won her seat in 2006 in 1974 by 628 votes. primary in his first Senate bid in Sen. Bob Graham (D) and lost by nominees in Illinois have failed Bush as governor in December for Congress three times before for statewide office five times — for GOP Gov. Jeb Bush in 2002, Politics, Bachmann made 44 over Rep. Jeb Bradley, 51 percent 1976. Four years later, he ran 62 percent to 38 percent. to break 30 percent in the 2000, has served longer than winning on his fourth try in 1992. winning four races — and also has George W. Bush in 2004, GOP national cable news program to 49 percent, then defeated again for the Senate and won. general election. any other governor in Texas He then lost his House seat in three unsuccessful presidential Gov. Charlie Crist in 2006 and appearances between January Bradley again in a 2008 rematch, history. 1994 but won it back in 1996. campaigns under his belt. Barack Obama in 2008. 2008 and August 2009. 52 percent to 46 percent.