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2014 NEW ZEALAND GENERAL ELECTION

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS BY ELECTORATE, AREA AND REGION

DECEMBER 2014

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CONTENTS

CONTENTS ...... 2 INTRODUCTION ...... 3 2014 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS ...... 4 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2011 TO 2014 ...... 5 2014 PARTY VOTE BY REGION ...... 6 2014 PARTY VOTE BY AREA ...... 7 PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2011 – 2014 BY REGION ...... 8 PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2011 – 2014 BY AREA ...... 8 NATIONAL 2014 PARTY VOTE ...... 9 NATIONAL 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 10 NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE ...... 11 NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 12 NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 13 NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 14 NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 15 NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 16 NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE ...... 17 NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE MARGINS ...... 18 2014 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES ...... 19 LABOUR 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 20 LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 21 LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE ...... 22 LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE ...... 23 LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14...... 24 LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 25 GREENS 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 26 GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14...... 27 NZ FIRST 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 28 NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 29 CONSERVATIVE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 30 CONSERVATIVE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 31 MAORI PARTY 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 32 MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 33 MANA PARTY 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 34 MANA PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 35 ACT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 36 ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 37 UNITED FUTURE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 38 UNITED FUTURE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 39 RIGHT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (National/ACT/United Future/Conservative) ...... 40 sCENTRE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (NZ First/Maori) ...... 40 LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Labour/Greens/ /Mana) ...... 42 RIGHT – LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE ...... 43 RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 44 LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14 ...... 45 2014 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS ...... 46 2014 TURNOUT ...... 47 2014 PARTY VOTE PLACINGS ...... 48 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PLACINGS ...... 49

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected] - 3 -

INTRODUCTION

This document shows results for National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, Conservatives, Maori Party, Mana (and Internet) Party and ACT for the country, by region and area and for each of the 70 electorates. Generally each page has the electorates ranked in order from “best” to “worst” for that particular criterion.

Electorates have been grouped into the five National Party Regions (plus a “Maori” Region) and also have been grouped into Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Provincial, and Rural areas so results can be compared for these groupings.

Parties have also been grouped together for bloc analysis. The following definitions have been used:

R = Right = National + ACT + United Future

C = Centre = NZ First + Maori Party

L = Left = Labour + Greens + Mana (including Internet Party))

R – L = Gap between votes for the right and the left parties

Right parties are those who committed to a National-led Government.

Centre parties are those who said they could support either National or Labour, and were not ruled out be either.

Left parties are those who generally would not support a National-led Government.

Note different definitions were used in my 2011 analysis, based on the different stances at the time. However in this document the above definitions have been used for both 2014 and 2011 so that any comparisons are valid.

The 2011 results have been manually adjusted to reflect the 2013 boundary changes. Polling places were moved to their new electorates and special votes proportionally allocated to calculate nominal votes and percentages for the 2014 electorates using the 2011 vote. This of course assumes people vote at their local polling place, which will not be the case for all voters, but is for most.

Inquiries or requests for further information are welcome.

David Farrar 03 December 2014

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2014 OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS

% of % of all Party effective Seat Electorate List Total Party Party Votes party Entitlement Seats Seats Seats Votes vote

National 1,131,501 47.04% 50.17% 60 41 19 60 Labour 604,535 25.13% 26.80% 32 27 5 32 Greens 257,359 10.70% 11.41% 14 0 14 14 NZ First 208,300 8.66% 9.24% 11 0 11 11 Maori 31,849 1.32% 1.41% 2 1 1 2 ACT 16,689 0.69% 0.74% 1 1 0 1 United 5,286 0.22% 0.23% 0 1 0 1 Future

SUB-TOTAL 2,255,519 93.76% 100.00% 120 71 50 121

Conservative 95,598 3.97%

Internet 34,094 1.42% Mana ALCP 10,961 0.46% Ban 1080 5,113 0.21%

Democrats 1,730 0.07%

Civilian 1,096 0.05% NZIC 872 0.04% Focus 639 0.03% TOTAL 2,405,622 100.00%

Right 51.92% 1,249,074

Centre 9.98% 240,149

Left 37.25% 895,988

R – L 353,086 14.68%

The vote for centre-right parties was almost 15% higher than the vote for centre-left parties. Also of note is that National got over 50% of the “effective” vote.

The wasted vote was 6.2%, up from 3.4% in 2011 and close to the 6.6% wasted in 2008. Conservatives were the highest of the parties that did not make it.

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OVERALL ELECTION RESULTS CHANGES 2011 TO 2014

2011 Party Party 2014 Electorate 2014 2011 Vote Vote % Party Party Vote Electorate Electorate Change Vote % Change % Vote % Vote % %

National -0.27% 47.04% 47.31% -1.23% 46.08% 47.31% Labour -2.35% 25.13% 27.48% -0.99% 34.13% 35.12% Greens -0.36% 10.70% 11.06% -0.10% 7.06% 7.16% NZ First 2.07% 8.66% 6.59% 1.29% 3.13% 1.84% Maori -0.11% 1.32% 1.43% -0.02% 1.79% 1.81% Mana 0.34% 1.42% 1.08% 0.20% 1.57% 1.37% ACT -0.38% 0.69% 1.07% -0.25% 1.18% 1.43% United Future -0.38% 0.22% 0.60% -0.24% 0.63% 0.87% SUB-TOTAL -1.44% 95.18% 96.62% -1.34% 95.57% 96.91% Conservatives 1.32% 3.97% 2.65% 1.07% 3.45% 2.38% Others 0.12% 0.85% 0.73% 0.25% 0.98% 0.73% TOTAL 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Right 0.29% 51.92% 51.63% -0.65% 51.34% 51.99% Centre 1.96% 9.98% 8.02% 1.27% 4.92% 3.65% Left -2.37% 37.25% 39.62% -0.89% 42.76% 43.65%

R – L 2.66% 14.67% 12.01% 0.24% 8.58% 8.34%

The gap between right and left grew by almost 3%. This was mainly due to the increase for Conservatives and decline for Labour.

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2014 PARTY VOTE BY REGION

Party Northern CNI LNI C/W Southern Maori

National 49.3% 54.7% 45.7% 50.6% 48.5% 7.9% Labour 26.1% 18.5% 26.4% 22.4% 24.6% 41.2% Greens 9.6% 7.9% 12.9% 12.3% 12.3% 11.2% NZ First 7.5% 11.2% 8.2% 7.8% 8.0% 13.0% Maori 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 14.0% Mana 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 10.2% ACT 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% United Future 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Conservatives 4.1% 4.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 0.6%

Right 54.9% 60.2% 50.5% 55.3% 52.8% 8.7% Centre 7.9% 11.9% 8.7% 8.2% 8.3% 27.0% Left 36.7% 27.1% 40.1% 35.4% 37.7% 62.6%

R – L 18.2% 33.1% 10.4% 19.9% 15.1% -53.9%

The above figures are on the boundaries of the five National Party Regions. The seven Maori seats are treated as a de facto sixth Region to allow a cleaner comparison from Region to Region.

National got over 50% in the CNI and C/W Regions. LNI was the lowest Region at 45.7%

LNI Region is the best area for Labour at 26.4% followed by Northern at 26.1%. They are weakest in CNI at 18.5%.

NZ First was strongest in CNI Region at 11.2% and the Maori seats at 13.0%.

Maori and Mana parties were at or below 1% everywhere except the Maori seats where they got 14.0% and 10.2% of the party votes respectively

ACT support is higher in Northern with 1.3%.

Support for the Greens was best in LNI at 12.9%.

Conservatives did best in the CNI Region at 4.9%.

The gap between National and Labour for each Region was:

Northern +23.2% CNI +36.2% LNI +19.3% C/W +28.2% Southern +23.9%

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2014 PARTY VOTE BY AREA

Party Auckland Wgtn Chch Provincial Rural Maori

National 48.6% 41.3% 48.5% 48.4% 56.7% 7.9% Labour 27.7% 27.8% 24.4% 24.3% 16.5% 41.2% Greens 9.7% 17.7% 13.4% 9.9% 8.7% 11.2% NZ First 6.8% 6.4% 7.5% 9.8% 10.1% 13.0% Maori 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0% Mana 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 10.2% ACT 1.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% United Future 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Conservatives 3.9% 2.7% 3.5% 4.6% 5.1% 0.6%

Right 54.1% 44.9% 52.8% 53.6% 62.4% 8.7% Centre 7.2% 7.0% 7.9% 10.3% 10.6% 27.0% Left 38.4% 46.5% 38.5% 35.0% 25.8% 62.6%

R – L 15.7% -1.6% 14.3% 18.6% 36.6% -53.9%

 Auckland is defined as the 21 seats in greater Auckland stretching from Rodney in the North to Papakura in the South.  Wellington is the six seats South of and including Mana and Rimutaka.  Christchurch is the six seats wholly or mainly in Christchurch including Waimakariri and Port Hills.  Provincial are those 17 seats which have more than 50% of their population in minor cities such as Nelson, New Plymouth, Dunedin, Hamilton, Napier etc.  Rural are the 14 seats where less than 50% of the population live in a city.

Labour is strongest in Wellington at 27.8% and weakest in rural NZ at 16.5%

National is lowest in Wellington at 41.3% and highest in rural NZ at 56.7%.

NZ First does very well in provincial and rural NZ and worst in Wellington.

ACT is strongest in Auckland.

Greens are very high in Wellington at 17.7% and also Christchurch at 13.4%.

United Future also strongest in Wellington.

Conservatives did best in rural NZ, where they exceeded 5%.

The gap between National and Labour for each area was:

Auckland +20.9% Wellington +13.5% Christchurch +24.1% Provincial +24.1% Rural +40.2%

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PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2011 – 2014 BY REGION

Party Northern CNI LNI C/W Southern Maori

National -0.5% 0.7% 0.3% -0.4% 0.1% -0.7% Labour -2.6% -1.8% -3.0% -2.7% -2.3% 0.2% Greens 0.2% -1.3% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% 0.9% NZ First 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 3.5% Maori -0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -1.6% Mana 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% -2.8% ACT -0.1% -0.8% -0.5% -0.3% -0.8% -0.1% United Future -0.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.6% -0.5% 0.0%

Conservatives 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 0.1%

Right 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% -0.7% Centre 1.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% Left -1.8% -2.8% -2.9% -2.8% -2.4% -1.7%

R – L 2.3% 3.6% 3.7% 2.9% 2.8% 1.0%

National had the biggest increases in CNI and biggest decrease in Northern.

Labour’s biggest declines were in C/W and Northern Regions.

The Greens went up in Northern and dropped elsewhere.

In terms of the gap between right and left it increased by 0.1% in C/W to 0.8% in Northern and CNI.

PARTY VOTE CHANGE 2011 – 2014 BY AREA

Party Auckland Wgtn Chch Provincial Rural Maori

National -0.5% 0.2% -0.9% 0.1% 0.5% -0.7% Labour -2.7% -4.3% -2.3% -2.5% -2.3% 0.2% Greens 0.3% 0.5% -0.3% -1.0% -1.2% 0.9% NZ First 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.4% 3.5% Maori -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% -1.6% Mana 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% -2.8% ACT 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% -0.6% -0.9% -0.1% United Future -0.2% -0.5% -0.4% -0.5% -0.6% 0.0%

Conservatives 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 0.1%

Right 0.8% 0.5% -0.1% 0.7% 0.4% -0.7% Centre 1.2% 1.7% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 1.9% Left -1.8% -3.2% -2.1% -3.0% -3.2% -1.7%

R – L 2.6% 3.7% 2.0% 3.7% 3.6% 1.0%

National gained the most (0.5%) in rural NZ and dropped the most (0.9%) in Christchurch..

Labour lost the most in Wellington (4.3%) and lost the least (2.3%) in Christchurch and rural NZ.

Greens did best in Wellington with a 0.5% increase in their vote, but dropped 1.0% in provincial NZ and 1.2% in rural NZ.

The right-left margin increased by 3.7% in Wellington and provincial NZ and only 2.0% in Christchurch.

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NATIONAL 2014 PARTY VOTE

1 Tamaki 24,091 37 Northland 17,412 2 Rodney 24,051 38 Hamilton East 17,395 3 Epsom 23,904 39 East Coast 17,152 4 North Shore 23,762 40 Nelson 16,904 5 Hunua 22,929 41 Invercargill 16,880 6 Selwyn 22,809 42 Whanganui 16,687 7 Waitaki 22,656 43 Hamilton West 16,072 8 Clutha Southland 21,694 44 West Coast Tasman 16,058 9 Waikato 21,598 45 Rimutaka 15,352 10 Bay of Plenty 21,096 46 Christchurch Central 15,301 11 New Plymouth 20,969 47 Dunedin South 15,003 12 East Coast Bays 20,895 48 Mana 14,850 13 Pakuranga 20,854 49 Palmerston North 14,835 14 Kaikoura 20,770 50 Wellington Central 14,689 15 Waimakariri 20,734 51 Maungakiekie 14,394 16 Tauranga 20,728 52 Mt Albert 14,359 17 Taupo 20,703 53 Mt Roskill 14,275 18 Helensville 20,689 54 Te Atatu 13,614 19 Taranaki-King Country 20,637 55 New Lynn 13,136 20 Coromandel 20,547 56 Wigram 13,117 21 Ilam 20,377 57 Christchurch East 12,928 22 Rangitata 20,108 58 Auckland Central 12,652 23 Botany 20,016 59 Rongotai 12,606 24 Wairarapa 19,634 60 Dunedin North 11,302 25 Otaki 18,854 61 Kelston 9,924 26 Ohariu 18,810 62 Manurewa 7,612 27 Port Hills 18,719 63 Manukau East 5,392 28 Tukituki 18,680 64 Mangere 4,281 29 Rangitikei 18,596 65 Te Tai Tonga 2,977 30 Whangarei 18,503 66 Te Tai Tokerau 1,938 31 Upper Harbour 18,122 67 Hauraki-Waikato 1,583 32 Napier 18,005 68 Tamaki Makaurau 1,575 33 Northcote 17,900 69 Te Tai Hauauru 1,456 34 Papakura 17,733 70 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 1,189 35 Rotorua 17,660 71 Waiariki 1,120 36 Hutt South 17,648

Tamaki had the highest absolute party vote for National at 24,091 with Rodney second on 24,051.

In total 33 electorates got a party vote over 20,000 – ten more than in 2011.

47 (+5) seats got a party vote over 15,000 and 60 (+1) seats had a party vote over 10,000.

The median electorate was Hutt South on 17,648 votes and the worst electorates after the Maori seats were Mangere and Manukau East.

The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage National got is seen as a more useful comparison.

Port Hills in 27th place had the highest party vote of the seats we contested (excluding Epsom and Ohariu) but did not win. Conversely Auckland Central in 58th place had the lowest party vote of the seats National did win.

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NATIONAL 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Tamaki 65.7% 37 Northland 49.0% 2 Hunua 63.9% 38 East Coast 48.6% 3 Epsom 63.6% 39 Hamilton West 47.7% 4 Selwyn 63.6% 40 Whanganui 47.3% 5 East Coast Bays 63.4% 41 Port Hills 47.0% 6 Clutha Southland 63.4% 42 Hutt South 45.3% 7 North Shore 61.7% 43 Auckland Central 44.9% 8 Taranaki-King Country 61.5% 44 West Coast Tasman 44.8% 9 Rodney 61.2% 45 Christchurch Central 44.7% 10 Pakuranga 60.4% 46 Nelson 44.4% 11 Waikato 60.2% 47 Palmerston North 43.2% 12 Botany 59.6% 48 Wigram 42.9% 13 Helensville 58.5% 49 Mt Roskill 42.1% 14 Ilam 57.7% 50 Maungakiekie 41.6% 15 Bay of Plenty 57.7% 51 Rimutaka 41.5% 16 Waimakariri 57.5% 52 Te Atatu 41.1% 17 Waitaki 57.2% 53 Mana 40.5% 18 Taupo 57.1% 54 Dunedin South 39.9% 19 Kaikoura 56.6% 55 Christchurch East 39.8% 20 New Plymouth 55.8% 56 New Lynn 39.2% 21 Tauranga 55.8% 57 Mt Albert 39.1% 22 Rangitata 55.6% 58 Wellington Central 37.6% 23 Upper Harbour 54.5% 59 Rongotai 32.7% 24 Coromandel 54.2% 60 Kelston 32.3% 25 Rangitikei 53.6% 61 Dunedin North 32.3% 26 Wairarapa 52.5% 62 Manurewa 27.7% 27 Rotorua 52.1% 63 Manukau East 20.3% 28 Tukituki 52.0% 64 Mangere 15.7% 29 Papakura 51.3% 65 Te Tai Tonga 14.4% 30 Northcote 50.7% 66 Te Tai Tokerau 8.6% 31 Ohariu 50.4% 67 Tamaki Makaurau 7.6% 32 Whangarei 50.2% 68 Hauraki-Waikato 7.6% 33 Hamilton East 50.0% 69 Te Tai Hauauru 7.1% 34 Invercargill 49.5% 70 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 5.5% 35 Napier 49.4% 71 Waiariki 5.1% 36 Otaki 49.1%

On a percentage basis Tamaki had the best party vote for National at 65.7% followed by Hunua and Epsom.

11 (-2) electorates got over 60% party vote, and 33 (+1) electorates got over 50% party vote. 53 (+2) electorates got over 40% party vote.

Napier in 35th place was the highest polling seat of those National did not win but contested. Maungakiekie in 50th place had the lowest party vote percentage of the seats National did win.

The median electorate is Otaki on 49.1%.

Apart from the Maori seats Mangere, Manukau East and Manurewa were worse for National on 15.7%, 20.3% and 27.7%.

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NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE

1 Tamaki 25,539 33 East Coast 18,074 2 Selwyn 24,625 34 Invercargill 17,526 3 Waitaki 24,547 35 Hamilton West 17,382 4 Rodney 24,519 36 Waimakariri 17,263 5 North Shore 23,783 37 Wairarapa 16,223 6 Hunua 23,621 38 Maungakiekie 16,132 7 Rangitata 23,518 39 Hutt South 16,127 8 Waikato 22,911 40 Port Hills 15,933 9 Helensville 22,720 41 Papakura 15,588 10 Taupo 22,448 42 Christchurch Central 15,346 11 Taranaki-King Country 22,328 43 Palmerston North 14,673 12 Coromandel 21,934 44 Dunedin South 14,324 13 Bay of Plenty 21,735 45 Te Atatu 12,863 14 New Plymouth 21,566 46 West Coast Tasman 12,653 15 Clutha Southland 21,561 47 Rimutaka 12,622 16 Botany 21,044 48 Auckland Central 12,494 17 Otaki 20,980 49 New Lynn 11,977 18 Kaikoura 20,857 50 Epsom 11,716 19 Tauranga 20,711 51 Mana 11,698 20 Rangitikei 20,487 52 Wellington Central 11,540 21 Pakuranga 20,388 53 Napier 11,493 22 Whangarei 20,111 54 Wigram 11,189 23 Nelson 20,000 55 Christchurch East 11,148 24 Ilam 19,981 56 Mt Roskill 10,546 25 East Coast Bays 19,957 57 Dunedin North 10,398 26 Northcote 19,696 58 Mt Albert 10,314 27 Hamilton East 19,393 59 Kelston 9,724 28 Rotorua 18,715 60 Rongotai 9,223 29 Whanganui 18,649 61 Manurewa 7,636 30 Tukituki 18,537 62 Ohariu 6,120 31 Upper Harbour 18,315 63 Manukau East 4,422 32 Northland 18,269 64 Mangere 3,975

Tamaki had the highest electorate vote for National at 25,539 with Selwyn and Waitaki following.

23 (+7) National MPs managed to attract over 20,000 votes.

The median electorate was Northland on 18,269 votes and the worst electorates (Maori seats were not contested) were Mangere and Manukau East.

The number of electors who vote in each electorate can vary by over 10,000 so generally the percentage National got is seen as a more useful comparison.

Hutt South in 39th place had the highest electorate vote of the seats National contested but did not win. Conversely Auckland Central in 48th place had the lowest electorate vote of the seats National did win.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Tamaki 71.4% 33 Tukituki 52.5% 2 Selwyn 70.0% 34 East Coast 52.4% 3 Taranaki-King Country 68.2% 35 Invercargill 52.1% 4 Hunua 67.6% 36 Waimakariri 48.6% 5 Rangitata 67.2% 37 Maungakiekie 48.4% 6 Waikato 65.7% 38 Papakura 46.8% 7 Helensville 65.6% 39 Christchurch Central 46.2% 8 Botany 65.1% 40 Auckland Central 45.8% 9 Clutha Southland 64.1% 41 Wairarapa 43.9% 10 Rodney 63.4% 42 Palmerston North 43.5% 11 North Shore 63.1% 43 Hutt South 42.0% 12 Taupo 63.1% 44 Port Hills 40.7% 13 Waitaki 63.0% 45 Te Atatu 40.0% 14 East Coast Bays 61.9% 46 Dunedin South 38.7% 15 Pakuranga 61.0% 47 Wigram 37.7% 16 Bay of Plenty 60.7% 48 New Lynn 36.9% 17 Rangitikei 60.3% 49 West Coast Tasman 35.7% 18 Coromandel 58.7% 50 Christchurch East 35.2% 19 New Plymouth 58.4% 51 Rimutaka 34.7% 20 Ilam 58.1% 52 Kelston 32.8% 21 Kaikoura 57.7% 53 Mana 32.6% 22 Hamilton East 57.4% 54 Napier 32.0% 23 Northcote 57.0% 55 Mt Roskill 32.0% 24 Tauranga 56.9% 56 Epsom 31.9% 25 Upper Harbour 56.5% 57 Wellington Central 30.3% 26 Rotorua 56.3% 58 Dunedin North 30.2% 27 Whangarei 55.6% 59 Manurewa 29.5% 28 Otaki 55.4% 60 Mt Albert 28.9% 29 Whanganui 53.7% 61 Rongotai 24.4% 30 Nelson 53.4% 62 Manukau East 17.4% 31 Hamilton West 53.1% 63 Ohariu 16.6% 32 Northland 52.7% 64 Mangere 15.2%

Tamaki is the only National seat with over 70% of the vote – 71.4%. Following that are Selwyn, Taranaki-King Country and Hunua.

17 seats (nc) had electorate votes of over 60% and 35 (-1) seats had an absolute majority of over 50%.

Palmerston North on 43.5% in 42nd place had the highest electorate vote percentage of any seat which National did not win. Auckland Central in 40th place had the lowest percentage on 45.8% of a seat National did win.

National’s electorate vote percentage was lowest in Mangere, Ohariu, Manukau East, and Rongotai.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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NATIONAL PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 38 Invercargill -0.4% 49.5% 49.9% 1 New Lynn 3.2% 39.2% 36.0% 39 Whangarei -0.4% 50.2% 50.7% 2 Rangitata 2.4% 55.6% 53.2% 40 North Shore -0.5% 61.7% 62.2% New 41 Te Tai Tonga -0.5% 14.4% 14.9% 3 Plymouth 2.3% 55.8% 53.6% Hamilton 4 Otaki 2.2% 49.1% 46.9% 42 East -0.5% 50.0% 50.5% 5 Waitaki 1.9% 57.2% 55.3% Ikaroa- 6 Coromandel 1.8% 54.2% 52.3% 43 Rawhiti -0.5% 5.5% 6.0% 7 Manurewa 1.6% 27.7% 26.1% 44 Te Atatu -0.5% 41.1% 41.7% 8 Mangere 1.3% 15.7% 14.4% 45 Whanganui -0.5% 47.3% 47.8% 9 Ohariu 1.2% 50.4% 49.2% 46 Papakura -0.6% 51.3% 51.8% 10 Kaikoura 1.2% 56.6% 55.4% 47 Rimutaka -0.6% 41.5% 42.0% 11 Wairarapa 1.0% 52.5% 51.5% 48 Tukituki -0.6% 52.0% 52.6% 12 Taupo 0.8% 57.1% 0.563 Te Tai 13 Tauranga 0.8% 55.8% 55.0% 49 Tokerau -0.6% 8.6% 9.2% 14 Mt Albert 0.8% 39.1% 38.3% 50 Ilam -0.6% 57.7% 58.3% Manukau 51 Waiariki -0.6% 5.1% 5.7% 15 East 0.7% 20.3% 19.6% Te Tai 16 Bay of Plenty 0.7% 57.7% 57.0% 52 Hauauru -0.7% 7.1% 7.8% 17 Hunua 0.7% 63.9% 63.2% 53 East Coast -0.7% 48.6% 49.4% Tamaki 18 Hutt South 0.7% 45.3% 44.6% 54 Makaurau -0.8% 7.6% 8.4% 19 Selwyn 0.7% 63.6% 62.9% 55 Epsom -0.9% 63.6% 64.5% 20 Mana 0.6% 40.5% 40.0% Palmerston Clutha 56 North -0.9% 43.2% 44.1% 21 Southland 0.5% 63.4% 62.9% 57 Nelson -1.0% 44.4% 45.4% 22 Waikato 0.4% 60.2% 59.8% West Coast 23 Napier 0.4% 49.4% 49.0% 58 Tasman -1.0% 44.8% 45.8% 24 Tamaki 0.4% 65.7% 65.3% 59 Northland -1.2% 49.0% 50.1% Hamilton 60 Wigram -1.2% 42.9% 44.1% 25 West 0.3% 47.7% 47.5% Christchurch Auckland 61 Central -1.3% 44.7% 45.9% 26 Central 0.2% 44.9% 44.7% 62 Helensville -1.3% 58.5% 59.8% 27 Rangitikei 0.2% 53.6% 53.5% Dunedin Hauraki- 63 North -1.5% 32.3% 33.7% 28 Waikato 0.1% 7.6% 7.5% East Coast 29 Mt Roskill 0.1% 42.1% 42.0% 64 Bays -1.5% 63.4% 64.9% Taranaki- 65 Northcote -1.6% 50.7% 52.3% 30 King Country 0.1% 61.5% 61.4% 66 Botany -2.1% 59.6% 61.7% Dunedin 31 South 0.1% 39.9% 39.8% 67 Pakuranga -2.4% 60.4% 62.8% Upper 32 Waimakariri 0.0% 57.5% 57.5% 68 Harbour -2.6% 54.5% 57.0% 33 Rongotai -0.3% 32.7% 33.0% 69 Port Hills -2.6% 47.0% 49.6% 34 Rodney -0.3% 61.2% 61.5% 70 Kelston -3.7% 32.3% 36.0% 35 Maungakiekie -0.4% 41.6% 42.0% Christchurch Wellington 71 East -4.4% 39.8% 44.2% 36 Central -0.4% 37.6% 38.0% 37 Rotorua -0.4% 52.1% 52.4%

32 of 70 electorate increased the party vote. New Lynn had the largest increase at 3.2%, followed by Rangitata at 2.4%%, new Plymouth at 2.3% and Otaki on 2.2%.

The seat with the largest decreases for National were Christchurch East, Kelston and Port Hills.

11 seats had an increase of 1% or more, and 15 seats an decrease of 1% or more.

The median electorate was Wellington Central with a 0.4% decrease.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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NATIONAL PARTY VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 38 Whangarei -0.8% 50.2% 50.7% 1 Mangere 9.0% 15.7% 14.4% 39 Maungakiekie -0.9% 41.6% 42.0% 2 New Lynn 9.0% 39.2% 36.0% Hamilton 3 Manurewa 6.0% 27.7% 26.1% 40 East -1.0% 50.0% 50.5% 4 Otaki 4.6% 49.1% 46.9% Wellington 5 Rangitata 4.5% 55.6% 53.2% 41 Central -1.0% 37.6% 38.0% New 42 Ilam -1.1% 57.7% 58.3% 6 Plymouth 4.2% 55.8% 53.6% 43 Papakura -1.1% 51.3% 51.8% Manukau 44 Tukituki -1.1% 52.0% 52.6% 7 East 3.7% 20.3% 19.6% 45 Whanganui -1.1% 47.3% 47.8% 8 Coromandel 3.5% 54.2% 52.3% 46 Te Atatu -1.3% 41.1% 41.7% 9 Waitaki 3.4% 57.2% 55.3% 47 Epsom -1.3% 63.6% 64.5% 10 Ohariu 2.5% 50.4% 49.2% 48 Rimutaka -1.4% 41.5% 42.0% 11 Kaikoura 2.2% 56.6% 55.4% 49 East Coast -1.5% 48.6% 49.4% 12 Mt Albert 2.0% 39.1% 38.3% Palmerston 13 Wairarapa 1.9% 52.5% 51.5% 50 North -2.1% 43.2% 44.1% 14 Hutt South 1.5% 45.3% 44.6% 51 Helensville -2.2% 58.5% 59.8% 15 Taupo 1.4% 57.1% 0.563 52 Nelson -2.2% 44.4% 45.4% 16 Mana 1.4% 40.5% 40.0% West Coast 17 Tauranga 1.4% 55.8% 55.0% 53 Tasman -2.2% 44.8% 45.8% Hauraki- East Coast 18 Waikato 1.3% 7.6% 7.5% 54 Bays -2.3% 63.4% 64.9% 19 Bay of Plenty 1.2% 57.7% 57.0% 55 Northland -2.3% 49.0% 50.1% 20 Hunua 1.1% 63.9% 63.2% 56 Wigram -2.7% 42.9% 44.1% Christchurch 21 Selwyn 1.0% 63.6% 62.9% 57 Central -2.8% 44.7% 45.9% 22 Napier 0.8% 49.4% 49.0% 58 Northcote -3.0% 50.7% 52.3% Clutha 23 Southland 0.8% 63.4% 62.9% 59 Te Tai Tonga -3.2% 14.4% 14.9% 24 Waikato 0.7% 60.2% 59.8% 60 Botany -3.4% 59.6% 61.7% Hamilton 61 Pakuranga -3.8% 60.4% 62.8% 25 West 0.6% 47.7% 47.5% Dunedin 26 Tamaki 0.5% 65.7% 65.3% 62 North -4.3% 32.3% 33.7% Auckland Upper 27 Central 0.5% 44.9% 44.7% 63 Harbour -4.5% 54.5% 57.0% 28 Rangitikei 0.3% 53.6% 53.5% 64 Port Hills -5.2% 47.0% 49.6% Te Tai 29 Mt Roskill 0.2% 42.1% 42.0% 65 Tokerau -6.7% 8.6% 9.2% Dunedin Ikaroa- 30 South 0.1% 39.9% 39.8% 66 Rawhiti -8.8% 5.5% 6.0% Taranaki- Te Tai 31 King Country 0.1% 61.5% 61.4% 67 Hauauru -8.9% 7.1% 7.8% 32 Waimakariri 0.0% 57.5% 57.5% Tamaki 33 Rodney -0.5% 61.2% 61.5% 68 Makaurau -9.3% 7.6% 8.4% 34 North Shore -0.7% 61.7% 62.2% Christchurch 35 Rotorua -0.7% 52.1% 52.4% 69 East -9.9% 39.8% 44.2% 36 Rongotai -0.8% 32.7% 33.0% 70 Kelston -10.2% 32.3% 36.0% 37 Invercargill -0.8% 49.5% 49.9% 71 Waiariki -11.0% 5.1% 5.7%

The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2011 vote.

Mangere and New Lynn saw National grow their vote 9% in a relative sense.

The median increase was -0.8% in Rongotai.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 34 Rotorua -1.4% 56.3% 57.7% 1 Rangitata 12.3% 67.2% 55.0% 35 Northcote -1.4% 57.0% 58.5% 2 Rodney 10.5% 63.4% 52.9% Wellington 3 Hutt South 6.5% 42.0% 35.4% 36 Central -1.7% 30.3% 32.0% 4 New Lynn 4.5% 36.9% 32.4% Taranaki-King 5 New Plymouth 4.5% 58.4% 53.9% 37 Country -2.2% 68.2% 70.4% 6 Otaki 3.8% 55.4% 51.6% 38 Wigram -2.3% 37.7% 40.0% 7 East Coast 3.5% 52.4% 48.9% 39 Ilam -2.3% 58.1% 60.4% 8 Coromandel 3.5% 58.7% 55.2% 40 Kelston -2.5% 32.8% 35.3% 9 Manukau East 3.3% 17.4% 14.1% 41 Invercargill -2.5% 52.1% 54.6% 10 Tamaki 2.8% 71.4% 68.6% 42 Kaikoura -2.5% 57.7% 60.2% Auckland 11 Manurewa 2.6% 29.5% 26.9% 43 Central -2.8% 45.8% 48.6% 12 Mangere 2.6% 15.2% 12.6% 44 Mt Albert -2.9% 28.9% 31.8% Palmerston 13 North 2.4% 43.5% 41.1% 45 Ohariu -3.0% 16.6% 19.6% Christchurch 46 Whangarei -3.6% 55.6% 59.2% 14 Central 2.0% 46.2% 44.2% 47 Dunedin North -3.8% 30.2% 34.1% 15 Dunedin South 1.9% 38.7% 36.8% 48 Upper Harbour -4.0% 56.5% 60.6% 16 Rangitikei 1.8% 60.3% 58.5% West Coast 17 Waitaki 1.5% 63.0% 61.4% 49 Tasman -4.1% 35.7% 39.9% 18 Waikato 1.1% 65.7% 64.6% 50 Rimutaka -4.4% 34.7% 39.1% Clutha 19 Hamilton East 1.1% 57.4% 56.3% 51 Southland -4.8% 64.1% 68.8% 20 Hunua 1.0% 67.6% 66.5% 52 Northland -4.8% 52.7% 57.5% 21 Helensville 1.0% 65.6% 64.6% 53 Pakuranga -4.8% 61.0% 65.9% 22 Maungakiekie 0.8% 48.4% 47.6% 54 Tauranga -5.4% 56.9% 62.3% 23 Waimakariri 0.7% 48.6% 47.9% 55 Port Hills -5.7% 40.7% 46.4% 24 North Shore 0.7% 63.1% 62.4% 56 Tukituki -5.9% 52.5% 58.4% 25 Botany 0.5% 65.1% 64.6% East Coast 26 Hamilton West 0.3% 53.1% 52.8% 57 Bays -6.0% 61.9% 67.9% 27 Nelson 0.2% 53.4% 53.1% 58 Bay of Plenty -6.2% 60.7% 66.9% 28 Selwyn 0.0% 70.0% 69.9% 59 Mt Roskill -6.3% 32.0% 38.3% 29 Te Atatu -0.4% 40.0% 40.3% 60 Epsom -6.3% 31.9% 38.2% 30 Whanganui -0.5% 53.7% 54.2% 61 Wairarapa -8.8% 43.9% 52.6% 31 Taupo -0.5% 63.1% 63.7% 62 Mana -9.3% 32.6% 42.0% Christchurch 63 Papakura -12.0% 46.8% 58.8% 32 East -0.9% 35.2% 36.2% 64 Napier -20.2% 32.0% 52.2% 33 Rongotai -1.0% 24.4% 25.4%

Rangitata had the largest electorate vote increase at 12.3% followed by Rodney on 10.5% and Hutt South on 6.5%.

The biggest increase for a seat National did not win after Hutt South was new Lynn at 4.5% and Manukau East on 3.3%.

National increased the electorate vote % in 28 seats and had it drop in 36 seats.

The median electorate was Christchurch East with a 0.9% decrease.

The largest drops were in Napier 20.2%, Papakura 12.0%, Mana 9.3% and Wairarapa 8.8%

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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NATIONAL ELECTORATE VOTE RELATIVE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 Taranaki-King 1 Manukau East 23.6% 17.4% 14.1% 35 Country -3.1% 68.2% 70.4% 2 Rangitata 22.3% 67.2% 55.0% 36 Ilam -3.8% 58.1% 60.4% 3 Mangere 20.9% 15.2% 12.6% 37 Rongotai -3.9% 24.4% 25.4% 4 Rodney 19.9% 63.4% 52.9% 38 Kaikoura -4.2% 57.7% 60.2% 5 Hutt South 18.4% 42.0% 35.4% 39 Invercargill -4.6% 52.1% 54.6% 6 New Lynn 14.0% 36.9% 32.4% Wellington 7 Manurewa 9.8% 29.5% 26.9% 40 Central -5.4% 30.3% 32.0% 8 New Plymouth 8.3% 58.4% 53.9% 41 Wigram -5.7% 37.7% 40.0% Auckland 9 Otaki 7.4% 55.4% 51.6% 42 Central -5.8% 45.8% 48.6% 10 East Coast 7.2% 52.4% 48.9% 43 Whangarei -6.1% 55.6% 59.2% 11 Coromandel 6.3% 58.7% 55.2% 44 Upper Harbour -6.6% 56.5% 60.6% Palmerston Clutha 12 North 5.8% 43.5% 41.1% 45 Southland -6.9% 64.1% 68.8% 13 Dunedin South 5.1% 38.7% 36.8% 46 Kelston -7.0% 32.8% 35.3% Christchurch 14 Central 4.6% 46.2% 44.2% 47 Pakuranga -7.3% 61.0% 65.9% 15 Tamaki 4.1% 71.4% 68.6% 48 Northland -8.4% 52.7% 57.5% 16 Rangitikei 3.1% 60.3% 58.5% 49 Tauranga -8.7% 56.9% 62.3% East Coast 17 Waitaki 2.5% 63.0% 61.4% 50 Bays -8.8% 61.9% 67.9% 18 Hamilton East 1.9% 57.4% 56.3% 51 Mt Albert -9.2% 28.9% 31.8% 19 Waikato 1.7% 65.7% 64.6% 52 Bay of Plenty -9.3% 60.7% 66.9% 20 Maungakiekie 1.6% 48.4% 47.6% 53 Tukituki -10.0% 52.5% 58.4% 21 Hunua 1.6% 67.6% 66.5% West Coast 22 Waimakariri 1.5% 48.6% 47.9% 54 Tasman -10.3% 35.7% 39.9% 23 Helensville 1.5% 65.6% 64.6% 55 Rimutaka -11.2% 34.7% 39.1% 24 North Shore 1.1% 63.1% 62.4% 56 Dunedin North -11.3% 30.2% 34.1% 25 Botany 0.8% 65.1% 64.6% 57 Port Hills -12.2% 40.7% 46.4% 26 Hamilton West 0.6% 53.1% 52.8% 58 Ohariu -15.4% 16.6% 19.6% 27 Nelson 0.4% 53.4% 53.1% 59 Mt Roskill -16.4% 32.0% 38.3% 28 Selwyn 0.0% 70.0% 69.9% 60 Epsom -16.5% 31.9% 38.2% 29 Taupo -0.8% 63.1% 63.7% 61 Wairarapa -16.6% 43.9% 52.6% 30 Te Atatu -0.9% 40.0% 40.3% 62 Papakura -20.5% 46.8% 58.8% 31 Whanganui -0.9% 53.7% 54.2% 63 Mana -22.2% 32.6% 42.0% 32 Rotorua -2.4% 56.3% 57.7% 64 Napier -38.7% 32.0% 52.2% 33 Northcote -2.5% 57.0% 58.5% Christchurch 34 East -2.6% 35.2% 36.2%

The key difference between this table and the previous is the percentage change is not shown as an absolute shift in the percentage of the party vote, but the relative change as a percentage of the 2005 vote.

Manukau East had the largest relative change with a 23.6% increase, followed by Rangitata, Mangere and Rodney.

The median relative increase was Rotorua with a 2.4% relative decrease.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE

EV/PV EV PV 34 Tauranga 101.9% 56.9% 55.8% 1 Rangitata 121.0% 67.2% 55.6% 35 Kelston 101.5% 32.8% 32.3% 2 Nelson 120.1% 53.4% 44.4% 36 Clutha Southland 101.1% 64.1% 63.4% 3 Maungakiekie 116.2% 48.4% 41.6% 37 Tukituki 101.1% 52.5% 52.0% 4 Hamilton East 114.7% 57.4% 50.0% 38 Pakuranga 101.0% 61.0% 60.4% 5 Whanganui 113.6% 53.7% 0.473 Palmerston 6 Otaki 112.9% 55.4% 49.1% 39 North 100.7% 43.5% 43.2% 7 Rangitikei 112.5% 60.3% 53.6% 40 Ilam 100.6% 58.1% 57.7% 8 Northcote 112.4% 57.0% 50.7% 41 East Coast Bays 97.7% 61.9% 63.4% 9 Helensville 112.1% 65.6% 58.5% 42 Mangere 97.3% 15.2% 15.7% 10 Hamilton West 111.2% 53.1% 47.7% 43 Te Atatu 97.3% 40.0% 41.1% Taranaki-King 44 Dunedin South 97.0% 38.7% 39.9% 11 Country 110.9% 68.2% 61.5% 45 New Lynn 94.0% 36.9% 39.2% 12 Whangarei 110.6% 55.6% 0.502 46 Dunedin North 93.6% 30.2% 32.3% 13 Taupo 110.5% 63.1% 57.1% 47 Hutt South 92.6% 42.0% 45.3% 14 Waitaki 110.2% 63.0% 0.572 48 Papakura 91.2% 46.8% 51.3% 15 Selwyn 110.0% 70.0% 63.6% Christchurch 16 Botany 109.2% 65.1% 59.6% 49 East 88.5% 35.2% 39.8% 17 Waikato 109.1% 65.7% 60.2% 50 Wigram 87.9% 37.7% 0.429 18 Tamaki 108.7% 71.4% 65.7% 51 Port Hills 86.8% 40.7% 47.0% 19 Coromandel 108.4% 58.7% 54.2% 52 Manukau East 85.7% 17.4% 20.3% 20 Rotorua 108.2% 56.3% 52.1% 53 Waimakariri 84.5% 48.6% 57.5% 21 East Coast 107.7% 52.4% 48.6% 54 Rimutaka 83.7% 34.7% 41.5% 22 Northland 107.7% 52.7% 49.0% 55 Wairarapa 83.6% 43.9% 0.525 23 Manurewa 106.5% 29.5% 27.7% Wellington 24 Hunua 105.7% 67.6% 63.9% 56 Central 80.5% 30.3% 0.376 25 Invercargill 105.3% 52.1% 49.5% 57 Mana 80.5% 32.6% 40.5% West Coast 26 Bay of Plenty 105.3% 60.7% 57.7% 58 Tasman 79.8% 35.7% 0.448 27 New Plymouth 104.6% 58.4% 55.8% 59 Mt Roskill 76.0% 32.0% 42.1% 28 Upper Harbour 103.8% 56.5% 54.5% 60 Rongotai 74.5% 24.4% 32.7% 29 Rodney 103.7% 63.4% 61.2% 61 Mt Albert 73.9% 28.9% 39.1% Christchurch 30 Central 103.5% 46.2% 44.7% 62 Napier 64.8% 32.0% 49.4% 31 North Shore 102.3% 63.1% 61.7% 63 Epsom 50.1% 31.9% 63.6% 32 Auckland Central 102.0% 45.8% 44.9% 64 Ohariu 33.0% 16.6% 50.4% 33 Kaikoura 101.9% 57.7% 56.6%

This shows how National did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means the electorate vote percentage was exactly equal to the party vote percentage.

Rangitata just pipped Nelson as the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote at 121%. This was followed by Maungakiekie and Hamilton East at 116% and 115% respectively.

Manurewa was the highest of the general electorate seats National did not win at 107%.

The median seat was Auckland Central at 102.0%.

The lowest ratio for a seat National did win was Wairarapa at 83.6%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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NATIONAL 2014 ELECTORATE MARGINS

1 Selwyn 20,561 33 Wairarapa 6,771 2 Tamaki 20,421 34 Tukituki 6,490 3 Rodney 20,230 35 Hamilton West 5,784 4 Helensville 18,287 36 Papakura 5,119 5 Hunua 17,376 37 Whanganui 4,505 6 Taranaki-King Country 16,773 38 Waimakariri 2,506 7 Waitaki 16,668 39 Christchurch Central 2,420 8 North Shore 16,503 40 Maungakiekie 2,348 9 Waikato 16,169 41 Auckland Central 600 10 Coromandel 15,801 42 Hutt South - 709 11 Bay of Plenty 15,096 43 Palmerston North - 2,212 12 Taupo 15,046 44 Port Hills - 2,228 13 East Coast Bays 15,034 45 Te Atatu - 2,813 14 Clutha Southland 14,886 46 Wigram - 3,330 15 Tauranga 14,842 47 Napier - 3,850 16 Rangitata 14,107 48 Dunedin South - 3,858 17 Botany 13,495 49 Christchurch East - 4,073 18 Whangarei 13,169 50 West Coast Tasman - 4,094 19 Pakuranga 12,867 51 Epsom - 4,250 20 Kaikoura 12,570 52 New Lynn - 4,557 21 Ilam 11,898 53 Kelston - 5,367 22 Rangitikei 11,060 54 Dunedin North - 5,917 23 Hamilton East 10,199 55 Manurewa - 6,402 24 New Plymouth 9,778 56 Rimutaka - 6,664 25 Upper Harbour 9,692 57 Ohariu - 7,449 26 Northcote 9,664 58 Mana - 7,953 27 Northland 9,300 59 Mt Roskill - 8,091 28 East Coast 7,934 60 Wellington Central - 8,267 29 Otaki 7,782 61 Rongotai - 9,617 30 Nelson 7,605 62 Mt Albert - 10,656 31 Invercargill 7,482 63 Manukau East - 13,254 32 Rotorua 7,418 64 Mangere - 14,933

Please note this is the margin between the National Candidate and either the 2nd place getter or the person who won the seat. In some seats National came third or lower so the margin shown here is not necessarily the margin the seat was won by – that is on another table.

Amy Adams in Selwyn has the largest majority at 20,561. In total National won 41 seats and have margins of over 10,000 in 23 (+2) of them and over 5,000 in a further 13 (+1). National’s most marginal seat is Auckland Central on 600 votes, followed by Maungakiekie and Christchurch Central.

In three seats the National candidate was more than 10,000 votes behind the winning candidate. In a total of 12 seats the National candidate was more than 5,000 votes behind the winning candidate.

There are four seats (Hutt South, Palmerston North, Port Hills and Te Atatu) National lost by less than 3.000 votes.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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2014 ELECTORATE MAJORITIES

Majority Party 36 Otaki 7,782 NAT 1 Selwyn 20,561 NAT 37 Hauraki-Waikato 7,695 LAB 2 Tamaki 20,421 NAT 38 Nelson 7,605 NAT 3 Rodney 20,230 NAT 39 Invercargill 7,482 NAT 4 Helensville 18,287 NAT 40 Rotorua 7,418 NAT 5 Hunua 17,376 NAT 41 Wairarapa 6,771 NAT Taranaki-King 42 Rimutaka 6,664 LAB 6 Country 16,773 NAT 43 Tukituki 6,490 NAT 7 Waitaki 16,668 NAT 44 Manurewa 6,402 LAB 8 North Shore 16,503 NAT 45 Dunedin North 5,917 LAB 9 Waikato 16,169 NAT 46 Hamilton West 5,784 NAT 10 Coromandel 15,801 NAT 47 Kelston 5,367 LAB 11 Bay of Plenty 15,096 NAT 48 Papakura 5,119 NAT 12 Taupo 15,046 NAT 49 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 4,673 LAB 13 East Coast Bays 15,034 NAT 50 New Lynn 4,557 LAB 14 Mangere 14,933 LAB 51 Whanganui 4,505 NAT 15 Clutha Southland 14,886 NAT 52 Epsom 4,250 ACT 16 Tauranga 14,842 NAT 53 West Coast Tasman 4,094 LAB 17 Rangitata 14,107 NAT 54 Christchurch East 4,073 LAB 18 Botany 13,495 NAT 55 Waiariki 3,889 MAO 19 Manukau East 13,254 LAB 56 Dunedin South 3,858 LAB 20 Whangarei 13,169 NAT 57 Napier 3,850 LAB 21 Pakuranga 12,867 NAT 58 Te Tai Tonga 3,554 LAB 22 Kaikoura 12,570 NAT 59 Wigram 3,330 LAB 23 Ilam 11,898 NAT 60 Te Atatu 2,813 LAB 24 Rangitikei 11,060 NAT 61 Waimakariri 2,506 NAT 25 Mt Albert 10,656 LAB 62 Christchurch Central 2,420 NAT 26 Hamilton East 10,199 NAT 63 Maungakiekie 2,348 NAT 27 New Plymouth 9,778 NAT 64 Port Hills 2,228 LAB 28 Upper Harbour 9,692 NAT 65 Palmerston North 2,212 LAB 29 Northcote 9,664 NAT 66 Te Tai Hauauru 1,554 LAB 30 Rongotai 9,617 LAB 67 Tamaki Makaurau 1,462 MAO 31 Northland 9,300 NAT 68 Te Tai Tokerau 1,053 LAB 32 Wellington Central 8,267 LAB 33 Mt Roskill 8,091 LAB 69 Ohariu 710 UFNZ 34 Mana 7,953 LAB 70 Hutt South 709 LAB 35 East Coast 7,934 NAT 71 Auckland Central 600 NAT

National has the top 13 majorities. William Sua Sio for Labour in Mangere is the 14th. Labour’s biggest majority outside South Auckland is Mt Albert in 25th place.

There are 26 (+3) majorities over 10,000 – 23 National, and three Labour.

Of the 12 majorities below 3,000 four are National held, six are Labour held, one is Maori Party held and one is United held.

The median majority is Otaki on 7,782.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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LABOUR 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Mangere 67.6% 37 West Coast Tasman 23.5% 2 Manukau East 63.7% 38 Ohariu 23.5% 3 Manurewa 53.0% 39 Upper Harbour 23.5% 4 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 48.1% 40 Tukituki 22.8% 5 Hauraki-Waikato 46.5% 41 East Coast 22.7% 6 Te Tai Hauauru 42.2% 42 Rangitata 22.3% 7 Kelston 42.1% 43 Botany 22.3% 8 Tamaki Makaurau 40.8% 44 Northcote 22.1% 9 Waiariki 38.8% 45 Auckland Central 21.7% 10 Te Tai Tonga 36.9% 46 Rotorua 21.2% 11 New Lynn 36.1% 47 New Plymouth 21.2% 12 Mt Roskill 35.6% 48 Wairarapa 20.6% 13 Te Tai Tokerau 35.5% 49 Waimakariri 19.0% 14 Maungakiekie 35.3% 50 Taupo 18.6% 15 Te Atatu 35.0% 51 Rangitikei 18.5% 16 Mana 34.4% 52 Waitaki 18.1% 17 Dunedin South 33.3% 53 Whangarei 17.9% 18 Rimutaka 32.9% 54 Ilam 17.7% 19 Christchurch East 32.2% 55 Kaikoura 17.1% 20 Dunedin North 31.8% 56 Northland 16.6% 21 Palmerston North 31.0% 57 Pakuranga 16.0% 22 Rongotai 30.5% 58 Coromandel 15.7% 23 Mt Albert 29.5% 59 Tamaki 14.8% 24 Wigram 28.7% 60 Waikato 14.8% 25 Hutt South 28.0% 61 Clutha Southland 14.7% 26 Christchurch Central 26.3% 62 Tauranga 14.4% 27 Napier 26.0% 63 North Shore 14.2% 28 Papakura 25.9% 64 Epsom 13.4% 29 Hamilton West 25.7% Taranaki-King 30 Whanganui 25.5% 65 Country 13.4% 31 Invercargill 25.1% 66 Hunua 13.1% 32 Otaki 24.8% 67 Bay of Plenty 13.1% 33 Nelson 24.7% 68 Selwyn 13.0% 34 Port Hills 23.9% 69 Helensville 12.5% 35 Wellington Central 23.8% 70 Rodney 12.3% 36 Hamilton East 23.8% 71 East Coast Bays 12.1%

Mangere had the best party vote for Labour at 67.6% followed by Manukau East.

Labour got over 50% party vote in just three seats, and over 40% in just 8 seats. In 22 seats they got over 30%, and in 40 seats under 25%. They also got below 20% in 23 seats and below 15% in 13 seats.

Their median seat was Hamilton East at 23.8%.

The seat they did best in that National won was Maungakiekie at 35.3%.

West Coast Tasman had the lowest party vote of any seat they won. It was 37th with 23.5%, followed by Wellington Central and Port Hills.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Mangere 72.5% 37 Rotorua 34.0% 2 Manukau East 69.5% 38 Nelson 33.1% 3 Hauraki-Waikato 61.6% 39 New Plymouth 31.9% 4 Mt Albert 58.7% 40 Papakura 31.4% 5 Mt Roskill 56.5% 41 Invercargill 29.9% 6 Mana 54.8% 42 East Coast 29.4% 7 Manurewa 54.2% 43 Northcote 29.0% 8 Rimutaka 53.0% 44 Rangitikei 27.8% 9 Wellington Central 52.0% 45 Waiariki 27.3% 10 Kelston 50.9% 46 Hamilton East 27.2% 11 New Lynn 50.9% 47 Rangitata 26.9% 12 Palmerston North 50.1% 48 Upper Harbour 26.6% 13 Rongotai 49.8% 49 Northland 25.9% 14 Dunedin South 49.1% 50 Wairarapa 25.6% 15 Wigram 48.9% 51 Ilam 23.5% 16 Te Atatu 48.7% 52 Botany 23.4% 17 Christchurch East 48.1% 53 Kaikoura 22.9% 18 Dunedin North 47.4% 54 Pakuranga 22.5% 19 West Coast Tasman 47.3% 55 Taupo 20.8% 20 Port Hills 46.4% 56 Waitaki 20.2% 21 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 46.3% 57 Clutha Southland 19.8% 22 Te Tai Tokerau 44.7% 58 North Shore 19.3% 23 Hutt South 43.8% 59 Waikato 19.3% 24 Auckland Central 43.6% 60 Whangarei 19.2% 25 Te Tai Tonga 42.9% 61 Bay of Plenty 18.5% 26 Napier 42.7% 62 Hunua 17.9% 27 Waimakariri 41.5% 63 Taranaki-King Country 17.0% 28 Maungakiekie 41.3% 64 Tauranga 16.1% 29 Te Tai Hauauru 41.3% 65 Tamaki 14.3% 30 Whanganui 40.7% 66 Helensville 12.8% 31 Christchurch Central 38.9% 67 East Coast Bays 12.1% 32 Tamaki Makaurau 38.3% 68 Coromandel 11.3% 33 Hamilton West 35.4% 69 Rodney 11.1% 34 Ohariu 34.9% 70 Selwyn 10.9% 35 Otaki 34.8% 71 Epsom 9.4% 36 Tukituki 34.2%

Mangere had the highest electorate vote for Labour at 72.5% followed by Manukau East at 69.5%.

Labour received over 50% of the EV in 12 (-1) seats.

Their median seat was Tukituki at 34.2%.

Their lowest percentage for a seat which they won was Tamaki Makaurau at 38.3%, Te Tai Hauauru 31.4% and then Napier at 2.7%. Conversely their best result in a seat they did not win was Auckland Central at 43.6%.

Their worst seat was Epsom at 9.4% and then Selwyn at 10.9%. In 21 seats their candidate got under 25%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/PARTY VOTE

EV/PV EV PV 35 Kaikoura 134.2% 22.9% 17.1% 1 Waimakariri 219.1% 41.5% 19.0% 36 Nelson 133.9% 33.1% 24.7% Wellington 37 Ilam 133.0% 23.5% 17.7% 2 Central 218.2% 52.0% 23.8% Hauraki- Auckland 38 Waikato 132.4% 61.6% 46.5% 3 Central 201.4% 43.6% 21.7% 39 Northcote 131.4% 29.0% 22.1% West Coast 40 Waikato 130.7% 19.3% 14.8% 4 Tasman 201.0% 47.3% 23.5% 41 East Coast 129.2% 29.4% 22.7% 5 Mt Albert 199.3% 58.7% 0.295 Taranaki-King 6 Port Hills 194.6% 46.4% 23.9% 42 Country 127.0% 17.0% 13.4% 7 Wigram 170.7% 48.9% 28.7% 43 Te Tai Tokerau 126.1% 44.7% 35.5% 8 Napier 164.6% 42.7% 26.0% 44 Wairarapa 124.1% 25.6% 20.6% 9 Rongotai 163.3% 49.8% 30.5% 45 Papakura 121.1% 31.4% 25.9% Palmerston 46 Kelston 120.8% 50.9% 42.1% 10 North 161.7% 50.1% 31.0% 47 Rangitata 120.8% 26.9% 22.3% 11 Rimutaka 161.2% 53.0% 32.9% 48 Invercargill 119.1% 29.9% 25.1% 12 Rotorua 160.7% 34.0% 21.2% 49 Maungakiekie 117.1% 41.3% 35.3% 13 Whanganui 159.5% 40.7% 25.5% 50 Te Tai Tonga 116.3% 42.9% 36.9% 14 Mana 159.4% 54.8% 34.4% 51 Hamilton East 114.4% 27.2% 23.8% 15 Mt Roskill 158.6% 56.5% 35.6% 52 Upper Harbour 113.5% 26.6% 23.5% 16 Hutt South 156.5% 43.8% 28.0% 53 Waitaki 111.9% 20.2% 0.181 17 Northland 155.7% 25.9% 16.6% 54 Taupo 111.7% 20.8% 18.6% 18 New Plymouth 150.9% 31.9% 21.2% 55 Tauranga 111.7% 16.1% 14.4% 19 Rangitikei 150.2% 27.8% 18.5% 56 Manukau East 109.2% 69.5% 63.7% 20 Tukituki 149.5% 34.2% 22.8% 57 Whangarei 107.5% 19.2% 17.9% Christchurch 58 Mangere 107.3% 72.5% 0.676 21 East 149.5% 48.1% 32.2% 59 Botany 104.9% 23.4% 22.3% 22 Dunedin North 149.0% 47.4% 31.8% 60 Manurewa 102.3% 54.2% 53.0% 23 Ohariu 148.6% 34.9% 23.5% 61 Helensville 101.9% 12.8% 0.125 Christchurch East Coast 24 Central 148.3% 38.9% 26.3% 62 Bays 100.0% 12.1% 12.1% 25 Dunedin South 147.5% 49.1% 0.333 63 Te Tai Hauauru 97.9% 41.3% 42.2% 26 Bay of Plenty 141.8% 18.5% 13.1% 64 Tamaki 96.7% 14.3% 0.148 27 Pakuranga 141.0% 22.5% 16.0% 65 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 96.2% 46.3% 48.1% 28 New Lynn 141.0% 50.9% 36.1% Tamaki 29 Otaki 140.3% 34.8% 24.8% 66 Makaurau 93.7% 38.3% 40.8% 30 Te Atatu 139.1% 48.7% 35.0% 67 Rodney 90.0% 11.1% 12.3% 31 Hamilton West 137.9% 35.4% 25.7% 68 Selwyn 84.0% 10.9% 13.0% 32 Hunua 136.4% 17.9% 13.1% 69 Coromandel 72.2% 11.3% 15.7% 33 North Shore 136.0% 19.3% 14.2% 70 Waiariki 70.5% 27.3% 38.8% Clutha 71 Epsom 70.3% 9.4% 13.4% 34 Southland 134.8% 19.8% 0.147

This shows how Labour did in the electorate vote relative to the party vote in each seat. At 100% it means the electorate vote was exactly equal to the party vote.

Waimakariri is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the party vote at 219%. This was followed by Wellington Central and Auckland Central at 218% and 201% respectively.

The median seat was Nelson at 133%.

The lowest ratio was in Epsom at 70%, Waiariki at 71%, Coromandel 72%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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LABOUR 2014 ELECTORATE VOTE/LAB + GREEN PARTY VOTE

EV/PV EV PV Christchurch 1 Waimakariri 149.3% 41.5% 27.8% 36 Central 92.5% 38.9% 42.1% West Coast 37 Maungakiekie 92.4% 41.3% 44.8% 2 Tasman 129.5% 47.3% 36.5% 38 East Coast 92.0% 29.4% 31.9% 3 Rimutaka 128.0% 53.0% 41.4% 39 Invercargill 91.5% 29.9% 32.6% 4 Mt Roskill 124.8% 56.5% 45.3% 40 Bay of Plenty 91.3% 18.5% 20.3% 5 Whanganui 124.3% 40.7% 32.7% 41 Ohariu 90.6% 34.9% 38.6% 6 Napier 123.0% 42.7% 34.7% 42 Rangitata 90.4% 26.9% 29.8% Palmerston 43 Clutha Southland 88.4% 19.8% 22.4% 7 North 122.6% 50.1% 40.8% 44 Wairarapa 88.2% 25.6% 29.0% 8 Rotorua 121.8% 34.0% 27.9% 45 Botany 87.7% 23.4% 26.6% 9 Wigram 118.0% 48.9% 41.5% 46 Rongotai 87.5% 49.8% 56.9% 10 Mana 116.1% 54.8% 47.2% 47 Upper Harbour 87.4% 26.6% 30.5% 11 Mt Albert 114.6% 58.7% 51.2% 48 Kaikoura 87.3% 22.9% 26.3% 12 Port Hills 113.4% 46.4% 41.0% 49 Dunedin North 86.6% 47.4% 54.8% 13 Te Atatu 112.9% 48.7% 43.1% 50 Northcote 86.1% 29.0% 33.7% 14 New Lynn 110.3% 50.9% 46.1% 51 Nelson 85.1% 33.1% 38.8% 15 New Plymouth 109.5% 31.9% 29.2% 52 Taupo 84.0% 20.8% 24.8% 16 Hauraki-Waikato 109.4% 61.6% 56.3% Taranaki-King 17 Tukituki 108.7% 34.2% 31.4% 53 Country 82.5% 17.0% 20.6% 18 Dunedin South 107.7% 49.1% 45.6% 54 Te Tai Tonga 80.3% 42.9% 53.4% 19 Hutt South 107.5% 43.8% 40.7% 55 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 79.1% 46.3% 58.5% Christchurch 56 Hamilton East 78.2% 27.2% 34.8% 20 East 107.3% 48.1% 44.8% 57 North Shore 77.6% 19.3% 24.9% 21 Rangitikei 105.6% 27.8% 26.3% 58 Ilam 76.7% 23.5% 30.6% 22 Hamilton West 104.5% 35.4% 33.9% 59 Te Tai Hauauru 76.3% 41.3% 54.2% 23 Manukau East 103.2% 69.5% 67.4% 60 Tauranga 74.8% 16.1% 21.6% 24 Otaki 101.6% 34.8% 34.3% Tamaki 25 Mangere 101.4% 72.5% 71.5% 61 Makaurau 72.7% 38.3% 52.7% 26 Pakuranga 100.9% 22.5% 22.3% 62 Waitaki 69.4% 20.2% 29.1% 27 Papakura 100.8% 31.4% 31.1% 63 Whangarei 69.4% 19.2% 27.7% 28 Auckland Central 99.5% 43.6% 43.8% 64 Tamaki 60.6% 14.3% 23.6% 29 Te Tai Tokerau 98.2% 44.7% 45.5% 65 East Coast Bays 59.6% 12.1% 20.4% Wellington 66 Waiariki 58.4% 27.3% 46.8% 30 Central 97.4% 52.0% 53.4% 67 Rodney 53.2% 11.1% 20.8% 31 Kelston 96.3% 50.9% 52.9% 68 Helensville 48.9% 12.8% 26.1% 32 Manurewa 95.1% 54.2% 57.0% 69 Selwyn 45.6% 10.9% 23.9% 33 Hunua 94.6% 17.9% 18.9% 70 Coromandel 44.4% 11.3% 25.5% 34 Northland 94.2% 25.9% 27.5% 71 Epsom 36.4% 9.4% 25.9% 35 Waikato 94.0% 19.3% 20.6%

In this table we compare the Labour electorate vote to the combined party vote for Labour and Greens. This removes the impact of Green voters who tactically voted for the Labour candidate to get a better idea of which Labour candidates attracted support beyond the main left party vote.

Waimakariri is the seat where the candidate was most popular relative to the L/G party vote at 149%. This was followed by West Coast Tasman and Rimutaka at 130% and 128% respectively.

In only 27 seats did the Labour candidate get more votes than the combined party vote for Labour and Greens.

The median seat was Christchurch Central at 93%.

The lowest ratio was in Epsom at 36% and Coromandel at 44%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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LABOUR PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 36 Selwyn -2.3% 13.0% 15.3% 1 Waiariki 3.7% 38.8% 35.0% 37 Te Atatu -2.5% 35.0% 37.5% 2 Hauraki-Waikato 2.2% 46.5% 44.3% 38 Whangarei -2.5% 17.9% 20.3% 3 Kelston 0.9% 42.1% 41.2% 39 Nelson -2.6% 24.7% 27.3% 4 Te Tai Tokerau 0.8% 35.5% 34.7% 40 Hunua -2.6% 13.1% 15.7% 5 Te Tai Hauauru 0.2% 42.2% 42.0% 41 Pakuranga -2.7% 16.0% 18.6% 6 Tauranga 0.0% 14.4% 14.4% 42 Wairarapa -2.7% 20.6% 23.3% 7 Rotorua 0.0% 21.2% 21.2% 43 Helensville -2.7% 12.5% 15.2% Tamaki 44 Wigram -2.7% 28.7% 31.4% 8 Makaurau -0.7% 40.8% 41.5% 45 Kaikoura -2.8% 17.1% 19.9% Christchurch 46 Northcote -2.9% 22.1% 25.0% 9 East -0.7% 32.2% 32.8% Palmerston 10 Bay of Plenty -0.8% 13.1% 13.9% 47 North -2.9% 31.0% 33.9% 11 Port Hills -0.8% 23.9% 24.7% Wellington 12 Northland -1.0% 16.6% 17.6% 48 Central -3.0% 23.8% 26.8% 13 Dunedin North -1.1% 31.8% 32.9% 49 Mt Albert -3.1% 29.5% 32.6% 14 East Coast -1.2% 22.7% 23.9% 50 Napier -3.1% 26.0% 29.1% 15 Auckland Central -1.2% 21.7% 22.9% 51 East Coast Bays -3.1% 12.1% 15.3% 16 Tukituki -1.3% 22.8% 24.1% 52 Rangitikei -3.2% 18.5% 21.7% 17 Upper Harbour -1.3% 23.5% 24.8% 53 Manukau East -3.2% 63.7% 66.9% 18 Hamilton East -1.3% 23.8% 25.1% 54 Ohariu -3.2% 23.5% 26.7% 19 Dunedin South -1.4% 33.3% 34.7% 55 Rimutaka -3.3% 32.9% 36.2% 20 Rodney -1.5% 12.3% 13.8% 56 Mana -3.4% 34.4% 37.8% 21 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -1.5% 48.1% 49.6% 57 Hutt South -3.4% 28.0% 31.4% 22 Clutha Southland -1.5% 14.7% 16.2% 58 Waitaki -3.5% 18.1% 21.6% 23 Ilam -1.5% 17.7% 19.2% 59 Maungakiekie -3.5% 35.3% 38.8% 24 Botany -1.5% 22.3% 23.8% 60 Invercargill -3.7% 25.1% 28.7% Christchurch 61 Rongotai -3.7% 30.5% 34.2% 25 Central -1.6% 26.3% 27.8% 62 Waimakariri -3.7% 19.0% 22.6% 26 Te Tai Tonga -1.6% 36.9% 38.5% West Coast 27 Taupo -1.6% 18.6% 20.3% 63 Tasman -3.7% 23.5% 27.2% Taranaki-King 64 Hamilton West -4.0% 25.7% 29.6% 28 Country -1.7% 13.4% 15.0% 65 Mangere -4.3% 67.6% 71.8% 29 Whanganui -1.8% 25.5% 27.3% 66 New Plymouth -4.3% 21.2% 25.4% 30 Waikato -1.8% 14.8% 16.6% 67 Manurewa -4.4% 53.0% 57.4% 31 Tamaki -1.9% 14.8% 16.7% 68 Otaki -4.6% 24.8% 29.5% 32 North Shore -2.0% 14.2% 16.2% 69 Mt Roskill -5.1% 35.6% 40.7% 33 Epsom -2.1% 13.4% 15.5% 70 Rangitata -5.1% 22.3% 27.4% 34 Papakura -2.2% 25.9% 28.1% 71 New Lynn -7.1% 36.1% 43.2% 35 Coromandel -2.2% 15.7% 17.9%

Labour lost party vote in 65 of 71 seats. They increased it in Waiariki, Hauraki-Waikato, Kelston, Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Hauauru.

Overall 25 seats had a party vote decrease of less than 2%, 24 seats had a decrease of or over 3%

The median change was in Selwyn on -2.3%

Labour’s largest drops were New Lynn, Rangitata and Mt Roskill.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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LABOUR ELECTORATE VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 37 Rimutaka -1.1% 53.0% 54.1% 1 Te Tai Hauauru 11.5% 41.3% 29.8% 38 Rangitikei -1.2% 27.8% 29.0% 2 Te Tai Tokerau 7.6% 44.7% 37.1% Palmerston 3 Mana 6.2% 54.8% 48.6% 39 North -1.2% 50.1% 51.3% 4 Port Hills 5.2% 46.4% 41.3% 40 North Shore -1.2% 19.3% 20.6% 5 Auckland Central 5.0% 43.6% 38.7% Taranaki-King 6 Tukituki 4.9% 34.2% 29.3% 41 Country -1.2% 17.0% 18.2% 7 Dunedin North 4.4% 47.4% 43.0% 42 Epsom -1.3% 9.4% 10.7% 8 Northland 4.3% 25.9% 21.6% 43 Botany -1.3% 23.4% 24.7% 9 Rotorua 3.6% 34.0% 30.4% 44 Hutt South -1.5% 43.8% 45.3% 10 Wigram 3.5% 48.9% 45.4% 45 Upper Harbour -1.8% 26.6% 28.4% 11 Mt Roskill 3.5% 56.5% 53.0% 46 East Coast -2.5% 29.4% 31.9% 12 Papakura 3.5% 31.4% 27.9% 47 Kelston -2.6% 50.9% 53.5% 13 Whanganui 3.4% 40.7% 37.3% 48 Otaki -2.7% 34.8% 37.6% 14 Hauraki-Waikato 3.2% 61.6% 58.4% 49 Kaikoura -2.8% 22.9% 25.7% Tamaki 50 Rodney -3.0% 11.1% 14.1% 15 Makaurau 3.2% 38.3% 35.1% 51 Selwyn -3.2% 10.9% 14.1% 16 Ilam 3.2% 23.5% 20.3% 52 Whangarei -3.3% 19.2% 22.4% 17 Clutha Southland 3.1% 19.8% 16.8% 53 Waimakariri -3.4% 41.5% 44.9% 18 Tauranga 2.9% 16.1% 13.3% 54 Mangere -3.4% 72.5% 75.9% 19 Waiariki 2.8% 27.3% 24.5% 55 Waitaki -3.8% 20.2% 24.1% 20 Mt Albert 2.7% 58.7% 56.0% 56 Tamaki -4.0% 14.3% 18.3% Wellington 57 Hamilton West -4.1% 35.4% 39.5% 21 Central 2.6% 52.0% 49.5% 58 Hamilton East -4.9% 27.2% 32.1% 22 Te Tai Tonga 2.3% 42.9% 40.6% 59 Invercargill -4.9% 29.9% 34.8% 23 Napier 1.9% 42.7% 40.8% 60 East Coast Bays -5.3% 12.1% 17.5% 24 Bay of Plenty 1.6% 18.5% 16.9% Christchurch 25 Hunua 1.5% 17.9% 16.4% 61 Central -5.4% 38.9% 44.3% 26 Waikato 0.9% 19.3% 18.5% 62 Coromandel -5.9% 11.3% 17.3% 27 Pakuranga 0.7% 22.5% 21.8% 63 Wairarapa -6.1% 25.6% 31.6% 28 Nelson 0.5% 33.1% 32.6% 64 New Lynn -6.1% 50.9% 57.0% 29 Dunedin South 0.2% 49.1% 48.9% Christchurch 30 Taupo 0.1% 20.8% 20.7% 65 East -7.1% 48.1% 55.2% West Coast 66 Helensville -7.4% 12.8% 20.2% 31 Tasman -0.2% 47.3% 47.5% 67 New Plymouth -7.6% 31.9% 39.5% 32 Northcote -0.4% 29.0% 29.5% 68 Manukau East -7.8% 69.5% 77.4% 33 Te Atatu -0.5% 48.7% 49.2% 69 Manurewa -9.0% 54.2% 63.3% 34 Rongotai -0.7% 49.8% 50.5% 70 Rangitata -11.0% 26.9% 37.9% 35 Ohariu -0.7% 34.9% 35.7% 71 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -14.4% 46.3% 60.7% 36 Maungakiekie -0.9% 41.3% 42.3%

Labour’s increased the electorate vote in 30 seats. The biggest were Te Tai Hauauru, Te Tai Tokerau, Mana and Port Hills..

The median change was Maungakiekie on -0.9%.

Labour lost EV in 41 seats. The biggest drops were 14.4% in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, 11.05 in Rangitata, 9.0% in Manurewa and 7.8% in Manukau East.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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GREENS 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Wellington Central 29.6% 37 Otaki 9.5% 2 Rongotai 26.4% 38 Maungakiekie 9.5% 3 Dunedin North 22.9% 39 East Coast 9.2% 4 Auckland Central 22.2% 40 Kaikoura 9.2% 5 Mt Albert 21.8% 41 Waimakariri 8.9% 6 Port Hills 17.1% 42 Tamaki 8.8% 7 Te Tai Tonga 16.5% 43 Napier 8.8% 8 Christchurch Central 15.8% 44 Tukituki 8.6% 9 Ohariu 15.1% 45 Rodney 8.5% 10 Nelson 14.1% 46 Rimutaka 8.5% 11 Helensville 13.6% 47 Wairarapa 8.4% 12 West Coast Tasman 13.0% 48 East Coast Bays 8.2% 13 Ilam 13.0% 49 Hamilton West 8.2% 14 Wigram 12.8% 50 Te Atatu 8.1% 15 Mana 12.8% 51 Waiariki 8.1% 16 Hutt South 12.7% 52 New Plymouth 8.0% 17 Christchurch East 12.7% 53 Rangitikei 7.8% 18 Epsom 12.5% 54 Clutha Southland 7.7% 19 Dunedin South 12.3% 55 Invercargill 7.6% 20 Te Tai Hauauru 11.9% 56 Rangitata 7.5% 21 Tamaki Makaurau 11.8% 57 Bay of Plenty 7.2% 22 Northcote 11.6% 58 Whanganui 7.2% 23 Waitaki 11.1% 59 Taranaki-King Country 7.2% 24 Hamilton East 11.0% 60 Tauranga 7.1% 25 Selwyn 10.9% 61 Upper Harbour 7.0% 26 Northland 10.8% 62 Rotorua 6.7% 27 Kelston 10.7% 63 Pakuranga 6.3% 28 North Shore 10.7% 64 Taupo 6.1% 29 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 10.4% 65 Hunua 5.8% 30 Te Tai Tokerau 10.1% 66 Waikato 5.8% 31 New Lynn 10.0% 67 Papakura 5.2% 32 Palmerston North 9.9% 68 Botany 4.4% 33 Coromandel 9.8% 69 Manurewa 4.0% 34 Whangarei 9.8% 70 Mangere 4.0% 35 Hauraki-Waikato 9.8% 71 Manukau East 3.7% 36 Mt Roskill 9.7%

The Greens again did exceptionally well in Wellington achieving 29.6% in Wellington Central (beating Labour in the party vote) and 26.4% in Rongotai. Also above 20% was Dunedin North, Auckland Central and Mt Albert.

In nine seats they got over 15%, and in 31 seats, over 10%.

Their median seat was Mt Roskill on 9.7%. This is less than their average of 10.6% so their stronger seats drags them up.

Their worst seats were Manukau East and Mangere. They were below 5% in four seats.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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GREEN PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 36 Otaki -0.2% 9.5% 9.7% 1 Rongotai 2.2% 26.4% 24.2% 37 Te Atatu -0.3% 8.1% 8.4% Tamaki 38 Ilam -0.5% 13.0% 13.4% 2 Makaurau 2.1% 11.8% 9.7% 39 Rangitata -0.6% 7.5% 8.1% 3 Mt Roskill 1.9% 9.7% 7.8% Palmerston Wellington 40 North -0.6% 9.9% 10.5% 4 Central 1.7% 29.6% 27.9% 41 Hamilton West -0.7% 8.2% 8.9% 5 Te Tai Tokerau 1.4% 10.1% 8.6% 42 Selwyn -0.8% 10.9% 11.7% 6 Mt Albert 1.3% 21.8% 20.5% 43 Waiariki -0.8% 8.1% 8.8% 7 New Lynn 1.3% 10.0% 8.8% 44 East Coast -0.8% 9.2% 10.0% 8 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 1.1% 10.4% 9.4% 45 Waitaki -0.8% 11.1% 11.9% 9 Te Tai Hauauru 0.8% 11.9% 11.2% 46 Whangarei -0.8% 9.8% 10.6% Hauraki- 47 Invercargill -0.8% 7.6% 8.4% 10 Waikato 0.7% 9.8% 9.0% Clutha 11 Te Tai Tonga 0.7% 16.5% 15.8% 48 Southland -0.9% 7.7% 8.6% 12 Northcote 0.7% 11.6% 10.9% Christchurch 13 Helensville 0.6% 13.6% 13.0% 49 Central -0.9% 15.8% 16.7% Auckland 50 Northland -0.9% 10.8% 11.8% 14 Central 0.5% 22.2% 21.7% 51 Hunua -1.0% 5.8% 6.8% 15 Epsom 0.4% 12.5% 12.1% 52 Rimutaka -1.0% 8.5% 9.5% 16 Port Hills 0.4% 17.1% 16.7% 53 Napier -1.0% 8.8% 9.8% 17 Maungakiekie 0.4% 9.5% 9.1% Taranaki-King 18 Waimakariri 0.3% 8.9% 8.5% 54 Country -1.1% 7.2% 8.3% 19 Manukau East 0.3% 3.7% 3.3% 55 Tukituki -1.1% 8.6% 9.7% Christchurch 56 Hamilton East -1.1% 11.0% 12.2% 20 East 0.3% 12.7% 12.4% West Coast 21 Ohariu 0.2% 15.1% 14.8% 57 Tasman -1.2% 13.0% 14.2% 22 Upper Harbour 0.2% 7.0% 6.8% 58 Dunedin South -1.2% 12.3% 13.5% 23 Wigram 0.2% 12.8% 12.6% 59 Kelston -1.2% 10.7% 11.9% 24 Dunedin North 0.2% 22.9% 22.8% 60 Waikato -1.3% 5.8% 7.1% 25 Pakuranga 0.1% 6.3% 6.2% 61 Taupo -1.4% 6.1% 7.6% 26 Mangere 0.1% 4.0% 3.8% 62 Coromandel -1.4% 9.8% 11.3% 27 Tamaki 0.1% 8.8% 8.7% 63 Wairarapa -1.5% 8.4% 9.8% 28 Rodney 0.0% 8.5% 8.5% 64 Tauranga -1.5% 7.1% 8.6% 29 Manurewa 0.0% 4.0% 3.9% 65 Whanganui -1.5% 7.2% 8.7% 30 Mana 0.0% 12.8% 12.8% 66 Rangitikei -1.5% 7.8% 9.4% East Coast 67 New Plymouth -1.6% 8.0% 9.6% 31 Bays -0.1% 8.2% 8.3% 68 Rotorua -1.9% 6.7% 8.6% 32 Botany -0.1% 4.4% 4.4% 69 Nelson -1.9% 14.1% 16.0% 33 Hutt South -0.1% 12.7% 12.9% 70 Kaikoura -1.9% 9.2% 11.1% 34 North Shore -0.2% 10.7% 10.9% 71 Bay of Plenty -2.0% 7.2% 9.3% 35 Papakura -0.2% 5.2% 5.4%

The Greens gained support in 30 seats and lost support in 41 seats.

Their biggest increases were Rongotai and Tamaki Makaurau.

The median change was Te Atatu on -0.3%.

The biggest decrease were Bay of Plenty, Kaikoura, Nelson and Rotorua.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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NZ FIRST 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Te Tai Tokerau 14.6% 37 Kelston 8.5% 2 Tauranga 14.5% 38 Te Atatu 8.4% 3 Tamaki Makaurau 14.1% 39 Rangitata 7.9% 4 Bay of Plenty 13.9% 40 Manukau East 7.8% 5 Whangarei 13.4% 41 Nelson 7.7% 6 Hauraki-Waikato 13.4% 42 Tukituki 7.6% 7 Te Tai Tonga 12.9% 43 Hutt South 7.5% 8 Northland 12.8% 44 Napier 7.4% 9 Waiariki 12.7% 45 Helensville 7.4% 10 Coromandel 12.5% 46 Mangere 7.3% 11 Rotorua 12.2% 47 Northcote 7.3% 12 Whanganui 12.0% 48 Christchurch Central 7.2% 13 East Coast 11.8% 49 New Lynn 7.2% 14 Te Tai Hauauru 11.8% 50 Hamilton East 7.1% 15 Wairarapa 11.7% 51 Pakuranga 7.1% 16 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 11.4% 52 Waitaki 7.0% 17 Rangitikei 11.3% 53 Selwyn 7.0% 18 Invercargill 11.2% 54 Upper Harbour 6.9% 19 Hamilton West 10.8% 55 Mana 6.8% 20 Papakura 10.8% 56 Dunedin North 6.7% 21 Waikato 10.8% 57 Port Hills 6.6% 22 Taupo 10.3% 58 Maungakiekie 6.6% 23 Rimutaka 10.3% 59 Clutha Southland 6.2% 24 Otaki 10.0% 60 East Coast Bays 6.0% 25 Kaikoura 9.9% 61 North Shore 5.8% 26 Hunua 9.6% 62 Rongotai 5.4% 27 Manurewa 9.5% 63 Botany 5.4% 28 Taranaki-King Country 9.5% 64 Mt Roskill 5.3% 29 Christchurch East 9.4% 65 Auckland Central 5.2% 30 Dunedin South 9.1% 66 Ilam 5.1% 31 Rodney 9.1% 67 Ohariu 4.8% 32 New Plymouth 9.0% 68 Tamaki 4.4% 33 West Coast Tasman 8.7% 69 Mt Albert 4.1% 34 Palmerston North 8.7% 70 Wellington Central 3.6% 35 Wigram 8.6% 71 Epsom 3.5% 36 Waimakariri 8.5%

24 (+17) seats got into double digits for NZ First. In total 66 out of 71 seats had NZ First over the 5% threshold.

Their median seat was Waimakariri at 8.5%.

Their lowest support was in central city seats such as Epsom and Wellington Central – at 3.5% and 3.6%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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NZ FIRST PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 36 Hutt South 1.9% 7.5% 5.6% 1 Te Tai Tokerau 4.7% 14.6% 9.9% 37 Taupo 1.9% 10.3% 8.4% 2 Invercargill 4.3% 11.2% 6.8% 38 Rodney 1.9% 9.1% 7.2% 3 Te Tai Tonga 4.1% 12.9% 8.8% 39 Napier 1.9% 7.4% 5.5% 4 Rangitikei 4.0% 11.3% 7.3% 40 Otaki 1.9% 10.0% 8.1% 5 Wairarapa 3.9% 11.7% 7.8% 41 Te Atatu 1.9% 8.4% 6.5% 6 Te Tai Hauauru 3.8% 11.8% 7.9% 42 Rotorua 1.8% 12.2% 10.4% 7 Rimutaka 3.8% 10.3% 6.5% 43 Waitaki 1.8% 7.0% 5.2% 8 Whangarei 3.7% 13.4% 9.7% 44 Tukituki 1.8% 7.6% 5.9% Tamaki 45 Upper Harbour 1.8% 6.9% 5.2% 9 Makaurau 3.7% 14.1% 10.4% 46 Waiariki 1.7% 12.7% 10.9% 10 Kaikoura 3.3% 9.9% 6.6% 47 Northcote 1.7% 7.3% 5.6% 11 Hamilton West 3.3% 10.8% 7.6% 48 Hamilton East 1.7% 7.1% 5.5% Christchurch 49 Manukau East 1.6% 7.8% 6.2% 12 East 3.2% 9.4% 6.3% 50 Mangere 1.5% 7.3% 5.9% 13 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 3.1% 11.4% 8.3% 51 Coromandel 1.5% 12.5% 11.0% Palmerston 52 Pakuranga 1.4% 7.1% 5.7% 14 North 3.0% 8.7% 5.7% Clutha West Coast 53 Southland 1.3% 6.2% 4.9% 15 Tasman 3.0% 8.7% 5.7% 54 Maungakiekie 1.3% 6.6% 5.3% 16 New Plymouth 2.6% 9.0% 6.4% East Coast 17 Northland 2.6% 12.8% 10.2% 55 Bays 1.3% 6.0% 4.7% 18 East Coast 2.6% 11.8% 9.3% 56 Bay of Plenty 1.2% 13.9% 12.7% Christchurch 57 Ilam 1.2% 5.1% 4.0% 19 Central 2.5% 7.2% 4.7% 58 Botany 1.0% 5.4% 4.4% 20 Waikato 2.5% 10.8% 8.3% 59 Dunedin North 1.0% 6.7% 5.7% 21 Waimakariri 2.5% 8.5% 6.0% 60 Rongotai 1.0% 5.4% 4.4% 22 Whanganui 2.5% 12.0% 9.5% 61 North Shore 1.0% 5.8% 4.9% Taranaki-King 62 Ohariu 1.0% 4.8% 3.8% 23 Country 2.4% 9.5% 7.0% 24 Hunua 2.4% 9.6% 7.2% 63 Epsom 0.9% 3.5% 2.6% 25 Wigram 2.3% 8.6% 6.2% 64 Mt Roskill 0.8% 5.3% 4.5% Wellington 26 Papakura 2.3% 10.8% 8.6% 65 Central 0.7% 3.6% 2.9% 27 Nelson 2.2% 7.7% 5.4% 66 Tamaki 0.7% 4.4% 3.7% 28 Kelston 2.2% 8.5% 6.2% 67 New Lynn 0.6% 7.2% 6.5% 29 Helensville 2.2% 7.4% 5.2% Auckland 30 Manurewa 2.1% 9.5% 7.4% 68 Central 0.4% 5.2% 4.7% 31 Rangitata 2.1% 7.9% 5.8% 69 Mt Albert 0.3% 4.1% 3.8% 32 Dunedin South 2.0% 9.1% 7.1% Hauraki- 33 Mana 2.0% 6.8% 4.8% 70 Waikato 0.1% 13.4% 13.3% 34 Selwyn 1.9% 7.0% 5.0% 71 Tauranga -0.2% 14.5% 14.7% 35 Port Hills 1.9% 6.6% 4.7%

NZ First gained party vote in 70 of 71 seats.

Their biggest increase was Te Tai Tokerau and Invercargill.

The median increase was Hutt South at 1.9%

Their only decrease was Tauranga at -0.2%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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CONSERVATIVE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Rodney 6.8% 37 Rotorua 4.0% 2 East Coast Bays 6.7% 38 Te Atatu 3.8% 3 Tukituki 6.6% 39 New Lynn 3.7% 4 Northland 6.3% 40 Ilam 3.7% 5 Napier 6.2% 41 Invercargill 3.7% 6 Rangitikei 6.1% 42 Mt Roskill 3.7% 7 Tauranga 5.8% 43 Wigram 3.6% 8 Waikato 5.7% 44 Hutt South 3.6% 9 Taranaki-King Country 5.7% 45 Selwyn 3.5% 10 Bay of Plenty 5.7% 46 Christchurch East 3.3% 11 Pakuranga 5.6% 47 New Plymouth 3.2% 12 Nelson 5.5% 48 Maungakiekie 3.2% 13 Coromandel 5.3% 49 Port Hills 3.1% 14 Whangarei 5.2% 50 Christchurch Central 3.1% 15 West Coast Tasman 5.1% 51 Mangere 3.1% 16 Clutha Southland 5.0% 52 Tamaki 3.1% 17 Hunua 5.0% 53 Ohariu 3.0% 18 Whanganui 5.0% 54 Kelston 3.0% 19 Upper Harbour 4.8% 55 Dunedin South 2.9% 20 Hamilton East 4.8% 56 Manurewa 2.8% 21 Helensville 4.8% 57 Dunedin North 2.7% 22 Taupo 4.8% 58 Mana 2.7% 23 Hamilton West 4.7% 59 Epsom 2.5% 24 Kaikoura 4.7% 60 Manukau East 2.1% 25 Botany 4.5% 61 Mt Albert 2.0% 26 Palmerston North 4.5% 62 Auckland Central 1.7% 27 Otaki 4.4% 63 Rongotai 1.6% 28 Waitaki 4.4% 64 Wellington Central 1.5% 29 Rangitata 4.4% 65 Hauraki-Waikato 0.8% 30 North Shore 4.3% 66 Te Tai Tonga 0.7% 31 Wairarapa 4.3% 67 Te Tai Tokerau 0.7% 32 Waimakariri 4.3% 68 Tamaki Makaurau 0.6% 33 Northcote 4.3% 69 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.6% 34 Papakura 4.1% 70 Te Tai Hauauru 0.6% 35 East Coast 4.1% 71 Waiariki 0.4% 36 Rimutaka 4.0%

Conservative’s highest party vote was in Rodney at 6.8%. East Coast Bays at 6.7% and Tukituki at 6.6%.

They got over 5% party vote in 18 seats.

Their median seat was Rimutaka on 4.0%.

The Maori seats were their worse seats followed by Wellington Central, Rongotai and Auckland Central.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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CONSERVATIVE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 37 New Plymouth 1.3% 3.2% 1.9% East Coast 38 Hunua 1.3% 5.0% 3.8% 1 Bays 3.1% 6.7% 3.6% 39 Dunedin North 1.3% 2.7% 1.5% 2 Napier 2.9% 6.2% 3.4% 40 Wigram 1.2% 3.6% 2.4% 3 Nelson 2.8% 5.5% 2.7% 41 Otaki 1.2% 4.4% 3.2% 4 Tukituki 2.8% 6.6% 3.8% Christchurch 5 North Shore 2.1% 4.3% 2.2% 42 East 1.2% 3.3% 2.0% 6 Pakuranga 2.0% 5.6% 3.5% 43 Papakura 1.2% 4.1% 3.0% 7 Rangitata 2.0% 4.4% 2.4% Christchurch West Coast 44 Central 1.1% 3.1% 2.0% 8 Tasman 1.9% 5.1% 3.2% 45 Taupo 1.1% 4.8% 3.7% Clutha 46 Te Atatu 1.1% 3.8% 2.7% 9 Southland 1.9% 5.0% 3.1% 47 Northland 1.1% 6.3% 5.2% 10 Rangitikei 1.9% 6.1% 4.2% 48 Selwyn 1.0% 3.5% 2.5% Taranaki-King 49 Waimakariri 1.0% 4.3% 3.3% 11 Country 1.8% 5.7% 3.8% 50 Whangarei 1.0% 5.2% 4.2% 12 Botany 1.8% 4.5% 2.7% 51 Rotorua 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 13 Northcote 1.8% 4.3% 2.5% 52 East Coast 0.9% 4.1% 3.1% 14 Waikato 1.7% 5.7% 4.0% 53 Mana 0.9% 2.7% 1.8% 15 Invercargill 1.7% 3.7% 2.0% 54 New Lynn 0.9% 3.7% 2.8% 16 Bay of Plenty 1.7% 5.7% 4.0% 55 Kelston 0.9% 3.0% 2.1% 17 Whanganui 1.7% 5.0% 3.4% 56 Kaikoura 0.9% 4.7% 3.8% 18 Ilam 1.6% 3.7% 2.1% Wellington 19 Tauranga 1.6% 5.8% 4.2% 57 Central 0.8% 1.5% 0.7% 20 Waitaki 1.6% 4.4% 2.8% Auckland 21 Hamilton West 1.5% 4.7% 3.1% 58 Central 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 22 Tamaki 1.5% 3.1% 1.5% 59 Mt Albert 0.6% 2.0% 1.3% 23 Upper Harbour 1.5% 4.8% 3.3% 60 Manukau East 0.6% 2.1% 1.5% 24 Hutt South 1.5% 3.6% 2.1% 61 Wairarapa 0.6% 4.3% 3.8% 25 Maungakiekie 1.5% 3.2% 1.7% 62 Manurewa 0.6% 2.8% 2.3% Palmerston 63 Rongotai 0.5% 1.6% 1.1% 26 North 1.5% 4.5% 3.0% 64 Rodney 0.3% 6.8% 6.5% 27 Dunedin South 1.5% 2.9% 1.5% 65 Te Tai Hauauru 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 28 Mangere 1.5% 3.1% 1.6% 66 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 29 Ohariu 1.4% 3.0% 1.6% 67 Te Tai Tokerau 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 30 Mt Roskill 1.4% 3.7% 2.3% Tamaki 31 Coromandel 1.4% 5.3% 3.9% 68 Makaurau 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 32 Helensville 1.4% 4.8% 3.4% 69 Te Tai Tonga 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 33 Epsom 1.4% 2.5% 1.1% 70 Waiariki 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 34 Rimutaka 1.3% 4.0% 2.7% Hauraki- 35 Hamilton East 1.3% 4.8% 3.5% 71 Waikato 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 36 Port Hills 1.3% 3.1% 1.8%

Conservatives gained party vote in all 71 seats.

Their biggest increase was East Coast Bays and Napier.

The median increase was Port Hills at 1.3%

The smallest increase was the Maori seats.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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MAORI PARTY 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Waiariki 22.0% 37 Palmerston North 0.5% 2 Te Tai Hauauru 17.6% 38 Tamaki 0.5% 3 Tamaki Makaurau 12.8% 39 Wigram 0.5% 4 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 12.4% 40 Epsom 0.5% 5 Hauraki-Waikato 12.0% 41 Northcote 0.5% 6 Te Tai Tonga 11.3% 42 Christchurch Central 0.5% 7 Te Tai Tokerau 10.2% 43 Mangere 0.5% 8 Rotorua 1.4% 44 North Shore 0.5% 9 East Coast 0.9% 45 Otaki 0.4% 10 Taupo 0.8% 46 Napier 0.4% 11 Wellington Central 0.8% 47 Te Atatu 0.4% 12 Manurewa 0.7% 48 Rimutaka 0.4% 13 Hamilton East 0.6% 49 Hunua 0.4% 14 Mana 0.6% 50 Port Hills 0.4% 15 Rongotai 0.6% 51 Christchurch East 0.4% 16 Tauranga 0.6% 52 Mt Roskill 0.4% 17 Northland 0.6% 53 East Coast Bays 0.4% 18 Whanganui 0.6% 54 Rodney 0.4% 19 Ohariu 0.6% 55 Upper Harbour 0.4% 20 Bay of Plenty 0.6% 56 Kaikoura 0.4% 21 Hamilton West 0.6% 57 New Lynn 0.4% 22 Rangitikei 0.6% 58 Dunedin North 0.4% 23 Auckland Central 0.6% 59 Clutha Southland 0.3% 24 Wairarapa 0.6% 60 Nelson 0.3% 25 Taranaki-King Country 0.6% 61 Invercargill 0.3% 26 Waikato 0.5% 62 Manukau East 0.3% 27 Helensville 0.5% 63 Pakuranga 0.3% 28 Maungakiekie 0.5% 64 Selwyn 0.3% 29 Whangarei 0.5% 65 Kelston 0.3% 30 Hutt South 0.5% 66 West Coast Tasman 0.3% 31 New Plymouth 0.5% 67 Waimakariri 0.3% 32 Tukituki 0.5% 68 Waitaki 0.3% 33 Papakura 0.5% 69 Rangitata 0.3% 34 Coromandel 0.5% 70 Dunedin South 0.3% 35 Mt Albert 0.5% 71 Botany 0.2% 36 Ilam 0.5%

As expected the Maori Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation though ranging from 22.0% in Waiariki to 10.2% in Te Tai Tokerau.

Their next best seat was Rotorua on 1.4%.

Their median seat was Ilam on 0.5%.

Their worst seat was Botany on 0.2%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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MAORI PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 36 Maungakiekie -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1 Waiariki 0.8% 22.0% 21.2% 37 Botany -0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 2 Rotorua 0.2% 1.4% 1.3% 38 Kaikoura -0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 3 Taupo 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 39 Whangarei -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% Christchurch 40 Mangere -0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 4 East 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 41 New Plymouth -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% Wellington 42 Rangitata -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 5 Central 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 43 Northcote -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 6 Wigram 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 44 Clutha Southland -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 7 Tauranga 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 45 Otaki -0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 8 Coromandel 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 46 Whanganui -0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 9 Manurewa 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 47 Waitaki -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 10 Hamilton East 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 48 Nelson -0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 11 Bay of Plenty 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 49 Hunua -0.1% 0.4% 0.5% Christchurch West Coast 12 Central 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 50 Tasman -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 13 Rodney 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% Taranaki-King 14 East Coast Bays 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 51 Country -0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 15 Helensville 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 52 North Shore -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 16 Hamilton West 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 53 Epsom -0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 17 Waimakariri 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 54 Rimutaka -0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 18 Ohariu 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 55 Kelston -0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 19 Ilam 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 56 Manukau East -0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 20 New Lynn 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 57 Invercargill -0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 21 Pakuranga 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 58 Upper Harbour -0.2% 0.4% 0.5% Palmerston 59 Napier -0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 22 North 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 60 Te Atatu -0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 23 Mana 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% 61 Northland -0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 24 Mt Roskill 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 62 Rangitikei -0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 25 Dunedin North 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 63 Tukituki -0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 26 Dunedin South 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 64 Mt Albert -0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 27 Tamaki -0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 65 Hauraki-Waikato -0.5% 12.0% 12.4% 28 Port Hills -0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 66 Te Tai Tokerau -1.0% 10.2% 11.2% 29 Hutt South -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 67 Auckland Central -1.0% 0.6% 1.6% 30 Selwyn -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% Tamaki 31 Wairarapa -0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 68 Makaurau -1.6% 12.8% 14.4% 32 Papakura -0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 69 Te Tai Tonga -2.2% 11.3% 13.5% 33 Rongotai -0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 70 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -2.6% 12.4% 15.0% 34 East Coast -0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 71 Te Tai Hauauru -3.4% 17.6% 21.1% 35 Waikato -0.1% 0.5% 0.6%

The Maori Party increased their vote in 26 seats and declined in 45 seats.

Their largest increase was Waiariki on 0.8%.

Their median decrease was Maungakiekie on -0.1%.

Their biggest decrease was Te Tai Hauauru on -3.4%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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MANA PARTY 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Te Tai Tokerau 18.7% 37 Papakura 0.8% 2 Waiariki 11.4% 38 Wigram 0.8% 3 Tamaki Makaurau 10.8% 39 West Coast Tasman 0.8% 4 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 9.9% 40 Port Hills 0.7% 5 Hauraki-Waikato 8.1% 41 Whanganui 0.7% 6 Te Tai Hauauru 6.8% 42 Hutt South 0.7% 7 Te Tai Tonga 5.0% 43 Hamilton West 0.7% 8 Auckland Central 2.0% 44 Tamaki 0.7% 9 Dunedin North 1.7% 45 New Plymouth 0.7% 10 Northland 1.7% 46 Ohariu 0.7% 11 Mt Albert 1.6% 47 Coromandel 0.7% 12 Wellington Central 1.5% 48 Tukituki 0.7% 13 Rongotai 1.5% 49 East Coast Bays 0.7% 14 Kelston 1.4% 50 Ilam 0.7% 15 Mangere 1.2% 51 North Shore 0.6% 16 East Coast 1.2% 52 Otaki 0.6% 17 Te Atatu 1.1% 53 Pakuranga 0.6% 18 Manurewa 1.1% 54 Invercargill 0.6% 19 New Lynn 1.1% 55 Botany 0.6% 20 Maungakiekie 1.1% 56 Napier 0.6% 21 Whangarei 1.0% 57 Rangitikei 0.6% 22 Manukau East 1.0% 58 Rodney 0.6% 23 Christchurch Central 1.0% 59 Taranaki-King Country 0.6% 24 Hamilton East 1.0% 60 Taupo 0.5% 25 Palmerston North 1.0% 61 Selwyn 0.5% 26 Mana 1.0% 62 Bay of Plenty 0.5% 27 Helensville 1.0% 63 Waikato 0.5% 28 Northcote 1.0% 64 Tauranga 0.5% 29 Mt Roskill 0.9% 65 Hunua 0.5% 30 Christchurch East 0.9% 66 Clutha Southland 0.5% 31 Rimutaka 0.9% 67 Kaikoura 0.5% 32 Upper Harbour 0.9% 68 Wairarapa 0.4% 33 Nelson 0.8% 69 Waitaki 0.4% 34 Epsom 0.8% 70 Rangitata 0.4% 35 Dunedin South 0.8% 71 Waimakariri 0.4% 36 Rotorua 0.8%

As expected the Mana Party did best amongst the seven Maori seats. They had considerable variation though ranging from 18.7% in Te Tai Tokerau to 5.0% in Te Tai Tonga.

Their next best seats were Auckland Central and Dunedin North on.2.0% and 1.7%. In 28 seats they got over 1%.

Their median seat was Rotorua on 0.8%.

Their worst seats were Waimakariri and Rangitata on 0.4%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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MANA PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 35 Otaki 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1 Auckland Central 1.4% 2.0% 0.6% 36 Rodney 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 2 Dunedin North 1.1% 1.7% 0.6% 37 Hutt South 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 3 Mt Albert 1.0% 1.6% 0.7% 38 Coromandel 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 4 Rongotai 0.9% 1.5% 0.5% 39 Invercargill 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 5 Kelston 0.9% 1.4% 0.5% 40 Northland 0.4% 1.7% 1.3% Wellington 41 Rangitikei 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 6 Central 0.8% 1.5% 0.7% 42 Botany 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 7 Hamilton East 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 43 Selwyn 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Christchurch 44 Whangarei 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 8 Central 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 45 Napier 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 9 New Lynn 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% 46 Hamilton West 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% Palmerston 47 Tukituki 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 10 North 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 48 Kaikoura 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 11 Mt Roskill 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 49 East Coast 0.3% 1.2% 0.9% 12 Maungakiekie 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% 50 Tauranga 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 13 Helensville 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 51 Clutha Southland 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 14 Nelson 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 52 Rangitata 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 15 Dunedin South 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 53 Waimakariri 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 16 Northcote 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% Taranaki-King 17 Hauraki-Waikato 0.6% 8.1% 7.4% 54 Country 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% Christchurch 55 Manurewa 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 18 East 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 56 Waitaki 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 19 Upper Harbour 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 57 Papakura 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 20 Te Atatu 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 58 Hunua 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 21 Rimutaka 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 59 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.3% 9.9% 9.6% 22 Epsom 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 60 Bay of Plenty 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 23 Wigram 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 61 Wairarapa 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 24 Whanganui 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 62 Waikato 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 25 Ilam 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 63 Mangere 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 26 Port Hills 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 64 Taupo 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 27 East Coast Bays 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 65 Manukau East 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 28 Pakuranga 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 66 Rotorua -0.1% 0.8% 0.9% West Coast 29 Tasman 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 67 Te Tai Tonga -1.0% 5.0% 5.9% 68 Te Tai Hauauru -1.4% 6.8% 8.2% 30 North Shore 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% Tamaki 31 New Plymouth 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 69 Makaurau -2.9% 10.8% 13.7% 32 Mana 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 70 Waiariki -5.2% 11.4% 16.6% 33 Tamaki 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 71 Te Tai Tokerau -5.7% 18.7% 24.5% 34 Ohariu 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%

The Mana Party increased their vote in 65 seats and declined in six seats.

Their largest increase was Auckland Central by 1.4% and Dunedin North 1.1%.

Their median increase was Rodney on +0.4%.

The five biggest decreases were in the Maori seats.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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ACT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Pakuranga 3.0% 37 Port Hills 0.4% 2 Epsom 2.7% 38 Rotorua 0.4% 3 Botany 2.4% 39 Tukituki 0.4% 4 Mt Roskill 1.8% 40 Nelson 0.4% 5 East Coast Bays 1.8% 41 Kaikoura 0.4% 6 Northcote 1.6% 42 Selwyn 0.4% 7 New Lynn 1.6% 43 Rangitikei 0.4% 8 Maungakiekie 1.5% 44 Coromandel 0.4% 9 North Shore 1.4% 45 Tauranga 0.4% 10 Tamaki 1.4% 46 Taranaki-King Country 0.4% 11 Te Atatu 1.4% 47 Clutha Southland 0.4% 12 Upper Harbour 1.4% 48 Rimutaka 0.3% 13 Auckland Central 1.2% 49 Dunedin South 0.3% 14 Wigram 1.0% 50 Wairarapa 0.3% 15 Kelston 1.0% 51 Invercargill 0.3% 16 Ilam 1.0% 52 Christchurch East 0.3% 17 Mt Albert 1.0% 53 Dunedin North 0.3% 18 Hunua 0.9% 54 Rongotai 0.3% 19 Helensville 0.7% 55 Otaki 0.3% 20 Hamilton East 0.7% 56 Napier 0.3% 21 Wellington Central 0.7% 57 Waitaki 0.3% 22 Manukau East 0.7% 58 West Coast Tasman 0.3% 23 Ohariu 0.7% 59 Taupo 0.3% 24 Hutt South 0.7% 60 Mangere 0.2% 25 Papakura 0.6% 61 Bay of Plenty 0.2% 26 Manurewa 0.6% 62 East Coast 0.2% 27 Whangarei 0.6% 63 Waimakariri 0.2% 28 Waikato 0.5% 64 Mana 0.2% 29 Palmerston North 0.5% 65 Hauraki-Waikato 0.2% 30 Rodney 0.5% 66 Tamaki Makaurau 0.2% 31 Christchurch Central 0.5% 67 Te Tai Tonga 0.2% 32 Hamilton West 0.5% 68 Te Tai Tokerau 0.2% 33 Whanganui 0.5% 69 Te Tai Hauauru 0.1% 34 New Plymouth 0.5% 70 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.1% 35 Rangitata 0.5% 71 Waiariki 0.1% 36 Northland 0.5%

Act’s highest party vote was in Pakuranga where Jamie Whyte stood – at 3.0%.

They got over 1.2% party vote (enough for a second MP) in 13 seats.

Their median seat was Northland on 0.5%.

The Maori seats were their worst seats followed by Mana.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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ACT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 35 Waimakariri -0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 1 Pakuranga 1.2% 3.0% 1.8% 36 Rongotai -0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 2 Botany 0.7% 2.4% 1.7% 37 Nelson -0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 3 Mt Roskill 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 38 Otaki -0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 4 New Lynn 0.6% 1.6% 1.0% 39 Port Hills -0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 5 Wigram 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 40 Rotorua -0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 6 Te Atatu 0.4% 1.4% 1.0% 41 Papakura -0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 7 Kelston 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 42 Hamilton West -0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 8 Maungakiekie 0.3% 1.5% 1.2% 43 Dunedin North -0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 9 Upper Harbour 0.2% 1.4% 1.1% Wellington 10 Epsom 0.2% 2.7% 2.5% 44 Central -0.5% 0.7% 1.2% 11 Manukau East 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 45 North Shore -0.5% 1.4% 1.9% 12 Northcote 0.2% 1.6% 1.5% 46 Helensville -0.5% 0.7% 1.3% East Coast 47 Rangitata -0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 13 Bays 0.2% 1.8% 1.6% West Coast 14 Mt Albert 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 48 Tasman -0.6% 0.3% 0.8% Tamaki 49 Hunua -0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 15 Makaurau 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 50 Whanganui -0.6% 0.5% 1.1% Hauraki- 51 Selwyn -0.6% 0.4% 1.0% 16 Waikato 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 52 New Plymouth -0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 17 Te Tai Hauauru 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 53 Rodney -0.7% 0.5% 1.2% 18 Te Tai Tonga 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 54 Kaikoura -0.7% 0.4% 1.1% 19 Manurewa 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 55 East Coast -0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 20 Mangere -0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 56 Napier -0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 21 Te Tai Tokerau -0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 57 Waitaki -0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 22 Waiariki -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 58 Tauranga -0.8% 0.4% 1.2% 23 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 59 Invercargill -0.9% 0.3% 1.2% Christchurch 60 Bay of Plenty -0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 24 East -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 61 Taupo -0.9% 0.3% 1.2% 25 Ohariu -0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 62 Coromandel -1.0% 0.4% 1.4% 26 Ilam -0.2% 1.0% 1.2% 63 Wairarapa -1.0% 0.3% 1.3% 27 Hutt South -0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 64 Tukituki -1.1% 0.4% 1.5% Palmerston 65 Tamaki -1.1% 1.4% 2.5% 28 North -0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 66 Rangitikei -1.1% 0.4% 1.5% Christchurch Taranaki-King 29 Central -0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 67 Country -1.1% 0.4% 1.5% Auckland 68 Whangarei -1.2% 0.6% 1.7% 30 Central -0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 69 Northland -1.2% 0.5% 1.6% 31 Mana -0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 70 Waikato -1.4% 0.5% 1.9% 32 Dunedin South -0.3% 0.3% 0.6% Clutha 33 Hamilton East -0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 71 Southland -1.5% 0.4% 1.8% 34 Rimutaka -0.3% 0.3% 0.6%

ACT gained support in 19 seats and lost support in 52 seats.

Their biggest increase was 1.2% in Pakuranga.

The median drop was Nelson on -0.3%

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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UNITED FUTURE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 Ohariu 0.7% 37 Upper Harbour 0.2% 2 Rongotai 0.4% 38 Rodney 0.2% 3 Hutt South 0.3% 39 Mt Roskill 0.2% 4 Northcote 0.3% 40 Port Hills 0.2% 5 Rimutaka 0.3% 41 Northland 0.2% 6 Mana 0.3% 42 Invercargill 0.2% 7 Rangitata 0.3% 43 Clutha Southland 0.2% 8 Wellington Central 0.3% 44 West Coast Tasman 0.2% 9 Hamilton East 0.3% 45 Otaki 0.2% 10 Wigram 0.3% 46 Auckland Central 0.2% 11 Helensville 0.3% 47 Tamaki 0.2% 12 Kaikoura 0.3% 48 Waimakariri 0.2% 13 Ilam 0.3% 49 New Plymouth 0.2% 14 Taupo 0.3% 50 Papakura 0.2% 15 Hamilton West 0.3% 51 Napier 0.2% 16 North Shore 0.3% 52 Coromandel 0.2% 17 Taranaki-King Country 0.3% 53 Dunedin South 0.2% 18 Tauranga 0.3% 54 New Lynn 0.2% 19 Whangarei 0.3% 55 Tukituki 0.2% 20 Nelson 0.2% 56 Epsom 0.2% 21 Dunedin North 0.2% 57 Wairarapa 0.2% 22 Selwyn 0.2% 58 Te Atatu 0.2% 23 Waitaki 0.2% 59 Kelston 0.2% 24 Palmerston North 0.2% 60 Mt Albert 0.2% 25 Maungakiekie 0.2% 61 Botany 0.1% 26 Christchurch Central 0.2% 62 Mangere 0.1% 27 Hunua 0.2% 63 Te Tai Tonga 0.1% 28 Christchurch East 0.2% 64 Manurewa 0.1% 29 Pakuranga 0.2% 65 Te Tai Tokerau 0.1% 30 East Coast 0.2% 66 Tamaki Makaurau 0.1% 31 Waikato 0.2% 67 Te Tai Hauauru 0.1% 32 Rangitikei 0.2% 68 Manukau East 0.1% 33 Bay of Plenty 0.2% 69 Hauraki-Waikato 0.1% 34 Whanganui 0.2% 70 Waiariki 0.0% 35 Rotorua 0.2% 71 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.0% 36 East Coast Bays 0.2%

United’s highest party vote was in Ohariu where Peter Dunne stood – at 0.7%. Second was Rongotai at 0.4%

They got 0.4% party vote or higher in just 2 seats.

Their median seat was East Coast Bays on 0.2%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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UNITED FUTURE PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 Christchurch Tamaki 38 East -0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1 Makaurau 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Wellington 2 Auckland Central 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 39 Central -0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 3 Te Tai Tokerau 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40 Dunedin South -0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 4 Hauraki-Waikato 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 41 Mana -0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 5 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 42 Dunedin North -0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 6 Te Tai Hauauru -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 43 Waimakariri -0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 7 Waiariki -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Palmerston 8 Manukau East -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 44 North -0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 9 Mangere -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 45 Bay of Plenty -0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 10 Manurewa -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 46 Napier -0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 11 Maungakiekie -0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 47 Selwyn -0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 12 Epsom -0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 48 Hamilton West -0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 13 Te Tai Tonga -0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 49 Ilam -0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 14 Botany -0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 50 Tukituki -0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 15 Upper Harbour -0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 51 Hamilton East -0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 16 Mt Roskill -0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 52 Otaki -0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 17 New Lynn -0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 53 Wigram -0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 18 Mt Albert -0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 54 Coromandel -0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 19 Helensville -0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 55 Waikato -0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 20 Rodney -0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 56 Wairarapa -0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 21 Kelston -0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 57 Rangitata -0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 22 Rongotai -0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 58 Rotorua -0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 23 Te Atatu -0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 59 Waitaki -0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 24 Tamaki -0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 60 Rangitikei -0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 25 North Shore -0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 61 Clutha Southland -0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 26 Pakuranga -0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 62 Invercargill -0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 27 Papakura -0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 63 Rimutaka -0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 28 Northcote -0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 64 Kaikoura -0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 29 Northland -0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 65 Hutt South -0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 30 East Coast Bays -0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 66 Taupo -0.7% 0.3% 0.9% 31 Hunua -0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 67 East Coast -0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 32 Whanganui -0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 68 Nelson -0.7% 0.2% 1.0% Taranaki-King 33 Whangarei -0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 69 Country -0.9% 0.3% 1.1% 34 Tauranga -0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 70 Ohariu -1.0% 0.7% 1.7% 35 New Plymouth -0.3% 0.2% 0.5% West Coast 36 Port Hills -0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 71 Tasman -1.2% 0.2% 1.4% Christchurch 37 Central -0.3% 0.2% 0.6%

United Future lost votes in all but one seat – Tamaki Makaurau

The median drop was Port Hills on -0.3%

23 seats had a drop of over -0.5% with the largest being West Coast Tasman which dropped 1.2%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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RIGHT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (National/ACT/United Future/Conservative)

1 East Coast Bays 72.1% 37 Invercargill 53.7% 2 Tamaki 70.3% 38 East Coast 53.1% 3 Hunua 70.0% 39 Hamilton West 53.1% 4 Pakuranga 69.2% 40 Whanganui 53.0% 5 Clutha Southland 69.0% 41 Port Hills 50.7% 6 Epsom 69.0% 42 Nelson 50.6% 7 Rodney 68.6% 43 West Coast Tasman 50.4% 8 Taranaki-King Country 67.7% 44 Hutt South 49.9% 9 North Shore 67.7% 45 Christchurch Central 48.5% 10 Selwyn 67.7% 46 Palmerston North 48.5% 11 Botany 66.7% 47 Auckland Central 48.0% 12 Waikato 66.7% 48 Wigram 47.8% 13 Helensville 64.3% 49 Mt Roskill 47.7% 14 Bay of Plenty 63.8% 50 Maungakiekie 46.5% 15 Ilam 62.7% 51 Te Atatu 46.4% 16 Taupo 62.4% 52 Rimutaka 46.2% 17 Waimakariri 62.2% 53 New Lynn 44.7% 18 Tauranga 62.2% 54 Mana 43.7% 19 Waitaki 62.1% 55 Christchurch East 43.6% 20 Kaikoura 62.0% 56 Dunedin South 43.3% 21 Upper Harbour 60.9% 57 Mt Albert 42.2% 22 Rangitata 60.7% 58 Wellington Central 40.1% 23 Rangitikei 60.3% 59 Kelston 36.4% 24 Coromandel 60.0% 60 Dunedin North 35.6% 25 New Plymouth 59.7% 61 Rongotai 35.0% 26 Tukituki 59.1% 62 Manurewa 31.2% 27 Wairarapa 57.3% 63 Manukau East 23.1% 28 Northcote 57.0% 64 Mangere 19.1% 29 Rotorua 56.7% 65 Te Tai Tonga 15.4% 30 Whangarei 56.3% 66 Te Tai Tokerau 9.5% 31 Papakura 56.2% 67 Hauraki-Waikato 8.6% 32 Napier 56.1% 68 Tamaki Makaurau 8.5% 33 Northland 55.9% 69 Te Tai Hauauru 7.9% 34 Hamilton East 55.9% 70 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 6.2% 35 Ohariu 54.8% 71 Waiariki 5.5% 36 Otaki 54.0%

East Coast Bays at 72.1% had the highest right vote followed by Tamaki. 24 (+10) seats in total had a right vote over 60% and 43 (+7) seats had a right vote of over 50%.

The median electorate was Otaki on 54.0%.

13 seats had a right vote of below 40%.

The lowest electorates after the Maori seats and South Auckland were Rongotai, Dunedin North and Kelston.

The seat with the highest right party vote that Labour won was Napier at 56.1%.

The seat with the lowest right party vote that National won was Maungakiekie at 46.5%. s

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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CENTRE 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (NZ First/Maori)

1 Waiariki 34.7% 37 Kelston 8.8% 2 Te Tai Hauauru 29.4% 38 Waimakariri 8.7% 3 Tamaki Makaurau 27.0% 39 Rangitata 8.1% 4 Hauraki-Waikato 25.3% 40 Tukituki 8.1% 5 Te Tai Tokerau 24.7% 41 Manukau East 8.1% 6 Te Tai Tonga 24.1% 42 Hutt South 8.0% 7 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 23.8% 43 Nelson 8.0% 8 Tauranga 15.1% 44 Helensville 7.9% 9 Bay of Plenty 14.5% 45 Napier 7.9% 10 Whangarei 13.9% 46 Mangere 7.8% 11 Rotorua 13.6% 47 Northcote 7.8% 12 Northland 13.4% 48 Hamilton East 7.8% 13 Coromandel 13.0% 49 Christchurch Central 7.6% 14 East Coast 12.8% 50 New Lynn 7.5% 15 Whanganui 12.5% 51 Pakuranga 7.4% 16 Wairarapa 12.3% 52 Mana 7.4% 17 Rangitikei 11.9% 53 Upper Harbour 7.3% 18 Invercargill 11.5% 54 Selwyn 7.3% 19 Hamilton West 11.4% 55 Waitaki 7.2% 20 Waikato 11.3% 56 Maungakiekie 7.1% 21 Papakura 11.3% 57 Dunedin North 7.1% 22 Taupo 11.1% 58 Port Hills 7.0% 23 Rimutaka 10.7% 59 Clutha Southland 6.6% 24 Otaki 10.4% 60 East Coast Bays 6.3% 25 Kaikoura 10.2% 61 North Shore 6.3% 26 Manurewa 10.2% 62 Rongotai 6.1% 27 Taranaki-King Country 10.0% 63 Auckland Central 5.7% 28 Hunua 10.0% 64 Mt Roskill 5.7% 29 Christchurch East 9.8% 65 Botany 5.7% 30 New Plymouth 9.6% 66 Ilam 5.6% 31 Rodney 9.5% 67 Ohariu 5.3% 32 Dunedin South 9.4% 68 Tamaki 4.9% 33 Palmerston North 9.1% 69 Mt Albert 4.6% 34 Wigram 9.0% 70 Wellington Central 4.4% 35 West Coast Tasman 9.0% 71 Epsom 3.9% 36 Te Atatu 8.8%

After the Maori seats Tauranga is next highest with 15.1% for centre parties, followed by Bay of Plenty and Whangarei.

The median electorate was Te Atatu on 8.8%

The lowest electorates for the centre were Epsom, Wellington Central and Mt Albert.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE (Labour/Greens/ /Mana)

1 Mangere 72.7% 37 Hamilton West 34.6% 2 Manukau East 68.4% 38 Whanganui 33.5% 3 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 68.4% 39 Invercargill 33.3% 4 Hauraki-Waikato 64.3% 40 East Coast 33.1% 5 Te Tai Tokerau 64.3% 41 Tukituki 32.1% 6 Tamaki Makaurau 63.5% 42 Papakura 31.9% 7 Te Tai Hauauru 61.0% 43 Upper Harbour 31.3% 8 Rongotai 58.4% 44 Ilam 31.3% 9 Te Tai Tonga 58.4% 45 Rangitata 30.2% 10 Waiariki 58.2% 46 New Plymouth 29.9% 11 Manurewa 58.2% 47 Waitaki 29.5% 12 Dunedin North 56.5% 48 Wairarapa 29.4% 13 Wellington Central 54.9% 49 Northland 29.2% 14 Kelston 54.3% 50 Rotorua 28.7% 15 Mt Albert 52.9% 51 Whangarei 28.7% 16 Mana 48.2% 52 Waimakariri 28.2% 17 New Lynn 47.2% 53 Botany 27.2% 18 Dunedin South 46.4% 54 Helensville 27.1% 19 Mt Roskill 46.2% 55 Rangitikei 26.9% 20 Maungakiekie 45.8% 56 Epsom 26.8% 21 Auckland Central 45.8% 57 Kaikoura 26.7% 22 Christchurch East 45.7% 58 Coromandel 26.2% 23 Te Atatu 44.3% 59 North Shore 25.6% 24 Christchurch Central 43.1% 60 Taupo 25.3% 25 Rimutaka 42.3% 61 Selwyn 24.4% 26 Wigram 42.2% 62 Tamaki 24.3% 27 Palmerston North 41.8% 63 Pakuranga 22.9% 28 Port Hills 41.7% 64 Clutha Southland 22.9% 29 Hutt South 41.5% 65 Tauranga 22.0% 30 Nelson 39.7% 66 Rodney 21.4% 31 Ohariu 39.3% 67 Taranaki-King Country 21.1% 32 West Coast Tasman 37.3% 68 Waikato 21.1% 33 Hamilton East 35.8% 69 East Coast Bays 21.0% 34 Napier 35.3% 70 Bay of Plenty 20.8% 35 Otaki 35.0% 71 Hunua 19.3% 36 Northcote 34.7%

Mangere at 72.7% had the highest left vote followed by Manukau East. 15 seats in total had a left vote over 50%.

The median electorate was Northcote on 34.7%.

42 seats have a total left vote of under 40% and 26 under 30%.

The lowest electorates for the left were Hunua, Bay of Plenty and East Coast Bays.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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RIGHT – LEFT 2014 PARTY VOTE PERCENTAGE

1 East Coast Bays 51.0% 37 Whanganui 19.5% 2 Hunua 50.7% 38 Otaki 19.0% 3 Rodney 47.2% 39 Hamilton West 18.5% 4 Taranaki-King Country 46.6% 40 Ohariu 15.5% 5 Pakuranga 46.3% 41 West Coast Tasman 13.1% 6 Clutha Southland 46.1% 42 Nelson 10.9% 7 Tamaki 46.0% 43 Port Hills 9.0% 8 Waikato 45.6% 44 Hutt South 8.4% 9 Selwyn 43.3% 45 Palmerston North 6.7% 10 Bay of Plenty 43.0% 46 Wigram 5.6% 11 Epsom 42.2% 47 Christchurch Central 5.4% 12 North Shore 42.2% 48 Rimutaka 3.9% 13 Tauranga 40.2% 49 Auckland Central 2.2% 14 Botany 39.5% 50 Te Atatu 2.1% 15 Helensville 37.2% 51 Mt Roskill 1.5% 16 Taupo 37.1% 52 Maungakiekie 0.7% 17 Kaikoura 35.2% 53 Christchurch East -2.1% 18 Waimakariri 34.0% 54 New Lynn -2.5% 19 Coromandel 33.8% 55 Dunedin South -3.1% 20 Rangitikei 33.4% 56 Mana -4.4% 21 Waitaki 32.5% 57 Mt Albert -10.7% 22 Ilam 31.4% 58 Wellington Central -14.8% 23 Rangitata 30.5% 59 Kelston -17.8% 24 New Plymouth 29.8% 60 Dunedin North -20.9% 25 Upper Harbour 29.6% 61 Rongotai -23.4% 26 Rotorua 28.0% 62 Manurewa -27.0% 27 Wairarapa 27.9% 63 Te Tai Tonga -42.9% 28 Whangarei 27.6% 64 Manukau East -45.3% 29 Tukituki 27.0% 65 Waiariki -52.7% 30 Northland 26.8% 66 Te Tai Hauauru -53.1% 31 Papakura 24.3% 67 Mangere -53.6% 32 Northcote 22.3% 68 Te Tai Tokerau -54.8% 33 Napier 20.7% 69 Tamaki Makaurau -55.0% 34 Invercargill 20.4% 70 Hauraki-Waikato -55.7% 35 Hamilton East 20.1% 71 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -62.2% 36 East Coast 20.0%

East Coast Bays had the largest margin between the vote for the right and the left at 51.0%. They are followed by Hunua and Rodney.

23 seats have a greater than 30% gap, and 52 seats (out of 71) have the right with more votes than the left.

In 19 seats the left got more votes than the right, In 12 of those seats, by more than 20%.

The median electorate was east Coast with the right 20.0% ahead of the left.

The seven Maori seats and South Auckland are most favourable to the left with party vote margins of over 25%.

The seat with the highest right-left margin Labour won was Napier at +20.7%. The seat with the lowest right- left margin that National won was Maungakiekie at 0.7%.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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RIGHT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 39 Waikato 0.3% 66.7% 66.4% 1 New Lynn 4.5% 44.7% 40.2% 40 Whanganui 0.3% 53.0% 52.7% 2 Rangitata 3.2% 60.7% 57.5% 41 Northcote 0.2% 57.0% 56.8% 3 New Plymouth 2.6% 59.7% 57.0% 42 Hauraki-Waikato 0.1% 8.6% 8.5% 4 Mangere 2.6% 19.1% 16.5% 43 Hamilton East 0.0% 55.9% 55.8% 5 Otaki 2.5% 54.0% 51.4% 44 Wairarapa 0.0% 57.3% 57.3% 6 Napier 2.1% 56.1% 54.0% 45 Wigram 0.0% 47.8% 47.9% 7 Waitaki 2.0% 62.1% 60.0% Palmerston 8 Manurewa 2.0% 31.2% 29.2% 46 North -0.1% 48.5% 48.5% 9 Mt Roskill 1.9% 47.7% 45.8% 47 Papakura -0.1% 56.2% 56.3% 10 Coromandel 1.7% 60.0% 58.3% Taranaki-King 11 Ohariu 1.6% 54.8% 53.2% 48 Country -0.1% 67.7% 67.9% 12 East Coast Bays 1.5% 72.1% 70.6% 49 Rimutaka -0.2% 46.2% 46.4% 13 Manukau East 1.4% 23.1% 21.7% 50 Invercargill -0.2% 53.7% 53.9% 14 Hutt South 1.4% 49.9% 48.5% 51 Rongotai -0.3% 35.0% 35.3% 15 Maungakiekie 1.3% 46.5% 45.2% 52 Rotorua -0.4% 56.7% 57.0% Wellington 16 Mt Albert 1.3% 42.2% 40.9% 53 Central -0.4% 40.1% 40.5% 17 Tauranga 1.3% 62.2% 60.9% 54 Ikaroa-Rawhiti -0.5% 6.2% 6.6% 18 Hunua 1.1% 70.0% 68.9% 55 Te Tai Tokerau -0.5% 9.5% 10.0% 19 Bay of Plenty 1.1% 63.8% 62.7% 56 Te Tai Hauauru -0.6% 7.9% 8.4% 20 Hamilton West 0.9% 53.1% 52.2% 57 Te Tai Tonga -0.6% 15.4% 16.0% 21 North Shore 0.9% 67.7% 66.8% Tamaki 22 Dunedin South 0.9% 43.3% 42.4% 58 Makaurau -0.6% 8.5% 9.1% 23 Mana 0.9% 43.7% 42.9% 59 Helensville -0.6% 64.3% 64.9% 24 Auckland Central 0.8% 48.0% 47.3% Christchurch 25 Kaikoura 0.7% 62.0% 61.2% 60 Central -0.7% 48.5% 49.2% 26 Nelson 0.7% 50.6% 49.8% 61 Waiariki -0.7% 5.5% 6.2% 27 Te Atatu 0.7% 46.4% 45.7% West Coast 28 Selwyn 0.6% 67.7% 67.1% 62 Tasman -0.8% 50.4% 51.2% 29 Tukituki 0.6% 59.1% 58.5% 63 Whangarei -0.9% 56.3% 57.1% 30 Pakuranga 0.6% 69.2% 68.6% 64 Rodney -0.9% 68.6% 69.5% 31 Tamaki 0.6% 70.3% 69.8% 65 Upper Harbour -1.0% 60.9% 61.9% 32 Epsom 0.5% 69.0% 68.4% 66 Dunedin North -1.0% 35.6% 36.6% 33 Rangitikei 0.4% 60.3% 60.0% 67 East Coast -1.2% 53.1% 54.4% 34 Taupo 0.3% 62.4% 62.1% 68 Northland -1.6% 55.9% 57.5% 35 Ilam 0.3% 62.7% 62.3% 69 Port Hills -2.0% 50.7% 52.7% 36 Waimakariri 0.3% 62.2% 61.9% 70 Kelston -2.7% 36.4% 39.1% 37 Clutha Southland 0.3% 69.0% 68.7% Christchurch 38 Botany 0.3% 66.7% 66.4% 71 East -3.6% 43.6% 47.2%

The largest increase in right vote was New Lynn at 4.5% and then Rangitata at 3.2%.

45 of 71 electorates had an increase in the party vote for the right.

The median change was Waimakariri on +0.3%

The largest drops in support for the right was Christchurch East on 3.6% and Kelston.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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LEFT PARTY VOTE CHANGE 11 TO 14

Change 2014 2011 36 Mt Roskill -4.6% 46.2% 50.8% 1 Te Tai Tokerau 20.5% 64.3% 43.8% 37 Hutt South -4.9% 41.5% 46.4% 2 Waiariki 14.0% 58.2% 44.2% 38 Hamilton East -5.0% 35.8% 40.8% Tamaki 39 Selwyn -5.0% 24.4% 29.4% 3 Makaurau 11.8% 63.5% 51.7% 40 Clutha Southland -5.1% 22.9% 28.0% 4 Hauraki-Waikato 10.3% 64.3% 54.1% 41 Tauranga -5.2% 22.0% 27.2% 5 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 9.0% 68.4% 59.3% 42 Pakuranga -5.4% 22.9% 28.4% 6 Te Tai Hauauru 7.4% 61.0% 53.6% 43 Northland -5.5% 29.2% 34.6% 7 Te Tai Tonga 3.4% 58.4% 55.0% 44 Manurewa -5.5% 58.2% 63.6% 8 Auckland Central 0.3% 45.8% 45.5% 45 Tukituki -5.5% 32.1% 37.6% Wellington Palmerston 9 Central -0.5% 54.9% 55.4% 46 North -5.6% 41.8% 47.4% 10 Dunedin North -0.7% 56.5% 57.2% 47 Invercargill -5.9% 33.3% 39.1% 11 Kelston -1.0% 54.3% 55.2% 48 Whanganui -6.0% 33.5% 39.4% 12 Rongotai -1.1% 58.4% 59.5% Taranaki-King 13 Mt Albert -1.5% 52.9% 54.4% 49 Country -6.0% 21.1% 27.2% 14 Port Hills -1.5% 41.7% 43.2% 50 East Coast Bays -6.2% 21.0% 27.2% Christchurch 51 Taupo -6.2% 25.3% 31.5% 15 East -1.5% 45.7% 47.3% 52 Rimutaka -6.2% 42.3% 48.5% 16 Epsom -2.0% 26.8% 28.7% 53 Waimakariri -6.3% 28.2% 34.5% 17 Tamaki -2.6% 24.3% 26.9% 54 Bay of Plenty -6.3% 20.8% 27.1% 18 Dunedin South -3.2% 46.4% 49.6% 55 Nelson -6.4% 39.7% 46.1% 19 Manukau East -3.3% 68.4% 71.7% 56 Whangarei -6.5% 28.7% 35.2% 20 Ilam -3.4% 31.3% 34.7% 57 Waikato -6.6% 21.1% 27.7% Christchurch 58 Waitaki -6.7% 29.5% 36.3% 21 Central -3.4% 43.1% 46.5% 59 Coromandel -6.9% 26.2% 33.1% 22 Upper Harbour -3.6% 31.3% 34.9% 60 Napier -6.9% 35.3% 42.3% 23 Botany -3.7% 27.2% 30.9% 61 Hunua -7.0% 19.3% 26.3% 24 Maungakiekie -3.7% 45.8% 49.6% 62 Hamilton West -7.0% 34.6% 41.7% 25 North Shore -3.8% 25.6% 29.3% 63 New Plymouth -7.1% 29.9% 36.9% 26 Northcote -3.8% 34.7% 38.5% West Coast 27 Ohariu -3.9% 39.3% 43.1% 64 Tasman -7.3% 37.3% 44.6% 28 East Coast -3.9% 33.1% 37.0% 65 Rodney -7.3% 21.4% 28.8% 29 Wigram -4.1% 42.2% 46.4% 66 Otaki -7.4% 35.0% 42.3% 30 Mana -4.1% 48.2% 52.3% 67 Wairarapa -7.5% 29.4% 36.9% 31 Rotorua -4.1% 28.7% 32.9% 68 New Lynn -7.5% 47.2% 54.7% 32 Te Atatu -4.3% 44.3% 48.6% 69 Rangitata -7.7% 30.2% 37.9% 33 Helensville -4.5% 27.1% 31.6% 70 Kaikoura -8.0% 26.7% 34.7% 34 Mangere -4.6% 72.7% 77.3% 71 Rangitikei -8.3% 26.9% 35.2% 35 Papakura -4.6% 31.9% 36.5%

The only increases in left vote were the seven Maori seats, plus Auckland Central.

The median change was Mt Roskill on -4.6%

The largest drops in support for the left was Rangitikei and Kaikoura.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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2014 VALID (PARTY) VOTERS

1 Port Hills 39,865 37 Whanganui 35,295 2 Waitaki 39,639 38 East Coast 35,279 3 Rodney 39,323 39 Dunedin North 35,032 4 Wellington Central 39,030 40 Hamilton East 34,767 5 Hutt South 38,962 41 Rangitikei 34,665 6 Rongotai 38,514 42 Papakura 34,579 7 North Shore 38,507 43 Maungakiekie 34,561 8 Otaki 38,412 44 Pakuranga 34,520 9 Nelson 38,050 45 Palmerston North 34,334 10 Coromandel 37,931 46 Christchurch Central 34,264 11 Dunedin South 37,628 47 Clutha Southland 34,229 12 Epsom 37,582 48 Invercargill 34,113 13 New Plymouth 37,553 49 Rotorua 33,927 14 Wairarapa 37,409 50 Mt Roskill 33,921 15 Ohariu 37,324 51 Hamilton West 33,670 16 Tauranga 37,142 52 Taranaki-King Country 33,579 17 Rimutaka 37,035 53 Botany 33,556 18 Whangarei 36,832 54 New Lynn 33,484 19 Mt Albert 36,746 55 Upper Harbour 33,273 20 Tamaki 36,670 56 Te Atatu 33,112 21 Kaikoura 36,669 57 East Coast Bays 32,968 22 Mana 36,638 58 Christchurch East 32,489 23 Bay of Plenty 36,587 59 Kelston 30,701 24 Napier 36,460 60 Wigram 30,567 25 Taupo 36,241 61 Auckland Central 28,157 26 Rangitata 36,197 62 Manurewa 27,490 27 Waimakariri 36,054 63 Mangere 27,338 28 Tukituki 35,922 64 Manukau East 26,569 29 Hunua 35,876 65 Te Tai Tokerau 22,651 30 Selwyn 35,875 66 Waiariki 22,169 31 Waikato 35,873 67 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 21,811 32 West Coast Tasman 35,861 68 Hauraki-Waikato 20,914 33 Northland 35,553 69 Tamaki Makaurau 20,644 34 Helensville 35,361 70 Te Tai Tonga 20,605 35 Ilam 35,304 71 Te Tai Hauauru 20,465 36 Northcote 35,299

Port Hills had the highest number of valid voters at 39,865 followed by Port Hills and Waitaki.

The median electorate was Northcote with 35,299 votes. The mean was 33,882.

After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland and then Auckland Central.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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2014 TURNOUT

1 Wellington Central 84.6% 37 North Shore 79.0% 2 Selwyn 84.4% 38 Rangitata 78.7% 3 Ohariu 83.7% 39 Clutha Southland 78.7% 4 Rongotai 83.6% 40 Epsom 78.6% 5 Otaki 83.1% 41 Auckland Central 78.5% 6 Helensville 82.9% 42 Christchurch Central 78.5% 7 Mana 82.3% 43 New Plymouth 78.1% 8 Rodney 82.2% 44 Hamilton East 77.7% 9 Waitaki 82.0% 45 East Coast 77.4% 10 Dunedin South 82.0% 46 Whanganui 77.2% 11 Port Hills 81.9% 47 Papakura 76.9% 12 Waimakariri 81.8% 48 Invercargill 76.9% 13 Hutt South 81.7% 49 Christchurch East 76.9% 14 Rangitikei 81.4% 50 Maungakiekie 76.8% 15 Hunua 81.1% 51 Northcote 76.6% 16 Napier 81.1% 52 Wigram 76.3% 17 Tamaki 81.0% 53 New Lynn 76.0% 18 Rimutaka 81.0% 54 Te Atatu 75.9% 19 Bay of Plenty 80.6% 55 East Coast Bays 75.9% 20 Wairarapa 80.6% 56 Hamilton West 75.7% 21 Taranaki-King Country 80.5% 57 Pakuranga 75.5% 22 West Coast Tasman 80.5% 58 Mt Roskill 75.0% 23 Mt Albert 80.4% 59 Kelston 74.3% 24 Kaikoura 80.3% 60 Upper Harbour 74.3% 25 Tauranga 80.3% 61 Botany 71.9% 26 Nelson 80.2% 62 Manurewa 70.2% 27 Tukituki 80.2% 63 Manukau East 69.7% 28 Palmerston North 80.2% 64 Mangere 69.4% 29 Dunedin North 80.2% 65 Te Tai Tokerau 69.3% 30 Northland 80.1% 66 Waiariki 66.3% 31 Coromandel 80.0% 67 Ikaroa-Rawhiti 66.3% 32 Waikato 79.6% 68 Te Tai Hauauru 65.9% 33 Ilam 79.5% 69 Hauraki-Waikato 63.6% 34 Rotorua 79.3% 70 Te Tai Tonga 63.6% 35 Taupo 79.3% 71 Tamaki Makaurau 60.6% 36 Whangarei 79.2%

Wellington Central had the highest turnout at 84.6% followed by Selwyn and Ohariu.

The median electorate was Whangarei at 79.2%.

After the seven Maori seats which traditionally always have the lowest turnouts, we have South Auckland and then Botany.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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2014 PARTY VOTE PLACINGS

NAT LAB GRE NZF CON MAO MAN ACT UF 1st 60 11 2nd 4 55 4 4 3 1 3rd 1 5 33 30 2 0 4th 0 31 36 2 1 1 5th 1 3 1 60 1 4 1 6th 5 2 6 42 15 1 7th 7 21 22 21 8th 35 1 31 4 9th 2 3 66

This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. in the party vote. This is out of the seven parliamentary parties plus NZ First only.

National won the party vote in 60 of the 71 seats, was 2nd in 4 and 3rd to 6th or the seven Maori seats.

Labour won the party vote in 11 seats and was 2nd in 55 seats. In five seats they came third - .

The Greens were 2rd in 4 seats and 3rd in 33 seats. Median placing was 3rd.

NZ First were 2nd in the party vote in 4 electorates, 3rd in the party vote in 30 seats Median placing was 4th.

Conservatives were 5th in 60 seats. Median placing was 5th.

The Maori Party were 2nd in three seats. Median placing was 8th.

Mana was 2nd in one seat and 4th in 1 seat, Median placing was 6th.

ACT were 5th in 1 seat. Median placing was 7th.

United Future were 6th in 1 seat. Median placing was 9th.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]

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2014 ELECTORATE VOTE PLACINGS

NAT LAB GRE NZF CON MAO MAN ACT UF 1st 41 27 1 1 1 2nd 22 39 3 1 4 2 3rd 1 5 39 16 6 2 2 4th 15 13 31 1 5 2 5th 1 26 2 6 18 1 6th 1 8 14 12 6 7th 6 3 5 5 8th 1 1 3

This shows the number of seats in which each party came 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. in the electorate vote. This is out of the parliamentary parties (and Conservatives) only.

National won the electorate vote in 41 seats, was 2nd in 22 of them and 3rd in one seat (Ohariu-Belmont).

Labour won the electorate vote in 27 of the 70 seats, was 2nd in 39 seats and 3rd in five seats.

The Greens were 2nd in three seats and 3rd in 30 seats.

NZ First were 3rd in 16 seats.

The Maori Party won one Maori seat and were 2nd in four others.

Mana were 2nd in two seats, 3rd in two seats and 4th in five seats.

Conservatives were 2nd in one seat (East Coast Bays) and 3rd in six further seats.

2014 Election Results Analysis © David Farrar, [email protected]