1 Uncertainty in flow and sediment projections due to future climate 2 scenarios for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong Basin 3 Bikesh Shresthaa, Thomas A. Cochranea*, Brian S. Carusob, Mauricio E. Ariasc and Thanapon 4 Pimand 5 aDepartment of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, 6 New Zealand 7 b USGS Colorado Water Science Center Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO 80225, USA 8 c Sustainability Science Program Harvard University, and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 9 University of South Florida, Tampa, FL. 10 d Mekong River Commission Secretariat, Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative, P.O. Box 6101, Unit 18 Ban 11 Sithane Neua, Sikhottabong District,Vientiane 01000, Lao PDR 12 *Corresponding author. Tel.:+6433642378. E-mail address:
[email protected] 13 Abstract 14 Reliable projections of discharge and sediment are essential for future water and sediment 15 management plans under climate change, but these are subject to numerous uncertainties. This 16 study assessed the uncertainty in flow and sediment projections using the Soil and Water 17 Assessment Tool (SWAT) associated with three Global Climate Models (GCMs), three 18 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and three model parameter (MP) sets for the 3S 19 Rivers in the Mekong River Basin. The uncertainty was analyzed for the near-term future (2021- 20 2040 or 2030s) and medium-term future (2051-2070 or 2060s) time horizons. Results show that 21 dominant sources of uncertainty in flow and sediment constituents vary spatially across the 3S 22 basin. For peak flow, peak sediment, and wet seasonal flows projection, the greatest uncertainty 23 sources also vary with time horizon.