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Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 07 Nov 2019 08:37 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article

Flutter Entertainment FY19 guidance reiterated Company Events 07-Nov ; Q3 Trading Update HeidelbergCement Solid update with good cashflow Flutter Entertainment; Q319 Trading Update Howden Joinery; Trading update Howden Joinery Hats off to Howden for a strong Lufthansa; Q319 Trading Update performance Persimmon; Q319 Trading Update Provident Financial; Q319 Trading Update Persimmon Set to become a 4-star builder Supermarket Income REIT; AGM 08-Nov IAG; October2019 Traffic Stats The Stars Group Q3 earnings release 12-Nov Air France-KLM; October2019 Traffic Stats DCC; Q220 Results Provident Financial 3Q19 Update Reassures Once Again ; Q3 trading update Hibernia REIT; H1 2020 Interim Results Lufthansa Q3 beat on better CASK performance; Outlook 13-Nov Gamesys Group; Q319 Results supported by EU capacity reductions ; Q220 Results IPL Plastics; Q319 Results Derwent London Q3 Trading update is solid with no J D Wetherspoon; Q120 Trading Update surprises Lufthansa; October2019 Traffic Stats OneSavings Bank; Q319 Trading Update FBD Holdings RSA records lower claims costs yoy in Q3 Taylor Wimpey; Q319 Trading Update ; Q220 Results

Economic View UK Housing Monitor – London adjusting, Economic Events South and SE look vulnerable Ireland

United Kingdom

United States

Europe

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Flutter Entertainment FY19 guidance reiterated

Flutter Entertainment has this morning released a Q3 trading update. Group revenue Recommendation: Restricted increased +10% or 6% excluding Adjarabet (acquired in Q1 this year). The drivers of group Closing Price: £80.30 revenue growth were Australia which saw revenues +19% yoy and the US where revenues were +67% yoy. The outlook remains unchanged, with Group (exUS) EBITDA guidance of Gavin Kelleher +353-1-641 0423 £420-440m (Company compiled consensus of £431m). The group has reduced the expected [email protected] US EBITDA losses to c£40-45m, compared to a previous expectation of £55m (consensus - £57m).

Online revenue declined by -1% to £247m (ex Adjarabet -c.8-9%). The statement notes that performance was affected by a combination of ongoing enhancements to responsible gambling measures, international market switch offs and a challenging World Cup comp. Sports revenue declined by -6%, however this would have grown by 5% ex the World Cup and market switch offs.

Australian Q3 revenue increased by 19% to £119m driven by a 290 bps improvement in net revenue margin to 11.4%. This strong margin reflects a number of factors including a 50bp structural improvement in expected margin and a 170bps improvement owing to favourable sporting results. As a result of the uncharacteristically high margin, stakes were down 11% due to lower levels of customer recycling. The statement notes that in response to bookmaker friendly results it increased its targeted customer generosity in Q3 before the all important Q4 period.

US revenues were +67% yoy in Q3, driven by excellent sportsbook and gaming performances. The group launched in 5 new states in the quarter (two online and three retail). It remains the clear market leader in New Jersey and has succeeded in achieving a leading market position in Pennsylvania since launching in July

Disclaimer Goodbody acts as Corporate Broker to Flutter Entertainment plc (the “Company”). Following the announcement of the Company’s proposed all share combination through an acquisition of The Stars Group Inc (the “Transaction”), Goodbody will withhold any price target or recommendation until the conclusion of the Transaction. Any information included in this document relating to the Company should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice.

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HeidelbergCement Solid update with good cashflow

HeidelbergCement has reported Q319 group EBITDA (incl JVs) of €1,095m (pre IFRS) Recommendation: Buy representing yoy growth of 5% or 1.2% on a lfl basis. This compares to Goodbody’s forecast Closing Price: €68.04 of €1,107m (1% behind) or 3% lfl growth. The main variances versus our forecasts appears to be good performances in Western Europe and Africa offset by a lower than anticipated David O'Brien +353-1-641 9230 outturn in North America (mainly due to lower one-off quarry sales). In the outlook, david.a.o'[email protected] management has reiterated guidance for moderate revenue, EBITDA and eps growth. Cash generation remains solid with guidance for FY19 year-end net debt of €7.4bn which

compares to €7.7bn previously.

Overall, we believe this is a solid update from HeidelbergCement. Our forecasts imply double digit group EBITDA growth for Q419 which given the easy comparator (-4%) would appear achievable but somewhat dependent on quarry sales.

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Howden Joinery Hats off to Howden for a strong performance

Howden Joinery has reported that UK sales have grown by 4.9% for Periods 7-11 (16 June to Recommendation: Sell 2 November), reflecting 2% on a same depot basis. This compares to 5.5% and 3.4% Closing Price: £5.86 respectively for the first half (Periods 1-6) and our forecasts of 5.1% / 2.5% for the second half which we also believe to be broadly consistent with that of consensus. Management Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 notes that the company is on track to meet the Board’s expectations for sales and profits for [email protected] the full year.

Other points of note in the release are: (i) Management continues to expect to open 40 new

depots in the UK in 2019 including 5 in Northern Ireland. It opened 14 in H1; and, (ii) In This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates terms of the international expansion, management continues to expect 5 new depots to be opened in France with 1 opened in H1.

Overall, we believe this is an impressive performance from Howden, particularly given all the recent rhetoric regarding the deteriorating backdrop in the UK. At first glance we envisage making limited changes to forecasts, which is comforting.

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Persimmon Set to become a 4-star builder

Persimmon has this morning released a trading update covering the period from Recommendation: Buy July 1st to Nov 6th. The key takeaways from the release for us are: Closing Price: £22.76

i) Current Trading – Management has indicted that trading over the summer David O'Brien +353-1-641 9230 weeks has been “in line” with expectations and indeed have seen the usual “pickup” in david.a.o'[email protected] consumer activity in the Autumn selling season. Reservation rates at 0.67 remain stable yoy while prices are described as “firm” in regional markets.

Moreover, Persimmon has reported a forward sales position of £950m. This represents a decline of 3.7% which is broadly flat on previous months (-3% in Aug, -3% in July). Indeed management state that it is a “resilient” reading as the group continues to slow forward sales and place more emphasis on customer satisfaction levels;

ii) HBF survey – Management state that they are currently trending “strongly ahead” of the 4 star HBF rating;

iii) Outlook – The group state that consumer confidence has “remained resilient” and that market fundamentals remain supportive (wage growth, strong employment, low interest rates etc.).

Management will host a conference call at 9am with the dial in details as follows; Dial in: +44 (0) 33 3300 0804; Access PIN: 77391028#; Password: Persimmon.

Overall this is a comforting statement from Persimmon and we do not envisage any changes to forecasts. Indeed we believe that with its share price still lagging behind peers (up 17% ytd compared to peers up c.30%), the double digit yield offered and the strength of the company’s balance sheet, Persimmon continues to offer an attractive risk return profile. Maintain BUY.

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The Stars Group Q3 earnings release

The Stars Group has released its Q3 results to September 30th 2019. Group revenue was Recommendation: Restricted +8.8% at $622m. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $240m, +21% yoy. On guidance, Closing Price: $21.46 management has reiterated the previously guided range of $905m - $930m (Bloomberg consensus: $911m). The group finished the quarter with net debt of $4.6bn. On synergies, David Brohan +353-1-641 9450 the group expects to exit 2019 with a run-rate of the full $100m of expected cost synergies. [email protected]

International revenue declined by 8% as it continued to be adversely impacted by disrupted

markets and FX. Within International, Betting came in -14% (-9% cc), Casino was +2% (+5% cc) and Poker was -11% (-8%cc). “Disrupted markets” (14% of International revenues) declined by 32% in the quarter, while the rest of world increased by 3% cc. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $167m, -9% yoy.

In the UK, revenue increased by 35% and Adjusted EBITDA came in 174% higher. Betting revenue was 52% higher yoy with stakes +12.6% and net win margin +240bps. Gaming increased by 16%, Poker -1% and Other +27%. In Australia revenue increased by 34% (+43% cc) with a very strong net win margin of 9.6% (+330bps) more than offsetting -12% decline in stakes. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $8.6m, with Adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.2%.

In the US, the group has launched FOX Bet in New Jersey and Pennsylvania along with its Free to Play (FTP) games nationwide. Super 6, its FTP game has been downloaded 820k times and has had more than 7.5m total contest entries. EBITDA losses in the US are expected to be c.$40m as was previously disclosed

Disclaimer: Goodbody acts as Corporate Broker to Flutter Entertainment plc (the “Company”). Following the announcement of the Company’s proposed all share combination through an acquisition of The Stars Group Inc (the “Transaction”), Goodbody will withhold any price target or recommendation until the conclusion of the Transaction. Any information included in this document relating to the Company should not be construed as a recommendation or investment advice.

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Provident Financial 3Q19 Update Reassures Once Again

Provident Financial Group (PFG) published a 3Q19 trading statement to end-September 2019 Recommendation: Buy this morning ahead of the Capital Markets Day later, with all key trends in line with what we Closing Price: £4.37 communicated within our preview in our Sector Perspectives Digest email yesterday. The key points to call out are: i) customer numbers growth was as expected in each business, with a John Cronin +353-1-641 9187 slight slowdown in bookings at Vanquis Bank as a result of tighter underwriting standards, [email protected] continued strong growth in Moneybarn (+24% y/y), and a further moderation in the pace of attrition in CCD – with the overall trends boding well for receivables growth guidance (and all

bang in line with what we had expected); ii) Vanquis, Moneybarn, and CCD receivables were £1.4bn, £490m, and £235m respectively at 30th September, in line with our receivables forecasts; iii) delinquency and arrears rates were stable, with Vanquis Bank, critically, showing “a favourable movement”; iv) PFG comforted on persistent debt, having successfully worked through two-thirds of the 15% of Vanquis Bank customers at September 2018 who met the definition of persistent debt at that point; v) continued demonstration of cost takeout, particularly in CCD, which has committed to reducing its cost base to <£200m in 2020; and vi) PFG remains well capitalised with c.£60m of headroom against the TCR (implying a CET1 capital ratio of >28%).

While this morning’s announcement principally reflects the trading update for 3Q19, we do get a broad outline of the topics that will be addressed at the Capital Markets Day session this afternoon. PFG reiterates its medium-term objectives to attain a RoA of 10% and a RoE of 20%-25% (by 2021). PFG has committed to growing the receivables book to £3bn over a 5-year timeframe, comprising c.£2bn Vanquis Bank (c.7% implied 5Y CAGR, despite flat net loans growth guidance through to end-FY20F), c.£750m Moneybarn (c.9% CAGR) and c.£300m CCD (c.5% CAGR). The strong growth in Moneybarn will be supported by further optimisation of the funding base, with PFG in advanced talks in relation to a securitisation facility to commence in 1Q20. We expect to hear much more on restructuring progress, cost extraction, funding opportunities, capital efficiencies, and, more broadly, strategic opportunities this afternoon.

PFG is a materially undervalued restructuring play and has witnessed intense selling pressure YTD despite the overwhelmingly positive bias of the news on its turnaround progress – with the 3Q19 update a further testament to management delivery. We look forward to hearing more at the CMD in relation to the initiatives that will differentiate PFG further from its non-standard lending peers. Indeed, we

believe that PFG will have a real opportunity, in time, to act as consolidator in its This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates chosen segments, particularly given the remarkable progress made in addressing regulatory issues – distinguishing it from the pack.

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Lufthansa Q3 beat on better CASK performance; Outlook supported by EU capacity reductions

Lufthansa group has recorded Q319 revenue of €10.177bn and an Adj.EBIT of €1.297bn, - Recommendation: Hold 8% yoy, which is 6.3% ahead of average consensus of €1,223bn. Closing Price: €16.16

The network airlines recorded a RASK reduction at cc of 2.2% (-1.6% in Q219) and Nuala McMahon +353-1-641 0498 compares to consensus of -1.5% yoy while the beat was on the CASK (cc) side which [email protected] decreased 2.1% yoy (cons -0.7%). Eurowings recorded a RASK increase of 3.5% (-2.1% in Q219) vs consensus of -3.3% and CASK at cc was down 0.1% yoy (cons -7.3%). Within

Eurowings, short haul yields were down 2.6% (-4% in Q219) while LH was up 13.6% (+8.5% in Q219).

On outlook, group Adj. EBIT is unchanged with a guided range of €2.0 to €2.4bn (consensus €2.050bn, GBY €2.046bn) based on a low single digit % increase in total revenue and an Adj. EBIT margin of 5.5%-6.5%. Fuel is guided to increase some €650m above their 2018 levels (while the presentation shows this as an increase of €700m, prev. €550m). Other changes to guidance include the mix within Eurowings, which now expects to record RASK down low single digit (prev. down mid-single digit) and CASK down 4 to 5% (prev. down 6- 8%) while the Adj.EBIT margin remains unchanged at -4% to -6%. The logistics business is guided to record an Adj.EBIT margin of 0 to 2% (prev. +3% to +5%) in light of weak market demand.

Overall, the results read better than expected, and with the presentation pointing to LCC capacity (ASK) reduction in its main hubs (FRA -31% yoy, ZUR -13% yoy, MUN -20% yoy) and overall market seat capacity -1% yoy in Europe over the Winter, this should be well received given consensus FY19 Adj. EBIT of €2.05bn is at the bottom end of guidance.

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Derwent London Q3 Trading update is solid with no surprises

Derwent London (DLN:LN) announced a solid trading update this morning, illustrating the Recommendation: Sell continued strength of the business focusing on lettings, developments, and the balance Closing Price: £35.72 sheet. On lettings, the period saw £15.4m of new rental income secured (£14.6m across 218,500 sq.ft in Q3-18), aided by the pre-letting announced on Monday of almost the Colm Lauder +353-1-641 6042 remainder of office space at 2 Soho Place to Apollo. These new leases were agreed 6.5% [email protected] ahead of June 2019 ERVs, which represents good but slightly lower outperformance versus the half year ERV beat of +7.5%. Total lettings in the year-to-date stand at £33.5m, ahead

of ERV by an average of 7%. The EPRA vacancy rate remains immaterial at 0.6% from 1.6% at H1-19.

On the developments front, 70% of the 790,000 sq.ft of space is now pre-let, with the two largest buildings effectively de-risked as 92% is now pre-let at Charlotte Street and 76% pre-let at Soho Place. Capital expenditure on developments in the first nine months of the year amounted to £155.7m, in line on a proportional basis with our FY19 forecasts. DLN has disposed of £181.7m of assets (premium of 6.2% to December 2018 book values) with limited value add potential in the year-to-date with funds being recycled into the development programme.

The loan-to-value ratio edged down further to 16.4% based on June 2019 valuations (17.6% at H1-19) as disposals reduced net debt. Recently, DLN became the first UK REIT to secure a “green” credit facility following the agreement last week of the £450m RCF.

Overall, the update conforms to expectations, as DLN sits patiently awaiting the opportunity to deploy its £560m of capacity. We remain negative on London offices as uncertainty still prevails, but a favourable Brexit outcome would support upgrades to our view.

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FBD Holdings RSA records lower claims costs yoy in Q3

RSA, a major competitor of FBD in the Irish market, has published a Q3 trading update. The Recommendation: Buy statement provides some key data at group level, but we want to just pick up on a few Closing Price: €8.82 comments that will have some readthrough for Ireland. Firstly, RSA notes that the attritional loss ratio improved overall and in each region. It also notes that the large loss ratio Eamonn Hughes +353-1-641 9442 improved in every region. Elsewhere, it notes that weather costs were better than the prior [email protected] year in the UK & International division (which includes Ireland).

Its clearly hard to be definitive on this with the limited information, but RSA appears to be seeing similar improving trends in Ireland in Q3, as was the case in H1 when the Combined Operating Ratio improved by 400bps yoy to 83.3%.

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Economic View UK Housing Monitor – London adjusting, South and SE look vulnerable

Despite the ongoing negative newsflow around the London housing market, our latest UK Alexander Wilson Housing Monitor points to a market that is quickly adjusting, while downside risks in the +353-1-641 9225 [email protected] South and South East markets appear to have risen. These are some of the conclusions of our SiteWorks data analytics work, deep dive analysis of over 50,000 new property listings. The analysis looks at the stock of new properties, the additions to this stock, time to sell and the ratio of price increases to decreases.

The key takeaways from the Q3 report are: 1) There has not been a significant change in the

market at a national level; but 2) Regional variations have been significant, with the stock of This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates new homes listings falling (-25% yoy) in London thanks to falling new additions (-24% yoy) while the SE and East have added to their already high stock levels (+28% yoy and +35% yoy, respectively); 3) Given that London, the East and SE all have high unsold new stock relative to other regions, adding to this stock presents downward pressures on prices in the South and SE.

While the London property market has been weak in recent periods, the aggressive cut to new dwelling supply should ease the downward price pressures in the market. To the contrary, the ramp up in new listings in the South and SE leaves these regions vulnerable.

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Issuer & Analyst Disclosures

Analyst Certification The named Research Analyst certifies that: (1) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers. (2) No part of my remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report.

Regulatory Information Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. This publication has been approved by Goodbody. The information has been taken from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute best judgement at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information, tools and material presented in this document are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities.

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Goodbody has provided investment banking services to AIB Group, Applegreen, ARYZTA, Cairn Homes, Datalex, Draper Esprit, FBD Holdings, First Derivatives, Flutter Entertainment, Grafton Group, , Hibernia REIT, ICG, IFG Group, Kingspan, Origin Enterprises, , Rank Group, Total Produce, UDG Healthcare, and Yew Grove REIT in the past 12 months.

Goodbody Stockbrokers acts as corporate broker to AIB Group, Applegreen, ARYZTA, Cairn Homes, Datalex, Draper Esprit, FBD Holdings, First Derivatives, Flutter Entertainment, Grafton Group, Greencore, Hibernia REIT, ICG, IPL Plastics, Kingspan, Origin Enterprises, Playtech, Rank Group, and Yew Grove REIT The list of companies for which Goodbody acts as market maker and on which it provides research, is available at Regulatory Disclosures

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