University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Marketing Papers Wharton Faculty Research November 1984 Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research J. Scott Armstrong University of Pennsylvania,
[email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers Recommended Citation Armstrong, J. S. (1984). Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research. Retrieved from https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/77 Postprint version. Published in Interfaces, Volume 14, Issue 6, November 1984, pages 52-66. Publisher URL: http://www.aaai.org/AITopics/html/interfaces.html The author asserts his right to include this material in ScholarlyCommons@Penn. This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/77 For more information, please contact
[email protected]. Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research Abstract Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended. Comments Postprint version. Published in Interfaces, Volume 14, Issue 6, November 1984, pages 52-66. Publisher URL: http://www.aaai.org/AITopics/html/interfaces.html The author asserts his right to include this material in ScholarlyCommons@Penn. This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/77 Published in Interfaces, 14 (Nov.-Dec. 1984), 52-66, with commentaries and reply. Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research J. Scott Armstrong Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting.