Overview of TAG Population Viability Analyses (PVAs)

Lisa Faust, Ph.D

Sarah Long, M.S., Joe Simonis, Ph.D., Brent Johnson, MS., Lauren Mechak, Adrienne Savrin (LPZ), Candice Dorsey, Ph.D. (AZA) Outline

• Overview of PVAs • Summary of Preliminary Caprinae PVA Results • Individual Preliminary Results PVA Project Overview • Institute of Museum and Library Services grant from Dec 2011 – Dec 2016

• Team: Lisa Faust, Ph.D., Sarah Long, M.S., Josie Simonis, Ph.D., Brent Johnson, MS., Lauren Mechak, Adrienne Savrin (LPZ), Candice Dorsey, Ph.D. (AZA)

• Met with Caprinae Program Leaders, Studbook Keepers and TAG Chairs in early 2015.

• All PVAs are in progress… What is a Population Viability Analysis (PVA)?

• Quantitative, single-species population model • Based on demographic, genetic history, zoo management • Population model predicts: – Likely future status • Probability of extinction • Population size • Genetic health – Key factors impacting population – Needed actions to improve sustainability How will PVAs benefit your AZA Program/TAG?

• Assess long-term sustainability of each AZA Animal Program

• Provide scientific support for most critical actions to increase viability

• Provide context for TAG decision-making –Selection of species/programs –Research/husbandry needs –Best management actions PVA Model Approach • Baseline Scenario: Estimate current sustainability if no changes are made

• Alternate Scenarios: Explore changes in: –species biology (reproduction, infant mortality, etc.) –management strategies (imports, exports, space limitations, etc.) PVAs vs. BTPs

Population Viability Analyses Breeding and Transfer Plans LPZoo’s Alexander Center for AZA’s Population Applied Population Biology Management Center

•Long-term action plans •Short-term, annual goals •Population-based •Individual-based •Overall population analysis •Specific breeding/transfer and assessment of recommendations management strategies •SSP by SSP •TAG by TAG Overview of Caprinae PVAs

STRENGTHS CHALLENGES

• High breeding rates • Space restrictions • Can be held in large social • Frequent exports to groups non-AZA institutions • One small population (goral), the rest • Small founder base moderately sized • 6/7 species are listed as • Management balances “Vulnerable” in the wild breeding with exports (helps model results look good) Preliminary PVA Results Historical Projected Size Size

Potential Space

Breeding rate low because eggs have been pulled to prevent overcrowding Chinese Goral

Breeding rates have dropped in the past five years due to lack of institutional interest and vacant Coordinator 10 year average = 6/year 5 year average = < 1/year Chinese Goral

If historical breeding rate can be consistently achieved, the population could grow

Breeding rate low because eggs have been pulled to prevent overcrowding Nubian Ibex

By continuing to balance births and exports, the population could stabilize Sichuan

By continuing to balance births and exports, the population could stabilize Trans Caspian Urial

By continuing to balance births and exports, the population could stabilize Turkmenian Markhor By continuing to balance births and exports, the population could stabilize Turmenian Markhor

However, by increasing to fill space, the population could stabilize at a larger size with more limited exportation Desert Bighorn Sheep

Under the average breeding rate from the past 10 years, the population is projected to decline, but only managed collectively since 2011 Desert Bighorn Sheep

However, increasing breeding and space could improve the population’s demographic and genetic outlook Preliminary Genetic Results

Current Projected GD Species % GD Loss GD in 100 Years Chinese Goral 77% 63% 15% Nubian Ibex 60% 56% (without imports) 4% Sichuan Takin 82% 77% 5% Trans Caspian 49% ** 38% ** 11% Urial Turmenian 76% (current space) 82% 4-6% Markhor 78% (balance births + exports) Desert Bighorn 55% (declining pop) 86% 6-31% Sheep 80% (more births more space)

**note stats are calculated differently from most recent Breeding and Transfer Plan Summary Caprinae Results

Demographically Stable at Current Breeding Rates • Chinese goral • Nubian Ibex • Sichuan Takin • Trans Caspian Urial • Turkmenian Markhor

Demographically Stable with Increased Breeding Rates • Desert Big Horned Sheep

Genetic Challenges (?) Next Steps • PVA Team drafting reports  Program Leaders for editing • Upcoming meeting for Kordofan Aoudad • After individual species are finalized, TAG report Acknowledgements

• Jeff Holland, Caprinae TAG Chair • David Powell, Caprinae TAG Co-Chair • David Bernier, Sichuan Takin Animal Program Leader and Studbook Keeper • Thomas LaBarge, Turkmenian Markhor Animal Program Leader and Studbook Keeper • Maureen McCarty, Desert Bighorn Sheep Animal Program Leader and Studbook Keeper • Alison Mott, Nubian Ibex Animal Program Leader and Studbook Keeper • Gilbert Myers, Chinese Goral Animal Program Leader and Studbook Keeper • Daphne Revie, Trans Caspian Urial Animal Program Leader and Studbook Keeper • Institute of Museum and Library Services • Lincoln Park Zoo Questions?Questions?