ACNIS Monthly Newsletter No.3, June 2011

ACNIS Monthly Newsletter No. 3 June 2011

ACNIS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER No.3 June 2011

The Armenian Center for National and International Studies

ACNIS MONTHLY NEWSLETTER one billion drams, or less than one percent of the In the past year, the Armenian Center for National country’s entire GDP, to the domain of science. And and International Studies (ACNIS) launched the under such circumstances there cannot be a knowl- publication of a regular series of monthly news- edge-based economy,” Manasserian argued. letters. This is the next issue of our new “ACNIS Monthly Newsletter,” a publication that provides a brief summary of our work, activities and projects for the month of June 2011. ACNIS PROJECTS & ACTIVITIES

Center Considers Armenia’s Economic Situation This notwithstanding, Tatoul Manasserian stressed that the way out of this predicament lies specifically in improving the Armenian legislation which regulates this domain, conducting flexible tax and customs policies, and carrying out several other measures toward an effective economic man- agement. The presentation was followed by a series of questions and answers, and featured a lively exchange with the audience.

On June 10, ACNIS held a roundtable discussion to Foreign Diplomats’ Collaboration analyze the contemporary trends of, challenges fac- With ACNIS ing, and prospects for the development of Armenia’s economy. The meeting brought together representa- The Center’s work schedule for the first month tives from international organizations and the diplo- of Summer 2011 was fairly eventful in terms of matic community in Yerevan, leading analysts, policy meetings, and exchanging views on a variety of specialists, and members of the press. Center Administrative Director Karapet Kalenchian issues, with high level representatives from the welcomed the audience with opening remarks. diplomatic community in Yerevan. In his thorough presentation, the day’s speaker, On the invitation of British Ambassador Charles leading economist Dr. Tatoul Manasserian, described Lonsdale, ACNIS Director of Research Manvel Armenia’s current sad economic state and also offered Sargsian attended, on June 8, a festivity to mark his vision for the avenues toward improving this situ- the official birthday of Her Majesty Queen Eliz- ation, underscoring that to date Armenia has not de- abeth II. On the evening of the same day, Am- veloped a strategy for economic growth. “Suffice it to bassador Lonsdale received at his residence and say that Armenia’s state budget has allocated a mere conferred with numerous leading political →

← scientists and ana- And upon the Profes- lysts, including Sarg- sor’s request, ACNIS sian. Director of Research Two days later, on spoke about the do- June 10, the British mestic political state ambassador hosted the of affairs in Armenia, Center’s Director of specifically since the Research yet again and conversed with him during presidential elections in a banquet in honor of Laurie Bristow, Director for 2008. Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the British For- eign and Commonwealth Office. Separately, Interview For PhD on June 15, Research Paper German Am- bassador Hans- On June 21, Jochen Schmidt Center Director paid a visit to of Research and ACNIS and met political scientist with Center Di- Manvel Sargsian rector of Research Manvel Sargsian. During this gave an in depth meeting they discussed a wide range of regional interview to Ari- issues. anne Caoili, the Philippine-born Cognitive Visits to ACNIS leading Austra- On June 22, Center lian chess player staff hosted Professor who achieved the Gregory Aftandilian of FIDE Woman In- the Northeastern Uni- ternational Master versity in Boston and title. Miss Caoili, a group of students however, did not from this institution of visit ACNIS because of chess-related matters, higher education. The but to enrich—with yet another renowned expert guests had paid a visit viewpoint—her PhD dissertation on Armenian- to ACNIS for cognitive purposes, and during the Russian economic and political ties. meeting Center Director of Research Manvel Sarg- Aside from playing chess, Arianne Caoili also sian briefly introduced the think tank’s mission studies at the Australian National University and and underscored its important role in forming pub- the European Business School and has a back- lic opinion. ACNIS analysts Edgar Vardanian and ground in Economics, Finance, and International Saro Saroyan also addressed the visiting university Relations. Her main fields of interest lie in Rus- students. sian geopolitics, Armenian economic develop- Following this meeting, the guests were received ment and diaspora relations, and political econo- by Center founder Raffi K. Hovannisian who like- my of the Middle East. wise conferred with them and answered their in- All through her visit to Armenia for the next quiries. one month, Miss Caoili will have meetings and On the next day, Manvel Sargsian hosted and conduct interviews with the country’s several of- conversed with Professor Graeme Robertson of the ficials and policy specialists. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The To note, Arianne Caoili is also the intimate of interlocutors examined Professor Robertson’s new Armenian chess Grandmaster Levon Aronian, research paper on key global changes in the post- with whom Caoili had met during a chess olym- Cold War period. piad.

ACNIS Examines the Post-Kazan MEDIA OUTREACH Situation Concerning Karabagh

On June 30, the Center convened a policy roundtable to look at the current state of affairs with respect to Mountainous Karabagh (Artsakh) following the On June 3, recent meeting held in Kazan, Russian Federation, ACNIS Director among the presidents of Russia, Armenia, and Azer- of Research Man- baijan. The seminar discussion brought together rep- vel Sargsian gave resentatives from international organizations and the an interview to Armenia Today news agency and diplomatic community in Yerevan, leading analysts, spoke about the likely developments in connec- policy specialists, and members of the press. tion with the Armenian and Azerbaijani presi- ACNIS analyst Saro Saroyan welcomed the audi- dents’ meeting in Kazan, Russia, on June 24 upon ence with opening remarks. the initiative of the president of the Russian Fed- In his intervention, Center Director of Research eration. He stated that Azerbaijan’s “policy of Manvel Sargsian reflected on the post-Kazan - reac blackmail, which it has conducted for numerous tions by the OSCE Minsk Group’s co-chairing coun- years, now has begun to work against Azerbai- tries and, accordingly, he did not rule out the possibil- jan itself.” Consequently, Sargsian did not rule ity of change either in the format of the Minsk Group, out the possibility of applying pressure on that or in the concept for resolving the Artsakh issue. “I country and this, in the analyst’s view, can play a will not be surprised if the Minsk Group is dissolved part in Kazan and compel the Azerbaijani leader- and the peace process is transferred to the domain of ship to sign an agreement on excluding the use or European integration. I believe time will soon show threat of force. that the circumstances are changing, a new phase is starting, and this could mean Artsakh’s participa- tion as a separate party to the conflict,” Sargsian re- marked. In his turn, Regional Studies Center (RSC) Di- rector Richard Giragosian explored the question of On June 21, Center Director of Research whether a war is imminent with regard to Karabagh Manvel Sargsian had an interview with Capi- and against the background of the developments be- tal daily and analyzed the enlargement of the fore, during, and after the trilateral meeting in Kazan. European Union’s role in the Karabagh peace “By constantly threatening with war and demanding talks format, its assistance toward achieving an everything at once, Azerbaijan has put itself in the agreement, and the trilateral meeting in Kazan. corner and now looks for a suitable excuse to come Sargsian noted that the current document on the out from that trap which it has created and to give up resolution of the Artsakh issue receives a con- Karabagh ‘with dignity,’” the analyst maintained. flicting reaction from Armenia and Azerbaijan, The presentations were followed by a series of therefore “under such conditions it is incompre- questions and answers, and featured a lively exchange hensible as to what important changes we can with the audience. The roundtable participants also expect from Kazan.” According to the political included British Ambassador Charles Lonsdale; Ger- scientist, if the sides do not reach an accord, the man Ambassador Hans-Jochen Schmidt; political actual concept could change, that is to say, whol- scientist Levon Urumyan; Naira Sultanyan from the ly new ideas and precepts could be set as bases British Embassy; and several others. for settling the conflict.

Armenian Na- tional Congress (ANC) opposition force and the country’s On June 16, ACNIS analyst Saro Saroyan was a u t h o r i t i e s . hosted by the “Azdarar” news program on AR Vardanian ex- television during which he examined Armenia’s amined in theo- energy security matter, and in particular looked at ry and in reality, with the Armenian example, the op- the long-term Iran-Armenia oil pipeline project and position-government correlations in non-democratic the prospect for its operation. Saroyan stated that countries. the uncertainty of this undertaking is conditioned As per Center analyst, in such countries the halls on the political and economic competition among of power consent to holding talks with the opposi- the countries which pursue interests in the region. tion solely after accepting their own defeat. But in Above all, the analyst reflected on the function of the case of Armenia, as maintained by Vardanian, the Russian factor in bringing this pipeline venture the ANC has not created that condition which would to fruition. force the authorities to sit at the negotiations table, and as a result the powers that be refuse to hold dis- Center analyst Saro cussions on conducting pre-term elections. “There is Saroyan’s article series little value in the frequently expressed views which entitled “Handing Over suggest that the opposition can remove the authori- of Liberated Lands and ties from power by introducing facts. No piece of Treason,” which was evidence can convince the undemocratic establish- published by several ment to resign from power,” the analyst maintained. electronic media, wide- ly resonated among the MORE ABOUT US body politic all through the month of June. In his analysis, Saroyan ex- The Armenian Center for plored the question of whether the assumed surren- National and International dering of liberated territories collides with state and Studies (ACNIS) is a lead- national interests and such action can be regarded ing independent strategic as treason. To note, this issue was highly debated research center located in in Armenia prior to the Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Yerevan, Armenia. As an independent, objective in- Russian presidents’ meeting in Kazan. In his ana- stitution committed to conducting professional poli- lytical study, Saroyan underscored the need to re- cy research and analysis, ACNIS strives to raise the move this matter from the emotional domain and level of public debate and seeks to broaden public to examine it rationally, also looking at the secu- engagement in the public policy process, as well as rity considerations of Armenia and Karabagh. The fostering greater and more inclusive public knowl- analyst concluded that complete or partial return of edge. Founded in 1994, ACNIS is the institutional liberated lands is not only treason, but such move initiative of Raffi K. Hovannisian, Armenia’s first could threaten national security. Minister of Foreign Affairs. Over the past seventeen years, ACNIS has acquired a prominent reputation On June 10, as a primary source of professional independent re- ACNIS analyst search and analysis covering a wide range of policy Edgar Vardani- issues. an was the guest of “Realpoli- For more information on ACNIS, our work and ac- tik” program of 1in.am news agency, and he com- tivities, please contact us at: [email protected] or visit prehensively appraised the discourse between the our website at: www.acnis.am.