ROY A. CMLDS, JR. "Landslide. Yes, land- slide—stunning, startling, astound- ing, beyond the wildest dreams and nightmares of the contending camps, beyond the furthest ken of the armies of pollsters, pundits, and political pro- fessionals," gushed Time magazine. "Af- ter all the thousands of miles, the millions of words and dollars, the campaign that in newspapers across the land on the very morning of Election Day was still head- lined TOO CLOSE TO CALL turned out to be a land- slide." Not all the me- dia reports were as breathless as Time's, nor as Pollyanna-ish as Time's resident pontificator, Hugh Sidey, who chirped "We Are Off on a Special Adventure." But they were com- parable. "Reagan Era Begins, New THE LANDSLIDE BEFORE

12 THE LICENSEDSTOR TO UNZ.ORG M THE LIBERTARIAN REVIEW ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED

Committee; Warren If Ronald Reagan's landslide victory was a Magnuson (D- mandate, was the mandate for traditional Wash.), the big- spending chairman conservatism, the Moral Majority, or some of the powerful Ap- propriations panel; new shade of the political spectrum? etc." [November 15, 1980] Deal Era Ebbs," trumpeted the Christian Democratic socialist John Judis, writing Science Monitor. The national conservative in the independent socialist weekly, In weekly Human Events seemed to agree: These Times, summed it up: "It's 'No' to "Victory at Last!—How Sweet it Is," it ex- Liberalism by a Landslide." And the liberals ulted. Newsweek merely headlined, "The seemed to have got the point: "What hap- Republican Landslide." pened in the 1980 election reflected a pro- And a landslide it looked to be. Reagan found and general turn to conservatism in beat Carter by more than eight million this country," Anthony Lewis wrote in a votes—43,201,220 to 34,913,222—swept column called "The Tidal Wave." (The away the incumbent's support in 44 of the New York Times, November 6) And, com- 50 states, and swamped Carter in electoral menting on the lame-duck session of Con- votes—483 to a mere 49. The percentage gress, a liberal House Democratic leader points looked equally decisive. Fifty-one said woefully, "It's the last drink before percent for Reagan to Carter's 41 percent. Prohibition." (The New York Times, No- The Republicans gained an impressive 33 vember 11) seats in the House. Even the incredible Almost before the votes were cast, key happened; for the first time since 1952 the figures of the New Right and Moral Major- Republicans grabbed control in the Senate, ity who claimed to have worked long and throwing 12 Democrats into the streets. hard to elect Reagan had begun issuing The voters brutally punished prominent threats to the incoming Administration. liberals and Democrats, defeating even The morning after the election, New Right George McGovern, the very symbol of lib- kingpin Richard Viguerie, Paul Weyrich, eralism, who took a dive by an astounding head of the Committee for the Survival of a 20 percent. Free [sic] Congress, and Moral Majority Human Events, ever gracious in victory, leader Jerry Falwell launched attacks on gloated: "All those big-name liberals who Bush and other moderates surrounding had so bedeviled conservatives over the Reagan, taking credit for Reagan's victory to years were gone. Frank Church (D-Idaho), themselves and promising to make life dif- the extremely dovish chairman of the ficult for him if he didn't appoint conserva- Foreign Relations panel; George McGov- tive hardliners to top Administration posts. ern (D-S.D.), the dyed-in-the-wool radical, The evening after the election, Weyrich and who always seemed to be singing hosan- Falwell appeared on ABC's late night news, nahs to some Communist or leftist dictator; gloating about their victory and sassing de- John Culver (D-Iowa), the ex-Marine feated Senators Church, Bayh, and Mc- turned unilateral disarmer; Birch Bayh Govern, who feebly attempted through a (D-Ind.), the pro-ERA, pro-busing, and television hook-up to fend off their attacks anti-military power on the Judiciary and In- and their threats to the few remaining lib- telligence panels; Gaylord Nelson (D-Wis.), erals in Congress. Terry Dolan, head of the the anti-business member of the Finance National Conservative Political Action 13 LICENSED TO UNZ.ORG ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED JANUARY 1981

Committee, released a list of target Senators and Con- Why Reagan won gressmen for 1982, including not only obvious political enemies like Senators Edward Kennedy and Daniel Patrick Reagan's mandate has been most loudly claimed by the Moynihan, but hawks like Senator Henry Jackson, as well. "Reaganites," as James Q. Wilson called them in Commen- And when Ronald Reagan began choosing moderate Ford tary, employing a long familiar word in a special limited and Nixon-type conservatives for key transition positions, sense, to designate the members of a broad social and politi- the New Right panicked and began to howl. "New Right cal movement which wants the government off our backs in Angered by Reagan Choices," thundered one headline, economic matters, which is driven into a rage by "permis- while Human Events worried publicly over the old-guard siveness" and by what it regards as increased "immorality" nature of top figures in the transition team. They were in American society, and which wants a hawkish, interven- bothered, too, by the bluntness with which George Bush tionist, "get-tough" foreign policy. At the core of this move- took them on, after their brash attempt to intimidate him. ment stands the New Right, an aggressive group which had At a news conference on November 10, Bush said that con- a significant impact on the 1980 election. servative religious groups would not over-influence Ronald In his essay on "Reagan and the Republican Revival," Wil- Reagan when he took over the White House, and snapped: son put it this way: "the Reagan candidacy is a candidacy "I take violent exception to certain individuals in some of based on issues, issues which the candidate has developed those groups, some of their positions, and have stated it pub- over the better part of two decades and which now, taken as licly and am not intimidated by those who suggest I better a whole, command the assent of a very large proportion of hew the line. To hell with them." In the offices of Richard the American people...." (Commentary, October 1980) Viguerie and Associates, the National Conservative Political Wilson spelled out the beliefs of this new movement thus: Action Caucus, and Moral Majority, there was audible Reaganism stands in opposition to those who believe in the un- gnashing of teeth. restrained right of personal self-expression and the need for gov- Meanwhile, some very worried people on the left were ernment to rationalize all other aspects of human affairs by rule and sweating out Ronald Reagan's ascension to power. Writing procedure. Reaganism opposes those who would legalize in the leftwing San Francisco Bay Guardian, sixties veteran marijuana, abortions, and pornography and tolerate or encourage Alan Kay mused: draft resistance, all in the name of personal freedom, and who would support court-ordered school busing, bans on gun own- It's scary, this visceral sense that we can't trust the world. It hit me ership, affirmative action, and racial quotas, all in the name of ra- with much the same impact as did that first assassin's bullet, a long tionalizing and perfecting society. 17 years ago. And it seems to me I recognized echoes of this same Or, as Richard Viguerie put it in an interview with The New anguish in the heavy, empty faces and darting eyes I saw on 24th York Times, the establishment Right "began to reach out Street, on Telegraph, on Columbus, and on Cortlandt last week. and strike an alliance with social conservatives" and the People—at least the ones I've been able to check in with—have been a little crazy. Maybe I have also. "whole movement began to come alive." How could America have done it? [November 13] And the Reaganites have succeeded in persuading some interpreters that their values do lie behind the Reagan man- "How could America have done it?"—the anguished cry date. David Broder, for example, wrote in the Washington swelled into panic, as the left took to the streets in Berkeley, Post of "two different agendas for the new administration." in a symbolic, nostalgic gesture. As Broder conceived it, "the economic mandate is to reduce Barely an hour after Jimmy Carter's concession speech, several government spending, taxation and regulation and give thousand Berkeley residents were marching in the streets to protest people more room to seek their own goals. The social man- Reagan's election, in what turned out to be the kickoff of a 24-hour date is to expand government's efforts to prescribe and regu- spree of anti-Reagan protests. By 7:30 Wednesday evening, 54 late individual behavior." people, many of them UC Berkeley students, had been arrested.... Yet in fact, the contradiction here—between relaxing gov- 3500 people marched through the streets of Berkeley, led for much ernment control in one area and simultaneously expanding of the way by a man carrying a poster of Ronald Reagan and state power in two others (foreign policy and personal free- George Bush with the words "The End is Near" inscribed on it. dom)—is what ultimately will wreck the Reagan mandate, [Bay Guardian, November 13] and leave it in ruins. What can we make of an election whose results have Consider the facts about Reagan's election. Reagan panicked both the New Right and the remnants of the New reached his peak shortly after the Republican convention in Left, both the Moral Majority and the Permissive Minority? Detroit, and then began to fade. Carter went on the attack What did the election symbolize? These are the questions while Reagan became defensive. And Carter's most effective people have been asking, the questions the pundits have thrusts were at Reagan's social views and his foreign policy. tried to answer with a sea of ink which, if released all at Reagan spent the better part of the crucially important final once, would have flooded every state Reagan carried (to weeks reassuring the American people that in fact he was borrow a rhetorical device from the President-elect himself). not a warmonger. In the end, he succeeded, and Carter's What was Reagan's mandate a mandate for? Was it a break- support collapsed. That is what is important about Reagan's through election of the stature of Roosevelt's victory in win: it was a referendum on Carter's economic policies. 1932? More important, what impact will it have on the Period. political spectrum as a whole, on the Left and the Right? All polls, especially those conducted immediately after the These are the questions which need to be addressed. And election, show that the vote represented a rejection of Car- they need to be addressed because there is a time bomb tick- ter's economic policies, and little else. The Los Angeles ing, not only in the Reagan Administration, but in the whole Times poll of November 20 found that "two thirds of the conservative movement: the coming of age of the members voters, when asked which 'two or three' issues played 'the of the baby boom generation, and their increased participa- most important' role in influencing their decision, named tion in American politics. the economy. No other issue came close." 14 LICENSED TO UNZ.ORG THE LIBERTARIAN REVIEW ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED

State and Local Races: Mostly Runs and Hits Voters in 36 states this year had the opportunity to choose Libertar- the western half of the country than in the east. In three-way races ian candidates other than Ed Clark and David Koch for federal, in California, Hawaii, Arizona, and Nevada—all states where Lib- state, or local offices, and the results of their selections show a gen- ertarians have established a political presence in the past—'Liber- eral upward trend for the Libertarian Party. tarian candidates had consistently respectable percentages of 3 to 6 The high points include the Alaska races, where two Libertarians percent with several even higher, notably the 8 percent showings of were elected to the state legislature; three U.S. Senate races, in Bill Evers and Dan Mahaffey in California congressional contests. which Libertarians represented the "balance of power" in close Of the four highest showings in three-way races nationally (out- contests; and races for other offices scattered around the country side of Alaska), three were in the west: Roberta Rinehart with 17 where Libertarians earned surprisingly high vote totals. percent of the vote in a California Assembly race, Buck Crouch Apart from these partisan races, it's encouraging to note the elec- with 19 percent in an Arizona State Senate race; and Mary Harris tion of Mary K. Shell, a registered Libertarian, to the non-partisan with 14 percent in the contest for Clark County (Las Vegas, office of Mayor of Bakersfield, California. Shell's political affilia- Nevada) Public Administrator. The other particularly high result tion was generally known and to some extent discussed during the was Ben Olson's 14 percent in a three-way contest for state represen- campaign. tative in rural Iowa. Alaska The most outstanding results gained by Libertarians in two-way Dick Randolph of Fairbanks won re-election for a second con- races were Vivian Baures's 32 percent for Treasurer of Jackson secutive term in the lower house of the state legislature, and will be County, Oregon, and the 42 percent racked up by Michael Tanchek joined by Libertarian Ken Fanning, elected to his first two-year for a state representative seat in Montana against an incumbent term from the same district. Democrat. Fairbanks voters choose six winners to represent them in Juneau; Eastern results for Libertarians were uniformly lower, reflecting in a field of 18 candidates—six from each party—Randolph and both a relative unfamiliarity with the Libertarian Party and a more Fanning finished first and fourth, respectively. Randolph's vote consistent loyalty to the two party system on the part of eastern total of over 10,000 stands as the highest ever cast for a State Repre- voters. sentative in Alaska history, and represents a substantial improve- The Bottom Line______ment over his sixth place, (5,500 vote) showing in 1978. Other races in "Alaska produced results for Libertarians which, Looking at the national picture, two notable, measurable Liber- while not victorious, were matched by few Libertarians in the tarian achievements stand out: First, the fact that, nationwide, as "lower 48." many as 500 Libertarian candidates did run; and second, the fact Balance of Power______that the joint efforts of the Clark campaign and local Libertarian candidates earned future ballot status for the Party in 13 states. The U. S. Senate races in Arizona, Idaho, and North Carolina The Libertarian Party now has ballot status for 1982 in were decided in each instance by fewer votes than the total won by Alabama, California, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mon- the Libertarian candidate. In Arizona, Barry Goldwater squeaked tana, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, and Wisconsin, plus 1984 out a victory of less than 8,000 votes while Libertarian Fred Esser Presidential ballot status in Alaska and New Mexico. Ballot access won 12,000; in Idaho, Larry Fullmer's total of 6,700 was half again is particularly burdensome and expensive in California, Michigan, the size of the margin between winning Republican Steve Symms Montana, Oregon, and Wisconsin, and the total savings on future and losing Democrat Frank Church; and Libertarian Rick Pasotto ballot drive efforts in these thirteen states come to well over in North Carolina won more than 7,500 votes, while Republican $100,000. John East upset incumbent Robert Morgan by only 7,000. No doubt many individual Libertarian candidates and their sup- High percentages for Libertarians in U.S. Senate races were porters were disappointed with the results, but the overall trend is gained by Bud Shasteen in Hawaii and Tonie Nathan in Oregon, definitely up for the Libertarian Party. The total number of candi- both with 4 percent of the vote; and Allan Hacker in Nevada, with dates in 1980 was two-and-a-half times that of 1978. The typical 3 percent. Libertarian National Chairman David Bergland won voting percentage increased from the 1 to 3 percent range to the 3 to just over 2 percent in his Senate race in California. 6 percent range. The 1980 Alaska results proved that Dick Ran- Of the relatively few statewide races other than U. S. Senate con- dolph's 1978 victory was no fluke, but rather that he has expanded tested by Libertarians, those in Oregon were remarkable for the and strengthened the Libertarian constituency in that state. Liber- consistent level of 4 to 5 percent achieved by Libertarian candidates tarians made their first-ever electoral efforts in many states and despite tiny campaign budgets. And in Texas, David Hutzelmann, cities, and the Party can expect to improve on their results in future running for Railroad Commission (the top office on the Texas bal- elections. lot this year and one which regulates all state utilities), took nearly As a general trend, Ed Clark's vote for President ran ahead of 90,000 votes, a showing which strongly indicates future Libertar- Libertarian percentages for what were perceived as important ian success in that state. statewide offices (U.S. Senate, Governor), and ran behind Liberta- Overall, the "balance of power" position became more common rian percentages for Congress, state legislature, and minor for Libertarian candidates at every level. Several of them achieved statewide office. This trend probably indicates a positive attitude this status in the California congressional and legislative races, and toward Clark and Libertarians roughly described as follows: "I like the phenomenon appeared in several other states as well. Clark, but not enough to vote Libertarian for President, so I'll show Reaching this position has been a conscious interim goal of Lib- my approval by voting Libertarian in a less important race." ertarian strategists, but without any intent to "get" one or the other Thanks to the 500 Libertarian candidates who were willing to run of the major parties. No analysis is yet available to show whether in 1980, an estimated three percent of all voters nationally did in Libertarians in "balance of power" races drew more heavily from fact cast at least one vote for a Libertarian candidate. Republicans or from Democrats, and from the Libertarian point of This means that over two million voters—more than double the view, such an analysis would be no more than a matter of passing 1978 figure—were willing to break lifelong loyalties to the two interest. The objective for now is for the Libertarian Party to be- party system and give at least a qualified endorsement to Libertar- come a measurably strong, politically independent factor in the ians. Should this trend continue, it will auger well for the long-term elections of each state and district. Western Bias______prospects of the Libertarian Party in the 1980's and '90's. Not surprisingly, Libertarians neared this goal far more often in —Chris Hocker 15 LICENSED TO UNZ.ORG ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED JANUARY 1981

The New York TimeslCBS poll of November 8 found that handily won the election. Consider the dramatic effective- fully 38 percent of those who voted for Ronald Reagan ness of his final appeal to the viewers of that debate, an ap- "were motivated more by dissatisfaction with President Car- peal, directed not to their fears, but to their hopes: ter than by serious ideological commitment to Mr. Reagan's Next Tuesday is Election Day. Next Tuesday all of you will go to the views." That amounts to nearly 16.5 million votes—twice polls. You'll stand there in the polling place and make a decision. 1 the number by which Reagan trounced Carter. By contrast, think when you make that decision it might be well if you would only 11 percent of those voting for Reagan did so because ask yourself: Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it "he's a real conservative" — which amounts to 4,750,000 easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four votes. years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than Moreover, according to the Times, the voters in this there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is safe? That we're as "throw the rascals out" category "tended to decide their strong as we were four years ago?.... choice later in the campaign and to be considerably younger This country doesn't have to be in the shape that it's in. We do not than other Reagan voters. They were also less likely to call have to go on sharing in scarcity, with the country getting worse off, themselves conservatives, more likely to name inflation as with unemployment growing.... All of this can be cured. And all of the major issue in the election, and less likely to oppose the it can be solved.... proposed Federal Equal Rights Amendment." I would like to have a crusade today. And I would like to lead that Two. days before the election, Washington Post reporter crusade with your help. And it would be one to take government off Haynes Johnson interviewed some of these younger voters the backs of the great people of this country and turn you loose on a Boston college campus. "Three things are most striking again to do those things that I know you can do so well, because you about the conversations with young voters here," Haynes did them and made this country great. wrote, Consider the effectiveness of these words and their impact their great concerns over the possibility of war, their general unease on undecided voters, particularly younger voters. And con- about the state of the economy and what kind of life they will have sider another anecdote, told by a reporter on national televi- in it, and their way of wrestling out which of those concerns trouble sion the evening of the election from Reagan's victory cele- them most and affects how they will vote. bration at the Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles. The re- By the time you reach here, after nearly two months of traveling porter noticed a young, enthusiastic Reagan supporter.... in every section of the country, it's clear that the apprehensions smoking marijuana. He walked over to her, and said, "Don't about war have become an overriding concern among Americans. you know Reagan's against all that?" and she responded: Reagan's candidacy has suffered because of it: The seeds of doubt "The hell with him." This, you understand, was an en- about his possible presidential actions have been planted effectively. thusiastic Reagan supporter. Hardly a member of the Moral To win, he must reassure those who are troubled by what they Majority. think, or have heard, about him. [November 2] if a pot-smoking young woman, and a college student One student who told Haynes Johnson about his concern fearful of involvement in another war felt comfortable vot- was Greg Beswick of Northeastern University. ing for Reagan, and if these were not atypical Reagan voters "The Big problem we have in our country," he says, "foreign policy aside, is, of course, inflation. Quite frankly, Carter hasn't done (remember that only eleven percent of Reagan's voters voted much to stem the tide." But that concern has been outweighed in his for him because he was a "real conservative") then what was mind by a larger one, and it is one that has become iticreasingly crit- the mandate all about? The fact is that there were only two ical in the minds of Americans who will go to the polls in two more clear messages sent in that "mandate": voters want a strong days—the question of war and peace. "One big factor," he says, "is defense, and they want government to get off their backs in —well, let's face it, for the last four years we've been at peace. And their economic affairs. They did not vote for an interven- that's a very strong consideration. Reagan kind of scares me. I don't tionist foreign policy—voters remain wary of adventurism really know how to take the man. Sometimes he says things that are and do not want to get involved in a war—and they did not quite frightening." vote for the moral or religious views of the New Right. Greg was speaking for much of the country. He was one of In a fascinating article entitled "Is This the End of an the tens of millions of people who nervously watched the Era?" in the October/November 1980 issue of Public Opin- debates that Tuesday before the election, and who made up ion, Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg argue that their minds afterwards. As he settled in to watch the debate, "[s]omething very important has happened in American Greg Beswick was inclined to vote for Carter. As he put it, politics. People have changed their minds. Something "I'm leaning towards Carter for the reasons of peace." very important might be happening now: people chang But consider what Greg had to say to Haynes Johnson ing their politics. The political tide has turned, but will the after the debate: Republicans be able to ride the realignment wave?" Greg Beswick watched and listened and recorded, all as he had The authors of this article wrote in 1970 of "the Social Issue" as a planned. When it was over, he found himself completely reversed time bomb ticking in the Democratic tent. Traditional values were from where he had begun. "I think it's going to be Reagan," he said, being eroded by those perceived to be linked to the Democratic early the next morning. "He did a number on Carter last night. He party.... was better able to explain his positions. It changed my views quite a Now, the Republicans face the danger of the flip side of the Social bit." He paused, and said: Issue. It is still true (as in 1970} that Americans approve of "tra- "As you know, the war or peace question was vital to me. Maybe ditional values." But it is also increasingly true that, Garbo-like, the things I heard about Reagan being dangerous were distorted. they warit to be left alone. The tacit toleration (for others, at least) He did not present himself as that kind of person last night." of drug use, abortion, pornography, illegitimacy, homosexuality and pre-marital-living-together, represents a tidal and liberating Reagan's style______change in American attitudes and culture. Surely these changes have engendered hostility and often repugnance, hut most Ameri- Reagan did not present himself as dangerous to most cans seem to be willing to live and let live.... other Americans, either, that fateful night. He did just what The Republican party having brought its traditional conserva- he set out to do, carried it off with considerable style, and tives to the moderate mainstream of economics and politics — a 16 LICENSED TO UNZ.ORG THE LIBERTARIAN REVIEW ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED

mainstream with deep, cool water and good fishing—can risk the sanction to their cultural propensities. They place a high priority whole catch by heading off into the shallow, rocky .swirling eddies on personal security against crime and on national security against of right-wing social issues. Emphasis on prayer-in-the-school, aggression. anti-sex education, anti-gay rights, anti-pornography, anti-E.R.A., The libertarian conservatives are quite different: they may be- anti-abortion amendments and anti-evolution is a one-way ticket to lieve fiercely in some or all of the above "family values," but they the Swamp of No Return. Among other things it should be noted are even more fierce in their belief that government is wrong to that some of those good ole boys in church on Sunday morning had legislate morality. Moral matters are for individuals to decide, their pickup trucks at the XXX-rated drive-in on Saturday night. provided they do not brutalize others. The libertarian (with more This is a message which Richard Viguerie and company consistency than the liberals) wants government out of his personal ignore at their peril. And if they do ignore it, they can't say life, and is willing to take the risks and responsibilities of such self- they weren't warned. In a column in the Washington Post, reliance. David Broder took "The Pulse of the Public," and made a Safire has caught more than a glimpse of the truth here, point very similar to the one made by Scammon and Wat- but there is more going on than he apparently realizes. There tenberg. Referring to what he sees as the "two agendas" for also is a battle going on between radical libertarians and the the new administration — the "economic mandate" to re- left, on the one hand, as to whether a socially permissive, duce government spending, taxation, and regulation, and anti-militarist, anti-interventionist political movement is the "social mandate" to prescribe and regulate individual going to stick with a decaying socialism or move toward a behavior—Broder wrote that if the Reagan people choose free market radicalism, in which laissez-faire is used as a the economic agenda, "they have a chance of success that weapon against established powers rather than as an apol- can broaden their constituency," while if they choose the so- ogy for the status quo. And there is a battle between radical cial agenda, "they will squander their energies in what is libertarians and libertarian conservatives over the issue of probably a losing cause, divide their own ranks and alienate an interventionist foreign policy. the very voters who could make them the majority party of In a way, Safire's very sidestepping of the issue of foreign the next three decades." policy is itself symbolic. For American foreign policy is As Broder argues, there is no widespread agreement another time-bomb ticking away in the conservative camp. among Americans that the social changes we have seen in The hawkish foreign policy of the Reagan right is on a colli- recent years are in fact as destructive as the Rev. Jerry Falwell sion course with reality, as well as with the "conservative and the Moral Majority make them out to be. When asked consensus" which supposedly expressed itself this year. Be- whether trends toward social permissiveness are evidence of fore the election, by a margin of 3 to 1, voters thought Rea- "moral decay" or of "greater social tolerance," Broder re- gan more likely than Carter to get the U.S. involved in ports, "the cross-section of Americans of all ages answered another war; Reagan spent the last three weeks of the cam- 'Tolerance,'" and by a margin of 3 to 2. More significantly, paign assuaging their fears. But the issue did not disappear: among those between 25 and 35 the margin was 3 to 1. by a margin of 11 to 1, voters who supported Reagan say Among members of the "baby boom" generation, in short, they want him to keep America out of another war. In this the moral views of the Moral Majority are not in favor. light, consider what Reagan represents in foreign policy, and the facts he will have to confront in the years to come. The baby boom Throughout the campaign, Reagan continually addressed the themes of American "weakness" and our "inferiority" And the baby boom is on the march. All polls show that to the Soviets. He even threatened "a new arms race" to tolerance for social diversity, for alternative lifestyles and the bring the Soviets back into line. He spoke of a "consistent, like, increases as the population gets younger, reflecting a firm foreign policy" to "make America number one" and pro- liberalization of views across the generations. The baby posed to "reassert America's preeminent role in the world." boom generation contains a full one-third of the people in Yet, as Stephen Rosenfeld of the Washington Post has this country, more than 75 million people who were born pointed out, during the historic "baby rush" from 1946 to 1964. And, if What Republicans and like-minded Democrats have won is not anything, as those in the post-baby boom generation reach simply a mandate for a new policy but the obligation to tackle anew maturity, as the older and more conservative generation dies the old defense question, "How much is enough?" Or, better, how out and is replaced by younger people in positions of power much is enough for what? and influence, general social attitudes toward different life- At a certain point—at least by the second year, when the military styles and personal habits are likely to move farther and increment starts to get very big and the Republican Party's now- farther away from the views of the New Right and Moral substantial civilian constituencies start to get very demanding— Majority. Demography is destiny. Moral Majority, RIP. Reagan will come under pressure to show that he's spending those Commenting on the Reagan landslide, George Will extra billions on the Pentagon for cause. caught the scent of this in a single sentence: Reagan's win, he And that he will be hard-pressed to do. For, like it or not, wrote, "does not mean that the meanies won." And in a sur- he is going to have to contend with the logic of an interven- prising column in The New York Times, William Safire tionist foreign policy. Consider the facts: wrote of the same phenomenon in terms of a battle shaping (1) An increasing number of nations in today's world are up in the conservative movement. Safire sidestepped the going their own way, refusing to be dominated either by the issue of foreign policy, to which we shall return shortly, and U.S. or by Moscow. As a result, the whole Reaganite view of focussed instead on a developing conflict within conser- the world—that the Soviet Union is behind every world vatism between traditionalism and libertarianism, a conflict crisis, and that Soviet dominance is on the rise—is shot which will only be accentuated now that the Right is ascend- through with myths. ing to power. In a special issue of The Defense Monitor published early The traditionalists want government to uphold society's values—to last year and devoted to "Soviet Geopolitical Momentum: bolster the family unit, to censor the pornographic, to discourage Myth or Menace," analysts of the prestigious Center for De- divorce, to encourage prayer, to curb abortion, to lend government fense Information found: 17 LICENSED TO UNZ.ORG ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED JANUARY 1981

(a) that "the percentage of Soviet-influenced countries in sult of the decline in the birthrate over the past few years. the world started at 9 percent in 1945, rose to about 14 per- Right now, to fulfill manpower requirements in the armed cent in the late 1950s, then declined in the 1960s and finally services, 1 young man in 11 must volunteer for service. rose back to about 12 percent in the late 1960s. It has re- Within a few years, that number will rise to 1 in 8. If Reagan mained at this level for the past ten years. According to this tries to increase our "conventional" forces, including troops, indicator, Soviet world influence was at its height in the that 11 may quickly be reduced to a 9 or 10 now, and to a 6 or 1950s and there has been no significant Soviet geopolitical 7 by later this decade. If Reagan brings more women into the momentum in recent years." armed services to solve this problem, he risks angering his (b) that, moreover, "nothing that has happened [since the "pro-family" constituency. And if he resorts to the draft, late 1950s] has really made up for the decline in the power of he'll touch off widespread social upheaval; the riots in Ber- the Soviet bloc ... that occurred when the Soviets lost keley and elsewhere which greeted his "mandate" in No- China," while "Soviet inability to hold the allegiance and vember will become a return of 1960s-type activism and support of important Third World countries over the long protest. term has been the major weakness of the Soviet Union in at- (5) On the other hand, if Reagan achieves his manpower tempting to expand its influence," so that "Soviet losses in goals by increasing military pay and other benefits, he will the late 1970s have just about equalled gains." launch the U.S. on a policy which will not only require (c) that "American actions have usually played no impor- higher taxes, but will also, in a complex and fascinating tant role in the emergence of conflict between the Soviet fashion, set us on a treadmill to national bankruptcy. To un- Union and its clients. On the contrary, threatening American derstand why, we must digress for a moment on the methods behavior has often helped solidify Soviet relations with af- used by the U.S. government to estimate Soviet defense fected countries..." spending—and how they have led to the present clamor for (2) The Reaganite view that Russia and its Warsaw Pact al- increased U.S. defense spending. lies are outspending the U.S. and NATO is simply not true. Arthur Cox, former CIA official and defense analyst, re- Military spending by NATO exceeded that of the Warsaw ported on the matter this way in the Washington Post: Pact every year in the 1970s. Both blocs approximately dou- In 1976, the CIA made what appeared to be an astounding dis- covery about Soviet defense outlays. News outlets throughout the bled their military spending over the last decade, reaching, country headlined the story, "CIA Doubles Estimate of Soviet De- by the end of the '70s, about $212 billion for the U.S.-NATO fense Spending." The media were poorly briefed. Nobody at CIA group versus $175 billion for the U.S.S.R.-Warsaw Pact thought the Soviets had suddenly increased their defense spending group. by 100 percent. But the impression was allowed to stand and has (3) Reagan and his advisors say they want to slash taxes, not been clarified. [August 17, 1980] increase defense spending, and balance the budget, all at the It was then that Congress accepted the myth that the same time. Realizing that high taxes cripple productivity, Soviets had doubled their defense spending in real terms and that deficit spending and the monetization of debt cause during the 1970s. "But," writes Cox, "the facts are very dif- staggering rates of inflation, Reagan has pledged to reduce ferent. At no time has the Soviet defense budget been in- taxes and bring inflation under control by balancing the creased by more than 3 percent a year." The reason for the budget. Yet already he is backing away from his promise of misunderstanding is that the CIA decided in the mid '70s to balanced budgets, and giving drastic increases in defense use a new method to calculate the dollar cost of the Soviet spending a higher priority. military: by estimating what it would cost the U.S. to dupli- Reagan wants to increase defense spending at a rate of up cate or buy the whole Soviet defense establishment. But this to 10 percent a year in real terms. Republican Senator John method is subject to considerable error. There are vast dif- Tower, incoming Armed Services Committee chairman, has ferences in the costs of U.S. and Soviet defense programs— suggested that, in real terms, the defense budget should rise especially in manpower costs. The Soviets have twice the mil- even more—from Carter's 1980 budget of $157 billion to itary personnel of the U.S., and the CIA has been estimating $294 billion by 1985. Yet, such spending will necessitate not the cost of this by multiplying the number of Soviet military only higher taxes—Reagan still has proposed no significant personnel by U.S. military pay and allowance rates. In the cutbacks in non-defense spending—but also an even higher final analysis, all the scare stories about the Soviets' having rate of inflation. Unlike simple domestic redistributions of engaged in "the most massive military buildup in history" wealth, which transfer resources from one group to another, have resulted from this calculation problem. defense spending takes real resources entirely out of the So if Reagan significantly increases military pay and bene- productive economy—in effect, burying them. As Earl Ra- fits, what will happen? Given the CIA3s method of comput- venal has pointed out, weapons can do only one of two ing Soviet defense spending and the Soviets' 2 to 1 advantage things: they can rust or explode (and he prays that they'll in military personnel, every time we increase military pay rust). This means that stepped up arms spending can only and benefits for American servicemen, Soviet defense result in relatively more rapid price increases throughout the "spending" will increase by double that amount even though economy than would be caused by other government spend- actual spending hasn't increased a dime. Moreover, every ing, because real goods and services available to people time we initiate a military advantage and the Soviets attempt would be reduced. The proposed Reagan defense policies to match it, since the Soviets have roughly half the GNP of would thus lead to nothing but higher taxes, greater deficits, the U.S., their defense spending will increase by more than and more inflation—all of which are likely to anger the new twice the U.S. increase as a percentage of GNP even though President's constituents. By the end of 1984, Ronald Reagan the dollar increase will be only slightly more than the U.S. may be signing the' first $1 trillion budget — so much for increase. "getting the government off our backs." Thus, the more Reagan attempts to "match" the Soviets, (4) Then there is the demographic problem with man- using the CIA figures as a measure, the faster he will be chas- power which we will face over the next few years—as a re- ing his own tail. Given the large percentage of our defense 18 LICENSED TO UNZ.ORG THE LIBERTARIAN REVIEW ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED

budget which goes for military pay and benefits, the Soviets Capitalism and the Permissive Society. "The values of com- will be able to sit back and watch Americans spend them- petitive capitalism," he wrote in 1972, "have a great deal in selves into bankruptcy. common with contemporary attitudes, and in particular Already, our whole interventionist foreign policy—which with contemporary radical attitudes." not only costs us better than two-thirds of our defense bud- Above all, they share a similar stress on allowing people to get every year, but which also produces the opposite of its in- do.. .what they feel inclined to do rather than conform to the tended results—is about to fall apart. Already there is con- wishes of authority, custom or convention. Under a competitive siderable foot-dragging on the part of such allies as Britain system, the businessman will make money by catering for whatever and West Germany, both of whom are now stalling about in- it is that people wish to do—by providing pop records, or nude creasing their own defense spending by the 3 percent per shows, or candyfloss. He will not make anything by providing what the establishment thinks is good for them. An individual citizen is year in real terms which we recently got them to promise. If free to maximize his income by using his abilities.. .to cater for pub- we attempt to force the NATO countries to increase that still lic tastes. But he does not have to. He can go for the easiest or most more, what economic havoc will we produce among our congenial job, or the one with the most leisure; or, like most of us, Western allies? If we take a hard-line position of all-out sup- he can find some compromise between these alternatives. In any port for Israel, as Reagan has suggested, what will that do to case his life-style is his own. He can concentrate on personal plea- our relations with Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern sure, social service at home, the relief of poverty abroad, or any nations? If we support South Africa, as Reagan has sug- combination of these and numerous other activities. gested, will we alienate much of black Africa in the process Competitive capitalism is far from being the sole or dominating and possibly push it into the arms of the Soviets? And if we force of our society.... But to the extent that it prevails, competitive do, will we once again take this as an example of Soviet "ex- capitalism is the biggest single force acting on the side of what is fashionable to call "permissiveness," but what was once known as pansionism," and increase our own intervention still more personal liberty. Business enterprise can, of course, thrive and in response? Will we again alienate the nations of Latin prosper alongside a great deal of "moral" prohibitions and America, including our neighbor Mexico, by—as Reagan prescriptions, whether enforced by law or public opinion. But the has suggested—giving more massive aid to the gangsters profit motive will always be kicking against such restraints and running El Salvador? seeking to widen the range of what is permissible.... The profit mo- If we take such a course in our foreign policy, can anyone tive will act both to stretch the existing laws and as a force for its doubt that after four years of Ronald Reagan, the world will liberalization. be more chaotic, that American "interests" will look even As the members of the baby boom generation come of more besieged than they do today, and that defense spending age, they will see this, and, inevitably, they will come to ques- will escalate to the point where both taxes and inflation are tion more closely the underlying assumptions behind our in- simply out of control? Ronald Reagan's foreign policy will terventionist foreign policy. Growing up in an anti- inevitably be wrecked on the shoals of economic reality, in government age, in the midst of the Vietnam War and much the same way that the puritanical social values repre- Watergate and all the other scandals of the past decade and a sented by the "Reaganites" will be wrecked by the coming- half, they will form the core of that new coalition of voters of-age of the more "permissive" baby boom generation. and citizens which will call for moves toward deregulation at home and nonintervention abroad, toward a slashing of A new consensus?______taxes here and a slashing of commitments abroad, toward This is why the time is ripe for a "new consensus" of the an end to puritanical social views and a growing intolerance sort represented by Ed Clark and the Libertarian Party, a of the abuses and authority of government. They will be the consensus which favors drastic slashes in taxes and spend- center of a libertarian movement which will reject old cate- ing, complete deregulation of the economy, abolition of vic- gories, stereotypes, and political premises and instead break timless crime laws, and a foreign policy of nonintervention- new ground. ism, with matching budget cuts in the Department of De- In homage to Richard Cobden, the great classical liberal fense. The time is ripe for new ideas that stretch beyond old who advocated laissez-faire and opposed British im- coalitions. Every public opinion survey shows that Ameri- perialism, Samuel Brittan put it best: "The need for a mod- cans want government to get "off their backs," that they ern Cobdenite movement which would combine a belief in think taxes and spending are too high and that inflation is an both personal freedom and economic freedom with non- abomination for which government is primarily to blame. In intervention overseas has still to be met. It might attract their personal lives, they wish to be left alone to pursue their much more general support than the conventional Tory or own values. And their demand for an improved national de- Labour politician would suppose." fense is by no means the same thing as a demand for more in- This is the time bomb ticking today in America, in both terventionism or for a continuation of the American role as conservative and liberal camps. With Ronald Reagan's vic- global policeman. As Ed Clark pointed out in his 1980 cam- tory, the Right has come to power, and it will either fail, or paign for the Presidency, we would be more secure, not less, else be forced to drop whole segments of its self- if we disengaged from our entangling alliances, which only contradictory agenda for the 1980s and beyond. In the serve as tripwires to involvement in crises. meantime, the Left has collapsed. The stage has been set for The failure of the Reagan administration will come pre- a new beginning. Garnering nearly a million votes last year, cisely because, unlike Ed Clark, Ronald Reagan is not an five times their Presidential total in 1976, and nearly 200 opponent of big government. Capitalism, personal freedom, times their results in 1972, Ed Clark and the Libertarians and a noninterventionist foreign policy must go hand in have made their mark. As the Libertarian Party and the baby hand. boom generation come of age together, they will have an im- The relationship between capitalism and personal free- pact that may be as deep and profound as the American dom, or "permissiveness," has been stated most forcefully revolution itself.______Q by the English writer Samuel Brittan in his masterwork, Roy A. Childs, Jr. is The Editor of The Libertarian Review. 19 LICENSED TO UNZ.ORG JANUARY 1981 ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED

Oh God! "I am going to be JACK SHAFER the coup was not open to these peo- a foreign power, ple," President-elect THE WORLDWIDE CHURCH OF but the Worldwide Ronald Reagan told Church of God reporters on Novem- GOD FIGHTS FOR RELIGIOUS (WCG), headquar- ber 6, referring to tered in Pasadena. the newly politicized FREEDOM WITH A LAWSUIT THAT Based on charges of evangelical Chris- criminal wrongdo- tians who played SEEMS DESTINED WEND UP ing filed by six dis- such an active role sident WCG-mem- in the 1980 cam- INTHE SUPREME COURT. bers, the State threw paigns. "I'm not going to separate my- the Church into receivership. A Court- self from the people who elected us." The appointed receiver led a surprise blitz moral majoritarians will be looking for a on Church headquarters backed by agents number of different things from the Reagan of the Attorney General's office, private administration, of course, and not all of attorneys, and armed law enforcement them are things libertarians would be officers. Startled WCG employees resisted happy to see them get. But one demand of and were threatened with physical force, the new religious right should win the full arrest for contempt of court, and dismissal sympathy of libertarians, as Joan Kennedy if they did not cooperate with the invading Taylor argued last month—the demand force. A WCG secretary was quickly fired that the current trends toward government by the receiver. The financial pulse of the control of churches be stopped dead and Church ceased as the receiver and his staff then reversed. And if President Reagan is seized the administration of the Church interested in learning why that demand is and ordered its bank to stop payment on all so pressing in the minds of the evangelicals, checks, triggering a withdrawal of the he could do worse than direct his attention WCG's line of credit, a declaration of de- back to his home State of California, where fault on an outstanding loan (which the a particularly sinister drama of church ver- bank covered with Church assets on de- sus state has been performed in the courts posit), and destruction of the Worldwide for the past two years. Church of God's excellent credit rating. The State of Cali- ~~ Two years later the fornia staged a coup State has dropped d'etat on the morn- all lawsuits against ing of January 3, the Church and its 1979. The object of 'Section 9505 leaders. Not a single 20 THE LIBERTARIAN REVIEW LICENSED TO UNZ.ORG ELECTRONIC REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED