Federal Politics: Canadians a little less pessimistic about the direction of the country; Mulcair’s unfavourable numbers up slightly.

Please refer to the survey as: Abacus Data National Poll 2,099 Canadians were interviewed from August 10 to 12, 2012

Ottawa, ON – According to a new survey by Ottawa-based polling and strategic research firm Abacus Data, Canadians are a little less pessimistic about the direction of the country, are a little more likely to approve of the federal government’s job performance, and are a little more likely to view NDP Leader Tom Mulcair unfavourably.

Four in ten Canadians (40%) said that generally speaking Canada is heading in the right direction (up one point since June) while 43% believed things are headed in the wrong track (down three points since June).

Albertans are most likely to believe the country is headed in the right direction (65%) while Quebec respondents were least likely (32%) to think Canada is going in the right direction. Of note, 38% of British Columbia respondents believed the country was headed in the right direction while 46% believed the country was headed on the wrong track (Abacus interviewed 783 BC residents for this survey).

Federal Government Approval

With regards to overall government approval, Canadians were more likely to approve of the government’s job performance this month than in June. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they approved while 47% disapproved, a three percentage point increase in overall approval. The net approval rating for the government improved by five points, from -15% in June to -10% in August.

Like attitudes on the direction of the country, Albertans were most likely to approve of the federal government’s job performance (62% approve) while Quebecers were least likely to approve (20% approve).

Leader Favourability

Respondents were also asked to rate their feelings towards each of the major federal party leaders.

NDP leader Thomas Mulcair continues to be the only federal leader to have a net favourable impression with 31% saying they have a favourable impression and 27% having unfavourable impression.

However, the latest survey finds that as Canadians become more familiar with Mulcair the number of respondents who say they have an unfavourable impression has begun to increase. Those who said they don’t know, or feel neutral towards Mulcair have declined (by four points) since June and those who said they have an unfavourable impression have increased by three points.

There has been little change in Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s personal numbers from June. Thirty-six percent of respondents said they had a favourable impression, compared with 47% who said they have an unfavourable impression of the Conservative Party leader.

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Bob Rae’s personal numbers have not changed much since June with unfavourable numbers up slightly and favourable down slightly.

Party Growth

To gauge potential growth for the two most popular parties, the survey asked non-supporters of the NDP and Conservative Party what the chances are that they might support each party in the next federal election.

Overall, the Conservative Party has much less room for growth with only 10% of non-supporters (including undecided voters) saying there is a fair chance they would support the party in the next election. A majority of non-supporters said there is no chance they would support the Conservative Party.

The NDP on the other hand has more room to grown with 15% of all non-NDP supporters saying there is a fair chance they would support the NDP and 43% saying there is no chance they would support the Official Opposition.

The Conservatives have the most potential growth among current undecided voters and among Liberal supporters while the NDP has the most growth potential among Liberal and Green Party supporters.

Looking a little deeper at the numbers, the NDP has a good opportunity to grow support in BC since 21% of current Liberal supporters in the province said there is a fair chance they would support the NDP. Similarly, in Ontario, 27% of current Liberal Party supporters said there is a fair chance they would support the NDP in the next election.

The Bottom Line

The percentage of Canadians who disapprove of the Harper government’s performance has dropped slightly and Canadians are a little less pessimistic about the direction of the country.

For the main party leaders, Harper remains polarizing but people’s opinion of him have changed very little since June.

Tom Mulcair is slowly becoming better known to Canadians but at the same time his unfavourable numbers are rising. As both the NDP and the Conservative Party try and define the new opposition leader, we will continue to track how Canadians feel about the NDP leader.

Finally, in trying to understand how vote intentions may change over time, our poll shows that there may be room for the NDP to grow support for the party particularly among Liberal and Green Party voters in the next federal election (particularly in Ontario and BC). For the Conservatives, growth seems improbable among opposition party supporters and more likely among those Canadians undecided about their current vote choice.

Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 2,099 respondents living outside of Quebec in English using an internet survey platform. A random sample of panelists was invited to participate in the survey from a larger

100 Sparks Street, Suite 1090, Ottawa, ON K1P 5B7 T 613 232 2806 F 613 235 1444 Web: www.abacusdata.ca Twitter: abacusdataca

internet representative panel of over 150,000 Canadians. The survey was completed from August 10-12, 2012.

An over sample of was conducted in British Columbia (n=793) and Ontario (n=502).

The data was statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and education level according to census data.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated. The margin of error for a survey of 2,099 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

For more information about the survey, please contact David Coletto, CEO at [email protected] or 613- 232-2806.

100 Sparks Street, Suite 1090, Ottawa, ON K1P 5B7 T 613 232 2806 F 613 235 1444 Web: www.abacusdata.ca Twitter: abacusdataca Federal Politics Update Government Approval, and Leader Favourability

Abacus Data National Poll: August 10 - 12, 2012

August 17, 2012 www.abacusdata.ca Twitter.com/abacusdataca Methodology

The survey was conducted online with 2,099 respondents in English and French using an internet survey platform. A random sample of panelists was invited to participate in the survey from a larger internet representative panel of over 150,000 Canadians. The survey was completed from August 10-12, 2012.

An over sample of was conducted in British Columbia (n=793) and Ontario (n=502). The data was statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and education level according to census data.

Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated. The margin of error for a survey of 2,099 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

These questions were posed as part of the Abacus monthly Omnibus.

For more information about the poll’s methodology, visit the Abacus website at www.abacusdata.ca

The table below reports the unweighted and weighted distribution by region or province.

Unweighted Count Weighted Count Region/Province (All Respondents) (All respondents)

Atlantic Canada 151 149 Quebec 304 482 Ontario 502 818 Prairies (MB and SK) 148 141 Alberta 201 229

BC 793 277 Total 2,099 2,095 Right Direction of Wrong Track? Q: Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?:

49% 48% 44% 44% 46% 46% 43%

31% 39% 41% 38% 39% 39% 40%

20% 17% 16% 17% 15% 13% 15%

Aug 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 June 2012 Aug 2012

Right Direction Wrong Track Don't Know

Subgroup Analysis

Canada Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-60 60+ CPC LPC Right Direction 40% 46% 33% 32% 34% 41% 51% 76% 31% Wrong Track 43% 42% 45% 48% 46% 43% 38% 11% 54% Don’t Know 17% 11% 22% 20% 21% 16% 11% 13% 15%

NDP Green Bloc Atlantic Quebec Ontario Central Alberta B.C. Right Direction 19% 25% 25% 31% 32% 39% 47% 65% 38% Wrong Track 66% 62% 66% 52% 53% 42% 33% 25% 46% Don’t Know 15% 13% 9% 17% 15% 19% 21% 10% 16% Harper Government Job Approval Rating Q: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Stephen Harper is doing?: 49% 49% 49% 50% 47% 45% 43% 42% 43% 40% 37% 40% 40% 35% 37% 37% 37% 30% 34% 25% 20% 18% 20% 17% 16% 17% 14% 15% 15% 10% August 2011 December 2011 January 2012 March 2012 May 2012 June 2012 Aug 2012 Approve Neither Disapprove

Subgroup Analysis

Canada Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ CPC LPC Strongly Approve 12% 14% 10% 8% 9% 12% 19% 36% 1% Somewhat Approve 25% 27% 23% 15% 25% 27% 30% 53% 16% Neither 17% 13% 20% 26% 18% 15% 9% 8% 14% Somewhat Disapprove 20% 17% 22% 20% 21% 19% 18% 4% 32% Strongly Disapprove 27% 28% 26% 32% 27% 27% 24% - 38%

NDP Green Bloc Atlantic Quebec Ontario Central Alberta B.C. Strongly Approve 1% 2% 3% 5% 4% 13% 16% 31% 11% Somewhat Approve 9% 7% 9% 21% 16% 28% 31% 31% 26% Neither 15% 23% 20% 16% 21% 16% 16% 12% 14% Somewhat Disapprove 28% 24% 25% 20% 28% 18% 11% 15% 19% Strongly Disapprove 47% 45% 44% 38% 32% 26% 27% 11% 30% Prime Minister Stephen Harper Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of the following people?

49% 49% 49% 50% 47% 43% 44% 44% 45% 40% 42% 35% 38% 37% 37% 36% 30% 35% 35% 25% 19% 20% 20% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 12% 10% August 2011 December January 2012 March 2012 May 2012 June 2012 Aug 2012 2011 Favourable Neutral/Don't know Unfavourable

Subgroup Analysis

Canada Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ CPC LPC Very Favourable 15% 16% 13% 9% 10% 14% 23% 43% 1% Somewhat Favourable 22% 24% 19% 13% 22% 25% 25% 45% 12% Neutral 13% 13% 13% 19% 16% 11% 7% 7% 12% Somewhat Unfavourable 14% 14% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 3% 24% Very Unfavourable 33% 32% 34% 38% 33% 33% 30% 1% 49% Don’t Know 3% 1% 6% 7% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1%

NDP Green Bloc Atlantic Quebec Ontario Central Alberta B.C. Very Favourable - 5% 1% 9% 6% 15% 16% 36% 13% Somewhat Favourable 9% 14% 10% 20% 15% 25% 24% 25% 21% Neutral 13% 18% 10% 11% 15% 13% 17% 9% 12% Somewhat Unfavourable 20% 13% 21% 11% 19% 13% 8% 14% 14% Very Unfavourable 58% 49% 57% 46% 41% 31% 29% 13% 36% Don’t Know 1% 2% 1% 3% 4% 3% 6% 2% 4% NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of the following people? 70% Nycole Turmel 60% 59% 59% 59% 50% 57% 44% 45% 41% 40% 36% 31% 28% 31% 30% 26% 26% 22% 20% 17% 27% 13% 14% 21% 24% 18% 10% August 2011 December January 2012 March 2012 May 2012 June 2012 Aug 2012 2011 Favourable Neutral/Don't know Unfavourable

Subgroup Analysis

Canada Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-60 60+ CPC LPC Very Favourable 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% - 4% Somewhat Favourable 23% 24% 22% 27% 20% 22% 25% 8% 25% Neutral 31% 28% 33% 36% 35% 29% 24% 27% 40% Somewhat Unfavourable 11% 13% 9% 7% 12% 11% 13% 16% 13% Very Unfavourable 17% 20% 13% 8% 13% 20% 23% 38% 11% Don’t Know 11% 7% 15% 15% 12% 10% 6% 11% 8%

NDP Green Bloc Atlantic Quebec Ontario Central Alberta B.C. Very Favourable 24% - 7% 8% 14% 6% 11% 2% 9% Somewhat Favourable 45% 15% 39% 22% 38% 21% 13% 10% 21% Neutral 23% 43% 40% 31% 32% 34% 29% 25% 25% Somewhat Unfavourable 4% 15% 9% 13% 7% 11% 10% 14% 13% Very Unfavourable 1% 16% 5% 9% 5% 16% 24% 40% 18% Don’t Know 4% 12% 1% 17% 4% 12% 13% 10% 14% Liberal Interim Leader Bob Rae Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of the following people? 50% 47% 45% 42% 43% 40% 40% 40% 40% 38% 35% 30% 38% 36% 36% 30% 33% 33% 34% 25% 28% 27% 25% 26% 20% 24% 22% 20% 15% 10% August 2011 December January 2012 March 2012 May 2012 June 2012 Aug 2012 2011 Favourable Neutral/Don't know Unfavourable

Subgroup Analysis

Canada Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ CPC LPC Very Favourable 5% 5% 6% 3% 5% 4% 8% - 20% Somewhat Favourable 19% 21% 18% 15% 19% 19% 22% 8% 43% Neutral 32% 28% 35% 41% 35% 30% 23% 26% 24% Somewhat Unfavourable 17% 18% 16% 14% 16% 18% 19% 24% 8% Very Unfavourable 19% 25% 14% 12% 15% 22% 25% 37% 3% Don’t Know 8% 4% 12% 14% 10% 6% 4% 5% 3%

NDP Green Bloc Atlantic Quebec Ontario Central Alberta B.C. Very Favourable 5% 1% - 7% 4% 6% 4% 4% 5% Somewhat Favourable 23% 23% 10% 21% 23% 20% 15% 11% 16% Neutral 40% 33% 40% 31% 39% 26% 37% 33% 31% Somewhat Unfavourable 16% 13% 27% 12% 18% 17% 13% 18% 17% Very Unfavourable 11% 22% 19% 17% 10% 24% 20% 24% 18% Don’t Know 5% 9% 5% 12% 6% 6% 10% 10% 13% Potential Conservative Party Growth Q: Even though you are not supporting the Conservative Party, what are the chances that you might support the Conservative Party in the next federal election?

All non-Conservative 10% 17% 19% 54% supporters

Undecided voters 12% 22% 24% 43%

Liberal voters 10% 18% 22% 50%

Green voters 15% 16% 18% 52%

NDP voters 5% 15% 18% 63%

BQ voters 8% 12% 8% 72%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fair chance Small chance A very slight chance No chance Potential NDP Growth Q: Even though you are not supporting the NDP , what are the chances that you might support the NDP in the next federal election?

All non-NDP supporters 15% 24% 19% 43%

Liberal voters 23% 33% 20% 24%

Green voters 10% 32% 28% 30%

BQ voters 10% 23% 29% 37%

Undecided voters 9% 22% 21% 48%

Conservative voters 11% 18% 15% 56%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fair chance Small chance A very slight chance No chance For more information about this study or Abacus Data Inc., please contact:

David Coletto, PhD Chief Executive Officer (613) 232-2806 x. 248 [email protected] Twitter.com/ColettoD

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