Bogs, Birds, and Berries in Belarus: the Governance and Management Dynamics of Wetland Restoration in a State-Centric, Top-Down Context

Copyright © 2021 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance. Dawson, L., M. Elbakidze, M. Schellens, A. Shkaruba, and P. K. Angelstam. 2021. Bogs, birds, and berries in Belarus: the governance and management dynamics of wetland restoration in a state-centric, top-down context. Ecology and Society 26(1):8. https://doi. org/10.5751/ES-12139-260108

Research Bogs, birds, and berries in Belarus: the governance and management dynamics of wetland restoration in a state-centric, top-down context Lucas Dawson 1,2, Marine Elbakidze 2,3, Marie Schellens 1,4, Anton Shkaruba 5 and Per K. Angelstam 2

ABSTRACT. Wetlands are complex social-ecological systems, which provide both important habitat for species, and multiple tangible and intangible benefits for people. Sustaining long-term benefits through restoration, conservation, and sustainable use is often linked to integrative and adaptive approaches to wetlands management. Such approaches assume democratic ideals, and require multilevel, multisector, and multiactor participation in governance and management arrangements. How then can functional wetlands be restored and sustainably managed as social-ecological systems in strongly state-centric, top-down governance contexts, such as in former Soviet republics? Using three case studies of wetland restoration and management for ecosystem functionality, biodiversity conservation, and human livelihoods, we employ a complex systems approach to analyze key governance and management dynamics underpinning initiatives toward sustainable wetlands in Belarus. We identified five core processes, namely, planning, garnering stakeholder support, obtaining key inputs (financial, human, material, technological, fixed capital), implementing core activities, and integrating learning and knowledge cycles. Key constraints concerned institutional hierarchies, onerous regulations, “negativism,” and financing difficulties. Strategies relating to perception management, risk mitigation, and learning are identified as key to enabling beneficial feedback loops relating to core processes. Although path-dependent societal dynamics of the Soviet era continue to influence wetland systems, combinations of social and ecological crises created windows of opportunity for active participation among nongovernmental actors. Major opportunities for enabling emergent management approaches included identification of confluences of interest amongst stakeholders, as well as the continued mutual integration of Belarus with the international community. Key Words: biodiversity conservation; complex systems; environmental governance and resource management; habitat restoration; social- ecological system dynamics; sustainability strategies; sustainable enterprise

INTRODUCTION underpinned by concepts from complex systems theory, and are Wetlands are complex coupled social-ecological systems (SES) typically idealized as hybrid models, where decision-making that provide a range of benefits for biodiversity and human power is distributed amongst a variety of actors throughout a livelihoods (Verhoeven 2014). Although humans have exploited polycentric architecture of hierarchies, markets, and networks and managed wetlands for millennia (Rippon 2000), widespread (Kronsell and Bäckstrand 2010, Ruíz et al. 2011). However, the drainage during the 20th century for the development of state-centric, top-down governance contexts surrounding agriculture, forestry, or peat extraction has led to the long-term wetland restoration in many countries, such as former Soviet loss of more than 50% of the world’s natural wetlands (Davidson republics, are not considered to be consistent with such 2014). In Europe, less than 20% of original natural wetlands approaches (Kluvánková-Oravská et al. 2009, Shkaruba and remain (Finlayson and Spiers 1999, Verhoeven 2014). This has Kireyeu 2013). This stresses the need for understanding the extent led to losses of both biodiversity and ecosystem services to which sustainable wetlands and their benefits, as integrated (Roodbergen et al. 2012, IPBES 2018, Manton and Angelstam SES, can be restored in such contexts. 2018, Valasiuk et al. 2018). These issues underscore the need to Belarus, which became an independent state following the understand the development and implementation of initiatives to breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, is a good example. The restore functionally degraded wetlands, and thus conserve country retains a strong legacy of top-down command-control biodiversity and support human livelihoods through the environmental governance, including state ownership of all land development of social-ecological value chains based on ecosystem and natural resources. Formerly covering roughly 15% of Belarus, services (e.g., Dawson et al. 2017). wetlands are now the most threatened ecosystem type, with nearly The limitations of rigidly top-down, command-control 1.5 million hectares (> 50%) of pristine peatlands lost between environmental governance and management approaches have the 1950s and 2001 to large-scale draining for agricultural been increasingly highlighted in recent decades (Cilliers et al. purposes (USAID 2001, Bambalov 2009, Wichtmann et al. 2013, 2013, Kirschke et al. 2017). This has led to a revival of holistic Kozulin et al. 2018). These wetlands provide habitat for many conceptualizations regarding SES (e.g., Folke et al. 2005) and species, which are threatened and endangered in other parts of landscapes (e.g., Angelstam et al. 2019), and support for evidence- Europe (Valasiuk et al. 2018). The number of wetland areas with based, integrative, and adaptive approaches to wetlands official conservation status grew continuously in the 1990s, when governance and management (Turner et al. 2000, de Blaeij et al. perceived land value was low and unprofitable peat production 2011, Chaffin and Gunderson 2016). Such approaches are enterprises were closed (Otto et al. 2011). As of 2018, Belarus

1Environmental and Resource Dynamics Group, Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 2Forest-Landscape-Society Research Network, School for Forest Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 3Faculty of Geography, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Ukraine, 4Environment and Natural Resources Programme, Faculty of Political Science, University of Iceland, 5Department of Environmental Protection and Landscape Management, Estonian University of Life Sciences Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

hosts 26 Ramsar sites, covering 778,303 ha. At the same time, (Ostrom 2010, Koontz et al. 2015, Pahl-Wostl 2015) and to Belarus is ranked eighth in the world for national greenhouse gas provide and account for institutional redundancy (Lemos and emissions from degrading peat (Joosten 2010). Loss of wetlands Agrawal 2006). Coordination is achieved by establishing and in Belarus has triggered efforts toward different kinds of strengthening flexible links between interconnected, heterogeneous restoration initiatives ranging from conservation of rare species nodes of power and authority, to balance top-down and bottom- confined to traditionally mowed fens (Valasiuk et al. 2018) to up influences (Olsson et al. 2007, Pahl-Wostl 2015). rewetting of drained areas to restore the natural peat forming Second, adaptive approaches to natural resource management are capacity (Tanneberger and Wichtmann 2011). Several of these seen as a key means by which to tame the dynamism, behavioral restoration initiatives show clear positive outcomes on the ground complexity, and inherent unpredictability of complex SES for biodiversity and human livelihoods. dynamics (Armitage 2005, Gregory et al. 2006, Olsson et al. 2006, Although supported by the Ministry for Natural Resources and Walters 2007, Rist et al. 2013, Koontz et al. 2015). Adaptive Environmental Protection, wetland restoration initiatives are approaches aim to improve environmental governance and often greatly constrained in Belarus, particularly because of strict management through the development of explicit, systematic legislation regulating many active management measures in mechanisms and processes for iterative, reflexive learning, nature conservation areas (Shkaruba and Kireyeu 2013). engendering a culture of continuous improvement by evaluation Additionally, national environmental objectives regarding of past experiences (Pahl-Wostl 2007, Allen et al. 2011). Adaptive wetlands are subject to persistent lobbying from industrial and management is often split into active and passive forms, with the agricultural actors, as well as state ministries propagating renewal former characterized by multiple hypotheses and active of wetland reclamation projects and continued investment in peat experimentation, whereas the latter primarily relies on extraction (BelTA 2018). At the international level, Belarus has interpretation of best available data and monitoring regimes (Rist expressed high environmental ambitions, and has ratified multiple et al. 2013). Adaptive governance addresses the range of multilateral agreements relating to biodiversity conservation, interactions between actors, networks, organizations, and ecological networks, and green economy. These agreements have institutions, which arise from management interventions in SES provided access to international donor mechanisms. (Folke et al. 2005, Chaffin et al. 2014). The aim of this study is to improve understanding of the Integrative and adaptive approaches are theoretically governance and management dynamics of wetland restoration in underpinned by the fundamentally democratic ideals of “good” state-centric, top-down governance contexts. We adopt a complex environmental governance/management, e.g., transparency, systems approach (e.g. Checkland 1981, Wolstenholme and Coyle participation, equity, deliberation, and legitimacy (Ribot 2003, 1983, Bosch et al. 2007, Inam et al. 2015), which is increasingly UNESCAP 2009, Bäckstrand et al. 2010), and are therefore used in environmental management and sustainability science to primarily achievable by improving democratic institutions and provide systematic frameworks for identifying and supporting the scope for nonstate actors to participate (Sending and context-sensitive analyses and maintaining transferability across Neumann 2006, Stringer et al. 2006, Lövbrand and Khan 2010). cases (Gonzalès and Parrott 2012, Lade and Niiranen 2015, As a result, these approaches are claimed to satisfy demands for Dawson et al. 2017). This approach is particularly useful for a more equitable distribution of decision-making power, enabling studying emergent phenomena in relation to the contextual more effective governance processes because of a broader constraints from which they emerge (Chu et al. 2003, Cilliers et knowledge base, increased legitimacy of decisions, reduced al. 2013). Using three case studies, we identify and map aggregate conflict among stakeholders, and the establishment of long-term, patterns among causal dynamics underpinning wetland trust-based relationships (Macleod et al. 2007, Lövbrand and restoration initiatives in Belarus. These patterns are Khan 2010, Stave 2010, Jager et al. 2016, Reed et al. 2016). contextualized using narrative descriptions from semistructured However, integrated and adaptive approaches have been criticized interviews and group workshops. We develop a theoretical for lacking sufficiently well-understood criteria for determining framework to enable us to answer our main research questions, under which circumstances they might be appropriate, e.g., which are the following: What are the main opportunities and flexibility of decision-making, perceived risks of failure, or constraints for the emergence of integrated, adaptive approaches available institutional capacities (Gregory et al. 2006, Rist et al. to wetland restoration in strongly state-centric, top-down 2013, Kininmonth et al. 2015), and are typically unable to replace contexts? Which key management strategies might be employed the accountability of existing hierarchical bureaucracies to harness such opportunities and overcome constraints? (Bäckstrand 2004, Lemos and Agrawal 2006, Garmestani and Benson 2013). THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Many principles and criteria for the sustainable governance and Multiple powerful feedbacks, e.g., sunk costs, tend to reinforce management of SES (e.g., Folke et al. 2005, Ostrom and Cox 2010, the status quo in natural resource governance and management, Rijke et al. 2012, Garmestani and Benson 2013) are heavily hindering reforms toward more sustainable approaches (e.g., influenced by two overarching concepts relating to complex Folke et al. 2005, van Bueren and ten Heuvelhof 2005, systems (e.g., Pahl-Wostl et al. 2012, Halbe et al. 2013). First, the Garmestani and Benson 2013). These dominant feedbacks integration of cross-sectoral and multilevel system components, exemplify path dependence, whereby complex systems integrate e.g., actor/stakeholder groups, policy instruments, values and past policies with present behavior, irreversibly constraining perspectives, or different kinds of knowledge, into a coordinated system trajectories to a subset of all possible futures (Juarrero system is proposed as an essential means for engaging with the 2000, Grubler et al. 2015). However, the same feedbacks also structural complexity of SES governance and management create inertia and rigidity, making adaptation to radically new Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

Fig. 1. Illustration of the case studies “Bogs,” “Birds,” and “Berries.” Cases “Bogs” and “Birds” each focus on wetland restoration, to reduce greenhouse emissions from decaying peatlands, and promote species conservation. Draining of eutrophic fen mires, e.g., to increase agricultural land or wood production, destroys important habitats for globally endangered bird species like Corn Crake (Crex crex) and Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola; center). Landscapes with both large raised bogs (left) for safe roosting sites, and drained agricultural land (right) for food, are crucially important migration stopovers for Cranes (Grus grus). Case “Berries” focuses on value-added production based on cranberry (Oxycoccus spp.) and cloudberry (Rubus chaememorus), both growing on raised bogs. Illustration by Martin Holmer.

paradigms difficult, and leaving governance/management al. 2015). Additionally, recent studies indicate that attitudes arrangements sensitive to random shocks and changes in the amongst decision makers and the general public in top-down external context (Sterman 2000). Such events can unlock path domains remain skeptical of core democratic values (World dependent structures from current paths, shifting systems into Values Survey 2014, Teorell et al. 2018, Bui-Wrzosińska 2019). emergent domains (Miller and Page 2007). For example, Weigle The degree to which integrated, adaptive approaches may prove and Butterfield (1992) showed how systemic crises in the context useful and appropriate for wetland restoration initiatives in highly of post-totalitarian regimes led to the emergence of civil society state-centric, command-control bureaucracies lacking fundamental actors in Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. democratic traditions, such as Belarus, remains therefore unclear.

Emergence refers to macro-level phenomena, which unexpectedly METHODS arise as a result of the dynamic interactions between microlevel components, and by their interactions with external contexts Case studies (Kurtz and Snowden 2003, Cilliers et al. 2013). From the Three case studies were selected, representing a spectrum of perspective of this paper, wetlands management initiatives in wetland ecosystem types and restoration objectives (Fig. 1), Belarus emerge from the dynamic historical, political, cultural, namely raised bogs as functional wetlands (e.g., Meli et al. 2014), economic, and environmental contexts in which they are habitat conservation for birds on fen mires (e.g., Valasiuk et al. embedded (Folke et al. 2005, Pahl-Wostl 2009). However, these 2018), and sustainable supply of berries and other natural contexts cannot be directly influenced by the management resources (e.g., Stryamets et al. 2015). Taken together these cases systems themselves over the temporal and spatial scales of interest encompass a wetlands-derived social-ecological value chain for (Pahl-Wostl 2015). Path-dependent dynamics relating to the supporting rural livelihoods. The cases represent initiatives from external system context, e.g., Belarus’s economic or institutional the civil, public, and private sectors respectively, occurring on the development, may therefore inhibit the realization of certain two main groups of wetlands, traditionally mowed fens and management configurations (Pahl-Wostl 2015) resulting in poor natural bogs. Case selection was based on two main criteria: cases fit between decision-making structures, e.g., conventional had implemented clear changes toward the restoration and/or hierarchies, and the changing social-ecological system (Epstein et sustainable management of wetlands, which had been maintained Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

over time; and, the management approach was clearly perceived harvest methods, in order to secure a sustainable supply of wild by a wide range of stakeholders to be successful in terms of foods. Production occurs mainly at the local scale, in the small delivering multiple benefits over the longer term[1]. town of Hlubokaje near Jeĺnia bog. Case “Bogs” focuses on wetland restoration activities at the Jeĺnia Research process bog, a 23,200 ha complex of raised bogs and transitional mires The analyses focus on the experiences of management leaders of in NW Belarus (Fig. 2; a more thorough description of the case wetland restoration and management initiatives in Belarus, as studies is available in Appendix 1). Jeĺnia’s hydrological balance sense-makers and situational actors providing a key locus of was dramatically altered by drainage schemes in the 1960s, operational and strategic decision making (Checkland 1981, although some drainage channels for peat mining date back more White and Fortune 2009). For our three cases, these leaders were: than 100 years (Kozulin et al. 2010). Since 1975, more than 77% the director of an NGO, a senior scientist at a government agency, of Jeĺnia’s area has been burned by peat fires, including a major and the CEO of a private enterprise, respectively. These fire in 2002. The Jeĺnia bog restoration initiative commenced in individuals had insight into all phases of their respective 1999, coordinated by local ornithological NGO APB Birdlife initiatives, and represent a unique source of three types of Belarus. Management efforts have primarily focused on delivering knowledge relevant for understanding complex systems, namely, ecosystem function outcomes and habitat for both resident and (1) theoretical understanding of the system (system knowledge), migratory bird species but also support environmental education, (2) of the opportunities and constraints of decision making bird-watching, and fishing tourism activities. (orientation knowledge), and (3) of practical ways of implementing decisions (transformation knowledge; Becker Fig. 2. Case study locations. Locations of bogs and mires 2009, Jahn et al. 2012, Popa et al. 2015). extracted from Bohn et al. (2000). Data collection Figure 3 provides an overview of our research process. Data was collected in three steps. First, individual semistructured interviews were conducted with the leader of each initiative, using an interview manual of open questions to guide responses toward areas of research interest regarding all phases of the studied initiatives (Kvale and Brinkmann 2008). Digitally recorded interviews were taken in 2016, lasting 90–120 minutes, and were conducted and transcribed in Russian, before being professionally translated into English.

Fig. 3. Overview of the research process. Note: “CLDs” refer to causal loop diagrams.

Case “Birds” focuses on restoration activities at Zvanets and Sporava protected areas in SW Belarus, which are among the largest fen mire peatlands in Europe at 15,000 ha and 18,000 ha, and host globally threated bird species. As in Jeĺnia, these peatlands have been subject to historical drainage resulting in large-scale fires in 1999 and 2002. These areas have undergone restoration efforts since 2006, with initial objectives focused on re-elevation of ground water levels to prevent further fires, restore ecological integrity for bird conservation, and allow resumption Second, management and operational representatives from cases of local livelihoods and recreational activities (UNDP 2016a). Bogs and Berries conducted the researchers through their Case “Berries” examines a successful and unique privately owned, respective implementation areas. Discussions during these field small-scale enterprise, Aržanica (https://arzhanitsa.by/en/), based excursions, 2–4 hour duration, clarified issues related to the on value-added production of wild foods harvested from raised history of wetlands in question as SES, the development bogs, for example, sugar-powdered cranberries. The firm trajectory of each sustainability initiative, the primary explicitly supports sustainable wetland management by, e.g., stakeholders involved, core objectives, achievements, and participating in internationally sponsored wetland restoration challenges. Case Birds provided a 2-hour presentation. and conservation initiatives (e.g., UNDP 2016b) and has Third, two group workshops, 4 and 8 hour duration, were developed a number of objectives and protocols, e.g., relating to convened where initiative leaders participated together, Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

examining causal structures and system dynamics of their depopulation trends, which impacted local livelihoods and respective initiatives as the basis for open, critical discussions. availability of relevant knowledge. Such legacies underpinned a Additional data and context elicited from the workshops was variety of contemporaneous drivers, e.g., focus on domestic subsequently integrated with interview data in an iterative energy security, leading to the development of plans in each case. aggregation process. Data analysis Fig. 4. An overview level causal loop diagram (CLD), Using qualitative systems modeling methods (Coyle 2000, Eden synthesizing the core dynamics of studied wetland restoration 2004, Reichel et al. 2004, Bureš 2017) including causal loop initiatives in Belarus. Three sets of drivers triggered windows of diagrams[2] (CLDs), causal structures of the problem space were opportunity and subsequently influenced five core management mapped for each case study (Dawson et al. 2017). CLDs were processes (in dashed box). Arrows connecting directly to generated from both interview and workshop data in an iterative, dashed box indicate the influence of a given driver on multiple inclusive process (Sterman 2000) using an open-coding method. processes within the box. Figures 5–9 unpack the dynamics of Open-coding in this case refers to a data-steered process of each of the core processes and relationships with drivers. meaning-making and categorizing data, providing for a qualitative analysis of relationships between identified codes and the context surrounding them (Bryman 2004, Corbin and Strauss 2008). Raw data, e.g., transcribed interview and group workshop data, were analyzed to identify direct cause-effect relationships. Identified relationships were integrated into networks of causal relationships, i.e., “complete” CLDs, for each case (see Appendix 2). These CLDs were subsequently iteratively aggregated toward identification of the key system dynamics underlying the emergent management approach and its outcomes in each case. A comparative analysis of these CLDs was then conducted to identify and aggregate key causal dynamics, i.e., common underlying dynamics, across the three case studies. Two systems analysts (LD and MS) worked independently on the initial datasets in order to limit experimenter bias (Scholz et al. 2015), and as a verification process, by assessing the intersubjective Interactions between these legacies created windows of comparability of the two independent analyses (e.g., Kvale and opportunity triggering sustainability initiatives, and shaped the Brinkmann 2009). Independently generated model structures were main thrust of key long-term objectives. For example, Soviet then compared, discussed, and harmonized prior to assessing the drainage and land-use regimes led to catastrophic bog fires when fit between cases. combined with intentional fire-setting behaviors among local Generated CLDs were translated into Russian and presented to peoples to reduce tick abundance. The scale and frequency of interviewees for validation; comments received were integrated these fires became a call to action. The apparent failure of initial into the final CLDs. state-based responses, such as investment in fire-fighting infrastructure, provided opportunities for fire prevention through RESULTS hydrological restoration. At the overview level, each case comprised an interconnected system (Fig. 4) consisting of three sets of key drivers: (a) the A particular set of leadership characteristics was crucial to be institutional environment and regulatory system, (b) adequacy of able to perceive these windows of opportunity, including specific leadership, and (c) the wetlands ecosystem itself; and five core educational and professional backgrounds, personal interests and processes, relating to (1) planning, (2) garnering support, (3) value systems, and employment status. Project initiators were all obtaining key inputs, (4) implementing core activities, and (5) situated in decision-making capacities, e.g., director of NGO, developing and integrating learning and knowledge processes. chief engineer, etc. Although briefly presented below, the dynamics of each of the core Adequacy of plans (Fig. 5) encompassed a spectrum of formal processes and relationships with drivers are unpacked in greater and informal documents and processes, intended for both internal detail in Appendix 3. and external use. According to interviewees, adequate plans Interviewees frequently referred to historical institutional legacies, included clear, well-prioritized objectives and novel ideas and regarding the Soviet Union, its dissolution, and subsequent rapid innovations, and were important to the identification and changes in land use, as key elements that shaped the institutional mitigation of perceived risk. Plans were developed through environment and regulatory system in which wetlands restoration dynamic, iterative planning processes to identify and integrate initiatives took place. Soviet-era land use practices and broad sets of knowledge and input requirements (e.g., regarding mismanagement were identified as a primary cause of the generally problem urgency or financial requirements and opportunities), deteriorated state of many natural wetlands. Key economic drivers, processes and organizational structures necessary to achieve such as lack of state funding for ecological initiatives, were linked strategic and operational objectives. In all cases, planning to the continued fallout of the post-Soviet transition. Soviet- and processes changed over time as new ideas, knowledge, transition-era policies were also identified as underlying rural stakeholders, and inputs came to hand. Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

Fig. 5. Submodel unpacking the causal dynamics influencing the adequacy of planning for wetland restoration initiatives in Belarus. Core drivers and processes are in bold. Colored, nonbolded variables represent specific concepts unpacked from within respective core processes. E.g., Clear, well-prioritized objectives is a facet of adequacy of planning. Thick lines represent links between core drivers/processes. Several variables recur throughout Figures 5–9, representing points where core process dynamics link together in an integrated model.

Adequate support (Fig. 6) of external and internal stakeholders capital resources available to initiatives (Figs. 7A and 7B). was essential for the provision of a wide variety of essential Financial resources were a key input, enabling other inputs and permits and approvals. The degree of dependency on stakeholder thereby activity rates and delivery of outcomes/outputs. support varied across the cases. The leader for case Berries, for Interviewees referred to two main sources of financial resources, example, perceived a considerable degree of self-sufficiency, albeit donor funding and internally generated sales revenue. State funds remaining dependent on permissions. Both leaders for cases Birds were scarcely available, and then generally only to projects with and Bogs expressed a greater need for stakeholder support, partly a clear social/economic dimension. Materials and other variable because of an increased exposure to regulatory requirements, and inputs (Fig. 7B) referred to various materials harvested from also for inputs (especially financial). Our analysis identified five wetlands and utilized in value-added production chains, but also key strategies by which our cases sought to garner support for to natural capital used in other initiative-driven activities, e.g., wetlands management activities. These included cultivating cranes for bird-watching tourism. The inherent properties, relationships with key governmental decision makers, aligning quality, and abundance of case specific material inputs management objectives with those of other stakeholders, determined whether available technology/fixed capital inputs developing public awareness-raising and communications were adequate (Fig. 7B). Diversification could lead to multiple strategies to promote “brand" visibility,” ensuring the perceived uses of the same capital, but often led to the need for additional legitimacy of management initiatives in the eyes of stakeholders, inputs. In most cases, human resources (Figs. 7B and 8) referred and by addressing and mitigating perceived risks. to internal team members or those of partner organizations although volunteers also provided important contributions in Support and the scale of planned activities were both key case Bogs, e.g., providing a low-cost substitute to otherwise determinants of the adequacy of inputs, which referred to the unavailable financial and capital inputs. Human resources variety of financial, material, human, and technological/fixed Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

Fig. 6. Submodel unpacking causal dynamics influencing adequacy of stakeholder support, which is partially disaggregated in this diagram to clarify key dynamics relating to the support of two important stakeholder types, government authorities and key decision makers. Although other drivers of support, e.g., brand visibility, or legitimacy of initiative, also influence these subconcepts, these relationships are not explicitly represented here, for the sake of diagrammatic clarity and to avoid double- accounting.

provided important knowledge and experience, but were often of new standards and procedures, and to invitations for initiative drained by an endless stream of administrative/bureaucratic representatives to participate in regulatory system reform paperwork, resulting from an onerous regulatory system. processes. These feedbacks were often slow. Many of the planned activities in the studied cases were, directly Adequacy of available knowledge and experience (Fig. 8) was or indirectly, aimed at increasing the number of wetland users, conceptualized as a clear understanding regarding problem scale, and/or the creation of local employment opportunities, and thus current interpretations of relevant government policies and had important impacts on the adequacy of local livelihoods (Fig. strategies, key factors, system requirements, and potential 9). Some use-based activities involving active management solutions. Existing knowledge was accessed in a number of ways, measures, e.g., clearing vegetation, were obstructed by passive from knowledgeable human resources, e.g., experts/specialists, management requirements associated with nature protection competent staff and leaders; from formal sources such as national norms or were restricted by other governmental regulatory and international research organizations and databases; from systems. Activity rate and outcomes/outputs led to multiple direct informal sources such as excursions to analogue firms/initiatives, and indirect feedbacks on stakeholder support (Figs. 5, 7, 9), dialogue with other organizations who had relevant experiences. including that of state authorities and key individual decision As such, access to existing knowledge could be obtained through makers. In some cases, successful outcomes led to the adoption support mechanisms, or was otherwise a factor of adequate financial resources. Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

Fig. 7. Submodels unpacking causal dynamics influencing adequacy of inputs for wetland restoration initiatives. Inputs are disaggregated into four main types: Financial resources, Technology/fixed capital, Human resources, and Materials and other variable inputs. Fig 7 is separated into two submodels simply to reduce diagrammatic complexity and aid reader comprehension. Links from support to the various disaggregated types of inputs are aggregated into one main link in B. Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

Fig. 8. Submodel unpacking causal dynamics influencing the adequacy of learning and knowledge for wetland restoration initiatives. Learning and knowledge/experience concepts are disaggregated in this submodel in order to clarify causal pathways. These concepts are otherwise aggregated together in the other submodels.

However, initiatives also adopted multiple modes of ongoing generated knowledge. The leader for case Berries sought patents learning, and were keen to ensure the transfer of knowledge to to protect innovations and intellectual property arising from partners, staff, collaborators, and other key stakeholders through investments in R&D. The leader for case Bogs, on the other hand, training and communication strategies. Investment in active sought to disseminate project-generated learning as freely as learning processes, e.g., R&D/experimentation, and activity rates possible. were important determinants of learning processes. Experimentation was typically fused with implementation activities, i.e., learning DISCUSSION by doing, with both balanced by identical feedback control from Opportunities and constraints for integrated and adaptive available inputs (primarily funds). However, learning by doing approaches to wetland restoration in state-centric, top-down was complicated by factors of uncertainty and complexity, e.g., contexts false positives/negatives or imperceptible causality. Opportunities Although the integration of Belarus with the international Environmental crises are increasingly recognized as a potential community, particularly regarding international research trigger for institutional adaptations toward sustainability, by collaborations, was perceived by interviewees to have improved calling command-control management approaches into question knowledge availability (Fig. 8), interviewees acknowledged and fragmenting political authority (Kronsell and Bäckstrand limitations regarding the direct applicability of international 2010, Bond et al. 2015, Pahl-Wostl 2015, Abson et al. 2017, IPBES research to local contexts. Initiatives used knowledge 2018). In our case studies, various social and ecological crises, dissemination feedbacks, via awareness-raising and communication together with the collapse of the USSR, and an institutionalized strategies (Fig. 6), to influence stakeholders in the wider system, lack of interest in environmental issues (Otto et al. 2011), provided e.g., political leaders, the general public, and consumers. However, windows of opportunity for the emergence of management initiatives differed in their approach to dissemination of internally approaches that differed in at least three ways from the state- Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

Fig. 9. Submodel unpacking causal dynamics influencing the activity rate of wetland restoration initiatives in Belarus. Entrenched socio-cultural legacies of indifference and carelessness regarding the negative impacts of some users on wetlands were identified as a driver of environmental disturbance and degradation. All three cases sought, therefore, to shape public attitudes through a variety of direct awareness-raising and knowledge dissemination activities, and/or through indirect use of power, e.g., refusing to purchase unripe berries in order to affect change in picking behaviors. Brand visibility also influenced the number and types of users.

centric, top-down approaches of conventional wetlands Skryhan 2019). Reflexive learning processes sought to integrate management in Belarus (Figs. 4 and 5). First, social and ecological multiple types of knowledge obtained through experimentation, functions of wetlands were integrated, and management research, and development, experts, formal participation alternatives sought actively to deliver win-win outcomes. In processes, and state-compelled monitoring efforts. In our cases, contrast, state-centric, top-down approaches tend to dichotomize knowledge obtained from international experiences was carefully wetlands management as either resource extraction/use or assessed and adapted to local contexts, while active experimental biodiversity conservation/protection, managed through difficult programs shaped the emergence of innovative approaches that trade-offs (Falkenmark 2004, McShane et al. 2011). leveraged support across science-policy-industry interfaces. Second, in response to knowledge constraints, the studied Third, crisis-driven windows of opportunity enabled private- and wetlands initiatives adopted a learning-oriented mind-set in civil-sector stakeholders to establish themselves as legitimate response to perceived risks and uncertainties (Fig. 8). This actors in wetland restoration, actively participating in decision contrasts with the top-down flows of information that otherwise making and coordinating roles. This indicates a partial typify environmental governance and management in state- redistribution of power and responsibilities in wetlands centric, top-down contexts (Elbakidze et al. 2018, Shkaruba and management systems. New stakeholders were able to further Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

adapt the system from within by including new perspectives, Along with new arenas for being seen, international contexts knowledge, and inputs from a range of other nongovernmental provided new ways of “seeing” in terms of inspiration, new ideas, stakeholders, including private enterprise, and through their and alternate interpretations for initiatives (Fig. 5). This may be eventual participation in regulatory reform processes. Although generally useful for bottom-up wetlands initiatives in order to supporting findings in other contexts (e.g., Raik et al. 2008, Ruíz overcome habituated blindness to the unique qualities of local et al. 2011) and partly in line with recent results from Belarus wetlands. (Niedziałkowski and Shkaruba 2018), these results contrast with earlier studies in Belarus, which highlight the exclusion of Constraints nongovernmental stakeholders from environmental governance We identified several sets of path dependent constraints shaping and an increasing concentration of power around elites, the emergence of more integrated, adaptive approaches to preventing institutional reform (Grischenko et al. 2006, wetland restoration in Belarus. First, institutional and regulatory Kluvánková-Oravská et al. 2009). frameworks surrounding wetland restoration in Belarus were perceived to be resistant to change. These frameworks remained Our results also show that the emergence of more integrated rooted in a state-centric history, and were poorly equipped to approaches to wetlands management was influenced by other integrate the active participation of private and civil sector actors. changes in the broader institutional context, including Belarus’s This supports findings regarding environmental management increased integration with the international community, where from other state-centric, top-down contexts (e.g., Werners et al. participatory norms are widely adopted (Figs. 5 and 6), e.g., EU 2009, Costanza and Liu 2014). Although underdeveloped civil cross-border and Eastern Neighbourhood policies, river basin co- society institutions are a recognized threat to national sustainable operations, and Belarus’s ratification of the Aarhus, Ramsar, development, reform processes remain inconsistent and direct Espoo, and Bern Conventions. A similar influence of controls continue to be concentrated in the hands of government international institutions on domestic environmental policy has authorities (Republic of Belarus 2004), which suffer from poor been observed in other state-centric, top-down contexts, e.g., horizontal coordination (Shkaruba and Kireyeu 2013). China (Mol and Carter 2006). National sustainable development Responsibilities for wetlands are divided across several strategies also explicitly endorse the strategic development of civil governmental agencies, often pursuing heterogeneous, conflicting society, specifically regarding enhanced roles for domestic agendas. Our findings showed that wetlands initiatives sponsored environmental NGOs, as well as outlining a need for institutional by one authority could therefore be perceived as impinging on the transformation regarding private ownership and entrepreneurship mandate of another, risking interagency acrimony. Consequently, (Republic of Belarus 2004, 2015). For example, our case studies the support of one authority could constrain the support of indicated that privatization of state-owned capital, often another, impeding management efforts at integration at lower otherwise associated with adverse outcomes in post-Soviet levels. This suggests that the establishment of flexible links (sensu transitions (e.g., Berberoglu 2003, Azarova et al. 2017, Brik and Olsson et al. 2007, Pahl-Wostl 2015) between government Shestakovskyi 2020), and the partial deregulation of state price- authorities is a potentially important institutional intervention setting regimes further enabled private stakeholders to emerge as supporting wetland restoration in poorly coordinated state- new actors in wetland restoration (Figs. 7A and 7B). Taken centric, top-down contexts. together, these dynamics suggest an increased recognition of the need for improved cross-sectoral and multilevel integration in Despite some reforms, governmental regulatory systems were environmental governance in Belarus. Our case studies suggest, consistently described in our results as excessively onerous, for example, that development of private-civil-public sector opaque, and inflexible (Figs. 5–9). Regulatory control systems partnerships may offer a scaling-up factor for integrated, adaptive directly and indirectly steered wetlands planning, implementation, wetland restoration in state-centric, top-down contexts. and learning processes, thereby constraining core feedback dynamics relating to integrated, adaptive management Integration with international projects and actors afforded approaches. Echoing similar findings in China (Gaudreau and Belarusian wetlands initiatives legitimacy, and embedded them in Cao 2015), new private- and civil-sector wetlands actors in Belarus new contexts and networks that provided otherwise largely must expend considerable human and financial resources inaccessible channels to influential international actors, e.g., large navigating layers of government regulation while dealing with NGOs and foreign research organizations. In line with Falaleeva tremendous power asymmetries in favor of the state. and Rauschmayer (2013) and Zenchanka (2017), we therefore Furthermore, active management measures (particularly those identify international organizations as important agents of involving restoration or construction activities) encountered change in wetland restoration in Belarus (Figs. 5–9). International many regulatory obstacles. These findings suggest that the partners provide important inputs (financial, knowledge, emergence of more integrated and adaptive approaches to technological) that are otherwise often unavailable (Republic of wetland restoration in strongly state-centric, top-down contexts Belarus 2004, 2015). The domestic affiliates of large-scale, well- may be constrained by the lack of specialized bureaucratic financed, international organizations may be of particular knowledge necessary to efficiently navigate regulatory complexity importance in strongly state-centric, top-down contexts in this (e.g., Shkaruba et al. 2017). respect, as they appear to more easily bypass regulatory restrictions that otherwise hinder international partnerships. Given manifold direct and indirect regulatory constraints, and Governmental decision makers were also perceived to be more the strictly nonpartisan political stance new actors were obliged motivated to support high-profile projects (Fig. 6). Further to maintain, the degree to which real power was redistributed in support, and inputs, could thereby be leveraged, e.g., through our cases remains debatable. Nevertheless, some nongovernmental domestic cofinancing (Fig. 7A), to drive emergent feedback loops. actors persistently contest the administrative practices Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

constraining nongovernmental participation in environmental viability of production-focused initiatives. Even where management. This indicates that nongovernmental actors not nongovernmental actors are able to set their own prices, low only organize efforts toward more integrated and adaptive forms domestic purchasing power may limit commercial viability. of management within existing conventional frameworks (e.g., Our results indicate that adequate capital inputs were key to a Garmestani and Benson 2013), but also actively try to adapt number of virtuous feedback loops, optimizing activity rates via existing frameworks via evolutionary feedback cycles driven by efficiency improvements, reducing delays and thereby costs, quality outcomes and perceived legitimacy (Figs. 5–9). Such increasing the perceived commercial viability of activity, and adaptations are facilitated by awareness-raising, directed promoting support and potential inputs. Technological/fixed- lobbying, and, as legitimacy grows, participation in regulatory capital intensity may therefore represent an important constraint reform processes. However, feedbacks to national level to more integrated, adaptive approaches to wetland restoration institutions remain tenuous. in contexts where capital inputs are less readily accessible, such Second, underlying these regulatory constraints are a set of socio- as Belarus. Although some capital investments are unavoidable, cultural legacies perceived by our interviewees as having multiple, e.g., to meet standards requirements in new markets, large one- indirect negative influences on support for more integrated and off costs may be a stumbling block bringing planned activities to adaptive wetlands initiatives (Figs. 6, 8, 9). Broadly, these legacies a halt. refer to entrenched attitudes of passivity, circumspection, Fourth, our findings show that institutional and economic distrust, and a widespread indifference to environmental issues, legacies from the Soviet and post-Soviet eras constrain the pervading society. The private sector, for example, is widely availability of knowledge relevant to sustainable wetlands regarded as a refuge for “scoundrels” and the civil sector for management activities, many of which rely on tacit and/or “meddlers.” Local people were perceived as generally indifferent traditional forms of knowledge (Fig. 8). The ability to accumulate to new initiatives and the utility of public input from formal multiple kinds of relevant knowledge may therefore be a key participatory processes in our cases was said to be zero. Our results factor toward the emergence of more integrated, adaptive in these respects recall many recent studies (Otto et al. 2011, World initiatives for wetland management in Belarus and contexts with Values Survey 2014, Shkaruba et al. 2015, Teorell et al. 2018, Bui- similar institutional/economic legacies, particularly where Wrzosińska 2019, Brik and Shestakovskyi 2020), which identify initiatives center around relatively novel concepts, e.g., ecological widespread negativism in Belarus and other former Soviet restoration and circular economy. International experiences are republics. Grischenko et al. (2006) contend that, outside of important in this respect. However, in line with earlier studies continued conformism, authoritarian regimes offer no (Kluvánková-Oravská et al. 2009, Elbakidze et al. 2013, Falaleeva possibilities for social adaptation. However, our results show and Rauschmayer 2013), our results indicate that international heterogeneity amongst actors in this respect, with interviewees ideas and practices require careful adaptation to ensure suitability identifying the lack of indifference in certain key individuals or to local biophysical and governance contexts. groups as an important factor in the success of their initiatives. Also, the existential threat to rural communities posed by Three key management strategies toward sustainable wetlands in depopulation (e.g., Nedelkin et al. 2017) was said to reduce state-centric, top-down contexts opposition toward wetland restoration initiatives when contextualized as beneficial for local residents through job Perception management creation or conservation of important local natural resources. Our results indicate the importance of developing a flexible and Despite local people having little power in strongly state-centric, adaptive approach to framing problems and solutions to identify top-down contexts, our findings suggest the importance of and promote confluences of interest and synergies amongst the avoiding local opposition or conflicts because these can have heterogeneous viewpoints and objectives of relevant stakeholders unpredictable impacts. At best, such conflicts might result in (Figs. 5 and 6). National environmental objectives in Belarus are delays. At worst, they may jeopardize the support of local often framed in the context of other policy objectives, e.g., authorities and lead to political difficulties for decision makers at economic growth, energy security (Republic of Belarus 2004, higher levels. 2015, Grischenko et al. 2006). Alignment of wetland restoration initiatives with public sector interests is therefore largely Third, our interviewees referred to a number of specific economic synonymous with the inclusion of explicit social and/or economic constraints, including the lack of state funding for ecological objectives (Figs. 5 and 6). Such alignment is a key process for initiatives, lack of an entrepreneurial sector, and inaccessibility deriving support, knowledge, resources, and legitimacy for new of loans (Figs. 7A and 7B). Opaque regulatory requirements, and initiatives. This requires adaptive leadership, especially given the concomitant rent-seeking behavior, were perceived to constrain lack of government coordination. or deter international sponsorship, despite availability. Economic sanctions and fines were perceived as being arbitrarily meted out, Echoing previous findings (e.g., Pahl-Wostl 2015, Dawson et al. with civil society actors especially vulnerable as well as being 2017), our results indicate the importance of positioning wetland exposed to a high taxation burden. Although centralized restoration at a cross-sectoral nexus between, e.g., science and procurement processes in state-centric, top-down contexts such business, or civil society and business. Our studied cases offered as a Belarus may shield wetlands initiatives from some of the industrial partners experimental platforms to explore innovative uncertainty of international markets, they were also perceived to concepts. However, cross-sectoral interfaces remain difficult to curtail adaptive learning feedbacks related to market experience navigate, requiring experienced leadership to establish and and thereby to reduce their self-reliance. Additionally, state price- maintain long-term partnerships. Although commercial viability setting regimes may inadvertently constrain the commercial is a key factor driving many such partnerships (de Blaeij et al. Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

2011), this is typically difficult to prove, especially in early stages, in the external decision-making environment, outside of the direct and depends on the development trajectories of many internal control of initiatives. Along with good preparation and timely and external factors, e.g., learning curves, markets, etc. decision making, the diversification of planned activities and outputs promoted flexibility and adaptability. Diversification as Garnering adequate support entails managing the perceived a risk management strategy integrates a broad range of objectives, legitimacy of wetlands problems, and of the actors proposing to novel ideas, and the multiple perspectives of different solve them. Legitimacy enables agency in otherwise contested stakeholders, thus promoting alignment of interests and domains (Bulkeley 2012). Similar to Deegan (2009) and Olsson objectives (Figs. 5, 6, 7B). A diverse portfolio of initiatives, tools, et al. (2004), the background and professional circumstances of and approaches provides alternative pathways to key objectives, leadership figures provide initial legitimacy for nonstate wetlands new arenas for brand visibility, and opportunities for waste management actors in state-centric, top-down contexts. minimization. On the downside, diversification often necessitates Legitimacy is subsequently conferred by a variety of feedback involvement of potentially conflicting interests, places additional processes, including by association with other legitimate actors, demands on existing technology/capital inputs, and increases the particularly state authorities, and by achieving successful leadership challenge. outcomes (Figs. 5, 6, 7B, 8). This corroborates Ruíz et al. (2011) regarding the dynamic nature of legitimacy in wetlands Constraints relating to technology/fixed capital intensity expose management. Donation-reliant initiatives are particularly wetlands initiatives to financial risks associated with large dependent on legitimizing strategies to ensure continuous investments. The lack of a well-developed entrepreneurial sector, financial support. Even financially self-reliant initiatives need to accustomed to engaging with such risks, may compound this manage perceptions of their legitimacy in order to obtain constraint in strongly state-centric, top-down contexts such as permissions, as well as to attract staff, partners, and consumers. Belarus. Our cases demonstrated innovative strategies to overcome such hurdles, including establishment of nonprofit Communications and awareness-raising strategies raised the organizations to assume capital risks, substitution, e.g., using visibility of wetlands “brands” through development of a broad human labor instead of machines, and steady reinvestment of set of targeted narratives concerning problem-framing, place, profits into a continuous R&D program. activities, and organizations, as well as outcomes and outputs (Fig. 6). Identification of unique selling points, e.g., innovative Learning and knowledge management management approaches, charismatic species, provides a key Knowledge adequacy played a central role in the system dynamics focus for the development of creative, interactive, brand-focused of studied wetlands initiatives, closing core feedback loops communications and awareness-raising strategies. Beyond typical influencing adequacy of plans, legitimacy and support, as well as media campaigns, examples from case studies included field trips, connecting successful outcomes to institutional and regulatory expert-guided tours, and wetlands-themed festivals. High public reform processes. This supports current theories concerning the visibility may indirectly support sustainable wetlands importance of robust knowledge management mechanisms and management in state-centric, top-down contexts by legitimizing the integration of learning and experimentation into institutions initiatives, increasing political pressure via public opinion, and policies to support the emergence of sustainable governance providing public relations opportunities for partner organizations, and management arrangements (Pahl-Wostl 2015, Popa et al. and through long-term educational impacts. 2015, Abson et al. 2017). Studied initiatives were able to leverage Strongly vertical hierarchies throughout public sector authorities, their growing knowledge, and the legitimacy it conferred, to and other key stakeholder organizations, in combination with influence the behavior of other actors, either directly, e.g., via relatively nontransparent regulatory frameworks, provide purchasing standards, or indirectly, through awareness-raising individual decision makers, e.g., ministers, with considerable and/or lobbying campaigns. Additionally, leaders of successful personal influence as gatekeepers in Belarus and other strongly initiatives amassed expert knowledge, and were thus invited to state-centric, top-down contexts (e.g., Kluvánková-Oravská et al. participate in policy reform processes, while successful practices 2009). This study shows that the cultivation of personal were adopted as formal benchmarks. These findings indicate relationships with gatekeepers, or otherwise tailoring multiloop learning cycles (e.g., Argyris and Schön 1978, 1995, communications and awareness-raising activities toward them, is Johannessen et al. 2019), which are central to integrated, adaptive an efficient strategy (Fig. 6). The support of such individuals in governance and management theories (Pahl-Wostl 2015). They strongly state-centric, top-down contexts may provide a key also illustrate the scalable returns and positive spill-over effects source of legitimacy, ensuring alignment of plans and objectives (Sterman 2000) that investments in adaptive learning cycles and with current policy interpretations, delivering support at efficient forms of knowledge dissemination may have for wetland subordinate levels, and consequently inputs and permissions. restoration in state-centric, top-down contexts. However, several However, gatekeepers may also be influenced by competing authors warn that emergent processes, e.g., transformational interests, e.g., lobbying for peat mining, and changes in personal learning, cannot be effectively planned or directed (e.g., Kurtz preferences. Personal relationships are also highly sensitive to and Snowden 2003, Miller and Page 2007, Tosey et al. 2011). In disruption. Sudden changes in leadership may lead to line with Shkaruba et al. (2015), our findings indicate that strictly reinterpretation of policies and strategies, thus altering the degree controlled information flows, strong top-down structures, to which wetlands interests align. indifferent socio-cultural norms, and intellectual property issues present significant obstacles to effective knowledge dissemination, Risk management and to transformational, learning-driven feedback loops for more Apart from some technical risks due to inadequate knowledge, integrated and adaptive approaches to wetland restoration and most risks identified by our cases related to systemic uncertainty management in Belarus. Ecology and Society 26(1): 8 https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol26/iss1/art8/

Structured adaptive learning cycles are useful for managing [1] Although widely perceived as successful in the longer term, each complexity and mitigating risks, providing effective “safe-to-fail” of these initiatives suffered several set-backs along the way for a strategies, particularly in rigid bureaucracies (Heifetz et al. 2009, number of reasons, including insufficient support, inadequate Cilliers et al. 2013). Small, early, inexpensive mistakes, for knowledge, planning failures, and experimental errors. The result example, help complex systems escape from less productive causal loop diagrams capture the dynamics of these failures, i.e., outcomes and converge upon more productive ones (Miller and as the inverse of any normative concept. For example, where the Page 2007). In addition to such utility, our findings also indicate alignment of objectives with those of other stakeholders was that small, early positive outcomes from learning cycles are shown to contribute to the adequacy of support, the inverse is important to drive key support feedback loops by reducing also true: where initiatives did not clearly align their objectives perceived risks and promoting the perceived legitimacy of with those of other stakeholders, they also generally failed to initiatives. In line with Dawson et al. (2017), these results suggest garner sufficient support, which jeopardized their ability to obtain that success factors for the emergence of more integrated, adequate inputs for implementation of planned activities. adaptive wetland restoration initiatives in state-centric, top-down [2] CLDs provide a concise format for describing complex contexts may include reducing the dimensionality of planned interconnected system structures and behavioral directionality. interventions and commencing implementation of smaller CLDs use arrows to indicate direct causal relationships between interventions as early as practicable. independent and dependent variables. These relationships can either be in the same direction, represented by a positive (+) sign, CONCLUSIONS or in the opposing direction, represented by a negative (-) sign. Natural resource governance and management regimes are Thus, if independent variable A connects to dependent variable emergent phenomena embedded in the broader social-ecological B by an arrow with a plus (+) sign, the underlying logic of the systems from within which they emerge. Our analysis of wetland CLD is that an increase (decrease) in A’s behavior will lead to an restoration initiatives in Belarus indicates that many aspects increase (decrease) in B’s behavior. If the arrow connecting A to associated with integrated, adaptive approaches to natural B is accompanied by a negative (-) sign then the CLD indicates resource governance and management may, to some degree, that an increase (decrease) in A will lead to a decrease (increase) emerge in strongly state-centric, top-down contexts. Nevertheless, in B. we identified a broad set of interconnected, path-dependent constraints that continue to shape approaches to wetland restoration and management in Belarus. Many of these Responses to this article can be read online at: constraints were related to institutional, socio-cultural, https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/issues/responses. biophysical, and economic legacies of the Soviet and post-Soviet php/12139 periods. Interactions among constraints over time were, however, shown to create windows of opportunity, e.g., crises, for the emergence of wetland restoration approaches that contrasted with state-centric, top-down approaches otherwise common in Acknowledgments: Belarus. Emergent approaches were enabled by the increased This work was supported by FORMAS [grant numbers 2011-1737 influence of domestic nongovernmental actors and the and 2017:1342] to Per Angelstam, by the Swedish Institute [grant international community. However, the successful integration of number 10976/2013] to Marine Elbakidze, and by the EU active nongovernmental actors into wetland restoration remained Erasmus+Program (Jean Monnet Projects - grant 587697) to strongly constrained by state-centric, top-down institutional and Anton Shkaruba. regulatory contexts. Other key constraints were availability of knowledge, financing difficulties, and the technology/capital intensity of sustainability initiatives. Three key enabling strategies Data Availability: were (1) perception management, e.g., regarding stakeholder The data/code that support the findings of this study are available perceptions of the legitimacy of nongovernmental participants, on request from the corresponding author, LD. Anonymized (2) risk management, e.g., large capital investments, and (3) intermediate data is available in an Electronic Appendix, published learning and knowledge management, e.g., efficient forms of with this article. 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The Jeĺnia bog restoration (hereafter Case Bogs) initiative commenced in 1999, coordinated by local ornithological NGO APB Birdlife Belarus, due the importance of Jeĺnia for birdlife. The area provides both breeding sites for birds rare to Belarus, and an important stop-over site for migrating cranes (Grus grus L.) and geese in spring and autumn, which forage on adjacent fields and use the large bog as a safe resting place. Management efforts have primarily focused on delivering ecological outcomes. Bog restoration has occurred at the local scale, although communication activities occur across local-to-national scales.

Initial funding, provided by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Royal Society for Protection of Birds (UK NGO), led to the construction of 18 dams by 2007. Volunteer labour camps, held annually between 2007-2014, as well as a series of new projects from 2009, led to a further 50 dams being built and later repaired. A visitor’s centre, and eco-trails were also constructed to support environmental education and bird-watching and fishing tourism activities. These latter projects were financed initially through the GEF and by Coca-Cola, with later contributions through UNDP.

1.2. Case 2: Birds At present, Zvanets and Sporovo protected areas are among the largest natural fen mire peatlands in Europe at 15,000ha and 18,000 ha and form Important Bird Areas (Republic of Belarus 2012), supporting remaining breeding populations of globally threatened species (e.g., Acrocephalus paludicola L.). These two protected areas are located in south-west Belarus, and have been subjects of restoration efforts since 2006. Large-scale peatland fires in 1999 and 2002 triggered a peatland restoration and management initiative (hereafter - Case Birds). Initial objectives focused on re-elevation of ground water levels, which have prevented further fires, restored ecological integrity for bird conservation, and allowed resumption of local livelihoods and recreational activities (UNDP 2016a).

Peatland restoration activities were supported by UNDP and funded by the Global Environment Fund, and has been managed as a public-private partnership, through an NGO (civil sector). A major achievement has been the approval by the Belarusian Council of Ministers of the Strategy for Sustainable Use and Conservation of Peatlands. This strategy serves to balance national interests in respect of the environment and sustainable economic development, whilst fulfilling commitments under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Ramsar Convention. Activities occur at the local scale but are organised at the regional scale. Permanent sources of funding were required to maintain wetlands openness in order to retain functionality for biodiversity. This requirement led to subsequent initiatives to develop and demonstrate a feasible circular model for wetlands management, using the outputs of management measures (e.g. biomass for energy production, reeds for construction materials) in order to finance continued management. Initiatives have included development of commercial enterprises using wetland resources leading to local job creation.

1.3. Case 3: Berries Aržanica enterprise (arzhanitsa.by; hereafter - Case Berries) represents a successful and unique private small-scale enterprise based on value-added production of wild foods harvested from wetlands – mainly berries (Oxycoccus), but also mushrooms. Its primary focus is delivering economic and social benefits (e.g. developing a profitable business) but the firm explicitly aims to promote wetland sustainability by e.g. participating in internationally-sponsored wetlands conservation management initiatives (UNDP 2016b) and implementing indirect ecological objectives in order to secure a sustainable supply of wild foods. The firm employs 20-30 people and has been operating in the Belarusian market since 1992, developing innovative technologies to produce a diverse range of natural, high-quality wild foods. Early technical developments occurred in collaboration with the national Institute for Nutrition. The firm was initially supported by local district authorities and provided with public-owned facilities, which were later privatised. Direct production activity occurs mainly at the local scale, in the small town of Hlubokaje near Jeĺnia bog, although berries are sourced locally-nationally (Fig.1). Sugar is sourced from centralised, state-based commodity procurement agencies. Marketing is focused at the national scale, although international demand is growing, primarily in neighbouring countries.

Appendix 2. Individual case dynamics This appendix contains causal loop diagrams (CLDs) detailing the dynamics of each of the three wetlands restoration and management case studies. Individual direct causal relationships were identified in the raw data and then integrated into networks of causal relationships (i.e. CLDs). These networks were then thematically aggregated within cases, i.e. highly similar concepts were aggregated and conceptually similar dynamics were grouped into rough themes using open coding techniques. These themes correspond largely to the core processes and key drivers identified in the final analysis. The CLDs presented in this appendix illustrate this thematic coding process, although there is considerable overlap between the CLDs, with many concepts repeated throughout the figures (i.e. these concepts bridge across the thematic groups).

Interview transcripts/ Interviews/ generate Raw Data Field Excursions Field notes

Open-coding identify Individual direct cause-eﬀect relationships

Integrated networks Qualitative system integrate & aggregate of cause-eﬀect Intermediate dynamics relationships (i.e. CLDs) results review & augment per case Methods

analyse Key system dynamics Group modelling review & augment per case workshops

Comparative analyse Aggregated CLDs Final analysis of key system dynamics results across cases

Figure 3 (from main paper). The CLDs in this appendix describe intermediate results, i.e. integrated networks of cause-effect relationships per case, prior to analysis of key system dynamics and across case aggregation. It is important for readers to keep in mind that these CLDs represent an intermediate step in our analytical process, i.e. prior to subsequent aggregation procedures across the cases to identify the core dynamics, and have not been “cleaned up” for publication. These intermediate data are provided as an appendix to allow readers to more easily understand how the raw data has been transformed towards the final results, and for readers to glean additional insights from more detailed accounts of the dynamics of different wetlands restoration and management initiatives. Adequacy of Support ***NGO Fire damage and Govt investment continued consequent in fire fighting + Adequacy of Funds existence problems + + Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions strict allocation Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge of budget only for + Successful fire fighting measures outcomes (certain ministries) + + Implementation/ Activity rate Perceived Influence of trade-offs with Lack of govt NGO (power) + + Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms peat mining coordination + over project Size of planning & Role of implementation + Available Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use + NGO knowledge + + + delay + + conflicting (all kinds agendas/ NGOs Ability to Change opinions of support) Local interests/ influence of key players/ indifference opinions key actors society in - (incl. authorities) delay + general State lack - of willingness Locals - - to act (on concern environ. issues) about + wetland Broad support Adoption of Academy at many levels Participatory + plan of Science of govt process norm initiation + + Problems + + resulting poor + + + + state of wetlands permission to + Initial develop & Experts/ involvement of - funds diff actors in + implement Orgs/ NGOs plans (i.e. + discussions Public permission to + + + support of spend avail. + consultation central auths. funds) + + Flexible, iterative Permits Implementation Plan planning + + issued approval process - reporting of support of + Need for + + problems/ Ministry of Nat. Res + multiple Required law-breaking + & Env. Protection delay + perspectives permits etc + - + - Conflict resolution + + Bureaucratic Management + + in favour of project support of processes plan Complexity Conflicts local auths. - + Institutionalised + “Culture of + Funding silence” applications Avail. - Choice of sponsors - Involvement of Avail. State + NGOs funding for NGO “try - Support of nature protection not to go local land-owners, into politics” NGO partnerships tenants, community State chooses + with political orgs. responsible - NGO good + + NGO + cooperation Formulation of - with auths. + project plans to Alignment of NGO/ include social Econ./Social + aspects dev. priority + project agenda/ goals Avail. funding + with for business dev./ focus at state level ***NGO’s cont. current state community dev./ existence + objectives gender issues/ + democracy dev./ etc etc etc - Access to Strictness market/ of Belarus Private demand regulation sector Production Quality of optimisation management - paradigm + inputs + + Private + - Intern. ownership Strength of National + Designation/ of Nat. Res. + Nature recognition/ Natural protection legislation/ resource etc extraction

Figure A2:1. Case Bogs, Theme: Institutional and regulatory frameworks Adequacy of Support learn of + Minister not UN + Latvian wanting to + Adequacy of Funds project festivals be embarrassed Wetland support from (inspiration) function/ Original - Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions executive health + idea of council Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge - local director + + + + to apply for Decline in Royal Society Implementation/ Activity rate Birds effort and + funds funds invested Funding Royal Ornithological Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms in local festival Applications + Society (ENG) concerns + Volunteer Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use camps initiate Dutch project ministry + + Robust, transparent, Dams etc/ BELARUS financial + restoration + + institutions profile of Festival work [Tax, financial festival + + Identification of + donation incentives] Avail. + + drains/ plan + Choice of + + + sponsors + + Avail. + External Experts funding - GEF/ EU/ Formulation of partners/ + - UNDP project plans to sponsors Available PR return on Coca Cola + Funds - investment routes funds include social Overall + + aspects need of thru UNDP + + Project becomes Avail. manual + series of small labour UNDP projects, each with Special - + Avail. funding + + + excavator funds twinned social-ecol. - for business dev./ + + - bog – risk for + goals machines + Coca Cola community dev./ + + Need for avail. funds gender issues/ small-scale small excavators democracy dev./ Number of experiments + in Belarus NGOs Support of etc etc etc applications willingness Coca Cola Implementation + + - to act + Support of - + Efforts of + C.C CEO income + Project + State potential Leadership + Avail. funds Advertising funding NGO/ for nature - Volunteers per source reserve admin. + project need Permanent of financing + funding for + + admin + Ministry of + - - recreational Environ + Reserve initiates admin fishers State Nature reserve Involvement of capacity administration BL NGOs Project Plans to satisfy state + + requirements Ministry of + Avail. State State lack Econ./Social State chooses Natural funding for of willingness dev. priority Initial NGO to be Resources nature protection to act focus at state funds responsible level -

Figure A2:2. Case Bogs, Theme: Financing, funds, inputs + international UNDP funds collaborations [e.g. with Birdlife + idea of EU funds Adequacy of Support International] local volunteer “keepers” of + + + lack of support of Adequacy of Funds important bird Keeper local authorities habitat areas + Decline Adequacy of projects Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions in Birds Contacts/ + Website for idea to Network Local + Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge - Local keeper registration Nature reserve/ focus on + enthusiasts keepers & communication protection status - local Keepers (& NGO) + + value-added Implementation/ Activity rate perceived as + Institutionalised + production trouble-makers local “Culture of + Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms silence”/ production Illegal activities/ - Fear of reprisal/ + reporting of Disturbance Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use “sit down and shut up” problems/ + - of nature Lack of consideration law-breaking (noise, fires, + of needs of specific Ability to etc Use of + Keepers + garbage, etc) bird species in pick + swamp + Cranberries trained to/ management plan - buggies intended to + Local auths. report problems/ organised prohibit employees + + infractions etc - fishing learn of Minister not from complaining Visitors + + + + Latvian wanting to stick to + UN + + festivals be embarrassed + - paths + project (inspiration) support from Local Accessibility + special + executive use + + Local bosses **Wetland place for council + Tourist + of swamp income local don’t want health berries + infrastructure potential livelihoods + trouble Regeneration (esp. paths) + for nature + + + rate of fish pops delay reserve admin. + - emotional effort and + Idea for Huge flocks experience + funds invested + + Festival + of cranes in local festival - recreational + Crane/ fishers cranberries + + pun Big Fish + + Festival district Crane- + + + adopt watching + + crane as Original + symbol Drought Visitors profile of + idea of Peat + + + festival + local director PR - Local concern + + degradation to apply for value + - about wetland - - proximity of + + Royal Society Historical + cranes to educational + funds + valleys + agric. events Wetland towns reforms about cranes international Documentary Attraction for function/ Water Popularity/ + - + delay + Authorities Experts who visitors film Coca Cola health table visibility of - + provide can lead Yelnya “brand” Drainage + + Funding free transport educational - Yelnya as + Applications to crane events events - unifying + Fires + + (cranes) Volunteers experience/ - Volunteer place camps Royal Ornithological Birds Dams etc/ + + + Society (ENG) concerns restoration + + + work + + + Social/cultural + + + event + Identification of + - + Available - + drains/ plan need of Diversity Funds - manual Locals & Experts Avail. + of volunteers labour + outsiders + Special (artists, mixing and - excavator musicians,etc) + learning/ + - bog – risk for + creating avail. machines - small excavators Dutch in Belarus ministry diversification/ break project into small + + + pieces difficulty in obtaining Number of sufficient finance for sub-projects new + projects + - projects/ ideas Size of + Size of project + the bog + + Initial state + sponsorship/ admin Co-funding opportunities funds Flexible, iterative nature Management plan of management plan Possibility to + formal/ official document attract sponsors + acknowledgement of + NGO and project

Figure A2:3. Case Bogs, Theme: Implementation, activity rate Suitability of - Vegetation + composition Fire damage Frequency & + for supporting + Drought Intensity of Visibility of biodiversity + Fires delay Yelnya value of bog Climate Coca Cola strict allocation + Govt investment - investment of budget only for in fire fighting - in hydrological fire fighting measures water - balance (certain ministries) level PR (i.e. prevention) + in bog delay value + + + + + + Realisation that + - + entire bog is at Qual. & Quant. + Govt water ponds Lack of govt risk Attraction for Wetland embarrassment/ & fire lookout coordination advertisement Coca Cola Ecosystem) - anger towers delay in newspapers + - + Volunteer + Birds + camps delay - Drainage - + - need for fire Prioritisation - fighting investment of perceived Royal Ornithological - + + threat Society (ENG) concerns + - + GOAL: + Save the bog! special + valleys + Huge flocks + place for Accessibility of cranes Hurry! berries Dams etc/ + of swamp restoration Historical Peat work agric. degradation + reforms consideration of - emotional + + + - impacts on specific experience + species + + Crane/ + Local indirect negative cranberries Idea for + use impacts of measures + local pun Festival livelihoods on specific, key species + Cranberries +

Mushrooms + + - + implementation of key + measures to save + species the bog

Ecological + Ecol. Recreational Disturbance/ complexity Fishing degradation + - + Organised Demand fishing Private sector - Alignment of Access to Strictness protection with - Soviet market/ of Belarus current goals Union demand regulation of power hierarchy Adequacy of Support Investment - + Adequacy of Funds + + + Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions Production Quality of BL optimisation management Profit + protection paradigm + Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge inputs + + + + Nature Implementation/ Activity rate + + Natural protection resource + - Internat. Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms extraction Areas of Designation/ - international recognition/ Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use Private significance legislation/ ownership Non-extractive + delay etc + + of Nat. Res. benefits avail. for power elite - (e.g. hunting, - + recreation) + Monocultures + - General Qual. & Quant. of Natural capital (biodiv./ES/etc) Side-effects/ pollutants - (e.g. of chemical usage)

Figure A2:4. Case Bogs, Theme: Ecological system, Land use + Coca Cola ease for need of Business goals Coca Cola good PR of Coca Cola to route funds thru UNDP - Public perception Royal Society of Coca Cola as + + for Birds NGO + + Adequacy of Support environmentally Keepers + + responsible actor GEF/ EU/ PR return on initiate Adequacy of Funds + UNDP + + investment project Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions Coca Cola UNDP Conflicts + + avail. + funds funds + - + funds Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge Problems/ + infractions Support of + + NGO role Coca Cola Conflict resolution Implementation/ Activity rate + to maintain/ in favour of project support of + estab. relations + + + central auths. Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms with partners + Efforts of + + + + Advertising PL + Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use + Implementation Support of + permission to + Permits + + C.C CEO + Permanent develop & + etc funding for + implement Excursions + admin plans (i.e. + Ministry of + - to expose Development + delay permission to + Environ spend avail. (potential) partners of management Reserve + + Positive experience/ initiates funds) to Yelnya connection for visitors plan admin Nature reserve Required administration Bureaucratic + permits Yelnya + processes Yelnya in “specialness” internationalisation + + - + + international + Emotional focus + Inspections benefits + exhibition Area - - - + management (good feeling Inspections are not NGO petitioning + + plan Local from taking Willingness to state authority ministry/vice-minister indifference part) take part international Tourists/ awareness support of Knowledge Visitors learn of + local auths. - - of international Latvian + festivals + festivals/ tourism/ Locals - + + (inspiration) conflicting Broad support + + etc + + make a - at many levels + agendas **Wetland fuss + + Minister not + lack of support of Support of of different function/ international + Support of + wanting to local authorities ALL state authorities health research local land-owners, - + + + Strength/ be embarrassed + authorities - + tenants, community Popularity of UN Support of project Support of SES Problems Yelnya “brand” + vice-minister + perceived visitors with Yelnya + + + Local - + importance of effort and Avail. + resulting from + + + funds invested + Choice of + income poor state land-uses project vision clear benefits in local festival sponsors of wetlands in conflict local berry provides of taking part Crane with project + Visibility + production real solutions relative to needs + festival + NGO good (peat mining) of Yelnya/ + to problems project Support of - cooperation - with auths. high profile support from + visitors + + + + executive Health of + “Nothing could have Popular + council Wetlands Focal Strength of taking NGO partnerships made it worse” + species Project Narrative part with political orgs. + + profile of + + NGO “try + + + festival - + + not to go Local into politics” NGO’s cont. + public statements support existence + “necessary to save Need Yelnya” - + Active creation/ + + of partners/ diversity of + + Local + focusing work/ + help key people + use “what is unique/ NGO agenda + involved interesting?” in harmony with Multiplicity govt. goals/ agenda - Mobilisation of of interests Accessibility people and - of swamp resources + Influence of Water Support of State NGO over inaction + table authorities Identification project + - + + planning & Community of unique - + + + value/ (selling implementation pride in Dams to + point) Project Wetlands restore + Change opinions unity/ of key players/ Influence of water balance + key non-NGO consensus Environmental society in Support of + individuals + Development/ + nature of project general planning trajectory Environ. Ministry Outside + + of project Adequacy of Perceived perspective + success of + + + leadership + Difficulty of project envy at - delay management/ other ministries Support of Prevention of delay decision-making Min. for Emergency NGOs Ability to processes - fires - Services/ Min. for influence - Forestry authorities/ Project Problems stemming + + - sponsors/ outcomes + from fires - Acad. of Science/ etc knowledge +

Figure A2:5. Case Bogs, Theme: Support Plans lead to desired + Avail. - + + outcomes outcomes funding Correct + Need for prioritisation small-scale + + Avail. identiﬁcation experiments experts + of amount of + funding required Ecol. complexity of bog + + Implementation

+ - Avail. knowledge Clear understanding + + of what needs to be done + + - availability & - applicability of + Environmental foreign knowledge monitoring Adequacy of Contacts/ Variation in - delay + Network perceptions/opinions of what problems Number of Degree of difference are problem of local context compared - identifiers + to foreign contexts (e.g. diff kinds of bogs)

Strength of + protection Alignment with international status top-down collaborations + + +

BL joins National + Alignment of Presidential International + protection protection with Corruption decree conventions other priorities - + +

Adequacy of Support

BL need/ desire Adequacy of Funds to be part of Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions international community Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge

Implementation/ Activity rate

Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms

Figure A2:6. Case Bogs, Theme: Learning, Knowledge Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use Avail. Strength of funds for rural individual delay Cultural & Young - Avail. socio-econ. + economic people Rural trad. development ties to region moving to depopulation knowledge projects cities

+ + + Avail. Existential + Know-how threat to Inclusion of socio-econ. Commercial Learning villages Degree of + aims for project viability rate personal plans Private (profitability) of + investment finance reed project in region + local support - risk Optimisation (residents, farmers, + agencies, districts, + Implementation + NGOs) for initiatives + Activity + + to save village Project provides rate + equip. for Profitability meadow cutting + + + - + Network of Local business willing + + Permits + involved in partners etc meadow management Financing project at + burgeoning interface between private + econ. & social science and industry partners + + goals biodiversity goals + international Bureaucratic + partners partners + Support Scale-up of authorities Interest of + + Avail. business Contacts + partners community + Whole supply Pressure on + + chain + BL projects to + develop delay “truly” circular Competitiveness reporting econ. model of BL with similar EU projects

perceived - appreciation at Novelty/ + Ministry for innovation innovative + + Leadership value: + approaches + Approval of “economy is an Ministry + Attempts to important aspect Sourcing/ of any environmental maintaining develop circular + project” good relations economic model with Ministry + Visibility Interest at of need for Ministry saving swamps level in presidential project outcomes + + expression of + + interest Avail. support at Ministry Adequacy of Support + Interest + Adequacy of “if needed of District communication only a phone Adequacy of Funds chairperson strategies + call away” Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions

Charismatic/ Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge Popular Targeted + + Focal species Narrative Awareness of Implementation/ Activity rate (Aquatic Warbler) focal species Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms

Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use Figure A2:7. Case Birds, Theme: Support delay + Need to Experience maintain openness of Investment in State orgs - Vegetation/ Biomass + New EU marshes Learning about equipment to activity rate (trees, bushes, regs what else is meet tech. Preference for reeds, etc) + needed to build standards - + business over a system + delay state orgs. Business + + - + Need of access + + activity Learning + to external rate rate Implementation - markets Organisational Investment reliance on + + + (Mowing/grazing Access to requirements activity to + + etc) EU market + + produce profit/ + Optimisation demand for results - biomass Low energy Activity - + Avail. price crisis Lack of Avail. profit + rate State + Scale-up + funds - Need of + financing/ long-term subsidies - + Profitability + + + funding + + + + High cost of biodiversity Interest of Experimentation + Risk to trustworthiness business + rate Ask for preservation of always asking Network of + investment community delay willing Ministry funds - Ministry for funds + partners Project + Perceived Sympathetic + Pressure on + Financing Permits Incomes Attitude of + BL projects to BL willingness etc + administration + & Ministry develop to participate in private + “truly” circular open/ external partners + + + develop econ. model market products from + delay ability/ time Bureaucratic mowing & + international to experiment partners GOAL: partners maintenance - + based on biomass develop circular economic model + Leadership values: - Whole supply + based on swamp - chain resources + “economy is an Avail. Competitiveness + + + important aspect Subsidies Contacts + of BL with similar Support + + of any environmental for EU EU projects Profit of authorities + project” projects pressure burgeoning Need for econ. & social substitute econ. goals activities that - Systems Project provides perspective allow sustainability + + machines Potential for to make reed circular econ. mats + from swamp Dependency of management EU projects on establish - [Sustainability] subsidies non-commercial Private Loan-taking enterprise + Restrictions - finance Project provides to livelihoods Economic risk equip. for - meadow cutting sustainability of EU projects Start-up salaries Exposure to - Local business for staff unpredictable involved in + Avail. price dynamics Know-how meadow management EU projects - + disappear + relative cost when subsidies + end Unpredictable of reed compared socio-econ. to roofing alternative + complexity materials Strength of (e.g. of oil price) Forecasts Investment - Commercial + Econ. Access to of demand case development viability (profitability) of markets (energy) Consumer - Time since reed project demand planning & + + + Perceived implementation feasibility of started current plan Historical Need for state/ demand - + district + + + co-financing - econ. Sudden Sunk feasibility/ change in delay costs cost effectiveness oil price Revise plan + of project business + Scale of on the run + + model investment/ - Adequacy of Support cost of + + delay Willingness Funding necessary to revise Adequacy of Funds infrastructure + partners plan looking for (e.g. boiler) Need for + Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions external new ideas partners Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge - + implementation Risk + Implementation/ Activity rate assessment + delays + Risk Investment + Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms burden Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use Figure A2:8. Case Birds, Theme: Financing, funds, inputs Vegetation Drainage GOAL: Sustainable (trees, bushes, + use of equip. reeds, etc) - Swamp Leadership value: Strength of - health + NGOs expectations individual - wet Cultural & + of what partner Degree of + meadows Over-arching GOAL: economic - orgs SHOULD do personal Maintain ties to region (i.e. Collaboration investment Biodiversity openness of Mowing/ Norms) in region + marshes grazing What NGO is - Competence + etc of partner orgs + prepared to do Revise plan - on the run + Implementation + + - Activities of + + Implementation + partner orgs. Local implementation + Activity rate interest/ support Active delays + (residents, farmers, Management + Need for + agencies, districts, approach Quality & new ideas + + + NGOs) quantity of - + Nature outcomes + + protection + + - NORM - Project Permits + + Management effective etc + Implementation + Diversification Tools planning capacity Avail. Fulfilment Network of of products/ + willing testing/ Learning/ funds of contract services + + + partners experimenting testing/ - knowledge adaption + - + + transfer Learning new equip. + + + rate new provision + + + equipment of equip. + + + Adaptability + + to market - + fluctuations - + Financing + + + + need to private Exposure to - + Optimisation experiment Social-Ecol. + + partners + + + SES Need to adapt complexity/ + equip. to Multiple complexity/ + uncertainty supply Profitability ability/ time + local conditions + Uncertainty chains + + international Bureaucratic to experiment + (reeds, partners partners Project pellets, need to Knowledge/ Accident grass) - test under Experience rate Market project at Contract local conditions + dynamics/ - + interface between access etc Contacts + Whole supply science and industry + + chains + Profit Reliance on Project Adequacy of Support pressure help/ champion development + Hope to earn + Adequacy of Funds + something from avail. burgeoning + proj. in future Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions - formal biodiversity econ. & social (team) knowledge goals goals Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge establish personal interest non-commercial of project team Implementation/ Activity rate enterprise

Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms

Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use

Figure A2:9. Case Birds, Theme: Implementation, activity rate - Controlled Adequacy of Support + burns + locals Adequacy of Funds + ticks setting - fires Contract with Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions Ecol. + Min. for inadequate complexity fires Emergency Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge trad. feed for set in Services cattle + spring Implementation/ Activity rate (low water in marsh - Survival rate Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms + + - Policy Approval of of Insects response Ministry + Intensity/ Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use need to use of swamps Extent + of fire experiment + for grazing & Survival rate energy biomass - of nesting birds delay (not peat) Need for + + new ideas + + - Survival rate GOAL: Return of + + + of other animals high qual. focal species grass on Visibility testing/ swamps of need for knowledge + Adequacy of - experimenting saving swamps - transfer + communication - delay strategies + special, + Nature - + Swamp + protection light-weight Vegetation + wet meadows health NORM hardy cows (trees, bushes, reeds, etc) - Biodiversity + Need to maintain - - openness of - Avail. - + + + Drainage marshes + trad. need for knowledge Restrictions hardy breeds Maintenance need of Extensive Mowing - - - husbandry/ + Grazing + + Avail. + - funds for rural management + - delay - + Traditional socio-econ. cows unwillingness - + + Avail. Land Use Rural development able to to graze deep into funds depopulation projects graze the marsh inaccessible + Size of - parts of + local Accessibility of swamp + cattle swamp for + herds Changing grazing & mowing Young Existential Inclusion of farming people practices - threat to socio-econ. moving to villages aims for project cities plans - Small-scale local support + farming for initiatives + to save village Figure A2:10. Case Birds, Theme: Ecological system, land use Solution + + orientation Adequacy of Support problems overcome Quality & Adequacy of Funds quantity of + + outcomes + Restrictions Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions + delay Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge + - Nature - + - protection Adequacy of Implementation/ Activity rate Biodiversity NORM Planning - Traditional - - Monitoring land use Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms - + Active Rural Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use + + Management depopulation + approach + Vegetation - + + Uniqueness of overgrowth swamp as + Learning Implementation learning environ. + - rate + Activity rate Avail. Knowledge - + + + Diversification delay (partic. about of products/ Revise plan - tech dev. in SES Need for - + complexity/ services + on the run swamp environ.) + new ideas Uncertainty + GOALS + idea for (biodiversity, Innovation Local + Avail. Project- + school for indicators, + + interest/ support based + delay foreign knowledge socio-econ. (residents, farmers, students to Understanding sustainability) Collaborative + agencies, districts, study swamp of system testing/ NGOs) requirements Optimisation Experimentation ability/ time rate + to experiment + + - Avail. - establish Profitability + Know-how non-commercial + - Profit enterprise - pressure two good, avail. + project at Accident houses interface between need to rate + science and industry + test under Avail. + local conditions + - trad. + knowledge Local business + involved in new burgeoning + meadow management + equipment econ. & social Preference for biodiversity + goals goals avail. + business formal + partners over knowledge state orgs. SUPPORT Investment from elsewhere + requirements + knowledge Whole supply transfer Project chains Management Tools Figure A2:11. Case Birds, Theme: Learning, knowledge + + Peoples’ attitudes Careless Damage to (individualism: don’t picking bushes/ plants/ care about impact on + roots/ etc procurement agencies others/ + picking of buying unripe berries future generations - unripe berries

profit regeneration + wineries buying maximisation rate - + unripe berries + + of picking goal of Legislation Use of - long-term “no combs” picking combs + + Pickers’ sust. business - controls/ ability to + market + fines feedback + sell green Size of - berries fines + Depts of Average pension - Forestry/ delay Internal Affairs/ - delay - Nature Protection desire to make Will not buy high qual. prod. Importance of unripe berries Pressure on berry payments depts to fine Payments to for supplemental + + Fines go to income locals for berry + dept budgets + Quotas, picking etc + strict quality + requirements

complexity annual avail. & + of ecol. system demand/ distribution of + + price index + berries Foreign berry in West - pickers picking companies + choice of “high qual. prods + + partners/ come from high qual. Absence of + similar prods wholesalers raw materials” – belief Price of Avail. Wholesalers in West + buy berries berries in berries + health beneﬁts West in BL from pickers of the berry competition Market for berries + Documentation/ + permits easy to + Natural properties preserve + of cranberries + + Company buys naturally berries from + - wholesalers Adequacy of Support + Price of Adequacy of Funds berries in sour - BL + taste suitability for Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions production Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge - + cranberry Implementation/ Activity rate cannot be price oﬀered frozen without by company losing quality Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms

Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use Figure A2:12. Case Berries, Theme: Ecological system, land use Enthusiasm of chief engineer Adequacy of Support at Inst. of Nutrition + Adequacy of Funds

+ Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions idea + + contact Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge - Inst. of Nutrition Support of Average pension + Inst. of Nutrition Implementation/ Activity rate

+ avail. Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms Implement + average knowledge/ + new manuf. Visit to working conditions expertise/ + Importance of Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use line Moscow in district + suitable equip/ berry payments analogue experienced staff + Pay salaries for supplemental company + on time/ provide income Copyright + + good working + - certification + conditions/ holidays from Moscow production etc Learning Perception + Co-development as a good + of innovative techs cooperation with + - Inst. of Nutr. working place + + Support from + Soviet (impending) local community Support from general system closure of delay local leaders/ business - equip. manuf. - authorities prospects + reforms – business + - Econ. + Payments to Demand for Taxes + locals for berry Hard times + Anti-business + food manuf. “business is - Success of paid picking climate + equip. run by company - rascals” - + + Perestroika + - + Meet tax obligations + + + Number of prestige for + + + econ. reform Support of authorities Violations private district auths. - + delay towards market- businesses Demand for observed driven econ. + ripe berries + randomness of +t + scrutiny of + Institutional + visits + incorrect procedures company’s Compliance state control change re donation of property - operations with regs. apparatus regulations/ to enterprise + Idea to prescriptions Criticism by implement - + - regional exec + Legal ambitions of berry business - + - committee re Short-term challenges individual concept in Adequacy of + closure plans - Need of + inspectors Glubokoye Discovery of + control + govt. at multiple support of irregularities + inspections scales functioning auths. Avail + - + legal system fair courts + district Company Decision to compensation Measures finance + + approaches Alignment between implement in + award + auths./regional exec. prescriptions and + Glubokoye comm. when in owner’s perception + + need of good, reasonable - Leader District provides + People are different, originates from ability of settlement practice + property for prod, etc + some will support, Glubokoye district to leading to company some will oppose pay compensation retaining property - + Level of Conflict

+ Presidential decree re: Opportunity bankruptcy & to privatise No special founding a + treatment for company + “local” born Privatise business owners premises company allowed & equip. - Bankrupt district to buy out district + authority + cannot be + Avail co-founders + . fund Exec. comm. s + assistance/ + Eﬀective, arbitration/ accessible decision-making governance + structures + Support of exec. comm. for company concept

Figure A2:13. Case Berries, Theme: Support avail. + + + Potential + production - employees Qualified redundancy Unemployment delay rate Hiring specialist ability to rate Training in + employees work in team working Leader listens ability to all operations discipline to opinion of established deliver such + domains Retirement - staff re new hires packaging + rate inherent + consumer insufficiency of properties of one single product Tough requirements + Employees Firing Avail. funds/ to sustain a business products of job leaving rate materials etc + + general econ. + bright + frozen Costs of + situation in BL - packaging/ salaries + prod. partially advertising development etc - insulated from + - - of large range + market fluctuations + prod. cost of Consumers demand + of prods production company bright packaging/ ads demand for efficiency Exposure of BL + + knowledge about etc confectionary where to source consumers to + State sugar from in the Western product price setting + norms adequacy - market - + sales Perestroika of demand + + + - - prod. Prod. - quantity quality + - + + Price level - reform to applications + Govt procurement of products de-regulate to govt + profitability fund/agency procures + + pricing sugar/electricity etc expansion Govt indirect + at state-fixed price + + control over + + production/ + company sets + profitability Continuous own prices based on need of sugar/ + Sustainable state’s direct investment market considerations control over electricity enterprise Market BL company tied + + in development to local price in order profitability Novelty share - constantly of production/ to maintain profitability - company interaction with trying to R&D - regional exec. committee avail. sugar/ electricity improve + Price of price offered (to justify & negotiate prices) + berries in by company + use of preservatives West + + + vulnerability colouring agents, etc in food + market competition Commercial patents competitiveness for berries + interests in - delay + + + econ. growth + + & profit throwing out Specialised/ + Price of maximisation - obsolete stuff overcrowded high quality/ + berries in Company lack of “natural” production Awareness of BL - premises - control over sugar + consumers of public suppliers Avail. prod. quality. price of drive to health - - berries organic organic Need of + + in BL + food produce prod. facilities Avail. of + high qual. + Reviewed - Need Support of Avail. prods. + every year renter for purpose rental Interest rates + in other markets of company property importance of (i.e. international) + changes in consumer eco-certification behaviour towards high + + + + - qual. prods. - + + Production + requirement for Facilities - ecol. friendly Need to difficulties of Repayments Public Awareness of production tech rent eco-certification Avail. + importance of + - funds BL + Loans + + regulations/ food for health - - laws - Devaluation - Adequacy of Support Purchase Interest - of savings own facilities - rates Adequacy of Funds + - Opportunity Stability ability to Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions + to privatise of BL rouble reserve funds in international Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge desire to reserve + currency - funds in strong funds in Implementation/ Activity rate international currency hard currency

+ Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms

Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use

Figure A2:14. Case Berries, Theme: Financing, funds Enthusiasm + + memory of of chief engineer Adequacy of Support sugarcranberries at Inst. of Nutrition + + from childhood Visit to Support of Adequacy of Funds + (popular, experience contact Moscow Inst. of Nutrition “hard to get”) Leader prev. Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions Inst. of analogue role as Avail. Purchase big harvests Nutrition company idea food prod. literature State standards Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge of cranberries + engineer & recipes/Obtain + Formal - + Licences for Implementation/ Activity rate education + + recipes/ + know-how etc cooperation with Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms + Inst. of Nutr. + Leader’s wife + avail. + Consultations + technologist at knowledge/ with experts + Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use (impending) culinary plant expertise + closure of + + Implement - - equip. manuf. + + + Avail. business + new manuf. line - funds Retirement - Copyright simulations + + Seek and ask certification rate experiments from Moscow + + + + - Learning + + Engage delay + research + Hire institutes Human Tacit prod. + professionals Soviet knowledge + + efficiency + + system in Qualified specialist employees Adequacy of technology + + – + - + inputs development of Co-development + new equip., techs, + of innovative techs on the re-investment of processes - need for Perestroika job profit in R&D + specialised + cranberry training + knowledge/ techs. + cannot be in all Drive to profit margin + frozen without operations Specialised/ minimise delay losing quality high quality/ waste diversification of + + Tough requirements “natural” production income streams Complexity of + of job production + “High quality raw materials+ + Visibility on processes + + lead to a high quality product” + + shop shelves (nuances, subtleties, Requirements and secrets) + & limitations Licensing - New products + + + + - importance of need to + human factor + be visible (tacit knowledge) + Successful of production market patents Natural Serious licensing + “hard to teach” - competitiveness products proposals prospects + Novelty +

knowledge transfer/ + - Partners/ constantly + demand + experience sharing outlets in Avail. of trying to Potential for Germany & high qual. improve Identiﬁcation of scale-up Poland + + prods. mutual beneﬁt +

Figure A2:15. Case Berries, Theme: Learning, knowledge complexity annual avail. & of ecol. system distribution of berries Foreign berry demand/ pickers - picking companies + price index in West + choice of + partners/ Absence of + similar prods Wholesalers wholesalers + Price of Avail. in West buy berries berries in berries Documentation/ + from pickers health benefits West in BL permits of the berry competition Market for berries + avail. sugar/ + + + easy to - electricity Natural properties preserve + Company buys of cranberries + naturally berries from + + Govt procurement + wholesalers Production + fund/agency procures Need Support of Avail. rate sugar/electricity etc + + renter for purpose rental - - at state-fixed price sour - + of company property Price of + - taste suitability for berries in State production Avail. - cost of BL + price control + + berries production + - cranberry + - cannot be Production price offered Need to Facilities frozen without by company rent losing quality + prod. + - efficiency - -

+ Sales Price Owned BL company tied property to local price in order re-investment of Need for to maintain profitability profit in R&D - ??? capital etc + ?? + + Worldview: profit “High quality margin Adequacy of Support raw materials lead to a high development + sales Adequacy of Funds/ Inputs quality product” + of knowledge/ + - techs. market Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions + competitiveness + + + + Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge + company sets need for Market own prices based on Implementation/ Activity rate specialised share market considerations knowledge/ Specialised/ - high quality/ Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms techs. “natural” production + + Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use + Awareness of Avail. of consumers of changes in consumer high qual. prod. quality. behaviour towards high Figure A2:16. Case Berries, Theme: Inputs prods. + + qual. prods. Adequacy of Support + strong belief in Natural products + only natural prods (no additives etc) Adequacy of Funds for human consumption public + Adequacy of Planning/ Goals/ Visions awareness of Doing something food quality focus on delivering good for people Adequacy of Learning/ Knowledge products that consumers want Implementation/ Activity rate + + Clear + goals Institutional environmental/Regulatory system/ Norms + + + PL’s Worldview: Problem- what a “real” Wetlands Ecological Systems/ Land Use + solving Success business is ability + factors & does of company + + + + + + Respected by others/ Experience community Specialists Creation of Based on a Clear, multiple foundation alternative Careful added value + of laws/ abidance pathways to selection (i.e. NOT simply trading goals of personnel for profit) Figure A2:17. Case Berries, Theme: Leadership, values Appendix 3: Results 1.1. Key drivers and core processes of wetland restoration initiatives in Belarus At the overview level, each case comprised an inter-connected system (Fig. 4) consisting of three sets of key drivers: a) the institutional environment and regulatory system, b) adequacy of leadership, and c) the wetlands ecosystem itself; and five core processes, relating to the adequacy of 1) plans, 2) support, 3) inputs, 4) activity rates, and 5) learning and knowledge processes. Sections 4.2 – 4.6 unpack the dynamics of each of the core processes and relationships with drivers.

Window of Adequacy of opportunity leadership

Plans Institutional environment and regulatory Learning & Knowledge system Activity/ Implementation

delay Support

Wetlands Inputs ecosystem

Figure 4 (from main paper). An overview level CLD, synthesising the core dynamics of studied wetland restoration initiatives in Belarus. Three sets of drivers triggered windows of opportunity and subsequently influenced five core management processes (in dashed box). Arrows connecting directly to dashed box indicate the influence of a given driver on multiple processes within the box. Figures 5 – 9 unpack the dynamics of each of the core processes and relationships with drivers. Interviewees frequently referred to historical institutional legacies, regarding the Soviet Union, its dissolution, and subsequent rapid changes in land use. Soviet-era land-use practices and mismanagement were identified as a primary cause of the generally deteriorated state of many natural wetlands. Key economic drivers, such as lack of state funding for ecological initiatives, were linked to the continued fallout of the post-Soviet transition. Soviet-/ transition-era policies were also identified as underlying rural depopulation trends, which impacted local livelihoods and availability of relevant knowledge. Such legacies underscored a variety of contemporaneous drivers (e.g. focus on domestic energy security) leading to the development of plans in each case.

Interactions between these legacies created windows of opportunity triggering sustainability initiatives, and shaped the main thrust of key long-term objectives. For example, Soviet drainage and land-use regimes led to catastrophic bog fires when combined with intentional fire-setting behaviours among local peoples to reduce tick abundance. The scale and frequency of these fires became a call to action. The apparent failure of initial state-based responses, such as investment in fire-fighting infrastructure, provided opportunities for fire prevention through hydrological restoration.

The ability to perceive these windows of opportunity required specific educational and professional backgrounds, personal interests and value systems, and employment status. Project initiators were all situated in decision-making capacities (e.g. director of NGO, chief engineer, etc).

1.2. Adequacy of plans Adequacy of plans (Fig. 5) encompassed a spectrum of formal and informal documents and processes, intended for either internal and external use. According to interviewees, adequate plans included clear, well-prioritised objectives, and novel ideas and innovations, and were developed through iterative planning processes. Adequate plans integrated broad sets of knowledge (e.g. regarding problem urgency, or financial requirements and opportunities), and were able to sufficiently identify and mitigate perceived risk1.

1 Results regarding knowledge and risk are presented separately in subsequent sections. Environmental disturbance/ degradation Institutional + & economic + legacies - Development of International ecological Adequacy of State research & objectives local livelihoods inaction on + [Birds & Bogs] - experiences environ. issues + Adequacy of + + Wetlands + leadership ecosystem (Perceived) + Clear, well- + Permits/ Legitimacy of Novel prioritised approvals initiative Ideas/ - objectives granted + Innovation + + + + + delay + State - Sunk + funds available only + Planning planning for social/economic + + processes costs development projects Number of Development + stakeholders of social/ + + - involved economic - Perceived + objectives Adequacy + of resource + commercial + - + viability + inputs Adequacy of + Participatory Diversiﬁcation process Learning/ + Adequacy Knowledge - of plans + delay Adequacy of risk + + assessment/ - + Adequacy of + management stakeholder - Perceived - - support risk Onerous Uncertainty/ regulatory system complexity + +

+ Quality & Activity rate quantity of outcomes/ outputs +

Figure 5 (from main paper). Sub-model unpacking the causal dynamics influencing the Adequacy of plans for wetland restoration initiatives in Belarus. Core processes are in bold. Coloured non-bolded variables represent specific concepts unpacked from within respective core processes. E.g. Clear, well-prioritised objectives is a facet of Adequacy of plans. Thick lines represent links between core processes. Several variables recur throughout Figures 5-9, representing points where core process dynamics link together in an integrated model2.

1.2.1. Clear, well-prioritised objectives Cases Bogs & Birds were initially driven by a set of ecological objectives focused on restoration and sustainable management of degraded wetlands ecosystems. These were subsequently expanded to encompass social/economic objectives. Case Berries focused initially on achieving the latter, although well aware of the importance of a functional ecological system as a basis for material inputs into his production system. Interviewees stated that the inclusion of social and/or economic objectives was an important factor to provide clearer alignment with the objectives of other key stakeholders (Fig. 5), especially state authorities at various levels, who were perceived by interviewees to strongly prioritise socio-economic development. Very few

2 Result CLDs here represent artificially disconnected parts of an interconnected system, separated diagrammatically for the convenience of the reader in accordance with the core processes identified. However, a fully interconnected model is diagrammatically inefficient for the purposes of this article. state funds, or other forms of state support, were available for initiatives with solely ecological aims. Objectives were therefore developed and framed in terms of positive outcomes for local livelihoods. Explicit socio-economic rationales were also highly prioritised by other stakeholders, e.g. small businesses.

1.2.2. Novel ideas and innovations A keen motivation to innovate or seek novel solutions to complex challenges was a personal characteristic of leaders. Novel ideas (Figs. 5, 6 & 8) were often inspired by components of wetlands ecosystems, e.g. the abundance of species or natural materials. Otherwise, international research and experiences were an important source of novel ideas, which attracted the involvement of other stakeholders, provided the basis for diversification strategies, and stimulated cross-sectoral collaboration. The iterative development of objectives and the input and/or limitations of various stakeholders also provided a frame upon which further ideas and innovations were constructed.

“We have already started two production lines, and are now looking for an opportunity to use the remaining swamp biomass. We are already considering a new project, in which the main issue is the sustainable use of the biomass.” [Case Birds]

1.2.3. Iterative planning process Planning processes (Fig. 5) concerned the development of strategic and operational objectives, and identifying the knowledge and input requirements, processes and organisational structures necessary to achieve these. In all cases, planning was a dynamic, iterative process changing over time as new ideas, knowledge, stakeholders and inputs came to hand. For example, changes in governmental regulatory systems necessitated plan revisions. However, planning was highly dependent on adequate resource inputs, primarily human and financial resources. Thus, whilst all interviewees suggested that iterative planning was important to incorporate new knowledge and adapt to changing circumstances, they also identified an unwillingness amongst stakeholders to continue to revise plans if significant time and other resources had already been spent developing them. As such, a sunk cost effect effectively set in, limiting further planning.

Planning was generally undertaken by the initiating organisation, before plans were presented to key stakeholders, usually government authorities, for approval. In some cases, permissions were required prior to the commencement of planning. As such, the perceived legitimacy of the initiative was an important factor in greenlighting planning processes. For example, the leader for case Bogs petitioned government authorities to be allowed to develop a management plan for Jeĺnia wetland. Subsequent governmental permission recognised the NGO as responsible for coordinating plan development, although further permits were required to approve the plans for implementation. In cases Bogs and Birds, planning processes were often highly bureaucratic, including formal participatory processes. The roles for stakeholders in such processes varied. Central authorities provided an important source of knowledge in terms of data. Public involvement, however, was essentially cosmetic, providing little or no real contribution to planning processes. Planning in Case Berries, on the other hand, had become less formal and/or more unilateral with time, as partnerships with state authorities were wound down for a variety of reasons, e.g. privatisation of state-owned land, elimination of state-fixed prices on confectionary planning, etc.

“In the early stages, when prices were regulated, we were directly dependent [on the authorities]… Today we handle everything ourselves. The only thing is: we are very strictly controlled by the state.” [Case Berries]

1.3. Adequacy of stakeholder support Adequate support (Fig. 6) of external and internal stakeholders was essential for the provision of a wide variety of essential permits and approvals. The degree of dependency on stakeholder support varied across the cases. The leader for case Berries, for example, perceived a considerable degree of self-sufficiency, albeit remaining dependent on permissions. Both leaders for cases Birds and Bogs expressed a greater need for stakeholder support, partly due to an increased exposure to regulatory requirements, and also for inputs (especially financial).

1.3.1. Cultivating relationships with governmental decision makers The support of lower-level authorities was influenced by support from above. For this reason, the support of key governmental decision-makers was crucial. The support of such individuals was also important to the initiative’s brand visibility, indirectly driving additional support, or quelling potential opposition.

“I quickly found support in the chief engineer at the Institute of Nutrition. He became enthusiastic about the idea and we began to develop a serious production line.” [Case Berries] “We have very good relations with the Ministry. [Senior official] has a Ph.D., worked at the Institute of Experimental Botany. He understands all these issues and is interested in what we are doing. He is a fisherman and owns a house in the village so it is very easy to work with him. And among all other Ministries, all of our novelties and innovations are perceived with great appreciation and interest.” [Case Birds] “The word from the Ministry means a lot at the district level…Vice Minister [name] supported us and said that it was necessary to save Jeĺnia. They never refused to support… [Former NGO Director] convinced him. It was fast.” [Leader for case Bogs]

Nature Knowledge of current [*Support of key protection policy interpretation + decision makers] norm Clear, well- - + State inaction on prioritised environ. issues objectives Alignment of + Development objectives with + of social/ those of other - economic - stakeholders + objectives - Environmental + Institutionalised Number of disturbance/ socio-cultural - stakeholders degradation Novel legacies Quality & quantity involved Diversiﬁcation Ideas/ + of outcomes/ Innovation International + (Perceived) + outputs + + research & Legitimacy of - experiences + initiative Brand Exposure to + visibility macro-economic Perceived risk + Adequacy of uncertainty + + + + - + + available + + - + knowledge & Adequacy of experience - awareness- Perceived Partnerships + - + Adequacy of Belarus’ raising/ commercial (carefully stakeholder integration with communications viability chosen) + support international strategies community Wetlands Adequacy + ecosystem + of plans + + + + Permits/ + Support of govt. - approvals Support of Adequacy of authorities (esp. - granted key decision Leadership Adequacy of from top down) + makers local livelihoods Onerous + regulatory system Lack of Political considerations government - + + + coordination + + + + [*Brand Institutional & visibility] Adequacy economic Cultivating Top-down of inputs legacies Competing relationships with governance interests inﬂuential decision system + + - makers etc

Figure 6 (from main paper). Sub-model unpacking causal dynamics influencing Adequacy of stakeholder support, which is partially disaggregated in this diagram to clarify key dynamics relating to the support of two important stakeholder types, government authorities and key decision-makers. Whilst other drivers of support, e.g. brand visibility, or legitimacy of initiative, also influence these sub-concepts, these relationships are not explicitly represented here, for the sake of diagrammatic clarity and to avoid double-accounting. Cultivation of personal relationships with influential decision-makers was an efficient means to leverage support from lower instances without expending resources convincing each of them. In addition to imbuing legitimacy, the support of a higher government authority effectively limited the risk exposure of lower bureaucratic instances. Importantly, personal relationships with key decision-makers provided valuable knowledge of current interpretations of policies and strategies, so that plans and objectives could be aligned to secure inputs and/or permissions. However, personal relationships were not always a guarantee of continuous support. Key decision-makers were also influenced by a range of political considerations, including a spectrum of socio-economic development challenges and the objectives of competing interests, e.g. resource extraction lobbies. Political considerations also captured a broader set of political dynamics e.g. inter-agency envy or embarrassment. Brand visibility and the adequacy of awareness-raising/communications strategies were also factors identified as influencing the support of central authorities and decision-makers.

The identity of key decision-makers differed amongst the cases. Although government authorities were always important, interviewees identified a temporal aspect, stating that who was key depended on the development phase of the initiative. Following price deregulation of the confectionary industry, The leader for case Berries perceived no further need of contact with upper echelons of power. The leader for case Bogs stated that rather than one single key decision-maker there was a chain of relationships among key individuals that was important to maintain, including the initiating person, the minister for natural resources and environmental protection, the CEO of the main sponsor (Coca Cola), and the director of the NGO.

1.3.2. Alignment of objectives with those of other stakeholders The leaders for all cases stated that support was highly influenced by the degree to which objectives aligned with those of a given authority, or other influential stakeholders, and by extension with those of the individual persons representing that authority.

“We can’t do anything without the authorities, because they regulate everything. It was difficult in the 1990s, but their orientation has changed: now it is important to develop the business sector. Our company is like a business card for the district. Now we don’t have problems with the authorities.” [Leader for case Berries]

Leaders for all cases identified cross-sectoral benefits resulting from their initiatives. The leaders of cases Berries & Birds positioned themselves, from opposite directions, at a science- industry nexus, in order to develop innovation-based collaborations. The leader for case Bogs identified a complementarity of resources and requirements amongst various actors. “We [NGO] have ideas but lack resources. The government has no money and no ideas. UNDP have money but no ideas. Coca Cola needs PR. For the little money they invest into Jeĺnia, they would never receive this kind of PR anywhere else.” [Leader, case Bogs]

However, a general lack of policy coordination and integration across different sectors was perceived to lead to conflicting objectives amongst government authorities, who otherwise operated within tightly restricted fields of action. Thus, a greater number of stakeholders involved presented a potential barrier to alignment, increasing the difficulty to identify potential “win-wins”.

According to interviewees, most stakeholders conflated environmental projects with nature protection, which was perceived as helpful in terms of providing regulatory controls to curb environmental degradation (Fig. 9). However, the “protection mentality” of some stakeholders was said to restrict management alternatives and the freedom of projects to identify, innovate and frame novel “win-win” solutions.

“Any restrictive actions must be accompanied by real economic activities that sustain nature conservation.” [Case Birds]

Support at the local level, in terms of residents, land users and local authorities, was strongly influenced by the degree to which planned activities might improve local livelihoods (Figs. 5&6). Active awareness-raising and communication efforts were tailored to highlight goal alignment and to more generally shape perceptions by managing brand visibility.

Despite having little power, interviewees remained wary of agitating local rural residents. Support in several instances across the three cases was characterised by the lack of opposition, from local residents or authorities.

“In contrast to many other districts, neither the local population nor the local authorities were indifferent…I do not remember anybody strongly complaining.” [Leader, case Bogs]

1.3.3. Brand visibility and communication strategies Brand visibility (Figs. 6, 7A & 7B) referred primarily to the visibility of initiative-driven activities, outcomes and products, and of the organisation chiefly responsible for planning and implementation. Additionally, it related to the visibility of underlying environmental problems stemming from wetland degradation. Brand visibility was an important driver of legitimacy and stakeholder support.

On the downside, greater visibility had implications for political considerations, potentially agitating stakeholders with alternate agendas or competing interests. Visibility was also said to attract rent-seekers (Fig. 7B) and raised the stakes of failure or other negative outcomes.

The adequacy of public awareness-raising and communications strategies were instrumental in growing brand visibility. Available knowledge and experience as well as adequate leadership were important factors in the development and implementation of these strategies (Fig. 6). Active communication of initiative-derived knowledge established the profile of the initiative in new forums and with other similar organisations.

Unique selling points were central to communication and awareness-building. To this end, international research and experiences helped counteract the habituated blindness of locals to identify unique aspects of the ecosystem, e.g. abundance of charismatic species, or its consumer-friendly benefits, e.g. wild foods. Novel ideas and innovative approaches, e.g. circular economy, also provided useful talking points and grabbed attention.

“We always get help and support, because the aquatic warbler is on everyone’s lips. We came to the swamp and saw an old lady asking: Guys, do you know that the aquatic warbler appeared here? Yesterday, the chairman of the district executive committee asked: How is the aquatic warbler? It’s very helpful to have this targeted flow of information to create mutual understanding and solve problems.” [Leader, case Birds]

The degree to which Belarus sought to integrate with the international community was identified as an important driver of international support and brand visibility. International actors were often engaged as formal partners, e.g. as donors and/or co-organisers, or otherwise as informal sources of support and other inputs.

“The international level is reached through research programs. Many foreign experts come and praise us…Jeĺnia is involved in exhibitions…Even our Parliament wants its members to see Jeĺnia. It’s visible enough and there’s interest in it.” [Case Bogs]

International norms were said to exert soft-power influence on environmental and other norms at the national level, and the ratification of international agreements to influence national regulatory system reforms. However, a field of tension was identified regarding national identity contra international influence, which in some instances also led to suspicion and/or rejection of international norms and practices.

1.3.4. Perceived legitimacy of initiative Support, especially from key stakeholders, had an important legitimising influence for organisations and activities. “All our organisations cooperate well with the authorities. Otherwise they would not exist.” Leader, case Bogs

Legitimacy provided a key source of agency, and in turn had a mutually reinforcing influence on support. The adequacy of leadership was an important determinant of perceived legitimacy, providing a knowledgeable, solution-oriented face for the organisation. Delivery of planned outcomes/ outputs and increased brand visibility were usually commensurate with increases in perceived legitimacy. Legitimacy was also affected by perceptions of the initiative as a good “corporate citizen”, e.g. providing a good workplace, making appropriate social contributions (Fig. 7B).

“We employ 20-30 people. We always pay salaries on time and provide adequate working conditions…We have no problem providing holidays, we’re competitive, and people see that we are successful. This becomes a turning point in peoples’ consciousness.” [Case Berries]

A set of institutionalised socio-cultural legacies (Fig. 6), including distrust of private enterprise and NGOs, often negatively coloured stakeholders’ perceptions. Interviewees perceived these pervasive attitudes to pose obstacles to support-building due to the many ways in which they, in addition to impacting legitimacy, shaped perceptions of risk and conflict (Fig. 6).

1.3.5. Perceived risk Risks identified by interviewees included adverse changes in natural (e.g. weather or climate), technical (e.g. due to inadequate knowledge), financial (e.g. macro-economic turbulence), and governance (e.g. regulatory) systems. Whilst interviewees generally attempted to curtail exposure to some identified risks, e.g. macro-economic uncertainty, they considered other risks to be unavoidable and attempted to manage these by preparedness and timely decision-making.

Risk was also a perceived quality. Perceived risk (Figs. 5, 6 & 7A) was partly a bi-product of a set of institutionalised socio-cultural legacies encompassing fear of change and/or reprisal, unwillingness to engage, an anti-business climate, a culture of indifference/passivity, lack of open society, and ‘tall poppy syndrome’. Fear of state reprisal ensured, for example, that interviewees assiduously maintained a non-partisan political stance in plans and activities. This extended to the careful selection of potential partners, to ensure the absence of untoward political affiliations or association with politically sensitive sentiments.

“We try not to go into politics. Our Central Council may reject joining with any political organisations or unions in case it is dangerous for our organisation.” [Leader, case Bogs]

Adequate inputs (especially financial resources and fixed capital), the commercial viability of planned activities, and demonstrated delivery of expected outcomes and outputs were all suggested to reduce perceptions of risk, especially those related to production-based initiatives.

“The private sector is weak and there are few business people.” [Case Berries]

Interviewees devised innovative solutions to risks associated with inadequate inputs. For example, the leader for case Birds established a non-profit organisation to provide initial knowledge and capital inputs, as well as coordinating planning and implementation, in order to reduce the initial risk exposure of private local partners. These partners were expected to assume greater responsibility for management activities and expenses once commercial viability was established.

“Next year we will look for money to buy a [reed-processing] machine and help business people to develop in this direction. New technology and new businesses are unpredictable. People are afraid to take loans, so they need help. That is, we must give them a fishing rod, bait and fish and even more – they will get salaries until the project is going. And later, ‒ ‘fish yourself!’” [Leader, case Birds]

1.4. Adequacy of inputs Inputs referred to a variety of financial, material, human, and technological/ fixed capital resources (Figs. 7A & 7B). Support, including partner organisations, was a key determinant of input adequacy, which was also heavily influenced by the scale of planned activities.

1.4.1. Financial resources available to initiatives Financial resources available to initiatives was a key input, enabling other inputs and thereby activity rates and delivery of outcomes/outputs (Fig. 7A). Interviewees referred to two main sources of financial resources, donor funding and internally-generated sales revenue. State funds were scarcely available, and then generally only to projects with a clear social/economic dimension.

Some co-funding opportunities were available, whereby successful applications could be leveraged for supplementary funds. Indirect state funding was available for certain activities in the form of subsidies or tax exemptions, e.g. for energy production equipment. Loans were also a potential source of funds, but interviewees considered these relatively inaccessible due to the high cost of credit in Belarus and other constraints e.g. exposure to macro-economic uncertainty in currency markets.

Case Bogs was heavily reliant on support from a variety of donors, including international NGOs, multinational corporations, and some government agencies. Efforts at self-financing in Case Bogs were otherwise focused on fund-raising activities (e.g. large-scale tourist events), which were subsidised by donors. Earlier plans for the development of a value-added production company based on wild foods had failed to eventuate. Donor-funding – especially from international donors – increased regulatory exposure, creating a heavy administrative burden (Figs. 7A & 7B). Strict controls regarding international financial transactions required long and paperwork-intensive permitting processes with uncertain outcomes, and with no access to these funds before permissions were granted. Interviewees perceived this as one means by which state authorities exercised control over NGOs. Other examples included the sudden freezing of bank accounts and highly disadvantageous taxation rules for NGOs. Donor- funding also had a potentially negative feedback on the perceived legitimacy of the initiative (Fig. 7B), which leaders for cases Birds and Berries connected with financial self-reliance. All organisations were expected by authorities to make a variety of social and charitable contributions. However, interviewees indicated that donor-funded NGOs were more likely to be subject to rent-seeking behaviour (Fig. 7B). Internationally-funded initiatives were suggested as being especially targeted, and increasingly disincentivised, by such behaviour.

“Permissions are required for many things…We don’t have the right to spend [funds] if the authorities don’t permit it. We need to register. That is, the Ministry should approve. Otherwise we have to give the money back [to donors]. Even if you have money, you still need support of the authorities.” [Leader, case Bogs]

“To ask for money from the Ministry all the time is not trustworthy…Economics is a very, very important part of any environmental project.” [Leader, case Birds] Brand State - visibility A procurement/ Sales revenue from price-setting goods/services + resulting from activity Quality & + quantity of outcomes/ State + outputs funds available + only for social/ Activity rate + + economic Financial + Institutional & development Privatisation resources + + - economic projects available to Costs legacies + - Investment + initiative + - Exposure to Lack of + + + macro-economic government + - Donor funding + uncertainty + + coordination + [Birds & Bogs] + Permits/ R&D/ Adequacy of + approvals - Experimentation Adequacy of stakeholder + granted Loans technology/ ﬁxed - support + capital inputs - Perceived International Administrative/ Perceived commercial support bureaucratic risk viability + burden - - + + Belarus’ + integration with + international community

+ Materials & Permits/ other variable + approvals B inputs + granted

Harvesting + activities Scale of + planned State Wetland activities users + procurement/ Wetlands price-setting/ - Adequacy of ecosystem subsidies stakeholder - support + Diversiﬁcation + - Activity rate - - + Adequacy of technology/ ﬁxed + + Adequacy of capital inputs inputs +

Quality & - + quantity of + Delays + + outcomes/ R&D/ outputs - Financial Experimentation Administrative/ - Adequacy of resources + bureaucratic Human available to + burden - resources initiative - + Competence + + Costs + + of partners/ team/ Number of + Rent-seeking collaborators + + + stakeholders - - involved (Perceived) + [Birds & Bogs] + Adequacy of + delay Legitimacy of Onerous salaries/ Adequacy initiative regulatory system of legal - taxes/ social - institutions contributions paid International Top-down governance Donor system support + funding [Birds & Bogs] Brand visibility

Figure 7A & B (from main paper). Sub-models unpacking causal dynamics influencing Adequacy of inputs for wetland restoration initiatives. Inputs are disaggregated into four main types: Financial resources, Technology/ fixed capital, Human resources, and Materials and other variable inputs. Fig. 7 is separated into two sub-models simply to reduce diagrammatic complexity and aid reader comprehension. Links from support to the various disaggregated types of inputs are aggregated into one main link in B. In addition to donor funds, the leader for case Birds sought to develop a circular economic model, with sales revenues iteratively financing a loop of sustainable harvesting activities and material production. Sales revenues were the prime source of financial resources in Case Berries. Profits were partly re-invested into internal research and development (R&D)/experimentation. This was influenced by the values of the leader for case Berries regarding “good business” (e.g. financial self-reliance), the dangers of debt, and a strong belief in continuous improvement through learning. Deregulation of state price-setting on confectionary allowed the leader for case Berries to set his own sales prices, although these remained constrained by domestic purchasing power. State price control of other inputs exerted indirect control over potential revenues.

1.4.2. Materials and other variable inputs Materials and other variable inputs (Fig. 7B) refer to various materials harvested from wetlands and utilised in value-added production chains, but also to natural capital used in other initiative- driven activities e.g. cranes for bird-watching tourism. The quality and abundance of these inputs depended on biophysical aspects of the wetlands ecosystems themselves and/or the rate of harvesting activity, where applicable. In some cases, harvesting was conducted by the initiative. Otherwise it was dependent on other users, e.g. berry pickers. Permits were required to acquire materials and other variable inputs, e.g. berries from wholesalers. State procurement/ subsidies were important for the provision of inexpensive electricity and sugar for Case Berries.

1.4.3. Adequacy of technology/ fixed capital inputs The inherent properties, quality and abundance of case specific material inputs determined whether available technology/ fixed capital inputs were adequate (Fig. 7B). Diversification could lead to multiple uses of the same capital, but often led to the need for additional inputs.

“There are a lot of nuances building a technological chain along three biomass lines, which must be used in different directions. The major problem is always – money.” [Leader, case Birds]

For Cases Berries & Birds, investments in production technologies, equipment and other forms of fixed capital (Fig. 7A) were seen to improve efficiency, optimise processes, minimise delays and hasten production of outputs, which could in turn be sold, or otherwise marketed, to recruit new financial revenues. The perceived commercial viability of an initiative was an important factor motivating investment. The realisation of technology/capital investments added to stakeholders’ perceptions regarding adequacy of inputs, further reinforcing perceptions of commercial viability. However, operational and investment costs relating to these inputs also drained financial resources.

Privatisation (Fig. 7A) of previously state-owned fixed capital provided the opportunity for the leadership of case Berries to own the factory and production processes outright. This investment reduced dependence on state support, a move that the leader for case Berries perceived as central to his ability to implement his own plans and objectives.

The institutional integration of Belarus with the international community also provided opportunities, e.g. access to potential markets for wetlands-derived products. Participation in international markets could, however, necessitate expensive upgrades to technical processes to meet new norms and standards. As such, whilst formal access to international markets incentivised capital investment, inadequate capital stocks constrained market participation.

1.4.4. Adequacy of human resources In most cases, human resources (Figs. 7B & 8) referred to internal team members or those of partner organisations although volunteers also provided important contributions in Case Bogs, e.g. providing a low-cost substitute to otherwise unavailable financial and capital inputs. Human resources provided important knowledge and experience, but were often drained by an endless stream of administrative/ bureaucratic paperwork, resulting from an onerous regulatory system.

“Almost every year between 2007 and 2014 we organised volunteer labour camps. About 50 dams were built and repaired… It was only possible to do by manual labour, as small, specialised excavators did not exist in Belarus at that time.” [Leader, case Bogs]

1.5. Activity rate Many activities (Fig. 9) were, directly or indirectly, aimed at increasing the number of wetland users, and/or the creation of local employment opportunities, and thus had important impacts on the adequacy of local livelihoods. Some use-based activities involving active management measures, e.g. clearing vegetation, were obstructed by passive management requirements associated with nature protection norms or were restricted by other governmental regulatory systems. Wetland users +

- + + Belarus’ integration with Wetlands + Competing Degree to which international ecosystem interests initiative disrupts community current Adequacy of local unsustainable Adequacy of + uses of wetlands - + livelihoods + + Nature protection legal institutions Onerous norm - + + regulatory + Conﬂict system + + Delays + - - + + Institutionalised - Environmental Training socio-cultural Error/ disturbance/ legacies degradation accident Adequacy of rate - plans + - Initiative-related Permits/ approvals granted employment Adequacy of Active opportunities stakeholder Adequacy of wetlands + + - + - support awareness- management + + raising/ approach [Birds & Bogs] + communications strategies + - Adequacy of + Activity rate + + inputs Uncertainty/ Adequacy of complexity Learning/ Knowledge + + + + Brand Quality & Administrative/ visibility quantity of bureaucratic outcomes/ burden Perceived + + outputs commercial + viability

Figure 9 (from main paper). Sub-model unpacking causal dynamics influencing the Activity rate of wetland restoration initiatives in Belarus. Entrenched socio-cultural legacies of indifference and carelessness regarding the negative impacts of some users on wetlands were identified as a driver of environmental disturbance & degradation. Leader for all three cases sought therefore to shape public attitudes through a variety of direct awareness-raising and knowledge dissemination activities, and/or through indirect use of power, e.g. refusing to purchase unripe berries in order to affect change in picking behaviours. Brand visibility also influenced the number and types of users. “The reserve gladly helps fishermen because it earns money for the reserve…But this causes anxiety because they bring garbage and the danger of fires, and disturb the birds.” [Leader, case Bogs]

Adequate planning and knowledge reduced delays (Figs. 8&9) due to e.g. training requirements, errors and accidents, or conflicts regarding other, generally deleterious, wetland uses. This latter encompassed large- and small-scale competing interests, e.g. peat mining, illegal fishing/hunting, or commercial berry picking. Conflicts were exacerbated by the degree to which local livelihoods depended on disrupted uses, and also by socio-cultural legacies, which caused implementing organisations to be perceived as meddlers. Conflict risked support. The leader for case Berries perceived legal institutions, commercial courts in particular, to provide a generally fair arena for conflict resolution and redress, even in cases involving local authorities.

1.5.1. Feedbacks to support Activity rate and outcomes/outputs led to multiple direct and indirect feedbacks on stakeholder support (Figs. 6, 8&9), including that of state authorities and key individual decision-makers. High quality outcomes and various kinds of activity promoted brand visibility, leading to increased support, and thereby inputs and/or permissions. In some cases, successful outcomes led to the adoption of new standards and procedures, and to invitations for initiative representatives to participate in regulatory system reform processes. These feedbacks were often slow. Activity was also seen as a means to directly derive additional support, by way of exposure to new contacts and networks. According to leaders from cases Birds and Berries, profits – as evidence of commercial viability – were an important motivator of activity. For this reason, these leaders preferred private sector partners over state actors. “Proof of concept” loops occurred as a result of a feedback from outcomes to commercial viability.

“Experience shows that it is better to work with businesses. They don’t receive money from the state. They understand that how much they earn depends on themselves, and are therefore active.” [Leader, case Birds]

1.6. Adequacy of learning and knowledge Adequacy of available knowledge & experience (Fig. 8) was conceptualised as a clear understanding regarding problem scale, current interpretations of relevant government policies and strategies, key factors, system requirements, and potential solutions. Existing knowledge was accessed in a number of ways – from knowledgeable human resources, e.g. experts/specialists, competent staff and leaders; from formal sources such as national and international research organisations and databases; from informal sources such as excursions to analogue firms/ initiatives, dialogue with other organisations who had relevant experiences. As such, access to existing knowledge could be obtained through support mechanisms, or was otherwise a factor of adequate financial resources. R&D/ - Experimentation + Perceived Scale of Applicability of + + + research to local risk planned Adequacy of activities context Leadership + + + + Adequacy of - Partnerships stakeholder (carefully support + Uncertainty/ - Role of chosen) Investment Adequacy of + complexity tacit/ traditional + inputs - knowledge + + + Novel Ideas/ - Competence Costs Innovation of partners/ Available experts/ Error/ accident specialists - team/ - rate + collaborators + Adequacy of + + - + plans +

Training + - Activity rate - Adequacy Quality & + of Human quantity of International resources + research & - + + outcomes/ + + experiences + outputs + Learning delay + - + (Perceived) Nature protection Adequacy of available - norm + Legitimacy of knowledge & experience + initiative delay + - Onerous + - - regulatory system - International + support Monitoring & + Institutional & Restricted evaluation economic availability of + Belarus’ legacies information + integration with + international + [Investment] community Institutionalised socio-cultural Top-down legacies governance system

Figure 8 (from main paper). Sub-model unpacking causal dynamics influencing the Adequacy of Learning and Knowledge for wetland restoration initiatives. Learning and knowledge/experience concepts are disaggregated in this sub-model in order to clarify causal pathways. These concepts are otherwise aggregated together in the other sub-models.

1.6.1. Learning Interviewees were clearly personally motivated by a desire to learn and to find innovative solutions to difficult management problems. Initiatives therefore adopted multiple modes of ongoing learning, and were keen to ensure the transfer of knowledge to partners, staff, collaborators and other key stakeholders through training and communication strategies. Training was especially important in activities involving a high degree of tacit or traditional knowledge. Investment in active learning processes (e.g. R&D/experimentation) and activity rates were important determinants of learning processes. Delays, e.g. due to errors and accidents, whilst occasionally costly, were viewed as valuable learning opportunities. Experimentation was typically fused with implementation activities – i.e. learning by doing – with both balanced by identical feedback control from available inputs (primarily funds). However, learning by doing was complicated by factors of uncertainty and complexity (e.g. false positives/negatives, imperceptible causality). Perceived risk, in part due to uncertainty/complexity, was a key motivating factor for investments in R&D and experimentation, as was leaders’ beliefs regarding the long-term value of R&D for commercial enterprises. Learning also resulted from monitoring and evaluation efforts, often a regulatory system requirement. Leaders for cases Birds and Bogs suggested that compliance with regulatory documentation requirements provided a wealth of material for knowledge sharing and awareness-raising across NGO networks and to other interested parties.

1.6.2. Availability of experts and specialists Experts and specialists were highly respected by interviewees as essential knowledge inputs. In some instances, specialists were employed as team members or consultants, whereas in others they were merely supporters who were persuaded to contribute without charge. Costs associated with retaining experts could otherwise be prohibitive. Investment in their services was often on an ad hoc basis.

“We didn’t have a lot of money to fully explore this [hydrological] issue… We have only $4000. We cannot say: ‘please, do the hydrography of the marshes.’ We say: ‘please, tell us what to do first.’” [Leader, case Bogs]

1.6.3. International research and experiences The integration of Belarus with the international community, particularly regarding international research collaborations, was perceived by interviewees to have improved knowledge availability (Fig. 8). However, interviewees acknowledged limitations regarding the direct applicability of international research to local contexts.

“[UK] bogs have quite different problems… they do not have convex bogs, they have blanket bogs. That is why their experts do not know what to do [here].” [Leader, case Bogs]

1.6.4. Knowledge-driven feedbacks Along with feedbacks to support and regulatory system reform mentioned above, initiatives used knowledge dissemination feedbacks, via awareness-raising and communication strategies (Fig. 6), to influence stakeholders in the wider system – e.g. political leaders, the general public, consumers. However, initiatives differed in their approach to dissemination of internally- generated knowledge. The leader for case Berries sought patents to protect innovations and intellectual property arising from investments in R&D. The leader for case Bogs, on the other hand, sought to disseminate project-generated learning as freely as possible.

“As a result of the project, the government adopted a policy which stipulates that at the end of its economic life our project area must be turned back into a peatland and not into a reservoir or forest as used to be the case.” [Leader, case Birds]

“We see a goal that we want to achieve in other territories in Belarus. We are moving authorities, donors and the Academy of Sciences in this direction, [by] shaping opinions…Gradually people change and their knowledge grows.” [Leader, case Bogs]