Summer 2016 www.belfercenter.org

Scientific Diplomacy: Secretary of Energy GAIL OSKIN GAIL Ernest Moniz answers a question from the audience at the Harvard Kennedy School JFK Jr. Forum following his Robert McNamara Lecture on War and Peace, “Science and Diplomacy for Solving Humanity’s Big Issues: Iran, HEU, and Climate.” The Q&A was moderated by Center director Graham Allison.

Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz: Statesman of Science and Diplomacy

by Zachary Keck

erification is a crucial part of all arms control agreements, from the Moniz, Iran, and the Center’s Mission VIntermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the 1980s to the recent Iran Secretary Moniz’s role in the Iran nuclear agreement underscores the nuclear deal, U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz explained during a recent value of merging science with international affairs. In 1973,Paul Doty, appearance at Harvard. And it is on verification where scientists can be decisive. a noted biochemist, established the Center and its mission “to advance Delivering the Robert McNamara Lecture on War and Peace at the policy-relevant knowledge about the most important challenges of JFK Jr. Forum on April 14, Moniz noted that the Department of Energy is international security and other critical issues where science, technology, “fundamentally” a science organization with two major national security environmental policy, and international affairs intersect.” missions: nuclear security and climate change. The event was co-sponsored by the Belfer Center and moderated by Center Director Graham Allison. With this mission always in mind, Center faculty and fellows work to Much of his speech was devoted to the former topic, particularly the solve global issues ranging from nuclear security and cybersecurity to recent Iran nuclear agreement in which Moniz played a central role. “The energy technology and climate change. Secretary of Defense Ashton B. negotiation fundamentals were evident from the beginning,” Moniz said. Carter (a physicist), and Science Advisor to President Obama John P. “It’s about Iran substantially rolling back its nuclear enterprise, verifiably, Holdren (a physicist), are among the Belfer Center’s current standard- in return for economic sanctions relief.” bearers in Washington. Still, that left a lot of areas to be defined, and the talks reached an impasse in early 2015. Moniz and his Iranian counterpart, Ali Akbar Salehi, were brought in to break the stalemate. Although the two men didn’t know each other, Salehi had studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where Moniz is a professor. Additionally, both men speak the language of science. OFU.S. DEPT. STATE These commonalities allowed them to forge an agreement that upheld both sides’ bottom lines. This meant that Iran could continue its peaceful nuclear activities while still being at least a year away from producing enough nuclear material for a bomb. Moniz was particularly proud of the “novel” verification measures included in the deal, such as the international surveillance of Iran’s entire nuclear supply chain. “The agreement breaks new ground,” he noted, “and Top Talks: U.S. Secretary of State is briefed by U.S. Energy I think it would be terrific if a lot of these elements could become a model” Secretary Ernest Moniz and Ambassador Wendy Sherman in Feb. 2015, prior for future arms control agreements. to a round of negotiations with Iranian officials to develop a nuclear agreement.

SEE INSIDE: 2016 Nuclear Summit Wins and Losses; Steps for Improving Security (pages 2, 4, 5)

1 From the Director Former Secretary of State Rice Discusses Persuasive Diplomacy

by Katrina Braun and Eugene B. Kogan hat is the most Wserious danger rofessors Nicholas Burns of Harvard PKennedy School, James Sebenius of facing the world today? Harvard Business School, and Robert Mnookin of Harvard Law School traveled to Stanford , George W. Bush, Mohamed ElBaradei, and Dick Cheney University in February to interview former all give the same answer: nuclear terrorism. If terrorists succeed in exploding Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice about a in New York, Boston, or London, the other issues we care diplomacy and her most consequential negotia- about will not matter much. tions while in office. The interview with Secretary In 2009, President Obama proposed an ambitious agenda to address Rice, now a professor at Stanford, was the latest this danger. Among the steps he called for was a Global Summit on Nuclear in a series of recorded discussions with former Security. Seven years and four summits later, including the final one this secretaries of state by the three faculty directors Reduced Risk: Former U.S. Senator (left), a member of the Belfer spring in Washington, we can take stock of progress—and the Belfer Center’s Center’s International Council whose achievements include the Nunn-Lugar” of The American Secretaries of State Project role in helping conceive and sustain it. Policy impact is rarely a simple case Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, chats during the Council’s annual (SOSP). Rice discussed major negotiations with of cause and effect. But consider the following: meeting with Admiral (ret.) James A. “Sandy” Winnefeld, Jr. which she was involved during President George W. Bush’s administration and shared lessons she Where did the focus on securing all weapons-usable nuclear What progress has been made since the end of the Cold War? has learned about diplomacy. material beyond the reach of terrorists come from? • A lot. In 1991, 52 countries had nuclear weapons-usable material. Key themes in the wide-ranging interview Diplomatic Dialogue: Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, following her interview at Stanford A major source was work at the Center. In the 1980s, Joe Nye, Al Today, only 22 do. included the importance of detail in diplo- University with Harvard Professors (left to right) James Sebenius, Robert Mnookin, and Nicholas Burns. Carnesale, and I ran the Avoiding Nuclear War Project that focused on Just since 2009: matic agreements, negotiating within alliances, control of nuclear weapons. In 1991 (as the Soviet Union disintegrated), • 17 countries have eliminated all nuclear materials. and knowing when to use diplomatic leverage. THE AMERICAN SECRETARIES a report by , Steve Miller, Kurt Campbell, and others iden- • Every country that still has nuclear weapons or weapons-usable material Senior diplomats, Rice said, should not shy away Secretary Rice also OF STATE PROJECT tified dangers of the Soviet Union’s loss of nuclear weapons. That report has tightened its security requirements over the past seven years. from immersing themselves in the most granu- discussed the importance informed the Nunn-Lugar act. • China has made major progress strengthening nuclear security within lar details of diplomatic negotiations. Also, she The American Secretaries of State Project is a its borders, and the Center’s Managing the Atom Project (MTA) has said, it is critical to present a united front going of persistence and collaboration between the Future of Diplomacy been a vital source of analysis and ideas outside the Chinese government into any negotiation. Rice credits her diplomatic forthrightness in diplomacy. Project at Harvard Kennedy School, the “If terrorists succeed in exploding a nuclear pushing that process along. successes in part to a strong relationship with Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School, weapon in New York, Boston, or London, the other President Bush, to clear communication within and Harvard Business School. The Project aims issues we care about will not matter much.” Who turned the summit from a dream into a reality with the upper levels of government even when others strong mutual support between Russia and the to interview all former U.S. secretaries of state far-reaching consequences? disagreed with her, and to building support United States in anti-terrorism efforts following about the most consequential negotiations • Gary Samore, the former White House weapons of mass destruction and enthusiasm for policy choices among State the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. they conducted while serving in the nation’s In 1993, Carter, Miller, Phil Zelikow, and I published Cooperative czar and the Center’s current executive director for research. Gary served Department employees. Rice gave an example of persistence and per- highest foreign policy office. Professors Burns, Denuclearization that outlined a program for preventing “loose nukes” in as sherpa for the first two summits and developed the critical process Secretary Rice also discussed the importance suasive diplomacy from the 2005 civil nuclear Mnookin and Sebenius have interviewed former the Soviet Union. Ash and I then became assistant secretaries of defense for new national commitments on nuclear security. of persistence and forthrightness in diplomacy. negotiations with India. As negotiations appeared Secretaries Kissinger, Shultz, Baker, Albright, with responsibility for implementing that program. This was followed by She described Russian President Vladimir to falter, she continued to believe that the deal Powell, and Rice. Former Secretary of State additional Center work, including John Holdren’s and Matt Bunn’s annual Who served as U.S. sherpas in 2014 and 2016? Putin as a negotiator who respects toughness was in the mutual interest of both parties. She has also agreed to participate. “Securing the Bomb” reports. • Belfer Center alumni Liz Sherwood-Randall (now deputy secretary and directness, citing as an example the clear insisted on meeting with the Indian prime min- SOSP has inspired a first-of-its-kind As fortune would have it, in 2005, a then-freshman Senator Obama read of energy) and Laura Holgate, respectively. Laura has been nominated communication by the United States when it ister to overcome a major obstacle in the talks, a interdisciplinary course, “Negotiation and my book, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, during his as ambassador and U.S. representative to UN-Vienna and the IAEA. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty move that ultimately led to the signing of the deal. Diplomacy,” that Professors Burns, Sebenius first trip to Russia as part of a Congressional delegation led by SenatorDick in 2002. Secretary Rice also shared stories of and Mnookin taught at Harvard in Spring Lugar. This became the central plank of the Obama administration’s nuclear Who helped define the stakes of this year’s summit? 2015 and will again offer in Spring 2017. Future policy agenda, incorporated in a UN Security Council Resolution. While the • Gary Samore and senior fellow Dan Poneman (former deputy secretary plans include a book about Henry Kissinger's goal of securing all nuclear weapons material to a gold standard has not yet of energy) and the Center's MTA experts were instrumental. Matt Bunn, approach to negotiation and another that will been accomplished, we are much further along than we would otherwise be. Marty Malin, Nick Roth, and Will Tobey released a definitive report, synthesize insights from all of the secretaries of Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Continuous Improvement or Dangerous state on diplomacy, negotiation, and leadership. Decline?, which warned of rising danger from nuclear terrorism in spite Additional plans include documentary films of strengthened security. It became a focal point for conversations in and case studies for use in teaching, along with Washington and was cited frequently in the press. Beyond dozens of an archive of associated research materials for op-eds and interviews, including for PBS, CNN, and CBS Evening News, scholars studying conflict resolution, mediation, our team of nuclear experts gave briefings to members of Congress and negotiation, and diplomacy.

PETE SOUSA / WHITE HOUSE WHITE / PETE SOUSA other policymakers.

Obviously, the work is not done. Proposed budget cuts to nuclear security funding and the suspension of U.S.-Russia nuclear cooperation represent SEE PAST INTERVIEWS significant steps in the wrong direction. Thus the Center is redoubling our and learn more about The American efforts to do what we can to ensure that terrorist groups like ISIS never get Lessons Learned: Former Secretary of State George P. Shultz (2nd from left) in his office at Stanford Secretaries of State Project at Treaty Toast: President Obama raises a toast to Gary Samore and his team prior to an interview in February with Harvard Professors Nicholas Burns, Robert Mnookin, and James their hands on the means to achieve their deadliest ambitions. belfercenter.org/SecState following Senate ratification of the New START treaty on Dec. 22, 2010. Sebenius to discuss his diplomatic experiences. This was the second interview with Secretary Shultz.

2 3 Nuclear Security Successes, Failures, and Suggestions for a Safe Future

AP At the Summit: U.S. President Barack Next Steps to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Obama (center) speaks during a closing session at the Nuclear During the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit, Belfer Center experts published reports and provided commentary and analysis on Security Summit in successes and continuing challenges in nuclear security around the world. Following are some actions they believe are needed to Washington, D.C., on improve the security of nuclear facilities and reduce the possibility of nuclear theft and terrorism. Friday, April 1, 2016. [Some recommendations are edited for space.] This was the fourth and last of the nuclear security summits Graham Allison, William H. Tobey Matthew Bunn, William Tobey, Hui Zhang Martin Malin, Nickolas Roth launched by Pres. “Could There Be a Terrorist “It’s Time for China to Turn Obama in 2010 with Fukushima?” Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Nuclear-Security the aim of preventing Continuous Improvement or The New York Times April 4, 2016 Pledges into Reality” nuclear terrorism Dangerous Decline? Defense One March 24, 2016 around the globe by Project on Managing the Atom Report focusing the attention • Provide armed guards at all nuclear of world leaders on facilities that hold weapons-grade (Belfer Center) March 21, 2016 • Beijing should install a complete, nuclear dangers. material or significant amounts of low- reliable, and effective security system enriched fuel. • Countries need to commit to protect to ensure that all its nuclear weapons, nuclear stocks against the full range of weapon-usable nuclear materials, • Thoroughly vet employees of nuclear plausible adversary threats, and provide nuclear facilities, and nuclear plants before they are employed. resources to fulfill that commitment. transports are effectively protected against the full spectrum of plausible Wins and Losses at the Final Summit • The U.S. can leverage its leadership • The United States and Russia should terrorist and criminal threats. in international commerce of nuclear rebuild their nuclear cooperation based material and technology. by Matthew Bunn and highly enriched uranium from the Fast • The communiqué, as expected, offers no firm on a new, equal approach. he fourth and final nuclear security summit Critical Assembly in Japan, as promised at the new commitments (though it does more firmly • Require a credible assessment of local • The U.S. should expand nuclear security Gary Samore Tsaw some serious progress, but also some last summit. establish the goal of continuous improvement terrorist threats. cooperation with Pakistan, India, and “The 2016 Nuclear Security China and exchange best practices with Summit: What to Look For” missed opportunities. • States agreed to 18 new group commitments in nuclear security). More disappointing, the • Conduct regular exercises simulating or “gift baskets,” on topics ranging from pro- “action plans” for five international institutions all countries where nuclear weapons or Asia Society March 25, 2016 armed attacks to test the plants’ weapons-usable materials exist. ON THE PROGRESS SIDE: tecting against insider threats to replacing offer few steps beyond what those institu- security systems and provide • The United States has a limited • Enough states ratified the 2005 amendment to radiological sources with less dangerous tions are already doing—certainly less than independent oversight. • Countries should take a broader ability to shape China’s plans [to approach to consolidating nuclear the Physical Protection Convention to finally technologies. Probably the most important of is needed to fill the gap left by the end of the pursue industrial-scale reprocessing • Expand current U.S. laws to allow weapons and materials to fewer bring the amendment into force. That will pro- these was the commitment to create a “Nuclear summit process. capabilities]. The best approach is likely American intelligence and policy locations around the globe and offer vide a somewhat stronger legal foundation for Security Contact Group”—a set of senior offi- • Many of the gift baskets have few specifics or to appeal to China’s bottom line, noting officials to share classified assessments incentives to shut down unneeded that the economics of this decision… nuclear security efforts – and will trigger a review cials that will keep meeting on the margins deadlines; how much they will actually do to of terrorists’ intentions and capabilities facilities and help convert them to use don’t make sense. conference that some hope could be a key new of the IAEA General Conference—to keep at accelerate progress toward their objectives with more governments. fuels that cannot be used in developing a nuclear bomb. element of the nuclear security architecture. least moderately high-level attention focused remains unknown. • The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear • China and India joined in the Strengthening on nuclear security. • Many key countries—including Pakistan, Terrorism should encourage members • Senior officials of interested countries Daniel Poneman Nuclear Security Implementation Initiative, Russia, and others—are still not participat- to share intelligence and exchange best should continue to meet to oversee “Two Reasons to Restore American thereby committing to achieve the objectives of ON THE MISSED OPPORTUNITY SIDE: ing in the initiative on strengthening nuclear security practices. implementation of existing nuclear Nuclear Leadership” International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) • We still have no progress toward building a security implementation that China and India security commitments and suggest Medium March 30, 2016 nuclear security recommendations and accept global commitment that all nuclear weapons have joined. ideas for additional steps. peer reviews of their security arrangements. and weapons-usable nuclear materials, wher- Trevor Findlay What Price Nuclear Governance: • Interested countries should develop • The U.S. should resume “a more robust • Japan and the United States removed hundreds ever they may be, need to be secured against Where do we go from here? As discussed in approaches for building confidence that role” in the expansion of nuclear power Funding the International Atomic of kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium the full spectrum of plausible adversary threats. our new report, Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: effective nuclear security measures to fulfill post-Fukushima standards for Continuous Improvement or Dangerous Decline?, Energy Agency are in place without compromising nuclear safety and to require stringent the U.S. government and other interested states Project on Managing the Atom Report sensitive information. controls against the threat of the (Belfer Center) March 24, 2016 diversion of nuclear talent, technology, need to push hard to keep high-level attention or materials to hostile groups. focused on continuous improvement in nuclear • The role the IAEA plays in global nuclear security and on combating complacency. We governance…makes it an indisput­ CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT CARNEGIE make a number of suggestions in the report on able bargain…The IAEA deserves the Presidential Power: AP how to do that (See detailed suggestions on page continuing financial and material President Barack 5 of this newsletter; see the full report at http:// support of the international community Obama speaks as belfercenter.org/PNTCIDD). in fulfilling all aspects of its mandate. China’s President Xi Jinping (right) and • What is needed is a grand budgetary France’s President bargain [incorporating] technical Francois Hollande cooperation, nuclear security, and listen during a P5+1 extra-budgetary funding into the multilateral meeting regular budget. at the Nuclear This article was originally published in the Belfer Security Summit in Nuclear Attention: Matthew Bunn (left), Martin Malin, Nickolas Roth, and William Tobey of the Belfer Center's Nuclear Security Matters and in the Washington, D.C., on Center’s Project on Managing the Atom launch their report Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Continuous Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Friday, April 1. Improvement or Dangerous Decline?​ at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, View the original at: D.C. prior to the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit in March. Carnegie’s Toby Dalton moderated the event. belfercenter.org/2016WinsLosses

4 5 Q&A: Improving U.S.-Saudi Dynamics Spotlight: Albert Carnesale

We asked two Belfer Center experts on to tell us what should be done to improve the strained relationship between Albert Carnesale is a member of the founding staff of the Belfer Center and serves on the Center’s the United States and Saudi Arabia. Nawaf Obaid, a visiting fellow at the Center, served until recently as special counselor to Prince Board of Directors and International Council. He is chancellor emeritus and professor of public Mohammed bin Nawaf and previously was special advisor for strategic communications to Prince Turki Al Faisal. Karen Elliott House, a policy and of mechanical and aerospace engineering at the University of California, Los Angeles senior fellow at the Belfer Center, is a Pulitzer Prize winning reporter and editor and former publisher at The Wall Street Journal. She is (UCLA). There, he researches and teaches courses on public policy issues with substantial scientific the author of On Saudi Arabia: Its People, Past, Religion, Fault Lines—and Future, published in September 2012. and technological dimensions.

by Josh Burek

here’s not a working on the Strategic Arms Limitations Talks impurities with a 10-cent coffee filter. But remov- (SALT I) because a memo he wrote explained in ing harmful trace minerals and microbes to a “Tsnowball’s chance plain English why a program favored by senior level at which they become undetectable is very in hell you’ll become a officials was mathematically impossible. His expensive. So it is with organizations, he says. boss’s boss saw it and brought Carnesale on Doing B+ work is relatively easy. Doing world- tenured professor.” board. “But I don’t know anything about weap- class work—and doing it consistently year after ons or the Soviets,” he protested. “Don’t worry: I year—requires extraordinary resources. In an era This blunt warning was issued to Albert read your memo,” said the official. “You’ll learn.” of proliferating think tanks, when media pres- Carnesale, a young professor of nuclear engi- The story shaped Carnesale’s conviction that sures can mean dumbing down research to mere neering at North Carolina State University, as most opportunities arise because “you’re doing punditry, Carnesale is grateful for the Center’s he considered an offer to join Harvard’s Program what you really enjoy—and are doing it well.” no-shortcuts approach to scholarship, and for the Nawaf Obaid Karen Elliott House for Science and International Affairs – the prede- devotion of donors who make it possible. he increasing discrepancy between the “Obama Doctrine” and the e can stipulate that nothing about U.S.-Saudi relations will improve cessor of the Belfer Center. For most academics, “Doing is learning.” T“Salman Doctrine” has led to a growing divergence of opinion and Win the waning months of an Obama administration that is more this would have been sufficient reason to pass up The government task forces Carnesale has Taking stock of progress on the mission of his commitment vis-à-vis the Syrian and Libyan civil wars, the rise of ISIS/ focused on outreach to its enemies than loyalty to old allies and under a the opportunity. Instead, however, it marked the served on in recent years range from climate life’s work—to reduce nuclear danger—Carnesale Al Qaeda, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the various Iran-sponsored president who seems genuinely embarrassed by a Saudi regime he sees as beginning of a journey that includes some of the change and nuclear waste to NASA’s strategic notes that while the risk today of nuclear terror- revolts via terrorist proxies. And while the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have been antithetical to his progressive values. highest peaks of university and public service: direction. Even a polymath like Carnesale is not ism is real, it simply does not compare to the cooperating militarily on the liberation of Yemen, the Kingdom has begun That said, there are opportunities for a new U.S. administration with a Lucius N. Littauer Professor of Public Policy an expert in all three, so he credits his long expe- existential threat of nuclear war during the Cold pursuing a go-it-alone approach to security in the region, as evidenced by new Mideast mindset to begin to mend badly frayed relations. and Administration. Dean of Harvard Kennedy rience teaching public policy at Harvard Kennedy War. From “Hawks, Doves, and Owls: An Agenda the recent announcement of a Saudi-led 34 nation Islamic coalition to fight First, the U.S. must show some empathy for the Saudi view that Iran, School. Harvard University Provost. Acting School with equipping him to ask the right ques- for Avoiding Nuclear War,” a volume he co-au- terror and the conducting of multi-nation military exercises, codenamed whatever its nuclear ambitions, is a clear and present threat to the region President of Harvard. Chancellor of UCLA. tions. HKS excels because it teaches students thored in 1985 with Graham Allison and Joseph Northern Thunder, on the Kingdom’s northern border in preparation for and specifically to the Saudi regime. And the U.S. must openly support Author or co-author of six books and more than how to think about policy challenges deeply Nye, to the scholarship that drove the Nunn- a possible incursion into Iraq and Syria. Such an approach clearly puts the Saudi Arabia’s efforts to thwart growing Iranian hegemony. 100 articles. Chair and member of numerous and effectively, he says. One takeaway from his Lugar Act and the Center’s deep role in the global two nations on a possible collision course. Second, the U.S. must understand the Saudi perspective that our actions blue-ribbon government commissions. government service: task forces are most effective nuclear security summits, Carnesale is proud of What, then, might be done to mend the “special relationship”? First, of commission and of omission in the region—from invading Iraq to failing when client and audience coincide. Government his and the Center’s vital work to confront this with Obama almost out of office, the next president needs to realize that to confront Syria’s Assad to nudging aside Egypt’s Mubarek—have been agencies, he says, get defensive about findings singular challenge. “You may not be able to make the Kingdom’s actions have emerged out of harsh regional necessities and antithetical to Saudi interests. Carnesale brings a rare from blue-ribbon panels set up by Congress. things perfect, but you can make them better.” thus they must be supported. All the political analysts in the world are no mix of deep technical And the Center, he says, has unquestionably match for the Kingdom’s experience on the ground, and this experience “Saudi Arabia, for all its internal knowledge and an abiding “Excellence is expensive.” made the world more secure. must be respected. Second, the next president needs to usher in a paradigm shortcomings, is an island of relative interest in public policy. Carnesale points out that a person drinking shift in how one thinks about “terrorism” in the Middle East. water from a muddy pond could remove most stability in a tempestuous regional sea.” With a Harvard affiliation spanning five “ISIS and Al Qaeda are certainly threats, but Third, we must recognize that Saudi Arabia, for all its internal shortcom- decades, Carnesale has personally mentored the many Iran-sponsored terrorist groups ings, is an island of relative stability in a tempestuous regional sea. Yes, we some of the Center’s most famous alumni. He plaguing the region—such as Hezbollah and must consistently encourage the Saudis to ensure their own future stability hired a young physicist named Ashton Carter, STEWART MARTHA by making certain domestic reforms—privatizing more of the economy, current secretary of defense, and he supervised the Shia militias in Iraq—are just as bad.” reducing dependence on oil, curbing excesses of their so-called religious the senior thesis of Daniel Poneman, former police, opening up more opportunities for women. Some of these reforms deputy secretary of energy. Like his mentor, ISIS and Al Qaeda are certainly threats, but the many Iran-sponsored already are tentatively underway; the U.S. role now should be to support Center founder Paul Doty, Carnesale brings a terrorist groups plaguing the region—such as Hezbollah and the Shia mili- these domestic changes. For its part, the Saudi ruling regime must be serious rare mix of deep technical knowledge and an tias in Iraq—are just as bad. They need to be fought as hard as ISIS and Al about its efforts at domestic economic and social reforms. abiding interest in public policy. In short, he’s Qaeda. Finally, there will be little improvement in the region until Assad Finally and most important, we need to understand the stakes. Saudi an exemplar of the Center’s unique commitment is removed, the Palestinians are free of Israeli occupation, and the many Arabia is our most important Arab ally as well as the world’s largest oil to science and international affairs. Reflecting on failed states of the post-Arab Spring era are provided with the resources producer. Its stability, along with the security of Israel, must be our high- a storied career and the Center he still visits fre- and stability they need to move forward. Washington must support Riyadh est policy priority. The louder the U.S. criticizes Saudi Arabia the more quently from his home in Los Angeles, Carnesale in pursuing these vital goals. we embolden its enemies, especially Iran and ISIS, and weaken an ally. identified several key lessons. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are connected by a variety of mutual eco- Whatever problems we have with the ruling Al Saud can only pale by com- nomic, strategic, and political interests. In order to continue to further those parison to any alternative regime that might follow them. The Al Saud are “Do what you enjoy.” mutual interests, the next president needs to support and respect Saudi right to believe “après nous la deluge” and we cannot sit by to watch the Carnesale’s career tracked steeply upward decisions in the region. Only then can the “special relationship” avoid an regime be swept away and thereby hand the region to the Iranians, the not because of naked ambition but because of Visionaries: Albert Carnesale (right), former associate director of the Belfer Center, along with eventual collision. Russians, and chaos. hard work and unpretentious communication. founding colleagues in 2007. Paul Doty (left), founded the Program for Science and International Affairs in 1973, assisted in the early years by colleagues Dorothy Zinberg, Michael Nacht, and Carnesale. Case in point: He won a coveted slot on the team 6 7 Council Adds Global Perspectives U.S., China Experts Confront New to Critical Security Questions Challenges Amid Uncertainties

Spymasters: Former Mossad Director by Nathan Levine Tamir Pardo (left) and former CIA Acting or nearly a decade, Harvard Kennedy School Director Michael Fhas contributed to mutual understanding Morell interact during between China and the United States through their discussion of an annual series of dialogues between Harvard “ISIS, Israel, and Spymasters: A Reality scholars and top Chinese academics. The latest Check” at a Harvard collaboration in this series on U.S.-China Kennedy School JFK relations, a joint conference with the Chinese Jr. Forum event. Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), was held Members of the April 14-16 at Harvard. The conference was orga- International Council nized by the Belfer Center’s Richard Rosecrance, attended the forum director of the Project on U.S.-China Relations. and discussed related While the U.S.-China relationship was the issues in their meeting the following day. official theme of the 2016 conference, an unex- pected secondary theme quickly arose: structural changes, and the uncertainty they are creating on he annual meeting of the Belfer Former Vice Chairman of the both sides of the Pacific. Collegial Exchange: Harvard’s Lawrence Summers speaks at the U.S.-China conference with Tao Wenzhao, TCenter’s International Council Joint Chiefs of Staff and Center Chinese and American experts alike stressed senior research fellow with the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Studies. in May drew members from around senior fellow James Winnefeld and the enduring importance of a close U.S.-China the world for two days of spirited Cyber Security Project Director relationship amid a world beset by new economic, trade,” a development that would have profound But rather than inspiring confrontation, such discussion on critical issues rang- Michael Sulmeyer mapped out the sociopolitical, and technological forces. While global implications. unstable ground seemed fertile for cooperation. ing from ISIS and cyber threats vast range of threats in the cyber previous dialogues had stressed opportunities for On the defense side, several noted that the rise The Chinese delegation noted that North to Russia and the U.S. economy. world, including the game-changing cooperation within the U.S.-China relationship, of non-state actors and new capabilities in cyber Korean nuclear weapons posed a risk not just to The Council members began their potential of quantum computing. there now seemed to be a recognition that the warfare are creating uncharted waters for policy- Seoul and Tokyo, but also to Beijing. This risk two-day meeting by attending a ground under the relationship was shifting, and makers and military planners in both countries. has caused China to prioritize denuclearizing Belfer Center-sponsored JFK Jr. that both sides have to find new footing. the Korean peninsula over stability for the first Are we facing a Forum titled “ISIS, Israel, and The new challenges facing the relationship “The world is running time, they said, a stance which makes further Spymasters: A Reality Check.” The new Cold War International Council member Laurence Belfer (left) talks with HKS Dean were clear. Growing economic inequality around cooperation with the U.S. more plausible. Douglas Elmendorf (right) and fellow Council member Eric Mindich. away with both of us,” one evening featured a lively debate with Russia? the globe and rising voices of nationalism and There was also broad consensus on the pos- and discussion between Michael anti-free trade populism loomed large. China’s Chinese expert warned. sibility of progress on disputes in the South Morell, Belfer Center senior fellow steady shifting of the balance of power in Asia China Sea. The Chinese delegation made clear and former deputy director of the Daniel Schrag, director of the inspired fears of “Thucydides Trap.” PresidentXi And, while North Korea and its leader remain that while China claimed all of the South China Central Intelligence Agency, and Center’s Science, Technology, and Jinping’s centralization of power cast doubt over as mercurial as ever, the hermit kingdom appears Sea within its “nine-dash line” under “historical Tamir Pardo, former director of Public Policy Program, discussed the future shape and character of the Chinese to be entering a worrying new phase of nuclear rights,” such historical rights were not automat- the Mossad, moderated by Center technology and science as tools to political system. weaponization, with the potential for more than ically equivalent to sovereignty. Control of the Director Graham Allison. help meet today’s challenges, and Regardless of ongoing economic reforms, 100 weapons by 2020. waters within the nine-dash line, and possibly Meghan O’Sullivan, director of a majority of conference participants argued The sense that new structural forces were even its land features, seemed more negotiable the Geopolitics of Energy Project, that slowing Chinese growth was more a result pushing both nations in uncertain directions than official comments from Beijing might lead Will there be explored issues currently at the of structural economic forces than of Chinese was a common thread in the comments of almost analysts to believe. another Paris- intersection of energy, security, and policy. Slower growth, they contended, would every speaker and also permeated conference Overall, scholars on both sides agreed that style attack in international politics. likely become the new normal regardless of participants’ informal conversations. “The world facing a host of global challenges, the U.S. and Europe soon? Center Director Graham Allison Council members Kay Kapoor (left) and George Kounelakis (center) meet policy decisions in Beijing. Others, meanwhile, is running away with both of us,” one Chinese China have little choice but to work together for the and Defense and Intelligence Director former Mossad Director Tamir Pardo at a Council reception. also feared that the world may have reached “peak expert warned. maintenance of a stable and functional world order. Kevin Ryan focused their comments Asked just how serious the ISIS on the current crisis in U.S.-Russian threat is, Morell and Pardo agreed: relations, asking whether we are more serious than you think. Will facing a new Cold War. there be another Paris-style attack Looking at the current eco- in Europe soon? Count on it, they nomic and political scene, Belfer said. Are we winning or losing the Center Board of Directors members fight against Islamic extremism? Lawrence Summers and Martin Losing—and badly. How long will Feldstein debated prospects for it last? Our grandchildren will still economic growth while political be fighting this war, they predicted. media consultant and Center senior The following day featured off- fellow Mike Murphy dissected the the-record sessions hosted by Center presidential campaign. faculty, senior fellows, and staff. Neeti Bhalla (right) makes a point to fellow International Council member High Stakes: Chinese and American experts discuss challenges and opportunities in U.S.-China relations at a conference in April co-hosted by the Belfer Center Michael Chertoff during the Council’s annual meeting. and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The two-day conference took place at the Harvard Faculty Club in Cambridge.

8 9 GAIL OSKIN GAIL

Belfer Center in Action ULANDAY KRYSTEN

Diplomatic Gesture: Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz poses for a photo with Defense Matters: Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter (left), a former Command and Control: Eric Rosenbach, chief of staff to Secretary of Defense Secretary of Security: Homeland Security Secretary discusses a student following his Robert McNamara Lecture on War and Peace: “Science Harvard Kennedy School professor and Center director, discusses defense Ashton B. Carter and former Center executive director for research, speaks the responsibilities of his department in a JFK Jr. Forum moderated by Center and Diplomacy for Solving Humanity’s Big Issues: Iran, HEU, & Climate.” The challenges with colleagues during a visit in April. Among those participating was to students on cybersecurity and defense topics during a seminar. Rosenbach Director Graham Allison. Johnson cited terrorism and cybersecurity as major Forum was co-sponsored by the Belfer Center. former Kennedy School dean Joseph S. Nye. previously was assistant secretary of defense for homeland and global security. areas of concern and emphasized the importance of working at the local level.

Building Resiliency: Juliette Kayyem, public policy lecturer at Harvard Kennedy Policy Priorities: Dennis Ross, distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute Acting in Time: Former CIA director Michael Hayden talks about his book Russia’s Future? Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, senior fellow with the School and a Center board member, presents “Lessons for a More Resilient and member of the Center’s International Council, speaks about his book, Playing to the Edge: American Intelligence in the Age of Terror during a Center Center’s Future of Diplomacy Project (FDP) and former under secretary of Nation” at a Center seminar. She also discussed her new book, Security Mom: Doomed to Succeed: The U.S.-Israel Relationship from Truman to Obama. Also seminar. Participants included Center Executive Director for research Gary state for democracy and global affairs, gestures during her presentation, An Unclassified Guide to Protecting Our Homeland and Your Home. pictured: Daniel Poneman, former dep. sec. of energy and Center senior fellow. Samore (left) and Michael Sulmeyer, Cyber Security Project director. “Where is Russia Headed?” MARTHA STEWART MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

In Perspective: Ambassador Wendy Sherman, Belfer Center senior fellow Ideas Central: Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Pakistan’s Part: Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi, permanent representative of Armenian Insights: Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan discusses sovereignty and former undersecretary of state, comments to John Deutch at a Center Economic Forum (WEF) speaks during a Belfer Center brainstorming seminar Pakistan to the United Nations, discusses Pakistan’s role in upholding regional and interdependence at a HKS National Security Program event moderated by seminar where she posed the question, “Where in the world are we?” Sherman with faculty, students, and fellows. Schwab launched the annual meeting of world peace and stability and its commitment to the UN Sustainable Development Graham Allison. “Economic cooperation, especially in conflict zones,” Sargsyan was lead U.S. negotiatior for the Iran nuclear agreement. leaders in the 1970s to brainstorm and consider solutions to major global issues. Goals. She spoke at the Future of Diplomacy Project’s annual South Asia Week. said, “is one of the best means for confidence building...a shortcut to peace.”

10 11 Featured Fellows The heart of the Belfer Center is its resident research community of more than 150 scholars, including faculty, practitioners, senior fellows, and—each year—a new group of research fellows from around the world. Research fellows are selected from a large number of pre- and post- doctoral applicants by the Center’s major research programs. They work collaboratively with other Center researchers, as well as on their own Center Fellows Share Insights projects, presenting and debating their findings through publications, seminars, and brainstorming sessions. These fellows go on to assume major Several fellows from different Belfer Center programs and projects described insights they’ve gained or lessons they’ve leadership roles in academia, government, business, and other fields. learned during their fellowships at the Center. As summer approaches, we bid farewell and extend our appreciation to the following fellows who are moving on to new appointments. A number of additional fellows are in the process of finalizing details on their next posts. We wish them all well!

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES POLITICAL SCIENCE NUCLEAR ISSUES Michael Poznansky, International Security Program Research Fellow I’ve learned at the Belfer Center that the frequently bemoaned gulf between Jieun Baek Evan Perkoski Mark Bell Kalman Robertson academics and policymakers can be appreciably narrowed by putting individuals from Belfer Center Fellow Research Fellow, ISP Research Fellow, ISP/MTA Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, ISP/MTA both communities in the same room. The workshops I’ve attended here are testament New Position: Ph.D. program New Position: Post-Doctoral New Position: Assistant in public policy, Oxford Research Fellow, Sié Chéou- Professor of Political Science, New Position: Senior to the power of this straightforward solution. The appetite for learning from one University Kang Center for International University of Minnesota Postdoctoral Fellow and another already exists. The Belfer Center helps to facilitate the conversation. Security and Diplomacy, Researcher, Integrated Research areas: U.S. policy in Research areas: Nuclear Korbel School, Univ. of Denver Support Center for Nuclear North Korea and the greater weapons and proliferation, inter- Nonproliferation and Nuclear East Asian region national relations theory, U.S. Research areas: Violent and Security, Japan Atomic nonviolent uprisings, dynamics and British foreign policy Energy Agency of terrorist and rebel groups Jinqiang (JC) Chen, David Eaves, Science, Technology and Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Enrico Fiorentini Research areas: Verification of nuclear nonproliferation and Giorgio Ruffolo Postdoctoral Research Public Policy Program Research Fellow Future of Diplomacy Project Fellow Postdoctoral Research Fellow, MEI Dina Bishara arms control agreements Michael Research Fellow, MEI Fellow in Sustainability Science, ETIP New Position: Returning Recent events show that a key area where In working with the Future of Diplomacy Project, to School of International Poznansky New Position: Assistant The Belfer Center is a great place that integrates Studies, Trento, Italy to Research Fellow, ISP Professor of Political Science, Jayita Sarkar important work is to be done is getting together I have taught diverse students of differing complete doctorate University of Alabama science, technology, and public policy into New Position: Assistant Postdoctoral Research Fellow, those concerned about managing cybersecurity backgrounds and opinions. What they all had in Research areas: Nonproliferation Professor in International Research areas: State-labor ISP/MTA multifaceted solutions to the most challenging with those concerned about privacy and common was their propensity to seek evidence- relations, social and protest organizations, multilateral diplo- Affairs/Intelligence Studies, New Position: Associate problems our society is facing. At Caltech, I macy, nonstate security threats movements under authoritarian democratic rights. Given all of the expertise based solutions to complex problems. In the University of Pittsburgh Director, Program in Arms rule, political transformations in received rigorous training in climate science, while Control & Domestic and both at Belfer and at the Kennedy School, this midst of a political climate ruled by emotion and Research areas: Security and Egypt and Tunisia at the Belfer Center, I have been further nourished intelligence studies, the use of International Security, is one of the best positioned places to have that unsubstantiated soundbites, I am encouraged Anita Gohdes secrecy as a tool of foreign policy University of Illinois at in the nexus of policy, energy, and finance. conversation. by the fact-driven mindsets of these students, Empirical Studies of Gender and Urbana-Champaign Here, I found great mentors and collaborators Political Violence Postdoctoral Steven Brooke knowing that they will be our future leaders. Research areas: Nuclear committed to creating a better world. Research Fellow, ISP/WAPPP Rachel Elizabeth Postdoctoral Research Fellow, MEI commerce, U.S. nonproliferation New Position: Assistant New Position: Assistant policy, nuclear relations Professor in International Whitlark Professor, Department of Relations, University of Zurich Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Political Science, University of ISP/MTA Louisville Research areas: Political DEFENSE violence, state repression,the New Position: Assistant Research areas: Islamist move- Jayita Sarkar, Project on Managing the Atom Research Fellow relationship between new media Professor, Georgia Institute, ments, non-state social service and conflict Sam Nunn School of Int'l Chris Menuey provision, electoral mobilization While at the Belfer Center, two most important realizations I had were regarding Affairs, Georgia Tech in both authoritarian and demo- Research Fellow, ISP/MTA cratic context mentorship and kindness. Offer and seek help without hesitation. Kindness works best Research areas: International New Position: Joint Exercise Jill Goldenziel security and foreign policy deci- Planner in J7, Pentagon when we pay it forward. These are timeless insights that will remain invaluable in my sion-making, proliferation Postdoctoral Research Fellow, ISP professional life no matter where I am, what I do, and who I meet. Trevor Johnston Research areas: Nuclear New Position: Associate deterrence strategies Postdoctoral Research Fellow, MEI Professor of International David Wight Relations, Marine Corps New Position: Associate Social University Command and Ernest May Fellow in History and Scientist, Defense and Political Policy, ISP Derek Salmi Staff College Sciences Department, RAND Research Fellow, ISP Karoline Steinbacher, Giorgio Ruffolo Kaho Yu, Geopolitics of Energy Corporation Research areas: International law, New Position: U.S. Foreign New Position: Operations Doctoral Research Fellow, Energy Tech- Project Research Fellow human rights, Middle East law and Policy and International Research areas: Political econ- Group Commander, RAF politics, religion and politics Security Post-Doctoral omy of authoritarianism, conflict nology Innovation Policy research group Fellowship, Dickey Center, in the Middle East Mildenhall, United Kingdom I am attracted to the Geopolitics of Energy Dartmouth College Research areas: Grand strategy, Being a pre-doctoral fellow with the Energy Project’s prestigious global connections and its WMD counterproliferation, Julia Macdonald Research areas: History of U.S. unique focus on the role of diplomatic practice foreign relations, modern Middle military logistics Technology Innovation Policy group and the Research Fellow, ISP/MTA HUMAN RIGHTS For more about Belfer Center fellows and East and North Africa EU Sustainability Initiative at the Belfer Center in a globalized world. It is a unique gateway to fellowships, see: New Position: Postdoctoral has been an incredibly enriching experience. learning from the experience of world-class fellow, Perry World House, Zachary Kaufman international leaders and experts. As a researcher belfercenter.org/fellowships University of Pennsylvania Postdoctoral Research Fellow, ISP It also helped me understand differences and similarities in how climate and energy policy working on Eurasian energy geopolitics, I Research areas: Nuclear politics, New Position: Senior Fellow, civil-military relations, U.S. Carr Center for Human are discussed in the U.S. and in Europe – an particularly enjoyed the seminar of Ambassador national security policy Rights Policy, Harvard understanding that will certainly be very Paula Dobriansky who discussed how Russia Kennedy School valuable wherever my career takes me. would react to sanctions and low oil prices. Research areas: International relations, human rights, atrocity prevention; international war crimes tribunals

Jieun Baek, Belfer Center Fellow BELFER CENTER PROGRAMS & PROJECTS WITH FELLOWSHIPS: The Belfer Center has taught me that the world is increasingly complicated yet all ISP International Security Program FDP Future of Diplomacy Project For more information on the Belfer Center MEI Middle East Initiative GEP Geopolitics of Energy Project research community of fellows, faculty, the more accessible through curiosity, rigorous research, provocative debate and MTA Project on Managing the Atom STPP Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program and students, see: relentless pursuit to understand all the ugly things in the beautiful world we live CSP Cyber Security Project Joint Fellowship: belfercenter.org/experts in. And it has fundamentally humanized research for me: trying to improve the lives of ENRP Environment and Natural Resources Program WAPPP Women and Public Policy Program fellow human beings is at the core of policy research. ETIP Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group (Harvard Kennedy School)

12 13 Hot off the Presses Newsmakers Harvard Honors Return of Air Force ROTC One hundred years after ROTC’s beginning in the United States and at Harvard, President Drew Faust and Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James restored the Air Force Reserve Officers’ Training Corps program at Harvard.

The signing symbolized the completion of a five-year effort to bring all ROTC UNIV. HARVARD / MITCHELL STEPHANIE programs back to campus after a hiatus that began during the Vietnam War. “We honor today the courage, devotion, and skill of women and men who continue to regard “I’m proud to say Harvard President Faust (left) with Air Force Secretary James at the ROTC signing. military service as public service,” President Faust Harvard has a said. Secretary James told cadets that increas- ROTC program.” from HKS, and that she is a “proud Kennedy School parent.” A longtime ingly complex challenges will demand the best —Ashton B. Carter champion of engagement with defense, the Belfer Center welcomes scores of of America’s leaders. “Leveraging the best talent senior military officers each year to meet with students and fellows. America has to offer is [its] secret weapon,” James said, adding that she looked Emblematic of the new campus climate, the student-run Harvard Crimson forward to students moving “from Harvard crimson to Air Force blue.” made “Thank you, ROTC” its lead editorial after At Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), Secretary James was introduced by James’s visit. “There are few higher callings than “...a long overdue The al-Qaeda Franchise: Innovation and Its The Inside Counsel Pursuing Sustainability: Dean Douglas Elmendorf, who noted that Harvard is proud that it has grad- service for one’s country,” it said, “and the armed step of gratitude.” The Expansion of Enemies: Why People Revolution: Resolving A Guide to the Science uated more Medal of Honor awardees than any university other than West services deserve the utmost respect and gratitude —The Harvard Crimson al-Qaeda and Its Resist New Technologies and Practice the Partner-Guardian Point and the Naval Academy. The secretary noted that her son graduated from our community.” Consequences Tension By Calestous Juma, Professor of the By Pamela Matson, William C. Clark, Practice of International Development, By Barak Mendelsohn, Fmr. Research Harvey Brooks Professor of International By Ben W. Heineman, Jr., Senior Harvard Kennedy School Fellow, International Security Program Science, Public Policy, and Human Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and Investigating Cyberwar and Diplomacy on the Screen Development, Harvard Kennedy School, International Affairs and Krister Anderson Oxford University Press Oxford University Press On April 29, the Belfer Center America’s Diplomats, a documen- (January 2016) (June 2016) Princeton University Press Ankerwycke sponsored a special screening of Alex tary produced by the Foreign Policy (2016) (April 2016) Gibney’s film Zero Days, a docu- Association, highlights the contribution The al-Qaeda Franchise Drawing from nearly 600 years mentary thriller about the world of of American diplomats to the nation’s asks why al-Qaeda adopted a of technology history, Innovation Sustainability is a global imper- The Inside Counsel Revolution: cyberwar that explores Stuxnet, the security and well-being, and provides branching-out strategy, introduc- and Its Enemies identifies the ative and a scientific challenge like Resolving the Partner-Guardian U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear a portrait of the United States Foreign ing seven franchises spread over tension between the need for no other. This concise guide pro- Tension by Ben W. Heineman, Jr., infrastructure. Based in part on Center Service. The film, broadcast over PBS the Middle East, Africa, and South innovation and the pressure to vides students and practitioners former general senior fellow David Sanger’s book stations, illustrates the responsibilities, Asia. After all, transnational ter- maintain continuity, social order, with a strategic framework for counsel and a founding father of the Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Screening with Michael Sulmeyer, achievements, and challenges of United On-screen interview with Nicholas Burns. Alex Gibney, and David Sanger. rorist organizations can expand and stability as one of today’s linking knowledge with action in inside counsel movement, describes Wars and Surprising Use of American States diplomacy in the 21st Century, and features interviews with diplomats, through other organizational biggest policy challenges. It reveals the pursuit of sustainable develop- the past, present, and future of this Power, the documentary includes interviews with the Belfer Center’s Gary government officials, and experts including the Belfer Center’s Nicholas strategies. Forming franchises the extent to which modern ment, and serves as an invaluable transformation. He takes a critical Samore, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and Olli Heinonen. Zero Days offers a cau- Burns, Cathryn Clüver, Joseph Nye, and . The film will was not an inevitable outgrowth technological controversies grow companion to more narrowly and careful look at the central role tionary tale about the future of a new generation of weapons of enormous be part of the United States Diplomacy Center, America’s first museum of of al-Qaeda’s ideology or its U.S.- out of distrust in public and private focused courses dealing with sus- of general counsel in advancing precision. diplomacy, now under construction in Washington, D.C. focused strategy. The efforts to institutions. Using detailed case tainability in particular sectors the core mission of today’s corpo- For more, see http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/zero-days/ For more, see http://americasdiplomats.com/ create local franchises have also studies of coffee, the printing press, such as energy, food, water, and ration: to achieve high performance undermined one of al-Qaeda’s pri- margarine, farm mechanization, housing, or in particular regions with high integrity and sound risk mary achievements: the creation electricity, mechanical refrigeration, of the world. management. He explains how to Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and The Pivot before the Pivot: U.S. Strategy to the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion Preserve the Power Balance in Asia of a transnational entity based on recorded music, transgenic crops, resolve the critical tension facing Vol. 40 No. 4 Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson Nina Silove religious, not national, affiliation. and transgenic animals, it shows “This is a beautiful, lucid, and inside counsel—being partner to Spring 2016 how new technologies emerge, take desperately needed book about the the board of directors, the CEO During the 1990 German reunification negotiations, did The United States’ strategic reorientation toward the Asia “An extremely illuminating root, and create new institutional sustainability challenge. The authors and business leaders, but ultimately the United States promise the Soviet Union that it would Pacific began not under the Barack Obama administra- discussion of an important, ecologies that favor their accomplish a mission impossible: being guardian of the corporation. International Security is not expand NATO into Eastern Europe? Although no tion, but under the George W. Bush administration. As written agreement exists, archival materials reveal that part of this reorientation, the Bush administration pur- neglected subject—the cooperative establishment in the marketplace. providing deep analyses of complex America’s leading journal of adaptive social-environmental security affairs. U.S. officials did indeed offer the Soviets informal non- sued a series of military, political, and economic policies and organizational expansions “Ben Heineman, a renowned expansion assurances, while keeping open the possibility aimed at engaging with and balancing against China, not of terrorist groups. The focus “An insightful book that addresses systems while using simple terms pioneer at GE, has written an of expansion and seeking to maximize U.S. power in post– containing it. and compelling metaphors to expose The journal is edited at Harvard is on Al-Qaeda, showing how one of the paradoxes of our time, extraordinary and definitive book Kennedy School’s Belfer Center Cold War Europe. the crucial steps we need to take its expansion and decline are namely why generations that have on the role of the general counsel in and published quarterly by the intimately related. All students of for long-term inclusive well-being. benefited so much from innovation companies today.” MIT Press. Questions may be Rebel Diplomacy in Civil War Understanding the Islamic State— terrorism will find this intriguing, A must-read for practitioners and directed to [email protected] A Review Essay are so resistant to it….A must-read —Brad Smith Reyko Huang unique analysis very valuable.” scholars alike.” for everyone involved in technology President and Chief Legal Daniel Byman development and policy.” When and why do rebel groups conduct diplomacy during —David C. Rapoport —Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Officer, Microsoft Corporation civil wars? The groups that are most likely to engage in Policymakers’ lack of understanding of the Islamic State Founding Editor, —Louise O. Fresco Founder and Director of the diplomacy are those seeking to secede and to acquire do- has led to flawed assessments of the threat the group poses Terrorism and Political President of Wageningen Potsdam Institute for Climate mestic political backing. Diplomacy is crucial to securing and how best to fight it. Daniel Byman reviews several Violence University and Research Impact Research Follow us on Twitter international legitimacy for secessionist groups, which in recent books that offer new insights regarding the Islamic @journal_is turn increases rebels’ support at home. State and discusses the group’s ideology and strategy, as Centre, The Netherlands well as U.S. and allied counterterrorism efforts. Compiled by Susan Lunch, ISP/STPP Compiled by International Security staff

14 15 Nonprofit Org. U.S. Postage PAID Nashua, NH The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Permit No. 375 Science and International Affairs Graham Allison, Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617-495-1400 • Fax: 617-495-8963 www.belfercenter.org

Belfer Center Newsletter, Summer 2016 Editor: Sharon Wilke, Assoc. Director, Communications [email protected] Designer: Andrew Facini, Publications & Design Coordinator [email protected] Josh Burek, Director, Global Communications and Strategy [email protected] Arielle Dworkin, Digital Communications Manager [email protected] The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant Bennett Craig, Photographer/Multimedia Producer knowledge about the most important challenges of international security and other critical [email protected] issues where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect, and (2) to prepare future generations of leaders for these arenas. The Communications Office was assisted with this newsletter by Monica Achen, Casey Campbell, Krysten Hartman, Eugene Subscribe to Belfer Center publications at www.belfercenter.org/subscribe Kogan, Susan Lynch, and Chris Mawhorter.

All photos by Belfer Center unless otherwise noted. Follow us on our various @BelferCenter social media channels:

Belfer in Brief Mediterranean Migration: Internet Governance: Advancing a Understanding and Responding Strategic Vision for the Future

Internet-work: In the Field: Cyber Security Harvard students Project Senior meet with Advisor Melissa representatives Hathaway talks from UNHCR in about upcoming Morocco during a challenges in winter field study the cyber field course hosted by during a seminar the Middle East in the Belfer Initiative. Center Library.

In the last year, over a million refugees and migrants entered the As members of the Global Commission on Internet Governance, Belfer European Union through dangerous routes across the Mediterranean Sea. Center International Council member Michael Chertoff, Cyber Security As the EU grapples with accommodating this influx of people, the Middle Project senior advisor Melissa Hathaway, and University Distinguished East Initiative (MEI) continues to draw on its experts to better understand Service Professor and Center board member Joseph S. Nye are taking part in the causes of the crisis and develop sustainable solutions. meetings to articulate and advance a strategic vision for the future of Internet In March, MEI hosted 16 Harvard graduate students who participated in governance. The Commission, established in January 2014 by the Centre for the January-term field course in Morocco and Italy, (led by ProfessorClaude International Governance Innovation (CIGI) and Chatham House, conducts Bruderlein), to report on their findings. They shared their experiences and supports independent research on Internet-related dimensions of global meeting with government officials, civil society actors, academic experts, public policy. It plans to issue an official report this summer. and leaders of international organizations to explore the issue through an interdisciplinary lens. Earlier this year, MEI Associate Philippe Fargues, director of the Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute, Bolstering Negotiations in Syria hosted the students to launch the In the Same Boat podcast, which along Orga Cadet, a Belfer Center International Global Affairs student fellow, with a policy paper, charts the evolution of the students’ analyses and makes has been named a 2016 Arthur C. Helton Fellow. The highly competitive recommendations for EU member states based on Morocco’s experience fellowship includes a micro-grant to support Cadet’s postgraduate work in and approach to managing migration. Istanbul, where he will provide legal and policy advice on peace negotiations to the Syrian Opposition Coalition. The fellowship was announced during Listen to the podcast and download the paper at the annual meeting of the American Society of International Law in April. http://belfercenter.org/SameBoat

16 Printed on 100% recycled paper