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Global Inequality: Beyond the Bottom Billion-A Rapid Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries

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Global Inequality: Beyond the Bottom Billion-A Rapid Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY WORKING PAPER GLOBAL INEQUALITY: BEYOND THE BOTTOM BILLION A Rapid Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries Isabel Ortiz Matthew Cummins April 2011 UNICEF POLICY AND PRACTICE UNICEF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY WORKING PAPER APRIL 2011 Global Inequality: Beyond the Bottom Billion – A Rapid Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries © United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), New York, April 2011 Policy, Advocacy and Knowledge Management, Division of Policy and Practice UNICEF 3 UN Plaza, New York, NY 10017 April 2011 This is a working document. It has been prepared to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and to stimulate discussion. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies or views of UNICEF or the United Nations. The text has not been edited to official publication standards, and UNICEF accepts no responsibility for errors. The designations in this publication do not imply an opinion on legal status of any country or territory, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers. The editors of the series are Isabel Ortiz and David Anthony of UNICEF Policy and Practice Division. For more information on the series, or to submit a working paper, please contact [email protected] or [email protected] . ii Global Inequality: Beyond the Bottom Billion A Rapid Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries Isabel Ortiz Associate Director, Policy and Practice, UNICEF Matthew Cummins Staff Consultant, Policy and Practice, UNICEF JEL Classification: D6, D63, D3, D31, O1, O2 Keywords: income inequality, income distribution, quintiles, equity, crisis recovery, development policy Comments may be addressed by email to the authors [email protected] and [email protected], cc: [email protected] iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank the following persons for their feedback and suggestions regarding data and the quantitative methodologies used in the paper: Giovanni Andrea Cornia (Professor of Economics, University of Florence), Martin Ravallion (Director of the Development Research Group, World Bank) and Branko Milanovic (Lead Economist, World Bank). Special thanks also to Richard Morgan, Director of Policy and Practice, UNICEF, for his guidance and comments. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies or views of UNICEF or of the United Nations. iv Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ vii Résumé Analytique ....................................................................................................................... viii Resumen Ejecutivo .......................................................................................................................... ix 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 10 2. Income Inequality at the Global Level .................................................................................. 10 A. Market exchange rates ................................................................................................. 11 B. PPP exchange rates ....................................................................................................... 15 C. The takeaway ................................................................................................................ 19 3. Global Income Inequality Trends and the Poor, Children and Women................................ 19 A. Income inequality in historical perspective .................................................................. 20 B. The poor ........................................................................................................................ 20 C. Children and youth ....................................................................................................... 21 D. Women .......................................................................................................................... 22 E. Middle classes ............................................................................................................... 23 F. Alternative metrics: Wealth distribution ...................................................................... 25 4. Income Inequality across Regions......................................................................................... 26 5. Income Inequality at the National Level ............................................................................... 31 6. Why Income Inequality is Dysfunctional .............................................................................. 32 A. Slows economic growth ................................................................................................ 32 B. Results in health and social problems .......................................................................... 33 C. Generates political instability ....................................................................................... 35 D. Leads to severer social inequalities, especially among children .................................. 36 7. Beyond the Bottom Billion: Bringing Equity to the Development Agenda .......................... 38 A. Striking the right balance between equity and growth ................................................ 38 B. Mainstreaming equity in the development agenda ..................................................... 39 C. Financing equitable policies: Transfers across three levels .......................................... 41 8. Impacts of the Global Economic Crisis and the Need for a Recovery for All ........................ 42 A. Employment .................................................................................................................. 43 B. High commodity prices ................................................................................................. 44 C. Fiscal consolidation ....................................................................................................... 44 9. Concluding Remarks.............................................................................................................. 45 Annex 1. Estimating Income Inequality: Methodology and Assumptions.................................... 47 Annex 2. Income Distribution and Gini Data by Country.............................................................. 49 References .................................................................................................................................... 62 Boxes Box 1. Two Different Benchmarks for Measuring GDP or Income ............................................................. 15 Box 2. Gini Indices and Caveats .................................................................................................................. 26 Box 3. Lessons from the Late Industrializers............................................................................................... 39 v Tables Table 1. Global Income Distribution by Population Quintiles, 1990-2007 (market exchange rates) ......... 12 Table 2. Poorest and Richest Population Quintiles in the World, 2007 (market exchange rates) ............. 12 Table 3. Global Income Distribution by Countries, 1990-2007 (market exchange rates) .......................... 14 Table 4. Poorest and Richest Countries in the World, 2007 (market exchange rates) ............................... 14 Table 5. Global Income Distribution by Population Quintiles, 1990-2007 (PPP exchange rates) .............. 16 Table 6. Poorest and Richest Population Quintiles in the World, 2007 (PPP exchange rates) ................... 17 Table 7. Global Income Distribution by Countries, 1990-2007 (PPP exchange rates) ................................ 18 Table 8. Poorest and Richest Countries in the World, 2007 (PPP exchange rates) .................................... 19 Table 9. Estimated Global Gini Indices, 1820-2002 .................................................................................... 20 Table 10. Results of Income Distribution by Income Levels, 1990-2007 .................................................... 24 Table 11. Wealth Inequality in Selected Countries ..................................................................................... 25 Table 12. Gini Index Values by Region, 1990-2008 ..................................................................................... 26 Table 13. Top Performers in Reducing Inequality, 2000-08 ....................................................................... 27 Table 14. Per Capita GDP in Selected Countries and Regions, 1-2000 ....................................................... 38 Table 15. Mainstreaming Equity in the Development Agenda ................................................................... 40 Figures Figure 1. Global Income Distribution by Population Quintiles, 1990-2007 (market exchange rates) ........ 11 Figure 2. A Visualization of Global Income Distribution, 2007 (market exchange rates) ........................... 13 Figure 3. Global Income Distribution by Countries, 1990-2007 (market exchange rates) ......................... 14 Figure 4. Global Income Distribution by Population Quintiles, 1990-2007 (PPP exchange rates) ............. 16 Figure 5. A Visualization of Global Income Distribution in 2007 (PPP exchange rates) ............................
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