UNIVERSITE PARIS-DAUPHINE ECOLE DOCTORALE DE DAUPHINE Centre De Géopolitique De L'énergie Et Des Matières Premières (CGEMP-Leda)
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UNIVERSITE PARIS-DAUPHINE ECOLE DOCTORALE DE DAUPHINE Centre de Géopolitique de l'énergie et des matières premières (CGEMP-LEDa) INTEGRER L’AGRICULTURE DANS LES POLITIQUES D’ATTENUATION CHINOISES *** INTEGRATING AGRICULTURE INTO THE CHINESE MITIGATION POLICIES Thèse pour l’obtention du titre de DOCTEUR EN SCIENCES ECONOMIQUES Présentée et soutenue par Wen WANG le 15 janvier 2015 devant le jury composé de : M. Christian de Perthuis Professeur associé à l'Université Paris-Dauphine Directeur de thèse M. Dominic Moran Professeur à Scotland's Rural College Rapporteur M. Philippe Delacote Chargé de recherche à l’Institut National de la Rapporteur Recherche Agronomique M. Erda Lin Professeur à Chinese Academy of Agricultural Examinateur M. Patrice Geoffron Professeur à l'Université Paris-Dauphine Examinateur M. Pierre-André Jouvet Professeur à l'Université Paris Ouest-Nanterre Examinateur M. Xiaotang Ju Professeur à China Agricultural University Examinateur L’Université Paris-Dauphine n’entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux opinions émises dans les thèses: ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres à leurs auteurs. 2 Acknowledgement/ Remerciement First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest and sincere gratitude to my PhD advisors Prof. Christian de Perthuis and Prof. Lin Erda. It has been an honor to be their PhD student. This dissertation is the fruit of an international cooperation between the two research centers in France and China. My PhD studies would not be possible without their continuous supports, insightful guidance, and encouragement during the past four years from the two countries. I appreciate all their contributions of time, ideas and funding to make my research experience productive and simulating. Their observations and suggestions helped me to establish the overall orientation of the research and to move forward to achieve my goal. I’m deeply inspired by and benefit a lot from their solid expertise as well as passionate working attitudes. I am especially grateful for Prof. Dominic Moran at Scotland's Rural College who devoted a lot of time and energy to help me on the MACC research, offered opportunities to have access to required information, and engaged me in exciting research projects. My sincere thanks also go to Prof. Ju Xiaotang at the Chinese Agricultural University who provided insightful opinions on the research directions and gave continuous supports to my research work. I thank all the colleagues at the Climate Economics Chair in France and the Climate Change and Agriculture research group of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Both groups have been a source of friendships as well as good advice and collaboration. I am grateful for Prof. Patrice Geoffron and Prof. Pierre-André Jouvet for their academic advices as well as their help in administrative procedure. It is my honor to be able to contribute to the research initiative “Agriculture, Food, Forestry and Climate Change” of the Chair and thanks Philippe Delacote, Benjamin Dequiedt, Gabriela Simonet and other members of the team. I wish to express my sincere appreciation to Preety Nadarasapillay, Raphaël Trotignon, Boris Solier, Simon Quemin, Stephane Buttigieg and other colleagues at the Chair. It has been such a joy to be able to work with you and thanks for your help on both my work and daily life. In regards to the CAAS research team, I would like to acknowledge Prof. Ju Hui and Prof. Guo Liping for their scientific assistance and Li Yingchun, Gao Ji, Han Xue, Hu Wei for their kindest help and those who gave me the possibility to complete this thesis. I appreciated the collaboration with Dali Rani Nayak at University of Aberdeen and Frank Koslowski at Scotland’s Rural College via the MACCs and other research. I would like to take this opportunity to extend my gratitude to my colleagues in BlueNext S.A who has financed the first three year of my research work. I would like to thank the Business Development Team of BlueNext - Claire Dufour, Pierre Guigon and David Rapin, for their enthusiastic help whenever necessary. 3 Last but not least, I would like to thank my family and friends for all their love and encouragement. My parents and my brother are faithful and supportive in all my pursuits. And most of all thanks to my husband Fu Qiang who has always been supportive, encouraging, and patient in my life. 4 Abstract in English This thesis provides an integrated evaluation of the overall technical and economic mitigation potential in Chinese agriculture and the conditions of putting a carbon price in this sector. The research scope is cropland emissions and particularly those related to synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use. The thesis is articulated around the construction of a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) which offers a rational framework for combining biophysical and economic data to reflect mitigation costs and potentials. This tool allows the aggregation of mitigation potentials arising from the application of a subset of cost-effective measures above a notional baseline level. An analysis of Chinese climate policies reveals that agriculture is nearly absent in the current national mitigation strategy. We therefore intend to assess the technical, economic and political feasibility of integrating agriculture into domestic mitigation policies. In the first place, the emissions trends and calculation methods are assessed to determine a rigorous approach to build baseline scenarios from projected business-as-usual activities to 2020. Secondly, we identify nine cropland mitigation measures and evaluate their abatement rates and future applicability beyond the baseline scenario to conclude a total feasible technical mitigation potential. The economic potential of each scenario is then compared by using estimated implementation costs of different mitigation measures relative to conventional farming practices. The MACC results show that agriculture provides significant mitigation potentials and is able to offset about one-third of the baseline emissions. In addition, realisation of one-third of this mitigation potential is cost-negative for farmers. We finally examine the conditions of using economic instruments to reduce emissions at the lowest cost for the agricultural sector. Given the institutional, behavioural and social obstacles, we strongly suggest restructuring the current fertilizer subsidy regime to send a clear political signal from central planning. Scaling-up offset projects using carbon intensity as the standardized baseline is recommended and could pave the way for an experimental emission trading scheme in agriculture. In light of China’s strong concern on safeguarding its food security, case studies on regional cereal production are carried out in all steps, including the analysis of provincial greenhouse gas intensity of production, regional abatement potential related to synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use as well as disparities of implementation cost among certain regions. Key words : Chinese agriculture, marginal abatement cost curve, cost effectiveness, mitigation potential, pricing carbon, Chinese climate policy 5 Résumé en français Cette thèse offre une évaluation du potentiel d'atténuation technique et économique global dans l'agriculture Chinoise et des conditions nécessaires à la formation d’un prix du carbone dans ce secteur. Le champ de recherche inclut les émissions venant de terres cultivées et en particulier celles liées à l'utilisation d'engrais azotés synthétiques. Il s'articule autour de la construction d'une courbe de coûts marginaux de réduction (MACC), qui offre un cadre rationnel pour combiner les données biophysiques et économiques afin de refléter les coûts et les potentiels d'atténuation. Cet outil permet d'agréger le potentiel d'atténuation découlant de l'application d'un sous-ensemble de mesures coût-efficacité en dessus d'un niveau de référence désignée. Une analyse des politiques climatiques chinoises révèle que l'agriculture est presque absente de la stratégie nationale d'atténuation. Nous avons donc l'intention d’examiner la faisabilité du point de vue technique, économique et politique, d’intégrer l'agriculture dans les politiques domestiques d’atténuation. En premier lieu, la tendance et les méthodes de calcul des émissions sont évaluées afin de déterminer une approche rigoureuse permettant de construire des scénarios de référence à partir de prévisions des activités ‘business-as-usual’ pour 2020. Deuxièmement, nous identifions neuf mesures d'atténuation des sols cultivés, nous évaluons leur taux d'abattement et leur applicabilité future au-delà du scénario de base pour obtenir un potentiel total d'atténuation techniquement faisable. Leur traduction en potentiel économique est alors faite en comparant les coûts de mise en œuvre des différentes options d'atténuation relatives aux pratiques agricoles conventionnelles. Les résultats des MACC montrent que l’agriculture offre un potentiel d'atténuation important, qui pourrait compenser environ un tiers des émissions de référence et dont un tiers pourrait être réalisé au coût négatif pour les agriculteurs. Nous examinons enfin l’utilisation des instruments économiques pour réduire les émissions au moindre coût dans le secteur agricole. Compte tenu des obstacles institutionnels, comportementaux et sociaux, nous suggérons fortement d’engager une réforme dans le système des subventions d'engrais afin d'envoyer un signal politique clair aux agriculteurs. L’utilisation de l’intensité du carbone comme référence