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A Strong Opening Robert Patterson Research Analyst | Downtown Chicago

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A Strong Opening Robert Patterson Research Analyst | Downtown Chicago Research & Forecast Report DOWNTOWN CHICAGO | OFFICE First Quarter 2017 A Strong Opening Robert Patterson Research Analyst | Downtown Chicago Chicago’s downtown office market Market Indicators Q1 2016 Q4 2016 CURRENT opened 2017 with yet another strong VACANCY 11.8% 12.0% 12.4% quarter of tenant demand, posting QTR ABSORPTION 203,482 -41,968 386,271 386,271 square feet of positive net YTD ABSORPTION 203,482 900,878 386,271 absorption as the market continues to RENTAL RATE $36.78 $37.97 $38.73 exude healthy fundamentals. Despite the strong demand, the 2.4 million square feet of supply delivered to the market over the past six months with the opening Although some of this shadow space has already transitioned of 150 N. Riverside and 444 W. Lake has pushed the overall vacancy to vacant space, the majority of the relocations causing shadow rate up from 11.3 percent during the third quarter of 2016 to its space to become vacant space will occur over the next six current rate of 12.4 percent. months, meaning the market will gradually transition away For the second consecutive quarter, Chicago’s Central Business from its two-year run as a landlords’ market, inching closer to District added a trophy tower to the market, as John O’Donnell’s historical equilibrium near 13 percent vacancy. While tenants will 1,284,404 square foot development at 150 N. Riverside opened its have more space options over the second half of the year, rental doors for occupancy, triggering a 40-basis point increase in the rate growth is likely to flatten over the same period, with strong overall vacancy rate to 12.4 percent. The building was delivered with leasing activity during the first quarter in addition to anticipated approximately 83 percent of the building’s rentable area preleased, strong demand in the coming months likely precluding rates from indicating the market’s strong appetite for new supply after a dearth dropping. of new construction ranging from 2010 through late 2016. Leasing activity was robust during the first quarter, with the six Trends largest leases of the quarter consisting of tenants expanding their footprints amidst an increasingly strong job market. Overall, the CBD remained a landlord’s market during the first While the trend of the city’s largest users reducing their overall quarter as rent exceeded historic highs and minimal concessions footprints remains intact, the continued growth of Chicago’s were granted across all building classes. While vacancy has risen technology sector, in addition to the local economy’s strong substantially over the past two quarters by space that has yet to be performance, has led a number of smaller users to increase occupied in the new towers, the effective softening in the market their space requirements. The largest lease transaction of the will begin in the coming months as the entire 1.5 million square feet quarter consisted of Outcome Health signing a lease to occupy of shadow space created by the movement of tenants into the new 394,000 square feet at 515 N. State, followed by Nielsen’s lease developments becomes newly vacant space. for 215,000 square feet at 200 W. Jackson. DISCLAIMER: For this quarter’s report and those following, Colliers has reclassified its building inventory in order to keep up-to-date with Chicago’s modernizing assets. Notably, our Class A Inventory now includes marquee assets in the Merchandise Mart and 600 W. Chicago, as recent & ongoing renovations at the buildings have led us to now consider them Class A assets. In all, we reclassified a significant number of buildings within our inventory to classes we believe today’s market deems accurate. We plan on making no additional changes in the near future and will alert our readership upon future changes in order to ensure the statistics within our report maintain clarity and accuracy. Trends (continued) Chicago’s office sector experienced another slow quarter of investment sales activity, with four properties totaling 1,698,445 square feet trading. The increasing interest rate environment, transitioning office market, and high-pricing achieved in recent sales offer potential buyers few opportunities to attain strong yields in the short term. Despite the limited number of investment sales transactions, Blackstone’s recently announced $500 million investment to revamp the Willis Tower and 601W Companies ongoing $500 million rehabilitation of the Old Post Office illustrate that investors strongly believe in Chicago’s long-term health. Outlook Looking ahead, fundamentals suggest that both tenants and landlords feel confident in the future despite the risks increased property taxes, anticipated interest rate increases, local political strife and crime rates pose to Chicago’s market. Continued corporate migration into the CBD will continue to be a key factor for the market moving forward as approximately 2.65 million square feet of Class A product is set to hit the market by the end of 2018 and many traditional tenants are actively working to downsize their spaces to reduce costs. As this additional supply hits the market and several large tenants are scheduled to downsize their real estate footprints, such as CNA Financial cutting its space by approximately 450,000 square feet via its 2018 relocation, it is likely that the market will shift further in favor of tenants by the end of 2018. Despite momentum moving in tenants favor, the health of Chicago’s downtown market appears to have a bright future. The announced headquarter relocations into the CBD by Hickory Farms from Ohio and EXP from the Toronto area, coupled with Nielsen’s decision to relocate its suburban operations into the CBD highlighted Chicago’s ongoing trend of attracting corporations of all varieties to its urban core, as Chicago’s highly-skilled workforce, diverse local economy and world class infrastructure continue to make the city extremely attractive to employers. 2 Research & Forecast Report | First Quarter 2017 | Downtown Chicago / Office | Colliers International Statistical Highlights Net Absorption & Vacancy | Chicago CBD Office Market The CBD opened 2017 with 386,271 square feet of positive net absorption during the first quarter, bringing the total amount 1,600,000 14.5% 1,451,216 14.3% of positive net absorption posted over the past 12 months to 1,400,000 1,363,241 1,319,790 14.0% 13.9% 1,287,149 square feet of positive demand. Tenant flight to quality 1,200,000 1,600,000 14.5% Vacanc 13.5% 1,451,216 13.5% remained extremely visible over the same period, as the CBD’s 1,000,000 14.3% 1,400,000 1,363,241 900,878 1,319,790 822,083 Class A inventory reported 1,611,865 square feet of positive net y 14.0% 800,000 13.9% 12.9% 13.0% 1,200,000 Square Footage absorption, Class B inventory posted 285,124 square feet of Vacanc 600,000 13.5% 499,598 12.5% 13.5% negative net absorption, and Class C inventory experienced 1,000,000 900,878 12.4% 400,000 822,083 386,271 35 y 800,000 13.0% 39,592 square feet of negative net absorption. 12.9% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 200,000 31 Square Footage 600,000 30 0 499,598 11.5% 12.5% The average direct asking rental rate in the CBD currently 2011 2012 2013 26 2014 2015 26 2016 27 2017 12.4% 400,000 386,271 resides at $38.73 per square foot gross, an increase from 25 Absorption Vacancy 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% $37.97 per square foot in the fourth quarter. The average overall 200,000 20 19 Source:0 CoStar, Colliers International Research 11.5% asking rental rate increased by $1.40 since the third quarter of 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 172017 15 2016, driven by the delivery of the two A-plus towers and their Number of Sales Absorption Vacancy corresponding market-high asking rates. 10 9 The CBD’s overall vacancy increased by 40 basis points during $50.00 5 4 the first quarter, ending the year at 12.4%. The increase in $45.00 vacancy was caused by 150 N. Riverside’s delivery of 1,284,404 $40.00 0 Asking$35.00 Gross Rental2010 Rates2011 | 20Chicago12 20 13CBD 20Office14 2015 Market 2016 2017 YTD square feet to the market. Over the next two quarters, the $30.00 $50.00 Class A Class B Class C vacancy rate is likely to increase slightly, as existing shadow $25.00 $45.00 space becomes newly vacant space when tenants relocate to $20.00 $40.00 $15.00 the recently completed office towers. $35.00 $10.00 $30.00 $5.00 $25.00 $0.00 4,000,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $20.00 3,652,913 3,500,000 $15.00 Class A Class B Class C Average 3,000,000 $10.00 $5.00 2,500,000 $0.00 2,000,000 1,892,460 1,897,981 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1,504,364 1,500,000 1,284,404 Square Footage Class A Class B Class C Average 1,081,702 1,000,000 933,710 Source: CoStar, Colliers International Research665,000 479,000 531,190 500,000 0 0000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD Submarket Vacancy Rates | Chicago CBD Office Market 20.0% 15.0% 14.3% ) 13.6% 13.5% 12.6%12.5% 12.6% (% 12.0% 12.0% 11.2% 11.7% 10.0% 10.0% 9.6% 9.8% 8.5% 9.0% Vacancy 5.0% 0.0% Central Loop East Loop North Michigan Ave.
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