Core Strategy
Topic paper Demography, deprivation and social exclusion
Demography, Deprivation and Social Exclusion
This is the first in a series of topic papers summarising the evidence base for the North Somerset Core Strategy document.
Other topic papers available in this series:
Settlement function and hierarchy Housing Economy Retail Leisure, tourism and culture Resources (including minerals, waste, recycling, energy consumption) Natural environment (including climate change, biodiversity, green infrastructure, countryside, natural environment and flooding) Transport and communications Sustainable construction / design quality including heritage Summing up / spatial portrait
For further information on this topic paper please contact:
Angie Walpole Research and Monitoring Supervisor Planning Policy and Research Somerset House Oxford Street Weston-super-Mare BS23 1TG
Tel: 01275 888540 Fax: 01275 888569 [email protected]
North Somerset Pre-Production Evidence Topic Paper: Demography, Deprivation and Social Inclusion Location Map
Population The population of North Somerset at the time of the 2001 Census was 188,564. This was an increase of 6.3% on the 1991 Census figure of 177,472.
The population of the four main towns in North Somerset at the time of the 2001 Census was:
Weston-super-Mare 74,920 Portishead 17,130 Clevedon 21,957 Nailsea 17,432
Percentage of Population
30.3% Weston-super-Mare 39.7% Portishead Clevedon Nailsea Other areas 9.2%
11.6% 9.1%
Source: 2001 Census
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2005 mid-year estimate for North Somerset suggests the population has risen to 195,100. This is an increase of 6,536 (3.5% or 0.9% per annum) since the last Census and an increase of 2,100 (1.1%) since the 2004 mid year estimate.
The 2005 mid year estimate breaks the population down as follows
Children (0-15 years) 36,300 (18.6%) Working age (16-59F/64M) 114,200 (58.5%) Older People (60F+/65M+) 44,600 (22.9%) Total 195,100
North Somerset has a higher percentage of older people than the South West and England and Wales. The number of older people (60+F / 65+M) in North Somerset is 1.1% higher than in the South West and 4.2% higher than in England and Wales.
North Somerset has a lower percentage of working age population than the South West and the country as a whole. The percentage of children is 0.3% higher than in the South West and 0.7% less than national figure. Age Breakdown of Population
100% 90% 22.9 21.8 18.7 80% 70% 60% Older People
50% 58.5 59.9 62.0 Working Age 40% Children 30% 20% 10% 18.6 18.3 19.3 0% North Somerset South West England & Wales
Source: ONS 2005 Mid-year Estimates
Looking specifically at the older population, 9.9% of North Somerset’s total population is aged over 75 and 2.8% are over 85 years of age. Both these figures are substantially higher than the figures for England and Wales. The percentage of population over 75 is almost 30% higher and the percentage of over 85s is 40% higher as a percentage of total population.
Percentage of Population Aged 75 / 85+
11.0 10.0 9.0 9.9 8.0 9.4 7.0 7.7 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.8 2.5 1.0 2.0 0.0 North Somerset South West England & Wales
Aged 75+ Aged 85+
Source ONS 2005 Mid-year-Estimates Population Growth The Office for National Statistics 2004 sub-national population projections predict that the population of North Somerset will increase from around 196,600 at present (2006) to around 229,200 by 2026. This is an increase of almost 17%, about 0.8% per year. In addition the amount of new housing development the district is required to build is likely to impact on this growth in population and the figure may be higher than the ONS projection.
Population Growth
240,000 230,000 220,000 210,000 200,000 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Population
Source: ONS 2004 Sub-national Population Projections New Development In order to meet the Structure Plan target of 14,900 dwelling completions between 1996 and 2011, around 1,000 dwellings per year need to be built in North Somerset over the next five years. Most of these dwellings, over 80%, will be built in the primary urban area / strategically significant town of Weston-super-Mare and in the lower tier settlement of Portishead. The majority are already allocated in the Local Plan and/or have an existing planning permission.
In the longer term the draft Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) for the South West identifies a need to build 26,000 dwellings in North Somerset over the period from 2006 to 2026. Annually this will equate to 1,300 dwellings per annum. This will require 1,300 dwellings per year to be built. This is a 30% increase over the current annual dwelling completions required that will need to be sustained over the next 20 years.
Number of Households in North Somerset
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
No. of Households
At present the draft RSS allocates the location of the 26,000 dwellings as follow:
9,000 at an urban extension to the south of Weston-super-Mare 9,000 at an urban extension south west of Bristol 3,000 within the existing settlement of Weston-super-Mare 5,000 elsewhere in North Somerset
Households and Dwellings At the time of the 2001 Census there were 82,802 household spaces in North Somerset, of these 79,985 were occupied. The average number of people per household was 2.31 slightly below the national average of 2.36 per household.
Owner occupation is high in North Somerset. 78.6% of households own their own home and 35.4% of these own their home outright. The figure varies significantly within the district. The highest level of owner occupation is within Clevedon Walton ward where the figure is 92.5% and the lowest is 43.1% in Weston-super-Mare South ward.
In North Somerset 82% of the existing dwellings are houses and 18% are flats, this is very similar to the national situation where the split is 81% houses and 19% flats. As with owner occupation there is wide variation within the district. Clevedon Yeo has 98% houses and only 2% flats whereas in Weston-super-Mare Central, houses only make up 30% of the dwelling stock compared to 70% flats.
During 2005/06 there were 1,281 new dwellings completed in North Somerset. Of these 65% were houses and 35% were flats. This highlights a trend in recent years towards the construction of smaller house units and one and two bedroom flats rather than larger four and five bedroom detached properties.
Housing Completions 2005/06
4% 9%
21% 1 bed flat 2 bed flat 3 bed flat 25% 1 bed house 2 bed house 3 bed house 4 bed house 1% 5+ bed house
28% 1% 11%
Source: North Somerset Residential Land Survey 2006
Affordable Housing In recent years affordable housing completions in North Somerset have fallen well below the affordable housing need in the area. On site affordable housing completions secured through the planning system in 2005/06 formed only 8% of the total dwellings on sites of 15 dwellings or more, those subject to on site provision. This is well below the 30% target. The need for affordable dwellings is estimated at 965 dwellings per year.
This issue is covered in more detail in the Housing Topic Paper. Deprivation Although North Somerset is a generally prosperous area around 17,500 people in the district or almost 1 in 10 of the population live in areas categorised as amongst the most deprived 20% of the country. All of these people live in Weston-super-Mare. Of the 353 local authorities in England, North Somerset has the 11th largest range of inequality, meaning that there are areas of extreme deprivation and very prosperous areas in close proximity.
Details of the most and least deprived areas within North Somerset for each theme covered in the Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2004 are shown below. The most deprived areas of North Somerset fall within the most deprived 2% of areas nationally and the least deprived within the most prosperous 1% in the country. It should be noted that the illustrations shown do not represent the whole ward but an area of that ward that is the most or least deprived
Most Deprived Average Least Deprived
Multiple Deprivation WsM South Backwell
Income Deprivation WsM South Nailsea East
Employment Deprivation WsM South Portishead East
Education Deprivation WsM South Backwell
Health Deprivation WsM Central Wrington
Crime Deprivation WsM Central Portishead Redcliffe Bay
Living Environment Deprivation WsM South WsM North Worle
Barriers to Services Deprivation Easton-in-Gordano WsM Milton & Old Worle
Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2004
Health Life expectancy at birth in North Somerset is 80.0 years, slightly higher than the South West figure of 79.4 years and the national figure of 79.0* years (* male average of 76.9 and female average of 81.2 years at November 2006). However, depending on where you live there are marked differences on how long you can expect to live. A person living in Clevedon Yeo ward (85.3 years) can expect to live almost 14 years longer than someone living in Weston-super-Mare Central ward (71.7 years).
Life Expectancy at Birth
90.0 85.3
85.0 79.0 79.4 80.0
80.0 71.7 75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0 England South West North Clevedon WsM Somerset Yeo Central
Age in Years
Source: North Somerset Primary Care Trust
Although life expectancy is increasing and people are living longer, the Primary Care Trust (PCT) also report that the period towards the end of life when people have a reduced quality of life through ill health is also increasing. Male life expectancy is currently around 77 years compared to healthy life expectancy for men, which is around 67 years. For women the gap is even greater with life expectancy at around 81 years and healthy life expectancy at 69 years.
Limiting Long Term Illness
31.0 35.0 30.0 18.2 18.5 25.0 20.0 11.6 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 England & North Somerset Clevedon Yeo WsM Central Wales
Percentage of Population with Limiting Long Term Illness
Source: 2001 Census
18.5% of North Somerset’s population reported a limiting long term illness at the 2001 Census, slightly higher than the figure for England and Wales which was 18.2%. The incidence of limiting long term illness as reported in the 2001 Census also illustrates large differences between wards in North Somerset. In Clevedon Yeo only 11.6% of the population stated that they had a limiting long term illness compared to almost a third of the population (31.0%) in Weston-super-Mare Central ward.
Other health issues identified by the PCT include obesity, mental health issues and the possible effects of future climate change.
Car Ownership Car Ownership in North Somerset is high. 38% of households own two or more cars compared to 29% in England and Wales. 18% of households in the district do not have access to a car, this compares to 27% nationally. The number of households with a single car is the same as the national average. In some areas of the district the amount of households with two or more cars is double the national average, for example in Winford and in Blagdon & Churchill. In Winford 5% of households have four or more cars and only 6% of households have no car at all, perhaps a reflection of the rural nature of these areas. In WsM Central ward the situation is reversed, here 45% of households have no car and only 13% of households have two or more cars.
Car Ownership
100% 13 90% 29 80% 38 70% 56 60 42 60%
50% 44 40% 44 30% 38 32 20% 45 Percentage of Households of Percentage 27 10% 18 6 8 0% England & North WsM Central Winford Blagdon & Wales Somerset Churchill
No Cars One Car Two+ Cars
Car Ownership in Towns
100% 90% 28 80% 37 45 46 70% 60%
50% 47 40% 47 42 42 30% 20% Percentage of Households Percentage 26 10% 13 17 12 0% Weston-super- Portishead Clevedon Nailsea Mare
No Cars One Car Two+ Cars
Source: 2001 Census Travel to Work The amount of people travelling to work by public transport in North Somerset is half the national average at only 7%. In some areas of the district, for example Portishead, the figure is only a quarter of the national figure. For those people cycling and walking to work the figures are similar to the national picture, and the amount of people working from home at 11% is 2% higher than in England and Wales. The number of people who use a car to travel to work is higher than average. In England and Wales the figure is 61%, in North Somerset it is 68% and in Portishead the figure is 15% higher than the national average at 76%.
England & Wales Weston-super-Mare
2% 3% 9% 15% 9% 9% 3% 3% Public Transport Public Transport 10% Car 11% Car Walk Walk Cycle Cycle Work at home Work at home Other Other
65% 61%
North Somerset Portishead
2% 7% 2% 4% 11% 9% 1% 3% Public Transport Public Transport 8% 9% Car Car Walk Walk Cycle Cycle Work at home Work at home Other Other
68% 76%
Source: 2001 Census Travel to Work Statistics
Self-containment Weston-super-Mare Self-containment 0.8% 7.8% 5.5% 1.0% 3.8% BANES 3.5% 1.6% 2.3% Bristol City Centre 4.5% 1.3% Bristol Other 0.3% 2.2% Bristol Avonmouth 1.1% Clevedon Nailsea and Backwell Portishead and Royal Portbury Weston-super-Mare Bristol Airport (Wrington) North Somerset (Rural North) North Somerset (Rural South) North Fringe South Glos Other
64.5%
Source: 2001 Census Travel to Work Statistics
Self-containment is expressed as a percentage of the working age population in employment who live and work in the same area. Self-containment in North Somerset’s towns is low, especially as Weston-super-Mare is considered to be a strategically significant town. Many of the town’s residents commute to Bristol, the north fringe and other towns in the district. Below are some examples of self-containment levels in North Somerset and elsewhere.
Weston-super-Mare 64% Bristol 85% Portishead 35% Exeter 80% Clevedon 45% Barnstaple 77% Nailsea 40% Salisbury 63%
When self-containment is considered alongside the travel to work statistics presented above, the car borne out commuting that exists in North Somerset is highlighted. This issue is dealt with in more detail in the Transport and Economy topic papers.
Income In 2006 average gross annual pay for full time employees working in North Somerset was £23,170. This is a decrease of £99 since 2005, although there has been a net increase in pay of £5,478 since 1999. The figure of £23,170 is higher than the South West average of £22,042 but around £600 lower than the national figure.
In comparison the average gross annual pay for full time employees resident in North Somerset during 2006 was £26,179. This is £3,000 higher than for those people who work in North Somerset and is one of the highest figures of all South West authorities. The figure has increased by £895 (3.5%) since 2005.
Gross Annual Pay for Full Time Workers in North Somerset
27,000
25,000
23,000
21,000
Pay in £'s 19,000
17,000
15,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Workplace Residents
Comparable figures for resident based pay before 2002 are not available.
House Prices In 2006 the average house price in North Somerset was £201,983. This is £2,799 (1.4%) above the national average house price of £199,184 for the same period. Although income in the South West is lower than in North Somerset, the average house price in the South West is £205,768, almost £4,000 higher than in North Somerset.
Since 1998 average house prices in North Somerset have risen from £79,330 to £201,983 in 2006, an increase of 154%. The increase over the past year was 7%, compared to 8% nationally.
House Price Change
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000 Price in £'s in Price
50,000
0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Average House Price
Plotting the percentage change in house price against the percentage change in income quite clearly shows that house prices are rising at a much higher rate than incomes. In 2001/02 house prices rose by over 38% compared to incomes which rose by only 5%. This difference has inevitably contributed to affordability issues in North Somerset, which are covered in more detail in the Housing topic paper.
Percentage Change: House Prices v Incomes
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 % Change 10 5 0 -5 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Year
England & Wales House Price North Somerset House Price North Somerset Workplace Income North Somerset Resident Income
Comparable figures for resident based pay before 2002 are not available.
Education
Qualifications
North Somerset
England & Wales Degree Level No Qualifications WsM South
Easton-in- Gordano
0 1020304050 Percentage of 16-74 year olds
Source: 2001 Census
The population of North Somerset qualified to degree level (19.2%) is slightly lower but similar to the national figure (19.8%). However the percentage of people with no qualifications is much higher nationally, 29.1% compared to only 23.5% in North Somerset. As with other indicators there are huge variations within the district, most notably 43.1% of the population in Weston-super-Mare South ward do not have any qualifications.
GCSE Results
70
60
50
40
30 Percentage 20
10
0 Priory Worle Nailsea Wyvern England Gordano Churchill Backwell Clevedon Broadoak South West St Katherine's North Somerset North
5+ A*-C inc Maths and English
Source: Department for Education and Skills Performance Tables
The number of pupils achieving five GCSE passes at grades A* to C including English and Maths in North Somerset is 2% higher than in England as a whole. The figure for pupils studying at Churchill School is 62%, 16% above the national figure and 29% higher than the figure for Priory School in Weston, North Somerset’s lowest performing school.
A’ level results mirror the GCSE results. North Somerset’s average point score per exam entry is just above the national average. Churchill School is the district’s highest performing school, with on average 11 points per exam entry more than the national figure. Clevedon School is 23 points per exam entry below the national figure.
A' level Average Point Score per Exam Entry
220
210
200
190
180
Average Points Points Score Average 170
160 St Nailsea North College Weston England Gordano Churchill Backwell Clevedon Somerset Katherine's South West
A' level Average Point Score Per Exam Entry
Source: Department for Education and Skills Performance Tables
Ethnicity Ethnic Group North Somerset England White British 96.7 87.0 White Irish 0.6 1.3 White Other 1.3 2.7 Mixed 0.6 1.3 Asian or Asian British 0.3 4.6 Black or Black British 0.1 2.3 Chinese/other 0.4 0.9
Source: 2001 Census
At the time of the 2001 Census the black and minority ethnic population of England was 9.1%. In North Somerset the figure was much lower at only 1.4% of the total population. Until the next Census in 2011 this figure cannot be accurately updated. There is much anecdotal evidence to suggest that since the 2001 Census the black and minority ethnic population has increased in North Somerset. In particular the eastern European population from the accession countries that joined the EU in 2004 is thought to have increased, but as yet this increase cannot be quantified. It is hoped that the 2011 Census will provide greater detail on the ‘white other’ category to allow greater analysis of North Somerset’s migrant population.
Unemployment There are various ways to measure unemployment. The Annual Population Survey reports the percentage of working age people who are unemployed. In this sense unemployed means not working but having looked for work in the previous four weeks. The rate is calculated as a percentage of the economically active population. North Somerset’s unemployment rate is less than half that reported in Great Britain.
Unemployment (Aged 16+ as Percentage of Economically Active)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0 5.0
Percentage 2.0 3.4 1.0 1.9
0.0 North Somerset South West Great Britain
Unemployment
Source: NOMIS: Annual Population Survey, April 2005 - March 2006
To look at unemployment below district level the percentage of the working age population claiming Job Seekers Allowance can be used. In Clevedon Walton ward only 0.3% of the working age population was claiming Job Seekers Allowance at December 2006, compared to 4.4% in Weston-super-Mare Central. At December 2006 in Great Britain the figure was 2.5% and in North Somerset the number of claimants was half this at 1.2%.
Job Seekers Allowance Claimants as % of Working Age Population
5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 4.4 2
Percentage 1.5 2.5 1 0.3 0.5 1.2 0 Great Britain North Somerset WsM Central Clevedon Walton
Job Seekers Allowance Claimants
Source: NOMIS: Claimant Counts with rates and proportions – December 2006
Crime Of the crimes reported to the police in North Somerset during 2005/06, 24% were violence against a person, 23% were criminal damage and 19% were general theft.
Crimes Reported in North Somerset 7%
24% Other Criminal Damage Drug Crime 23% Dwelling Burglaries General Theft Other Burglaries 2% Robbery 1% Sexual Offences 8% 2% Theft from Motor Vehicle Theft of Motor Vehicle 1% 5% Theft of Pedal Cycle 1% 7% Violence Against Person 19%
In total the crime rate in North Somerset during 2005/06 was 84.3 crimes per 1,000 population. This is below the regional figure of 103.9 crimes per 1,000 population for the Avon and Somerset Constabulary area and the England and Wales figure of 105.2 crimes per 1,000 population.
Despite only having 3% of North Somerset’s population, Weston-super-Mare Central ward experiences 21% of the district’s crime. Weston-super-Mare South ward sees 11% of reported crime. All other wards have 6% or less of the district’s crime, most seeing only 1%, 2% or 3%.
Conclusions for North Somerset
Pressures… Older / ageing population Population growth of around 17% by 2026 High levels of development concentrated in specific areas High levels of localised deprivation Huge range of inequality within the district (health, access to car and housing…)
Opportunities… Generally prosperous area High life expectancy High resident incomes Population growth of around 17% by 2026 High levels of development concentrated in specific areas
Gaps in Knowledge Up to date dwelling led, ward level population projections. Also it is difficult to identify the location of RSS dwelling figures as it is early in the RSS preparation process Up to date Housing Land Availability Assessment Up to date travel to work and self containment statistics that take account of new dwellings built since the 2001 Census Local level (ward and below) house price and income data Up to date local (ward level) analysis of immigrant / eastern European population
Evidence Base – list of references and further reading Annual Monitoring Report (2005, 2006) Residential Land Survey (2006) Employment Land Survey (2006) Glen Bramley West of England Housing Needs Assessment (May 2005) Research and Monitoring North Somerset Ward Profiles GOSW North Somerset district profile 2001 Census data (ward/parish/town) Key Statistics profiles and travel to work data Indices of Deprivation 2004 results and reports ONS 2004 Population projections ONS 2005 mid-year estimates for North Somerset Draft Regional Spatial Strategy for the South West (June 2006) Health in North Somerset – The Annual Report of the Director of Public Health, 2005-2006 ONS Sub-national Population Projections (2003, 2004) Annual Population Survey 2004 WAAP Socio-economic Review (Ove Arup and Partners 2006) Primary Care Trust Health Profiles by ward State of North Somerset (Local Futures) A Geographical Analysis of the South West (Local Futures)