THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL

April 18, 2016

GUINTA FACES UPHILL STRUGGLE IN FIRST DISTRICT

By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. UNH Survey Center 603/862-2226 www.unh.edu/survey-center

DURHAM, NH –First District congressman Frank Guinta remains very unpopular in his district and faces a tough battle for re- election as nearly half of First District likely voters say they would definitely vote for another candidate. Second District congresswoman Ann Kuster remains somewhat popular in her district. However, potential challengers to both Guinta and Kuster are largely unknown.

These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Six hundred and twenty-one (621) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between April 7 and April 17, 2016. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.9 percent. Included were five hundred and fifty-three (553) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE = +/- 4.2%). Three hundred and ten (310) residents were from the First Congressional District (MSE = +/- 5.6%) and three hundred and eleven (311) were from the Second District (MSE = +/- 5.6%).

Favorability Ratings – Frank Guinta In New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, incumbent Frank Guinta remains unpopular largely due to fallout from a settlement with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) over campaign finance violations from his 2010 run for Congress. Currently, only 25% of 1st District adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 8% are neutral and 19% don’t know enough about him to say. His net favorability rating is -22%, up slightly from -27% in February. Guinta is somewhat popular among Republicans (net +9%), unpopular among Independents (-20%) and very unpopular among Democrats (-48%). Favorability Ratings - Frank Guinta NH 1st District 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 49% 50% 50% 46%47% 39% 37% 40% 40% 33% 33% 36%34% 36% 30% 28% 30%31%30%30% 31% 33%33%32%29% 28% 38% 30% 23%22% 30% 30% 28%28%27% 27% 26%27%27%27% 20% 22%26%24% 24% 23% 25%21% 25% 20% 19% 10% 18%17% 11%14% 0% 8% Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. May Apr. '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Favorable Unfavorable

 We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Knowledge of Frank Guinta FEC Story

Residents of the First District are fairly well informed about the campaign finance controversy. Almost half of first district residents have heard a great deal (22%) or a fair amount (27%) about the Guinta story, 32% have heard only a little and 18% have heard nothing at all. This measure is unchanged since July.

How Much Have You Heard About Guinta FEC Story? - 1st District Adults 50% 45% 40% 32% 32% 32% 35% 30% 30% 27% 27% 25% 22% 22% 20% 18% 17% 18% 18% 15% 10% 5% 2% 2% 1% 0% A Great Deal A Fair Amount Only A Little Nothing At All Don't Know/Not Sure

1st District Adults (July '15) 1st District Adults (Oct '15) 1st District Adults (Apr '16)

Guinta 2016 Re-Election Bid

The scandal is hurting Guinta’s chances for re-election in 2016 as nearly half of 1st District likely voters said they would definitely vote for someone else if Guinta were on the ballot – 46% say they would definitely vote for another candidate, 4% would definitely vote for Guinta, 22% would consider voting for him and 28% are unsure. A majority of Democrats (63%), 46% of Independents and 23% of Republicans say they would definitely vote for another candidate. However, the percentage who say they will definitely vote for another candidate has decreased ten points since October.

If Guinta Ran for Re-Election in 2016, Would You... 100% 90% 80% 70% 63% 60% 55%56% 50% 46% 46% 37% 40% 34% 28% 27% 30% 22% 23% 21%24% 24% 18%16% 19% 20% 11% 7% 6% 10% 5% 4% 4% 2% 0% Definitely Vote For Guinta Consider Voting For Definitely Vote For Other Don't Know Guinta Candidate 1st District Likely Voters (July '15) 1st District Likely Voters (Oct '15) 1st District Likely Voters (Apr '16) Democrat Independent Republican

Potential Republican Challengers – 1st District Guinta faces two major challengers for the Republican nomination -- state representative Pam Tucker (Greenland) and businessman Rich Ashooh (Bedford) have both gotten into the race. Ashooh challenged Guinta for the nomination in 2010 while Tucker is making her first run for higher office. Both are largely unknown in the 1st District.

Currently only 9% of residents of New Hampshire’s 1st District have a favorable opinion of Ashooh, 5% have an unfavorable opinion, 7% are neutral and 80% don’t know enough about him to say. Ashooh’s net favorability is +4% . Favorability Ratings - Rich Ashooh NH 1st District 50%

40%

30%

20% 11% 11% 9% 10% 4% 4% 5% 0% 5% 0% 2% 3% 4% 3% Feb. '10 Apr. '10 July '10 July '13 Feb '16 Apr. '16

Favorable Unfavorable

Tucker is even less known, only 3% of 1st District residents have a favorable opinion of Tucker, 4% have an unfavorable opinion, 8% are neutral and 84% don’t know enough about her to say. Tucker’s net favorability is -1%.

Favorability Ratings - Pam Tucker NH 1st District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10% 6% 4%

0% 4% 3% Feb '16 Apr. '16

Favorable Unfavorable

Democratic Challengers – 1st District

Former congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, who held the first district seat from 2007-2011 and 2013-2015, is running again in 2016. If Shea-Porter gets the Democratic nomination and Guinta the Republican nomination, it would mark the fourth consecutive election they would face off for the seat. Currently 34% of 1st District residents have a favorable opinion of Shea- Porter, 38% have an unfavorable opinion, 9% are neutral and 19% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability is - 4%, which is down from +4% in February. Shea Porter is very popular among Democrats (+45%), unpopular among Independents (-27%) and very unpopular among Republicans (-55%).

Favorability Ratings – Carol Shea-Porter – 1st District

49%48% 50% 44% 44% 45% 42% 43% 42% 43% 42% 43%42% 40% 41% 40% 41%40% 41% 39% 39% 38% 39% 40% 38%38% 37% 37% 38%38% 35% 33% 39% 37% 37% 31% 34% 30% 35% 35% 35% 34% 34% 32%32% 32% 32% 30%31% 30% 30%31%30% 30% 28% 28% 28%28% 29% 26% 20% 16% 20% 21% 18% 17% 10% 7% 15% 5% 0% 0%

Favorable Unfavorable

Businessman Shawn O’Connor of Bedford is also seeking the Democratic nomination for the 1st District seat, but remains largely unknown among district residents. Currently 6% have a favorable opinion of O’Connor, 2% have an unfavorable opinion, 6% are neutral and 86% don’t know enough about him to say. O’Connor’s net favorability is +4%.

Favorability Ratings - Shawn O'Connor NH 1st District 50%

40%

30%

20%

10% 10% 6% 4% 1% 2% 0% Oct '15 Feb '16 Apr. '16

Favorable Unfavorable

Favorability Ratings – Ann Kuster

Second District congresswoman Ann Kuster is somewhat popular in her district -- currently, 36% of 2nd District adults have a favorable opinion of Kuster, 28% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 9% are neutral, and 27% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability rating is +8%, which is up from +4% in February. She is very popular among Democrats (net +40%), popular among Independents (+16%), and very unpopular among Republicans (-39%). Kuster faces no major challenger for the Democratic nomination. Favorability Ratings – Ann Kuster -- 2nd District

50%

38% 39% 38% 40% 37% 37% 36% 35% 34% 34% 32% 32% 33% 33% 29% 28% 30% 26% 27% 33% 24% 30% 30% 23% 29% 30% 21% 27% 28% 28% 28% 25% 25% 20% 23% 23%

10% 8% 8% 16% 10% 6% 14% 13%

0% Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. May Apr '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Favorable Unfavorable

Republican Challenger – 2nd District

State representative Jack Flanagan (R-Brookline) has announced a run to challenge Kuster. Currently, only 6% of 2nd District residents have a favorable opinion of Flanagan, 3% have an unfavorable opinion, 9% are neutral and 82% don’t know enough about him to say. Flanagan’s net favorability is +3%. Favorability Ratings - Jack Flanagan NH 2nd District 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 6% 6% 10%

0% 3% 3% Feb '16 Apr. '16

Favorable Unfavorable

Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and funded by WMUR-TV, Manchester, NH. Six hundred and twenty-one (621) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between April 7 and April 17, 2016. If a household included more than one adult, the adult who had the most recent birthday was selected to be interviewed.

The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.9 percent for the entire sample. Included were five hundred fifty-three (553) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE +/- 4.2%). Three hundred and ten (310) residents were from the First Congressional District (MSE = +/- 5.6%) and three hundred and eleven (311) were from the Second District (MSE = +/- 5.6%). These MSE’s have not been adjusted for design effect. The design effect for the survey is 1.1%.

The random sample used in the WMUR Granite State Poll was purchased from Marketing Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non-working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of time interviewers spend calling non-usable numbers.

The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. Additionally, data were weighted by respondent sex, age, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non- sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross- tabulation tables as some respondents choose not to answer some questions.

For more information about the methodology used in the WMUR Granite State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862- 2226 or by email at [email protected].

Granite State Poll, April 2016 Demographics

Sex N % Region N % Male 304 49% North Country 56 9% Female 317 51% Central/Lakes 112 18% Connecticut Valley 91 15% Age N % Mass Border 163 26% 18 to 34 158 27% Seacoast 107 17% 35 to 49 146 24% Manchester Area 92 15% 50 to 64 186 31% 65 and Over 107 18% Party Registration N % Democrat 173 28% Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg. 301 48% High School or Less 120 19% Republican 143 23% Some College 145 24% College Graduate 210 34% Party Identification N % Post-Graduate 141 23% Democrat 284 47% Independent 106 18% Republican 217 36%

Granite State Poll, April 2016 - Likely Presidential Election Voter Demographics

Sex N % Region N % Male 265 48% North Country 53 10% Female 288 52% Central/Lakes 97 18% Connecticut Valley 86 16% Age N % Mass Border 142 26% 18 to 34 128 24% Seacoast 91 17% 35 to 49 137 26% Manchester Area 84 15% 50 to 64 172 32% 65 and Over 96 18% Party Registration N % Democrat 167 30% Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg. 249 45% High School or Less 86 16% Republican 132 24% Some College 129 24% College Graduate 200 36% Party Identification N % Post-Graduate 134 25% Democrat 267 49% Independent 80 15% Republican 196 36%

Granite State Poll, April 2016 – First Congressional District Demographics

Sex N % Region N % Male 151 49% North Country 29 9% Female 159 51% Central/Lakes 42 14% Connecticut Valley 0 0% Age N % Mass Border 59 19% 18 to 34 74 25% Seacoast 107 35% 35 to 49 80 27% Manchester Area 73 24% 50 to 64 88 30% 65 and Over 56 19% Party Registration N % Democrat 85 27% Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg. 142 46% High School or Less 62 20% Republican 81 26% Some College 74 24% College Graduate 99 32% Party Identification N % Post-Graduate 72 24% Democrat 145 47% Independent 48 16% Republican 113 37%

Granite State Poll, April 2016 – Second Congressional District Demographics

Sex N % Region N % Male 153 49% North Country 27 9% Female 158 51% Central/Lakes 70 23% Connecticut Valley 91 29% Age N % Mass Border 104 33% 18 to 34 84 28% Seacoast 0 0% 35 to 49 66 22% Manchester Area 19 6% 50 to 64 98 33% 65 and Over 51 17% Party Registration N % Democrat 87 28% Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg. 159 51% High School or Less 58 19% Republican 20 20% Some College 71 23% College Graduate 111 36% Party Identification N % Post-Graduate 69 22% Democrat 139 46% Independent 58 19% Republican 104 35%

Favorability Rating – Frank Guinta - NH 1st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Congressman (Former Congressman) Frank Guinta?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) Apr ‘16 25% 8% 47% 19% -22% (310) Feb ‘16 19% 8% 46% 27% -27% (357) Oct ‘15 21% 6% 50% 23% -39% (285) July ‘15 25% 5% 49% 21% -24% (247) May ‘15 30% 6% 40% 24% -10% (289) Feb. ‘15 23% 13% 36% 28% -13% (236) Oct. ‘14 27% 9% 29% 35% -2% (339) July ‘14 32% 8% 27% 33% +5% (336) Apr. ‘14 27% 7% 33% 33% -6% (255) Jan. ‘14 33% 11% 26% 29% +7% (300) Oct. ‘13 24% 8% 34% 34% -10% (325) July ‘13 27% 6% 36% 31% -9% (274)

Oct. ’12 – LVs 38% 6% 39% 17% -1% (273) Aug. ‘12 37% 5% 27% 31% +6% (270) Apr. ‘12 31% 9% 28% 33% +3% (253) Feb. ‘12 33% 8% 28% 30% +5% (256) Oct. ‘11 30% 12% 30% 28% 0% (247) July ‘11 24% 12% 30% 34% -6% (248) Apr. ‘11 31% 10% 26% 33% +5% (243) Feb. ‘11 30% 12% 22% 35% +8% (236) Sept. ‘10 33% 4% 20% 42% +13% (262) July ‘10 28% 9% 17% 46% +11% (264) Apr. ‘10 22% 7% 18% 52% +4% (257) Feb. ‘10 23% 7% 14% 55% +9% (251) Oct. ‘09 28% 9% 11% 52% +17% (251) April ‘09 30% 12% 8% 51% +22% (260)

How Much Have You Heard About Guinta FEC Story – First District Residents

“Last year, Congressman Frank Guinta was in the news as the Federal Election Commission (FEC) fined him over campaign finance violations and ordered him to repay $355,000 that was loaned to his 2010 campaign. How much have you heard you heard about this story… would you say a great deal… a fair amount… only a little… or nothing at all?”

A Great Deal A Fair Amount Only A Little Nothing At All Don’t Know (N=) Apr ‘16 22% 27% 32% 18% 1% (307) Oct ‘15 18% 30% 32% 18% 2% (281) July ‘15 22% 32% 27% 17% 2% (246)

Consider Voting For Guinta in 2016 – First District Likely Voters

“If Guinta was on the ballot in 2016, would you definitely vote for him … would you consider voting for him … would you definitely vote for another candidate, or are you unsure at this time?”

Definitely Vote Consider Voting Definitely Vote For For Guinta For Guinta Other Candidate Don’t Know (N=) Apr ‘16 4% 22% 46% 28% (271) Oct ‘15 4% 16% 56% 24% (251) July ‘15 5% 18% 55% 21% (213)

Favorability Rating – Shawn O’Connor - NH 1st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Businessman Shawn O’Connor?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) Apr ‘16 6% 6% 2% 86% +4% (305) Feb ‘16 10% 11% 1% 78% +9% (357) Oct ‘15 4% 11% 4% 81% +0% (285)

Favorability Rating – Pam Tucker - NH 1st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. State Representative Pam Tucker?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) Apr. ‘16 3% 8% 4% 84% -1% (307) Feb ‘16 6% 11% 4% 79% +2% (357)

Favorability Rating – Carol Shea-Porter - NH 1st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. (Congresswoman) Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) Apr ‘16 34% 9% 38% 19% -4% (307) Feb ‘16 38% 10% 34% 18% +4% (357) Oct ‘15 37% 8% 30% 25% +7% (284)

Oct. ‘14 41% 8% 29% 22% +12% (340) Aug. ‘14 42% 9% 30% 18% +12% (395) July ‘14 43% 5% 31% 21% +12% (341) Apr. ‘14 45% 9% 30% 16% +15% (256) Jan. ‘14 39% 8% 32% 20% +7% (300) Oct. ‘13 42% 7% 28% 22% +14% (325) July ‘13 37% 6% 28% 28% +9% (274) Apr. ‘13 31% 11% 32% 26% -1% (227) Feb. ‘13 38% 8% 39% 15% -1% (254) Oct. ’12 - LVs 48% 4% 34% 13% +14% (273) Aug. ‘12 49% 5% 28% 18% +21% (270) Apr. ‘12 43% 3% 30% 24% +13% (252)

Sept. ‘10 37% 8% 40% 14% -3% (262) July ‘10 41% 7% 35% 17% +6% (270) Apr. ‘10 37% 7% 44% 12% -7% (257) Feb. ‘10 35% 7% 40% 19% -5% (251) Oct. ‘09 42% 7% 31% 20% +11% (248) Jun. ‘09 41% 8% 30% 21% +11% (287) Apr. ‘09 38% 4% 35% 23% +3% (260) Feb. ‘09 38% 10% 26% 27% +12% (311) Sep. ‘08 44% 5% 31% 20% +13% (251) July ‘08 35% 9% 32% 24% +3% (235) Apr. ‘08 39% 12% 28% 21% +11% (251) Feb. ‘08 43% 13% 17% 26% +26% (267) Sept. ‘07 33% 17% 21% 29% +12% (228) July ‘07 39% 15% 18% 28% +21% (252) Apr. ‘07 42% 15% 20% 24% +22% (251) Feb. ‘07 40% 17% 15% 28% +25% (248) Sept. ‘06 16% 14% 5% 65% +11% (266) July ‘06 7% 7% 0% 86% +7% (256) Favorability Rating – Businessman Rich Ashooh - NH 1st District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Businessman Rich Ashooh?”

1st C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) Apr ‘16 9% 7% 5% 80% +4% (307) Feb ‘16 5% 9% 3% 82% +2% (357)

July ‘13 11% 6% 4% 79% +7% (274)

July ’10 11% 5% 3% 81% +8% (262) Apr. ’10 4% 8% 2% 86% +2% (256) Feb ’10 4% 6% 0% 90% +4% (233)

Favorability Rating – U.S. Representative Ann Kuster - NH 2nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Congresswoman (Attorney) Ann Kuster?”

2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) Apr ‘16 36% 9% 28% 27% +8% (309) Feb ‘16 34% 8% 30% 28% +4% (328) Oct ‘15 29% 8% 33% 30% -4% (299) July ‘15 33% 5% 37% 25% -4% (283) May ‘15 24% 6% 38% 32% -14% (278) Feb. ‘15 23% 16% 39% 21% -16% (273) Oct. ‘14 28% 10% 37% 24% -9% (339) July ‘14 34% 7% 28% 31% +6% (325) Apr. ‘14 27% 10% 33% 29% -6% (245) Jan. ‘14 30% 6% 32% 31% -2% (281) Oct. ‘13 23% 9% 28% 40% -5% (330) July ‘13 27% 9% 25% 38% +2% (232) Apr. ‘13 29% 8% 30% 34% -1% (276) Feb. ‘13 32% 8% 23% 36% +9% (325) Oct. ’12 – LVs 35% 7% 25% 33% +10% (325) Aug. ‘12 21% 1% 16% 61% +5% (311) Apr. ‘12 26% 3% 13% 58% +13% (270)

Sept. ‘10 38% 6% 14% 42% +24% (243) July ‘10 10% 3% 2% 85% +8% (226) Apr. ‘10 8% 7% 4% 81% +4% (250) Feb. ‘10 8% 2% 3% 87% +5% (240) Oct. ‘09 6% 5% 2% 87% +4% (252)

Favorability Rating – Jack Flanagan - NH 2nd District "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. State Representative Jack Flanagan?”

2nd C.D. Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know Net (N) Apr. ‘16 6% 9% 3% 82% +3% (305) Feb. ‘16 6% 11% 3% 80% +3% (328)

Favorability Rating – Congressman Frank Guinta

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) FIRST CONG DIST 25% 8% 47% 19% 310

Registered Democrat 14% 3% 61% 22% 85 Registered Undeclared 19% 9% 49% 22% 142 Registered Republican 46% 12% 30% 12% 81

Democrat 14% 3% 62% 21% 145 Independent 24% 11% 44% 21% 48 Republican 39% 14% 30% 17% 113

Liberal 13% 2% 62% 24% 82 Moderate 19% 9% 57% 15% 117 Conservative 44% 14% 23% 19% 90

Likely 2016 Voter 27% 8% 49% 16% 274 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 10% 11% 31% 48% 36

Union household 14% 15% 56% 15% 46 Non-union 27% 7% 46% 20% 263

Read Union Leader 21% 6% 52% 21% 67 Read Boston Globe 7% 7% 65% 21% 43 Read Local Newspapers 17% 8% 64% 11% 89 Watch WMUR 28% 8% 55% 9% 171 Listen to NHPR radio 15% 1% 72% 11% 82 Listen to Conserv. Radio 44% 9% 32% 14% 28

18 to 34 19% 8% 38% 34% 74 35 to 49 26% 3% 42% 30% 80 50 to 64 28% 12% 52% 8% 88 65 and over 24% 10% 60% 6% 56

Male 26% 9% 45% 20% 151 Female 24% 8% 49% 19% 159

High school or less 29% 3% 38% 30% 62 Some college 35% 9% 41% 15% 74 College graduate 26% 13% 45% 16% 99 Post-graduate 10% 5% 66% 19% 72

Attend services 1 or more/week 38% 16% 31% 15% 60 1-2 times a month 41% 9% 46% 4% 27 Less often 22% 6% 47% 26% 82 Never 16% 7% 56% 21% 133

North Country 19% 10% 54% 17% 29 Central / Lakes 18% 9% 55% 17% 42 Mass Border 27% 14% 44% 15% 59 Seacoast 25% 8% 39% 29% 107 Manchester Area 30% 3% 55% 12% 73

Favorability Rating – Congresswoman Ann Kuster

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) SECOND CONG DIST 36% 9% 28% 27% 309

Registered Democrat 50% 7% 14% 30% 86 Registered Undeclared 39% 13% 22% 27% 159 Registered Republican 10% 3% 67% 20% 61

Democrat 51% 9% 11% 28% 139 Independent 36% 17% 20% 26% 56 Republican 18% 4% 57% 21% 104

Liberal 47% 12% 10% 30% 81 Moderate 44% 7% 27% 22% 127 Conservative 22% 5% 52% 21% 78

Likely 2016 Voter 38% 8% 29% 25% 279 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 20% 19% 18% 43% 31

Union household 40% 15% 37% 8% 35 Non-union 36% 9% 27% 28% 271

Read Union Leader 53% 8% 27% 12% 49 Read Boston Globe 64% 4% 13% 18% 24 Read Local Newspapers 49% 5% 30% 16% 106 Watch WMUR 39% 6% 33% 22% 158 Listen to NHPR radio 48% 6% 19% 27% 110 Listen to Conserv. Radio 16% 2% 48% 34% 32

18 to 34 27% 11% 23% 39% 84 35 to 49 42% 9% 27% 22% 66 50 to 64 43% 5% 31% 21% 96 65 and over 30% 12% 37% 22% 51

Male 38% 7% 32% 22% 151 Female 34% 11% 24% 31% 158

High school or less 24% 17% 27% 32% 58 Some college 36% 8% 27% 30% 71 College graduate 37% 10% 35% 18% 111 Post-graduate 47% 2% 21% 31% 67

Attend services 1 or more/week 25% 8% 50% 17% 58 1-2 times a month 37% 1% 33% 29% 32 Less often 45% 6% 26% 23% 81 Never 36% 12% 20% 32% 132

North Country 48% 0% 14% 38% 27 Central / Lakes 42% 9% 25% 23% 70 Connecticut Valley 33% 10% 30% 27% 91 Mass Border 33% 12% 31% 25% 102 Manchester Area 29% 4% 38% 29% 19 Favorability Rating – Carol Shea-Porter

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) FIRST CONG DIST 34% 9% 38% 19% 307

Registered Democrat 58% 13% 6% 24% 85 Registered Undeclared 36% 9% 34% 21% 140 Registered Republican 7% 7% 78% 9% 80

Democrat 57% 11% 12% 20% 143 Independent 20% 14% 47% 19% 48 Republican 12% 6% 67% 16% 111

Liberal 59% 11% 8% 22% 82 Moderate 32% 13% 38% 17% 116 Conservative 13% 5% 68% 14% 89

Likely 2016 Voter 36% 8% 38% 18% 271 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 18% 20% 35% 27% 36

Union household 35% 2% 49% 14% 44 Non-union 34% 11% 36% 19% 261

Read Union Leader 30% 7% 50% 13% 67 Read Boston Globe 44% 14% 31% 12% 43 Read Local Newspapers 45% 9% 37% 8% 89 Watch WMUR 35% 8% 47% 10% 170 Listen to NHPR radio 55% 8% 26% 12% 82 Listen to Conserv. Radio 8% 3% 74% 15% 28

18 to 34 37% 12% 23% 28% 71 35 to 49 32% 9% 30% 29% 80 50 to 64 27% 10% 54% 10% 88 65 and over 43% 8% 42% 7% 56

Male 26% 10% 42% 21% 148 Female 42% 9% 33% 16% 159

High school or less 26% 11% 40% 23% 59 Some college 32% 10% 40% 18% 73 College graduate 34% 9% 40% 17% 99 Post-graduate 44% 9% 30% 17% 72

Attend services 1 or more/week 25% 9% 49% 17% 60 1-2 times a month 16% 0% 80% 4% 27 Less often 33% 10% 36% 20% 82 Never 43% 11% 26% 20% 130

North Country 30% 31% 24% 15% 29 Central / Lakes 29% 7% 46% 18% 40 Mass Border 30% 13% 42% 15% 58 Seacoast 39% 9% 29% 24% 107 Manchester Area 35% 1% 48% 16% 73

Favorability Rating – Shawn O’Connor

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) FIRST CONG DIST 6% 6% 2% 86% 305

Registered Democrat 7% 7% 2% 84% 84 Registered Undeclared 5% 7% 3% 85% 140 Registered Republican 6% 5% 1% 88% 79

Democrat 5% 6% 3% 86% 142 Independent 4% 4% 2% 90% 48 Republican 6% 8% 2% 84% 110

Liberal 5% 5% 2% 88% 82 Moderate 4% 8% 3% 85% 115 Conservative 7% 5% 2% 86% 89

Likely 2016 Voter 6% 6% 2% 85% 270 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 5% 7% 0% 88% 34

Union household 8% 6% 5% 82% 43 Non-union 5% 7% 2% 86% 260

Read Union Leader 11% 2% 6% 82% 67 Read Boston Globe 14% 2% 5% 79% 43 Read Local Newspapers 7% 5% 5% 82% 87 Watch WMUR 5% 6% 3% 86% 170 Listen to NHPR radio 6% 4% 4% 87% 82 Listen to Conserv. Radio 2% 11% 2% 85% 28

18 to 34 2% 9% 0% 89% 71 35 to 49 6% 10% 3% 81% 80 50 to 64 3% 5% 5% 88% 88 65 and over 13% 3% 0% 84% 55

Male 7% 6% 2% 85% 148 Female 5% 7% 3% 86% 157

High school or less 5% 6% 2% 86% 58 Some college 6% 5% 0% 89% 73 College graduate 2% 10% 1% 86% 99 Post-graduate 10% 3% 5% 81% 72

Attend services 1 or more/week 11% 3% 4% 82% 57 1-2 times a month 5% 13% 0% 82% 27 Less often 6% 6% 1% 87% 82 Never 4% 7% 3% 86% 130

North Country 1% 10% 8% 81% 29 Central / Lakes 8% 6% 1% 85% 39 Mass Border 8% 10% 3% 80% 58 Seacoast 4% 4% 1% 90% 106 Manchester Area 7% 6% 1% 85% 73

Favorability Rating – Rich Ashooh

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) FIRST CONG DIST 9% 7% 5% 80% 307

Registered Democrat 4% 8% 6% 82% 85 Registered Undeclared 8% 7% 1% 84% 140 Registered Republican 13% 5% 9% 72% 80

Democrat 6% 6% 3% 85% 143 Independent 11% 9% 6% 75% 48 Republican 11% 7% 5% 77% 111

Liberal 2% 4% 5% 90% 82 Moderate 11% 11% 3% 75% 116 Conservative 14% 2% 7% 78% 89

Likely 2016 Voter 8% 7% 4% 81% 271 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 11% 4% 8% 77% 36

Union household 5% 3% 11% 82% 44 Non-union 9% 7% 4% 80% 261

Read Union Leader 20% 3% 12% 65% 67 Read Boston Globe 7% 1% 10% 82% 43 Read Local Newspapers 8% 5% 7% 80% 89 Watch WMUR 12% 7% 4% 77% 170 Listen to NHPR radio 11% 4% 3% 83% 82 Listen to Conserv. Radio 19% 8% 12% 62% 28

18 to 34 2% 9% 4% 85% 71 35 to 49 4% 10% 3% 83% 80 50 to 64 16% 3% 4% 78% 88 65 and over 9% 6% 8% 77% 56

Male 8% 6% 5% 81% 148 Female 9% 7% 4% 79% 159

High school or less 12% 3% 4% 82% 59 Some college 8% 7% 2% 82% 73 College graduate 6% 13% 5% 76% 99 Post-graduate 10% 0% 7% 83% 72

Attend services 1 or more/week 15% 5% 6% 75% 60 1-2 times a month 12% 8% 0% 79% 27 Less often 14% 5% 6% 76% 82 Never 2% 9% 5% 85% 130

North Country 2% 13% 5% 80% 29 Central / Lakes 1% 7% 8% 84% 40 Mass Border 17% 7% 1% 75% 58 Seacoast 3% 2% 3% 92% 107 Manchester Area 16% 10% 7% 66% 73 Favorability Rating – Pam Tucker

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) FIRST CONG DIST 3% 8% 4% 84% 307

Registered Democrat 5% 7% 6% 82% 85 Registered Undeclared 2% 8% 3% 87% 140 Registered Republican 5% 8% 5% 82% 80

Democrat 4% 5% 3% 88% 143 Independent 1% 12% 10% 77% 48 Republican 4% 10% 3% 83% 111

Liberal 1% 5% 6% 89% 82 Moderate 5% 10% 4% 81% 116 Conservative 5% 6% 5% 85% 89

Likely 2016 Voter 2% 7% 4% 87% 271 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 12% 15% 5% 68% 36

Union household 0% 9% 7% 84% 44 Non-union 4% 8% 4% 84% 261

Read Union Leader 6% 0% 8% 85% 67 Read Boston Globe 7% 2% 15% 76% 43 Read Local Newspapers 2% 9% 6% 83% 89 Watch WMUR 3% 8% 5% 83% 170 Listen to NHPR radio 2% 5% 4% 89% 82 Listen to Conserv. Radio 0% 16% 7% 77% 28

18 to 34 3% 5% 2% 90% 71 35 to 49 2% 11% 3% 84% 80 50 to 64 4% 7% 8% 80% 88 65 and over 3% 6% 5% 86% 56

Male 3% 6% 4% 87% 148 Female 4% 9% 5% 83% 159

High school or less 6% 8% 4% 82% 59 Some college 2% 7% 2% 89% 73 College graduate 2% 13% 5% 80% 99 Post-graduate 4% 2% 7% 87% 72

Attend services 1 or more/week 8% 11% 2% 78% 60 1-2 times a month 0% 13% 0% 87% 27 Less often 3% 5% 6% 86% 82 Never 2% 7% 6% 85% 130

North Country 4% 10% 1% 85% 29 Central / Lakes 2% 7% 3% 88% 40 Mass Border 4% 10% 6% 80% 58 Seacoast 3% 5% 5% 87% 107 Manchester Area 4% 10% 5% 81% 73 How Much Heard About Guinta FEC Situation?

A Great Deal A Fair Amount Only A Little Nothing At All Don’t Know (N) FIRST CONG DIST 22% 27% 32% 18% 1% 307

Registered Democrat 25% 32% 24% 18% 1% 85 Registered Undeclared 21% 23% 36% 20% 0% 140 Registered Republican 21% 31% 31% 15% 1% 80

Democrat 29% 27% 27% 16% 1% 143 Independent 13% 33% 27% 27% 0% 48 Republican 18% 27% 38% 16% 1% 111

Liberal 32% 24% 32% 12% 0% 82 Moderate 22% 31% 23% 24% 1% 116 Conservative 18% 27% 39% 16% 1% 89

Likely 2016 Voter 23% 29% 32% 15% 1% 271 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 17% 14% 28% 38% 2% 36

Union household 34% 30% 30% 5% 0% 44 Non-union 20% 27% 32% 20% 1% 261

Read Union Leader 42% 28% 20% 9% 1% 67 Read Boston Globe 39% 38% 12% 11% 0% 43 Read Local Newspapers 34% 31% 21% 14% 0% 89 Watch WMUR 29% 34% 26% 9% 1% 170 Listen to NHPR radio 32% 35% 19% 12% 1% 82 Listen to Conserv. Radio 33% 27% 25% 12% 3% 28

18 to 34 13% 9% 35% 42% 0% 71 35 to 49 25% 31% 24% 21% 0% 80 50 to 64 20% 35% 38% 6% 1% 88 65 and over 34% 34% 25% 4% 3% 56

Male 19% 26% 30% 24% 1% 148 Female 25% 29% 33% 13% 1% 159

High school or less 20% 30% 23% 25% 1% 59 Some college 19% 15% 48% 17% 1% 73 College graduate 17% 32% 30% 21% 1% 99 Post-graduate 35% 33% 23% 9% 0% 72

Attend services 1 or more/week 35% 27% 30% 7% 0% 60 1-2 times a month 11% 40% 29% 21% 0% 27 Less often 22% 20% 32% 26% 0% 82 Never 20% 30% 31% 17% 2% 130

North Country 28% 30% 17% 22% 3% 29 Central / Lakes 23% 23% 36% 18% 0% 40 Mass Border 22% 24% 34% 21% 0% 58 Seacoast 17% 24% 34% 24% 1% 107 Manchester Area 28% 36% 30% 6% 1% 73

If Guinta Was On Ballot in 2016, Would You…

Definitely Vote Consider Voting Definitely Vote For For Guinta For Guinta Another Candidate Don’t Know (N) FIRST CONG DIST LV 4% 22% 46% 28% 271

Registered Democrat 2% 6% 73% 19% 82 Registered Undeclared 1% 22% 43% 33% 116 Registered Republican 11% 39% 18% 32% 71

Democrat 2% 11% 63% 24% 130 Independent 7% 19% 46% 27% 38 Republican 6% 37% 23% 34% 100

Liberal 1% 9% 73% 17% 74 Moderate 1% 15% 51% 32% 102 Conservative 11% 39% 16% 34% 78

Union household 9% 9% 45% 37% 40 Non-union 3% 24% 46% 27% 230

Read Union Leader 8% 19% 49% 23% 59 Read Boston Globe 2% 13% 70% 15% 40 Read Local Newspapers 1% 13% 53% 34% 80 Watch WMUR 5% 24% 48% 23% 162 Listen to NHPR radio 5% 5% 73% 18% 79 Listen to Conserv. Radio 17% 46% 14% 24% 24

18 to 34 0% 19% 32% 48% 57 35 to 49 2% 21% 52% 24% 72 50 to 64 5% 28% 42% 25% 82 65 and over 7% 17% 59% 18% 52

Male 4% 24% 39% 33% 130 Female 4% 20% 52% 24% 141

High school or less 6% 34% 37% 22% 44 Some college 6% 26% 34% 34% 65 College graduate 1% 21% 47% 32% 93 Post-graduate 5% 11% 62% 22% 68

Attend services 1 or more/week 7% 28% 39% 26% 51 1-2 times a month 12% 34% 31% 24% 26 Less often 3% 25% 45% 27% 72 Never 1% 13% 53% 32% 117

North Country 2% 14% 61% 23% 26 Central / Lakes 4% 23% 36% 36% 36 Mass Border 4% 34% 39% 23% 51 Seacoast 2% 20% 50% 28% 91 Manchester Area 8% 18% 44% 29% 67

Favorability Rating – Jack Flanagan

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don’t Know (N) SECOND CONG DIST 6% 9% 3% 82% 305

Registered Democrat 4% 10% 6% 80% 85 Registered Undeclared 8% 9% 2% 81% 156 Registered Republican 6% 6% 3% 85% 61

Democrat 4% 11% 5% 80% 138 Independent 12% 9% 3% 76% 54 Republican 7% 5% 1% 86% 104

Liberal 0% 10% 5% 85% 81 Moderate 7% 8% 3% 81% 127 Conservative 14% 8% 2% 76% 78

Likely 2016 Voter 7% 9% 4% 81% 276 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 3% 8% 0% 89% 30

Union household 7% 12% 7% 74% 35 Non-union 6% 8% 3% 83% 269

Read Union Leader 7% 8% 8% 78% 49 Read Boston Globe 15% 6% 9% 70% 24 Read Local Newspapers 8% 8% 4% 80% 106 Watch WMUR 7% 8% 4% 81% 155 Listen to NHPR radio 3% 11% 8% 77% 109 Listen to Conserv. Radio 7% 7% 2% 84% 31

18 to 34 6% 8% 4% 82% 84 35 to 49 5% 9% 1% 85% 66 50 to 64 7% 8% 4% 81% 94 65 and over 7% 8% 3% 83% 50

Male 9% 9% 4% 78% 149 Female 4% 8% 2% 85% 156

High school or less 6% 8% 3% 83% 55 Some college 13% 6% 2% 79% 71 College graduate 4% 9% 5% 82% 110 Post-graduate 4% 11% 2% 83% 67

Attend services 1 or more/week 11% 10% 3% 76% 57 1-2 times a month 15% 0% 3% 82% 32 Less often 7% 6% 6% 80% 81 Never 2% 10% 2% 86% 130

North Country 3% 0% 6% 91% 26 Central / Lakes 7% 8% 5% 80% 70 Connecticut Valley 5% 8% 2% 85% 90 Mass Border 7% 13% 4% 76% 101 Manchester Area 11% 4% 0% 85% 19