International Corporate Bonds Brazil: May, 2019
International Corporate Bonds - Brazil 5/22/2019 Monthly Update Summary of Calls Macro Overview Exhibit 1 – 5 & 10 YR YTM – US (%) Yield Catcher Despite fierce competition from local debt capital markets – which have been able to 2,80 - Eldorado 8,625% / 2021 (BB-) provide competitive funding for Brazilian corporates YTD, offshore issues have been - Marfrig 8,00% / 2023 (BB-) 2,70 strong. Recent deal activity has been 3-4x oversubscribed thanks to the recent tightening 2,60 Portfolio Builder of longer-term treasuries and solid demand for higher yield bonds (i.e. CSN, Klabin, - Rede D’Or 4,95% / 2028 (BB) Marfrig and JBS). The spread between the 3M and 5YR treasuries moved from -3bps to - 2,50 - Klabin 4,88% / 2027 (BB+) - Cemig 9.25% / 2024 (B) 14bps MoM on as investors remain cautious about the trade-war tensions between China 2,40 and the US. 2,30 Long Duration - Petrobras 5,63% / 2043 (BB-) Brazil’s 5YR CDS has stabilized at 180bps (+9bps MoM) and is trading at 64bps higher than 2,20 Mexico’s CDS (+3bps YoY). Despite the recent progress towards the ongoing pension 2,10 21-Feb-19 13-Mar-19 02-Apr-19 22-Apr-19 12-May-19 Odilon Costa reform and privatizations, the government still has a long road to go in the coming 10YR 5YR 3M Analyst months. Forecasts for economic activity have diminished and Bolsonaro lost some of his Source(s): Bloomberg, prepared by Eleven Research initial popularity following several minor squabbles with the legislative. Brazilian GDP Luis Dotta estimates for 2019 currently stand at 1.24% (vs.
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