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US Presidential Election Next Month Suga promises reforms World News Day Streaming wars MCI(P) 053/04/2020 October 2020 FOUR MORE YEARS? After a tumultuous first term, will US President Donald Trump defy the polls and win a second stint in the White House? What would that mean for Asia, the fight against Covid-19, climate change and global trade? WE BRING YOU SINGAPORE AND THE WORLD UP TO DATE IN THE KNOW News | Live blog | Mobile pushes Web specials | Newsletters | Microsites WhatsApp | SMS Special Features IN THE LOOP ON THE WATCH Facebook | Twitter | Instagram Videos | FB live | Live streams To subscribe to the free newsletters, go to str.sg/newsletters All newsletters connect you to stories on our straitstimes.com website. Data Digest President Donald Trump trails Democratic nominee Joe Biden in most of the swing states he won in 2016. But some races are very close, giving Mr Trump the room to pull off another surprise victory in the Electoral Path to the White House College and clinch four more years in the White House. 270 ELECTORAL VOTES NEEDED TO WIN Clinton 232 2016 306 Trump Biden 226 2020 125 Trump 118 51 57 270 187 33 29 63 Solid Likely Leans electoral votes Toss up Leans Likely Solid Biden Biden Biden to win Trump Trump Trump THE 2020 BATTLEGROUNDS Vermont New 3 Hampshire Washington Montana North Dakota Nebraska 4 Maine CD1 Maine CD2 12 3 3 Minnesota CD2 1 1 10 1 Maine Wisconsin South Dakota 2 10 Oregon Idaho 3 New Massachusetts 7 4 Wyoming Michigan York 11 3 Iowa 16 29 Rhode Island Nebraska 6 4 4 Pennsylvania Illinois Indiana Ohio 20 Connecticut Nevada Utah 7 Colorado 20 11 18 6 6 West New Jersey 9 Kansas Missouri Virginia 14 6 10 Kentucky 5 Virginia California 8 13 Delaware 55 Oklahoma Tennessee North Carolina 3 Arizona New Mexico 7 Arkansas 11 15 Maryland 11 5 6 South 10 Carolina Washington DC Alabama Alaska Texas Georgia 9 3 3 9 16 Note: Maine and Nebraska have a more Hawaii 38 proportional system of allocating their 4 electoral votes. Louisiana Mississippi Florida THE 2020 ELECTION ISSUES 8 6 29 % of registered voters saying each is “very important” to their vote in the SWING STATES 2020 presidential election Economy 79% Arizona Florida Georgia Iowa Michigan Minnesota North Ohio Pennsylvania Texas Wisconsin Carolina Healthcare 68% Supreme Court 64% 11 29 16 6 16 10 15 18 20 38 10 appointments Coronavirus outbreak 62% Violent crime 59% Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Foreign policy 57% 48.3% 47.8% 46.8% 46.5% 49.2% 50.4% 47.1% 49% 49.6% 45.2% 49.8% Gun policy 55% Race and ethnic inequality 52% Immigration 52% Economic inequality 49% Climate change 42% Abortion 40% Note: Based on registered voters Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump 45.3% 46.7% 46.5% 46% 44% 41% 46.6% 45.7% 43.9% 48.4% 44.3% TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATINGS Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Trump Biden +3.0% +1.1% +0.3% +0.5% +5.2% +9.4% +0.5% +3.3% +5.7% +3.2% +5.5% Approve Disapprove Overall job approval 45.5% 53% 2016 winning margin Economy 51.1% 47% Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Clinton Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump Foreign policy 46.3% 52% +3.5 +1.2% +5.1% +9.5% +0.3% +1.5% +3.7% +8.1% +0.7% +9.0% +0.7% Direction of 29.3% 64.1% NOTE: State polling average as at end September the country 1 SOURCES: REALCLEARPOLITICS, PEW RESEARCH CENTRE PHOTOS: BLOOMBERG, REUTERS, THE NEW YORK TIMES STRAITS TIMES GRAPHICS Warren Fernandez Editor-in-Chief, The Straits Times & SPH’s English, Malay and Tamil Media (EMTM) Group Shefali Rekhi Asian Insider Editor Peter Williams Production & Design Editor Eugene Leow AI Video Supervising Editor Dominic Nathan Managing Editor (EMTM) 17 ADVERTISING South Asia Watch Maureen Wee Head of Advertising Sales Indian and Chinese [email protected] troops settle in for Helen Lee winter of discontent Head of Advertising, Product along disputed border Development and Innovation [email protected] EDITORIAL DESK Ronald Kow Sub-editor, The Straits Times Dominique Nelson Journalist, The Straits Times DESIGN Marlone Rubio Executive Artist Anil Kumar Graphic Artist Gareth Chung PHOTO: REUTERS Senior Executive Artist CIRCULATION Eric Ng Head, Circulation Marketing Cover Story Covid-19 Tommy Ong Senior Manager (Circulation) Twists and turns on the way to Lessons from One Million 4 the White House 10 Covid-19 deaths REACH OUT TO US: Circulation & subscription: America careening towards a Louis Koh fork in the road Senior Executive East Asia Watch [email protected] US V-P debate civil and robust, Will Suga chart a different but unlikely to change minds 14 course from Abe? WE WELCOME YOUR FEEDBACK AND VIEWS Letters can be sent to [email protected] South-east Asia Watch Published by Anwar’s gambit shakes The Straits Times, Singapore up Malaysian politics Press Holdings (SPH) 19 Printed by Times Printers Private Limited All rights reserved. No part Global Affairs of this publication may be Europe rethinking reproduced in whole or its approach to China in part without written 23 permission from the publisher. Speaking of Asia US, China and the indelicate 32 art of insults Cover photo: AFP 2 contents PHOTO: THE CANADIAN PRESS World News Day 25 Why real news matters amid twin pandemics of Covid-19 and fake news Country Report Business Trends Extraordinary protest lands Streaming wars in 34 Thailand in uncharted territory 47 South-east Asia Presidential hopefuls jockeying for 2024 race Entertainment Myanmar polls likely to be Asian Americans on the rise subdued, with Suu Kyi win 50 expected Republic’s new drone for security sweeps Big Picture Inside Apple’s new floating 52 store in Singapore East Asia Watch Taiwan’s narrowing 40 defence options People Xi Jinping’s latest purge 42 to ensure stability 3 After a tumultuous first term, US President Donald Trump’s election campaign has been jolted further with a positive Covid-19 test. Some say this could hit his chances of re-election, but he has surprised pundits before. Cover Story Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaking to reporters U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION in Pennsylvania on Sept 17. With President Trump having come down with Covid-19, Mr Biden will Twists and turns on the be able to show that his strategy of wearing masks and avoiding large crowds was prudent. way to the White House PHOTO: REUTERS UNTIL OCT 2, ANALYSING HOW THE VOTE marked by more than 200,000 coronavirus deaths, CHARISSA YONG might go a month ahead of Election Day on Nov a battered economy, and a national reckoning over 3 was a matter of weighing up the knowns – voter racism and police brutality. US Correspondent sentiments, the effects of the presidential debate, Until this twist, most major election models had In New York and historic voting patterns. been predicting a victory for Democratic presidential President Donald Trump’s positive Covid-19 nominee Joe Biden, but it was far from a foregone test, however, plunged the presidential race into conclusion. uncharted territory. Mr Trump has been keen to The former vice-president’s national lead project an image of business as usual after he was diminished from double digits to hover around discharged from hospital and certified as no longer seven points before Mr Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis, contagious by his doctor, hitting the campaign trail unsettling those who feared a repeat of Mr Trump’s again the following week with stops in the swing shock defeat of Mrs Hillary Clinton, whose lead in [email protected] states of Florida, Pennsylvania and Iowa. battleground states shrank to nothing in the days But Mr Trump’s very infection shone a spotlight leading up to the 2016 election. on his handling of the pandemic, which he has But Mr Biden’s lead has since widened back to the consistently downplayed and which pundits see as double digits, both nationally and in some battle- his biggest weakness. Polls show that most voters ground states. For Asia, the latest unfolding events think the President did not take the threat of catching come amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty. the coronavirus seriously enough, and they are The region had already been considering unlikely to change their minds with his comments the effects if Mr Trump were to pull off another that Americans should not fear the coronavirus. surprise victory in the Electoral College, earning “We are now going to be talking about the the mandate to continue his “America First” foreign coronavirus as the top issue for the next four policy of pulling away from multilateral institutions, weeks,” said Dr Ian Bremmer, president and founder international agreements and global norms. of political risk analysis firm Eurasia Group and In four years, he has withdrawn the United States GZero Media. “That’s a big deal, because President from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, the Trump... doesn’t do as well talking about it, he’s not Paris Agreement on combating climate change, the seen to have handled it very well.” World Health Organisation and the Iran nuclear deal. Mr Trump’s coronavirus bombshell comes as Allies and friends of the US have been drawn into Americans have endured a tumultuous summer its great power competition with China, pressured to 4 United States President Donald Trump at an reject Chinese technology and denounce Chinese be- on the voter group that propelled him to victory in election campaign rally haviour, and pressed into paying more for their defence.
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