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Hibernia REIT Robust final quarter means a solid FY Company Events expected 13-May Greggs; Q121 Trading Update Hammerson; Final Div Payment Date UK Economic View HPI accelerates to new highs - RICS Morses Club; FY20 Results 14-May Derwent London; AGM UK Economic View House prices pick up as stock for sale 17-May ; FY21 Results reaches a new low 18-May Britvic; Q221 Results Cranswick; FY21 Results Eurocell Strong trading leads to upgrades DCC; FY21 Results Land Securities Group; FY Results Draper Esprit Lyst fund raising, pre-IPO round? UDG Healthcare; Q221 Results 19-May Great Portland Estates; FY Results Morses Club Small profit reported for FY20 Marston's; Half Years Whitbread; H121 Irish Banks PTSB prices T2 deal at 3.0%; busy few weeks 20-May easyJet; Q221 Results for Irish bank issuance

Economic Events Ireland 13-May CPI Apr21 14-May Trade Balance

United Kingdom 18-May ILO Unemployment Rate Mar21 19-May CPI Apr21 PPI Apr21 ONS House Prices Mar21

United States

Europe

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Hibernia REIT Robust final quarter means a solid FY expected

Hibernia REIT, the central Dublin office specialist, releases its full year results, for the 12- Recommendation: Buy months ended 31st March 2021, on the 26th May. Closing Price: €1.15

In our preview note, published this morning, we note how Hibernia had a strong operational Colm Lauder +353-1-641 6042 FY21 with rent collection amongst the best in Europe for an office investor and progress [email protected] across its development pipeline. Rent collection has been close to normal despite lockdowns, and we expect 99%+ for FY21. This provides comfort around earnings, with EPRA EPS

forecast at 6.3c, up from 5.5c in FY20. Valuations too, while acknowledging the uncertainty on the future of the office, are now expected stronger than forecasted. Separately, HBRN has been at the forefront of the ESG agenda, committing to becoming a net zero carbon business by 2030, making it one of first Irish property investors to do so.

The latest MSCI data shows that central Dublin office values fell by a only -0.7% in Q1-21, bringing 6-month declines (aligning with HBRN’s H2) to -1.2%, a improvement on the -3.8% decline in HBRN’s portfolio in H1. We had forecast a -3.4% for H2, but now expect HBRN to outperform our NAV forecasts (165c). While the Dublin occupier market remains quiet due to COVID, landlords in in cities at more advanced stages of re-opening, like Derwent London, have noted increased occupier demand for modern offices versus older. HBRN with a high- quality, mostly new portfolio, is well positioned to capitalise on this bifurcation.

Hibernia trades at a discount of over 30% to our FY21 NAV of 165c, making it amongst the cheapest in the sector, with peers trading at closer to 10%. With a strong operational year and valuation out-performance now expected, we are reiterating our “Buy” call ahead of results with Price Target of 140c (upside 22%).

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UK Economic View HPI accelerates to new highs - RICS

The RICS House Price Balance for April this morning reinforces an acceleration in house price Shaun McDonnell inflation across the UK as demand growth continues to outstrip supply. +353-1-641 9127 [email protected]

The headline price balance in the RICS survey rose to a new record high of +75 in April, the Dermot O’Leary +353-1-641 9167 third consecutive increase and up from +62 in March. All regions witnessed price growth, [email protected] with the highest being in the South-West. The price squeeze is a result of ongoing robust demand and sluggish supply. On demand, a net balance of +44% respondents reported a pick-up in new enquiries, similar to March. On a regional basis, the net balance is positive in all areas of the UK, led by Northern Ireland (c.+80% 3-mth avg.), Wales (c.+55% 3-mth avg.), and Yorkshire & Humber (c.+50% 3-mth avg.). Furthermore, a net balance of +34% in newly agreed sales coming onto the market was reported, an easing on March levels, but still indicative of a firm demand backdrop.

On the supply-side, the net balance for new instructions fell 4%, to +17% in April, which combined with demand trends resulted in lower stock with a fall to 40 reported as the number of properties on estate agents’ books versus 46 at the end of last year.

Looking forward, the expectation is that some froth will come out of the demand- side of the market - however, prices are still expected to rise in the near term, shown by a rise in net balance to +47% in April from +43% in March. The 12- month expectation is also that prices will rise (reported by c. + 63%). This reinforces our views from this morning’s SiteWorks report.

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UK Economic View House prices pick up as stock for sale reaches a new low

Similar to trends seen in the wider market in this morning's RICS survey, demand continues Dermot O’Leary to remain strong in the UK new homes market, while pricing now appears to be ticking +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] higher too, according to our latest SiteWorks report this morning.

Demand for new homes remained strong as the UK economy reopened further in April. As annual comparisons are distorted by the collapse at the start of the pandemic, we focus on two-year changes. Relative to 2019, our measure of sales (property de-listings) shows a 12% increase, a similar rate of growth to that seen in March. Supply, meanwhile, has not kept pace, resulting in the stock of new homes for sale falling to a new record low in our series. This is leading to upward pressure on prices, with the unique Goodbody new homes asking price index ticking up to c.4% in the most recent data, having remained stable for most of the period since the economy reopened after the first lockdown.

Like RICS, the report highlights the ongoing robust demand and pricing backdrop for the housebuilders in the UK at the current time. Having underperformed slightly over the last month the UK housebuilding sector is up c.12% year to date versus the FTSE 100 which is up almost 9%. Updates have been strong and despite the outperformance in the year to date our housebuilding analysts still believe that the sector offers value. Persimmon remains the top pick given its affordable selling point, its high ROCE and its industry-leading balance sheet. See note this morning for more detail.

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Eurocell Strong trading leads to upgrades

Eurocell has released a trading update for the first four months of the year with performance Recommendation: Buy ahead of management expectations. Group like for like sales have increased by 26% yoy Closing Price: £2.88 compared to +8% in Jan-Feb. On a two year on yoy basis this growth is +20%. Encouragingly growth is strong across both divisions with Profiles recording lfl growth of 24% David O'Brien +353-1-641 9230 or 17% compared to 2019, while the Building Plastics Division delivered 28% yoy growth or david.a.o'[email protected] +23% compared to 2019.

Sales growth figures include c.2% price increases and a resin surcharge as the group mitigates resin cost increases in a very tight market. Eurocell’s unique business model leaves

it well placed to lean on its recycling plants for resin which contributed 25% in 2020. The fit This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates out of the new warehouse is proceeding to plan with the final stages expected to be complete in Q221 with performance levels set to improve further as new systems and processes are embedded. Management has confirmed it will proceed with the roll out of 12 new branches for Building Plastics during the year.

Management notes that the outlook for the first half has improved while the view into the second half remains understandably cautious. We envisage upgrading FY21 group PBT by over 10% to c.£23m which implies a retrenchment in top line for the second half. This is a very solid statement from Eurocell as it demonstrates its ability to grow its market share profitably.

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Draper Esprit Lyst fund raising, pre-IPO round?

News from Draper Esprit yesterday indicated that it has participated in an $85m funding Recommendation: Buy round for former core portfolio holding, Lyst. Existing investors aside, new investors include Closing Price: £7.35 Fidelity International, Novator Capital, Giano Capital and C4 Ventures. Gerry Hennigan +353-1-641 9274 Fashion etailer, Lyst, was one of the eight core holdings at IPO in 2016 and according to the [email protected] statement from Draper has seen strong growth in 2020 “with over 150m shoppers using the Lyst app and website to buy from an assortment of over 8m products from 17,000 brands

and retailers.” GMV last year exceeded $500m, following 1100% growth in new users on the Lyst app. Lifetime GMV is now over $2bn.

We note too speculation from Sky suggesting that the funding is a precursor to a possible IPO, while TechCrunch attributes a value to Lyst of $500m post the round.

As per our report on April 27th, we attribute a March 2022 value to Draper’s interest in Lyst of £14m, which based on the latest funding round, and speculated valuation, would appear to be overly conservative in the context that Draper had an interest in Lyst in the range of 11% - 15% prior to its exclusion from the core- portfolio in FY20.

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Morses Club Small profit reported for FY20

Morses Club (MCL) reported full year results for the 52-week period ending 27th February this Recommendation: Buy morning. Revenues of £100m (Goodbody: £98m) were -25% y/y due to lower demand levels Closing Price: £0.60 as a result of Covid-19 and an inability to lend to HCC customers during the first five months of the first half. Impairment charges of £21m came in a little lower than we had expected Barry Egan +353-1-641 6059 (Goodbody: £26m), which implies a material decline in Impairments / Revenues to 20.8% for [email protected] FY20 (FY19: 27.2%), which the company attributes to improved quality of the loan book – which is encouraging. The combination of the small revenue beat and the significantly lower

impairment charges means that risk-adjusted revenues of £79m were well ahead of our projection for £72m. While operating costs of £71m were materially higher than our £67m estimate this includes a £2m complaints charge (which we had estimated but treated as an exceptional cost in our forecasting). Interest costs were slightly lower than we expected, reflecting lower borrowings. Exceptional costs of £5.3m were higher than we expected (Goodbody forecast for c.£2.5m excluding complaints). All in all, MCL reported small £0.5m post-tax profit for FY20 which compares favourably to our forecast for a post-tax loss of £3.5m owing to the revenue and impairment beats.

On the strategy, the CEO notes that the new operating model is already serving to reduce costs and drive efficiencies. He reiterates that MCL is responding to “an emerging desire from consumers for a wider range of products and services within the financial services sector”, with the Digital initiatives central to these ambitions. While it is still very early days on this front, it was encouraging to read the positive commentary in relation to Digital customer growth through the pandemic in the results statement. The CEO also notes that the HCC customer base should recover and points to the scope for MCL to win new customers as a result of Provident Financial Group’s (PFG) exit from the business – indeed, this could be quite significant for MCL. On complaints, MCL flags that there has been a noticeable increase in complaints from CMCs and customers. However, it is noted that the level of complaints that MCL is seeing is proportionately lower than for other lenders (i.e., PFG), which is consistent with the data we are seeing from the FCA/FOS and the incremental (just) £2m complaints provision charge was bang in line with our own expectations. It remains to be seen whether MCL is behind PFG in terms of CMC focus but the soundings from management are positive and home credit has been ‘in focus’ from a complainant perspective for some time.

All in all, it’s a broadly positive update from MCL. We expect a particular focus on the results call (10:30 this morning) on the outlook for the home credit sector and the opportunity to win new customers on the back of PFG’s exit – as well as MCL’s ability

to drive further material growth in its Digital division in the current financial year This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates and beyond.

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Irish Banks PTSB prices T2 deal at 3.0%; busy few weeks for Irish bank issuance

PTSB yesterday priced its €250m 10.25NC5.25 Tier 2 bonds at 3.0%, at MS+322bps. It Eamonn Hughes looks like the books were >€600m, so 2.4x covered. Indeed, it’s been a busy few weeks of +353-1-641 9442 issuance for the Irish banks. Bank of Ireland in early May priced up a €500m Green T2 [email protected] 10.25NC5.25 bond at MS+165bps. The deal generated €1.7bn of gross orders (3.4x Barry Egan oversubscribed). Then last week, AIB had a €750m 6.5NC5.5 Green senior issuance with an +353-1-641 6059 order book >€1.5bn at the peak, so 2x oversubscribed and the deal was priced at [email protected] MS+75bps. Goodbody was Joint Lead on that AIB transaction.

As we noted earlier in the week, when the PTSB new issue was first revealed, at

end FY20, PTSB had T2 capital of c.70bps of its 18.2% of total capital. With €8.5bn

of RWAs, the deal would equate to c.3 percentage points of total capital, so this week’s new issue looks to be taking place with an eye on a potential deal with Ulster Bank/Natwest in mind and supplementing its counterparty credentials for Natwest on any potential transaction. But standing back, looking at the sector as a whole, it still looks like the credit market remains keen on Irish bank paper.

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Issuer & Analyst Disclosures

Analyst Certification The named Research Analyst certifies that: (1) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers. (2) No part of my remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report.

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