Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: ICR00002979

IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IDA-43420, IDA-43430, IDA-43480, IDA-H3200, and IDA-H3210) ON THREE PROPOSED CREDITS IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 6 MILLION (US$9 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

Public Disclosure Authorized TO THE REPUBLIC OF BENIN SDR 11.9 MILLION (US$18 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF MALI AND SDR 88.6 MILLION (US$135 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA AND ON TWO PROPOSED GRANTS IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 6 MILLION (US$9 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA AND

Public Disclosure Authorized SDR 9.9 MILLION (US$15 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER THE NIGER BASIN AUTHORITY FOR A NIGER BASIN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABLE ECOSYSTEMS MANAGEMENT PROJECT June 28, 2018

Water Global Practice Africa Region

Public Disclosure Authorized

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective December 31st, 2017)

Currency Unit = SDR 1.00 = US$ 1.42 US$ 1.00 = SDR 0.70

FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30

Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Rachid Benmessaoud Senior Global Practice Director: Guang Zhe Chen Practice Manager: Steven N. Schonberger Task Team Leader(s): Pierrick Fraval ICR Main Contributor: Taibou Adamou Maiga

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AFD French Development Agency (Agence française de développement) APL Adaptable Program Lending CBA Cost-benefit Analysis CBN Central Bank of Nigeria CER Certified Emission Reduction CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CSCRP Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (Cadre Stratégique pour la Croissance et la Réduction de la Pauvreté) ELD Economics of Land Degradation EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return ERPA Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan EU European Union GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit) ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ISR Implementation Status and Results Report M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MESL Mainstream Energy Solutions MWRD Multipurpose Water Resources Development NBA Niger Basin Authority NFS National Focal Structure NIA National Implementation Agency NPV Net Present Value O&M Operations and Maintenance PAD Project Appraisal Document PAG Government Action Plan PDO Project Development Objective PDES Social and Economic Development Strategy (Plan de Développement Economique et Social) PHCN Power Holding Company of Nigeria PMCU Project Management and Coordination Unit PMU Project Management Unit PWC1 Permanent Water Commission RAP Resettlement Action Plan SDAP Sustainable Development Action Plan SVP Shared Vision Process TCN Transmission Company of Nigeria TSA Treasury Single Account TTL Task Team Leader VC Videoconferencing WRDSEM Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management

1 The permanent Water Commission is now named in the water charter “the Permanent Water Technical Committee”

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DATA SHEET ...... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ...... 6 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL ...... 6 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) ...... 10 II. OUTCOME ...... 14 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ...... 14 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...... 16 C. EFFICIENCY ...... 22 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ...... 23 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS ...... 23 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ...... 25 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ...... 25 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ...... 27 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 29 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ...... 29 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ...... 30 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ...... 33 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ...... 34 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 34 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ...... 38 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ...... 49 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ...... 51 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ...... 52 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 69 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS ...... 70

The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

DATA SHEET

BASIC INFORMATION

Product Information Project ID Project Name

Niger Basin Water Resources Development and P093806 Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project

Country Financing Instrument

Western Africa Investment Project Financing

Original EA Category Revised EA Category

Full Assessment (A) Full Assessment (A)

Organizations

Borrower Implementing Agency

The Niger Basin Authority Niger Basin Authority (NBA)

Project Development Objective (PDO)

Original PDO The project development objective is to achieve a sustainable increase in the overall productivity of existing water resources to foster economic development in selected countries of the Niger River Basin.

Revised PDO The (new) WRD-SEM APL 1 Development Objective is: to enhance regional coordination and improve water resources management in theNiger River Basin.

PDO as stated in the legal agreement to enhance regional coordination, development and sustainability of water resources management in the Niger River Basin

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

FINANCING

Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing

9,000,000 8,993,034 8,978,134 IDA-43420

18,000,000 15,860,471 15,483,330 IDA-43430

135,000,000 133,584,298 131,236,002 IDA-43480

15,000,000 14,732,657 14,852,647 IDA-H3200

9,000,000 8,743,448 8,372,877 IDA-H3210 Total 186,000,000 181,913,908 178,922,990

Non-World Bank Financing Borrower 0 0 0 African Development Bank 34,000,000 0 33,660,000 CANADA: Canadian International Development 4,720,000 0 3,776,000 Agency (CIDA) EC: European Commission 3,540,000 0 3,540,000 Total 42,260,000 0 40,976,000 Total Project Cost 228,260,000 181,913,908 219,898,990

KEY DATES

Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 03-Jul-2007 08-Nov-2007 16-May-2011 31-Jan-2013 31-Dec-2017 23-Nov-2011 01-Dec-2011 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING

Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 06-Jun-2011 20.37 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 23-Dec-2014 130.02 Change in Implementing Agency Change in Project Development Objectives Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Change in Implementation Schedule

KEY RATINGS

Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Modest

RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs

Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 12-Dec-2007 Satisfactory Satisfactory 1.32

02 19-May-2008 Satisfactory Satisfactory 10.64

03 04-Dec-2008 Satisfactory Satisfactory 11.64

04 28-May-2009 Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 13.69 Moderately 05 09-Oct-2009 Moderately Unsatisfactory 14.01 Unsatisfactory Moderately 06 17-Mar-2010 Moderately Unsatisfactory 14.85 Unsatisfactory Moderately 07 09-Jan-2011 Moderately Unsatisfactory 17.44 Unsatisfactory Moderately 08 22-Sep-2011 Moderately Unsatisfactory 37.69 Unsatisfactory 09 27-Nov-2011 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 37.69

10 11-Jun-2012 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 42.00

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

11 01-Jan-2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 46.71

12 17-May-2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 54.25

13 26-Jul-2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 57.03

14 03-May-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 100.66

15 23-Nov-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 127.81

16 16-Jun-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 147.85

17 28-Mar-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 163.93

18 30-Jun-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 167.18

19 30-Dec-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 175.76

20 29-Jun-2017 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 176.67

21 16-Jan-2018 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 177.52

SECTORS AND THEMES

Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%)

Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 10 Irrigation and Drainage 5 Other Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 5

Public Administration 12 Central Government (Central Agencies) 12

Energy and Extractives 59 Renewable Energy Hydro 59

Water, Sanitation and Waste Management 19 Other Water Supply, Sanitation and Waste 19 Management

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Urban and Rural Development 8

Rural Development 8

Land Administration and Management 8

Environment and Natural Resource Management 91

Renewable Natural Resources Asset Management 16

Biodiversity 8

Landscape Management 8

Environmental policies and institutions 25

Water Resource Management 50

Water Institutions, Policies and Reform 50

ADM STAFF

Role At Approval At ICR

Regional Vice President: Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Makhtar Diop

Country Director: Mark D. Tomlinson Rachid Benmessaoud

Senior Global Practice Director: Eustache Ouayoro Guang Zhe Chen

Practice Manager: Eustache Ouayoro Steven N. Schonberger

Task Team Leader(s): Ousmane Dione Pierrick Fraval

ICR Contributing Author: Taibou Adamou Maiga

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL

Context

1. Covering 1.5 million km2 in nine riparian countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Chad), the Niger River has a total length of 4,200 km. This area is characterized by high population growth2. The livelihoods of more than 72 percent of the basin population depend directly on its water resources and 85 percent of the population live in rural areas. The effects of climate change coupled with the use of archaic and inefficient methods of land, water, and flora management contribute to severe ecosystem degradation which in turn has a direct negative impact on rural communities.

2. The river basin is endowed with huge water resources development potential but this potential is poorly used and managed. Even though additional water infrastructure is needed to mitigate the seasonal and annual variability of the Niger River, the existing infrastructure is suffering from inadequate operation and poor maintenance, hindering the long-term sustainability of these expensive and important assets that improve the welfare of the population. In addition, the poor land and water management practices coupled with high water variability in the basin had heavily contributed to the ecosystem degradation and the income reduction of the population. Therefore, optimizing benefits from existing water infrastructure and adequately managing the water resources will lead to increased productivity and income generation.

3. In 2004, the nine riparian countries committed to regional cooperation for joint development and sustainable management of shared water resources through coordinated multisectoral investments and common water governance rules. This initiated the Shared Vision Process (SVP) that led to a basin-wide Sustainable Development Action Plan (SDAP) piloted by the Niger Basin Authority (NBA) which was approved in 2007. Its pillars are (a) socioeconomic infrastructure (development of cascade storage dams for irrigation and hydropower), (b) ecosystem conservation and natural resource protection, and (c) capacity building and stakeholder participation, including a strengthened legal and regulatory framework. The SDAP comprises a set of interventions/investments distributed across the three pillars and countries. The countries decided to empower and enable the NBA, so that it could deliver on the SDAP and build the legal instruments and institutional mechanisms for cooperative development of water resources in the basin. The World Bank, together with five other donors, accompanied the SVP and committed to align their future—or ongoing—financial assistance to the pillars of the SDAP. The NBA lacked operational capacity. Therefore, supporting the NBA’s institutional strengthening and capacity building at all levels (headquarter and country focal structures) was key to promoting regional cooperation and growth in the basin area.

4. The project was aligned with the World Bank’s Africa region strategy to support regional integration efforts. It is a response to a special request from NBA riparian countries to the World Bank, considering its convening power to gather other donors who can support large investment needs. The

2 Population growth in the Niger Basin was estimated at 2.8 percent and the population was estimated to be 110 million in 2006.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

World Bank’s involvement in the renewal of the collaborative framework and the successful reform of the NBA have inspired the ownership and strong commitment of the riparian country. The coordinated and integrated approach can be a powerful instrument to (a) prevent potential conflicts associated to unilateral development of river’s resources, (b) promote regional integration, and (c) increase opportunities for poverty reduction through the management of shared resources. The World Bank’s regional and worldwide experience in preparing and funding similar water resources management projects (Senegal River Basin Project, P093826) has been a critical determinant in its selection as lead agency under the donor’s collaborative framework to support the NBA for this project.

5. The project was the first of an Adaptable Program Lending (APL), focused on the five countries that share the main course of the River Niger. The APL1 was focus on Benin, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Nigeria. Moving to APL2, with an extension of the financing to the other member countries, was dependent on the countries being able to meet some defined policy, institutional, and legal triggers. These triggers are as follows: (a) the finalization of the water charter on Niger Basin, (b) the adoption of the Niger Basin Regional Environment code, (c) the development and adoption of legal instruments for joint management and optimization of large infrastructure, dispute resolution, and arbitrage enforcement by riparian countries, and (d) the creation of a Permanent Water Commission (PWC). In addition, a technical trigger was that the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHNC) has met the expected output in terms of availability of the rehabilitated units 5, 6, and 12 of Kainji power plant.

6. The effectiveness of some of the abovementioned triggers feed the legal instruments target set in the Results Framework. This target contributes to the measurement of the achievements on the regional coordination for water resources management in the Niger River Basin. The legal instruments to be adopted are (a) the Niger Basin Regional Environment code, (b) the Agreement on Common Guarantee of Infrastructure, (c) the Agreement on Joint Management of Infrastructure, and (d) the Agreement on Dispute Resolution and Arbitrage. Setting this trigger-based approach in the project implementation has the objective of establishing incentives to quickly put in place the required instruments to enhance regional coordination, development, and sustainability of water resources management in the Niger River Basin.

Theory of Change (Results Chain)

7. To address the issues mentioned in the previous section, the project intended to fulfill three main objectives in the Niger River Basin: first, enhance regional coordination for water resources management according to the jointly developed basin-wide plan (SDAP) by reinforcing the capacity of the regional institution, NBA, and its country-level focal structures; second, enhance development of water resources through the water infrastructure rehabilitation works and preparation studies and/or realization of new water infrastructure; and third, enhance sustainability of water resources by implementing the ecosystems’ regeneration activities.

8. The lack of sufficient robust legal instruments along with the NBA’s weak leadership had led to competitive unilateral development of river’s resources. To address the issue of regional coordination for water resources management in the Niger River Basin, the project sought to (a) enhance regional coordination for the implementation of planned activities according to the SDAP and (b) empower the NBA with legal instruments and an institutional mechanism for water resources management.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

(a) Regional coordination for the implementation of activities according to SDAP. These activities aimed to enable the NBA to set up an overall performance evaluation system, to strengthen communication and practices to share information, knowledge, and experience, and to manage and supervise the project, on one hand. On the other hand, it aimed to enable the NBA National Focal Structures (NFSs) and National Implementation Agencies (NIAs) to manage and implement investment programs according to SDAP. The project built the capacity of key stakeholders, starting with the NBA itself, NFS, and NIA through trainings, equipment, and establishing an overall monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system.

(b) Empowering the NBA with legal instruments and institutional mechanisms for water resources management. The project had supported the elaboration/validation process of legal instruments through specific studies on quality enhancement and validation workshops. In addition, the project had supported the finalization of the basin water charter and the creation of supporting committees of this charter that set the institutional mechanisms for the development and management of water resources.

9. There was inadequate operations and maintenance (O&M) of existing water infrastructure due to delays in maintenance and unutilized development potential in the Niger River Basin. To address the issue of the regional development of water resources in the river basin, the project sought to contribute by financing rehabilitation works for the Kainji and Jebba hydropower plants to increase energy production in Kainji and secure existing energy production in Jebba. In addition, feasibility studies of dams were envisaged in Nigeria, Niger, Mali, and Guinea, and small dams and small irrigation schemes rehabilitation were planned.

10. The poor land and water management practices coupled with high water variability in the basin had heavily contributed to the ecosystem degradation and the income reduction of the population. To contribute to the sustainable management of water resources, the project had planned activities of watershed restoration and agroforestry, income generation, and fish production.

Figure 1. Schematic Overview of the Project’s Theory of Change (Results Chain)

Note: PDO = Project Development Objective; * After 2014 project restructuring, these two PDO outcomes were simplified to “improve water resources management in the Niger River Basin.”

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Project Development Objectives (PDOs)

11. PDOs. The PDO as stated in the legal agreement was to “enhance regional coordination, development and sustainability of water resources management in the Niger River Basin.” The original project’s PDO is the same as the program PDO.

Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators

12. Key expected outcomes and outcome indicators. Key outcome indicators at approval were linked to all the parts of the PDO and contributed to the SDAP. Three outcomes come out from the PDO and every PDO outcome has a set of indicators as shown in table 1.

Table 1. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators PDO Outcomes Outcomes indicators Enhance regional coordination for Water resources • Percentage of activities implemented according to management in Niger River Basin Niger Basin SDAP Enhance regional development of water resources • Hydropower capacity (MW) rehabilitated at Kainji in the Niger River Basin and Jebba hydropower plants • Hectares of rehabilitated or additional irrigated surface in Mopti region (Mali), Tillaberi region (Niger) and Karimama and Malanville districts (Benin) Enhance sustainability of water resources in the • Percentage of watershed areas in Faranah region Niger River Basin (Guinea), Mopti region (Mali), Dosso and Tillaberi. regions (Niger) and Alibori region (Benin) using agroforestry, river bank stabilization, silt and sedimentation control

Components

13. At approval, the project was composed of three components.

Component 1: NBA institutional strengthening and capacity building (E3. US$7.77 million; A4. US$10.73 million)

14. The objective of this component was to enhance the capacity of the NBA and its NFSs including other national institutions involved in implementing the First Phase Project of the Niger Basin Program. This was to be achieved through (a) the NBA institutional strengthening and its capacity building, (b) strengthening and capacity building of national water resources management institutions, and (c) institutional support and strengthening of regional water resources management and planning. After the 2014 project restructuring the project Component1’s cost was increased from US$ 7.77 million to US$10.73 million. This increase is done because US$7.77 million was provided to only cover 5-year

3 E. Estimated at Appraisal 4 A. Actual After the last project restructuring of December 2014.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

activities of capacity building and project management and supervision, and with the project end date extension to December 2017 it is fair to expect such an increase.

Component 2: Rehabilitation, optimization and development of regional infrastructure (E. US$ 138.45 million; A. US$ 134.62 million)

15. The objective of this component was to support the rehabilitation and upgrading works of existing large water infrastructures of regional importance and the regional planning framework. This objective was to be achieved through (a) the rehabilitation works of the Kainji dam and hydropower plant, (b) the rehabilitation works of the Jebba hydropower dam, and (c) the assessment of the optimization and the management options for the development of regional water infrastructure. Some activities were cancelled with the 2014 restructuring (see section B on significant changes). This reduction in works scope explains the change in resource allocation for the component.

Component 3: Sustainable management of selected degraded ecosystems and rehabilitation of small water infrastructure (E. US$ 39.78 million; A. US$ 40.65 million)

16. The objective of this component was to combine the rehabilitation of small water infrastructure and ecosystems management to support income-generating activities. Considering technical, social, and political criteria, the areas and related activities were selected in a participatory process to engage the communities for the sustainable management of the water resources. Selected areas included the upper basin in Guinea (region of Faranah), the headwaters tributaries in Benin (upper Alibori, Goungoun, Sota, and Goroubi - Karimama and Malanville Districts), the Inner Delta in Mali (Circles of Mopti, Douentza, Djenne, and Tenenkou), and the Niger River middle section in Niger Republic (regions of Tillabéri and Dosso). The selected activities were as follows: (a) rehabilitation and diversification of small dams in Niger and Benin, (b) rehabilitation and extension of small irrigation schemes (Benin, Niger, and Mali), (c) supporting development of traditional fisheries (Niger and Mali), and (d) supporting watershed restoration and agroforestry (Benin, Guinea, Mali, and Niger). There is a light increase in the resource allocated to this component, while some activities were cancelled in Benin, Guinea, and Niger with the 2014 restructuring. At appraisal the activities’ costs were underestimated, and, in addition, the safeguards compliance costs were not considered. This explained the increase in resource allocation for the component.

B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE)

Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets

17. The December 2014 restructuring led to changes in (a) the PDO, (b) the end date, (c) cancellation of specific activities found not necessary and (d) safeguards, as OP 4.09 (Pest Management) was triggered. The new PDO became ‘to enhance regional coordination and improve water resources management in the Niger River Basin’. The PDO was revised because the scope of the project was reduced to ensure a good link between the project target indicators, achievements, and activities. The PDO as stated, can be unpacked as follows: (a) ‘enhance regional coordination in the Niger River Basin’ and (b) ‘Improve water resources management in the Niger River Basin’.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Revised PDO Indicators

Table 2. Revised Outcomes and Outcome indicators

PDO Outcomes Outcomes indicators Enhance regional • Percentage of activities implemented according to the Niger Basin coordination in Niger River Sustainable Development Action Plan Basin • Number of legal instruments adopted by riparian integrated water countries for integrated water resources management at regional level Improve water resources • Generation capacity of hydropower rehabilitated under the project management in the Niger • Land area where sustainable land management practices River Basin • Direct project beneficiaries • Female beneficiaries

Revised Components

18. Revised components. With the 2014 restructuring, the project components were not fundamentally changed in terms of headings. The changes operated had reduced the scope of components by cancelling some activities or downscaling/modifying the number of tasks under Components 1, 2, and 3. The previous description of the components are valid for the revised components. In fact, the deletion/modification of some activities did not have a significant impact on the project PDO.

Component 1: NBA institutional strengthening and capacity building

19. In this component, the change was done in Subcomponent 1-c. Three out of eight activities in Subcomponent 1-c were cancelled. These activities are: (i) support the establishment of a Regional Consultative Group to build a participatory consensus on water infrastructure development in the Niger Basin; (ii) prepare legal instruments for joint management and optimization of large infrastructure, dispute resolution, and arbitrage enforcement by riparian countries; and (iii) establish sub-basin commissions to apply the required subsidiary principles to implement the SDAP. The reasons of this choice are: (a) the cancellation of these activities happened in a context of budget constraints as the allocated budget for the activities was underestimated, (b) activities indicated in (i) and (iii) had not started at the time of the project restructuring so it was agreed to plan for them in APL2, and (c) for the activity indicated in (ii), the project had financed the studies but the quality of the studies was not satisfactory for the countries and the NBA. The firm in charge of the studies (TRACTEBEL) was unable to address comments received from the NBA. At the time of the restructuring it was agreed to cancel it from APL1 and plan for it in APL2 project.

Component 2: Rehabilitation, optimization, and development of regional infrastructure

20. Modifications were undertaken in the three subcomponents of Component 2 of the original project. Safeguards consideration to comply with World Bank operational policy, procurement processing, and contracts management issues have increased the projected costs in planned activities. This led to some adjustments in the scope of work.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Subcomponent 2-a: Rehabilitation of Kainji hydropower dam

21. The rehabilitation works of the navigation lock was cancelled.

Subcomponent 2-b: Rehabilitation of Jebba hydropower dam

22. Rehabilitation of electromechanical equipment: (a) major spare parts were modified; (b) transformer parts were cancelled; and (c) penstocks and scroll cases were cancelled. Civil works: works on the tailrace spillway channel and grouting of auxiliary dam no. 3 were modified and works on rehabilitation of the navigation lock were cancelled. Prevention of tree invasion: (a) the removal of submerged tree logs and debris around turbines and spillway intakes (200 m upstream from dam axis) was modified, and (b) the removal of dead trees in the reservoir was cancelled.

Subcomponent 2-c: Supporting options assessment for regional water infrastructure development

23. Zungeru studies in Nigeria: feasibility and detailed studies for Zungeru dam site in Nigeria was cancelled and replaced by a new activity, “screening of potential hydropower sites in the Niger Basin within Nigeria and preparation of a master plan of Benue sub-basin in Nigeria. Niger Kandadji dam studies: (a) updates on the resettlement action plan (RAP) of the first wave out of two were agreed and (b) the detailed engineering design of Kandadji dam was cancelled because it was conducted by other development partners. Taoussa dam in Mali: complementary studies were cancelled because they were financed by another donor.

Component 3: Sustainable management of selected degraded ecosystems and rehabilitation of small water infrastructure

24. All the four subcomponents were affected by changes in the scope of their activities compared to the original projects. The reasons for works scope reduction are similar to Component 2, in addition the costs at appraisal was underestimated. Changes are described in the following paragraphs.

Subcomponent 3-a: Rehabilitation and diversification of small dams

25. The number of small dam rehabilitations in Benin is reduced from 12 to 7 dams and the activity related to the diversification of agricultural activities was cancelled. Activities related to the rehabilitation of Aboka dam in Niger were cancelled.

Subcomponent 3-b: Rehabilitation and extension of small irrigation schemes

26. The rehabilitation of the irrigation scheme of Kourani and the one of Lossa Kokomani in Niger were cancelled due to lack of funds. Development of small irrigation schemes in Benin was modified. This activity increased to 1,500 ha from 250 ha.

Subcomponent 3-c: Support the development of traditional fisheries

27. The promotion of sustainable fishing practices and fish production processing was modified. The number of fish pools and fish-farming ponds in Mali were reduced to 120 pools and 20 fish farming ponds due to limited funding available.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Subcomponent 3-d: Watershed restoration and agro-forestry

28. The activity related to river bank stabilization and erosion control in Mali and Niger was modified from 6 km of dykes and 9 km of vegetation in Mali to 2 km of mechanical protection and 9.3 km of biological protection. Stabilization of 200 km of Koris’ embankments in Niger was modified to stabilization of 6 km of Koris’ embankments.

29. Reforestation and revegetation in Niger was modified from 6 million plants produced and planted to 32 plant nurseries.

Other Changes

30. Implementation period. The implementation period of the project at appraisal was 5 years with January 31, 2013 as the end date. A first level 2 restructuring was made in June 2011, to extend the project end date from January 31, 2013, to December 31, 2014. The reasons for this restructuring are (a) delays in the technical studies of Component35, (b) the need to relaunch the procurement process of the rehabilitation contract of Kainji hydropower plant, and (c) the slow pace at which the NBA itself to supervise the implementation of the investments.

31. A second restructuring (level 1) extended the implementation period to December 31, 2017. The World Bank supervision team had noticed and recommended to the NBA and beneficiary countries, the need to extend the project end date since early 2014. It was anticipated that the planned activities could not be delivered by the closure date of December 31, 2014. After an evaluation of the time required for completion of activities in each country, the following closure dates for every country were decided during the restructuring: (a) Niger closure date December 31, 2015; (b) Benin, Mali, and Nigeria closure date June 30, 2016; and (c) Guinea closure date December 31, 2017.

32. Pest Management (OP 4.09) was triggered to comply with the safeguard policies. The policy on pest management was not triggered at appraisal when irrigation and agriculture activities were planned in Niger, Benin, Mali, and Guinea. However, during implementation, before restructuring, all activities were compliant with safeguard policies, including Pest Management. Pest Management Plans were prepared and disclosed in 2012: in Guinea (August 29, 2012), Mali (August 23, 2012), Niger (January 16, 2012) and Benin (August 28, 2012). The 2014 restructuring had triggered this policy to formally comply with safeguards.

33. Revision of the triggers for Phase 2 of Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management (WRDSEM)-APL1. At the time of the 2014 restructuring, significant progress was made to facilitate the regional coordination. The water charter was in implementation after its effectiveness in July 2010, three triggers out of four were achieved, and the Kandadji program in Niger had progressed more rapidly than expected. Therefore, advancing the beginning of WRDSEM-APL2A, which was related to IDA contributions to the Kandadji Program in Niger. The achieved triggers are as follows: (a) the finalization of the water charter on Niger Basin (achieved), (b) the adoption of the Niger Basin Regional Environment code (achieved), and (c) the creation of PWC6 (achieved).

5 The project design did not did not allocate appropriate time for these studies according to NBA. 6 PWC is now the Permanent Water Technical Committee according to the Water Charter.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change

34. Change in the PDO. The rationale for the revision of the PDO was to respond to the need to reduce the scope of the project to ensure a good link between the project target indicators, achievements, and activities. The Results Framework was revised and some targets were changed. Despite these changes, the impact on the original theory of change was negligible. The regional coordination outcome is the same with the original project; and the two outcomes ‘enhance regional development of water resources in the Niger Basin’ and ‘enhance sustainability of water resources in the Niger Basin’ of the original project were simplified to ‘improve water resources management in the Niger River Basin’.

35. Change in triggers. The rational for adjusting the triggers as part of the 2014 restructuring was to ensure they are relevant to the overall program. For WRDSEM-APL2 only the three triggers that were achieved were relevant. The remaining institutional trigger will be essential when the three dams (Kandadji - Niger, Taoussa - Mali, and Fomi - Guinea) are operational. The technical trigger on the three units 5, 6, and 12 is not relevant. This change did not affect the theory of change.

36. Pest management. The rational for triggering the pest management as part of the 2014 restructuring was to comply with the safeguard policy. This change did not affect the theory of change.

37. Extension of the implementation period. The rationale for this closing date extension was to allow appropriate time to effectively deliver the planned activities and achieve the project objectives. The period extension did affect the theory of change.

II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs

Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating Rating: High

38. The development objective of the WRDSEM Project at closing was “to enhance regional coordination and Improve water resources management in the Niger River Basin” . As discussed earlier, the enhance regional development of water resources in the Niger Basin’ and ‘enhance sustainability of water resources in the Niger Basin’ of the original project were simplified to ‘improve water resources management in the Niger River Basin’.

39. The original and revised PDO is fully consistent with the World Bank’s current7 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS)/Country Partnership Framework (CPF) with each of the five countries (CPS [2013–2017] - Benin; CPS [2014–2017] - Guinea; CPF [2016–2017] – Mali; CPS [2013–2016] - Niger; and CPS [2014–2017] - Nigeria. This relevance of the PDO is highlighted through the contribution of the project to the respective following areas: (a) Benin CPS pillar 1: Increasing Sustainable Growth; (b) Guinea CPS strategic area of engagement 2: Stimulate growth and economic diversification; (c) Mali CPF area of focus 2: Create Economic Opportunities; (d) Niger CPS pillars 1 and 2: Promoting resilient growth and reducing

7 ‘Current’ is referring to the World Bank strategy at the time of project closure.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

vulnerability; and (e) Nigeria CPS first strategic cluster: Federally led structural reforms for growth and jobs.

40. The PDOs are also in compliance with the objectives and pillars of the Niger Basin’s SDAP, in that all planned outputs of the project components are contributing to this SDAP.

41. Benin. The Government of Benin had set (a) acceleration of economic growth and (b) development of infrastructure as two important pillars out of five pillars of its Growth Strategy for Poverty Reduction.8 The World Bank CPS contributes to these two pillars through its pillar 1 which intended to ‘Improve Natural Resource Management’ among other actions. The project component implemented in Benin is contributing to this objective. Considering this alignment, the PDO relevance rating is considered High.

42. Guinea. In Guinea, the WRDSEM Project’s Components 2 and 3 are contributing to Guinea’s development agenda Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper 3 (PRSP3) which planned to foster inclusive and sustainable growth. These two components of the project are in compliance with the World Bank CPS through its strategic area of engagement 2, which intends to improve the electricity sector and agricultural productivity. Consequently, the PDO relevance rating is considered High.

43. Mali. The Government of Mali has developed its Strategic Framework for Growth and Poverty Reduction (CSCRP9 2012–2017). However, following the political and security crisis of 2012–2013, the transition government, in place between April 2012 and September 2013, was replaced by the newly elected government in August 2013. Afterwards, the CSCRP was supplemented by the Plan for the Sustainable Recovery of Mali (2013–2014) and the Government Action Plan (PAG) (2013–2018). These two documents are intended to consider the new challenges that emerged during the multidimensional crisis affecting Mali. This PAG is structured around six priority areas, two of which are (a) construction of an emerging economy, and (b) implementation of an active social development policy. These two focus areas are in alignment with the WRDSEM Project. The Mali CPF, in its area of focus 2, has the objective to improve productive capacity and marked integration of farmers and pastoralist. The PDOs are still relevant for both the CPF and the PAG, so the relevance rating of the project PDO is High.

44. Niger. The development of regional infrastructure and sustainable management of degraded ecosystems are part of the Niger CPS and Niger Government Social and Economic Development Strategy (PDES10). The CPS, in its pillar 1, had promoted resilient growth through increased agricultural productivity. This was done by using underground water or building water infrastructure on international waterways (Niger River and its tributary rivers). On the other hand, pillar 2 of the World Bank CPS had contributed to reducing vulnerability through increased adoption of climate resilient actions including watershed restoration, among others. The PDO remains relevant to both the CPS in Niger and the country PDES. The relevance rating of the project PDO is considered High.

45. Nigeria. Nigeria’s Government Vision 2020 intends to optimize the country’s human and natural resource potential to achieve rapid economic growth among others action. The World Bank CPS contributed to part of this vision through its first strategic cluster which intends to federally lead structural

8 Stratégie de Croissance pour la Réduction de la Pauvreté 9 CSCRP: Cadre Stratégique pour la Croissance et la Réduction de la Pauvreté 10 PDES: Plan de Développement Economique et Social

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

reforms for growth and jobs. In this first cluster, the CPS actions included (but are not limited to) (a) increasing installed power generation and transmission capacity and improving the efficiency and governance of electricity delivery and (b) boosting agricultural productivity, improving farmers’ links with agro-processors, and scaling up Nigeria’s resilience to current and future climate variability. These two actions are in alignment with the PDO, mainly with the implemented actions in Component 2. The relevance rating of the project PDO is High.

B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY)

Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome Rating: Before restructuring - Substantial; After restructuring - Substantial

Achievement of the original Evidences of the level of achievement and of the level of directness of Rating PDOs/ demonstrated connections between project activities and outcomes/PDO outcomes Enhance The objectives of enhanced regional coordination for water resources Substantial regional management were to be achieved through the capacity reinforcement/building coordination activities. These activities included: (a) equipment and training to modernize the for water implementation capacity as well as specific trainings meant to enhance inter- resources ministerial collaboration; (b) the establishment of an overall M&E system; (c) the management assistance to establish and finance the yearly convening of the Regional Steering in the Niger Committee, a platform during which planning and performance assessment were Basin done and discussions held with donors to synergize existing programs or to help formulate and speed up the implementation of other investments of the SDAP of the project than those directly financed by the project; (d) development and/or endorsement of legal instruments for integrated water resources management at regional level; and (e) the support of specific training for technical experts involved in the use of modeling tools for water allocation. The objectives of these activities were to (a) enhance regional coordination for the implementation of planned activities according to the SDAP and (b) empowering the NBA with legal instruments and an institutional mechanism for water resources management. Therefore, indicators defined in the Results Framework at intermediate results and PDO outcome levels are all contributing to the achievement of the PDO outcomes. a. Enhance regional coordination for implementation of planned activities according to the SDAP The abovementioned capacity reinforcement/building in planning, M&E, technical trainings, and equipment had enabled the shared vision among basin actors and implementation of basin water resources development according to the basin-wide action plan (SDAP). At the end of the project, 100 percent of activities implemented under the project are aligned with the Niger Basin SDAP. This alignment contributed at a percentage of 59 percent to the activity areas of the SDAP as there are 34 activity areas planned in the SDAP, and all activities implemented under the project, fell in alignment with 20 out of 34 activity areas of the SDAP. Aligning countries’ activities with the basin-wide action plan coordinated by the NBA, denotes the

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Achievement of the original Evidences of the level of achievement and of the level of directness of Rating PDOs/ demonstrated connections between project activities and outcomes/PDO outcomes strengthening of regional coordination in relation to the sustainable management of resources in the Niger Basin. The monthly and/or annual water resources information database is now publicly available on the NBA’s website. The availability of water resources data to inform riparian countries on the River Basin and water resources status, will call for coordinated actions, experience sharing and coordinated management of critical situations (flooding, drought, and so on). These two indicators of the Results Framework are fully achieved under the project. b. Empowering NBA with legal instruments and institutional mechanism for water resources management Four legal instruments were defined to be achieved in the Results Framework. These instruments are (i) the adoption of the regional environment code; (ii) the Agreement on Common Guarantee of Infrastructure; (iii) the Agreement on Joint Management of Infrastructure; and (iv) the Agreement on Dispute Resolution and Arbitrage. In addition to these four instruments, the Results Framework had set the number of meetings held by the PWC annually as another indicator measuring the achievement of regional coordination. Working in a complementary manner with other donors (French Development Agency [Agence française de développement, AFD], Canadian International Development Agency [CIDA], European Union [EU], and German Agency for International Cooperation [Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, GIZ]) under the leadership of the NBA, the project supported several activities to clarify and operationalize the legal context that stems from the basin-wide water charter. It financed key advocacy missions of the NBA to speed up ratification in the countries. The water charter was adopted by riparian countries since November 2009 and became effective in July 2010, following its ratification by all nine countries. This charter provides a very strong foundation to build upon, notably to develop subsequent legal instruments: on mechanisms to protect the environment, for common guaranty of infrastructure, coordinated management of infrastructure of common interest, and for dispute resolution and arbitrage. As a result, five annexes to the charter were planned. These annexes are as follow: (i) Annex 1 - “Regional environment code”: This annex corresponds to the first legal instrument mentioned above. The project supported the studies on the regional environment code. These studies led to the drafting of the regional environmental code which was endorsed by riparian countries and adopted on October 1st, 2011; the target is fully achieved. (ii) Annex 2 - “Rules governing the coordinated management and optimization of regional water infrastructure”: This annex matches with the third and fourth legal instruments indicated above as part of the Results Framework. The studies to prepare annex 2 of the charter were jointly financed by the World Bank project and the EU. These studies intended to clarify the legal instruments for joint management of water infrastructure, dispute resolution

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Achievement of the original Evidences of the level of achievement and of the level of directness of Rating PDOs/ demonstrated connections between project activities and outcomes/PDO outcomes and arbitrage enforcement. These studies included the preparation of a legal text as well as the development of a computerized model meant to inform water release envelopes within the legal boundaries set in the annex 2, itself a legally binding document. When reviewed by countries, the model was found to have several shortcomings and notably it could not accommodate flexibility in the features of the (future) dams whereas these features (volume, height, and so on) are not fully confirmed; the legal text was found to be incomplete and hard to operationalize. As the consultant was unable to finalize the agreed documents that accommodate the riparian countries, it was agreed to end the contract before the 2014 restructuring. With the 2014 restructuring, due to the unavailability of sufficient funds in the project, it was agreed to finalize the work done through the Cooperation International Water in Africa (CIWA) supported project (ongoing P149714). So, the two legal instruments (“Agreement on Joint Management of Infrastructure” and “Agreement on Dispute Resolution and Arbitrage”) will be achieved under the other project, which is also financed by the World Bank. Importantly, even though the model was not approved since it could not fully accommodate the objective of coordinated management of the dams, it is noted that the objective was politically endorsed by the countries. Given this and the fact that the study was done and only needs to be supplemented justify that we can fairly consider that the target was Partially achieved. Considering that the continuation of the studies will be done under an active project under the same project management and coordination unit (PMCU), knowing that NBA and riparian countries are willing to have the effectiveness of all legal instruments governing the water charter, the annex 2 of the charter that captures the two legal instruments is likely to be achieved. (iii) Annex 3 - “Notification of planned measures”: This annex covers the issues related to planned infrastructure or activities that may have significant negative impacts on at least one country. It makes it mandatory to riparian countries to notify planned similar interventions. The elaboration of this annex 3 was supported by CIDA. It was adopted since December 17, 2014. (iv) Annex 4 - “Costs and benefits sharing”: It regulates cost and benefits sharing of common infrastructure and common interests. The studies related to this annex were financed through the GIZ. The annex 4 of the water charter was adopted and became effective as of March 31, 2017. The legal instrument covered by annex 4 is not among those highlighted in the project Results Framework. However, it complements annex 5, that intends to address the question of the ‘Agreement on Common Guarantee of Infrastructure’. (v) Annex 5 - “Status of common facilities of common interests”: The AFD had financed a comprehensive study on the “asset management and ownership responsibility for the projects and programs in the Niger River Basin.” This study was adopted by the basin head of states summit held on September 16th, 2010 in Abuja. This study contributes to annex 5 which captures the ‘Agreement on Common Guarantee of Infrastructure’. Despite this study with

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Achievement of the original Evidences of the level of achievement and of the level of directness of Rating PDOs/ demonstrated connections between project activities and outcomes/PDO outcomes AFD support, the indicator was not achieved. Nevertheless, after the delivery of annex 4 which may complement annex 5 as mentioned in the previous paragraph, it is now planned that annex 5 will be also supported by the GIZ. Knowing the studies will be now financed by the GIZ in 2019, the likelihood of the achievement of this indicator seems strong. A text establishing a PWC based on the one in force in the Senegal River Basin was drafted in 2013. This commission is supposed to make strategic water allocation decisions on an annual basis. It would be the one deciding on the water allocation resulting from the model associated with the aforementioned annex 2. It never met because, unlike the Senegal basin where the PWC is dealing with an existing transboundary dam, there is none yet in the Niger basin. It is therefore logical that no such meeting took place even though on average two meetings were expected annually. Taking into consideration the two dimensions of the regional coordination mentioned in previous sections. The dimension on ‘implementation of planned activities according to the SDAP’ is fully achieved and the dimension on ‘legal instruments’ is partially achieved but with strong likelihood to be achieved, the rating of the outcome for regional coordination substantial. Enhance The achievement of enhanced regional development of water resources in the Substantial regional Niger Basin was expected to be done through the implementation of energy development production/securing activities and feasibility studies of dam construction and of water rehabilitation of small-scale irrigation and small dams activities. These activities resources in led to an increase in energy production, irrigated areas, and availability of water the Niger for various purposes. Basin The project contributed to the restoration of 340 MW of hydropower generation capacity per the target. (340 MW was restored from Kainji hydropower plant rehabilitation works and securing the production of existing 578 MW for Jebba). About 2,125 hectares of area were rehabilitated or provided with irrigation services in Mopti region (Mali - 5 ha), Tillabéri region (Niger - 620 ha), and Karimama and Malanville Districts (Benin - 1,500 ha), more than double the original target of 1,000 ha. There were four dam sites with completed feasibility studies, with three out of four studies completed under the project and the fourth site done by another donor (one in Nigeria with a hydropower master plan in Niger basin located in Nigeria, one in Niger with Kandadji dam, and one in Guinea with Fomi dam). The targeted feasibility study of the dam site in Nigeria has been achieved, though the Feasibility Study of Zungheru Hydropower Plant according to the original project Results Framework was replaced by the Screening for Hydropower Plant Sites in Niger Basin in Nigeria. Indeed, at the project effectiveness date, the Feasibility Study of Zungheru Hydropower Plant was already committed to another donor. In Mali, the studies planned for Taoussa were done by other donors. Six out of 14 small dams were rehabilitated. After the completion of feasibility studies, it was realized that the allocated budget was not enough to finance the fourteen dams. With the 2014 restructuring, the target of 14 was reduced to 8 (one in Niger and seven in Benin). The one rehabilitated in

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Achievement of the original Evidences of the level of achievement and of the level of directness of Rating PDOs/ demonstrated connections between project activities and outcomes/PDO outcomes Niger collapsed before its technical acceptance. The Government of Niger had committed to rebuild the collapsed dam. In Benin, while the bidding documents reflected the rehabilitation of 7 dams, the contract issued could only rehabilitate 5 dams with the available budget. Enhance the The objectives of enhanced sustainable management of water resources were to High sustainability be achieved through activities of watershed restoration, agroforestry and income of water generation. These complementary activities had contributed to the adoption of resources the sustainable land management practices and ecosystems improvements. management Percentage of watershed areas in Faranah region (Guinea), Mopti region (Mali), in the Niger Dosso and Tillabéri regions (Niger), and Alibori region (Benin) using agroforestry, Basin river bank stabilization, and silt and sedimentation control. The project target was 2,250 ha while the achievement was 10,620 ha, representing more than four times the end-project target. The target for this indicator is very low compared to total planned area which was 11,260 ha. This was fully achieved and even exceeded. In Benin, 2,360 ha were planned and only 1,115 ha were realized. In Guinea, 900 ha planned and 950 ha realized under the project. In Mali, 500 ha planned, 590 ha realized under the project, and more than 700 additional hectares realized by the population. Additional evidence. This includes income-generating activities (agroforestry and fish production) in involved countries. In Mali, the pasture land restoration was expanded by the beneficiaries themselves without project money, from 590 ha in 2014 (realized by the project) to more than 1,000 ha in 2017. Anecdotal facts from the NFS and NIA stated that this activity has improved fish production as a result of the ecosystems’ restoration along the river in the interior Niger River delta where the activity was implemented. The activity is now being continued by fishermen in place of the population in charge of livestock. Around 2,500 active persons, mainly fishermen, are continuing the extension of bourgou production. In Benin, beehives for honey production are being expanded by beneficiaries who had been exposed to the approach before the project was implemented. So, the project has contributed to this, but all the benefits are not attributable to only the project financed by the World Bank. In Niger, the fish production activity is really expanding and the beneficiaries are having close control of this. The Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) team had witnessed the interest with which the beneficiaries are taking care of desilting ponds or lakes to continue fishery and other activities around them. Justification of Combining these three ratings the overall PDO efficacy rating is SUBSTANTIAL. Substantial the original PDO

Achievement of Evidences of the level of achievement and of the level of directness of the revised Rating demonstrated connections between project activities and outcomes/PDO PDOs/outcomes Enhance regional Since the PDO remained the same, the same rating is applicable. Substantial

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Achievement of Evidences of the level of achievement and of the level of directness of the revised Rating demonstrated connections between project activities and outcomes/PDO PDOs/outcomes coordination in the Niger Basin Improve water As explained at the point 34. “Change in the PDO”, the outcome ‘improve Substantial resources water resources management in the Niger Basin’ is a simplification of the management in following outcomes: ‘Enhance regional development of water resources in the the Niger Basin Niger Basin’ and ‘Enhance the sustainability of water resources management in the Niger Basin’. Based on this assumption, the objectives of this outcome were expected to be achieved through the implementation of energy production/securing activities, feasibility studies of dam construction, rehabilitation of small-scale irrigation and small dams activities, and through activities of watershed restoration, agroforestry, and income generation. These activities intend to support the achievement of a sustainable increase in the overall productivity of water resources to contribute to the improvement of the living conditions of the involved countries’ population and the environment by ecosystem regeneration. In addition to the indicators discussed under the PDO aspects of ‘enhance regional development of water resources’ and ‘enhance the sustainability of water resources management in the Niger River Basin’, the following additional indicators, that is, (a) land area where sustainable land management practices were adopted as a result of project, (b) area afforested for ecological or income-generation practices and (c) irrigation schemes rehabilitated. In addition, the mandatory corporate indicator on the number of direct beneficiaries (of which female) was added. About 10,620 of land area was brought under sustainable land management practices against a target of 13,439 ha. This indicator was substantially achieved at 79 percent of the end target (Benin - 1,815 ha of which 1,115 ha was improved; Niger - 7,500 ha of which 7,965 ha delivered; Mali - 2,866 ha planned and 590 ha improved; and Guinea - 950 ha planned and 950 ha delivered). About 2,655 ha was afforested for ecological or income-generation purposes, exceeding the project target of 2,205 ha. However, 2,125 ha of irrigation schemes were rehabilitated falling short of the target of 5,005 ha. The project was unable to realize the irrigation schemes in Djambakourou (more than 2,000 ha) as the population had refused this option at the end of the social evaluation of the project, so the non-achievement of this target was not due to the project counter performance. The restructuring of December 2014 added a new PDO indicator to reflect the number of beneficiaries. However, the proposed target was 55 million people mainly based on the assumption that electricity generation from dam rehabilitation and refurbishment would benefit to all the population living in the River Basin in Nigeria. Basically, the simplistic assumption theorizes that any KWH produced into the grid would automatically generate as many beneficiaries as inhabitant in the River Basin. With hindsight, the ICR proposes a more realistic and rigorous approach to estimate the number of beneficiaries from electricity generation based on a minimum energy consumption of 250 Kwh per capita per year recommended by the

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Achievement of Evidences of the level of achievement and of the level of directness of the revised Rating demonstrated connections between project activities and outcomes/PDO PDOs/outcomes International Energy Agency. Considering that, the project enabled the production of incremental electric energy estimated at 796, 977 MWh per year, the number of beneficiaries are objectively estimated at 3,187,908 people. In Benin, 1,500 people benefitted from irrigation while 2,335 benefitted from other income-generating activities. The total number of direct beneficiaries is estimated at 3,835 people of which 2,335 are females. In Guinea, the number of beneficiaries is estimated at 1,600 people half of whom are females. In Mali, 200 people benefitted from river bank protection training, 1,700 women from Burgu production, and 7,000 people from training sessions. The total number of beneficiaries is estimated at 8,900 people of which 1,700 are females. In Niger, the project benefited at least 8,875 people of which 4,438 are females. In total, the project beneficiaries are estimated at 3,211,118 people of which 1,580,912 females. Using this more rigorous approach still provides a strong economic rate of return contributing to the rating. Justification of The two outcomes rating are both Substantial so the overall PDO efficacy the revised PDO rating is SUBSTANTIAL. SUBSTANTIAL

C. EFFICIENCY

Assessment of Efficiency and Rating Rating: Modest

46. Economic analysis. The economic analysis of the project is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the different subprojects implemented in the five project countries. The overall economic analysis accounts for 100 percent of the project expenditure. The analysis captures the combined benefits and costs from hydropower generation, irrigation, fisheries, fodder production, reforestation, and agroforestry. The analysis covers 30 years, including the implementation period and a 25-year stream of benefits and costs. The analysis follows the same methodology as the PAD for the hydropower generation subproject. However, for the other subprojects the PAD does not provide sufficient details on the approach used to be comparable with the ICR analysis.

47. At 5 percent and 8 percent discount rates, the analysis shows that the project had positive net present values (NPVs) for subprojects in all the countries except for the irrigation subproject in Guinea. Apart from the lowland development subproject in Guinea, all the subprojects analyzed exhibited an economic internal rate of return (EIRR) higher than 5 percent, ranging from 11.3 percent to 75.5 percent. However, there is significant variability from one subproject to another. Fisheries, fodder production, and income-generating activities are, generally, the most economically performing subprojects. Irrigation infrastructure rehabilitation in Niger was the less economic activity mainly because of the higher-than- expected cost associated with this subproject. The irrigation subproject in Benin exhibited high performance explained by higher number of areas developed than initially planned and the choice to grow high-value vegetables. The lowland irrigation subproject in Guinea suffered from two major factors: (a) the high per area investment cost of the irrigation infrastructure and (b) the moderate increase in rice

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

yield probably due to a lack of appropriate water management knowledge. The overall EIRR of the project is estimated at 27.6 percent (lower than the PAD estimate of 51 percent) and the NPV, at a 5 percent discount rate, is US$914,826,012 and, at an 8 percent discount rate, US$541,958,802 (tables 4.1 and 4.16 at annex 4). Further, sensitivity analysis shows that the project remains economically viable even with a combined 20 percent increase in the costs and a 20 percent reduction in benefits with an EIRR of 21 percent (annex 4).

48. Administrative efficiency. In terms of administrative efficiency, the project suffered from significant delays due to slow progression of activities and the Ebola outbreak in Guinea. The reasons for delays are further discussed in the section on ‘Key Factors affecting Implementation’. Through two formal restructurings, the project closing date was extended by about 5 years (59 months). Efficiency is rated as Modest pre-and post-restructuring based on the mixed results in terms of EIRR among the activities of the different subprojects as well as delays in implementation.

D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING Rating: Moderately Satisfactory

49. The relevance of original and revised development objectives of the project is rated High. The achievement of the PDOs at completion is rated Substantial both pre- and post-restructuring. Efficiency is rated Modest. Consequently, the overall outcoming rating of the project is Moderately Satisfactory. A split evaluation is conducted below since the PDO was revised. However, since the ratings remained same pre- and post-restructuring, it has no implications when weighted by disbursement percentage and the overall outcome rating remains Moderately Satisfactory.

Rating the Outcome of Operations with Revised Objectives Rating: Moderately Satisfactory

Table 3. Calculation of Weighted Outcome Rating Pre-restructuring Post-restructuring Overall Relevance of Objectives High High — Efficacy Substantial Substantial — Efficiency Modest Modest — Rating Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory — Rating Value 4 4 — Weight 0.7 0.3 — Weighted Value 2.8 1.2 4.0 Final Rating Moderately Satisfactory

E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS

Gender

50. Poverty impacts, gender aspects, and social development. Component 2 did not directly target poverty alleviation, gender equality, or social development in any particular group. The main focus was the quantity and reliability of electricity supplied to the grid. However, it is expected that the project will ease the hardships of several households by alleviating power shortage. Even those households without

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

electricity may benefit from the general increase in economic activity brought about by a reduction in the destructive load shedding and power failures that currently beset the region. Studies have been done on the economic effects of unserved electricity.11 The value of unserved electricity varies greatly depending on customer category, sector, time of year, duration of outages, and so on, and on the methodology of calculation, but it is many times the cost of production. Any relief from power interruptions alleviates economic damage, financial loss, and social impacts.

51. Component 3 implemented activities (small water infrastructure and ecosystems management) to support communities through income generation, and some indications were provided in the countries’ ICRs. In Niger, 519 persons benefited from capacity reinforcement in fish production, including 149 women. In Benin, 1,308 persons benefited from small irrigation schemes and 176 communities, among which 33 percent were women who benefited from other income-generating activities. In Mali, small-scale irrigation benefited 1,700 women. In Guinea, 26,845 persons benefited of which 13,790 were women.

Institutional Strengthening

52. Institutional change/strengthening. The regional context of the Niger Basin WRDSEM Program reinforced the institutional mindset in relation to:

(a) Taking a basin perspective, rather than a country perspective, in the optimal and sustainable management of a river system; (b) Taking a regional perspective in developing electricity infrastructure to capture economies of scale, manage reserve margin and power shortages more effectively, and deliver system ancillary services more efficiently; (c) Underlining the long-term benefits of cross-border cooperation through the international context of the program, although the activities in Jebba and Kainji were located wholly within the Nigerian territory; the links between the institutions of the riparian countries were strengthened by the collaboration of the Niger Basin WRDSEM Program; (d) Significantly improving the capacity of Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN)-Project Management Unit (PMU) to manage large and complex projects.

53. The project coordination and procurement staff benefited from the formal training components and, more particularly, the workplace experience of administering a wide variety of contract types (works, goods, and consultants) and procurement methods (International Competitive Bidding, National Competitive Bidding, Shopping, Direct Contracting, Quality- and Cost-Based Selection, and Individual Consultants).

11 Cost of unserved energy – October 2015 – Ulrich Minnaar; Addressing the electricity access GAP – June 2010 – World Bank; Power outages and economic growth in Africa No7/2012 – Thomas Barnebeck Andersen and Carl-Johan Dalgaard; State of electricity access report – 2017 – World Bank.

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Mobilizing Private Sector Financing

54. Other unintended outcomes and impacts, including mobilizing private sector financing. The award of a concession to Mainstream Energy Solutions (MESL) to operate and maintain the Kainji and Jebba hydropower plants for 15 years (with right of renewal for a further 15 years) involves an unintended shift in the nature of the benefits accruing to the country from the Kainji and Jebba investments.

(a) The financial benefits of the sale of electricity from the refurbished plants were accrued by the concessionaire rather than the state-owned utility (b) Compensating for this loss, the total cost of refurbishment works in Kainji and Jebba were reflected in the proposals received from bidders for the concession. This would have translated into increased benefits received by the Government as follows: (i) Higher block concession payments payable under the Concession Agreement; (ii) Increased revenue stream for the Government’s 10 percent share of electricity payments; (iii) Higher royalty payments (as more water will be turbined at Kainji); and (iv) Increased receipts from MESL’s company tax payments.

55. Carbon credit. As a parallel project to the rehabilitation of Kainji dam and hydropower plant, the IBRD, as trustee of the Umbrella Carbon Facility Tranche 2, signed an Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement (ERPA) with Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) PLC in December 2011 for the purchase of 2,447,650 Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) to be generated by the Kainji hydropower rehabilitation project between the commissioning date and the end of 2018 (Kainji Hydro Power Plants Rehabilitation [P111179]). Due to delays in commissioning, no CERs were certified and issued under the above-named ERPA by the project. Following the privatization process of the Nigerian energy sector, PHCN PLC ceased its activities in late 2013. The Kainji project was acquired by MESL. As a result of the change in ownership, the trustee and MESL agreed and signed an ERPA amendment in June 2017 for the purchase of a reduced volume of CERs (1,446,411) between the actual project commissioning date (August 2015) and the end of 2018. A pre-verification site visit is scheduled to take place in April 2018 to assess the project’s compliance with the requirements under the Clean Development Mechanism of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A verification is expected to take place in late summer 2018. This parallel project is scheduled to close by December 31, 2019.

III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION

56. Soundness of background analysis. The project design built on multiple analytical works across the Niger River Basin that identified relevant and strategic priorities and demonstrated effective benefits of multi-country and multipurpose activities. It also built on lessons learned from regional-, national-, and local-level experiences, ranging from integrated Multipurpose Water Resources Development (MWRD) to ecosystems management and income-generating activities associated with environmental protection. The World Bank’s long-term involvement in the Niger River Basin has been instrumental in promoting regional and coordinated approaches in the development of natural resources in the river basin that involves nine countries. The Kainji and Jebba hydropower plants were in poor condition and offered a cost-effective

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vehicle for furthering many of the development priorities of the Government and the World Bank. The design of Subcomponents 2-a and 2-b was based on advice received from operating staff on the most urgent needs of the two facilities and reflects the lessons learned from similar hydropower refurbishment projects and the recommendations of previous studies.

57. Project design. The project design was sound and built on the following considerations: (a) coherence of approach and sustainability at national and regional levels; (b) institution strengthening and capacity building, (c) infrastructure development and climate variability, (d) regional common goals and national constituencies, and (e) lessons and experiences from other regional infrastructure APL programs. However, safeguards consideration to comply with World Bank operational policy was not estimated in the project cost at appraisal. This led to some adjustments in the scope of work to consider the activities related to safeguard compliance. The design of the project built on lessons learnt from Global Environmental Facility operations which did the groundworks for the institutional strengthening of the NBA. The design also incorporates the lessons learned from decades of World Bank engagement in river basins development in Africa and regional projects such as the Niger Basin Reversing Land and Water Degradation Project (P070256), Senegal River Basin Multipurpose Water Resources Development (P093826), Hydropower Rehabilitation in Zambia (P035076), and Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilitation in China (P056216). The institutional setup was designed to ensure ownership and accountability of institutions/community-based organizations at regional, national, and communities levels. Additionally, capacity-building/-strengthening activities were aimed at improving capacities of implementing agencies which lacked appropriate experience to implement complex projects like the WRDSEM Project. All of Component 1 is dedicated to this activity at both regional and country levels.

58. Coherence of approach and sustainability. The project institutional arrangements opted for an overall project coordination by a unit anchored at the regional level through the NBA. At country level, two Government institutions ensured the coherence and the sustainability of actions - the NFS and the NIA. The project has been designed such that regional and national activities are developed consistently and complement each other in terms of generated benefits.

59. Regional common goal and national constituencies. The shared vision supported by the SDAP constitutes a robust framework for optimal cooperation and coordinated water resources management. Activities planned in the project combined (a) institutions strengthening and capacity building at all levels, (b) ecosystems management, and (c) water infrastructure development, leverage to consolidate the national agenda, and promotion of regional common goals. For example, afforestation of upper sources in Guinea benefited infrastructure in Mali. Similarly, erosion control and silt reduction in Mali and Niger positively affected existing water infrastructure in Nigeria. Conversely the planned injection of 340 MW of electricity in the grid from the rehabilitation works in Kainji is benefiting Niger and Benin.

60. Lessons and experiences from other regional infrastructure APL programs. The project team has preferred using the APL instrument which ensures long-term commitment and sustainability in water resources development and ecosystems management in the Niger River Basin. The project team has learned from the design of other APL programs with a regional agenda such as the West Africa Power Pool and the Senegal River Basin MWRD Program. The main takeaways from previous APL programs that have influenced the project are as follows:

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(a) The design of APL programs proving regional umbrella for multifaceted, multicountry infrastructure projects should be focusing on achieving regional goals/objectives assigned to regional institutions. In addition, a subsidiary principle should be applied for activities of national interest by using the most effective institutions of each beneficiary member state covered by the program. These principles applied well for the Niger River Basin WRDSEM Project.

(b) The generation of tangible benefits for the stakeholders is important to maintain the full ownership and for consensus building. The project has learned from the Loess Watershed Rehabilitation Project in China. The activities related to rehabilitation and diversification of small dams, rehabilitation and extension of small irrigation schemes, support to the development of traditional fisheries, and watershed restoration and agroforestry are inspired from these lessons and experiences.

61. Adequacy of Government commitment. None of the governments of the five participating countries has contributed counterpart funding for the first phase of the Niger Basin WRDSEM Program. Nonetheless, the outcomes of project components are adding value and improved systems benefits, both in critical need in the five countries. The commitment of the beneficiary countries to the program is evident in the resources applied to the administration and monitoring of the execution of the works. However, some mistakes were observed in Niger with dam failure and in Guinea where the dike collapsed in Kissidougou (see lesson learned section).

Risks and Mitigation Measures

62. At appraisal, the overall risk of the Niger Basin WRDSEM Project was rated as High. These high risks were mainly associated to issues related to additional costs that might have occurred during the partial rehabilitation of 40-year-old Kainji hydropower plant. The other risks are related to the fact that a multisectoral and multi-level scope led to a project design that was both ambitious and complex in a context of weak governance at regional and country levels institutions. The design of implementation arrangements was adapted to the different mandates of organizations and to allow the project to work on regional, national, and local levels dependent on the ultimate beneficiary. Institutional strengthening and capacity-building activities were implemented at all levels to allow involvement and ownership of actors at national and communities levels on sound regional agenda. In addition, specific safeguards and fiduciary trainings have been instrumental in supporting involved implementation teams at regional and national levels to achieve the expected outputs.

B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION

63. Governments commitments and implementation arrangements. In a complex project like the WRDSEM Project, of safeguard category A, it is expected to have safeguard issues hindering implementation. However, from 2008 to 2013, no critical safeguard issue was raised in Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs), and from 2013 to June 2016, the safeguard compliance rating was Satisfactory in all ISRs. However, the midterm review aide memoire raised the issue of delays in preparing the environmental and social management plan (ESMP) for works planned for Kainji and Jebba. The environmental and social risks of Fomi dam studies were rated Moderate in 2016 and in 2017 ISRs. The safeguard trainings facilitated by the World Bank supervision team and the project regional management

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and coordination unit to countries’ implementation agencies had contributed to tackle safeguard compliance problems before and during investment works implementation. The project was restructured twice to consider the low pace implementation speed related to fiduciary issues (procurement and financial management). The first challenge was the first withdrawal and low quality of the project financial report. Then at several times, the issue of delays in procurement was experienced by beneficiary countries, mainly Nigeria in Kainji and Jebba hydropower plant contracts, where about 56 percent of the project money was allocated. At regional coordination level, the project team had suffered from the absence of an internal auditor and the lack of implementation of recommendations from external audits and the World Bank Financial Management Specialist during supervision mission. In two beneficiary countries, (Benin and Guinea) the poor quality of terms of reference has caused delays in procurement agenda.

64. Project implementation. The project was initially designed to be implemented in five years, but it took 10 years to close the project. The project was extended twice to address implementation challenges, mainly those related to procurement issues, financial management, and safeguards compliance. In addition to these challenges, some external factors such as coup d’états and Ebola outbreak in Guinea also had an impact on the implementation time of the project. The project was managed by five successive task team leaders (TTLs) over its implementation period (representing an average of two years for every TTL). This has also adversely affected the project implementation. Further, the delays had negative bearings on the economic efficiency of the project.

65. Internal reasons of delays. The project had faced issues that have delayed its implementation period. The first problem was about procurement that caused important delays in the project implementation mainly on Nigeria power plants rehabilitation works (Kainji and Jebba) which represent more than 70 percent of project financing. The first procurement process on the rehabilitation works of units 5, 6, and 12 of Kainji hydropower was unsuccessful. The civil works contract for Kainji was signed only in June 2011 (after more than two years of project implementation). In addition, the lack of an ESMP, at the early stage of the Nigeria part of the project, had also contributed to the project delays. The procurement management coupled with safeguards compliance have also caused some delays in Component 3 of the project. The project team had alerted the NBA and countries through aide memoires and management letters on these issues. Monthly videoconferencing (VC) and ad hoc training were organized by the project team for close follow-up and capacity reinforcement to improve implementation conditions. The two project restructurings mentioned above were done to allow the necessary adjustments and full implementation of agreed activities.

66. External reasons for delays. Three countries out of five had experienced a coup d’état (Guinea in December 2008, Niger in February 2010, and Mali in 2012). In addition to these coups, Guinea experienced the outbreak of Ebola in early 2014. It was only in end December 2015 that the country was declared Ebola free. Both the coup and Ebola has significantly delayed the project implementation. During the two events in Guinea, the supervision of the project was done only by VC. The five countries were affected differently by the shortcomings mentioned above. The end project date in Niger was December 2015 (almost 8 years of implementation) and in Benin, Mali, and Nigeria the project ended in June 2016 (8.5 years of implementation). Guinea with the coup and Ebola, implemented the project in 10 years. It can be easily seen that external factors had influenced Guinea more than the other two countries (Niger and Mali), leading to more time to implement the project in Guinea

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67. World Bank performance. Since the effectiveness of the project in November 2007 to December 2017, the World Bank team has closely provided implementation support to the project. At least 20 supervision missions and video conferences were organized to support the project implementation. An average of two supervision missions were conducted every year. This close follow up helped readjust, as appropriate, the extension of the project, the management of safeguard compliance upstream, and during the implementation of the works. For example, at appraisal it had been planned to develop 250 ha irrigation schemes in Benin, on the basis of the agricultural development option.12 The supervision team changed this option and proposed small irrigation schemes with small pumps for every beneficiary household. This approach increased the area up to 1,500 ha (six times the original area). The close supervision also facilitated the complex rehabilitation works on Kainji hydropower plant. In Mali, the non- acceptance of the population to have more than 2,000 ha irrigation by controlled submersion in Djambacourou had led to the use of funds for additional activities for fish production.

IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) Overall rating of M&E: Modest

M&E Design

68. Quality of M&E design. The M&E design is described in the PAD. The M&E system considers the multisectoral regional nature of the Niger Basin WRDSEM Program by specifying a system that is decentralized to facilitate data collection in each of the five participating countries. Under the institutional arrangements, the NBA’s observatory has overall responsibility for M&E and reports to the regional Steering Committee and to the NBA’s Council of Ministers. The Results Framework indicators (PDO and intermediate outcome indicators) are well aligned with the PDO as shown in the theory of change.

69. The M&E system operates at two levels of planning and implementation: regional level (NBA) and country level (NFS and NIAs). The main NIA coordinates the actions of many other subnational implementers. In terms of the monitoring and reporting structure, the subnational implementers provide monthly and quarterly reports to the NIA. The NIA consolidates these reports and provides quarterly reports to the NFS who will in turn send consolidated quarterly, half-yearly, and yearly reports to the NBA.

70. The M&E data collection system was designed to allow the progress monitoring against the Results Framework to track PDO outcome and intermediate outcome indicators as defined in the PAD and in the subsequent Restructuring Paper of December 2014. Responsibilities for data collection were specified in annex 6 of the PAD. The design of the M&E system was sufficient to assess the achievement of the original PDO and test the links in the results chain.

M&E Implementation

71. Quality of M&E implementation. During the project implementation, the monitoring and reporting structure followed the designed structure, mainly in the beneficiary countries. Data information were provided monthly and quarterly to the respective main NIA from subnational implementers. The NIA

12 At appraisal, the agricultural development option was community-based with large pumping stations and irrigation channels.

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prepared and submitted quarterly reports to the NFS who in turn sent quarterly, half-year, and yearly reports to the NBA regional project coordination unit. It often happened that reports were not sent on due time by involved countries but at least an annual report was sent annually. The data collected allowed the World Bank supervision missions to inform the ISRs. The PMCU at the NBA had played the role assigned to the NBA observatory in M&E.

M&E Utilization

72. Quality of M&E utilization. The M&E system is being used to inform the project regional Steering Committee and NBA management about progress during the annual meetings of the institution. As mentioned in the previous section, it also informed the World Bank ISRs and aide memoires. However, the observatory, which is supposed to play the role of department M&E and report all project activities to the regional Steering Committee and to the NBA’s Council of Ministers, is not taking care of this responsibility. Projects including WRDSEM are not sending their data to the observatory; the NFS yearly reports are sent to the regional project management coordination unit and all projects’ data information are kept at this level. The platform that exists at the observatory is not fed with project information and data collected from riparian countries, while the planned capacity reinforcement activities to the observatory were delivered. This raises the issue of sustainability and future use of these data after the closure of the projects (WRDSEM and other projects managed and coordinated by the NBA).

Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E

73. Shortcomings highlighted in the design, the implementation and utilization are important. The overall rating of M&E is Modest.

B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE

74. Environmental compliance. The project is classified as category A in the Environmental Assessment classification of the World Bank, primarily due to the preparation of studies for regional water infrastructure in Nigeria, Niger, Guinea, and Mali (Zungeru, Kandadji, Fomi, and Taoussa). The subprojects financed by the project are not expected individually to have significant environmental and social impacts; nevertheless, accumulative impacts may be more severe.

75. At appraisal, seven environmental safeguard policies were triggered by the project, including: (a) Environmental assessment (OP/BP 4.01), (b) Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04), (c) Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11), (d) Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12), (e) Forests (OP/BP 4.36), (f) Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37), and (g) Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50). The policy on Pest Management (OP 4.09) was triggered during the 2014 project restructuring. The World Bank April 2007 guidelines on environment, health, and security are also applicable to the project.

76. The PMCU has appointed a safeguards specialist in the core team, and in the respective beneficiary countries, the NFS/NIA has at least one focal person for the safeguard issues. Specific trainings were delivered to implementation agencies and to the PMCU to mainstream safeguard issues before works execution and during their implementation.

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77. OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment). Safeguard activities were planned from the beginning of project activities in 2008. To ensure compliance, the project conducted specific studies and created an action plan in accordance with respective countries and World Bank safeguards policies. For Kainji and Jebba rehabilitation works, environmental and social audits were conducted and an ESMP established for works implementation. Many other environmental studies were conducted for regional water infrastructure at Kandadji (Niger) and Fomi (Guinea).

78. In the case of Component 3, the project has established the Environmental and Social Management Framework and the Resettlement Policy Framework in accordance with respective countries’ safeguard policy frameworks. Environmental and social systems assessments in beneficiary countries were conducted and safeguard clauses were included in all bidding documents.

79. OP/BP 4.04 (Natural Habitats). The activities funded under the project did not affect critical natural habitats. As part of the project implementation, environmental and social assessments were prepared for Components 2 and 3 and measures to protect, maintain, and rehabilitate natural habitats have been reflected in the ESMPs, in accordance with OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment).

80. OP/BP 4.09 (Pest Management). The project financed small irrigated areas with very limited use of pesticides. To meet the requirements of this safeguard policy, environmental and social impact studies have been carried out and, among the proposed mitigation measures, public awareness sessions on good management practices and use of pesticides by the concerned operators have been provided to minimize specific potential negative effects on human and animal health and the environment and to promote integrated pest control.

81. OP/BP 4.36 (Forests). The project financed activities for participatory development of classified forests and reforestation. In accordance with OP 4.01, environmental and social assessments have been prepared and measures have been taken to reduce deforestation, enhance the contribution of forested areas to the environment, promote afforestation, combat poverty, and promote economic development, all of which were reflected in these reports.

82. OP/BP 4.37 (Safety of Dams). The project financed small dams in Benin and Niger. It also financed the rehabilitation works of the Kainji and Jebba dams in Nigeria. At the level of small dams, appropriate measures have been taken to ensure the safety of these small dams, in accordance with Article 1 of this safeguard policy. Generic safety measures designed by qualified engineers have been proposed in accordance with Article 4 of OP 4.37. The environmental and social impact study carried out made recommendations to ensure the quality of the design, execution of works, and monitoring and maintenance of small dams to ensure good maintenance. In addition, a management strategy for rehabilitated small dams has been developed to allow users to better manage the infrastructure. These measures have been reflected in the ESMP in accordance with OP/BP 4.01.

83. For rehabilitation work on the Kainji and Jebba dams in Nigeria, measures were also taken to ensure the safety of the two existing dams in accordance with the provisions of this safeguard policy. During project preparation, an environmental and social audit was carried out for the Kainji and Jebba dams. During the implementation of the project, the ESMP of the two dams was updated and supplemented by a rapid social assessment in 2010–2012. To implement the updated ESMP recommendations, another study on the implementation of the Kainji and Jebba Dam Safety System and

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the development of an epidemiological survey of waterborne diseases in the areas of both dams was commissioned in 2013.

84. OP/BP 7.50 (Projects on International Waterways). In accordance with the provisions of this safeguard policy, notification to riparian states has been made. It has been verified that there are agreements between the NBA and its member states and that they have been informed and have not objected to the project interventions. As the regional executing agency for the project, the NBA has consulted all its member countries and received their approval at the 2006 Council of Ministers. It has also informed all the member countries by official correspondence since the start of the first phase of the project and the ‘no objection’ condition was received before project negotiations.

85. Social compliance. To consider possible resettlement in the project, OP/BP 4.12 was triggered. Nevertheless, activities implemented in the project did not cause involuntary resettlement of the population as key activities are about existing infrastructure rehabilitation owned by the Government (Kainji, Jebba) or by communities (irrigation schemes, small dams). The realization of remaining activities for traditional fishery, watershed restoration, and agroforestry was done in participatory approaches and agreed by all. Any resettlement was identified and land losses are minimal and accepted by the population.

86. However, in the planned irrigation by controlled submersion in Djambacourou (Mali), safeguard studies have shown economic and social impacts of the project that led to issuing an RAP to mitigate the project impact. By the end, the population has rejected the implementation of the project in Djambacourou and funds were used to scale up fish production and commercialization.

87. With respect to physical cultural resources, a ‘fortuitous discovery’ procedure has been implemented and followed in case of discovery of cultural and archaeological remains during dam rehabilitation works in accordance with the requirements of OP 4.11.

Fiduciary Compliance

88. Financial management. The overall project financial management can be rated Modest. The PMCU at the NBA has, in the project team, an accountant and an internal control person for the overall project financial management. It is worth noting that the internal control person resigned in July 2012 and was not replaced until the end of the project. An external auditor is recruited for the annual financial audit. At country level, the NFSs and NIAs also have an accountant for each structure. However, since the beginning, until approximately the end of project implementation, issues of compliance of the project financial management were highlighted. The financial management risk rating was Substantial during the project implementation. The key issues were mainly noncompliance and reporting.

89. Procurement. The overall procurement management rating is Modest. The PMCU at the NBA has a regional procurement specialist; in addition, there is a procurement specialist in the core team of every country NIA. During the project implementation, the World Bank team conducted specific procurement reviews of the PMCU and NIAs to improve procurement processing and contract management. Alternatively, the overall supervision missions were also an opportunity to review procurement issues. Globally the project procurement questions were well-managed; however, many issues have caused

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implementation delays in almost all the beneficiary countries (Benin, Guinea, Mali, and Nigeria). The key issues were mainly the repetitive delays in procurement processes and contracts signing.

C. BANK PERFORMANCE The overall rating of the Bank performance is Moderately Satisfactory (MS)

Quality at Entry

90. The project was consistent with the regional, national, and World Bank strategic priorities. It supports the Niger Basin regional integration efforts that (a) have economic and social benefits, (b) present clear evidence of both country and regional ownership, and (c) provide a platform for high-level policy harmonization. The project is a response to a request from riparian countries, demanding the support of the World Bank, based on its convening power to gather other donors who can finance large investment needs. The World Bank team supported a complex, multi-country joint water resources development that promotes shared benefits and fosters regional integration. This requires layered intervention, with responsibilities at the regional, national, and community level, which amplified the toughness of the project during implementation. The World Bank team did the project design in a way that benefited both women and young people by income-generating activities at community level through Component 3 of the project.

91. There were some shortcomings in the quality at entry, especially in underestimation of costs and risks consideration. These shortcomings were remedied at the midterm evaluation in 2011 and at the 2014 project restructuring. On the issue of the budget, the project has downscaled the scope in Niger, Benin, and Nigeria. The political and security situation was not adequately considered at preparation as a risk to implementation. Monitoring the outcome and intermediate outcome of the Development Policy Operation was well-designed. However, the project design did not include, in the M&E system, how the number of beneficiaries should be monitored on a quarterly basis.

Quality of Supervision

92. The World Bank team has shown continuous and valuable support to the project through dedicated training on safeguards and appropriate advice on fiduciary and technical aspects. The project was restructured twice to consider its implementation challenges that had caused delays in activities’ execution. The World Bank’s team identified the project shortcomings on time and proceeded with appropriate measures (restructurings, alerting client’s decision makers, and technical support). Strong supervision by World Bank safeguard and procurement/financial management teams assisted specialists in the PMCU to build capacity. The PMCU was then able to build capacity in the NIA and NFS in a sort of cascading effect.

93. One of the shortcomings in the supervision is the continuous change of TTLs. In a 10-year supervision, the project has had five TTLs, meaning, on average, a different TTL every two years. However, this shortcoming was moderated by the fact that the tasks team was almost the same.

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Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance

94. The World Bank performance rating is Moderately Satisfactory (MS) as shortcomings are identified at entry and during the project implementation.

D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME

95. The project development outcomes can be classified in three-areas. Some are under the direct responsibility of the regional organization, NBA. One is under the Nigerian Government’s responsibility, and two others are under the responsibility of the benefiting communities.

96. Risk engaging the NBA. The sustainability of the development outcome related to ‘regional coordination’ (almost achieved) under the project is under the responsibility of the NBA. The threat on this development outcome is when the leadership of the NBA management becomes weak. A continued weak leadership of NBA management leads to friction and mistrust at the higher level of riparian countries and inefficiencies of the NBA. In this case, the tendency to go back to competitive unilateral development from countries becomes important.

97. Risk engaging the Nigerian Government. The Nigerian Government was responsible for the outcome “Improved performances of rehabilitated hydroelectric plants in targeted areas” (fully achieved). The Nigeria Government had appointed a private operator (MESL) to run the rehabilitated Kainji and Jebba hydropower plants through a concession contract. It is expected that MESL will continue to invest in the two power plants; however, since issuing this concession contract in February 2013, no important investment was made by MESL to extend the energy production. The ICR team understands the concession contract is aiming at the sustainable maintenance and development of Jebba and Kainji production in the medium and long term.

98. Risk engaging beneficiary communities. The development outcomes directly involving the beneficiary communities are as follows: “Improved irrigated agriculture in targeted areas” which is fully achieved and “Improved watershed management in targeted areas” which is almost fully achieved under the project. The major threat for sustainability of development outcomes is the weakness of the managerial, organizational, and technical capacities of farmers’ organizations regarding the production process as well as the commercialization of the marketable part.

V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

99. The project was faced with a set of related challenges revolving around the following question: how to design a regional project that accommodates at the same time local, national and regional agendas considering the disparity of approaches and existing capacities? The first challenge was to check whether the regional institution, the NBA, had the technical and institutional mechanisms to implement a project that satisfy all. The second challenge was the alignment of the regional development priorities with the country-level priorities of riparian countries. The third challenge was how to setup a country-level organization that ensures both country and regional ownership of activities to be implemented. These challenges were adequately considered in the project design.

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100. Need for adequate technical and institutional capacity. The organizational reform conducted in 2005 had led to the reorganization of the institution during the project preparation. The training and equipment needs were identified and actions planned under the project to enforce the readiness of the NBA to coordinate the development of the basin’s water resources. This, together with the strong complementarity of donors’ support demonstrates that the setup was correct and the inputs (training, equipment, and processes) well thought out. However, and it was quite inevitable, the organization that took up the project in 2007 was young and many of its staff had been recruited only recently. Was there a way to do it differently? Probably not because (a) the NBA had to begin a development phase after having successfully piloted a planning phase, and (b) only training in implementation can really build the capacity.

101. Alignment of the regional priorities with those of riparian countries. The SDAP is well aligned with the countries’ priorities. In addition, the project design was done in a way that project activities in the countries are aligned with both the SDAP and the World Bank Country Strategy of the respective countries. This comprehensive approach had facilitated the buy-in of all involved actors. The combination of ecosystems management and water infrastructure development provide leverage to consolidate national agendas and promote a regional common goods approach. For example, activities planned in Component 2 and those in Component 3 are a good illustration of local, national, and regional agendas. Watershed restoration in Niger and Benin will benefit dam reservoirs from siltation in Kainji and Jebba in Nigeria and conversely energy production in Jebba and Kainji will benefit Niger and Benin. These five countries, like all countries are engaged in a development agenda on numerous fronts (like ECOWAS) or large donor-funded programs. One of the interesting questions is: 10 years after they were formulated, how many of the non-implemented activities of the SDAP appear relevant to finance today or in the future? Two conflicting logics can be identified: on the one hand, the NBA considers itself as the guarantor of the regional plan (and of its discrete activities and investments), and on the other hand, countries may want to suggest other activities that still match the criteria of the plan. They tend to favor a certain degree of flexibility. The institutional communication should be set up in such a way that it helps reconcile these two perspectives.

102. Organization to ensure both country and regional ownership. As a regional project, its objectives were articulated around objectives assigned to the NBA and to countries by extension. NBA was responsible for the overall implementation and coordination of the project while the subsidiary principle was applied and activities planned for countries were implemented by national agencies embedded in national institutions (Components 2 and 3). The project implementation arrangements were articulated around the NBA, its NFSs and NIAs, where the creation of the NFSs responded to the need of the riparian countries to have a permanent technical arm of the NBA. The NIAs directly executed activities according to their area of expertise.

103. Risks inherent in working with multi-countries, including some fragile states. When dealing with a complex project involving many countries, including fragile states, it is important to consider the risks assessment of the externally driven delays and provision of a contingency plan to mitigate accordingly to the risk. In the current project this risk was not assessed properly. Unfortunately, the coup d’état in Guinea, Niger, and Mali and Ebola outbreak in Guinea occurred without any contingency plan. The result is known, this had contributed in the project extension to 10 years of project implementation instead of 5.

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104. Need for adequate supervision. Project implementation requires periodic field presence and continuous follow-up by task teams and continuity in the team leadership. The close follow-up of project implementation by the task team had help keeping the project in acceptable shape in compliance with World Bank policies in terms of safeguards, financial management, and procurement. However, the frequent changes of TTL did not help. An in-depth diagnosis of the social aspect during the project preparation of the development of the plain of Diambacourou could have amplified the effectiveness of the project in Mali. In Benin, the project had started very slowly because of inefficient institutional arrangements, with bottlenecks linked to the fact that the contracted staff recruited for project management are much better paid than those responsible for the NIA and NFS. For phase 2, a reflection is needed to unlock this kind of constraint. Some political or regional decisions may threaten the project implementation. In Guinea, for example, the Government conducted some reforms which has withdrawn (de facto withdrawal) from the DNGR13, the NIA, its prerogatives in terms of the selection of consulting companies and contractors, and also in the works supervision for the benefit of the Public Major Project Controlling/Procurement Authority. In Nigeria, the Government implemented a Treasury Single Account (TSA) policy which closed all Government accounts in commercial banks and transferred the money to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The process of opening a TSA account with the CBN by the PMU took over five months. The urgent need for more rigorous technical supervision of studies and work.

105. Importance of setting reasonable levels of ambition to build a track record of success with basin authorities: the original project was ambitious relative to its implementation period in terms of both the legal reforms and some of the infrastructure activities. This resulted in the project quickly falling behind in its original implementation plan and tensions between NBA and its member states and partners. As a relatively new entity working in a complex, multi-country context, it would probably have been more constructive to set less ambitious goals with a higher probability of achievement to build a track record of success leading into the following phase.

106. Bidding Documents for Plant Refurbishment: Refurbishment of an electromechanical plant within a ‘live’ operating facility is expected to encounter unforeseen needs as parts are removed and anticipated repairs may not provide the results expected. In these situations, the World Bank Standard Bidding Documents need to be adapted to build into the contract the flexibility and mechanisms to deal with issues that typically arise in such projects.

107. Successes that Need Replication and Improvement in Next Projects: Activities implemented in Component 3 are directly benefiting the communities in Benin, Guinea, Mali, and Niger. A wide range of these activities has successfully achieved the expected development outcomes and even exceeded the initial targets (traditional fishery, watershed restoration and agroforestry, and small-scale irrigation). These successful activities deserve to be continued and intensified in future projects. These activities not only boost the local economy but also contribute to improving the environment through the regeneration of ecosystems. The managerial, organizational, and technical capacities reinforcement activities implemented by the project for beneficiaries and their organizations, regarding the production process as well as the commercialization of the marketable part, have been a key factor for sustaining development outcomes. The inclusion of such capacity-building activities in similar projects is therefore a decisive step for the viability of development actions.

13 DNGR: Direction Nationale du Génie Rurale

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108. Water Resources Management regulatory triggers (covenants) and large investments to speed up the establishment of a regulatory framework: the project contributed to create in a very short time a complete Integrated Water Resources Management regulatory framework in the Niger Basin based on the Water Charter that was ratified in less than two years. It is recognized as one of the most comprehensive ones in Africa. This is owed to a large extent to (a) the inclusion of some of them as dated covenants; (b) the fact that the project financed large water resources investments (notably the Kainji et Jebba dams). The use of such mechanisms is interesting. It should however be accompanied by a thorough enough political process so that countries really own and enforce this legal framework they get to agree upon.

.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS

A. RESULTS INDICATORS

A.1 PDO Indicators

Objective/Outcome: Enhance regional coordination for Water resources management in Niger River Basin (original project PDO) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of legal instrucments Number 0.00 4.00 4.00 1.00 adopted by riparian integrated water countries 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017 for integrated water resources management at regional level.

Comments (achievements against targets): the adoption of one out of four legal instruments for integrated water resources management at regional level by riparian countries. the adopted instruments are: (I) regional environmental code. The three other legal instruments were not adopted during the project lifetime, However, good progress were made on the studies leading to the adoption of two legal instruments. "the Agreement on Joint Management of Infrastructure” and “the Agreement on Dispute Resolution and Arbitrage”. With the 2014 restructuring, due to the unavailability of sufficient funds in the project, it was agreed to finalize the work done through the CIWA supported project (ongoing P149714). The "Agreement on Common Guarantee of Infrastructure" was not achieved neither, but GIZ is willing to finance the studies related to legal instrument in 2019. In Conclusion: (i) the legal instrument on "Regional environmental code" was achieved; (ii) good progress is maid in the achievement of the following legal instruments with strong likelihood, "the Agreement on Joint Management of Infrastructure” and “the Agreement on Dispute Resolution and Arbitrage”; (iii) the "Agreement on Common Guarantee of Infrastructure" was not achieved but the studies related to this agreement will be financed by GIZ.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Objective/Outcome: Enhance regional development of water resources in the Niger River Basin (Original project PDO) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Generation Capacity of Megawatt 0.00 340.00 340.00 340.00 Hydropower constructed or rehabilitated under the 29-Nov-2012 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017 project

Generation Capacity of Megawatt 0.00 578.00 578.00 578.00 Hydropower rehabilitated under the project (Jebba) 29-Dec-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Generation Capacity of Megawatt 0.00 340.00 340.00 340.00 Hydropower rehabilitated under the project (Kainji) 29-Dec-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Comments (achievements against targets): hydropower capacity increased to 340 MW, rehabilitated or reinforced under the project (340 MW for Kainji rehabilitation and securing the existing production of 578 MW for Jebba)

Objective/Outcome: Enhance regional coordination in Niger River Basin (Revised PDO) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Percentage of activities Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 implemented according to the Niger Basin Sustainable 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017 Development Action Plan

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Comments (achievements against targets): At the end of the project, 100 percent of activities implemented under the project are aligned with the Niger Basin SDAP (there are 34 activities planned in the SDAP and all activities implemented under the projects are in accordance with 20 activities of the SDAP)

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of legal instrucments Number 0.00 4.00 4.00 1.00 adopted by riparian integrated water countries 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017 for integrated water resources management at regional level.

Comments (achievements against targets): the adoption of one out of four legal instruments for integrated water resources management at regional level by riparian countries. the adopted instruments are: (I) regional environmental code. The three other legal instruments were not adopted during the project lifetime, However, good progress were made on the studies leading to the adoption of two legal instruments. "the Agreement on Joint Management of Infrastructure” and “the Agreement on Dispute Resolution and Arbitrage”. With the 2014 restructuring, due to the unavailability of sufficient funds in the project, it was agreed to finalize the work done through the CIWA supported project (ongoing P149714). The "Agreement on Common Guarantee of Infrastructure" was not achieved neither, but GIZ is willing to finance the studies related to legal instrument in 2019. In Conclusion: (i) the legal instrument on "Regional environmental code" was achieved; (ii) good progress is maid in the achievement of the following legal instruments with strong likelihood, "the Agreement on Joint Management of Infrastructure” and “the Agreement on Dispute Resolution and Arbitrage”; (iii) the "Agreement on Common Guarantee of Infrastructure" was not achieved but the studies related to this agreement will be financed by GIZ.

Objective/Outcome: Improve water resources management in the Niger River Basin (Revised PDO) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Generation Capacity of Megawatt 0.00 340.00 340.00 340.00

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Hydropower constructed or 29-Nov-2012 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017 rehabilitated under the project

Generation Capacity of Megawatt 0.00 578.00 578.00 578.00 Hydropower rehabilitated under the project (Jebba) 29-Dec-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Generation Capacity of Megawatt 0.00 340.00 340.00 340.00 Hydropower rehabilitated under the project (Kainji) 29-Dec-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Comments (achievements against targets): hydropower capacity increased to 340 MW, rehabilitated or reinforced under the project (340 MW for Kainji rehabilitation and securing the existing production of 578 MW for Jebba)

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Land area under sustainable Hectare(Ha) 0.00 2250.00 13439.00 10620.00 landscape management practices 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Comments (achievements against targets): The project achievements are 10,620 ha of land where sustainable practices were adopted. the distribution is as follow: (Benin - 1,815 ha of which 1,115 ha was improved; Niger - 7,500 ha of which 7,965 ha delivered; Mali - 2,866 ha planned and 590 ha improved; and Guinea - 950 ha planned and 950 ha delivered).

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 0.00 55.00 3.20

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(millions) 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Female beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 0.00 31.90 1.57

29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Comments (achievements against targets): The restructuring of December 2014 added a new PDO indicator to reflect the number of beneficiaries. However, the proposed target was 55 million people mainly based on the assumption that electricity generation from dam rehabilitation and refurbishment would benefit to all the population living in the River Basin in Nigeria. Basically, the simplistic assumption theorizes that any KWH produced into the grid would automatically generate as many beneficiaries as inhabitant in the River Basin. With hindsight, the ICR proposes a more realistic and rigorous approach to estimate the number of beneficiaries from electricity generation based on a minimum energy consumption of 250 Kwh per capita per year recommended by the International Energy Agency. Considering that, the project enabled the production of incremental electric energy estimated at 796, 977 MWh per year, the number of beneficiaries are objectively estimated at 3,187,908 people. In Benin, 1,500 people benefitted from irrigation while 2,335 benefitted from other income-generating activities. The total number of direct beneficiaries is estimated at 3,835 people of which 2,335 are females. In Guinea, the number of beneficiaries is estimated at 1,600 people half of whom are females. In Mali, 200 people benefitted from river bank protection training, 1,700 women from Burgu production, and 7,000 people from training sessions. The total number of beneficiaries is estimated at 8,900 people of which 1,700 are females. In Niger, the project benefited at least 8,875 people of which 4,438 are females. In total, the project beneficiaries are estimated at 3,211,118 people of which 1,580,912 females.

A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators

Component: Component 1: NBA institutional strengthening and capacity building

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Component 1: Percentage of Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 monthly and/or annual water resources information 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 16-Jun-2017 database publicly available

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on NBA website.

Comments (achievements against targets): 100 percent of monthly and/or annual water resources information database publicly available on the NBA’s website

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Component 1: Number of Number 0.00 2.00 3.00 0.00 water management meetings held per year by the 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017 Permanent Water Commission (PWC).

Comments (achievements against targets): the PWC was supposed to hold at least three water management meetings per year. This PWC was in place since 2013, but since then no meeting was held.

Component: Component 2: Rehabilitation, optimization, and development of regional infrastructure

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Component 2: Number of Number 0.00 10.00 9.00 9.00 Kainji hydropower units rehabilitated and Jebban 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 16-Jun-2017 units reinforced

Comments (achievements against targets): Nine units rehabilitated/reinforced in Kainji and Jebba hydropower (three units rehabilitated in Kainji and six units in Jebba) representing 100 percent of planned units to be rehabilitated/reinforced

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Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Component 2: Kainji dam Text Faulty Full replacement or Full replacement or Faulty monitoring and instrumentation and repair of recording repair of recording instrumentation and instrumentation equipment monitoring equipment instrumentation and instrumentation and monitoring equipment updated in Kainji and Jebba at Kainji and Jebba monitoring equipment monitoring equipment at Kainji and Jebbah at Kainji and Jebba. at Kainji and Jebba. repaired and commissioned . 100 % achieved

29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Comments (achievements against targets): The targeted updating of dam monitoring and instrumentation equipment has been achieved. There are no remarks on post commissioning faults/underperformances of the systems

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Component 2: Number of Number 0.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 dam sites with completed feasibility studies. 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 19-Dec-2016

Comments (achievements against targets): 100 percent of dam sites had the feasibility studies completed (one in Nigeria with a hydropower master plan in Niger basin located in Nigeria, one in Niger with Kandadji dam, and one in Guinea with Fomi dam). The revised end project target is three sites with feasibility studies

Component: Component 3: Sustainable management of selected degraded ecosystems and rehabilitation of small water infrastructure

Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at

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Target Completion Component 3: Hectares Hectare(Ha) 0.00 1000.00 2205.00 2655.00 afforested for ecological or income generation purposes. 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Comments (achievements against targets): 2,655 ha afforested for ecological or income generation purposes (1115 ha in Benin, 950 ha in Guinea and 590 ha in Mali) while the end project target was 2,205 ha

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Component 3: Hectares of Hectare(Ha) 0.00 1200.00 5005.00 2126.00 irrigation schemes rehabilitated. 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Comments (achievements against targets): 2,126 ha of irrigation schemes rehabilitated (620 ha in Niger, 1500 ha in Benin and 6 ha in Mali) with end- project target of 5,005 ha, corresponding to 42 percent of the expected target

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of small dams Number 0.00 12.00 8.00 6.00 rehabilitated in Niger and Benin. 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 16-Jun-2017

Comments (achievements against targets): Six small dams out of eight rehabilitated in Benin and Niger. It should be noted that the small dam rehabilitated in Niger collapsed before the formal acceptance of works. The Government of Niger had committed to rebuild the collapsed dam but to date it is still not rebuilt.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Component 3: Hectares of Hectare(Ha) 0.00 2250.00 2250.00 8555.00 areas stabilized against erosion. 29-Nov-2007 29-Nov-2007 31-Dec-2017 11-Dec-2017

Comments (achievements against targets): 8,555 ha (7965 ha in Niger and 590 ha in Mali) of areas stabilized against erosion while the end project target was 2,250 ha.

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B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT

Objective/Outcome 1: Enhance regional coordination in Niger River Basin 1. Percentage of activities implemented according to the Niger Basin Sustainable Development Action Plan Outcome Indicators 2. Number of legal instruments adopted by riparian countries for integrated water resources management at regional level 1. Percentage of monthly and/or annual water resources information database publicly available on the NBA's website. Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Number of water management meetings held per year by the Permanent Water Commission (PWC) 1. Capacity reinforcement/building activities Key Outputs by Component 2. (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 3. 4. Objective/Outcome 2: Improve water resources management in the Niger River Basin 1. Generation capacity of hydropower rehabilitated under project 2. Land area where sustainable land management practices were Outcome Indicators adopted as a result of project. 3. Direct beneficiaries from the project. 4. Female beneficiaries. 1. Number of Kainji hydropower units rehabilitated/reinforced in Kainji and Jebba hydropower 2. Kainji dam monitoring and instrumentation equipment updated in Intermediate Results Indicators Kainji and Jebba 3. Number of dam sites with completed feasibility studies 4. Hectares afforested for ecological or income generation purposes 5. Hectares of irrigation schemes rehabilitated

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6. Number of small dams rehabilitated in Niger and Benin 7. Hectares of areas stabilized against erosion 1. Activities for energy production/securing and dam sites feasibility studies Key Outputs by Component 2. Activities for small-scale irrigation and small dam’s construction (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 3. Activities for watershed restoration and agroforestry 4. Activities for fish production

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ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION

A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS

Name Role Preparation Supervision/ICR Pierrick Fraval Task Team Leader(s) Alpha Mamoudou Bah, Sylvain Auguste Rambeloson, Ibrah Procurement Specialist(s) Rahamane Sanoussi Josue Akre Financial Management Specialist Vincent Roquet Team Member Amadou Soumaila Team Member Abdoul Wahabi Seini Social Safeguards Specialist Federico Ciampitti Team Member Jean Vincent Koua Team Member Medou Lo Environmental Safeguards Specialist Amos Abu Team Member Taibou Adamou Maiga Team Member Mariama Yaye Mme Gamatie Team Member Caroline Plancon Team Member Laura Bonzanigo Team Member Nicolas Jean Marie Sans Team Member Mohamed Nanzoul Team Member Yoro Sidibe Team Member

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

B. STAFF TIME AND COST

Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY05 22.399 91,339.33 FY06 43.149 173,494.30 FY07 95.743 584,085.45 FY08 -.004 0.00

Total 161.29 848,919.08

Supervision/ICR FY07 0 4,833.03 FY08 41.579 309,452.58 FY09 35.706 369,602.13 FY10 36.063 437,984.12 FY11 61.592 782,522.24 FY12 41.492 625,383.26 FY13 36.791 526,562.13 FY14 34.746 372,505.19 FY15 35.476 132,539.78 FY16 43.128 182,972.77 FY17 9.132 40,661.20 FY18 31.833 191,027.06 Total 407.54 3,976,045.49

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT

Amount at Amount at 2014 Actual at Project Percentage of Components Approval Restructuring Closing (US$M) Approval (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) Component 1: NBA 7.77 10.73 12.37 159% Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building Component 2: 138.45 134.62 126.09 91% Rehabilitation, Optimization and Development of Regional Infrastructure Sustainable Management 39.78 40.65 47.54 120% of selected degraded ecosystems and rehabilitation of small water infrastructure. Total 186.00 186.00 186.00 100%

PROJECT COST BY COUNTRY Amount at Approval Amount at 2014 Restructuring Country/Institution (US$M) (US$M) Benin 9.00 9.00

Guinea 9.00 9.00

Mali 18.00 18.00

Niger 15.00 15.00

Nigeria 135.00 135.00

NBA

Total 186.00 186.00

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS Economic and Financial Analysis Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management APL 1 Project

A. Project Objectives and Scope

1. The economic analysis of the project is based on CBA of the different subprojects implemented in the five project countries. The analysis captures the combined benefits and costs from hydropower generation, irrigation, fisheries, fodder production, reforestation, and agroforestry. The analysis covers 30 years, including the implementation period with a 25-year stream of benefits and costs.

2. At appraisal, the PDO was “enhance regional coordination, development and sustainability of water resources management in the Niger River Basin.” After the second restructuring in 2014, the scope of the project was reduced. The PDO became “enhance regional coordination and improve water resources management in the Niger River Basin.” Project activities took place in five countries of the River Basin: Benin, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Table 4.16 shows the nature of the activities for which CBA was performed.

3. At appraisal, an ex-ante economic assessment based on a CBA was performed. The analysis considered three main types of quantifiable benefits in the five project countries: (a) sustainable management of degraded environments; (b) rehabilitation of national water infrastructure; and (c) rehabilitation of regional water infrastructure. Table 4.1 shows a summary of the results of the economic analysis.

Table 4.1. Economic Analysis at Appraisal - Summary of Results Sustainable Rehabilitation of Rehabilitation of Management of National Water Regional Water Total Degraded Infrastructure Infrastructure Environments NPV (US$, IRR (%) NPV (US$, IRR (%) NPV (US$, IRR (%) NPV (US$, IRR (%) thousands) thousands) thousands) thousands) Guinea 4,267 33 — — — — — — Mali 7,957 21 2,046 35 — — — — Niger 537 32 1,838 24 — — — — Benin 485 27 3,693 22 — — — — Nigeria — — — — — 54 — — Total — — — — — — 893,874 51 B. Ex post Economic Analysis of the Subprojects and the Overall Project

I. Approach of the Cost-benefit Analysis

4. The project ex post CBA relies on the identification of economic benefits and costs generated by different activities. Incremental benefits are calculated considering the ‘with’ project and the ‘without’ project situations. Project benefits are estimated following different methodologies depending on the type of benefit considered. These methodologies are explained for each subproject. The benefit stream

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does not consider some of the environmental benefits (reduced sedimentation in the river) or some nutritional benefits related to increased nutritional outcomes for local communities that rely on fish consumption for protein intake. Therefore, the results of the economic analysis should be viewed as conservative lower-bound values. Project costs are calculated considering investment and O&M costs. Investment costs are derived from the project financial reporting documents and O&M costs are estimated according to the nature of each activity and reference values either from other similar projects or adopted in the relevant published literature. An ex post economic analysis has been performed in each country and each quantifiable subproject after following adapted methodologies.

II. Nigeria

5. At appraisal, activities in Nigeria were planned to focus on the rehabilitation and upgrading of existing large water infrastructures of regional relevance. These infrastructures included the Kainji hydropower dam and the Jebba hydropower dam. For the Kainji dam, planned activities included:

(a) Rehabilitation of productive electromechanical equipment to restore the available capacity from the current 480 MW up to a total installed capacity of 760 MW;

(b) Rehabilitation of auxiliary services;

(c) Rehabilitation of the navigation lock;

(d) Upgrading instrumentation and monitoring equipment;

(e) Improvement of the flood warning systems and development of a decision support and management system;

(f) Implementation of the Environmental Action Plan to mitigate any potential impact of the rehabilitation of Kainji and Jebba sites; and

(g) Operational support and reinforcement of the PHCN and NFS in Nigeria.

6. Following the restructuring of December 2014, the activity ‘Rehabilitation of the navigation lock’ was cancelled.

7. For the Jebba dam, activities included:

(a) Selected rehabilitation of electromechanical equipment to ensure the availability of the entire installed capacity of 578 MW;

(b) Rehabilitation of auxiliary services;

(c) Civil works for stabilization of the tailrace channel and rehabilitation of upper navigation lock;

(d) Upgrading of instrumentation and monitoring equipment;

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(e) Prevention of tree invasion; and

(f) Reinforcement of the maintenance workshops.

Kainji Dam hydropower production

Benefits

8. Economic benefits are derived from the incremental generation from replacement or refurbishment of generating units that were decommissioned or de-rated (that is, Units 5, 6, and 12). The post-refurbishment incremental energy generated by Kainji was estimated using the limited available operational data. Unit 12 was commissioned and entered commercial service on May 28, 2016. The analysis is based on generation data for the 18-day period from May 29 to June 15, 2016 when Units 5, 6, and 12 were fully operational. The generation in this period is compared to the generation in the same period in 2011 before the refurbishment works commenced. The reservoir was spilling during both periods. The incremental energy over the 18-day period is estimated at 40,987 MWh. The annual energy generation is estimated at 796.977 MWh considering 15 days’ outage per year for maintenance. The ex post CBA tests two values of energy cost in this analysis. In the baseline scenario, the value adopted in the economic analysis conducted at appraisal in 2007 is considered (refer PAD, annex 9), which is US¢7.80 per kWh. A sensitivity analysis is then performed with the levelized cost of generation from a base load proxy unit estimated at US¢6.90 per kWh.

Costs

Investment Cost

9. The investment cost is equal to the total costs of studies and works for the rehabilitation of Kainji Units 5, 6, and 12, estimated at US$85,648,073. The construction period extended from 2012 to 2016 (five years). Disbursement occurred over these five years in proportion to the disbursement schedule for Component 2.

Incremental O&M Cost

10. The additional O&M costs incurred in operating and maintaining the refurbished and replaced units is probably small given that the scope of the main refurbishment contract also included updating common systems which would reduce maintenance effort in the future. Nonetheless, the incremental O&M cost is conservatively assumed to be 1.5 percent of the capital cost of the refurbishment. Therefore, O&M costs are estimated at an annual amount of US$1,265,916.

Cost-benefit Analysis Approach

11. A standard CBA is used. The time horizon considered in the analysis is 30 years. Investment costs were incurred the first five years of the project implementation. NPV was calculated for discount rates of 8 percent and 5 percent.

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Results

Table 4.2. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent

NPV (US$, millions) NPV (US$, millions) EIRR Assumption Discount Rate of 8 percent Discount Rate of 5 percent (Percentage) Baseline scenario 380.8 609.28 35.7 Sensitivity analysis 328.0 524.8 33.0

12. This subproject generated an EIRR of 35.7 percent under the baseline scenario (33 percent for the sensitivity analysis) which is much higher than the opportunity cost of capital. This economic performance is comparable to that of other hydropower projects.14

13. The results confirm the expectations of the PAD economic appraisal. The economic returns on the investment are attractive and underline the quality of Subcomponent 2-a of the Niger Basin WRDSEM Program.

Jebba Hydropower Dam

14. At appraisal, the project was expected to improve the dam electricity generation capacity through the rehabilitation of selected electromechanical equipment. However, this activity was modified during the second restructuring of the project. At completion, capacity of the Jebba hydropower plant was not increased by the project intervention and there is therefore no incremental energy. Instead, the project financing focused on safety of structures (spillway channel upgrade and dam instrumentation improvements), service life extension (rehabilitation of concrete structures, 110 kV battery bank, and sequence of events recorder) and improving O&M efficiency (reequip workshop and supply vehicles). Attributing a monetary value to the economic benefits deriving from these expenditures would be difficult to rigorously quantify. However, the economic justification of such investments is easily recognizable considering that they ensured compliance with national and international standards. The improvements are also expected to reduce future O&M costs, extend the service time of the dam, and increase its safety.

III. Benin

15. At appraisal, the following activities were planned under the project:

(a) Rehabilitation of 12 small dams in Benin and diversification of agricultural activities

(b) Development of small irrigation schemes in Benin

16. At ICR, the project achieved the following results:

(a) Full rehabilitation of five small dams in Borgou and Alibori region

14 See, for example, Renewable Energy Development and Power Sector Rehabilitation Project (RRP SAM 46044).

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(b) Completed development of 1,500 ha of small irrigation schemes at low cost in Karimama and Malanville

(c) Building of two warehouses with a capacity of 1,000 tons each in Karimama and Malanville

(d) Land restoration and reforestation of 1,125 ha

(e) Development of income-generating activities for 2,335 direct beneficiaries in Karimama, Malanville, and Kalalé

17. The economic analysis focuses on three main activities: (a) land restoration and reforestation, (b) small irrigation schemes, and (c) development of income-generating activities.

Land Restoration and Reforestation

18. Land restoration and reforestation activities covered several degraded areas across the northern areas of Benin.

19. Agroforestry activities covered several municipalities located in three main departments (Alibori, Atacora, and Borgou). The municipalities include Kérou, Sinendé, Kandi, Karimama, Malanville, Bembèrèkè, Kalalé, and Péhunco. A total of 686,012 seedlings were planted covering an area estimated at 474 ha (an average of 1,447 seedlings per ha). Kérou experienced the lowest survival rate of seedlings, estimated at 50 percent, while Sinendé, Karimana, and Péhunco experienced the highest survival rate, estimated at 95 percent. The average survival rate is 85.6 percent. This implies a potential of 1,238 trees per ha over 474 ha.

20. Rehabilitation and reforestation activities focuses on 590 ha and included fruit crops. The representative fruit crop is the cashew (A. Occidentale) which produces high-value comestible nuts. Several studies have demonstrated the high profitability of cashew farming both on the African continent and elsewhere in the world.15

Benefits

21. Land restoration and reforestation provide a large range of ecosystem services that render substantial benefits to communities. These benefits include reduced soil erosion, fodder protection, carbon sequestration, soil moisture storage, and in some cases, nitrogen fixation, depending on the type of trees planted. These benefits have been well-documented through several studies.16 However, literature quantifying the benefits are scant. The Economics of Land Degradation (ELD) Initiative has undertaken recent studies that evaluate different dimensions of the economic value of land restoration and reforestation in different countries. Methodologies used in ELD studies have been validated by a growing body of literature.17 The estimation of the benefits will rely on the study performed in Mali as the

15 See, for example, Lawal et al. (2011) and Wongnaa (2013). 16 Refer to ELD Initiative studies. 17 See, for example, Etter, Gerhartsreiter, and Stewart. (2017).

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agroecological conditions are similar.18 To be conservative, the CBA only considers benefits related to soil erosion, sales of cashew nuts, fodder production, and carbon sequestration.

22. Benefits from avoided soil erosion are estimated using avoided cost valuation method. Based on relevant literature, soil erosion leads to substantial opportunity costs in terms of loss of crop yield.19 The opportunity cost of the incremental loss of a representative crop (maize) is used to estimate the benefits.

23. Benefits from cashew sales are estimated using a market-based approach since cashew has a market value. A similar method is used to estimate the benefits derived from fodder. Benefits from carbon sequestration is estimated using the method proposed by the technical report on the social cost of carbon of the White House Interagency Working Group. This method integrates a simplified climate model and a simplified economic model into a cohesive numerical model to capture the feedback effects between the two. The report provides the projected value of CO2 for a period of 30 years considering the monetary estimate of the associated avoided damage.

Costs

24. Costs include investment costs and maintenance costs (surveillance, pruning, and so on). The bulk of the costs are incurred during the first years when the maintenance of seedlings is critical. Investment cost areas are estimated at US$1,225,848 and O&M costs are estimated at US$66,667. O&M costs represent about 5.4 percent of investment costs.

25. Reforestation costs were estimated at US$612,595 (US$574,427 as investment costs and US$38,168 for maintenance costs) representing US$1,038 per hectare. Reforestation costs were estimated at US$682,385 (US$653,760 as investment costs and US$28,626 for maintenance costs) representing US$1,440/ha. These costs are higher compared with other studies where farmer-managed natural regeneration methods are applied. In these studies, costs have been estimated to range from US$267 per hectare to US$316 per hectare.

Results

Table 4.3. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent NPV (US$) NPV (US$) Assumption EIRR (percent) Discount Rate of 8 percent Discount Rate of 5 percent Baseline scenario 35,609,787 63,155,433 48.2

Small Irrigation Schemes

26. The project financed the development of 1,500 ha of land for rice and vegetables growing: 800 ha in Birni-Lafia, 400 ha in Monnin, and 300 ha in Garou. Pumps were provided to several young farmers to enable the start of their activities. This subproject directly benefited 1,500 persons and their households.

Subproject Benefits

18 Refer to Sidibé, Myint, and Westerberg (2014). 19 See Diao and Sarpong (2007).

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27. Survey undertaken at the field level in 2015 has shown that agricultural activities have generated rice production and high-value vegetable crops including onion, pepper, tomato, and okra. Table 4.4 summarizes the financial results for the crops mentioned.

Table 4.4 Financial Results by Crop Type (FCFA, per ha)

Crop Type Onion Pepper Tomato Okra Rice Yield (t/ha) 26.4 23.8 10 7.2 6 Volume of fuel (L) 672 252 224 128 300 Cost of fuel used (CFAF) 336,000 126,000 112,000 64,000 150,000 Crop sales price (CFAF 167 200 105 167 170 per kg) Sales Revenue (CFAF per 4,400,000 4,760,000 1,050,000 1,200,000 1,020,000 ha) Other farm costs (CFAF 1,555,000 1,872,000 620, 000 500,000 600,000 per ha) Total farm costs (CFAF 1,891,000 1,998,000 732,000 564,000 750,000 per ha) Net farm benefits (CFAF 2,509,000 2,762,000 318,000 636,000 270,000 per ha) Source: Research SU DOM SE-ONG, fields survey, June 2016.

Subproject Costs

28. The project financed about US$1,752,660 in the agricultural component in Benin. Most of this investment was used to develop land for irrigation and acquire pumps for irrigation purposes. Other costs will include O&M and equipment renewal costs conservatively estimated at 20 percent of investment costs.

Result

Table 4.5. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent NPV (US$) NPV (US$) Assumption EIRR (Percentage) Discount Rate of 8 percent Discount Rate of 5 percent Baseline scenario 58,588,574 87,752,166 107.9

29. The results indicate a very strong economic performance of irrigated systems. This achievement is mainly due to the relatively low cost of irrigation development using low-cost pumps (approximately US$500 per pump).

Development of Income-generating Activities

30. The project supported the achievement of several types of income-generating activities through numerous villages. Table 4.6 shows the details of the achievement.

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Table 4.6. Data on Income-Generating Activities supported by the project Number of Annual Production Annual Sales Value Income-generating Activities Villages Capacity (CFAF) Apiculture 27 11,340 liters 49,744,800 Mustard (Brassica nigra) 23 16,560 kg 24,840,000 Soy cheese 30 216,000 kg 140,400,000 Vegetable farming 29 91,350 kg 146,160,000 Seedling development 14 250,000 plants 25,000,000 Shea butter 35 94,500 kg 113,400,000 Cow milk cheese 19 213,800 kg 277,940,000 Total estimate — — 778,068,000 Source: Research SU DOM SE-ONG, fields survey International Building and Trade, June 2016.

Benefits

31. A wide range of benefits resulted from the income-generating activities. For example, apicultural production enabled several households to produce and market honey and honey-related products. Nere fruits (Parkia biglobosa) are transformed into local high-value products and sold on local markets. An estimated 80 percent of the beneficiaries of the income-generating activities are women.

32. Since most of the products have market value, the market price and quantities sold were considered in the calculation of the economic benefits of income-generating activities (table4.6).

Costs

33. The project supported income-generating activities in several ways including awareness campaigns, simple management plans, and the provision of kits consisting of equipment that allowed women to initiate activities. The financing costs are estimated at US$782,891. Subsequent O&M and renewal costs are estimated at a conservative 20 percent of investment costs.

Result

Table 4.7. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent NPV (US$) NPV (US$) Assumption Discount Rate of 8 Discount Rate of 5 EIRR (Percentage) percent) percent Baseline scenario 10,071,175 15,675,019 52 Note: The activity generated a solid economic rate of return.

Other Project Benefits

34. The project in Benin generated several other benefits that could not be reliably quantified. These benefits include training provided to women’s groups to perform income-generating activities and training of seedling producers who continue their activities beyond the duration of the project. The project also generated substantial local employment during its implementation.

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IV. Niger

35. In Niger, the project financed the following activities:

(a) The eight complementary studies for Kandadji dam in Tillabéri region have been fully completed;

(b) 621 ha of small irrigation schemes in Djambala, in Tillabéri region have been fully completed;

(c) The project has restored 10,738 ha of plateau and watershed degraded lands in Tillabéri and Dosso regions;

(d) 1,955 ha in Tillabéri and Dosso regions have been completely reforested; and

(e) The traditional fishery system in Tillabéri and Dosso regions have been improved through the organization of fishermen in groups; the project also supported beneficiaries with fishery equipment.

36. The economic analysis in Niger focuses on three key activities including (a) rehabilitation of irrigation schemes, (b) afforestation activities, and (c) traditional fisheries.

Rehabilitation of Irrigation Schemes

37. The project initially planned to rehabilitate three irrigation schemes: Djambala scheme (689 ha), Kourani scheme (693 ha), and Sona-Lossa-Kokomani scheme (406 ha). Only Djambala scheme was rehabilitated as the other schemes were added to other projects.

Benefits

38. The main benefit derived from the rehabilitation of the Djambala scheme relates to sustainable production of rice and the income generated by this activity. Before the rehabilitation of the scheme, the drainage system was clogged by substantial sedimentation. This situation made the scheme vulnerable to recurrent flooding that caused damage to crops and impeded regular access of farmers to the scheme. As a result, crop yield fell. Several actions were undertaken to rehabilitate the scheme including the reconstruction of the drainage canals, the reconstruction of the irrigation canals (primary and secondary), and protection of the infrastructure.

39. The benefits are estimated as the value of the incremental yield resulting from the rehabilitation. Average yield increased from 4.5 t/ha before the rehabilitation to 6.7 t/ha after the rehabilitation.

Costs

40. The project financed an estimated amount of US$3,666,190 in studies, works, and supervision of the irrigation subproject in Niger representing about US$5,755 per hectare. O&M costs are assumed to represent an annual amount of 5 percent of the rehabilitation costs.

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Result

Table 4.8. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent NPV (US$) NPV (US$) Assumption Discount Rate of 8 Discount Rate of 5 EIRR (Percentage) percent percent Baseline scenario 712,760 2,044,842 11.3

41. The economic performance of the irrigation is acceptable. The performance has been affected by the relatively high cost of rehabilitation (US$5,755 per hectare).

Improvement of Traditional Fisheries

42. Traditional fishery systems in Tillabéri and Dosso regions have been improved through the introduction of different species of fishes into more than 20 ponds, the organization of fishermen in groups. The project also supported beneficiaries with fishery equipment including small boats, fishing nets, and fish conservation equipment.

Benefits

43. Benefits are directly derived from the sale of fish caught from the main ponds in Tillabéri and in Dosso. In Niger, fish has high value in small towns and cities. Table 4.9 provides data on fish production and value.

Table 4.9. Data on Fish Production and Value 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area with fish introduced (ha) 360 1734 952 1020 Quantity of fish produced (t) 40.636 64.136 67.265 70.649 Value of fish produced (CFAF) 13,565,600 28,045,400 37,465,250 40,849,750 Costs

44. The project supported the costs for fish introduction into ponds, trainings for fishermen groups, and provision of fishing equipment. Costs are estimated at CFAF 287,298,118 (US$548,279). Other costs include day to day O&M costs incurred by fishermen in the course of their activity.

Result

Table 4.10. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent NPV (US$, millions) NPV (US$, millions) Assumption Discount Rate of 8 Discount Rate of 5 EIRR (Percentage) percent percent Baseline scenario 386,712 722,606 18.4

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Reforestation

45. Reforestation activities covered an estimated area of 6,310 ha. Different species were planted to limit erosion. Different adapted techniques were used to ensure the survival of seedlings. These techniques include ‘Demi-lune’.

Benefits

46. Estimation of benefits follow the same methodology as in Benin.

Costs

47. Investment costs are estimated at US$4,668,710. O&M costs are considered negligible. By experience, once the trees have reached a certain height, the need for O&M becomes minimal.

Result

Table 4.11. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent

NPV (US$, millions) NPV (US$, millions) Assumption EIRR (percent) Discount Rate of 8 percent Discount Rate of 5 percent Baseline scenario 68,926,627 124,042,774 36.9

V. Mali

48. In Mali, the project activities included:

(a) Seven fishponds being fully developed and functional in Gao and Asongo;

(b) Development of a 5 ha garden for women in Diambacourou;

(c) Implementation of a biological protection of banks against erosion on 9 km with Vetiver grass; and

(d) Development of 720 ha of bourgou for pasturage in five villages in Mopti Region.

49. The economic assessment in Mali focuses in bourgou production.

Animal Fodder Production - Bourgou

50. Around 720 ha of bourgou for pasturage in five villages in Mopti Region have been entirely developed. Bourgou (Echinochloa stagnina) is a highly nutritive herbaceous plant that grows in shallow water. It is widely used as feed for cattle and other animals in several Sahel countries. Once dried, it has high value in local markets.

Benefits

51. The benefits are estimated following a market-based valuation approach.

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Costs

52. The costs of this subproject are estimated at US$1,400,372. Recurrent costs are US$1,470 per hectare based on a study by Réseau National des Chambres d’Agriculture du Niger (RECA).

Results

Table 4.12. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent NPV (US$) NPV (US$) Assumption EIRR (percent) Discount Rate of 8 percent Discount Rate of 5 percent Baseline scenario 67,010,779 105,096,566 75.5

Fisheries

53. Fishery infrastructures, including fish market, fish smoking and drying equipment, and so on in Gao and Ansongo, have been completed. The project also supported the procurement of two refrigerated wagons of 100 tons and fishery equipment for Gao and Tombouctou communities. The five villages in Mopti region received 100 heifers, 5 sires, 30 oxen, and 40 donkeys and completed the construction of four cattle enclosures. The benefits of these investments could not be quantified due to the lack of reliable quantitative data.

VI. Guinea

54. The following activities have been achieved in Guinea:

(a) Technical and safeguard studies for the multipurpose Fomi dam

(b) Development of 450 ha of lowlands with irrigation schemes in Faranah and Kissidougou, which were fully completed

(c) Development of 500 ha under agroforestry system in Faranah and Kissidougou

55. In Guinea, the CBA focuses on the economic performance of lowlands irrigation development activities and agroforestry activities.

Development of Lowlands for Irrigated Agriculture

56. The project developed irrigation schemes in prefectures of Faranah and Kissidougou. The land is mainly used for rice production. The project intervention resulted in an increase in rice yield. However, capacity building and strengthening for farmers may be insufficient as they have not received training regarding O&M and adequate water management.

Benefits

57. As for irrigation schemes rehabilitated in Niger, the main benefits derive from increased crop production. The irrigation schemes have experienced an increase in production from 3 t/ha without the project to 3.5 t/ha with the project intervention. The yield increase is modest probably due to the lack of

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agricultural water management knowledge. Paddy rice has high value in local markets. The farmgate price fluctuates around US$0.44 per kg.

Costs

58. The project investment costs were estimated at US$3,959,738. This represents a per area investment cost of US$8,800 per hectare. This cost is relatively high compared to the unit cost expected from investments in lowland development.20 O&M costs are estimated to represent an annual 5 percent of investment costs.

Results

Table 4.13. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent NPV (US$) NPV (US$) Assumption EIRR (Percentage) Discount Rate of 8 percent Discount Rate of 5 percent Baseline scenario −2,765,840 −3,262,499 Not calculated

59. The irrigation subproject in Guinea exhibits a negative NPV. The EIRR could not be computed as is often the case when the NPV is negative. This subproject was hampered by high investment costs and probably by the lack of appropriate knowledge regarding agricultural water management.

Development of Agroforestry System

60. The project financing supported the development of 500 ha under the agroforestry system in Faranah and Kissidougou. Different native species were planted including acacia, palm, and orange trees.

Benefits

61. The agroforestry system provides several benefits including soil protection from erosion, provision of palm oil which is an essential ingredient in several areas in Guinea, nitrate fixation in the soil especially by acacia trees. Because of the limitations of data availability, the analysis will conservatively focus on benefits from avoided soil erosion, fodder production. and carbon sequestration focusing on the acacia as the representative tree. The method used is similar to that applied for agroforestry development in Benin and in Niger.

Costs

62. Investment costs are estimated at US$844,787. O&M costs are considered negligible. By experience, acacia plantations need only limited O&M once they reach three years.

20 You (2008) estimates that investment costs in intercommunity small-scale irrigation range from US$3,000 to US$8,000 per hectare for Sub-Saharan Africa.

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Results

Table 4.14. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Subcomponent NPV (US$) NPV (US$) Assumption EIRR (Percentage) Discount Rate of 8 percent Discount Rate of 5 percent Baseline scenario 843,997 2,006,010 13.1

63. The results show positive NPV at both 5 percent and 8 percent discount rates. The subproject was economically justified.

VII. Economic Analysis of the Overall Project

64. The overall economic analysis considers all quantifiable project benefits and all project costs. This includes the costs of supporting activities such as project coordination, studies, and environmental and social assessment. Table 4.15 presents the results.

Table 4.15. Summary of the Results of the Economic Analysis of the Overall Project NPV (US$) NPV (US$) Assumption EIRR (Percentage) Discount Rate of 8 percent Discount Rate of 5 percent Baseline scenario 541,958,802 914,826,012 27.6

65. Although the EIRR is lower than the expectations at appraisal which was estimated at 51 percent, the results indicate a good economic performance of the project even when all supporting costs are included.

C. Conclusion

66. At 5 percent and 8 percent discount rates, the analysis shows that the project had positive NPVs in subprojects in all the countries except for the irrigation subproject in Guinea. Apart from the lowland development subproject in Guinea, all the subprojects analyzed exhibited an EIRR higher than 5 percent, ranging from 11.3 percent to 75.5 percent. However, there is significant variability from one subproject to another. Fisheries, fodder production, and income-generating activities are, generally, the most economically performing subprojects. Irrigation infrastructure rehabilitation in Niger was the less economic activity mainly because of the higher-than-expected cost associated with this subproject. The irrigation subproject in Benin exhibited a high performance explained by higher areas developed than initially planned and the choice to grow high-value vegetables. Lowland irrigation subproject in Guinea suffered from two major factors: (a) the high per area investment cost of the irrigation infrastructure; and (b) the moderate increase in rice yield probably due to a lack of appropriate water management knowledge. The overall EIRR of the project is estimated at 27.6 percent, an NPV of US$914,826,012 at 5 percent, and an NPV of US$541,958,802 at 8 percent. Further, sensitivity analysis shows that the EIRR remains economically viable with a 10 percent increase in costs or a 10 percent decrease in benefits. The project remains economically viable even with a combined 20 percent increase in the costs and a 20 percent reduction in benefits with an EIRR of 21 percent.

67. The ICR uses a similar approach and assumptions as the PAD in estimating the benefits from hydropower generation. However, the ICR did not include benefits from Jebba dam since at project closing

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the World Bank financing did not result in incremental energy production at that dam. Assumptions for irrigation and fishery development are also similar, as the methodology relies on projected yields in the PAD and on actual yields in the ICR. For agroforestry and income-generating activities, the economic analysis in the ICR includes benefits associated with increased availability of animal fodder, the reduction of soil erosion, and carbon sequestration. Such benefits, although important, were not explicitly accounted for at appraisal.

Table 4.16. Summary of the ICR CBA Reforestation, Income- Agroforestry, Irrigation Fishery Hydropower generating Overall Project and Fodder Development Development Production Activities Production NPV (US$, IRR NPV (US$, IRR NPV (US$, IRR NPV (US$, IRR NPV (US$, IRR NPV (US$, IRR (%) thousands) (%) thousands) (%) thousands) (%) thousands) (%) thousands) (%) thousands) Guinea 2,006 13.1 — — −3,262 n.a. — — — — — — Mali 105,096 75.5 — — — — — — — — — — Niger 124,042 36.9 — — 2,044 11.3 722.6 18.4 — — — — Benin 63,155 48.2 15,675 52 87, 752 107.9 — — — — — — Nigeria — — — — — — — — 609,280 35.7 — — Overall — — — — — — — — — — 914,826 27.6 project Table 4.17. Summary of the ICR CBA - Sensitivity Analysis of the Overall Project Results NPV (US$, thousands) at 5 percent IRR (%) Discount Rate Sensitivity analysis on costs Costs increase by 10 percent 899,931,377 26.0 Costs increase by 20 percent 885,036,743 24.5 Sensitivity analysis on benefits Benefits decrease by 10 percent 808,448,776 25.8 Benefits decrease by 20 percent 702,071,540 23.8 Combined sensitivity analysis Combined costs increase by 20 672,282,271 21.0 percent and benefits decrease by 20 percent Table 4.18. Key Assumptions used in the CBA Data Type Value Unit Source Nigeria Hydropower Production Assumption on benefits See ‘Benefit’ Client ICR Nigeria section for Nigeria

Benin Reforestation and Agroforestry Total area under agroforestry or reforestation 1064 Ha Client ICR Benin

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Data Type Value Unit Source Average soil erosion in Northern Benin 12.3 t/ha/year Senahoun, Heidhues, and Deybe (1999) Loss in maize yield due to soil erosion 52 kg/ha Diao (2007) Price of maize 165 CFAF/kg LISA - SAP N° 319 Adult height of Anacardium Occidentale 10 m Survival rate of trees 85.6 percent Client ICR Guinea Irrigation Area under irrigation 1,500 ha Client ICR Benin Cropping intensity 2 Client ICR Benin Assumption on benefits See table 4.4 in the Client ICR Benin ‘Benefit’ section for Benin irrigation Income-generating Activities Assumption on benefits See table 4.6 in the Client ICR Benin ‘Benefit’ section for Benin income- generating activities

Niger Reforestation and Agroforestry Total area under agroforestry or reforestation 6310 Ha Client ICR Niger Loss in maize yield due to soil erosion 52 Kg/ha Diao (2007) Price of maize 165 FCFA/kg LISA - SAP N° 319 Density of tress 740 Number/ha Client ICR Niger and team calculation Survival rate of trees 90 Percent Client ICR Niger Irrigation Irrigated area rehabilitated 637 ha Client ICR Niger Yield before the rehabilitation of Djambala 4.5 T/ha Client ICR Niger scheme (t/ha) Yield after the rehabilitation of the Djambala 6.7 T/ha Client ICR Niger scheme (t/ha) Price of rice (paddy) farmgate 120,000 FCFA/T Bulletin économique sur le marché des céréales en Cropping intensity 1.89 Client ICR Niger

Fodder price 112 FCFA/kg Jarial (2017) Fisheries Assumption on benefits See table 4.9 in the Client ICR Niger ‘Benefit’ section for Niger fisheries

Mali

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Data Type Value Unit Source Fodder Production Area cultivated 720 ha Client ICR Mali Yield of bourgou ‘Echinochloa stagnina’ 20 to 30 (25 is t/ha Zwart et al. (2006); used here) Reca (2018) Production costs of bourgou 300,000 CFAF/ha Agence Nationale de la Météorologie (2012) Proportion of green to dry matter 20 Percent RECA (2018) Costs for cutting, drying, and storing bourgou 770,000 CFAF/ha RECA (2018) Price of dried bourgou 1,500 CFAF/kg RECA (2018)

Guinea Lowland Irrigation Development Area under irrigation 450 ha Client ICR Guinea Yield without project 3 t/ha Client ICR Guinea Yield with project 3.5 t/ha Client ICR Guinea Paddy rice price 6000 FGN/kg Guinée (2017)

Agroforestry Area under agroforestry 500 ha Client ICR Guinea Representative tree species Acacia Client ICR Guinea Density of trees 100 100 trees/ha Client ICR Guinea and ICR team estimation Survival rate of trees 50 Percent Client ICR Guinea

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ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS

Comments on the draft ICR were received from the Niger Basin Authority.

There was some additional information and clarifications provided which were addressed and integrated into the present version of the report. The Borrower also suggested to upgrade the rating of the PDO outcome “Enhance regional development of water resources in the Niger Basin” from Substantial to High. Given the reasons provided in the ICR and OPCS evaluation methodology, the team believes that ‘Substantial’ is more appropriate.

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ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS

1. Project Appraisal Document on Five Proposed Credits/Grants, Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management (WRDSEM) Project, May 3, 2007.

2. Niger River Basin Authority, Niger Basin WRDSEM Project Implementation Manual, July 2007.

3. Project Information Document, NB-WRDSEMP, Appraisal Stage, Report № 43582, June 7, 2007.

4. Operations Policy and Country Services, Implementation Completion and Results Report, Guidelines, August 2006, updated October 5, 2011.

5. Niger Basin WRDSEM project’s Implementation Status and Reports, December 2008–December 2017.

6. New Country Partnership Strategy in Nigeria Set to Spur Growth, Less Poverty, World Bank paper, May 2014.

7. Regional Integration Assistance Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa, Report No. 43022-AFR, IDA and IBRD, March 2008.

8. Country Partnership Strategy FY13–17 for the Republic of Benin; March 5, 2013.

9. Country Partnership Strategy FY14–17 for Guinea; September 4, 2013.

10. Country Partnership Framework FY16–19 for the Republic of Mali; November 3, 2015.

11. Country Partnership Strategy FY13–16 for the Republic of Niger; March 29, 2013.

12. Country Partnership Strategy FY14–17 for the Federal Republic of Nigeria; March 13, 2014.

13. Financing Agreement, NB-WRDSEMP (Credit No. 4348-UNI), July 26, 2007.

14. Niger Basin – WRDSEM project, Amendment to the Financing Agreement (Credit No. 4348-UNI), letter to Hon. Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Minister of Finance Federal Republic of Nigeria from Marie Francoise Marie-Nelly, Country Director, Nigeria, IDA, 29 December 2014.

15. Restructuring Paper on a proposed restructuring of Niger Basin – WRDSEM Project, Report No. 61998-AFR, June 6, 2011.

16. Restructuring Paper on a proposed restructuring of NB-WRDSEMP, Report No. RESI-16175, December 12, 2014.

17. Subsidiary Agreement to the Financing Agreement (Credit No. 4348-UNI), July 26, 2007.

18. Service Contract between NBA and PHCN (TCN), July 26, 2007.

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19. Annual Work Plan and Budgets for 2012 to 2016 inclusive.

20. Procurement Plans and Procurement Reviews for 2012 to 2016 inclusive.

21. “Status of WRDSEMP Contract - February 29, 2016”, May 2016.

22. Niger Basin WRDSEM project APL1 FM and Procurement reports.

23. ICR of Senegal River Basin multi-purpose water resources development project, APL, September 25, 2013.

24. ICR of Dam Operational Improvement and Safety Project (DOISP) For Indonesia, October 2016.

25. BRL study on the “Sustainable Development Action Plan of the Niger Basin” – 2007.

26. Client ICRs on Niger Basin WRDSEM PL1 of Niger – December 2015, Nigeria – June 2016, Mali – August 2017, Guinea – December 2017 and Benin – July 2016.

27. Agence Nationale de la Météorologie. 2012. Evaluation des besoins technologiques et plan d’action technologique d’adaptation aux changements climatiques au mali. 103p.

28. African Cashew Initiative. 2010. Analysis of the Benin Cashew Sector Value Chain.

29. Aymeric, R., M. M. Myint, and V. Westerberg. 2015. An economic valuation of sustainable land management through agroforestry in eastern Sudan. Report for the Economics of Land Degradation Initiative by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, Nairobi, Kenya. Available at: www.eld-initiative.org

30. Becker, M., and D. E. Johnson. 2001. Improved water control and crop management effects on lowland rice productivity in West Africa. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 59(2), 119-127.

31. Bulletin économique sur le marché des céréales en Afrique. 2017. Les cereraliers. 13p.

32. Diao, X. 2007. Cost Implications of Agricultural Land Degradation in Ghana. IFPRI Report.

33. ELD Initiative. 2015. Report for policy and decision makers: Reaping economic and environmental benefits from sustainable land management.

34. ELD Initiative. 2015. The value of land: Prosperous lands and positive rewards through sustainable land management. Available at: www.eld-initiative.org

35. Etter, H., T. Gerhartsreiter, and N. Stewart. 2017. Economics of land degradation: achievements and next steps. In International Yearbook of Soil Law and Policy 2016 (pp. 263-281). Springer, Cham.

36. Guinée. 2017. Perspectives sur la sécurité alimentaire.

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The World Bank Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Project (P093806)

37. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon. 2013. Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis.

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