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Upsc Editorial Analysis 10 Aug 2021

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Upsc Editorial Analysis 10 Aug 2021 1 UPSC EDITORIAL ANALYSIS 10 AUG 2021 EDITORIAL 1 SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF DETENTE Topic: General Studies Paper 2 (Regional Issues affecting India’s Interests) Context: • The Persian Gulf is a 990 kilometre-long body of water that separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula. • Around the Seven-member States of the United Nations share the water with the Persian Gulf. • The Strait of Hormuz, the narrowest point of the Gulf region, is only 54 km wide and the main shipping channels that pass through it are 30km-35 km wide and 8km-12 km wide. • The strait plays an important role in the transportation of crude oil and LNG to global markets. • Before the 1970s, the Persian Gulf was a British lake. Later, the withdrawal of the British propelled the United States to step in as the guarantor of the sub-region with its Twin- Pillars of Iran-Saudi Arabia policy. • In 1976, in the Muscat Conference, Oman struggled with Baathist Iraq. • Later, Bilateral efforts were made by King Faisal of Saudi Arabia and the Shah of Iran; wherein Saudi King initiated Islamic solidarity policy in 1964 and visited Iran in December 1965. • During the 1960s Iranian-Saudi friendship was a perfect example of Islamic brotherhood and neighbourly relations and both were active members of the Five Power ‘Safari Club’ for intelligence sharing. 2 Impact of unrest • 1978-79 Iranian Revolution, disturbed the strategic balance in the region and put an end to regional consensus on security issues. • Further, during the period of the Iraq-Iran war, the Gulf monarchies and their western supporters wanted to destabilize the revolutionary regime. • In 1981, The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was formed to reassure the Gulf sheikhdoms. • In 1996, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami and Saudi Defence Minister entered a defence pact that would be mutually beneficial. • In 1997, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah attended the Islamic Summit conference in Tehran, which was a good sign of removing misunderstandings between both. • However, later when the issues relating to Syria and Hezbollah on the one side and the Saudi intervention in Yemen on the other stopped the friendly relationship between both sides. • Yemen was critical to Saudi for its perceptions of national security. • In the 1930s when King Abdulaziz ibn Saud was expanding the boundaries of the Kingdom of Najd to incorporate the western and southern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, the Conflict developed between Saudi and Yemen over the southern region of Najran and resulted in a Saudi victory and Treaty of 1934. • Thus, there was peace between Yemen and Saudi, however later during the Egyptian Revolution and Gamal Abdel Nasser’s ‘intoxicating blend of nationalism and radicalism’ led to the Yemeni coup of 1962. • The rising power of Egypt invaded Yemen and due to which Saudi-Egyptian relations were spoiled and it lasted till the Arab-Israeli war of 1967. • The United States took advantage of the standoffs between various gulf regions and provided military assistance programmes and later in the 1990s, during the Kuwait war it stationed U.S. troops. The key issues 1. In recent years there have Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf littoral. 2.Many Gulf states have been adversely affected due to historically low oil prices and by the pandemic COVID-19. 3. Non Operation of The GCC council as the focus on the boycott of Qatar is now being reversed. 4. Between United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia relationship tension have arisen. 5. The Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain have played a major role in the Arab-Israeli calculus in the Persian Gulf States and the wider Arab world. • The U.S has decided to withdraw forces from Afghanistan and reduce its commitments in Iraq is based on the view that the American ground-force base in Kuwait, the Fifth Fleet naval base in Bahrain, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE and the access arrangements in Oman are more than enough for the U.S to have a politically and financially sustainable military presence in the Gulf region. • Saudi has been affected the most during the pandemic, due to a fall in demand for oil, its failure to subdue the Houthis and to close the Yemen conflict on their terms. 3 • The U.S. has failed to subdue Iran on its terms and now the Saudi Crown Prince’s is trying to have good relations with Iran and exploring various options with Iran. Security is the concern • The Saudi Arabia-Iran sectarian orientation to the divide has not worked well for the security in the Gulf littoral and the security of the waterway for the transportation of their hydrocarbon exports and also spoiled the peace between various Gulf states. Steps to be Taken: • To maintain peace in the region, freedom of access to Gulf waters through the Strait of Hormuz; freedom of commercial shipping and trade to all Gulf states in international waters of the Persian Gulf; Freedom to Gulf states to exploit hydrocarbons and other natural resources and export them. • Steps must also be taken to ensure conditions of peace and stability in the Individual Gulf States, and ensure that regional or extra-regional conditions do not affect this freedom. Conclusion ✓ The recent talks between Riyadh and Tehran show a positive sign of cooperation among Gulf states which would help in stability, freedom of navigation and safety of sea lanes in the Gulf littoral. Reference: Saudi Arabia, Iran and the possibilities of détente: https://thg.page.link/mrsFpGazebgTQN216 EDITORIAL 2 ROAD AHEAD FROM GOGRA: ON INDIA - CHINA DISENGAGEMENT PROCESS Topic: General Studies Paper 2 (India and Its Neighborhood) Context: • After several talks between India and China, one more step has been taken to restore peace and normalcy on the LAC by disengaging at Gogra. • However, it is only one step, the chances of returning to pre-2020 status quo before the Galwan attack seems uncertain. 4 Process of Disengagement: • Around 12 rounds of military-level talks have taken place on both sides to disengage and put in place buffer zones in the Galwan Valley. • Galwan attack marked the worst violence since 1967. • After Pangong Lake, The recent disengagement process has taken place at Patrolling Point 17(PP17) at Gogra. • In the next round of Military talks, PP15 in Hot Springs, Demchok, where China has invaded in smaller numbers when compared to Pangong Lake, may be resolved. • However, no solution has been reached for Depsang plains, where the Chinese side has been blocking Indian patrols. • The buffer zone model, which has led to peace, should only be considered as a temporary measure as, if it's permanent, it would prevent India from enforcing its territorial claims and favour China, which can deploy faster in larger numbers owing to the more favourable terrain and better logistics. • Steps need to be taken for full de-escalation, and a withdrawal of various forward deployments that have come up close to the LAC. • India has sent a strong message that it's ready for the long haul and will not return to normalcy without full restoration of normalcy on the borders. • After the 2017 Doklam crisis, China has steadily increased its around 13 permanent airbases and air defence units closer to the LAC, according to an analysis of satellite images from Stratfor. • Seeing this, India too has been rapidly upgrading its infrastructure to close the gap. • As a result, both India and China have enhanced their security dynamic along the LAC. 5 • There is a need for new protocols and confidence-building measures so that both sides gradually resume patrolling in the buffer zones. Conclusion: ✓ Several interventions by China and the violence in recent years have put to doubts the validity of various agreements entered for peace at the border. ✓ There is a need for a long-lasting solution to ensure peace along the LAC, instead of temporary peace by Military talks, only then one can assure peace and stability in the region otherwise it would be a situation of invasion and attack several times. Reference: The road ahead from Gogra: on India-China disengagement process: https://thg.page.link/KtXA9uTwoR8ZkiQA9 .
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