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EASTERN PARTNERSHIP INDEX 2015-2016 Charting Progress in European Integration, Democratic Reforms, and Sustainable Development

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EASTERN PARTNERSHIP INDEX 2015-2016 Charting Progress in European Integration, Democratic Reforms, and Sustainable Development EASTERN PARTNERSHIP INDEX 2015-2016 Charting Progress in European Integration, Democratic Reforms, and Sustainable Development www.eap-index.eu Eastern Partnership Index 2015-2016. Charting Progress in European Integration, Democratic Reforms, and Sustainable Development . © Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum December 2017 ISBN 978-2-930970-00-4 EAN 9782930970004 This publication was written with the support of the Open Society Foundations, the International Renaissance Foundation, Ukraine, the European Union, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic. EASTERN PARTNERSHIP INDEX 2015-2016 Charting Progress in European Integration, Democratic Reforms, and Sustainable Development Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum This report was written by: Editor in Chief: Jeff Lovitt Core team: Martin Brusis Iryna Solonenko Rasa Uzdavinyte Expert analysts: Gubad Ibadoglu Many experts and colleagues contributed to Manana Kochladze different stages of the Eastern Partnership Index Boris Navasardyan 2015-2016 (referred to as the Index throughout Elena Prohnițchi this publication). We are very grateful to all the Andrei Yahorau experts listed at the end of this publication, who Sergiy Solodkyy worked side by side with us on this edition of the Denis Cenușă Index. We also benefited greatly from thoughtful Anna Golubovska-Onisimova comments and recommendations made by Tamar Khidasheli Věra Řiháčková and the support of Natalia Veronika Movchan Yerashevich. Rasa Uzdavinyte Kateryna Zarembo Peer reviewers: Vytis Jurkonis Leila Alieva Last, but not least, we would like to thank Irakli Porchkhidze Open Society Foundations, the International Valentina Gevorgyan Renaissance Foundation, Ukraine, the European Mihai Popșoi Union, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iryna Solonenko the Czech Republic for the financial support that made this publication possible. Project manager: Rasa Uzdavinyte Table of Contents The Eastern Partnership in 2015-2016: A Long Road to Sustainable Democratic Institutions 9 What is the Eastern Partnership Index? 16 The Two Dimensions of the Index 20 The 2015-2016 Index - Key Results at a Glance 22 Country Assessments 31 Moldova 32 Georgia 42 Ukraine 54 Armenia 62 Azerbaijan 72 Belarus 82 Sector Assessments 91 Approximation Deep and Sustainable Democracy (Democracy & Human Rights) 92 EU Integration and Convergence 103 Sustainable Development 109 Linkage International Security, Political Dialogue and Co-operation 112 Sectoral Cooperation and Trade Flows 115 Citizens in Europe 119 Methodology of the Index 120 List of Experts 124 The Eastern Partnership in 2015-2016: A Long Road to Sustainable Democratic Institutions TOP CHALLENGES FOR 2018 • The governments of the Eastern Partnership countries must focus on institutionalising reforms, making them sustainable and less dependent on changes in political power and less susceptible to political instability; • The EU should reinforce support and incentives to implementation of the Association Agreements in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, with even greater emphasis on promotion of an independent judiciary and prosecution service, and establishment of independent agencies to tackle corruption; • The EU’s differentiated approach must preserve support to civil society and tolerate no compromise on support for the democratic and pro-European aspirations of the societies of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus; • The EU should play a more proactive role in fostering a joint EU response to the long-term security threat posed by Russia to the EU- Russia neighbourhood and to Europe as a whole. A WINDOW FOR respectively Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus REFORMS, BUT TOUGH and the EU. The declaration also reaffirmed that CHALLENGES AHEAD “the EU’s incentive-based approach (‘more-for- more’) will continue to benefit those partners 1 The joint declaration of the Eastern Partnership most engaged in reforms”. Summit, agreed in Brussels on 24 November 2017, welcomed the approach of “strengthened Since the last Eastern Partnership Index differentiation in bilateral relations” between was published in March 2015, the Eastern the EU and the respective Eastern Partnership Partnership (EaP) region has seen important (EaP) countries. developments and trends. This differentiation took its clearest shape in First, the incentive-based approach towards the distinction between those three countries the three AA signatory countries has laid the – Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine – that signed basis for a process that is set to continue for Association Agreements (AAs) with the EU, many years to come. With the ratification and ushering in a much closer stage of integration, 1 Eastern Partnership Summit - Joint Declaration, European and the more fluid relations evident in various Council, 24 November 2017, http://www.consilium. agreements and forms of engagement between europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/11/24/eastern- partnership-summit-joint-declaration/ 9 EASTERN PARTNERSHIP INDEX 2015-2016 the entry into force of AAs, including Deep and On the other hand, Ukraine, which saw an Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs), unprecedented monopolisation of power between the EU and respectively Ukraine, under the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych, Moldova and Georgia, both the EU and these has managed since the Revolution of Dignity countries committed themselves to a long-term in 2014 to lay the foundations for the path deepening of their ties. towards democracy and good governance with the initiation of a number of important The AAs extend across a range of policy areas, reforms. with provisions that will impact many aspects of political, economic, and social life in the The relative balance of power between reform- three countries. For the medium and long run, oriented groups in society and forces and the agreements amount to a comprehensive factors holding back, or turning back, reforms charter for economic modernisation and good remains very fragile across the region. governance, with a large degree of reliance on the adoption of EU regulatory norms and Thirdly, Russia has become a more important technical standards, mostly over periods of factor in undermining security in the region. three to seven years. While Russia had served as a destabilising factor before and was instrumental in provoking The EU on its part, while gradually integrating frozen conflicts in the region, the annexation Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine into its of Crimea put into question the entire post- internal market, will provide aid to work on war international order. The conflict in Eastern strengthening the rule of law, implementing Ukraine, which has been continuously sustained crucial judicial reforms, fighting the impact by Russia, undermines the security order of both small-scale and high-level corruption, throughout Europe. ensuring respect for human rights, and reinforcing democratic institutions. The As well as military means, Russia still possesses agreements do not imply commitments to full numerous scope for leverage to undermine the accession to the EU, but neither is that excluded process of state-building and democratisation over the longer run. in the EU-Russia neighbourhood through supporting “friendly” political parties, Moldovan citizens have enjoyed visa-free travel establishing an “alternative civil society”, or to the Schengen countries since April 2014, spreading disinformation through the media and were joined by Georgians and Ukrainians and groups of societies in EaP countries prone in March and June 2017 respectively. This to paternalistic thinking. development has put the countries firmly on track to foster closer people-to-people contacts This interference poses a challenge for EU with EU citizens, a window of opportunity still modernisation efforts in the region. The denied to citizens of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and consensus of public and elite opinion in Belarus. favour of a democratic EU-oriented trajectory is difficult to sustain unless the respective Secondly, however, developments over the countries’ political leadership – both in past few years have shown that none of government and opposition – not only share a the EaP countries can lay claim to having commitment to democracy and the rule of law, sustainable democratic institutions. Periods but also show sustained integrity in fighting of relative liberalisation have been replaced by corruption and separating business from more authoritarian situations and vice-versa. politics. All the six countries have struggled to Corruption, particularly at the highest level, has overcome this challenge. continued to be a pervasive problem. If anything, all six countries have been rather volatile. For instance, Moldova, which after 2009 was seen as a poster child in the region, has since 2015 been plagued by instability, a high degree of polarisation in society, and flagrant “state capture” by business groupings. 10 SIX COUNTRIES, Commission highlighted the lack of consensus MANY STREAMS around the constitutional reforms. At a time when Azerbaijan was clamping Given the weakness of the political opposition, down on civil liberties – arresting civil society there are concerns that the changes – which representatives, independent journalists, and include measures to further weaken the powers opposition politicians on trumped up charges – of the President – might erode the system of Belarus released nearly all its political prisoners checks and balances in the country. and began to seek a rapprochement with the EU as a part of its balancing act between
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