ence is that the sensitivity of the climate Stephen Schneider to carbon dioxide will turn out to be at the low end of the IPCC uncertainty range—which is for a warming of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C if carbon dioxide were to GLOBAL WARMING: double and be held fixed over time. Emissions scenarios, according to NEGLECTING THE COMPLEXITIES the IPCC, fall into six “equally sound” alternative paths. These paths span a or three decades, I have Measuring the Real State of the World. doubling in carbon dioxide concentra- been debating alternative A “skeptical environmentalist” is cer- tions in 2100 up to more than tripling solutions for sustainable tainly the best kind, I mused, because and well beyond tripling in the 22nd development with thou- uncertainties are so endemic in these century. Lomborg, however, dismisses sands of fellow scientists complex problems that suffer from miss- all but the lowest of the scenarios: and policy analysts—ex- ing data, incomplete theory and nonlin- “Temperatures will increase much less F changes carried out in ear interactions. But the “real state of the than the maximum estimates from myriad articles and formal meetings. world”—that is a high bar to set, given IPCC—it is likely that the temperature Despite all that, I readily confess a lin- the large range of plausible outcomes. will be at or below the B1 estimate [the gering frustration: uncertainties so infuse And who is Lomborg, I wondered, lowest emissions scenario] (less than 2° the issue of that it is still and why haven’t I come across him at C in 2100) and the temperature will cer- impossible to rule out either mild or cat- any of the meetings where the usual sus- tainly not increase even further into the astrophic outcomes, let alone provide pects debate costs, benefits, extinction twenty-second century.” confident probabilities for all the claims rates, or cloud feed- Cost-benefit calculations show that and counterclaims made about environ- back? I couldn’t recall reading any sci- although the benefits of avoiding cli- mental problems. entific or policy contributions from him mate change could be substantial ($5 Even the most credible international either. But there was this massive 515- trillion is the single figure Lomborg assessment body, the Intergovernmental page tome with a whopping 2,930 end- cites), this is not worth the cost to the Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has notes to wade through. On page xx of economy of trying to constrain fossil- refused to attempt subjective probabilis- his preface, Lomborg admits, “I am not fuel emissions (a $3-trillion to $33-tril- tic estimates of future temperatures. myself an expert as regards environmen- lion range he pulls from the economics This has forced politicians to make their tal problems”—truer words are not literature). Asymmetrically, no range is own guesses about the likelihood of var- found in the rest of the book, as I’ll soon given for the climate damages. ious degrees of global warming. Will illustrate. I will report primarily on the The , which caps in- temperatures in 2100 increase by 1.4 thick global warming chapter and its dustrialized countries’ output of green- degrees Celsius or by 5.8? The differ- 600-plus endnotes. That kind of dead- house gases, is too expensive. It would ence means relatively adaptable changes weight of detail alone conjures at least reduce warming in 2100 by only a few or very damaging ones. the trappings of comprehensive and tenths of a degree—“putting off the tem- Against this background of frustra- careful scholarship. So how does the re- perature increase just six years.” This tion, I began increasingly to hear that a ality of the text hold up to the pretense? number, though, is based on a straw-

young Danish statistician in a political I’m sure you can already guess, but let me man policy that nobody has seriously Corbis science department, Bjørn Lomborg, give some examples to make clear what I proposed: Lomborg extrapolates the had applied his skills in statistics to bet- learned by reading. Kyoto Protocol, which is applicable ter determine how serious environmen- The climate chapter makes four ba- only up to 2012, as the world’s sole cli- tal problems are. Of course, I was anx- sic arguments: mate policy for another nine decades. ious to see this highly publicized contri- Climate science is very uncertain, Before providing specifics of why I

bution—The Skeptical Environmentalist: but nonetheless the real state of the sci- believe each of these assertions is fatally RICHARD HAMILTON SMITH flawed, I should say something about ance with the IPCC, other national cli- tion would likely increase estimates of Lomborg’s methods. First, most of his mate assessments and most recent stud- climate sensitivity by a factor of several. nearly 3,000 citations are to secondary ies in the field of climate science. As a final example, he quotes a con- literature and media articles. Moreover, Now let us look in more detail at troversial hypothesis from Danish cloud even when cited, the peer-reviewed arti- the four major arguments he makes in physicists that solar magnetic events cles come elliptically from those studies this chapter. modulate cosmic rays and produce “a that support his rosy view that only the Climate science. A typical example clear connection between global low- low end of the uncertainty ranges will be of Lomborg’s method is his paraphrase level cloud cover and incoming cosmic plausible. IPCC authors, in contrast, of a secondary source in reporting a radiation.” The Danish researchers use Lomborg admits, “I am not myself an expert as regards ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS”—truer words are not found in the rest of the book. were subjected to three rounds of review 1989 Hadley Center paper in the jour- this hypothesis to support an alternative by hundreds of outside experts. They nal Nature in which the researchers make to carbon dioxide for explaining recent didn’t have the luxury of reporting pri- modifications to their climate model: climate change. Lomborg fails to dis- marily from the part of the community “The programmers then improved the cuss—and I haven’t seen it treated by that agrees with their individual views. cloud parameterizations in two places, the authors of that speculative theory ei- Second, it is ironic that in a popular and the model reacted by reducing its ther—what such purported changes to book by a statistician one can’t find a temperature estimate from 5.2° C to this cloud cover have done to the radia- clear discussion of the distinction among 1.9° C.” Had this been first-rate scholar- tive balance of the . Increasing different types of probabilities, such as ship, Lomborg would have consulted clouds, it has been well known since pa- frequentist and Bayesian (that is, “ob- the original article, in which the conclud- pers by Syukuro Manabe and Richard jective” and “subjective”). He uses the ing sentence of the first paragraph pre- T. Wetherald in 1967 and myself in word “plausible” often, but, curiously sents the authors’ caveat: “Note that al- 1972, can warm or cool the atmosphere for a statistician, he never attaches any though the revised cloud scheme is more depending on the height of the cloud probability to what is “plausible.” The detailed it is not necessarily more accu- tops, the reflectivity of the underlying Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, rate than the less sophisticated scheme.” surface, the season and the latitude. The on the other hand, explicitly confronted In a similar vein, he cites Richard S. reason the IPCC discounts this theory is the need to quantify all confidence Lindzen’s controversial stabilizing feed- that its advocates have not demonstrat- terms. Working Group I, for example, back, or “iris effect,” as evidence that ed any radiative forcing sufficient to gave the term “likely” a 66 to 90 per- the IPCC climate sensitivity range match that of much more parsimonious cent chance of occurring. Although the should be reduced by a factor of almost theories, such as anthropogenic forcing. IPCC gives a wide range for most of its three. He fails either to understand this Emissions scenarios. Lomborg as- projections, Lomborg generally dismiss- mechanism or to tell us that it is based serts that over the next several decades es these ranges, focusing on the least se- on only a few years of data in a small new, improved solar machines and oth- rious outcomes. Not so much as one part of one . Extrapolating this er renewable technologies will crowd probability is offered for the chance of a small sample of data to the entire globe fossil fuels off the market. This will be dangerous outcome, yet he makes a firm is like extrapolating the strong destabi- done so efficiently that the IPCC scenar- assertion that climate “will certainly” lizing feedback over midcontinental ios vastly overestimate the chance for not go beyond 2 degrees C warming in landmasses as snow melts in the major increases in carbon dioxide. How the 22nd century—a conclusion at vari- spring—such an inappropriate projec- I wish this would turn out to be true! But wishes aren’t analysis. One study is decision stopped IPCC from looking at rise in sea level driving small-island in- cited; ignored is the huge body of eco- the total cost-benefit of global warm- habitants from traditional homelands), nomics work he later accepts to estimate ing.” (As an aside, I should mention that and likely changes to climatic extremes a range of costs if we were to implement it is strange he chose to cite the penulti- and variability. Then again, Lomborg emissions controls. In fact, most of these mate and pre-approval draft report in cites only one value for climate dam- economists strongly believe high emis- this case but didn’t mention the very ages—$5 trillion—even though the same sions are quite likely: they usually proj- first item in the approved summary— economics papers he refers to for costs ect carbon dioxide doubling to tripling that recent temperature trends have of climate policy generally acknowledge It is precisely because the responsible scientific community cannot rule out CATASTROPHIC OUTCOMES that climate mitigation policies are seriously proposed.

(or more) as “optimal” economic poli- caused a discernible effect on plants and that climate damages can vary from cy. I have attacked this literature for animals. Even more puzzling is his fail- benefits up to catastrophic losses. failing to point out that climate policies ure to discuss ecological impacts in gen- It is precisely because the responsible that raise the price of conventional fuels eral, focusing instead on health and scientific community cannot rule out spur investments in alternative agriculture, sectors he thinks won’t be such catastrophic outcomes at a high systems. But such incentives need poli- much harmed by climate change of the level of confidence that climate mitiga- cies first—and Lomborg opposes those minuscule amount he predicts.) tion polices are seriously proposed. And very policies. No credible analyst can The government representatives to give one number—rather than a broad just assert that a fossil-fuel-intensive sce- downgraded aggregate cost-benefit stud- range—for avoided climate damages de- nario is not plausible—and, typically, he ies for a reason: these studies fail to con- fies explanation, especially when he does gives no probability that it might occur. sider so many categories of damages give a range for climate policy costs. This Cost-benefit calculations. Lomborg’s held to be important by political leaders range, however, is based on the eco- most egregious distortions and poorest as to render them just a guideline on mar- nomics literature but ignores the find- analyses are his citations of cost-benefit ket-sector transactions, not the “total ings of engineers. Engineers dispute the calculations. First, he chides the govern- cost-benefit” analysis Lomborg wants. A economists’ typical estimates because ments that modified the penultimate total analysis would have to include the the economists fail to take into account draft of the report from IPCC’s Work- value of species lost, crucial preexisting market imperfections such ing Group II. These modifications down- services degraded, inequity created by as energy-inefficient machines, houses graded the significance of economic stud- the poor being hurt more than the rich and processes. These engineering stud- ies that aggregate climate change dam- (which Lomborg does acknowledge), ies, including a famous one by five U.S. ages. Lomborg says: “A political quality of reduced (for example, a Department of Energy laboratories— hardly environmental radicals—suggest that climate policies that provide incen- tives to replace inefficient equipment with more efficient state-of-the-art prod- ucts could actually reduce some emis- sions at below-zero costs. The Kyoto Protocol. Lomborg’s creation of a 100-year regime for a decade-long protocol is a distortion of the climate policy process. Every IPCC report has noted that carbon dioxide emissions need to be cut by more than 50 percent below most baseline projec- tions to avoid large increases in concen- Minden Pictures tration in the late 21st and 22nd cen- turies. Most analysts know “Kyoto ex- tended” can’t make such large cuts and

that both developed and developing na- JIM BRANDENBURG

68 JANUARY 2002 tions will have to fashion cooperative and cost-effective solutions over time. John P. Holdren This will take a great deal of learning-by- doing: international cooperation is not a common experience. Kyoto is a starting point. And yet Lomborg, with his cre- ENERGY: ation of a straw-man 100-year projec- tion, would squash even this first step. ASKING THE WRONG QUESTION So what then is “the real state of the world”? Clearly, it isn’t knowable in omborg’s chapter on energy cov- The Road Not Taken”; by Paul R. and traditional statistical terms, even though ers a scant 19 pages. It is Anne H. Ehrlich and me in our 1977 subjective estimates can be responsibly devoted almost entirely to college textbook Ecoscience; and so on. offered. The ranges presented by the attacking the belief that So whom is Lomborg so resounding- IPCC in its peer-reviewed reports give the world is running out ly refuting with his treatise on the abun- the best snapshot of the real state of cli- of energy, a belief that dance of world energy ? It mate change: we could be lucky and see L Lomborg appears to re- would seem that his targets are pundits a mild effect or unlucky and get the cat- gard as part of the “environmental (such as the correspondents for E maga- astrophic outcomes. The IPCC frames litany” but that few if any environmen- zine and CNN cited at the opening of the issue as a risk-management decision talists actually hold. What environmen- this chapter) and professional analysts about hedging. It is not the everything- talists mainly say on this topic is not that (although only a few of these are cited, will-turn-out-fine affair that Lomborg we are running out of energy but that we and those very selectively) who have ar- would have us believe. are running out of environment—that is, gued not that the world is running out For such an interdisciplinary topic, running out of the capacity of air, , of energy altogether but only that it the publisher would have been wise to and biota to absorb, without intoler- might be running out of cheap oil. Lom- ask natural scientists as well as social sci- able consequences for human well-being, borg’s dismissive rhetoric notwithstand- entists to review the manuscript, which the effects of energy extraction, trans- ing, this is not a silly question, nor one was published by the social science side port, transformation and use. They also with an easy answer. of the house. It’s not surprising that the argue that we are running out of the Oil is the most versatile and currently reviewers failed to spot Lomborg’s un- ability to manage other risks of energy the most valuable of the conventional balanced presentation of the natural sci- supply, such as the political and eco- fossil fuels that have long provided the ence, given the complexity of the many nomic dangers of overdependence on bulk of civilization’s energy, and it re- intertwining fields. But that the natural Middle East oil and the risk that nuclear mains today the largest contributor to scientists weren’t asked is a serious omis- energy systems will leak weapons mate- world energy supply (accounting for sion for a respectable publisher such as rials and expertise into the hands of pro- nearly the whole of energy used for Cambridge University Press. liferation-prone nations or terrorists. transport, besides other roles). But the Unfortunately, angry reviews such That “the energy problem” is not recoverable conventional resources of as this one will be the result. Worse still, primarily a matter of depletion of re- oil are believed (on substantial evi- many laypeople and policymakers won’t sources in any global sense but rather of dence) to be far smaller than those of see the reviews and could well be tricked environmental impacts and sociopoliti- coal and probably also smaller than into thinking thousands of citations and cal risks—and, potentially, of rising those of ; the bulk of these hundreds of pages constitute balanced monetary costs for energy when its en- resources appears to lie in the politically scholarship. A better rule of thumb is to vironmental and sociopolitical hazards volatile Middle East; much of the rest see who talks in ranges and subjective are adequately internalized and insured lies offshore and in other difficult or en- probabilities and to beware of the myth against—has in fact been the main- vironmentally fragile locations; and it is busters and “truth tellers.” stream environmentalist position for likely that the most abundant potential decades. It was, for example, the posi- replacements for conventional oil will Stephen Schneider, professor in the tion I elucidated in the 1971 Sierra Club be more expensive than oil has been. department of biological sciences and “Battlebook” Energy (co-authored with For all these reasons, concerns about senior fellow at the Institute for Philip Herrera, then the environment declining availability and rising prices International Studies at Stanford editor for Time). It was also the position have long been more salient for oil than University, is editor of Climatic Change elaborated on by the Energy Policy Proj- for the other fossil fuels. There is, ac- and the Encyclopedia of Climate and ect of the Ford Foundation in the pio- cordingly, a serious technical literature Weather and lead author of several neering 1974 report A Time to Choose; (produced mainly by geologists and IPCC chapters and the IPCC guidance by Amory Lovins in his influential 1976 economists) exploring the questions of paper on uncertainties. Foreign Affairs article “Energy Strategy: when world oil production will peak

www.sciam.com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 69 and begin to decline and what the price ready found and still to be found that just the kinds of errors he claims are of oil might be in 2010, 2030 or 2050, will be exploitable with future technolo- pervasive in the writings of environmen- with considerable disagreement among gies at potentially higher future prices). talists—as well as other elementary informed professionals on the answers. And, while noting that most of the blunders of quantitative manipulation Lomborg gets right the basic point world’s lie in the Middle East and presentation that no self-respecting that the dominance of oil in the world en- (and failing to note, having not even in- statistician ought to commit. ergy market will end not because no oil is troduced the concept, that a still larger He tells us correctly, for example, left in the ground but because other ener- share of remaining ultimately recover- that the world has huge resources of coal, What environmentalists mainly say on this topic is not that we are running out of energy but that we are RUNNING OUT OF ENVIRONMENT.

gy sources have become more attractive able resources is thought to lie there), he but in observing that “it is presumed that relative to oil. But he seems not to rec- placidly informs us that it is “imperative there is sufficient coal for well beyond ognize that the transition from oil to oth- for our future energy supply that this re- the next 1,500 years” he says nothing er sources will not necessarily be smooth gion remains reasonably peaceful,” as if about the rate of coal use for which this or occur at prices as low as those enjoyed that observation did not undermine any conclusion might obtain. Concerning the by oil consumers today. Indeed, while basis for complacency. (At this juncture, environmental questions that increased ridiculing the position that the world’s one of his 2,930 footnotes helpfully adds reliance on coal would raise, he writes heavy oil dependence may again prove that this peace imperative for the Middle the following: “Typically, coal pollutes problematic in our lifetimes, he shows East was “one of the background rea- quite a lot, but in developed economies no sign of understanding (or no interest sons for the Gulf War”!) switches to low-sulfur coal, scrubbers in communicating) why there is real de- Lomborg’s treatment of energy re- and other air- control devices bate among serious people about this. sources other than oil is not much bet- have today removed the vast part of sul- Lomborg does not so much as offer ter. He is correct in his basic proposition fur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide emis- his readers a clear explanation of the that resources of coal, , nuclear sions.” To the contrary, data readily distinction—crucial to understanding fuels and are immense available on the Web in the Environ- arguments about depletion—between (which few environmentalists—and no mental Protection Agency report Na- “proved reserves” (referring to material well-informed ones—dispute). But his tional Air Pollutant Emission Trends that has already been found and is ex- handling of the technical, economic and 1900–1998 reveal that U.S. emissions ploitable at a profit at today’s prices, us- environmental factors that will govern of nitrogen oxides from coal-burning ing today’s technologies) and “remain- the circumstances and quantities in electric power plants were 6.1 million ing ultimately recoverable resources” which these resources might actually be short tons in 1980 and 5.4 million (which incorporate estimates of addi- used is superficial, muddled and often short tons in 1998. Emissions of sulfur tional material exploitable with today’s plain wrong. His mistakes include ap- dioxide from U.S. coal-burning power technology at today’s prices but still to parent misreadings or misunderstand- plants were 16.1 million short tons in be found, as well as material both al- ings of statistical data—in other words, 1980 and 12.4 million short tons in FPG International LESTER LEFKOWITZ 1998. These are moderate reductions, safe cars getting more than 50–100 km the other energy-related chapters; suf- welcome but hardly the “vast part” of per liter (120–240 mpg).” (How big fice it to say that I found their level of the emissions. would these cars be, and powered how?) superficiality, selectivity and misunder- Concerning nuclear energy, Lom- He bungles terminology: “Energy can be standing roughly consistent with that of borg tells us that it “constitutes 6 per- stored in hydrogen by catalyzing water.” the energy chapter reviewed here. This cent of global energy production and 20 (He must mean “by electrolyzing water” is a shame. Lomborg is giving skepti- percent in the countries that have nu- or “by catalytic thermochemical decom- cism—and statisticians—a bad name. clear power.” The first figure is right, position of water.”) And he propagates a the second seriously wrong. Nuclear en- variety of conceptual confusions, such as John P. Holdren is the Teresa and John ergy provides a bit less than 10 percent the idea that grid-connected Heinz Professor of Environmental of the primary energy supply in the requires “a sizeable excess capacity” in Policy at the John F. Kennedy School of countries that use this energy source. (It the windmills because these alone “need Government, as well as professor of appears that Lomborg has confused to be able to meet peak demand.” environmental science and public policy contributions to the electricity sector Of course, much of what is most in the department of earth and planetary with contributions to primary energy problematic in the global energy picture sciences, at Harvard University. From supply.) After a muddled discussion of is covered by Lomborg not in his energy 1973 to 1996 he co-led the interdisci- the relation between - chapter but in those that deal with air plinary graduate program in energy and estimates and breeding (which omits al- pollution, acid , and resources at the University of California, together the potentially decisive issue of global warming. The last is devastating- Berkeley. He is a member of the the usability of uranium from seawater), ly critiqued by Stephen Schneider on National Academy of Sciences and the he then barely notes in passing that page 32. There is no space to deal with National Academy of Engineering. breeder reactors “produce large amounts of that can be used for nuclear weapons production, thus John Bongaarts adding to the security concerns.” He should have added that this problem is so significant that it may preclude use of the breeding approach altogether, unless : we develop technologies that make breeding much less susceptible to diver- IGNORING ITS IMPACT sion of the plutonium while not making this approach even more uneconomic round the world, countries are His selective use of statistics gives than it is today. experiencing unprecedent- the reader the impression that the popu- Lomborg has some generally sensible ed demographic change. lation problem is largely behind us. The things to say about the large contribu- The best-known example global rate has in- tions that are possible from increased en- is an enormous expan- deed declined slowly, but absolute ergy end-use efficiency and from renew- sion in human numbers, growth remains close to the very high able energy—on these topics he seems, to A but other important de- levels observed in recent decades, be- his credit, to be more a contributor to mographic trends also affect human cause the population base keeps expand- the “environmental litany” than a critic welfare. People are living longer and ing. today stands at of it. But on these subjects as on the oth- healthier , women are bearing fewer six billion, three billion more than in ers, his treatment is superficial, uneven children, increasing numbers of migrants 1960. According to U.N. projections, and marred by numerous errors and in- are moving to cities and to other coun- another three billion will likely be added felicities. For example, he persistently tries in search of a better life, and popu- by 2050, and population size will even- presents numbers to two- and three-fig- lations are aging. Lomborg’s unbalanced tually reach about 10 billion. ure precision for quantities that cannot presentation of some of these trends and Any discussion of global trends is be known to such accuracy: “43 percent their influences emphasizes the good misleading without taking account of the of American energy use is wasted”; “the news and neglects the bad. Environmen- enormous contrasts among world re- costs of carbon dioxide” emissions are talists who predicted widespread famine gions. Today’s poorest nations in Africa, “0.64 cents per kWh”; plant photosyn- and blamed rapid population growth Asia and Latin America have rapidly thesis is “1,260 EJ” annually. He makes for many of the world’s environmental, growing and young , where- claims, based on single citations and economic and social problems overstat- as in the technologically advanced and without elaboration, that are far from ed their cases. But Lomborg’s view that richer nations in , North Ameri- representative of the literature: “We “the number of people is not the prob- ca and , growth is near zero (or, in know today that it is possible to produce lem” is simply wrong. some cases, even negative), and popula- www.sciam.com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 71 tions are aging quickly. As a conse- example, according to his simple calcula- billion over the past two centuries. And quence, nearly all future global growth tion, the of Egypt diets have improved. Moreover, the will be concentrated in the developing equals a manageable 68 persons per technological optimists are probably countries, where four fifths of the world’s square kilometer, but if the unirrigated correct in claiming that overall world population lives. The projected rise in Egyptian deserts are excluded, density is production can be increased sub- population in the developing world be- an extraordinary 2,000 per square kilo- stantially over the next few decades. Av- tween 2000 and 2025 (from 4.87 to meter. It is therefore not surprising that erage current crop yields are still below 6.72 billion) is actually just as large as Egypt needs to import a large proportion the levels achieved in the most produc- The unprecedented POPULATION EXPANSION in the poorest parts of the world continues LARGELY UNABATED. the record-breaking increase in the past of its food supply. Measured properly, tive countries, and some countries still quarter of a century. The historically population densities have reached ex- have unused potential arable (al- unprecedented population expansion in tremely high levels, particularly in large though much of this is forested). the poorest parts of the world continues countries in Asia and the Middle East. Agricultural expansion, however, will largely unabated. Why does this matter? The effect of be costly, especially if global food pro- Past population growth has led to population trends on human welfare duction has to rise twofold or even three- high population densities in many coun- has been debated for centuries. When fold to accommodate the demand for tries. Lomborg dismisses concerns about the modern expansion of human num- better diets from several billion more this issue based on a simplistic and mis- bers began in the late 18th century, people. The land now used for agricul- leading calculation of density as the ratio Thomas Robert Malthus argued that ture is generally of better quality than of people to all land. Clearly, a more population growth would be limited by unused, potentially cultivable land. Simi- useful and accurate indicator of density food shortages. Lomborg and other larly, existing systems have would be based on the land that remains technological optimists correctly note been built on the most favorable sites. after excluding areas unsuited for hu- that world population has expanded And water is increasingly in short supply man habitation or agriculture, such as much more rapidly than Malthus envi- in many countries as the competition for deserts and inaccessible mountains. For sioned, growing from one billion to six that resource among households, indus- try and agriculture intensifies. Conse- quently, each new increase in food pro- duction is becoming more expensive to obtain. This is especially true if one con- siders environmental costs not reflected in the price of agricultural products. Lomborg’s view that the production of more food is a nonissue rests heavily on the fact that world food prices are low and have declined over time. But this evi- dence is flawed. Massive governmental subsidies to farmers, particularly in the developed countries, keep food prices ar- tificially low. Although technological de- velopments have reduced prices, without these massive subsidies, world food prices would certainly be higher. The environmental cost of what Paul R. and Anne H. Ehrlich describe as “turning the earth into a giant human feedlot” could be severe. A large expan- sion of agriculture to provide growing

populations with improved diets is like- FPG International ly to lead to further , loss

of species, soil , and pollution DIA MAX

72 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN JANUARY 2002 from pesticides and fertilizer runoff as slums are often as adverse as in rural ar- few countries have met this goal, and the farming intensifies and new land is eas. This points to another burden of richest nation on earth, the U.S., is one brought into production. Reducing this rapid population growth: the inability of of the stingiest, giving just 0.1 percent of environmental impact is possible but governments to cope with large additions its GNP. The trend in overseas develop- costly and would obviously be easier if of new people. In many developing coun- ment assistance from the developed to population growth were slower. Lom- tries, investments in education, health the developing world is down, not up. borg does not deny this environmental services and infrastructure are not keep- Unfortunately, the unrelenting we-are- impact but asks unhelpfully, “What al- ing up with population growth. doing-fine tone that pervades Lomborg’s ternative do we have, with more than 6 It is true that life has improved for book encourages complacency rather billion people on Earth?” many people in recent decades, but than urgency. Lomborg correctly notes that pover- Lomborg does not acknowledge that this Population is not the main cause of ty is the main cause of hunger and mal- favorable trend has been brought about the world’s social, economic and envi- nutrition, but he neglects the contribu- in part by intensive efforts by govern- ronmental problems, but it contributes tion of population growth to poverty. ments and the international community. substantially to many of them. If popula- This effect operates through two distinct Investments in developing and distribut- tion had grown less rapidly in the past, mechanisms. First, rapid population ing “” technology have we would be better off now. And if fu- growth leads to a young population, one reduced hunger, public health campaigns ture growth can be slowed, future gener- in which as much as half is below the have cut death rates, and family-plan- ations will be better off. age of entry into the labor force. These ning programs have lowered birth rates. young people have to be fed, housed, Despite this progress, some 800 million John Bongaarts is vice president of the clothed and educated, but they are not people are still malnourished, and 1.2 Policy Research Division of the Popula- productive, thus constraining the econo- billion live in abject poverty. This very tion Council in . From my. Second, rapid population growth serious situation calls for more effective 1998 to 2000 he chaired the Panel on creates a huge demand for new jobs. A remedial action. Lomborg asks the de- Population Projections of the National large number of applicants for a limited veloped nations to fulfill their U.N. Academy of Sciences, National Research number of jobs exerts downward pres- pledge to donate 0.7 percent of their Council. He is a member of the Royal sure on wages, contributing to poverty GNPs to assist the developing world, but Dutch Academy of Sciences. and inequality. Unemployment is wide- spread, and often workers in poor coun- tries earn wages near the subsistence lev- el. Both of these adverse economic effects are reversible by reducing birth rates. With lower birth rates, schools become : less crowded, the ratio of dependents to workers declines as does the growth in the number of job seekers. These benefi- DISMISSING SCIENTIFIC PROCESS cial demographic effects contributed to the economic “miracles” of several East Asian countries. Of course, such dramat- iologists are trained to totally confounds the process by which a ic results are by no means assured and have a healthy respect species is judged to be extinct with the can be realized only in countries with for statistics and statisti- estimates and projections of extinction otherwise sound economic policies. cians. It was disconcert- rates. Highly conservative rules hold that Lomborg approvingly notes the huge ing, therefore, to find that to be declared officially extinct, not only ongoing migration from villages to cities Bbefore even examining does a species have to be known to sci- in the developing world. This has been the extinction problem—and the num- ence, it has to be observed going to ex- considered a welcome development, be- bers invoked to demonstrate that it is or tinction (as in the case of the passenger cause urban dwellers generally have is not a problem—Lomborg begins the pigeon, the last one of which perished in higher standards of living than villagers. chapter on biodiversity with a section the Cincinnati Zoo in 1914). Or, in the Because the flow of migrants is now so questioning whether biodiversity is im- absence of direct observation, it must not large, however, it tends to overwhelm portant. In less than a page, he discounts have been seen in nature for 50 years. the absorptive capacity of cities, and its value both as the library for the life Projections of extinction rates, on many migrants end up living in appalling sciences and as provider of ecosystem the other hand, are generally based on conditions in slums. The traditional ur- services (in part because of a general ab- the long-established relation between ban advantage is eroding in the poorest sence of markets for these services). species number and area (which dates to countries, and the health conditions in When he finally gets to extinction, he 1921, not to the 1960s, as Lomborg www.sciam.com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 73 maintains, and which demonstrates the tion rates. Lom- rate at which species number increases borg cynically dis- with increase in area). Researchers then misses the use of project what the reduction in a natural multiples of normal habitat will mean in terms of species rates as being done loss. The disappearance of a species is because it sounds more not necessarily instantaneous, and thus “ominous” rather than some species that survive the initial re- recognizing the altered duction of the habitat are essentially approach as an im- “living dead”—they are not able to sur- provement in the vive over the long term. The loss of science. species from habitat remnants is a wide- Estimates of pre- ly documented phenomenon—in con- sent extinction rates trast to Lomborg’s inclusion of an out- range from 100 to of-date assertion that no credible at- 1,000 times normal, with tempt has been made to pin down the contradictory evidence that although 99 most estimates at 1,000. The percent of underlying scientific assumptions. percent of the primary was lost, bird (12), mammal (18), fish (5) and As a consequence, a seemingly major the island ended up with more birds flowering plant (8) species threatened contradiction that Lomborg then offers than it supported before deforestation. with extinction is consistent with that is no contradiction at all: the reduction First of all, total forest cover was never so estimate. And the rates are certain to of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest forma- dramatically reduced. More significant, rise—and to do so exponentially—as tion to something on the order of 10 he ignores that seven of the 60 species natural habitats continue to dwindle. percent of its original extent and the unique to Puerto Rico were lost, and the The consideration of acid rain in a lack of large numbers of recorded ex- additional species are not only invasives separate chapter is equally poorly re- tinctions. First of all, this is a region from other parts of the world but live in searched and presented. Indeed, the re- with very few field biologists to record a wide variety of habitats. He complete- search is so shallow that almost no cita- either species or their extinction. Sec- ly misses the point that the world’s bird tion from the peer-reviewed literature ond, there is abundant evidence that if fauna was reduced by seven species. appears. Lomborg asserts that big-city the Atlantic forest remains as reduced Lomborg takes particular exception pollution has nothing to do with acid and fragmented as it is, it will lose a siz- to projections of massive extinction that rain, when it is fact that nitrogen com- able fraction of the species that at the started with Norman Myers’s 1979 esti- pounds (NOx) from traffic are a major moment are able to hang on. mate that 40,000 species are being lost source. His reference to a study showing In another supposed example of spe- from the globe every year. There is some that acid rain had no effect on the cies surviving habitat loss, he notes that justification for this objection: Myers did seedlings of three tree species neglects to Things improve because of the efforts of environmentalists to FLAG A PARTICULAR PROBLEM, investigate it and suggest policies to remedy it. few species went extinct when the eastern not specify the method of arriving at his mention that the study did not include of the U.S. were reduced to 1 to 2 estimate. Nevertheless, he deserves cred- conifer species such as red spruce, which percent of their original area. But only it for being the first to say that the num- are very sensitive. There is no acknowl- the old-growth forests shrank that much; ber was large and for doing so at a time edgment of the delayed effects from acid total forest cover never fell below rough- when it was difficult to make more accu- rain soil nutrients, particularly Minden Pictures ly 50 percent—allowing much biodiversi- rate calculations. Current estimates are key cations. He confounds tree damage ty to survive as forest returned to an even usually given in terms of the increases from 30 to 60 years ago greater area. Consequently, the small over normal extinction rates, which is with subsequent acid rain damage and number of bird extinctions does not con- preferable in that it is not necessary to makes an Alice-in-Wonderland statement tradict what species-area considerations assume a figure for the total number of that the only reason we worry about fo- predict but instead confirms them. species on the earth. That science does liage loss is “because we have started In presenting an analysis for Puerto not know the total number of species monitoring this loss.” It is simply untrue

Rico, Lomborg again cites apparently does not prevent an estimation of extinc- that “there is no case of forest decline in PHOTOGRAPHS BY FRANS LANTING

74 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN JANUARY 2002 which acidic deposition is known to be a (although there may be a threshold past MORE TO EXPLORE predominant cause.” Two clear-cut ex- which remedy is impossible), extinction The Diversity of Life. E. O. Wilson. Belknap amples are red spruce in the Adiron- is not. A dispassionate analysis, which Press of Harvard University Press, 1992. dacks and sugar maple in Pennsylvania. Lomborg pretends to offer, of how far Global Biodiversity Assessment. Edited by V. H. The chapter on forests also suffers we have come and how far we have yet Heywood. Cambridge University Press, 1996. from superficial research and selective to go would have been a great contribu- Our Common Journey: A Transition toward use of numbers. Lomborg starts by dis- tion. Instead we see a pattern of denial. . National Research Council playing Food and Agriculture Organi- The pattern is evident in the selective Board on , Policy Division. National Academy Press, 1999. zation (FAO) data from 1948 to 2000. quoting. In trying to show that it is im- Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World’s The FAO began by just reporting sums possible to establish the extinction rate, Population. Edited by John Bongaarts and of “official data” furnished by govern- he states: “Colinvaux admits in Scientif- Rodolfo A. Bulatao. National Research Council, ments (such data are notoriously un- ic American that the rate is ‘incalcula- 2000. even in quality and frequently overesti- ble,’” when Paul A. Colinvaux’s text, Climate of Uncertainty. George Musser in mate forest stocks). Subsequently, the published in May 1989, is: “As human Scientific American, Vol. 285, No. 4, pages 14–15; October 2001. FAO adopted so many different defini- beings lay to massive tracts of tions and methods that any statistician vegetation, an incalculable and unprece- Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences, 2001. National Research Council. Available at should know they could not be used for dented number of species are rapidly be- www.nap.edu/catalog/9975.html a valid time series. coming extinct.” Why not show that World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Lomborg’s discussion of the great fire Colinvaux thought the number is large? Challenge of Sustainability. United Nations in Indonesia in 1997 is still another in- Biased language, such as “admits” in Development Program, United Nations stance of misleading readers with selec- this instance, permeates the book. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and World Energy Council, 2001. Available at tive information. Yes, the WWF (World In addition to errors of bias, the text www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea/ Wide Fund for Nature) first estimated is rife with careless mistakes. Time and drafts-frame.html the amount of forest burned at two mil- again I sought to track references from The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate lion hectares, and Indonesia countered the text to the footnotes to the bibliog- Change Web site is available at www.ipcc.ch/ with official estimates of 165,000 to raphy to find but a mirage in the desert. 219,000 hectares. But Lomborg fails to Far worse, Lomborg seems quite ig- mention that the latter were not in the norant of how environmental science least credible and that in 1999 the In- proceeds: researchers identify a poten- donesian government and donor agen- tial problem, scientific examination tests cies, including the World Bank, signed the various hypotheses, understanding off on a report that the real number was of the problem often becomes more 4.6 million hectares. complex, researchers suggest remedial From the very outset—his introduc- policies—and then the situation im- tory chapter—Lomborg confuses forests proves. By choosing to highlight the ini- and tree plantations. In criticizing a tial step and skip to the outcome, he im- WWF estimate of loss of “natural plies incorrectly that all environmental- ,” he implies that the only value ists do is exaggerate. The point is that of forests is harvestable trees. That is things improve because of the efforts of analogous to valuing computer chips environmentalists to flag a particular only for their silicon content. In fact, the problem, investigate it and suggest poli- metric the WWF used includes natural cies to remedy it. Sadly, the author seems forests (because of their biodiversity) not to reciprocate the respect biologists and omits plantations (because of their have for statisticians. general lack thereof). The central question of the book— Thomas Lovejoy is chief biodiversity Are things getting better?—is an impor- adviser to the president of the World tant one. The reality is that significant Bank and senior adviser to the presi- progress has been made in abating acid dent of the United Nations Foundation. rain, although much still needs to be From 1973 to 1987 he directed the done. And major efforts are under way World Fund–U.S., and from to stem deforestation and to address the 1987 to 1998 he served as assistant sec- tsunami of extinction. But it is crucial to retary for environmental and external remember that whereas deforestation affairs for the Smithsonian Institution and acid rain are theoretically reversible in Washington, D.C.

www.sciam.com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 75