6. Distribution and Quantile Functions
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5. the Student T Distribution
Virtual Laboratories > 4. Special Distributions > 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 5. The Student t Distribution In this section we will study a distribution that has special importance in statistics. In particular, this distribution will arise in the study of a standardized version of the sample mean when the underlying distribution is normal. The Probability Density Function Suppose that Z has the standard normal distribution, V has the chi-squared distribution with n degrees of freedom, and that Z and V are independent. Let Z T= √V/n In the following exercise, you will show that T has probability density function given by −(n +1) /2 Γ((n + 1) / 2) t2 f(t)= 1 + , t∈ℝ ( n ) √n π Γ(n / 2) 1. Show that T has the given probability density function by using the following steps. n a. Show first that the conditional distribution of T given V=v is normal with mean 0 a nd variance v . b. Use (a) to find the joint probability density function of (T,V). c. Integrate the joint probability density function in (b) with respect to v to find the probability density function of T. The distribution of T is known as the Student t distribution with n degree of freedom. The distribution is well defined for any n > 0, but in practice, only positive integer values of n are of interest. This distribution was first studied by William Gosset, who published under the pseudonym Student. In addition to supplying the proof, Exercise 1 provides a good way of thinking of the t distribution: the t distribution arises when the variance of a mean 0 normal distribution is randomized in a certain way. -
Theoretical Statistics. Lecture 20
Theoretical Statistics. Lecture 20. Peter Bartlett 1. Recall: Functional delta method, differentiability in normed spaces, Hadamard derivatives. [vdV20] 2. Quantile estimates. [vdV21] 3. Contiguity. [vdV6] 1 Recall: Differentiability of functions in normed spaces Definition: φ : D E is Hadamard differentiable at θ D tangentially → ∈ to D D if 0 ⊆ φ′ : D E (linear, continuous), h D , ∃ θ 0 → ∀ ∈ 0 if t 0, ht h 0, then → k − k → φ(θ + tht) φ(θ) − φ′ (h) 0. t − θ → 2 Recall: Functional delta method Theorem: Suppose φ : D E, where D and E are normed linear spaces. → Suppose the statistic Tn : Ωn D satisfies √n(Tn θ) T for a random → − element T in D D. 0 ⊂ If φ is Hadamard differentiable at θ tangentially to D0 then ′ √n(φ(Tn) φ(θ)) φ (T ). − θ If we can extend φ′ : D E to a continuous map φ′ : D E, then 0 → → ′ √n(φ(Tn) φ(θ)) = φ (√n(Tn θ)) + oP (1). − θ − 3 Recall: Quantiles Definition: The quantile function of F is F −1 : (0, 1) R, → F −1(p) = inf x : F (x) p . { ≥ } Quantile transformation: for U uniform on (0, 1), • F −1(U) F. ∼ Probability integral transformation: for X F , F (X) is uniform on • ∼ [0,1] iff F is continuous on R. F −1 is an inverse (i.e., F −1(F (x)) = x and F (F −1(p)) = p for all x • and p) iff F is continuous and strictly increasing. 4 Empirical quantile function For a sample with distribution function F , define the empirical quantile −1 function as the quantile function Fn of the empirical distribution function Fn. -
A Tail Quantile Approximation Formula for the Student T and the Symmetric Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Schlüter, Stephan; Fischer, Matthias J. Working Paper A tail quantile approximation formula for the student t and the symmetric generalized hyperbolic distribution IWQW Discussion Papers, No. 05/2009 Provided in Cooperation with: Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics Suggested Citation: Schlüter, Stephan; Fischer, Matthias J. (2009) : A tail quantile approximation formula for the student t and the symmetric generalized hyperbolic distribution, IWQW Discussion Papers, No. 05/2009, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung (IWQW), Nürnberg This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/29554 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu IWQW Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung Diskussionspapier Discussion Papers No. -
Stat 5102 Lecture Slides: Deck 1 Empirical Distributions, Exact Sampling Distributions, Asymptotic Sampling Distributions
Stat 5102 Lecture Slides: Deck 1 Empirical Distributions, Exact Sampling Distributions, Asymptotic Sampling Distributions Charles J. Geyer School of Statistics University of Minnesota 1 Empirical Distributions The empirical distribution associated with a vector of numbers x = (x1; : : : ; xn) is the probability distribution with expectation operator n 1 X Enfg(X)g = g(xi) n i=1 This is the same distribution that arises in finite population sam- pling. Suppose we have a population of size n whose members have values x1, :::, xn of a particular measurement. The value of that measurement for a randomly drawn individual from this population has a probability distribution that is this empirical distribution. 2 The Mean of the Empirical Distribution In the special case where g(x) = x, we get the mean of the empirical distribution n 1 X En(X) = xi n i=1 which is more commonly denotedx ¯n. Those with previous exposure to statistics will recognize this as the formula of the population mean, if x1, :::, xn is considered a finite population from which we sample, or as the formula of the sample mean, if x1, :::, xn is considered a sample from a specified population. 3 The Variance of the Empirical Distribution The variance of any distribution is the expected squared deviation from the mean of that same distribution. The variance of the empirical distribution is n 2o varn(X) = En [X − En(X)] n 2o = En [X − x¯n] n 1 X 2 = (xi − x¯n) n i=1 The only oddity is the use of the notationx ¯n rather than µ for the mean. -
Fan Chart: Methodology and Its Application to Inflation Forecasting in India
W P S (DEPR) : 5 / 2011 RBI WORKING PAPER SERIES Fan Chart: Methodology and its Application to Inflation Forecasting in India Nivedita Banerjee and Abhiman Das DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND POLICY RESEARCH MAY 2011 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced the RBI Working Papers series in May 2011. These papers present research in progress of the staff members of RBI and are disseminated to elicit comments and further debate. The views expressed in these papers are those of authors and not that of RBI. Comments and observations may please be forwarded to authors. Citation and use of such papers should take into account its provisional character. Copyright: Reserve Bank of India 2011 Fan Chart: Methodology and its Application to Inflation Forecasting in India Nivedita Banerjee 1 (Email) and Abhiman Das (Email) Abstract Ever since Bank of England first published its inflation forecasts in February 1996, the Fan Chart has been an integral part of inflation reports of central banks around the world. The Fan Chart is basically used to improve presentation: to focus attention on the whole of the forecast distribution, rather than on small changes to the central projection. However, forecast distribution is a technical concept originated from the statistical sampling distribution. In this paper, we have presented the technical details underlying the derivation of Fan Chart used in representing the uncertainty in inflation forecasts. The uncertainty occurs because of the inter-play of the macro-economic variables affecting inflation. The uncertainty in the macro-economic variables is based on their historical standard deviation of the forecast errors, but we also allow these to be subjectively adjusted. -
Arcsine Laws for Random Walks Generated from Random Permutations with Applications to Genomics
Applied Probability Trust (4 February 2021) ARCSINE LAWS FOR RANDOM WALKS GENERATED FROM RANDOM PERMUTATIONS WITH APPLICATIONS TO GENOMICS XIAO FANG,1 The Chinese University of Hong Kong HAN LIANG GAN,2 Northwestern University SUSAN HOLMES,3 Stanford University HAIYAN HUANG,4 University of California, Berkeley EROL PEKOZ,¨ 5 Boston University ADRIAN ROLLIN,¨ 6 National University of Singapore WENPIN TANG,7 Columbia University 1 Email address: [email protected] 2 Email address: [email protected] 3 Email address: [email protected] 4 Email address: [email protected] 5 Email address: [email protected] 6 Email address: [email protected] 7 Email address: [email protected] 1 Postal address: Department of Statistics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong 2 Postal address: Department of Mathematics, Northwestern University, 2033 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208 2 Current address: University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand 1 2 X. Fang et al. Abstract A classical result for the simple symmetric random walk with 2n steps is that the number of steps above the origin, the time of the last visit to the origin, and the time of the maximum height all have exactly the same distribution and converge when scaled to the arcsine law. Motivated by applications in genomics, we study the distributions of these statistics for the non-Markovian random walk generated from the ascents and descents of a uniform random permutation and a Mallows(q) permutation and show that they have the same asymptotic distributions as for the simple random walk. -
Finding Basic Statistics Using Minitab 1. Put Your Data Values in One of the Columns of the Minitab Worksheet
Finding Basic Statistics Using Minitab 1. Put your data values in one of the columns of the Minitab worksheet. 2. Add a variable name in the gray box just above the data values. 3. Click on “Stat”, then click on “Basic Statistics”, and then click on "Display Descriptive Statistics". 4. Choose the variable you want the basic statistics for click on “Select”. 5. Click on the “Statistics” box and then check the box next to each statistic you want to see, and uncheck the boxes next to those you do not what to see. 6. Click on “OK” in that window and click on “OK” in the next window. 7. The values of all the statistics you selected will appear in the Session window. Example (Navidi & Monk, Elementary Statistics, 2nd edition, #31 p. 143, 1st 4 columns): This data gives the number of tribal casinos in a sample of 16 states. 3 7 14 114 2 3 7 8 26 4 3 14 70 3 21 1 Open Minitab and enter the data under C1. The table below shows a portion of the entered data. ↓ C1 C2 Casinos 1 3 2 7 3 14 4 114 5 2 6 3 7 7 8 8 9 26 10 4 Now click on “Stat” and then choose “Basic Statistics” and “Display Descriptive Statistics”. Click in the box under “Variables:”, choose C1 from the window at left, and then click on the “Select” button. Next click on the “Statistics” button and choose which statistics you want to find. We will usually be interested in the following statistics: mean, standard error of the mean, standard deviation, minimum, maximum, range, first quartile, median, third quartile, interquartile range, mode, and skewness. -
Depth, Outlyingness, Quantile, and Rank Functions in Multivariate & Other Data Settings Eserved@D = *@Let@Token
DEPTH, OUTLYINGNESS, QUANTILE, AND RANK FUNCTIONS – CONCEPTS, PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES Depth, Outlyingness, Quantile, and Rank Functions in Multivariate & Other Data Settings Robert Serfling1 Serfling & Thompson Statistical Consulting and Tutoring ASA Alabama-Mississippi Chapter Mini-Conference University of Mississippi, Oxford April 5, 2019 1 www.utdallas.edu/∼serfling DEPTH, OUTLYINGNESS, QUANTILE, AND RANK FUNCTIONS – CONCEPTS, PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES “Don’t walk in front of me, I may not follow. Don’t walk behind me, I may not lead. Just walk beside me and be my friend.” – Albert Camus DEPTH, OUTLYINGNESS, QUANTILE, AND RANK FUNCTIONS – CONCEPTS, PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES OUTLINE Depth, Outlyingness, Quantile, and Rank Functions on Rd Depth Functions on Arbitrary Data Space X Depth Functions on Arbitrary Parameter Space Θ Concluding Remarks DEPTH, OUTLYINGNESS, QUANTILE, AND RANK FUNCTIONS – CONCEPTS, PERSPECTIVES, CHALLENGES d DEPTH, OUTLYINGNESS, QUANTILE, AND RANK FUNCTIONS ON R PRELIMINARY PERSPECTIVES Depth functions are a nonparametric approach I The setting is nonparametric data analysis. No parametric or semiparametric model is assumed or invoked. I We exhibit the geometric structure of a data set in terms of a center, quantile levels, measures of outlyingness for each point, and identification of outliers or outlier regions. I Such data description is developed in terms of a depth function that measures centrality from a global viewpoint and yields center-outward ordering of data points. I This differs from the density function, -
Sampling Student's T Distribution – Use of the Inverse Cumulative
Sampling Student’s T distribution – use of the inverse cumulative distribution function William T. Shaw Department of Mathematics, King’s College, The Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UK With the current interest in copula methods, and fat-tailed or other non-normal distributions, it is appropriate to investigate technologies for managing marginal distributions of interest. We explore “Student’s” T distribution, survey its simulation, and present some new techniques for simulation. In particular, for a given real (not necessarily integer) value n of the number of degrees of freedom, −1 we give a pair of power series approximations for the inverse, Fn ,ofthe cumulative distribution function (CDF), Fn.Wealsogivesomesimpleandvery fast exact and iterative techniques for defining this function when n is an even −1 integer, based on the observation that for such cases the calculation of Fn amounts to the solution of a reduced-form polynomial equation of degree n − 1. We also explain the use of Cornish–Fisher expansions to define the inverse CDF as the composition of the inverse CDF for the normal case with a simple polynomial map. The methods presented are well adapted for use with copula and quasi-Monte-Carlo techniques. 1 Introduction There is much interest in many areas of financial modeling on the use of copulas to glue together marginal univariate distributions where there is no easy canonical multivariate distribution, or one wishes to have flexibility in the mechanism for combination. One of the more interesting marginal distributions is the “Student’s” T distribution. This statistical distribution was published by W. Gosset in 1908. -
Extreme Value Theory and Backtest Overfitting in Finance
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Bowdoin Digital Commons Honors Projects Student Scholarship and Creative Work 2015 Extreme Value Theory and Backtest Overfitting in Finance Daniel C. Byrnes [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.bowdoin.edu/honorsprojects Part of the Statistics and Probability Commons Recommended Citation Byrnes, Daniel C., "Extreme Value Theory and Backtest Overfitting in Finance" (2015). Honors Projects. 24. https://digitalcommons.bowdoin.edu/honorsprojects/24 This Open Access Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Scholarship and Creative Work at Bowdoin Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Projects by an authorized administrator of Bowdoin Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Extreme Value Theory and Backtest Overfitting in Finance An Honors Paper Presented for the Department of Mathematics By Daniel Byrnes Bowdoin College, 2015 ©2015 Daniel Byrnes Acknowledgements I would like to thank professor Thomas Pietraho for his help in the creation of this thesis. The revisions and suggestions made by several members of the math faculty were also greatly appreciated. I would also like to thank the entire department for their support throughout my time at Bowdoin. 1 Contents 1 Abstract 3 2 Introduction4 3 Background7 3.1 The Sharpe Ratio.................................7 3.2 Other Performance Measures.......................... 10 3.3 Example of an Overfit Strategy......................... 11 4 Modes of Convergence for Random Variables 13 4.1 Random Variables and Distributions...................... 13 4.2 Convergence in Distribution.......................... -
Free Infinite Divisibility and Free Multiplicative Mixtures of the Wigner Distribution
FREE INFINITE DIVISIBILITY AND FREE MULTIPLICATIVE MIXTURES OF THE WIGNER DISTRIBUTION Victor Pérez-Abreu and Noriyoshi Sakuma Comunicación del CIMAT No I-09-0715/ -10-2009 ( PE/CIMAT) Free Infinite Divisibility of Free Multiplicative Mixtures of the Wigner Distribution Victor P´erez-Abreu∗ Department of Probability and Statistics, CIMAT Apdo. Postal 402, Guanajuato Gto. 36000, Mexico [email protected] Noriyoshi Sakumay Department of Mathematics, Keio University, 3-14-1, Hiyoshi, Yokohama 223-8522, Japan. [email protected] March 19, 2010 Abstract Let I∗ and I be the classes of all classical infinitely divisible distributions and free infinitely divisible distributions, respectively, and let Λ be the Bercovici-Pata bijection between I∗ and I: The class type W of symmetric distributions in I that can be represented as free multiplicative convolutions of the Wigner distribution is studied. A characterization of this class under the condition that the mixing distribution is 2-divisible with respect to free multiplicative convolution is given. A correspondence between sym- metric distributions in I and the free counterpart under Λ of the positive distributions in I∗ is established. It is shown that the class type W does not include all symmetric distributions in I and that it does not coincide with the image under Λ of the mixtures of the Gaussian distribution in I∗. Similar results for free multiplicative convolutions with the symmetric arcsine measure are obtained. Several well-known and new concrete examples are presented. AMS 2000 Subject Classification: 46L54, 15A52. Keywords: Free convolutions, type G law, free stable law, free compound distribution, Bercovici-Pata bijection. -
Location-Scale Distributions
Location–Scale Distributions Linear Estimation and Probability Plotting Using MATLAB Horst Rinne Copyright: Prof. em. Dr. Horst Rinne Department of Economics and Management Science Justus–Liebig–University, Giessen, Germany Contents Preface VII List of Figures IX List of Tables XII 1 The family of location–scale distributions 1 1.1 Properties of location–scale distributions . 1 1.2 Genuine location–scale distributions — A short listing . 5 1.3 Distributions transformable to location–scale type . 11 2 Order statistics 18 2.1 Distributional concepts . 18 2.2 Moments of order statistics . 21 2.2.1 Definitions and basic formulas . 21 2.2.2 Identities, recurrence relations and approximations . 26 2.3 Functions of order statistics . 32 3 Statistical graphics 36 3.1 Some historical remarks . 36 3.2 The role of graphical methods in statistics . 38 3.2.1 Graphical versus numerical techniques . 38 3.2.2 Manipulation with graphs and graphical perception . 39 3.2.3 Graphical displays in statistics . 41 3.3 Distribution assessment by graphs . 43 3.3.1 PP–plots and QQ–plots . 43 3.3.2 Probability paper and plotting positions . 47 3.3.3 Hazard plot . 54 3.3.4 TTT–plot . 56 4 Linear estimation — Theory and methods 59 4.1 Types of sampling data . 59 IV Contents 4.2 Estimators based on moments of order statistics . 63 4.2.1 GLS estimators . 64 4.2.1.1 GLS for a general location–scale distribution . 65 4.2.1.2 GLS for a symmetric location–scale distribution . 71 4.2.1.3 GLS and censored samples .