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Navigating the Eastern Mediterranean Interest-Formation & State-Action: Egypt, Israel, Turkey & the Republic of Cyprus

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Navigating the Eastern Mediterranean Interest-Formation & State-Action: Egypt, Israel, Turkey & the Republic of Cyprus Linköping University | Faculty of Arts and Sciences Master thesis | MSSc International and European Relations Spring 2018 | LIU-IEI-FIL-A--18/02902--SE Navigating the Eastern Mediterranean Interest-formation & State-action: Egypt, Israel, Turkey & the Republic of Cyprus Viktor A. Johansson Supervisor, Khalid Khayati Examinator, Lars Niklasson Copyright The publishers will keep this document online on the Internet – or its possible replacement – for a period of 25 years starting from the date of publication barring exceptional circumstances. The online availability of the document implies permanent permission for anyone to read, to download, or to print out single copies for his/hers own use and to use it unchanged for non- commercial research and educational purpose. Subsequent transfers of copyright cannot revoke this permission. All other uses of the document are conditional upon the consent of the copyright owner. The publisher has taken technical and administrative measures to assure authenticity, security and accessibility. According to intellectual property law the author has the right to be mentioned when his/her work is accessed as described above and to be protected against infringement. For additional information about the Linköping University Electronic Press and its procedures for publication and for assurance of document integrity, please refer to its www home page: http://www.ep.liu.se/. © Viktor A. Johansson Abstract This study examines interest-formation and state-action in the Eastern Mediterranean countries of Egypt, Israel, Turkey and the Republic of Cyprus. In seeking answers to the questions on how interests of the respective countries can be explained, particularly within the area of natural gas, and possible consequences of different regional approaches, the study draws upon ideas in classical, structural, neoclassical realism and constructivism. The theoretical diversity enables the study to focus on international, state and domestic levels by way of qualitative content analysis as the selected methodology. The findings suggest that Egypt, Israel and Cyprus possess corresponding views in their regional outlook; including natural gas as a means for stability and economic growth, but also that these views contrast significantly with Turkey’s regional perspective. Additional findings show that interest-formation in all four states, despite coherence among Egypt, Israel and Cyprus, differentiates to a large degree. The chief reason is that interest-formation appears to occur within international, state and domestic levels. Regarding the second question, the study finds that the different and often conflicting regional approaches on natural gas of Cyprus and Turkey, which are based upon fundamentally different premises, pose risk for heightened tensions between both Cyprus, Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Keywords: Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, Energy politics, Natural gas, Word count: 24.855 Acknowledgements I would like to extend my special thanks to Dr. Khalid Khayati, Senior Lecturer at Linköping University, for his superb work in supervising the thesis. From day one, Dr. Khayati expressed a sound interest in the topic and was an indispensible pillar, providing constructive critique along with creative suggestions throughout the entire process. I want to thank the entire staff at the Embassy of Sweden in Nicosia for their colleagueship, their help and their contributions to an unforgettable experience. I extend special notes of appreciation to Ambassador Anna Olsson-Vrang and Deputy Head of Mission Peter Kvist for sharing their insight, wisdom and for the opportunities and guidance I was given throughout my stay. I will be forever grateful to have had the opportunity to learn from them. Recalling the words of my mother that “knowledge is something that no one can take away from you”; I deeply thank my parents and grandparents for providing me with the opportunity to pursue an academic degree and for their support and optimism throughout my years of education. To my grandfather Oscar Eldh for having brought history to my attention many years ago which incited an interest in contributing to the prosperity of all people. This work is dedicated to you. Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 AIM AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS ......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 EXISTING RESEARCH FIELD .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 DISPOSITION ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 2. THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKS ............................................................... 6 2.1 CLASSICAL REALISM ................................................................................................................................................ 7 2.2 STRUCTURAL REALISM ............................................................................................................................................ 8 2.3 NEOCLASSICAL REALISM ........................................................................................................................................ 9 2.4 CONSTRUCTIVISM .................................................................................................................................................. 11 2.5 THREE FORMS OF CONSTRUCTIVISM ................................................................................................................ 13 2.6 DEFINITION OF THEORETICAL CONCEPTS ....................................................................................................... 14 3. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................... 15 3.1 QUALITATIVE CONTENT ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................. 17 3.2 OPERATIONALIZATION ......................................................................................................................................... 17 3.3 ANALYTICAL APPROACH ..................................................................................................................................... 18 3.4 LIMITATIONS OF STUDY ....................................................................................................................................... 18 3.5 MATERIAL ................................................................................................................................................................ 19 4. BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................................... 20 4.1 EGYPT: TRANSFORMATION UNDER NASSER, SADAT AND REGIONAL RELATIONS ........................... 20 4.2 IRAN: POLITICAL TRANSITIONS, PAST AND PRESENT REGIONAL INFLUENCE ..................................... 22 4.3 ISRAEL: ESTABLISHMENT, NEIGHBORLY RELATIONS AND A WEST-WARD ORIENTATION ............. 24 4.4 TURKEY: ESTABLISHMENT, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT AND DOMESTIC CHALLENGES .................. 27 4.5 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS: ESTABLISHMENT, DIVISION AND PROBLEMS OF PEACE ................................ 28 5. ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................. 31 5.1 NATIONAL INTERESTS AND COMPETITION: THE CLASSIC INCENTIVES ................................................ 31 5.1.1 Egypt: Anti-Terrorism and Economic Development for a future Egypt ...................................... 31 5.1.2 Israel: External threats and the elevation of Israel’s position ........................................................ 33 5.1.3 Turkey: National unity, independence and maritime issues ............................................................. 34 5.1.4 Republic of Cyprus: Exercise of sovereign rights in a new regional environment ................. 36 5.2 PREFERENTIAL SURVIVAL: STRUCTURAL ATTEMPTS AND INITIATIVES .............................................. 38 5.2.1 Egypt: Relations with Cyprus and Israel and the benefits of natural gas ................................... 38 5.2.2. Israel: Begin-Sadat Agreement today and regional engagement with Cyprus ........................ 41 5.2.3 Turkey: Regional engagement in line with the Turkish-Cypriots ................................................... 44 5.2.4 Republic of Cyprus: Regional engagement with Israel and Egypt ................................................ 47 5.3 THE DOMESTIC AND SOCIAL FABRIC: EFFECTS ON INTER-STATE RELATIONS ................................... 50 5.3.1 Egypt: Social change and cultural ties with regional partners ....................................................... 50 5.3.2 Israel: Interpersonal relationships and democracy for cooperation ............................................ 53 5.3.3 Turkey: Domestic spirit and Turkey as a Motherland ........................................................................ 56 5.3.4 Republic of Cyprus: Democracy for cooperation and cultural ties ............................................... 57
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