[Korea] Entertainment November 17, 2020

JYP Entertainment Buy (035900 KQ ) (Upgrade)

Attention turning to new group debut and potential TP: W47,000 ▲ return of concerts Upside: 23.4%

Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Jeong -yeob Park [email protected]

3Q20 review : Much better than Consolidated revenue of W 34 .6bn (-24.1% YoY ) and OP of W 11 .1bn (-24.6% YoY ) expected ó Top line contracted due to the absence of concerts, but album/digital content revenue was robust, providing a strong cushion. ó As a result of changes in the revenue mix, royalty fees and production costs fell 57% and 18% YoY, respectively, leading to gross margin improvements (+1.1%p YoY to 52.3%). ó Album/digital music (+10% YoY): A total of 820,000 copies were sold, including 370,000 copies for Stray Kids, 250,000 copies for ITZY, and 90,000 copies for DAY6. ó Management (-71% YoY): Concerts (-100% YoY), advertising (-33% YoY), and appearances (-23% YoY) were all hit hard by the pandemic. ó Merchandise/other (-4% YoY): YouTube revenue (W4bn; +233% YoY) and merchandise revenue (W3.8bn: +12% YoY) were boosted by growing fan bases. ó Faced with an unfavorable environment, the company managed to reorient its income source from management to content, improving its underlying profitability.

2021 earnings expectations are Upbeat on global projects and earnings for the remainder of the year key ó Yesterday, it was confirmed that NiziU will be featured on Japanese broadcaster NHK’s Kohaku Uta Gassen . This is unusual, as the group has yet to make its official debut (planned for Dec. 2). ó The group’s pre-debut single “Make You Happy” (released in June) has been a huge hit, with its music video garnering 160mn views. ó A number of indicators in Japan (digital music, buzzwords among teens, etc.) suggest the girl group is on track to outdo TWICE. ó Various global projects are being planned, including Project C (China; 2H21) and US auditions. ó Looking to 4Q20, we expect strong earnings driven by robust artist activities (including regular album releases by TWICE and GOT7) and the debut of NiziU (album and merchandise).

Valuation and recommendation Upgrade to Buy and raise TP by 15% to W47,000 ó Earnings variables are stabilizing, with worries over the concert suspension easing tha nks to robust content revenue. Reflecting a higher album/digital music revenue assumption and margin improvements, we raise our target price on JYP Entertainment to W47,000, which is based on a P/E of 30x our 2021 net profit attributable to owners of the parent of W54.5bn. ó We think the company is better positioned now than it has ever been, in light of its combination of cash cows (TWICE/GOT7), growth (Stray Kids/ITZY), and global exposure (NiziU). ó We recommend a Buy call on the stoc k, given: 1) our 2021 operating profit growth forecast of 57%; 2) additional upside potential from NiziU; and 3) improvements in the revenue mix. Key data

Current price (11/16/20, W) 38,100 Market cap (Wbn) 1,352 250 JYP Entertainment KOSDAQ OP (20F, Wbn) 45 Shares outstanding (mn) 35 200 Consensus OP (20F, Wbn) 42 Free float (%) 74.9 150 EPS growth (20F, %) 4.6 Foreign ownership (%) 17.1

100 P/E (20F, x) 41.3 Beta (12M) 0.83

50 Market P/E (20F, x) 17.1 52-week low (W) 15,350 11.19 3.20 7.20 11.20 KOSDAQ 847.33 52-week high (W) 42,450

Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Absolute 10.3 78.9 67.8 Revenue (Wbn) 74 102 125 155 142 194 Relative 8.5 46.1 32.4 OP (Wbn) 14 19 29 43 45 71

OP margin (%) 18.9 18.6 23.2 27.7 31.7 36.6 NP (Wbn) 8 16 24 31 33 55 EPS (W) 246 471 685 883 923 1,535 ROE (%) 13.4 21.4 22.5 21.9 19.0 25.8 P/E (x) 20.0 29.2 44.2 27.4 40.4 24. 3 P/B (x) 2.1 4.8 7.7 5.0 6.8 5.4 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. November 17, 2020 JYP Entertainment

Earnings forecasts and valuation

Table 1. Valuation (Wbn, x, %)

19 20F 21F 12MF Current P/E 42.3 40.4 24.3 34.7 Fair market cap 1,635 1,635 1,635 1,635 NP 31 33 55 38 Target P/E 52.2 49.9 30.0 42.8 Fair price (W) 47,037 47,037 47,037 47,037 Expected return (%) 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, %p) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20P 4Q20F 2019 2020F 2021F Revenue 26 39 46 44 34 34 35 40 155 142 194 Album/digital content 10 15 16 17 10 22 18 20 57 71 90 Management 9 14 17 12 6 3 5 5 51 19 38 Concerts 2 5 10 5 1 0 0 0 21 1 12 Advertising 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 4 17 13 15 Appearance fees 3 4 3 3 1 1 2 1 13 5 9 Other 8 11 12 16 18 9 12 15 47 53 66 OP 5.8 9.4 14.8 13.5 13.4 9.1 11.1 11.7 43 45 71 OP margin (%) 22.0 24.1 32.4 30.4 39.6 26.5 32.2 29.6 27.7 31.7 36.6 Pretax profit 7.2 8.7 14.3 12.8 14.2 7.9 9.9 11.3 43 43 71 NP 6.3 6.9 11.7 6.2 11.3 4.7 7.7 9.0 31 33 54 Net margin (%) 24.0 17.7 25.7 14.1 33.3 13.8 22.3 22.7 20.1 23.0 27.8 NP attributable to owners of the 6.4 6.8 11.7 6.3 11.3 4.7 7.7 9.1 31.3 32.8 54.5 parent YoY Revenue 14.5 24.1 34.5 22.0 28.9 -12.8 -24.1 -10.3 24.5 -8.3 36.5 Album/digital content 1.3 39.6 18.3 6.7 8.9 50.6 10.3 21.4 16.0 23.7 28.0 Management 0.8 -5.2 79.1 -8.7 -38.8 -75.2 -70.5 -57.1 12.7 -63.1 100.0 Concerts 97.0 -33.7 150.0 16.0 -37.1 -100.0 -99.5 -98.1 32.8 -93.2 725.9 Advertising -17.6 -4.2 19.8 23.7 -8.2 -39.9 -33.4 -20.0 3.7 -26.0 17.5 Appearance fees -4.3 69.7 47.2 -49.0 -76.3 -83.3 -23.7 -50.0 -0.6 -63.0 87.9 Other 70.2 61.7 15.0 100.8 135.1 -21.6 -4.3 -9.1 56.7 12.7 25.0 OP 322.7 3.9 74.5 36.9 132.3 -3.9 -24.6 -12.9 51.2 4.4 56.5 NP 241.2 -5.2 73.7 -25.3 78.6 -32.4 -34.0 44.7 28.6 4.9 64.8 NP attributable to owners of the 249.4 -5.9 80.0 -23.1 76.3 -30.9 -34.5 43.0 31.3 4.7 66.3 parent Key assumptions Domestic album sales volume ( ‘000) 130 857 461 752 305 1,399 824 820 2,200 3,349 0 Ticket sales volume in Japan ( ‘000) 150 220 120 90 150 0 0 0 580 150 500 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; concert ticket sales volume is based on actual timing of concert and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 November 17, 2020 JYP Entertainment

Figure 1. Improvement in underlying profitability, thanks to strategic shift from management to content

(%) (%) 100 Contribution of non-management revenue (L) Gross margin (R) 65

90 60

55 80 50 70 45 60 40 50 35

40 30

30 25 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20P

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 2. YouTube views by label: Increasing in line with new album releases

(mn views) 800 SM (SMTOWN) JYP (jypentertainment + TWICE) YG (YG ENTERTAINMENT + BLACKPINK + iKON + WINNER) Big Hit (Big Hit Labels + BANGTANTV) 600

400

200

0 8/15 12/15 4/16 8/16 12/16 4/17 8/17 12/17 4/18 8/18 12/18 4/19 8/19 12/19 4/20

Source: YouTube, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 3. NiziU is scheduled to appear on a major NHK music Figure 4. NiziU ranks 4 th among girl groups in Japan, higher show even though it has yet to make its official debut than TWICE (5 th ) and Girls’ Generation (7 th )

Source: Press materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: LINE, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

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JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ)

Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Revenue 125 155 142 194 Current assets 83 116 142 206 Cost of revenue 69 79 67 91 Cash & equivalents 45 39 67 106 GP 56 76 75 103 AR & other receivables 13 14 12 17 SG&A expenses 27 33 30 32 Inventory 1 1 1 1 OP (adj.) 29 43 45 71 Other current assets 24 62 62 82 OP 29 43 45 71 Non-current assets 77 92 90 89 Non-operating profit 1 0 -2 0 Investments in associates 0 0 0 0 Net financial income 0 1 2 3 PP&E 37 39 38 35 Net income from associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible assets 29 29 31 31 Pretax profit 30 43 43 71 Total assets 159 208 231 295 Income tax 6 12 11 17 Current liabilities 31 43 39 53 Profit from continuing operations 24 31 33 54 AP & other payables 9 10 9 12 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 0 1 1 1 NP 24 31 33 54 Other current liabilities 22 32 29 40 Attributable to owners 24 31 33 55 Non-current liabilities 1 2 2 3 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 -1 Long-term financial liabilities 0 1 1 1 Total comprehensive income 24 32 33 54 Other non-current liabilities 1 1 1 2 Attributable to owners 24 32 33 54 Total liabilities 31 45 41 55 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 -1 Equity attributable to owners 127 159 186 236 EBITDA 30 47 49 74 Capital stock 18 18 18 18 FCF 10 49 33 66 Capital surplus 71 77 77 77 EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 30.3 34.5 38.1 Retained earnings 48 76 103 153 OP margin (%) 23.2 27.7 31.7 36.6 Minority interests 1 3 4 3 Net margin (%) 19.2 20.0 23.2 28.4 Shareholders' equity 128 162 190 239

Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Operating cash flow 23 51 35 66 P/E (x) 44.2 27.4 40.4 24.3 NP 24 31 33 54 P/CF (x) 30.6 17.9 29.4 18.9 Non-cash income/expenses 10 16 13 18 P/B (x) 7.7 5.0 6.8 5.4 Depreciation 1 3 4 3 EV/EBITDA (x) 33.8 16.3 25.1 15.8 Amortization 0 0 0 0 EPS (W) 685 883 923 1,535 Other 9 13 9 15 CFPS (W) 988 1,346 1,298 2,019 Chg. in working capital -4 6 2 8 BPS (W) 3,930 4,818 5,606 6,997 Chg. in AR & other receivables -3 1 1 -5 DPS (W) 122 155 155 155 Chg. in inventory 0 1 0 0 Dividend payout ratio (%) 16.6 16.4 15.7 9.5 Chg. in AP & other payables -1 1 -1 1 Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 Income tax -8 -4 -15 -17 Revenue growth (%) 22.5 24.0 -8.4 36.6 Cash flow from investing activities -14 -59 -2 -21 EBITDA growth (%) 36.4 56.7 4.3 51.0 Chg. in PP&E -13 -2 -2 0 OP growth (%) 52.6 48.3 4.7 57.8 Chg. in intangible assets 0 0 0 0 EPS growth (%) 45.4 28.9 4.5 66.3 Chg. in financial assets -6 -42 7 -21 AR turnover (x) 10.6 11.6 10.8 13.2 Other 5 -15 -7 0 Inventory turnover (x) 79.6 143.1 217.4 265.4 Cash flow from financing activities 11 1 -6 -5 AP turnover (x) 12.6 26.5 38.6 46.9 Chg. in financial liabilities 0 2 0 0 ROA (%) 17.1 17.0 14.9 20.5 Chg. in equity 16 6 0 0 ROE (%) 22.5 21.9 19.0 25.8 Dividends 0 -4 -5 -5 ROIC (%) 45.1 62.8 76.4 129.6 Other -5 -3 -1 0 Debt-to-equity ratio (%) 24.5 28.0 21.5 23.2 Chg. in cash 20 -6 28 39 Current ratio (%) 270.7 269.4 366.4 390.4 Beginning balance 25 45 39 67 Net debt-to-equity ratio (%) -47.6 -58.5 -64.9 -76.0 Ending balance 45 39 67 106 Interest coverage ratio (x) 0.0 884.3 505.7 738.8 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 November 17, 2020 JYP Entertainment

Appendix 1

Important disclosures and disclaimers Two-year rating and TP history

Company Date Rating TP (W) (W) JYP Entertainment JYP Entertainment (035900) 11/17/20 Buy 47,000 50,000 08/18/20 Trading Buy 41,000 40,000 05/31/20 Trading Buy 27,000 11/14/19 Buy 31,000 30,000 08/15/19 Buy 28,000 20,000 04/23/19 Buy 41,000 10/24/18 Buy 46,500 10,000

0 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20

Stock ratings Sector ratings Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse

Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆) * Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months. * Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise. * The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings. * TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Ratings distribution and investment banking services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Ratings distribution 73.62% 14.11% 11.04% 1.23% Investment banking services 72.22% 11.11% 16.67% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12 months (as of September 30, 2020)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client divisions. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

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