LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK

JANUARY 2021 Introduction

This document collates evidence about the labour market in the West of , highlighting the current challenges posed by the COVID pandemic as well as identifying longer- term issues. The analysis looks at the characteristics and Contents spatial distribution of the labour force, and business and employer demand. It covers both short and long term This document is split into the Labour Market Intelligence and provides interpretation following sections: around the available data.

Geography Section Page The document refers to the West of England region. This is Business Environment 4 taken to mean the West of England Local Enterprise Partnership area, which is made up of four unitary authorities: Unemployment, 12 Employment and ▪ Bath and North East Somerset Redundancy ▪ Current Labour 23 ▪ Market Demand ▪

2 Summary

This section summarises results from the rest of the report. Business Environment Current Labour Market Demand

▪ The West of England has a broad sector base with a variety of ▪ Job posting data indicates that levels in December were slightly businesses based in the region. below those seen pre-pandemic, with a fall seen in November, ▪ The West of England has some specialist industries that make up a although December 2020 postings were up 85.30% on the year low of larger proportion of employment than the UK average, such as April 2020. There has been a shift in the type of jobs advertised. Gains Civil Engineering, Education and Knowledge Creation, Creative, in recent months were partly driven by strong increases in postings in Financial and Legal Services, and Digital. The impact of the both the IT and human health and social care sector. economic downturn caused by the COVID pandemic is expected to vary between sectors. ▪ The most frequently demanded jobs advertised December 2020 were: Programmers and software development professionals (790), Unemployment, Employment and Redundancy Nurse (493), Care workers and home carers (427), Managers and proprietors in other services (358) and Sales related occupations (290). ▪ As of December 2020 5.0% of working age population in the West of England were claiming unemployment benefits (36,840 residents). This is broadly in line with levels seen in October and ▪ Thematic areas of skills demand: November 2020. (1) Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects – these are the basis of many technological jobs ▪ The Labour Force Survey confirms unemployment is rising in the (2) Digital/ technology skills – these are applicable both within the South West region, with males and females seeing similar increases in rates between the Jan – March and Sept -Nov time period. Males important and resilient IT, creative and digital sectors, as well as in saw consistently higher rates of unemployment both nationally. The a variety of other jobs. region saw a lower unemployment rate than England as a whole, at (3) Specific vocations – training for specific jobs currently in demand 4.2% regionally compared to 5.3% nationally. (based on evidence), for example warehouse operatives and HGV drivers, care workers, teachers and nurses.

Sources: See corresponding later sections. 3 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Businesses in the West of England

Business concentration Business size

There are 46,275 businesses in the West of England. That Individuals in the Labour Market are often unaware that is 400 businesses per 10,000 residents. This is below the 78% of businesses in the West of England have fewer than five UK average and in the middle of comparator areas. employees. The results below are similar to those for the UK overall (78.5%) Number of businesses per 10,000 people (2020) Employee size of businesses in the West of England (2019)

London 593

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough 432

UK 412

West of England 400

Greater Manchester 369

West Midlands 311

Sheffield City Region 280

Liverpool City Region 277

Tees Valley 261

5 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey via NOMIS; Office for National Statistics (ONS) Business; Activity, Size and Location Volume employers in the region

The West of England has some volume employers with over 1,000 employees, including:

6 Employment by sector

In 2019, the largest employing Employment by sector (% of total) (2019) sectors within the West of England LEP were:

• Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (14% of all jobs in the region)

• Human health and social work activities (13% of all jobs in the region)

• Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (11% of all jobs in the region)

Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey via NOMIS 7 Regional Specialisms & Growth Areas

The West of England has some specialist industries, which employ more people in the region proportionally than the national average. The Sector Specialism National jobs growth % adjacent table highlights the sectors where we have employment specialisms, alongside whether these sectors are growing or shrinking Vehicle and Defence Technology +2% nationally. This helps us understand where there are growth opportunities, and where there may be a future skills demand; or if a Civil Engineering +6% current specialism is at risk due to industry contraction. This is particularly relevant during the current pandemic where COVID has Utility -3% altered or accelerated certain trends. Education and Knowledge Creation 0% Key points: Government +4% • Civil Engineering is a strength and is growing nationally, as is creative. Both are strong contributors to GVA. Local Environmental Services +6% • The West of England has fewer people in professional services than the UK average, although London skews this data and it is still a Creative +4% significant contributor to the region’s GVA. Property Development -1% • Given its engineering specialisms, the West of England could have opportunities in both Precision Technology and Maritime sectors, Construction Products and Services -1% which it currently has a below average number of employees in. Financial and Legal Services -8% For more information, see appendix ‘Regional Specialisms’

Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data 8 Wages in specialist areas

National jobs Difference to West of Most of the West of England LEP’s specialist growth % (2018- Average Wage (West of England Average Full- industries pay more than the regional average, Sector Specialism 2019) England, 2019) time Wage (£31,183) reflecting their highly skilled nature and competitiveness. Vehicle and Defence Technology 2% £41,196 24% Only Government and Creative have an average Civil Engineering 6% £38,094 18% salary lower than that of the regional average. Utility -3% £45,500 31% Creative’s reliance on freelancer workers could Education and potentially mean this underestimates wages in the Knowledge Creation 0% £31,411 1% sector – it is likely that with these included, the average wage would be higher. Government 4% £29,110 -7% Local Environmental Services 6% £31,481 1% Creative 4% £30,872 -1%

Property Development -1% £31,611 1% Construction Products and Services -1% £37,857 18% Financial and Legal Services -8% £36,591 15%

Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data 9 Future Trends: Pre-pandemic Predictions

Shape of the UK Labour Market 2017 – 2027 Working Futures provides a comprehensive and detailed model of the UK labour market and skills needs. It projects the future size and shape of the labour market by considering employment prospects by industry, occupation, qualification level, gender and employment status. Areas of growth Areas of Decline Impact of COVID Sectoral trends in employment • Business Services including • Distribution • Areas of growth are still considered professional and scientific • Manufacturing accurate • Health & Social Care • Finance and Insurance • Distribution and construction are no • Construction longer likely to decline in the short • Public Admin term, due to policy and demand changes Occupational trends • Caring and professional service • Secretarial Occupations • Growth in caring and professional • Corporate managers and • Plant, Process and Machine service is likely accelerated directors Operatives • Declining areas could experience • Business and public service • Skilled Metal and Electronic accelerated decline, although the associate professionals Trades future of manufacturing remains uncertain Replacement Demand – natural Replacement demand amongst all • In the immediate future, churn and movement within occupational groups is expected to replacement demand is expected to sectors. generate 7 times more job be less strong than predicted opportunities than growth • Economic downturn and extensive uncertainty make it less likely for individuals to leave their work and seek new employment

10 Source: Working Futures 2017 - 2027 Impact of COVID and recovery by sector

▪ Recovery has occurred in all sectors, though output in most remains down on February’s level. ▪ After the deepest initial fall, accommodation and food recovered strongly until August, fell again in October and November. ▪ Arts, entertainment and recreation and other services both continue to see depressed output.

National monthly GVA change for various sectors from February 2020 120

100

80

60

40 Accomodation & food

20

0 2020 FEB 2020 MAY 2020 AUG 2020 NOV

Wholesale, retail & motors Other services Accomodation & food Financial & insurance Arts, entertainment & recreation Manufacturing Construction Baseline

Source: ONS GDP estimates, November 2020 11 UNEMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT AND REDUNDANCY Claimant Count

Percentage of Working Age Residents Claiming Unemployment As of December 2020 5.0% of working age population in the Related Benefits West of England were claiming unemployment benefits 7.0 (36,840 residents). This is broadly in line with levels seen in October and November 2020.

6.0 There are now 21,065 more claimants in the West of England than there were in February 2020, before the effects of the pandemic hit. 5.0 The rate in the West of England remains below the national rate of 6.4% for December 2020. Bristol has the highest rate of claimants within the LEP, at 6.2% of the working age 4.0 population.

3.0 December 2020 Count % of working age

B&NES 5,000 4.0 2.0 Bristol 19,615 6.2

N.Som 5,680 4.6 1.0

S.Glos 6,540 3.7 0.0 West of England 36,840 5.0 September December March 2019 June 2019 September December March 2020 June 2020 September 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 England 2,234,335 6.4 Bath and North East Somerset Bristol, City of North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England 13 Labour Force Survey Unemployment

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) provides estimates on unemployment in line with ILO definitions, which can provide a more robust picture of unemployment than the claimant count. It Labour Force Survey: Percentage Unemployment Rate is only available at South West level. 6

The LFS unemployment rate has been steadily rising since the start of the COVID pandemic both nationally and in the South West. 5

The SW region rate was consistently lower than the national rate for the two ears before COVID, and was 0.8 percentage points lower in 4 January to March 2020. This gap has closed since the pandemic, but widened again in the September – November period.

Male and female rates have increased similarly between Jan- March 3 and September – November, with increases of 1.0 and 0.8 percentage points respectively. South South South England England England West West West 2 Date male female total male female total Mar -May 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.4 3.7 2020 Apr - Jun 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.3 4.0 1 2020 May -Jul 4.6 4.1 4.4 4.7 3.7 4.2 2020 Jun -Aug 5.1 4.1 4.6 5.3 3.4 4.4 0 2020 Jun 2018-Aug Oct 2018-Dec Feb 2019-Apr Jun 2019-Aug Oct 2019-Dec Feb 2020-Apr Jun 2020-Aug Jul -Sep 5.4 4.5 4.9 5.3 3.3 4.3 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 England male England female England total Aug -Oct 5.5 4.8 5.2 5.5 3.6 4.6 South West male South West female South West total 2020 Sep -Nov 5.6 5.0 5.3 4.8 3.6 4.2 14 2020 Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey Unemployment remains highest in areas with high unemployment pre-covid

15 All areas have seen a rise in the number of claimants

16 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – employment and education

Indices of multiple deprivation (IMD) are widely-used datasets within Employment the UK to classify the relative deprivation (essentially a measure of LSOAs in top poverty) of small areas. Multiple indices of deprivation are provided, Local Authority LSOAs in top 20% 10% reflecting types of deprivation, which can compiled into a single score of deprivation. Bath and North East Somerset 5 1 The employment and education indices are particularly interesting from a Bristol, City of 65 33 labour market perspective. North Somerset 20 13 Employment South Gloucestershire 4 0

Every local authority in the West of England LEP has some lower super output areas that fall in the top 20% most deprived nationally, in terms of Education employment deprivation. Bristol has the significant majority, although North Somerset also has a relatively high number. LSOAs in top LSOAs in top Local Authority 20% 10% Education

Every local authority in the West of England LEP has some lower super Bath and North East Somerset 11 7 output areas that fall in the top 20% and top 10% most deprived Bristol, City of 59 40 nationally, in terms of education deprivation. Bristol has the significant North Somerset 12 7 majority at both levels. South Gloucestershire 18 6 Deprivation by ward, showing how many LSOAs fall into the most deprived by ward level, is available in the appendix. Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation , how these indices are calculated can be found here 17 Salaries over time

Salaries in the West of England LEP are slightly higher than the national average. In 2020 the West of England average Median Earnings, £ per annum salary was £26,662 for all workers, 2.3% higher than the national 29,000 average.

For full-time workers, the average salary was £32,442, and for 28,000 part time it was £11,790. 27,000 Full-time working males earned, on average, £7,413 a year more than full-time working females. 26,000

Males in the West of England LEP also earned slightly more 25,000 than the national average (3.1%). This is was true for females also, but to a lesser extent (0.7%) 24,000

23,000 Median Salary West of England LEP, Difference Date to National Average Female Male 22,000 2014 1.5% 1.2% 2.0% 21,000 2015 3.7% 1.5% 3.0%

2016 1.3% -0.3% 3.2% 20,000 2017 -2.4% -3.2% 1.9% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 -0.8% -0.1% 1.3% West of England LEP Bath and North East Somerset Bristol, City of North Somerset 2019 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% South Gloucestershire England 2020 2.3% -0.9% 1.4% 18 Source: ONS, ASHE Zero-hours contracts

The number of people in zero hours contacts increased in the South West region between the April-June 2019 and April-June 2020, from 83,000 to 93,000*. This is broadly in line with increases at a UK level. Percentage or people on 0 hours contacts, April to June These numbers equate to 3.6% of female and 2.8% of males working in 0 hour contracts. 6.0

In terms of age, 16-24 year olds are the most likely to work on 0 hours 5.0 contracts, comprising of 9.9% of those employed in this age group.

Such employees are vulnerable during recessions as employers can 4.0 more easily reduce these employees hours to 0.

*Rounded to nearest thousand due to sample size 3.0

2020 2.0 In employment on a zero-hours Percentage of contract people on a zero- 1.0 - (thousands) hours contract A-E Production, including agriculture 47 4.4 0.0 F Construction 32 3.1 G Wholesale and retail 119 11.3 I Accommodation and food 237 22.6 J-M Information, finance, professional 56 5.3 N Admin and support services 65 6.2 O Public admin 20 1.9 2019 2020 P Education 101 9.6 Q Health and social work 207 19.7 R,S,T+H Transport, arts, other services 167 15.9 Source: ONS Zero-hour contract analysis, based on LFS 19 Total 1,052 100.0 Furlough

▪ 13.7% of the UK workforce were estimated to remain on furlough leave through the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), based on the most recent ONS Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey, reflecting the dates between 14 to 27 December 2020. This period coincided with the introduction of tier 4 restrictions for certain areas.

▪ As of 31 December 2020, 60,800 West of England employees were estimated to be on furlough, representing around 11% of those eligible.

▪ Recent Government analysis estimates that 90% of employees who left the CJRS in the UK between April and July this year were still on their original payroll in August. The below table shows the percentage of employees remaining on their original payroll for different sectors in the UK.

Source: HMRC Coronavirus statistics, CRJS statistics: secondary analysis, ONS Business insights and impact on the UK economy (14 Jan) 20 Self Employed Income Support Scheme – Tranche 2

The SEISS supports self-employed individuals and is run in tranches, with windows within which individuals can apply for grants. Due to Claim by sector, South West the way data is received, it is only possible to conduct sector analyses on individual tranches of the SEISS. This analysis looks at tranche 2, for which claims were accepted between the Unknown and other 17/08/2020 and 19/10/2020. Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles… As of 30 October, 2,034,000 claims had been made to the SEISS Transportation and storage tranche 2. 39,700 of these were in the West of England LEP. Real estate activities Claims by sector is available at a South West level. Public administration and defence; compulsory social… Construction is the largest sector in terms of both number of Professional, scientific and technical activities claims and the total value of claims. The South West construction Other service activities sector contributed slightly less to the total number of claims than the England average (31% of claims compared to 35% of claims). Manufacturing That said, in terms in the total financial value of claims, the South Information and communication West construction sector contributed more than the England Human health and social work activities average (42% of total value of claims compared to 38%). Financial and insurance activities Other sectors with a high number of claims are: Education ▪ Administrative and support service activities Construction ▪ Other services Arts, entertainment and recreation Agriculture, forestry and fishing ▪ Transport and storage Administrative and support service activities ▪ Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles Accommodation and food service activities

Many claims are not categorised by sector and fall into Unknown 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% and other, which reflects the broad nature of self-employed work. England propotion of total claims SW proportion of total claims Source: HMRC Self Employed Income Support Scheme Statistics, November 2020 Data up to 30/10/2021 21 Covers only Tranche 2 claims Self Employed Income Support Scheme by gender Number of claims and average claim value, by gender £ Males make up a greater proportion of Self Employed Income Support Claims Scheme (SEISS) tranche 2 claimants than females – for the West of England LEP, males comprise of 68.7% of claims to the October September 2020. 14,000 3,500

This is likely to be driven by the sectors males are more likely to work 12,000 3,000 in, such as construction, which also operates with a high volume of self- employed people. 10,000 2,500 The average claim made to the scheme is also higher for males than females. The greatest difference is in South Gloucestershire, which has the highest average male claim and lowest average female claim, 8,000 2,000 £3,100 and £2,000 respectively.

6,000 1,500

Average Number of Average 4,000 1,000 Number of claim claims claim LA claims male male female female 2,000 500 Bristol, City of (UA) 12,100 £2,700 5,000 £2,000

0 0 Bath and North East Bristol, City of (UA) Bath and North East North Somerset UA South Gloucestershire Somerset UA 4,100 £2,900 2,200 £2,100 Somerset UA UA

North Somerset UA 4,600 £2,900 2,400 £2,100 Number of claims male Number of claims female Average claim male Average claim female South Gloucestershire UA 6,500 £3,100 2,800 £2,000

Data up to 30/10/2021 Source: ONS Self Employed Income Support Scheme Statistics, November 2020 22 Tranche 2 only CURRENT LABOUR MARKET DEMAND Job postings

▪ According to burning-glass analysis tool, there were 12,840 unique Job Postings Over Time (West of England)

job postings advertised in the West of England in December 2020, 18000 up 85.30% on the year low of April 2020,suggesting recovery in 16000 terms of available jobs. This is slightly below the levels seen before the pandemic. 14000 12000 ▪ The impact of changes in number of jobs available as a result of 10000 lockdown measures and social distancing became visible in April, 8000

with significantly fewer jobs advertised. This has risen in last few 6000 months and is now broadly in line with pre-crises levels. 4000

▪ Comparing the type of jobs advertised by industry, the recovery 2000 has in part been driven by increases in the number of postings in 0 IT jobs, as well as human health and social care. Moderate recoveries have also been seen in most sectors, although many are not yet at pre-pandemic levels. Top Occupations in December 2020 (West of England)

▪ Programmers and software development professionals (790) Job postings levels and associated analytics are highly sensitive to the ▪ Nurse (493) web-scraping tool used. Sensitivity analysis has been undertaken and, although levels differ between tools, trends over time are similar – ▪ Care workers and home carers (427) analysing trends rather than totals is therefore advised. ▪ Managers and proprietors in other services (358) ▪ Sales related occupations (290)

Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass) 24 Remote working

Remote working has slowly being growing as in the last few years, in line with economic predictions of a more digitally connected workforce. This trend has been accelerated by COVID. The graph below shows job postings from West of England LEP based employers that are remote roles (excluding recruitment agencies, as they may post remote jobs from other regions). This growth has largely been driven by Professional Service Occupations, including computer programmers, sales professionals and finance.

West of England Job postings including word 'remote' 1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

25 Source: Burning Glass Skills demand

• IT skills feature in the top ‘hard skill’ demands from job adverts. Skills demanded (December 2020) % of postings These skills are transferable and are useful in both the IT industry itself, as well as in other industries. Customer Service 14.3% Teamwork / Collaboration 14.0% • Financial skills (budgeting and accounting) and healthcare related skills are also frequently demanded. Other business Budgeting 10.4% related skills are also frequently demanded, such as business Teaching 10.0% development, project management and stakeholder management. Project Management 8.7% Sales 7.4% • Customer service and teamwork / collaboration are the most frequently demanded skill, at 14.3% and 14.0% of adverts Accounting 5.2% respectively. Software Development 5.1% • The skills that feature most frequently align with some of the Business Development 4.9% more resilient sectors to the COVID economic downturn, such Customer Contact 4.8% as ‘Information and Communication’ , ‘Energy Production’ and ‘Finance and Insurance. Cleaning 4.7% Stakeholder Management 4.5% • ‘Soft’ and general employability skills are frequently required in vacancies. This highlights their importance for those out of Software Engineering 4.4% work Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) 4.4% • Many skills fall somewhere in the middle between hard and soft. For example, Project Management is a frequently sought Working With Patient And/Or Condition: Mental Health 4.3% after skill, which draws on a combination of soft skills and hard, subject specific knowledge. Microsoft C# 4.3% JavaScript 4.2% • Note: Web-scraping data (Labour Insight) gives us an indication of skills demand from job adverts. Given that jobs with higher Python 3.8% turnover (for example, hospitality) recruit more often due to Administrative Support 3.8% churn in roles, this should be treated indicatively only. SQL 3.7% * Out of a total of 12,840 postings

Source: Burning Glass 26 Transferrable and commonly sought Skills

From the evidence available, demand appears to be Top Occupations Advertised strong for individuals with technology skills, as well as skills in finance and business. Occupational Family Job Postings Many more traditional, more vocational roles also experience demand, such as those in healthcare, teaching assistants and education professionals and Software Developer / Engineer 705 carers. Key areas of high-demand skills include:

(1) STEM subjects – these are the basis of many Registered General Nurse (RGN) 387 technological jobs.

(2) Digital/technology skills – these are applicable both Project Manager 316 within the important and resilient IT, creative and digital sectors, as well as in a variety of other jobs such as finance and investment roles. Office / Administrative Assistant 295 (3) Specific vocations – training for specific jobs currently in demand (based on evidence), for Caregiver / Personal Care Aide 230 example warehouse operatives and HGV drivers, care workers, teachers and nurses. Teaching Assistant 200

Care assistant 195

Source: Emsi Economic Modelling 27 Apprenticeships

Adverts with the word ‘apprenticeship’ experienced a spike in postings leading up to July in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, in line with the end of the academic year. In 2020, we have seen the opposite happen, with a downward trend in postings. This has started to reverse in the months since August, with increases in postings seen every month since. Sector groups have highlighted the difficulties they are facing regarding keeping on current apprentices, hiring new ones, and the trade offs between both. (Note – totals are not comparable to other job postings slides, as a different software is used to obtain apprenticeship postings).

28 Source: Emsi Economic Modelling APPENDIX Regional Specialisms

Location GVA National The West of England has some specialist Sector Quotient % of GVA Quotient Change % industries, which employ more people Vehicle and Defence Technology 1.75 2.79% 1.73 2% proportionally than the national average, as show by the Location Quotient (LQ). For example, Civil Engineering 1.45 4.89% 1.30 6% Vehicle and Defence Technology has an LQ of 1.75, Utility 1.4 1.61% 0.78 -3% meaning this industry is 1.75 larger than the UK Education and Knowledge Creation 1.38 2.74% 1.04 0% average for an area of the same size. Government 1.36 6.00% 1.36 4% Looking at this alongside the proportion of GVA Local Environmental Services 1.21 0.71% 1.20 6% these industries deliver, we can see some areas of Creative 1.19 1.72% 0.71 4% specialisation that deliver a significant proportion Property Development 1.14 6.38% 0.84 -1% of the GVA, for example: Construction Products and Services 1.14 0.21% 1.01 -1% • Civil Engineering Financial and Legal Services 1.1 9.80% 0.97 -8% • Education and Knowledge Creation Printing and Publishing 1.08 1.14% 1.15 -7% Digital 1.07 4.98% 0.93 -6% • Creative Health and Care 1.07 8.44% 1.00 2% • Financial and Legal Services Sports and Leisure 1.05 1.15% 0.65 3% Metalworking Technology 1.04 0.56% 1.32 4% • Digital Passenger Transport 1.03 0.64% 1.09 -1% Food and Beverage 1.02 4.89% 0.87 2% Automotive Services 1.01 1.85% 0.96 -2% 30 Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data Employment Rate – Time Series

• The employment rate has remained broadly stable since March 2017. Percentage of West of England LEP residents aged 16-64 • Males have a consistently higher employment rate than currently employed females, but the gap has decreased in size since March 2017. 84

• The impact of COVID does not appear to be showing in the 82 employment rates. This is possibly due to sample size and the fact that it is a ‘year to date’ measure so could flatten trends. 80

Male 16- 78 Date (12 months to) Residents 16-64 64 Female 16-64 Apr 2016-Mar 2017 78 80.7 75.2 76 Jul 2016-Jun 2017 78.2 81.2 75.3 Oct 2016-Sep 2017 78.5 81.7 75.3 74 Jan 2017-Dec 2017 78.6 82.1 75.1 Apr 2017-Mar 2018 78.1 81.5 74.6 72 Jul 2017-Jun 2018 78.9 82.2 75.5 Oct 2017-Sep 2018 78.4 81.1 75.6 Jan 2018-Dec 2018 79.1 81.6 76.5 70 Apr 2018-Mar 2019 79.5 82.5 76.4 Jul 2018-Jun 2019 79.4 82 76.7 Oct 2018-Sep 2019 79.7 82.3 77 Jan 2019-Dec 2019 78.8 81.3 76.3 Apr 2019-Mar 2020 79 80.7 77.2 Residents 16-64 Male 16-64 Female 16-64 Jul 2019-Jun 2020 78.6 80.9 76.2 Oct 2019-Sep 2020 78.7 80.7 76.6 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 31 Claimants Aged 16-24

As of December 2020 there were 7,405 claimants aged between 16—24; 4.8% of the population in that age Percentage of residents 16-24 claiming unemployment related cohort. benefits

This is broadly in line with the rates in October and 8.0 November 2020, however, represents an increase of 161% from March 2020 - equating to an additional 4,565 young 7.0 claimants.

All four unitary authorities in the West of England have seen 6.0 a spike in the number of young claimants; ranging from 3.3% of the cohort in Bath and North East Somerset to 6.4% in 5.0 North Somerset 4.0 Despite the sharp increase in ‘young’ claimants, the rate in the West of England and the four unitary authority remains below the national rate of 7.2%. 3.0

December 2020 Count % of age group 2.0 1,065 B&NES 3.3 3,760 1.0 Bristol 5.2 N.Som 1,155 6.4 0.0 July 2018 November March 2019 July 2019 November March 2020 July 2020 November 1,425 S.Glos 4.8 2018 2019 2020 7,405 West of England 4.8 B&NES Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England 429,185 England 7.2 32 Claimants Aged 50+

As of December 2020 there were 7,740 claimants aged 50+; 3.9% of the population in that age cohort. Percentage of residents 50+ claiming unemployment related benefits This is broadly in line with the rates seen since May 2020, 6.0 however represents an increase of 117% ‘older’ claimants since March 2020, equating to an additional 4,165 people.

All four unitary authorities in the West of England have seen 5.0 a spike in the number of ‘older’ claimants; ranging from 2.6% of the cohort South Gloucestershire to 5.4% in Bristol. 4.0 The rate of ‘older’ claimants in the West of England remains below the national rate of 5.0%; however the rate in Bristol exceeds the national rate. 3.0

December 2020 Count % of age group 2.0 B&NES 1,215 3.5

Bristol 3,575 5.4 1.0 N.Som 1,505 3.4

S.Glos 1,445 2.6 0.0 7,740 3.9 July 2018 November March 2019 July 2019 November March 2020 July 2020 November West of England 2018 2019 2020 B&NES Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England England 532,030 5.0 33 Employment Rate

• In the year to September 2020, the employment rate for the Employed Rate West of England was 78.7%; higher than the national rate at Group 76.0%. All - aged 50+ 179,500 44.1

• Working age males had an employment rate of 80.7%, 4.1 All - aged 16-24 84,500 61.0 percentage points greater than the rate for working age females. All - aged 16-64 584,800 78.7

• COVID is expected to reduce the employment rate, but the sample size of the Annual Population Survey as well as its Males - aged 50+ 91,900 47.4 ‘year to date’ measurement of the data is thought to be stopping this showing significantly at a regional level Males - aged 16-24 47,100 60.0

• Time series analysis and local authority analysis available in Males - aged 16-64 306,300 80.7 the appendix Females - aged 50+ 87,600 41.2

Female - aged 16-24 37,400 62.2

Females - aged 16-64 278,500 76.6

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 2021 34 Employment Rate – Oct 2019- Sept 2020

West of Bath and North South Group England LEP East Somerset Bristol, City of Gloucestershire England

Employment rate - aged 50+ 44.1 43.3 45.8 44.3 42.7

Employment rate - aged 16-24 61.0 60.6 55.0 65.7 53.1

Employment rate males - aged 50+ 47.4 48.3 48.1 47.0 47.0

Employment rate males - aged 16-24 60.0 63.1 55.4 59.5 52.8

Employment rate females - aged 50+ 41.2 38.6 43.5 41.9 38.8

Employment rate females - aged 16-24 62.2 58.0 54.4 72.7 53.4

Employment rate - aged 16-64 78.7 79.7 75.8 81.6 76.0

Employment rate males - aged 16-64 80.7 84.5 76.8 82.6 79.5

Employment rate females - aged 16-64 76.6 74.8 74.6 80.5 72.4 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey; 35 Note: All data relates covers the 12 month period up to September 2020 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – education deprivation Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% LSOA in Ward 10%

Bath and North East Somerset Combe Down 1 1 Bath and North East Somerset Keynsham North 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Keynsham South 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Peasedown 1 1 Bath and North East Somerset Radstock 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Southdown 1 1 Bath and North East Somerset Twerton 4 4 Bath and North East Somerset Westfield 1 0 Bristol, City of 2 0 Bristol, City of 9 7 Bristol, City of 1 1

Bristol, City of and Withywood 12 12

Bristol, City of and Brentry 3 2

Bristol, City of and 5 2 Bristol, City of Hillfields 3 1 Bristol, City of Horfield 1 0 Bristol, City of Knowle 3 3 Bristol, City of Lawrence Hill 7 5 Bristol, City of 2 2 Bristol, City of 5 3

36 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – education deprivation cont.

Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% LSOA in Ward 10%

Bristol, City of St George Central 2 0 Bristol, City of 2 2 Bristol, City of 1 0 Bristol, City of Windmill Hill 1 0

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Central 2 1

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Mid Worle 1 0

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Milton 2 0

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare South 6 6

North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Winterstoke 1 0 South Gloucestershire Dodington 1 0 South Gloucestershire 1 0 South Gloucestershire Kings Chase 2 1 South Gloucestershire 1 0 South Gloucestershire Parkwall 2 2 South Gloucestershire 3 1 South Gloucestershire Rodway 3 0 South Gloucestershire Staple Hill 2 1 South Gloucestershire Thornbury South and Alveston 1 0 South Gloucestershire Yate Central 1 0 South Gloucestershire Yate North 1 1

37 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – employment deprivation

LSOA in Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% Ward 10% Bath and North East Somerset Combe Down 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Southdown 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Twerton 3 1 Bristol, City of Ashley 2 0

Bristol, City of and Lawrence Weston 5 2 Bristol, City of 1 0 Bristol, City of East 2 0 Bristol, City of 1 1 Bristol, City of Central 2 2 Bristol, City of Easton 1 0 Bristol, City of Eastville 2 0 Bristol, City of Filwood 7 4 Bristol, City of Frome Vale 2 1 Bristol, City of Hartcliffe and Withywood 11 9 Bristol, City of Henbury and Brentry 2 1 Bristol, City of Hengrove and Whitchurch Park 3 1 Bristol, City of Hillfields 2 1

38 Indices of Multiple Deprivation – employment deprivation cont.

Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% LSOA in Ward 10% Bristol, City of Horfield 1 0 Bristol, City of Knowle 2 2 Bristol, City of Lawrence Hill 7 6 Bristol, City of Lockleaze 2 0 Bristol, City of Southmead 4 1 Bristol, City of Southville 1 0

Bristol, City of St George Central 2 0 Bristol, City of Stockwood 2 2 Bristol, City of Stoke Bishop 1 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset Central 6 5 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset Hillside 2 2 Weston-super-Mare Mid North Somerset Worle 1 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset Milton 3 0

Weston-super-Mare North Somerset North Worle 1 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset South 7 6 South Gloucestershire Kings Chase 1 0 South Gloucestershire Patchway 1 0 South Gloucestershire Staple Hill 2 0 39