AICCM Bulletin
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Mapping climate change and risks for Australian cultural collections
Amanda Pagliarino & Ainslee Meredith
To cite this article: Amanda Pagliarino & Ainslee Meredith (2020) Mapping climate change and risks for Australian cultural collections, AICCM Bulletin, 41:1, 3-26, DOI: 10.1080/10344233.2020.1788881 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/10344233.2020.1788881
Published online: 17 Dec 2020.
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AMANDA PAGLIARINO AND AINSLEE MEREDITH Queensland Art Gallery|Gallery of Modern Art, Brisbane, Australia Grimwade Centre for Cultural Materials Conservation, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
The climate change variables of temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and fire weather are used in conjunction with spatial methodologies to produce maps that overlay locations of Australian national, state and regional cul- tural heritage collections with climate change risks. The data analysis of these maps is evaluated in relation to the biological risks of insect pests and mould using published studies and recent observations. Mapping both the distribution of cultural heritage collections and potential environmental impacts allows for future risks to collec- tions to be modelled, producing an evidence base for identifying future priorities for conservation. An historical study of the development of arts policy and conservation guidelines in Australia places the investigation of changing climate and risks within a broader national cultural heritage context. In understanding how Australian cultural heritage collections, and the conservation profession more broadly, might become more sustainable and resilient, the use of environmental guidelines in conjunction with predictive climate mapping resources is recommended.
KEYWORDS: Heritage preservation, Cultural materials conservation, Cultural heritage, Environmental guidelines, Climate change, Climate projections
INTRODUCTION are likely to vary by geographical location. As highly The international conservation community is shifting significant cultural collections and exhibition spaces towards considering cultural heritage together with may be found in all regions of the continent, under- ecosystem science to acknowledge the interdependence standing the regional geographic impacts of climate of the natural and cultural worlds. This movement has change is an important step in planning for the future two main elements of interest for conservators and the conservation of Australia’s cultural heritage. This conservation sector. Firstly, it argues for the necessity of study demonstrates how mapping changes to climatic limiting the effects of preservation activities on the sur- risk factors against the location of collections can link rounding environment. Secondly, it reminds us that a climate change trends to preservation needs. There are concern for sustainability—of resources, practices, many risks and agents of deterioration that in combi- and cultures—underscores the ethos of conservation. nation affect the condition of cultural heritage collec- Addressing this shift in thinking, the Australian Insti- tions. Changing climatic conditions will influence all tute for the Conservation of Cultural Material of these factors to some extent; specifically, this paper (AICCM) established the Sustainable Collections Com- focuses on fire risk and the biological risks of insect mittee to lead project work, and in late ratified the pests and mould. Environmental Guidelines for Australian Cultural As Australia becomes warmer, environmental guide- Heritage Collections (AICCM ). Developments lines for collections will require periodic revision to also include references to culture in the United ensure that collection management practices continue Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals for to develop in response to climate change, weather pat- (UN ), and the launch of the Climate Heritage terns and events, and environmentally aware practices. Network in Edinburgh in October . This paper provides an historical account of the devel- To further develop this approach to heritage and the opment of guidelines through cultural and heritage pol- environment, climate science is used to bring icies in Australia, recognising the long engagement of large-scale, evidence-based data collection and analysis conservation practitioners with sustainability ques- of the risks posed by climate change to the management tions. Following this historical overview, the results of of cultural heritage collections in Australia. These risks a mapping project undertaken to overlay climate
* Corresponding author: [email protected]
© The Australian Institute for the Conservation of Cultural Materials DOI: ./.. AICCM Bulletin , Vol. , No. , – AMANDA PAGLIARINO AND AINSLEE MEREDITH change projections with maps of collection locations in party consultation but was short-lived as, just months Australia are presented. Overlay maps produced later, the policy was shelved by the incoming Abbott through this research illustrate potential future Coalition government (Meyrick & Barnett ). climate scenarios at three timescales (short-term ; Arts as a portfolio continued to be undervalued, and mid-term ; and long-term ) using two green- in late was further weakened when the federal house gas Representative Concentration Pathways Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (RCP) at two different emission scenarios correspond- announced an Administrative Arrangements Order to ing to continued intermediate-level emissions reduce the number of federal government departments (RCP.), and increased high-level emissions from February , which consequently buried the (RCP.) (IPCC ). Datasets of two collection Arts portfolio in a mega-department (Australian Gov- types were analysed: (a) national and state-owned col- ernment Department of the Prime Minister and lections, and (b) regional art galleries associated with Cabinet ). The subsuming of the Department of local councils. The maps show changes in the distri- Communications and the Arts (–) into the bution of climate variables (temperature, relative newly created Department of Infrastructure, Transport, humidity (RH) and rainfall) in relation to the location Regional Development and Communications, leaves the of these heritage collections. Fire risk has also been sector with no outward profile at a federal level. As many assessed but not mapped at this stage. commentators observed at the time, the loss of the word Continuing the local focus, the paper further con- ‘arts’ from the title of the department responsible for siders issues that intersect with the changing climate in policy development, service and program delivery Australia. These include buildings and facilities, (including of grants), legislation and regulatory manage- weather events, energy security and efficiency, tempera- ment has the effect of downgrading the arts, culture and ture and RH guidelines, and observations on pest and heritage sectors (AMaGA ; ICOM Australia ). mould activity in collections. Questions relating to In a statement opposing the merger of the departments, these issues were raised with the profession in the Col- ICOM Australia noted the potential ramifications in the lection Environment Survey (AICCM ). The Asia-Pacific and other regions of this change: survey revealed that % of respondents that identified as national, state or regional galleries and museums As a member of a global network of museum and (highlighted in this study) are dependent upon heating, heritage professionals committed to the world’s ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) and evapora- natural and cultural heritage, ICOM Australia’s tive or refrigerated air cooling (AC). Encouragingly, concerns extend even further. The visibility of our the survey also revealed that of these organisations, sector is vital to the well-being of our neighbouring % have invested in one or more energy saving regions, and can influence the allocation of measures such as solar panels, insulation, energy resources as well as the extent to which traditional efficient lighting systems, improvements to building and contemporary cultures are valued, shared and fabric, and modified air-conditioning strategies. preserved. (ICOM Australia ,n.p.)
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL The focus and momentum achieved through the Creative Nation policy led to important outcomes GUIDELINES FOR CULTURAL HERITAGE for the conservation sector. In , the government Cultural heritage practice within Australia is shaped by released a conservation and preservation policy, and industry and political forces (see Sloggett ). The in the context of cultural heritage conservation, Slog- advancement of arts and culture through government gett () identifies this moment as a pivotal national policy-making has been slow, fragmentary and subject achievement, stating that: to factional influence. Australia’s first cultural policy, Creative Nation, was released by the Keating Labour Australia became an international leader in the government in (Department of Communications conservation of cultural materials when it and the Arts ). Creative Nation was a watershed became one of the few countries to endorse a moment, elevating what in the past were considered per- national policy for movable cultural heritage. ipheral artistic and cultural pursuits to be fundamental Developed in response to much broader political elements in the development of national identity. interests in cultural heritage and the associated Meyrick and Barnett () note that this policy considerations of access and conservation, the ‘marks the moment when Australia’s artistic life policy addressed platforms relating to the con- merged with its economic prospects … A transition to servation of heritage collections: their value, the a ‘whole way of life’ view of culture was announced’ need to reflect national diversity, significance as a (p. ). But it then took nearly years for the govern- guiding principle, the importance of preservation, ment to build on the success of Creative Nation with a rights to access, aligning access with preservation, new national cultural policy, Creative Australia the value of a coordinated approach and the need (Department of Regional Australia, Local Government, to raise understanding, the need for coordinated Arts and Sport ). This was delivered in by the training and education, and the need for research Gillard Labor government following industry and cross- to support conservation and preservation (p. ).
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In , the Heritage Collections Council (HCC) The AICCM National Council, wanting to respond published the National Conservation and Preservation to the joint declaration and to develop a more Policy and Strategy: Australia’s Heritage Collections. thoroughly researched position reflecting the Australian The strategy outlined five key elements: significance, context, established the Environmental Guidelines skill development, collection management, research, Project through the Sustainable Collections Committee. and raising awareness. One of the outcomes identified Following three years of community consultation and in the strategy was to ‘develop guidelines and standards information sharing, the AICCM National Council on appropriate environmental conditions in buildings ratified the Environmental Guidelines for Australian that house collections’ (HCC ,p.). In , Cultural Heritage Collections in late (AICCM at the conclusion of its term, the HCC published Guide- ). The revised guidelines expanded the scope of lines for Environmental Control in Cultural Insti- the interim position, outlining two temperature and tutions. This was a milestone document, unique in its RH specifications covering temperate and subtropical/ strategies for collection management and its focus on tropical climate zones, widening the RH specifications local climate types. The manual provided the national to –% and –% respectively, and increasing cultural heritage profession with a framework for sus- the temperature range to –°C. To ensure the guide- tainable collection care and three climate-specific temp- lines are responsive to sector needs and changing erature and RH guidelines for temperate, hot dry, and climate, the AICCM intends to regularly review its pos- hot humid regions. ition with respect to the guiding principles of sustain- At this time, the established source of guidelines for ability and resilience, adaptive and proactive the collection environment was Garry Thomson’s The practices, and maintaining relevance (AICCM ). Museum Environment, published in and revised While there is growing professional confidence in in . Kirby Atkinson () summarises Thomson’s broadening temperature and RH parameters for storage approach as a ‘balanced discussion based on the behav- and display environments, there remains a reluctance iour of different materials, as far as this was known, and within the sector to adopt a similar approach to the man- the values for RH suggested were appropriate for the agement of cultural objects on national and international prevailing climate of the region and the objects in the col- temporary loan. Taylor and Boersma ()identified lection’ (p. ). Thomson () offered recommen- that the uniform approach and common language that dations for indoor RH ranging between and %, developed around the use of Thomson’smedianpar- identifying humid and arid as climatic extremes ameters has become entrenched in lending practices. (p. ). His observations and predictions were astute; Specifically, the authors write that ‘despite this evolution he noted ‘that there is a pretty strong tendency in thinking about environmental conditions, the ghost of towards middle-of-the-range values for RH [and that “ideal conditions”, particularly %or%RH, the practice of lending] will strengthen a trend towards remains implicitly if not explicitly in loan conditions, median RH values ( or %)’ (p. ). It is perhaps environmental targets, and policy’ (p. ). areflection of both the technical complexity inherent in The persistence of rigid environmental loan con- determining appropriate environmental parameters for ditions in Australian conservation practice was a range of situations, and a desire for operational simpli- confirmed in the results of the Collection Environment city that Thomson’s prediction transpired. The pro- Survey (AICCM ), which revealed that nearly fession adopted the median values of or %± % of cultural heritage organisations revert to the RH as the default standard for the care of collections, use of Thomson’s median values when lending, despite and embedded this as an international standard for the wider temperature and RH parameters being in use for care of cultural material on loan, thus enforcing a rigid the control of their own collection environments. Recog- and difficult-to-achieve convention for environmental nising that a supported and cooperative approach was control across regions and institutions. necessary to bring about a change in lending protocol, Within the international cultural heritage commu- a paper recommending the adoption of wider tempera- nity, however, debates persisted about temperature ture and RH parameters was submitted to the Council and RH specifications for collection care and lending, of Australian Art Museum Directors (CAAMD ) energy efficiency, environmentally aware practices, for consideration at the March meeting. The and sustainability. In , the AICCM published the CAAMD Directors subsequently endorsed the Bizot Environmental Guidelines Taskforce report: An Green Protocol for loans and agreed to implement interim position which offered temperature and RH this guideline to manage works of art exchanged specifications based on ‘those developed by pro- between the CAAMD member organisations. This col- fessional conservation groups internationally, most lective approach demonstrates a commitment to sustain- notably by the American Institute for Conservation’ able practices, and provides members with a common (p. ). Later that year, the International Council for understanding and point of reference for negotiations Museums - Committee for Conservation (ICOM-CC) relating to the care of works of art exchanged nationally and the International Institute for Conservation (IIC) and internationally. published a joint declaration outlining broad principles Environmental guidelines form part of a wider based on sustainability and management, collection toolkit that conservators, registrars, collection man- environment, and loans (ICOM-CC ). agers and facilities staff can use to make informed
AICCM Bulletin , Vol. , No. , – AMANDA PAGLIARINO AND AINSLEE MEREDITH decisions about the long-term management of collec- these tend to focus more specifically on museums tions, and the buildings in which collections are rather than a range of collection types (for example, stored and displayed. Complexity and uncertainty is Candlin et al. ). inherent in both the long-term care of cultural heritage material and the mechanisms of changing climate. MAPPING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS However, the use of environmental guidelines in con- junction with predictive climate mapping resources Climate models draw on knowledge of climatic can provide the sector with a powerful discussion and mechanisms, and past observed data, to simulate decision-making tool. changes to the earth’s climate at different times in the future. Climate change projections are ‘informed by sophisticated global climate models, simulating the MAPPING CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISKS climate response to a range of plausible scenarios of how greenhouse gases and aerosols may change MAPPING COLLECTIONS throughout the st century’ (CSIRO & Bureau of Despite the uncertainty associated with predicting Meteorology ,p.). future climatic changes, it is possible to model potential While these scenarios are accepted as credible by the climate scenarios—and their impact on cultural heri- global climate science community, issues of uncertainty tage collections—by using climate change projections and confidence must be considered in the application of developed by the international scientific community. climate models to case studies and impact assessments. The relationship between the external environment, or Uncertainty arises due to three factors: ‘scenario uncer- climate, and internal collection environments is tainty’ relating to the amount of future emissions and complex, and depends on many variables specificto concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols; each climate zone, building type and design, and the ‘response uncertainty’ of the climate system; and operation of environmental control systems. This natural variability in the climate system (CSIRO & research aims to identify and describe potential future Bureau of Meteorology ,p.). Scenario uncer- climate scenarios for Australia, and to discuss these in tainty means that greenhouse gas emissions are highly relation to common risk factors for heritage materials dependent upon human factors such as ‘population which are linked to different climate variables. and economic growth, technological developments In order to assess the future risks posed by climate and transfer, and political and social changes’ change to Australian cultural collections, mapping (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology ,p.). methodologies were developed to overlay maps The climate model applied in this study is the showing the potential impact of climate change on col- ACCESS- model, produced by CSIRO and the lections in various locations. Two sets of collections Bureau of Meteorology as part of the CMIP were mapped: () national, state and territory collec- (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase ). tions run by the Commonwealth and state and territory The performance of climate models, and the accuracy governments; and () regional art galleries associated of their representation of historical and current with local councils. It is acknowledged that many col- climate conditions, is assessed by a comparison of lections in Australia fall outside this purview. However, model results with datasets of high quality climate findings from this study may be extrapolated to other observations (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology collections which are located in similar areas. The ,p.). Compared to other CMIP models, methodology that has been developed for mapping col- ACCESS- has been shown to perform consistently lections against projected climate variables could also well on measures relevant to Australian climate projec- be used for risk assessments for other collections. tions. This has been evaluated using the M statistic or The methodology of mapping enables the analysis, skill score, which measures agreement between simu- representation and visualisation of different kinds of lated and observed climatological fields over a particu- spatial data. Professor May Cassar () writes that: lar region, thus providing a metric of the overall skill of each model in simulating the present climate (CSIRO & Maps provide the best way of presenting complex Bureau of Meteorology , pp. –). ACCESS- risk data to the widest possible audience. Overlay has maximum consensus across many regions in Aus- maps of vulnerable heritage and risk factors are a tralia when historical data for three standard vari- simple and effective means of grasping the overall ables—temperature, rainfall and sea level pressure—is scale of the problems presented by climate compared to model predictions, making it an appropri- change, as well as being a straightforward way ate choice of model for an Australia-wide study. of assessing risks to individual properties. (p. )
METHODS Mapping and other forms of spatial analysis are of increasing interest to conservation and heritage scho- Three time periods were selected for analysis, corre- lars. In addition to the spatial analysis study by Mere- sponding to the short-term future (), mid-term dith, Sloggett and Scott () in Australia, there are (), and long-term (). Each time period was examples from the United Kingdom (UK), though analysed at two RCPs: RCP., to simulate
AICCM Bulletin , Vol. , No. , – MAPPING CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISKS FOR AUSTRALIAN CULTURAL COLLECTIONS intermediate levels of emissions, and RCP., to simu- Slopes and East Coast up to .% drier on average. late high emissions. Four variables were analysed for Projections at RCP. show further decreases in RH, their potential impact upon collections: mean surface particularly in the Rangelands. temperature (°C); average maximum annual daily Alongside average annual RH levels, understanding temperature (°C); relative humidity (RH); and rainfall projected changes to rainfall is necessary to capture (mm). Data was obtained in the format of projected the range of factors that affect indoor collection climate changes relative to the period -. environments. While south-eastern and eastern coastal Further information on scenario selection is provided areas of Australia (East Coast; Central Slopes; Southern in Appendix . Slopes; Murray Basin) may see a seasonal decrease in Maps of each variable at each time period and RCP rainfall, the intensity of extreme rainfall events is pro- were created and overlaid with maps showing the jected to increase in all areas except the Southern and locations of representative Australian cultural collections. South-Western Flatlands, which are likely to spend more time in drought. CLIMATE SCENARIOS FIRE WEATHER TEMPERATURE fi All areas in Australia will experience an increase in In March , following widespread bush res in fi average annual temperature over the next century the preceding summer, CSIRO con rmed the link fi regardless of climate scenario. Increases to the annual between climate change and bush res: mean surface temperature by are likely to be in the range of .–.°C across the continent. In the Climate change has led to longer, more intense fi mid-term, by the level of projected warming re seasons and an increase in the average fi differs by climate scenario. At RCP., the annual number of elevated re weather days, as mean surface temperature rises in the range of –°C, measured by the Forest Fire Danger Index while at RCP., increases of up to °C may be seen (FFDI). Last year [ ] saw the highest annual in Western areas of the Rangelands. As expected, the accumulated FFDI on record. (CSIRO , n.p.) timeframe with the greatest uncertainty in projections is the long-term. By ,atRCP. warming is pro- Fire weather is complex to predict as it depends on fi jected to be in the range of -°C. At RCP., several different variables. In Australia, re weather is warming may be >°C in the Rangelands, Monsoonal calculated using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger North, and Central Slopes. Index (FFDI) from daily temperature, wind speed, In addition to annually averaged warming, extreme humidity and a drought factor (CSIRO & Bureau of ‘ ’ temperatures are also expected to increase in both fre- Meteorology ,p. ). However, four switches fi quency and intensity. King, Karoly and Henley () are necessary for bush res to occur: ignition, fuel load, find that ‘such extreme heat events would be common- fuel dryness and suitable weather conditions (hot, dry place in either the .°C or °C warmer world and are and windy) (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology , significantly more frequent in a °C world than a .°C p. ). The FFDI only accounts for climatological world’ (p. ). Increases to the maximum annual daily factors, not human or other environmental variables temperature are projected to be in the range of .–.° which may contribute to ignition and fuel load. fi Cby. The projected increases are highest (up to To predict future re weather, changes are usually .°C) in areas of the Rangelands and the Central modelled over four regions with similar climatic con- Slopes. These observations correlate with the IPCC’s ditions: Southern Australia, Northern Australia, Eastern () assessment that ‘it is virtually certain that there Australia, and Rangelands (Figure ). The FFDI is used fi will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature to produce re danger ratings from to ,wherea – extremes over most land areas on daily and seasonal danger index of indicates low-moderate danger; – – – timescales as global mean temperatures increase’ (p. ). high danger; very high danger; severe danger; – extreme danger; and > cata- strophic danger. The cumulative annual FFDI, which HUMIDITY AND RAINFALL adds up the fire danger index of each day of the year, is Average annual near-surface RH tends to decrease also used to study change over time. For instance, projec- over the next century, but changes in the short term tions by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology () are likely to be small. This analysis will therefore show that the cumulative annual FFDI, and the number focus on long-term changes by . There is also a of severe fire danger days (FFDI > ), increase for both seasonal element to these changes, as winter and RCP. and RCP. in the short-term () and long- spring will tend to be drier in most areas; changes for term () compared to a baseline for all four summer and autumn are less confidently projected. regions (p. ). A paper published in late by At RCP. in , some coastal areas, as well as Dowdy et al. while using different modelling approaches, central Australia, may experience slightly higher levels similarly projects ‘a future increase in the severity of near- of annual average RH. Most inland areas, by contrast, surface fire weather conditions as represented by the FFDI will be drier, with parts of the Murray Basin, Central for almost all regions throughout Australia’ (p. ).
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FIGURE . Map of the four NRM super-clusters used to study fire weather. NRM super-cluster shapefiles provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited March .
Confidence in projections of changes to fire weather temperatures are also known to be one cause of an varies across the country due to regional differences increase in bushfire risk measured in FFDI days in the component variables that determine fire risk. (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology ,p.). Increases to the average forest fire danger index and The level of risk posed by higher temperatures to number of days with severe fire danger can be predicted specific collections will also vary due to endogenous with high confidence for Southern and Eastern Austra- factors such as the collection’s infrastructure, lia only. The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology history, and the availability of resources such as () report medium confidence in the prediction of HVAC systems. little change in fire frequency in tropical and monsoonal By overlaying maps of collection locations on northern Australia, and low confidence in projections climate change projections, it becomes possible to of fire weather in the Rangelands where fuel avail- compare the levels of risk to collections across differ- ability, dependent on episodic rainfall, is a major ent regions. While the majority of Australia’s factor in determining fire risk (p. ). However, in national, state and territory collections are located both Southern and Eastern Australia, warmer and in coastal areas, inland areas are likely to be slightly drier climates are expected to lead to worsening fire more affected by climate warming. However, by weather (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology , , both intermediate and high emissions scenarios p. ). In these regions, the number of severe fire show mean temperature increases of >.°C across danger days (FFDI >) is also expected to increase. the continent (Figures and ). Canberra, the city Regional climatic differences also mean that the with the most national and state collections, and the timing of the fire season varies across the country. only inland capital city, is likely to warm by –.° C at RCP. (Figure ), and by .°C at RCP. (Figure ). Several regional galleries could see external RISKS mean surface temperatures rise by >.°C by at Although rising temperatures will be a widespread an intermediate emissions scenario (RCP.). There is issue in the future, there will be variation in the fre- some variability across coastal and inland regions, quency, severity and consequences of risks posed by with collections in regional areas located further a warmer climate to cultural collections. Higher from the coast generally expected to experience
AICCM Bulletin , Vol. , No. , – MAPPING CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISKS FOR AUSTRALIAN CULTURAL COLLECTIONS
FIGURE . Map A.. Map showing changes to the annual mean surface temperature by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www. climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are Australia’s national, state and territory collection locations. See Table A, Appendix , for additional map locations. greater annual mean temperature increases than col- in average RH is likely in coastal areas. Where both lections located in coastal cities (Figures and ). RH and temperature are likely to increase, risks The risks posed by increases to the average maximum associated with physical and chemical deterioration, daily temperature are also important to consider in and biological risks (pests and mould) may relation to collections in regional areas, which may become more frequent and severe. The ‘worst case’ lack the infrastructure needed to buffer internal scenario (RCP. in ) demonstrates these poten- environments against extreme weather events. By tial effects nationally (Figure ); in Queensland , most regional galleries will be experiencing (Figures and ); and in New South Wales average increases to the maximum daily temperature (Figure ). of >.°C. At an intermediate emissions scenario As bushfires are caused by a confluence of four (RCP.), increases of >.°C are possible by in dependent variables—ignition, fuel load, fuel dryness Tasmania (Figure ) and South Australia (Figure ), and hot, dry and windy weather—predicting bushfire and >.°C in southern Queensland (Figure ). risk in relation to the location of collections is more Further research could drill down into the seasonal complex. At this stage, maps overlaying collection data to identify average increases to maximum daily locations and bushfire risk projections have not been temperatures in the summer months to assess the produced. However, it is possible to discuss how ‘worst case’ scenario. future projections vary across the four super-cluster In conjunction with warmer temperatures, changes regions used by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorol- to RH and rainfall patterns can be integrated into ogy. Focusing on the two regions where bushfire climate projections to assess risks to collections. risk can be projected with high confidence, locations While several collections are located in areas which in Southern and Eastern Australia are likely to see may experience large decreases in RH, an increase increases to the average forest fire danger index and
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FIGURE . Map A.. Map showing changes to the annual mean surface temperature by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www. climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are Australia’s national, state and territory collection locations. See Table A, Appendix , for additional map locations. number of days of severe fire danger. For both the impact of the bushfire season on cultural insti- regions, tutions. It is anticipated that responses to this survey, and other assessments of loss and damage, … the number of severe days increases by up [to] will provide important data in mitigating future -% in the worst case scenario (driest bushfire risk. model, RCP.), nearly a threefold increase. Returning to the issue of uncertainty, Leijonhufvud Increases of -% in annual total FFDI et al. () argue that uncertainty must be discussed (∑FFDI from July to June) are also simulated by and, ideally, quantified in impact assessments of in the worst case, indicating a broad climate change on heritage at each step of the process: increase in fire weather conditions. (CSIRO & forcing conditions, climate models, internal variability, Bureau of Meteorology ,p.) building simulation and damage functions (p. ). Damage functions are used to assess risks by providing Collections located in these regions include those in ‘a quantitative expression of cause and effect relation- the capital cities of Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, ships between environmental factors and material Hobart, Sydney, Canberra and Brisbane, and regional change’ (p. ). Uncertainty therefore needs to be collections located in the southern parts of Western acknowledged when using damage functions, which Australia and South Australia; the states of Victoria, relate environmental conditions to material damage. Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory; With complex cause–effect relationships such as mould south-eastern parts of Queensland; and eastern and germination and growth, the damage function is not as south-western New South Wales. Many of these simple as a dose–response relationship (p. ). The sen- areas were heavily affected by bushfires over the sitivity of damage functions to ‘upstream uncertainties’ summer of -. In March , Blue Shield such as internal variability of a climate system, and Australia distributed a survey to study and quantify extreme events, is also unknown.
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FIGURE . Map V.. Map showing changes to the annual mean surface temperature by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www. climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are regional council art galleries in Victoria.
THE COLLECTION ENVIRONMENT AND The use of air cooling systems is the primary source MECHANICAL CLIMATE CONTROL of power consumption during peak periods in Austra- lian cities (Productivity Commission ,p.; For the cultural heritage industry the first principle Saman et al. ,p.). Analysis of seasonal data of risk management for collections has been to published by the Bureau of Meteorology demonstrates purpose-build or repurpose existing buildings and to that Australian summers are already longer and incorporate mechanical temperature and RH control. hotter, and winters shorter and milder across the conti- However, passive building design—combining nent (Swann & Ogge ). Additionally, as outlined location, orientation, building fabric and architecture in the Climate Scenarios section, there is high confi- —is an effective way to reduce or remove reliance dence that maximum daytime temperatures will upon mechanical climate control. Low-impact, increase across the continent due to climate change. environmentally-aware building practices have been This is very likely to increase the demand for HVAC promoted through the Green Building Council Austra- and AC systems to cool indoor environments, shifting lia Green Star sustainability rating system since Australia to a cooling dominated continent (Saman (Green Building Council Australia ), and the Aus- et al. ,p.). Extremes in ambient temperature tralian Government voluntary standard Climate and absolute humidity will increasingly challenge the Active Carbon Neutral Standard for Organisations functional specifications of HVAC and AC systems, that provides certification for organisations that and at times render these systems unable to maintain achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions since the desired indoor conditions, consequently having a (Climate Active ).Yettodatemostnational, negative effect on the stability and maintenance of col- state, territory and regional cultural heritage organis- lection environments. ations control collection environments through the Weather extremes not only have the capacity to affect use of HVAC and AC systems. the performance of HVAC and AC systems but also the
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FIGURE . Map W.. Map showing changes to the annual mean surface temperature by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www. climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are regional council art galleries in Western Australia. delivery of power. Load shedding activities, where a It is imperative that the culture heritage sector coordinated interruption to the power supply is demonstrates a commitment to environmental sustain- required to manage demand and supply, have become ability by reducing its energy demands. Two strategies part of the energy management landscape. Recent that address the changing climate and aim to reduce examples of load shedding and system failure incidents energy consumption are adaptive thermal comfort are the state-wide black out in South Australia in Sep- and night time free cooling. Adaptive thermal comfort tember affecting , customers from house- takes the approach that people will acclimatise to the holds to major industry, which was precipitated by indoor environment based on the external weather con- severe weather events (AEMO ), and the summer ditions. It allows for an adjustment to HVAC or AC heatwave that resulted in prolonged power cuts in Vic- cooling parameters from a narrow deadband to some- toria on January affecting , customers thing more responsive to local climate conditions (AEMO ). During the – bushfire season, (Saman et al. ). With average maximum daily damage to electrical transmission infrastructure and temperatures and mean surface temperatures predicted derating, where there is a controlled reduction in to increase over time, there is a reduction in the benefit energy flow through the transmission network, caused gained by day time free cooling (an efficiency function widespread electrical supply interruptions across of HVAC and AC systems). The findings of a modelling fire-affected regions. Energy Networks Australia study by Roach, Bruno & Belusko () investigating () reported that bushfires in New South Wales the benefit of night time free cooling for buildings in and Victoria alone destroyed more than power Australian capital cities identified that the greatest poles, severely affecting the delivery of power. Fire benefit would be achieved in temperate climate zones, also poses a direct and significant risk to cultural heri- and to a lesser extent in subtropical zones. tage collections from exposure to heat and smoke, When air cooling systems are used to control collection through to scorching and complete destruction. environments it is important to be alert to changing
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FIGURE . Map T.. Map showing changes to the maximum annual daily temperature by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are regional council art galleries in Tasmania.
priorities and challenging scenarios, such as managing that spanned – and benchmarked this HVAC and AC functional limitations, temporary loss of against data from to . The authors write that, energy supply, and implementation of operational changes precipitated by increasing energy costs or Over the last two decades, summer was on moves to meet environmental and efficiency targets. average one month longer than it was half a Temperature and RH guidelines developed for the century before. Temperatures that marked the national cultural heritage sector, including Environ- start of summer now come around two weeks mental Guidelines for Australian Cultural Heritage earlier; temperatures that marked the end of Collections (AICCM ), and Guidelines for Environ- summer now come around two weeks later. mental Control in Cultural Institutions (HCC )can Spring and autumn have shifted and winter is be used to inform discussions and decision-making, now more than three weeks shorter. (p. ) and ensure that moves to adjust HVAC and AC par- ameters, or to implement economising strategies, meet Changing seasonal patterns and increases in temp- the needs of the collection and a range of stakeholder eratures are contributing factors in observed climate requirements. change effects on biodiversity. Hoffmann et al. () have drawn together local case studies that demonstrate climate induced changes in flora and fauna in alpine, woodland, and wet tropical rainforest ecosystems, THE CHANGING CLIMATE AND BIOLOGICAL RISKS and find that these examples, In the Australia Institute discussion paper Out of Season, authors Swann and Ogge () analysed temp- … illustrate both the substantial changes already erature data published by the Bureau of Meteorology occurring in Australia’s terrestrial ecosystems
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FIGURE . Map S.. Map showing changes to the maximum annual daily temperature by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are regional council art galleries in South Australia.
and point to the nature of changes to be expected ups were once part of spring season collection manage- in the future. The examples highlight that ment activities for many conservation departments. changes can be relatively subtle, like phenological However, over the past two years the drop in numbers shifts in flowering time, and phenotypic shifts in of moths observed on migration and camping in components of body size, or much more dra- Alpine caves is raising considerable concern (Australian matic, such as severe local species declines in Academy of Science ; Research Centre for Applied the Wet Tropics and sub-antarctic islands, com- Alpine Ecology ; Sherwen & Jones ). munity shifts in Alpine areas, and direct There are many risks and agents of deterioration that damage to forests exposed to heat stress, in combination affect the condition of cultural heritage drought and frequent fire. Regardless of collections. Changing climatic conditions will influence whether changes are subtle or much more appar- these factors to some extent, and in next sections the bio- ent, major repercussions are likely for the struc- logical risks of insect pests and mould are considered. ture and composition of communities and There is a scarcity of Australian published studies addres- ultimately for ecosystem processes. (p. ) sing mould activity, and museum insect populations, dis- tribution and behaviours. Consequently appraisals have A compelling example of these changes is the stagger- been made using studies carried out in the northern hemi- ing decline in the number of migrating Bogong Moths sphere and local unpublished accounts. (Agrotis infusa). Since , Bogong Moths, en route from Queensland to the Southern Alps, were drawn INSECT PESTS from their migration path by the bright lights of the national capital, and from September to November des- Changes in insect abundance—from population cended upon Canberra and blanketed the national explosion to population collapse—are the results of monuments (McCormick ). Bogong Moth clean- complex interactions of a range of factors that intersect
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FIGURE . Map Q.S. Map showing changes to the maximum annual daily temperature by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are regional council art galleries in southern Queensland. See Table A, Appendix , for additional map locations. with climate change. However, rising temperatures are climate change factors that are linked to changes alone are generally associated with increases in insect in food sources, altered insect migration towards the populations, particularly in species that have adapted poles and to higher elevations, and decreases in insect to urban environments. There is agreement among populations (Lancaster ; VanDerWal et al. ). scholars (Brimblecombe & Lankester ; Child The ideal temperature range for sustaining the , ; Comont ; Pinniger ) that majority of museum insect pests is –°C (Child increases in insect distribution, and changes in behav- pp. , ). Most insects require a humid iour, survival, reproduction, development, and the environment as their larger body surface area compared rate of damage to materials are linked to warmer temp- to volume puts them at risk of desiccation when RH is in eratures. Warmer temperatures are associated with the lower range (Child ,p.). The parameters of accelerated insect life cycles, feeding, breeding and preferred RH vary across insect species. Child (, mobility (Brimblecombe & Lankester ,p.), p. ) writes that wood-boring insects need the absol- and changed migration patterns of insects to environ- ute moisture content of wood to be above % for the ments which are now warm enough to sustain insect development of larvae, which requires ambient RH life (Child ,p.; Comont ,p.). greater than %, although Ashley-Smith (, However, in a global literature review reporting on p. ) puts this closer to % RH. Keratinous-feeding insect population declines, Sanchez-Bayo and Wyc- insects, such as carpet beetles and clothes moths, can khuys (,p.) identified in order of magnitude survive in drier conditions, though development speeds habitat change, pollution, biological traits, and are slowed (Child ,p.). For example, the climate change as the prevailing drivers. Warming webbing clothes moth (Tineola bisselliella) can survive temperatures, altered frost patterns, increased water and develop at a RH as low as % (Ashley-Smith stress on plants, increased soil-drying, and drought ,p.).
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FIGURE . Map A.. Map showing changes to the annual average near-surface relative humidity by the year under scen- ario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are Australia’s national, state and territory collection locations. See Table A, Appendix , for additional map locations.
Gerozisis et al. (,p.) identify the casemak- collection environments can facilitate the establishment ing clothes moth (Tinea pellionella) and the webbing of exotic insect species. Carpet beetles are a common clothes moth as the two most common species in Aus- and widespread museum pest that are accomplished tralia with populations predominantly located in colonisers in alien environments. Pinniger (, coastal, humid climates. Although no specific Austra- p. -) identified four exotic carpet beetles that lian studies were found describing changes in clothes have been recorded as active in specific museums in moth populations, recent moth and butterfly popu- the United Kingdom since the late s, including lation explosions have been reported locally and are the Guernsey carpet beetle (Anthrenus sarnicus), the attributed to a convergence of drought-breaking rains brown carpet beetle (Attagenus smirnovi), the Austra- triggering emergence, and low numbers of parasitic lian carpet beetle (Anthrenocerus australis), and Trogo- wasps and flies (Wild ; Withey ). The derma angustum. In Australia, established exotic English Heritage citizen-science project Operation species of carpet beetle that are known museum pests Clothes Moth, conducted in , confirmed a rise in include the black carpet beetle (Attagenus unicolor) the number of Tineola bisselliella observed in counts and the variegated carpet beetle (Anthrenus verbasci). made in historic and domestic homes (Xavier-Rowe Alex Roach (), a pest management specialist et al. ). Pinniger (,p.) suggests that the who works with national and state cultural heritage contributing factors to observed increases in webbing organisations, predicts that increases in activity will clothes moth activity include warmer ambient and most likely be observed in museum insect pests that indoor temperatures, wider use of natural fibres, and exhibit generalist characteristics, prefer warmer temp- less effective insecticides. eratures but can also tolerate cooler temperatures, Warmer ambient external conditions and the warm, have adapted to urban environments, and are capable stable temperatures achieved in climate controlled of human-mediated dispersal. Within Australian
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FIGURE . Map Q.N. Map showing changes to the annual average near-surface relative humidity by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are regional council art galleries in northern Queensland. cultural heritage organisations these would include presence of moisture or sustained high humidity, native and exotic carpet beetles, silverfish, dry-store surface temperature between mid °C to low °C beetles, and clothes and casing moths. Roach also (Ashley-Smith ,p.), a suitable source of nutri- expects that longer periods of warmer weather and ents and a slow rate of air movement. unseasonal bursts of warm weather during winter Predicting the vulnerability of materials and the risk months will have an influence on insect activity which threshold for mould has been modelled by Ashley- may become evident in early emergence, additional Smith (), who notes that testing of a range of his- larval stages, and longer life stages and cycles. toric materials for the Climate for Culture project Additionally, Roach suggests that the risk of drywood confirmed a mould growth threshold of %RHat termite activity may increase over time with higher °C, but cautioned that the results apply only to the temperatures, given that this termite can thrive in low specific test samples and batch. This finding is sup- moisture environments. The prevailing result will be ported by Ankersmit and Stappers (), who report increasing incidents of infestation and increasing that ‘most fungal spores found in collections will only levels of damage to objects when infestations occur. germinate and grow into mould colonies at relative humidities above %. Their growth rate depends strongly on the surrounding relative humidity and MOULD temperature’ (p. ). The impact of climate change on the development While the presence of water and sustained high and pervasiveness of mould is uncertain. This is humidity are amongst the strongest influences in the because the growth of mould is a complex process growth of mould (Ashley-Smith ,p.), xerophilic and not a simple correlation between temperature and mould species will germinate and grow in low-moisture RH. Multiple factors influence the ability of mould to environments. Aranyanark and Woraward (, germinate and grow, including the substrate, the p. ) reported recurrent outbreaks of Penicillium
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FIGURE . Map Q.S. Map showing changes to the annual average near-surface relative humidity by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are regional council art galleries in southern Queensland. See Table A, Appendix , for additional map locations.
Aspergillus and Eurotium xerophilic moulds that flour- As described in the Climate Scenarios section, there ished in collection areas in museum buildings in Thai- will be over the very long term an expected decrease in land, where air conditioning was used intermittently RH, except for coastal locations. A decrease in RH in to meet energy saving policies. combination with soil drying is likely to result in an A local example of unusual mould behaviour is the environment that is less conducive to mould growth. low occurrence of outbreaks at Elizabeth Bay House, However, the predicted widespread seasonal decrease an historic home situated near Sydney Harbour that is in rainfall combined with an increase in the intensity of managed by Sydney Living Museums. Sarah-Jane extreme rainfall events could be the trigger for sporadic Rennie, Head of Collections Care (), has over mould outbreaks. Additionally, heavy rainfall can cause many years recorded high RH inside the house—gener- isolated flooding, and rainfall in combination with ally around %—which is reasonably stable and con- strong winds can lead to water infiltration into building sistent year-round. Although the house is often closed fabric and leaks. Detecting water ingress and identifying up and airflow is limited, far less mould activity than and cleaning up leaks is essential to restraining mould would be anticipated is observed. The house was built activity. The risk of mould outbreaks going unobserved in the midst of expansive sandstone walls, terraces in collections is increased in situations where congestion and natural deposits. Rennie suspects that both the in storage areas impedes access for inspections, and coastal location, and the banks of sandstone with its where there are limitations on resources and staffing ability to absorb and slowly release water over time, dedicated to collection management tasks. Overpopu- are likely to be combining to create the constant, high lated storage areas also have a negative impact on RH micro-climate. She credits low mould activity in airflow and circulation. the house to the high level of preventive conservation Preventive conservation procedures remain the most practice, principally good house-keeping and cleanli- effective means of reducing the risk of mould activity in ness that is undertaken. collection environments. In combination, deep cleaning
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FIGURE . Map N.. Map showing changes to the annual average near-surface relative humidity by the year under scenario RCP.. Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November . Also shown are regional council art galleries in New South Wales. of storage areas, keeping objects clean and dust-free, faced by collections. For individual collections, these controlling the inflow of high humidity external air risks are not only dependent upon location and into clean storage spaces, and creating air flow within environmental control stategies, but are formed by the rooms will reduce the risk of mould activity. The intersection of factors such as organisational aims, storage of collections in archival corrugated boxes resources, infrastructure, staffing, and object material and museum crates is also a very successful method types and history. The study demonstrates that for creating buffered storage environments for objects. mapping trends in climate change—such as the shift During periods of high humidity, whether seasonal or towards a hotter and drier continent with more the consequence of weather events, dehumidifiers can extreme rainfall and fire events—can be used, in con- be used to reduce the moisture content of air. Also, junction with maps of collection data, to understand where HVAC systems are in use and the environment which regions are likely to be heavily impacted by is continuously monitored, carefully controlled changes to different climate variables. increases in temperature can be used to lower humidity. As mentioned within the study, there are some important limitations to be considered. While mostly museum and gallery collections are mapped and ana- CONCLUSION lysed, the datasets produce maps with a wide distri- In preparing for the risks that a changing climate will bution of locations. Also, modelling future risks pose to heritage collections, there are significant associated with a changing climate is very complex, benefits to be obtained from applying climate projec- and involves more factors than geographic distribution. tion data to collection case studies. The unique contri- Future extensions to this research are suggested below. bution of this paper is that it presents modelling of As this paper has established a methodology for com- future climate risks to collections at national, state paring collection location data to climate change pro- and regional scales, and links this to specific risks jections, future research could take this further in
AICCM Bulletin , Vol. , No. , – AMANDA PAGLIARINO AND AINSLEE MEREDITH examining the potential effects on different kinds of col- Head of Conservation at the Art Gallery of New South lections, or by integrating more variables (such as Wales (AGNSW), and Michael Varcoe-Cocks—Head of passive and controlled systems) into studies. Individual Conservation and MaryJo Lelyveld—Coordinating Con- collections or networks of collections in a specific servator at the National Gallery of Victoria (NGV). region might undertake impact assessments using The Bizot Green Protocol guideline for loans was published by The International Group of Organizers of Major Exhibi- climate projection data, drawing on methods for tions (also known as the Bizot Group) of which AGNSW impact assessments developed by Clarke, Whetton and NGV are members. The environmental parameters and Hennessy ( ). set out in the protocol are –%RH and –°C with Additionally, within the cultural heritage sector we acceptable RH fluctuations ≤±% per h. Specific pro- need to collectively consider how we respond to these visions in the protocol include references to customised new circumstances and weather events that result in a environmental parameters for sensitive objects and the loss of control over collection environment conditions. importance of seeking advice of conservators in establish- For example, what should the expectations of major ing appropriate environmental conditions for works of lenders be in response to collection material on loan that art requested for loan (see Bizot Group ). is exposed to a loss of suitable conditions? What should There are various organisational models amongst the gal- the borrower’s obligations be to lenders when conditions leries associated with local councils. Our list includes some galleries which are partially council-funded or vary outside the prescribed limits as a consequence of which use council buildings. Some do not have permanent weather events and climate extremes? How should this collections but display only loaned collections and be reported between parties? Most importantly, what exhibitions. are fair and reasonable responses in these situations? The mean daily air temperature, provided as an averaged The challenge is to balance the management of risks annual statistic. This correlates to annually averaged such as those outlined in this study with the need to warming. reassess and adapt environmental parameters for col- Climate Change in Australia maps the specific cluster lection care in changing contexts. In this regard it is regions of Central Slopes (area west of the Great Dividing important that the conservation sector is open to collec- Range); East Coast (area on the eastern seaboard from tive approaches, as well as allowing room for individual Rockhampton to Sydney); Monsoon North (area of dry and unique responses. Following the decision of tropical savannah from Queensland to WA); Murray Basin (area extending from inland NSW, Victoria, and CAAMD to adopt the Bizot Green Protocol for cultural ACT to eastern SA); Rangelands (area covering much of loans, there will be a need to consider how regional gal- the Australian interior); Southern Slopes (area covering leries in different geographic locations also experience Tasmania and south coast NSW and Victoria); South & and manage climate change. Decision-making, always South-Western Flatlands (covering two geographical at the centre of conservation practice, can be enhanced locations of south coast WA and south coast SA); and by the use of environmental guidelines in conjunction Wet Tropics (two geographical locations of far north with predictive climate mapping resources. Queensland being Mackay/Whitsunday region and Towns- ville to the Torres Strait). (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorol- ogy ). NOTES The average daily maximum air temperature, provided as an averaged annual statistic. ‘RCPs … make predictions of how concentrations of green- Internal variability refers to the changes inherent within a house gases in the atmosphere will change in future as a climate system that occur without external forcing. result of human activities’ (Australian Government Depart- A=national, state and territory collections. N = New ment of the Environment and Energy n.d.). South Wales regional art galleries. Q = Queensland The Heritage Collections Council was a program of the regional art galleries (north and south). S = South Austra- Cultural Ministers’ Council, funded from to . lian regional art galleries. T = Tasmanian regional art gal- Guidelines for Environmental Control in Cultural Insti- leries. V = Victorian regional art galleries. W = Western tutions was written by Professor Colin Pearson and the Australian regional art galleries. No regional maps were members of the Consortium for Heritage Collections and created for the Australian Capital Territory and the Their Environment, following two years of research and Northern Territory, as there are no municipal councils fieldwork. The manual has a particular focus on small cul- in the ACT, and no regional art galleries linked to local tural collections and passive control strategies. Pearson was councils in the NT that could be identified by the authors. an early advocate of passive climate control for the storage The changes are calculated using the ‘time-slice’ method. and display of collections. Through his role as co-director This involves subtracting a future -year averaged value of the Cultural Heritage Research Centre at the University as simulated by the selected climate model from the -year of Canberra ( to ), and his many positions served averaged baseline (–) from the same model. The on the councils of AICCM, ICCROM, IIC, and ICOM, he difference is presented in degrees Celsius for temperature brought the issue of conservation of cultural heritage collec- variables and percent change for other variables. tions in humid climates to the attention of the international community (see AICCM ;HCC; Pagliarino ). The paper was prepared by Amanda Pagliarino as the ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AICCM Coordinator of the Environmental Guidelines Project and Head of Conservation & Registration at the Climate projection data provided by CSIRO and Bureau of Queensland Art Gallery | Gallery of Modern Art Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia website (http:// (QAGOMA), with the cooperation of Carolyn Murphy— www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/), cited November
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. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Pro- Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) , Black gramme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is System South Australia September , Australian responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling Energy Market Operator, Melbourne, viewed October groups (listed in Table .. of CSIRO & Bureau of Meteor- ,
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Child, R , ‘Insect damage as a function of climate’, Heritage Collections Council (HCC) , Guidelines for in T Padfield and K Borchersen (eds), Museum environmental control in cultural institutions, Microclimates: Contributions to the conference in Commonwealth of Australia on behalf of the HCC, Copenhagen – November , The National Canberra, viewed May ,
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Productivity Commission (PC) , Electricity network Swann, T, & Ogge, M, , Out of season – expanding regulatory frameworks – inquiry report overview and rec- summers and shrinking winters in subtropical and tem- ommendations, no. , April , Productivity perate Australia, The Australia Institute, Canberra, Commission, viewed October ,
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APPENDIX
TABLE A.MAPS PRODUCED OF PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES RELATIVE TO THE PERIOD –. Climate Climate Climate Climate Climate Climate scenario scenario scenario scenario scenario scenario Variable , , , , , , RCP. RCP. RCP. RCP. RCP. RCP. Mean surface Map A. Map A. Map A. Map A. Map A. Map A. temperature (°C) Map N. Map N. Map N. Map N.S Map N. Map N. Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map S. Map S. Map S. Map S. Map S. Map S. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map W. Map W. Map W. Map W. Map W. Map W. Average maximum daily Map A. Map A. Map A. Map A. Map A. Map A. temperature (°C) Map N. Map N. Map N. Map N. Map N. Map N. Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map S. Map S. Map S. Map S. Map S. Map S. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map W. Map W. Map W. Map W. Map W. Map W. Relative humidity (RH) Map A. Map A. Map A. Map A. Map A. Map A. Map N. Map N. Map N. Map N. Map N. Map N. Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.N Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map Q.S Map S. Map S. Map S. Map S. Map S. Map S. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map T. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map V. Map W. Map W. Map W. Map W. Map W. Map W.
TABLE A.LEGEND OF ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS IN MAPS A.,A. AND A. (FIGURES , AND ). QLD state collections Cobb & Co Museum Museum of Tropical Queensland Queensland Art Gallery & Gallery of Modern Art Queensland Herbarium Queensland Museum Queensland State Archives State Library of Queensland The Workshops Rail Museum NSW state & national collections Art Gallery of New South Wales Australian Museum Australian National Maritime Museum Bundanon Trust Powerhouse Museum National Herbarium of NSW NSW State Archives & Records State Library of New South Wales Sydney Living Museums Sydney Opera House ACT state & national collections ACT Heritage Library
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AIATSIS Australian National Herbarium Australian War Memorial Canberra Museum and Gallery The Museum of Australian Democracy National Archives of Australia National Film and Sound Archive National Gallery of Australia The National Library of Australia National Museum of Australia National Portrait Gallery Questacon TAS state collections Archives Office of Tasmania State Library of Tasmania Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery VIC state collections Arts Centre Melbourne Australian Centre Moving Image Immigration Museum Melbourne Museum National Gallery of Victoria National Herbarium of Victoria Public Record Office Victoria Scienceworks Museum Shrine of Remembrance State Library of Victoria SA state collections Art Gallery of South Australia Migration Museum (History SA) National Motor Museum Santos Museum of Economic Botany South Australian Maritime Museum South Australian Museum State Herbarium of South Australia State Library of South Australia State Records of South Australia WA state collections Art Gallery of WA State Library of WA State Records Office of WA Western Australian Herbarium WA Maritime Museum Western Australian Museum WA Shipwrecks Museum NT state collections Araluen Arts Centre Museum & Art Gallery of the NT Northern Territory Archives Northern Territory Library
AICCM Bulletin , Vol. , No. , – AMANDA PAGLIARINO AND AINSLEE MEREDITH
TABLE A.LEGEND OF NUMBERED LOCATIONS IN MAPS concentration of greenhouse gases, aerosols and land-use Q.S AND Q.S(FIGURES AND ). change. At RCP . , slower emission reductions mean that concentrations peak at around , then decline; this rep- Wondai Regional Art Gallery resents intermediate radiative forcing levels. At RCP., emis- Kingaroy Regional Art Gallery sions increase throughout the twenty-first century, and Lapunyah Art Gallery radiative forcing levels are high. The scenario RCP . , repre- senting a peak in emissions between – followed by a Rosalie Gallery decline, projects low radiative forcing levels in keeping with Crows Nest Regional Art Gallery the Paris Agreement to ensure that long-term global Ipswich Art Gallery warming does not exceed °C. While still technically feasible (van Vuuren et al. ), RCP. has not been included in Lockyer Valley Art Gallery this study because the risks to cultural collections would not The Gallery & The Centre Beaudesert be substantially higher than at present. Gold Coast City Art Gallery Australian Climate Futures allows for the following Logan Art Gallery climate variables to be studied: mean temperature; maximum temperature; minimum temperature; rainfall; Redland Art Gallery (Capalaba) downward solar radiation; relative humidity; wind-speed; Redland Art Gallery (Cleveland) and areal potential evapotranspiration. For the purposes of Pine Rivers Art Gallery studying the impact of climate change upon cultural collec- Redcliffe Art Gallery tions, four relevant variables were analysed: mean surface temperature (°C); average maximum annual daily tempera- Caboolture Regional Art Gallery ture (°C); relative humidity (RH%); and rainfall (mm). Caloundra Regional Gallery Maps of the first three variables were downloaded using Noosa Regional Gallery the Australian Climate Futures tool, for each time period and climate scenario. Data was obtained in the format of projected climate changes relative to the period – (see Table A, Appendix ). APPENDIX Projected change data is most suitable for analyses which cover broad regions, as uncertainty in the results increases ADDITIONAL METHODS at a finer spatial scale (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology ACCESS- model data was obtained from Australian ). A second limitation is that map data cannot be ana- Climate Futures, a free web-based tool that provides regional lysed at the level of a single grid cell, but rather results from climate projections for Australia (Clarke, Whetton & Hen- grid cells must be averaged over at least four grid cells nessy ; Whetton et al. ). Three time periods were (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology ). selected for analysis, corresponding to the short-term future The two datasets – the location data of representative Aus- (), mid-term (), and long-term (). Each time tralian cultural collections, and climate projection data—were period was analysed at two Representative Concentration combined in overlay maps created using the geospatial proces- Pathways (RCPs): RCP., to simulate intermediate emis- sing program ArcMap. The maps comprise two layers: geo- sions, and RCP., to simulate high emissions. Variation in coded files of the locations of Commonwealth, state and greenhouse gas emissions between the two scenarios is mar- territory funded collections (N=), and regional galleries ginal in , but contributes to greater uncertainty in pre- (N=); and climate modelling output data of projected dicting climate variables in the long-term by (CSIRO climate change for the selected variables. & Bureau of Meteorology ,p.). The scenario The geocoded files were produced by extracting the latitu- RCP. is therefore most relevant in the mid and long-term dinal and longitudinal values for each identified collection ( and ). Brimblecombe and Lankester () also from Google Maps, then uploading the geocoded files to use a ‘worst case’ scenario model to demonstrate the impact ArcMap. The two types of collection data are represented of the most severe changes (p. ). on separate maps to enable details to be seen at a regional Adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate level. The maps use colour-coded matrices to show changes Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report (), the to each climate variable. Change is measured as °C change RCPs represent different scenarios for the future for temperature, and % change for RH and rainfall.
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