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Objective Analysis Objective Analysis Flash Memory Summit OPEN Session 303G: Market Research Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 1 Flash Memory Venture Funding & M&A Insights August 11, 2016 John Rotchford, Managing Director, SASI, LLC © Copyright 2006 SASI, LLC. All rights reserved Flash Memory Venture Funding We are seeing a shift from larger, later stage rounds to smaller, earlier stage rounds. This is the second wave of innovation and will ramp into 2017 and 2018…. $400 $388M $351M $350 $335M 12 Rds. $300 Avg. ($M) ($M) 5 Rds. 12 Rds. $32.3M $250 Avg. $230M Avg. $70.2M $27.9M $200 $150 9 Rds. Total Funding Funding Total Avg. $25.5M $100 $92M 5 Rds. $50 Avg. $18.3M $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H 2016 Year Violin Memory, $50M 6th Pure Storage, $150M 5th Nimble Storage, $40.7M 5th Tintri, $75M 5th Tegile, $70M 4th Elastifile, $35M 2nd Skyera, $52M 2nd Pure Storage, $40M 4th Pure Storage, $225M 6th Crossbar, $35M 4th Avalanche Tech, 23M 6th Crocus Technology, $45M Top Five Rounds STT, $36M 1st PernixData, $35M 3rd Nantero, $31.5M 5th Diablo Tech, $19M 3rd Later Avalanche Technology, Reduxio, $15M 2nd Everspin Tech., $29M 2nd E8 Storage, $12M 2nd Tegile, $35M 3rd $30M 3rd NVMDurance, $1M 1st Crocus, $21M 5th NVM Durance, $2.5M 1st SolidFire, $31M 4th 3 Flash Memory M&A Transactions 2016 is off to a slow start with one trade but we see M&A picking up in 2nd half of 2016, into 2017…. $20 $19.93B $3 4 Deals ($B) ($B) $2.04B Median Deal $2 Size: $870M $1.72B 9 Deals Median Deal Size: $213M 6 Deals Median Deal $1 $860M Size: $450M Total Consideration Total 9 Deals Median Deal Size: $80M $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year EMC/XtremIO, $430M WD/Virident SanDisk/Fusion-io, WD/SanDisk, $19.0B IBM/Texas Memory Systems, $645M $1.1B NetApp/SolidFire, $870M Top Deals Systems $250M Cisco/WhipTail, $415M Seagate/LSI, $450M Silicon Motion/Shannon Sys, $57.5M NetApp/CacheIQ, WD/STEC, $340M EMC/DSSD, $150M Micron/Tidal Systems, ND $90M SanDisk/SMART Storage SanDisk/FlashSoft, Systems, $307M $70M Fusion-io/NextGen, $119M 4 Flash Market Consolidation We expect market leaders to fuel further consolidation in 2017… SSDs/ Buyer Software Systems Sub-Systems Hybrid Controllers Cisco Whiptail (2013) EMC DSSD XtremIO (2014) (2012) IBM Texas Memory (2012) Intel Nevex (2012) NetApp SolidFire (2015) CacheIO (2012) Toshiba OCZ OCZ (2013) (2013) Samsung Proximal Data (2014) NVELO (2012) Seagate LSI LSI/ (2014) (2014) Violin GridIron Memory (2013) Western SanDisk Skyera SanDisk SanDisk SanDisk Digital (2015) (2014) (2015) (2015) (2015) Velobit Virident STEC (2013) (2013) (2013) Micron Tidal Systems (2015) 5 Flash Memory Venture Market Map Our market map has expanded across all segments….. Systems Memory/Controllers Software (NVMe (CBRAM) (NMV) (MRAM) Sub-Systems (PCIe) (MRAM) (RRAM) Hybrid (NVMe) (MRAM) (NVMe) (NRAM) 6 Flash Memory Summit Chris DePuy, Dell’Oro Group DELL'ORO GROUP Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 7 Agenda § Forecast of flash growth in storage infrastructure market § The role storage will play in transition from on-premise data centers to clouds § Discussion about external storage system architectures § Acquisition candidates in converged trend Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 8 Flash as % of Total Capacity in External Storage Systems 60% DELL'ORO GROUP 30% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 9 External Systems – Cloud vs Enterprise Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 10 Ports on External Storage Systems and Their Connected Servers 60% Ethernet Fibre Channel 30% Ports SAS and Other DELL'ORO GROUP 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 11 Share – Converged Components Branded Vendor Storage Servers DC Switch DELL'ORO GROUP EMC HPE DELL NetApp IBM Huawei Hitachi Lenovo Cisco Oracle Arista & Juniper Others Flash Memory Summit 2016 *2015 data; Data Center (DC) Switch from Ethernet Switch Deployment Santa Clara, CA Location Report, Mar. 2016; Servers from 4Q15 Server Report 12 Big Changes For 2016 & Beyond Jim Handy OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS Profound Analysts Reports & Custom Services Consulting OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Objective Analysis Semiconductor Forecast Accuracy Year Forecast Actual 2008 Zero growth at best. -3% 2009 Growth in the mid teens -9% 2010 Should approach 30% 32% 2011 Muted revenue growth: 5% 0% 2012 Revenues drop as much as -5% -2.7% 2013 Revenues increase nearly 10% 4.9% 2014 Revenues up 20%+ 9.9% 2015 Revenues up ~10% -0.2% 2016 Revenues up ~10% TBD OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Outlook • 3D NAND stall through 2017 – Breakthrough will occur in 2018 • Big collapse after that • 3D XPoint won’t hurt NAND sales – DRAM is threatened • China will begin huge CapEx spend • SSD unit growth steady – But revenues will cycle OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com The Longer The Shortage, The Bigger The Collapse! Flat Pricing Collapse Price perGigabyte Time OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com 3D XPoint Helps Reduce DRAM Needs 7 1.E+0710 L1 1.E+06106 L2 1.E+05105 L3 4 1.E+0410 DRAM 3 1.E+0310 3D XPoin3D Bandwidth (MB/s) Bandwidth XPointt SSD 1.E+02102 HDD 1 1.E+0110 Tape 1.E+00100 1.E-0110-1 1.E+00100 1.E+01101 1.E+02102 101.E+033 101.E+044 101.E+055 101.E+066 Price per Gigabyte Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com China Spending About to Begin OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Steady SSD Unit Growth, But A Revenue Rollercoaster 400 $40 300 $30 200 $20 100 $10 Revenues ($B) Revenues Unit Shipments (Mu) Unit (Mu) Shipments 0 $0 Units Revenues Source: Objective Analysis SSD Market Update 2015 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Average IOPS by Application 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 IOPS Required IOPS 0 Database OLTP Cloud Science & Eng From: How Many IOPS Do You Really Need? Objective Analysis & Coughlin Assoc. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Summary • 3D NAND Stall will break through to an oversupply • 3D XPoint is a threat to DRAM • Major China CapEx coming • SSD units grow, but revenues gyrate OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Thank You! Jim Handy OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS Beyond Traditional NAND Flash Marketing Research Brian Dargel The views expressed here are solely those of the author in his private capacity Santa Clara, CA and do not in any way represent the views of Micron Technology Inc. August 2016 Traditional Flash Market Research Financial Research Market Share Predictions Technology Trends Application / end-Market trends Geopolitics / Industrial Policy / National Initiatives ¶ Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Source: Time Source: WSJ Source: Wikipedia ~1997~ Source: Time Source: CNN Source: Wikipedia Source: Wikipedia Source:AOL Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Other 1997 Publication of 1996 Flash Memory Market Data (Start of the NAND ramp) Source: ICE, Memory 1997 Santa Clara, CA August 2016 100 Other Other Other 90 Other 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1992 1995 1999 2005 2010 2015 Source: ICE, Web-Feet Research Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Industry ‘Pivot’ Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Information Flow Industrial Policy Santa Clara, CA August 2016 • Chaebols • Korean Peninsula •Abenomics • The IT decline • Cross-strait relations • IT dependence • National Initiatives • Socialism with Chinese characteristics • Presidential Election • CFIUS Where is the rest of the world Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Flash/SSD Markets Mark Webb MKW Ventures Consulting, LLC Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 32 Flash Market Projections § Market Summary § SSD Units § SSD Adoption Rates § Predictions § What will not happen Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 33 SSD UnitSSD Unit Shipments (M) Shipments 250 200 Enterprise CAGR: 32% 150 100 Client CAGR: 21% 50 Units (millions) (millions) Units 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Client Enterprise • SSD Unit shipments grow at modest linear rate Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 34 SSD Market Penetration • SSDs are growing but still trail HDD • Notebook: still TBD • Tipping if cloud storage is first storage for 100% of notebooks • Saturating if hybrid HDD or HDD still primary storage • Enterprise: continues linear • 100% of performance enterprise • <5% of capacity enterprise Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA Predictions • SSD cost/GB drop 25% per year • Prices 25% or more • TLC becomes dominant in all SDDs • Client and Enterprise/Datacenter • Cloud/Hyperscale becomes dominate SSD market • Formfactors cost optimized for SSD applications • M.2 for all applications • BGA for Phone/ultramobile, Notebooks • SCM memory has multiple suppliers and technologies for >$1B market Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 36 What Will NOT Happen • HDDs will NOT go away • SCM memory will not replace DRAM or NAND • No new major 3D NAND companies will arise Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 37 .
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