Flash Memory Summit

OPEN Session 303G: Market Research

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 1 Flash Memory Venture Funding & M&A Insights August 11, 2016

John Rotchford, Managing Director, SASI, LLC

© Copyright 2006 SASI, LLC. All rights reserved Flash Memory Venture Funding We are seeing a shift from larger, later stage rounds to smaller, earlier stage rounds. This is the second wave of innovation and will ramp into 2017 and 2018….

$400 $388M $351M $350 $335M

12 Rds. $300 Avg. ($M) ($M) 5 Rds. 12 Rds. $32.3M $250 Avg. $230M Avg. $70.2M $27.9M $200

$150 9 Rds. Total Funding Funding Total Avg. $25.5M $100 $92M

5 Rds. $50 Avg. $18.3M $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H 2016 Year

Violin Memory, $50M 6th Pure Storage, $150M 5th Nimble Storage, $40.7M 5th Tintri, $75M 5th Tegile, $70M 4th Elastifile, $35M 2nd Skyera, $52M 2nd Pure Storage, $40M 4th Pure Storage, $225M 6th Crossbar, $35M 4th Avalanche Tech, 23M 6th Crocus Technology, $45M Top Five Rounds STT, $36M 1st PernixData, $35M 3rd Nantero, $31.5M 5th Diablo Tech, $19M 3rd Later Avalanche Technology, Reduxio, $15M 2nd Everspin Tech., $29M 2nd E8 Storage, $12M 2nd Tegile, $35M 3rd $30M 3rd NVMDurance, $1M 1st Crocus, $21M 5th NVM Durance, $2.5M 1st SolidFire, $31M 4th 3 Flash Memory M&A Transactions 2016 is off to a slow start with one trade but we see M&A picking up in 2nd half of 2016, into 2017…. $20 $19.93B

$3

4 Deals ($B) ($B) $2.04B Median Deal $2 Size: $870M $1.72B 9 Deals Median Deal Size: $213M 6 Deals Median Deal $1 $860M Size: $450M Total Consideration Consideration Total

9 Deals Median Deal Size: $80M $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year

EMC/XtremIO, $430M WD/Virident SanDisk/Fusion-io, WD/SanDisk, $19.0B IBM/Texas Memory Systems, $645M $1.1B NetApp/SolidFire, $870M Top Deals Systems $250M Cisco/WhipTail, $415M Seagate/LSI, $450M Silicon Motion/Shannon Sys, $57.5M NetApp/CacheIQ, WD/STEC, $340M EMC/DSSD, $150M Micron/Tidal Systems, ND $90M SanDisk/SMART Storage SanDisk/FlashSoft, Systems, $307M $70M Fusion-io/NextGen, $119M

4 Flash Market Consolidation

We expect market leaders to fuel further consolidation in 2017…

SSDs/ Buyer Software Systems Sub-Systems Hybrid Controllers

Cisco Whiptail (2013) EMC DSSD XtremIO (2014) (2012) IBM Texas Memory (2012) Intel Nevex (2012) NetApp SolidFire (2015) CacheIO (2012) Toshiba OCZ OCZ (2013) (2013) Samsung Proximal Data (2014) NVELO (2012) Seagate LSI LSI/ (2014) (2014) Violin GridIron Memory (2013)

Western SanDisk Skyera SanDisk SanDisk SanDisk Digital (2015) (2014) (2015) (2015) (2015) Velobit Virident STEC (2013) (2013) (2013) Micron Tidal Systems (2015) 5 Flash Memory Venture Market Map

Our market map has expanded across all segments…..

Systems Memory/Controllers Software

(NVMe (CBRAM)

(NMV)

(MRAM) Sub-Systems

(PCIe) (MRAM)

(RRAM) Hybrid

(NVMe)

(MRAM)

(NVMe)

(NRAM)

6 Flash Memory Summit

Chris DePuy, Dell’Oro Group

DELL'ORO GROUP Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 7 Agenda

§ Forecast of flash growth in storage infrastructure market § The role storage will play in transition from on-premise data centers to clouds § Discussion about external storage system architectures § Acquisition candidates in converged trend

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 8 Flash as % of Total Capacity in External Storage Systems

60%

DELL'ORO GROUP

30%

0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 9 External Systems – Cloud vs Enterprise

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 10 Ports on External Storage Systems and Their Connected Servers 60% Ethernet

Fibre Channel 30%

Ports SAS and Other

DELL'ORO GROUP 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 11 Share – Converged Components

Branded Vendor Storage Servers DC Switch DELL'ORO GROUP EMC HPE DELL NetApp IBM Huawei Hitachi Lenovo Cisco Oracle Arista & Juniper Others

Flash Memory Summit 2016 *2015 data; Data Center (DC) Switch from Ethernet Switch Deployment Santa Clara, CA Location Report, Mar. 2016; Servers from 4Q15 Server Report 12 Big Changes For 2016 & Beyond

Jim Handy

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Profound Analysts

Reports & Custom Services Consulting

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Objective Analysis Semiconductor Forecast Accuracy Year Forecast Actual 2008 Zero growth at best. -3% 2009 Growth in the mid teens -9% 2010 Should approach 30% 32% 2011 Muted revenue growth: 5% 0% 2012 Revenues drop as much as -5% -2.7% 2013 Revenues increase nearly 10% 4.9% 2014 Revenues up 20%+ 9.9% 2015 Revenues up ~10% -0.2% 2016 Revenues up ~10% TBD

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Outlook

• 3D NAND stall through 2017 – Breakthrough will occur in 2018 • Big collapse after that • 3D XPoint won’t hurt NAND sales – DRAM is threatened • China will begin huge CapEx spend • SSD unit growth steady – But revenues will cycle

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com The Longer The Shortage, The Bigger The Collapse!

Flat Pricing

Collapse Price perGigabyte

Time OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com 3D XPoint Helps Reduce DRAM Needs

7 1.E+0710

L1 1.E+06106

L2

1.E+05105

L3

4 1.E+0410

DRAM 3 1.E+0310 3D XPoin3D

Bandwidth (MB/s) Bandwidth XPointt SSD 1.E+02102 HDD

1 1.E+0110 Tape

1.E+00100 1.E-0110-1 1.E+00100 1.E+01101 1.E+02102 101.E+033 101.E+044 101.E+055 101.E+066 Price per Gigabyte Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com China Spending About to Begin

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Steady SSD Unit Growth, But A Revenue Rollercoaster 400 $40

300 $30

200 $20

100 $10 Revenues ($B) ($B) Revenues

Unit Shipments (Mu) (Mu) Unit Shipments 0 $0

Units Revenues Source: Objective Analysis SSD Market Update 2015

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Average IOPS by Application

3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 IOPS Required IOPS 0 Database OLTP Cloud Science & Eng From: How Many IOPS Do You Really Need? Objective Analysis & Coughlin Assoc. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Summary

• 3D NAND Stall will break through to an oversupply • 3D XPoint is a threat to DRAM • Major China CapEx coming • SSD units grow, but revenues gyrate

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com Thank You!

Jim Handy

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS Beyond Traditional NAND Flash

Marketing Research

Brian Dargel

The views expressed here are solely those of the author in his private capacity Santa Clara, CA and do not in any way represent the views of Micron Technology Inc. August 2016 Traditional Flash Market Research

Financial Research

Market Share Predictions

Technology Trends

Application / end-Market trends

Geopolitics / Industrial Policy / National Initiatives ¶

Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Source: Time Source: WSJ Source: Wikipedia ~1997~ Source: Time

Source: CNN Source: Wikipedia Source: Wikipedia Source:AOL

Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Other 1997 Publication of 1996 Flash Memory Market Data (Start of the NAND ramp)

Source: ICE, Memory 1997 Santa Clara, CA August 2016 100 Other Other Other 90 Other

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1992 1995 1999 2005 2010 2015 Source: ICE, Web-Feet Research

Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Industry ‘Pivot’

Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Information Flow Industrial Policy

Santa Clara, CA August 2016 • Chaebols • Korean Peninsula •Abenomics • The IT decline • Cross-strait relations • IT dependence • National Initiatives • Socialism with Chinese characteristics • Presidential Election • CFIUS

Where is the rest of the world

Santa Clara, CA August 2016 Flash/SSD Markets

Mark Webb MKW Ventures Consulting, LLC

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 32 Flash Market Projections

§ Market Summary § SSD Units § SSD Adoption Rates § Predictions § What will not happen

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 33 SSD UnitSSD Unit Shipments (M) Shipments

250 200 Enterprise CAGR: 32% 150 100 Client CAGR: 21% 50

Units (millions) (millions) Units 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Client Enterprise

• SSD Unit shipments grow at modest linear rate

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 34 SSD Market Penetration

• SSDs are growing but still trail HDD

• Notebook: still TBD • Tipping if cloud storage is first storage for 100% of notebooks • Saturating if hybrid HDD or HDD still primary storage • Enterprise: continues linear • 100% of performance enterprise • <5% of capacity enterprise

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA Predictions

• SSD cost/GB drop 25% per year • Prices 25% or more • TLC becomes dominant in all SDDs • Client and Enterprise/Datacenter • Cloud/Hyperscale becomes dominate SSD market • Formfactors cost optimized for SSD applications • M.2 for all applications • BGA for Phone/ultramobile, Notebooks • SCM memory has multiple suppliers and technologies for >$1B market

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 36 What Will NOT Happen

• HDDs will NOT go away • SCM memory will not replace DRAM or NAND • No new major 3D NAND companies will arise

Flash Memory Summit 2016 Santa Clara, CA 37