TheThe DynamicsDynamics ofof thethe HDDHDD IndustryIndustry andand itsits ImpactImpact onon CMPCMP
Dr. Robert N. Castellano
The InformationPresident Network 8740 Lyon Valley Road New Tripoli, PA 18066
www.theinformationnet.com610-737-7596
[email protected] Dr. Robert N. Castellano 1 2012 CMPUG TheThe InformationInformation NetworkNetwork –– WhatWhat WeWe DoDo
• Off-The Shelf Technical-Marketing Reports on High- Tech Sectors including HDDs, CMP, Semiconductors, Alternative Energy, LEDs, LCDs, MEMs, Processing Equipment, Processing Materials • Custom Studies in the above areas • Proprietary Leading Indicators correlating macroeconomic trends with projections of semiconductor and semiconductor equipment growth
• Formed in 1985 • First report on the market analysis of CMP in the 90s
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 2 2012 CMPUG ““TheThe RumorsRumors ofof MyMy DeathDeath HaveHave BeenBeen GreatlyGreatly ExaggeratedExaggerated”” –– MarkMark TwainTwain
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 3 2012 CMPUG DiskDisk DriveDrive IndustryIndustry 1960's1960's
Bryant Computer Burroughs Caelus Memories Century Data Systems Control Data Fujitsu Hitachi IBM ISS/Univac Marshall Memorex NCR NEC Potter Instruments Toshiba
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 4 2012 CMPUG DiskDisk DriveDrive IndustryIndustry 1980's1980's
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 5 2012 CMPUG DiskDisk DriveDrive IndustryIndustry 20072007
Cornice Excelsior Fujitsu Hitachi GST Samsung Seagate Toshiba Western Digital
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 6 2012 CMPUG DiskDisk DriveDrive IndustryIndustry 20122012
2012 Worldwide HDD Shipment Share (Precentage of Unit Shipments)
Toshiba 13.5% Seagate Toshiba Western Digital Western Digital 44.6%
Seagate 41.9%
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 7 2012 CMPUG AA ComplexComplex HeadHead MarketMarket
Heads % Heads Sold made Made Seagate 635 0.88 559 TDK 858 Changes taking place in the supply chain for WDC 561 0.82 262 WD with HGST 319 0.97 262 consolidations of the Toshiba/ HDD industry Fujitsu 270 0 0 Samsung 155 0 0
Total 1941 1941
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 8 2012 CMPUG AA ConvolutedConvoluted SuspensionSuspension MarketMarket
Millions • Hutchinson Technology’s customers include Western Digital Corporation, of SAE Magnetics, Ltd/TDK Corporation, units Share Seagate Technology, HGST, and Toshiba. Hutchinson • MPT’s customers include Western Technology 454 23.4% Digital Corporation , SAE Magnetics, Ltd/TDK Corporation, and Seagate Technology. SAE Magnetics sells NHK 763 39.3% further to Toshiba and Samsung • NAT Peripheral’s customers include SAE Magnetics, which sells further to MPT 645 33.2% Samsung. The NAT Peripheral joint venture has provided SAE Magnetics, Ltd./TDK Corporation the capability to SunCall 79 4.1% produce suspension assemblies since calendar 2005. • NHK’s customers include Western Digital Corporation, Seagate Total 1941 100.0% Technology, and Hitachi. • SunCall’s Customer is HGST
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 9 2012 CMPUG WeakWeak EconomyEconomy IsIs thethe NumberNumber OneOne IssueIssue
5 8 0 3 5 8 0 1 96 01 06 09 12 9 99 0 00 0 0 01 0 1 2 n-1 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2 a an- a an- a an-200 a a a Jan-199 J Jan-1997 J Jan-1999 Jan-200 J Jan-2002 J Jan-2004 Jan-200 J Jan-2007 J J Jan-201 J J
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 10 2012 CMPUG WeakWeak EconomyEconomy IsIs CulpritCulprit forfor SlowSlow PCPC GrowthGrowth
Source: IDC
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 11 2012 CMPUG GreatGreat WOWWOW FactorFactor –– HDDs?HDDs?
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 12 2012 CMPUG GreatGreat WOWWOW FactorFactor == GreatGreat GrowthGrowth
Worldwide Tablet Sales Forecast Percentage Ultrabooks U.S. 400 360.4 350 314.4
300 265.6
250 205.5 200
150 Millions ofUnits 126.6
100 68.4
50 19.4
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: IHS Source: NPD
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 13 2012 CMPUG OldOld ApproachApproach atat thethe EnterpriseEnterprise
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 14 2012 CMPUG NewNew ApproachApproach atat thethe EnterpriseEnterprise
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 15 2012 CMPUG CacheCache SSDsSSDs inin UltrabooksUltrabooks willwill HelpHelp thethe HDDHDD IndustryIndustry
• Cache SSDs are a discrete, separate memory component alongside the device’s HDD, with both elements housed separately – Discrete cache SSDs and HDDs are much more scalable and efficient for mainstream storage, with a broad selection of drive manufacturers. • Cost concerns, longer design cycles, and tighter engineering tolerances in the case of hybrid HDDs add to Source: IHS their difficulty of use in ultrabooks.
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 16 2012 CMPUG SocialSocial MediaMedia isis DemandingDemanding HugeHuge AmountsAmounts ofof StorageStorage
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 17 2012 CMPUG CloudCloud Services:Services: TheThe GreatGreat HardHard DriveDrive inin thethe SkySky
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 18 2012 CMPUG SummarySummary
• Despite: – Consolidation – Floods – Poor Economy – Changes to Supply Chain – Rapid Advances of WOW Devices • HDDs will continue to Trudge Along – Because of the Need for Massive Storage • However….
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 19 2012 CMPUG WhileWhile CostCost DifferentialDifferential ofof 25x25x MayMay HoldHold
Source: Objective Design
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 20 2012 CMPUG AndAnd StrongStrong GrowthGrowth isis ForecastForecast ForFor SSDsSSDs
Source: SanDisk
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 21 2012 CMPUG ArealAreal DensityDensity forfor HDDHDD (and(and SSD)SSD) hashas SlowedSlowed toto 20%/year20%/year
Source: Hitachi
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 22 2012 CMPUG AndAnd SoSo HDDsHDDs AsAs WeWe KnowKnow ThemThem MayMay HitHit aa BrickBrick WallWall SoonSoon
PROBLEM: • To increase density, need smaller grains • Smaller grains (~100 Angstroms) are thermally unstable • To avoid thermal instability, increase grain anisotropy Ku – This increases the medium coercivity and makes the medium more difficult to write SOLUTIONS: • Work with higher anisotropy: • Capped and exchange spring media • Thermally assisted recording (TAR) • Work with larger ‘grains’: patterned media
Courtesy: Thomas R. Albrecht, HGST
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 23 2012 CMPUG ReplacedReplaced byby BitBit PatternedPatterned MediaMedia (BPM)(BPM)
Courtesy: Thomas R. Albrecht, HGST
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 24 2012 CMPUG BitBit PatternedPatterned Media:Media: FabricationFabrication OverviewOverview
Courtesy: Kurt A. Rubin, HGST
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 25 2012 CMPUG ChallengesChallenges inin TFHTFH CMPCMP
SiO2 Fill Si Adhesion C Stop
Courtesy: Kurt A. Rubin • Total thickness variation (TTV) of AlTiC substrates • CMP results are sensitive to pad surface • Wafer flats • Final thickness control • Pre-CMP film non-uniformity • Corrosion of exposed metal on the head device • Most IC CMP advancements take place at 300mm while the bulk of GMR Head manufacturing is being done on 150 to 200mm wafers Source:;Strasbaugh
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 26 2012 CMPUG TFH:TFH: FabricationFabrication ExampleExample
• AlTiC substrate; • Undercoat (Al2O3) deposition and polishing (UC CMP); • First shield (NiFe) pattern, deposition/plating, fill, and CMP (S1 CMP); • First gap (Al2O3) deposition, GMR film deposition, GMR track-width definition/hard bias/leads, GMR stripe-height definition; • Second gap (Al2O3) deposition; • Second shield (NiFe) pattern and plating, separating gap deposition, first write pole (NiFe) pattern, plating, fill, and CMP (P1 CMP); • First write pole extension P1P (NiFe, CoNiFe, or CoFe) and first layer write copper coil pattern, plating, fill, and CMP (P1P CMP); • Write coil insulation and writer gap deposition, second write pole (CoNiFe, CoFe) pattern, plating, pattern of second pole width into first pole by ion milling, fill, and CMP (P2 CMP); • Second layer write coil and P3 (NiFe) yoke plating, copper connections, overcoat (Al2O3) deposition and polishing (OC CMP);
Source: HGST
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 27 2012 CMPUG VastVast ArrayArray ofof TFHTFH StacksStacks WithWith NewNew MaterialsMaterials andand ThinnerThinner FilmsFilms
Source: Veeco
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 28 2012 CMPUG HugeHuge R&DR&D CostsCosts inin SupplySupply ChainChain WithWith TechnologyTechnology AdvancesAdvances
Machine Inputs Carrier and Pressure Control Pad Conditioning Post CMP Clean
Cost Yield Slurry Pads Abrasives Groove Type Particle Size Hardness Distribution Density Hardness
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 29 2012 CMPUG SmallSmall Market,Market, BigBig ConcernsConcerns
• Only a handful of customers 1503 left after consolidation • Market extremely small – Will Equipment, Slurry, and 1600 Pad manufacturers continue ) 1400
M to emphasize R&D? ($
1200 – Will small customer base force suppliers to get out of 1000 Revenue Revenue 90.4 the market? 800 15.8 3.7 – Will HDD and platen 600 manufacturers need to 400 spend more internal R&D on
200 planarization material
0 customization to make up
Slurry for Slurry For Glass Slurry For Metal Slurry for Heads Semiconductors the difference?
Source: The Information Network
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 30 2012 CMPUG ThankThank YouYou
Source: The Information Network
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 31 2012 CMPUG