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In Focus: Minneapolis, MN

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In Focus: Minneapolis, MN In Focus: Minneapolis, MN July 25, 2016 By Tanya J. Pierson Together, Minneapolis—Minnesota’s largest city—and St. Paul—the state capital—comprise Summary the second‐greatest economic landscape in the Midwest, behind only Chicago. The market’s diversity is immense, with economic and hotel demand generators extending from Fortune Major events and tourism 500 companies to international tourism to professional sports franchises. Over the past ten boosted occupancy and years, and despite the fallout from the 2008/09 recession, hotels in the greater Minneapolis‐ average rate in the Twin St. Paul ﴾MSP﴿ market have enjoyed fairly stable occupancy levels in the low‐to‐mid 60s. This Cities in 2015. Hotels stand stability has provided a platform for rising average rates, which have increased significantly in recent years, to benefit from increased largely because of corporate demand generated by 3M, Target, Medtronic, U.S. Bank, Cargill, and Best Buy. The visitation in the years to come, keeping average rates following report details recent economic and hotel market dynamics in Minneapolis‐St. Paul, as well as and property values on the projections for hotel performance and values. rise. Comments FILED UNDER Hotel Market Performance CATEGORIES Overview of Historical Occupancy and Rate Trends Development & Construction The following charts illustrate trends in forecasted hotel occupancy, average rate, and RevPAR for Minneapolis‐St. Valuations & Market Studies Paul from 2016 to 2018. Travel & Tourism Economic Trends and Cycles Occupancy Grew through 2015; Average Rate and RevPAR Forecast to Continue to Rise United States North America MSP’s Occupancy Grew through Average Rate Expected to MSP’s RevPAR on Par with 2015 Increase through 2018 National Level Minnesota Minneapolis Source: HVS Year‐end data for 2013 show a moderate increase in occupancy, due in part to improved commercial and leisure demand to the area, in addition to the completion of much‐needed renovations at many area hotels. Occupancy remained flat in 2014; however, strong demand fueled by three large events in the metro area ﴾the MLB All‐Star Game, the Shriner’s Convention, and the U.S. Junior National Volleyball Championships﴿ allowed hoteliers to push average rate by 6.4% in 2014, the highest growth since the recession. Despite significant layoffs at major employers, including Target and General Mills, data 2015 illustrate a positive trend, with a modest increase in occupancy and rate growth of 1.5% and 4.3%, respectively. Minneapolis‐St. Paul Supply and Demand to Reach Equilibrium in 2016 Source: HVS & STR A significant amount of new supply is expected to enter the market in 2016 and 2017, which will likely have a negative, though minor, impact on market‐wide occupancy. Research shows a moderate amount of unaccommodated demand related to corporate travelers during the midweek period, as well as group and leisure demand during peak summer months. The opening of the new hotels should allow the market to absorb this unaccommodated demand. Existing Supply Breakdown by Brand and Scale Of the six hotel classifications, upper‐upscale and upscale represent the two categories of hotels in Minneapolis that surpass the national market share. However, midscale and economy hotels represent a much lower percentage of the market‐wide total in Minneapolis‐St. Paul when compared to the national average. As with many urban markets, a larger concentration of higher‐rated hotels is expected, and Minneapolis‐St. Paul is no different, given the limited amount of midscale and economy properties. Upper‐Midscale Hotels Constitute the Largest Portion of Rooms in Minneapolis, Similar to the Nation Source: STR New Supply Pipeline Upper‐midscale and upper‐upscale hotels are anticipated to dominate new hotel development in the Minneapolis‐St. Paul area in the coming years, driven by the return of favorable financing, the evolution of new brands, and expanding commercial and leisure demand. This is especially apparent in the downtown and airport cores, which tend to generate demand related to higher‐rated clientele. Developers are taking advantage of the higher rates that these hotels command given the number of travelers to Minneapolis‐St. Paul with the means to pay for a centrally situated, higher‐class hotel of rooms. In addition, several large hotel projects are occurring in conjunction with other major developments, such as the expansion of the Mall of America in Bloomington and upgrades to the Minneapolis‐St. Paul International Airport. The table below reflects an increase of approximately 7,100 rooms, plus proposed properties with an undetermined room count, in addition to the existing supply of 39,416 rooms in the metro area; the table also includes numerous planned projects in the city, representing an approximate supply increase of 18%. Majority of New Hotels are Expected to Open in the Minneapolis Central Business District Source: HVS Downtown Minneapolis, Downtown St. Paul, and Bloomington represent the three submarkets anticipated to receive the largest increase in new supply in the next three years. Minneapolis’s Luxury Hotel Room Inventory set to Increase about 100%; Mid‐Scale Inventory to Stabilize*† Source: HVS, STR and BuildCentral, Inc. * Only includes properties with room counts and class designations † Only the lowest value in the rooms range is considered Lodging Room Supply Expected to Increase 2016–2018 Source: HVS Hotel Valuation Trends The annual HVS Hotel Valuation Index ﴾HVI﴿ compiles data derived from over 4,500 hotel appraisal assignments each year, providing for analysis of performance and forecasts for hotel markets nationwide. The Minneapolis‐St. Paul hotel market achieved annual RevPAR growth of roughly 11% from 2011 through 2013. Market‐wide occupancy surpassed 67% in 2014, and average rate registered over $107 for the same year. Prior to 2014, occupancy in Minneapolis‐St. Paul had not surpassed 67% since 2000, and the city’s average daily rate has never been higher. The HVI also provides insight into hotel values. In 2015, Minneapolis‐St. Paul ranked in the top ten among 65 major U.S. cities in hotel value growth; hotel values in Minneapolis‐St. Paul rose by 12% that year, also outpacing the nation as a whole. Minneapolis‐St. Paul hotel values are anticipated to decline by another 1% in 2016, with a 4% growth rate between 2016 and 2019. The following chart illustrates the trajectory of hotel values in Minneapolis‐St. Paul from 2006 through 2019. Minneapolis‐St. Paul Hotel Values Rise Sharply in 2010 and 2011, with Growth Projected through 2019 Source: HVS & STR Hotel Value Growth Expected to Outpace that of the Nation through 2018 Source: HVS & STR Recent Hotel Transactions The following table details confirmed hotel transactions in the greater Minneapolis‐St. Paul market since 2013. Minneapolis Realizes Highest Number of Major Hotel Sales, Highest Price per Room in the Greater Market Average Price per Room Number of Sales Source: HVS & RCA Source: HVS & RCA While transaction volume softened in 2014, the sales in 2015 indicate a strong pool of buyers in Minneapolis. Although sale prices have averaged nearly $85,000 per room since 2013, pricing is highly dependent on historical operations, location, product type, and if the property was under financial distress. The sales above, which total just over $945 million in transaction volume, include such high‐profile assets as the W Minneapolis ‐ The Foshay, whose estimated price of $86 million was the highest per‐room price paid in the Minneapolis‐St. Paul MSA. Interest among investors remains high and continues to put downward pressure on capitalization rates, particularly in high barrier‐to‐entry submarkets such as Minneapolis and the Bloomington/I‐494 corridor. The high level of investor interest, Minneapolis‐St Paul’s thriving economy, and growing demand generated by the finance, manufacturing, healthcare, and consumer goods sectors support a positive outlook for the city’s hotel industry overall, with values set to rise through 2017. Number of Major U.S. Sales ﴾$10M and above﴿ Average U.S. Key Price Per Room Source: RCA Key Economic Indicators Economic and Demographic Review Famous for its abundance of waterways, as well as its legendary winters, the Minneapolis‐St. Paul MSA is also home to the highest number of Fortune 500 companies per capita in the nation. Flour mills and the timber trade once dominated the area; however, in recent years, the Twin Cities market has flourished into one of the most successful and diverse economies in the country, as illustrated by the plethora of corporate headquarters including 3M, UnitedHealth Group, Target, Best Buy, Cargill, Ecolab, U.S. Bank, and General Mills. Residents are drawn to the area by these diverse employment sectors, along with Minneapolis‐St. Paul’s educational institutions, short commute times, and parks and recreational attractions. These factors result in a high quality of life, and in spite of impediments brought on by harsh winter weather, Minneapolis was voted the healthiest city in the nation by Livibility.com in 2015. Population growth in the Minneapolis‐St. Paul Per‐capita personal income growth in the MSA MSA has been 30% higher than that of the nation matches that of the nation from 2010 to 2016 Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. The U.S. population grew at an average annual compounded rate of 0.9% from 2010 through 2015, and that rate is forecast to continue into 2020. For those same periods, Hennepin County’s population growth lagged behind the country at 0.7%, but the Minneapolis‐St. Paul MSA exceeds the county, state, and nation with a compounded average annual growth rate of 1.2% from 2010 to 2015 and 1.3% into 2020. This growth rate is being spurred, in part, by strong job growth in the Minneapolis‐St. Paul metro area, which will be discussed in more detail later in this report. The average annual compounded growth rate of per‐capita personal income for the county between 2010 and 2015 was 1.4%, versus 1.2% for the nation over the same period.
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